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World Information Technology and
                Communications
       Market Shares, Trends And Forecasts
                     Martin Hingley, Managing Director, ITCandor Limited
                            Contact: Martin_Hingley@Yahoo.co.uk




ITC Analyst Report
Agenda - Market Shares, Trends And Forecasts
                 In World ICT Markets



       •   Methodology
       •   Worldwide ICT by Revenue, Net Profit, Profit Margin, Headcount
       •   Regional ITC by Category
            – Americas
            – EMEA
            – Asia Pacific
       •   EMEA ITC Market Shares
            – IT
                 • Hardware
                 • IT Service
                 • Software
            – Telecom Service
       •   Conclusions – Some Observations on Regional and Category Differences



ITC Analyst Report
Methodology – The ITCandor Market Model




       •   The ITCandor Market Model is based on vendor quarterly financial results
       •   Vendors are chosen on a ‘top-down’ basis as representative of their leadership
           in categories and regions
       •   Categories are chosen as those important to the ITC market
             – Hardware
             – IT service
             – Software
             – Telecom Service
       •   Regions are chosen as representative of world markets
             – Americas
             – Asia Pacific
             – EMEA
       •   Forecasts are produced by looking at trends in previous quarters, knowledge of
           previous market development and economic indicators


ITC Analyst Report
Worldwide - ICT Revenue Growth By Region
                                   2004-2009 Constant Currency (Long View)

                                                                                                       •Asia Pacific has
                   30%                                                                                 under-performed
                                                                                                       other regions since
                                                     Americas                                          2008
                   20%
                                                                                                       •EMEA has been
Revenue Growth %




                                                                                                       under-performing
                   10%                                                                                 other regions in
                                                 Worldwide                                             2006 and 2007
                                                                  EMEA
                                      Asia Pacific
                   0%                                                                                  •The Americas
                                                                                                       out-performed
                                                                                                       otter regions in
             -10%                                                                                      2006 and 2007
                                                                                                       •Constant currency
             -20%                                                                                      views show
                                                                                                       comparative
                            2004          2005          2006          2007          2008        2009   growth by region
             -30%
                   Notes: America and Worldwide ICT in $US, Asia Pacific in Yen and EMEA in €
                   Source: ITCandor
  ITC Analyst Report
Worldwide - ICT Revenue Growth By Region
                                 2004-2009 Constant Currency (Shorter View)

                                                                                            •Worldwide ITC downturn
                   30%                                                                      started with significant
                                   2007                     2008                2009        decline from Q408 onwards

                   20%                                                                      •Asia Pacific has been
                                                         Worldwide                          doing worst of the three
Revenue Growth %




                                                                                            regions over the last three
                   10%                                                                      quarters
                                                                                            •The Americas curve is
                                                                                            shallower than others, but
                    0%                 Americas
                                                                                 EMEA       is beaten by EMEA in
                                                                                            recent quarters
                   -10%                                                                     •EMEA shows a distinct
                                                                                            improvement in Q209, but
                                                                                            is expected to show a
                   -20%
                                                                                            double-dip in Q3
                                                              Asia Pacific

                   -30%
                   Notes: America and Worldwide ICT in $US, Asia Pacific in Yen and EMEA in €
                   Source: ITCandor
  ITC Analyst Report
Worldwide - ITC Revenue by Category and
                 Quarter – 2003-2009 ($US Billion)



                                                                                      •Telecom
 $1,200
                                                                                      Service is by
                                                                                      far the largest
 $1,000                                                                               single category
                                                                                      •IT Service
                                               Telecom Service                        remains above
  $800
                                                                                      the other two
                                                                                      IT categories
  $600
                                                                                      •Software
                                                                                      closes the gap
  $400                                                                                on Hardware,
                                                    IT Service                        but remains
                                       Hardware                                       behind
  $200                                                                                Hardware
                                                                           Software
                                                                                      throughout the
     $0 2003    2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   forecast

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Worldwide – ITC Revenue Growth Forecast
                 by Category – 2003-2013 ($US Billion)



                                                                                      •Strong growth
  50%
                                                                                      in Telecom
                                 Telecom Service
                                                                                      Services in
  40%                                                                                 2006-7 fails to
                                                                                      protect it from
  30%                                                                                 the downturn
                           ITC Total
                                                                                      •Hardware
  20%                                                                                 performs worst
                                                                                      to 2009, but
                                                                          Software
  10%                                                                                 leads us out
                             Hardware
             IT Service                                                               •Software
   0%                                                                                 curve is
                                                                                      shallower, has
 -10%                                                                                 best growth in
                                                                                      2012-13
         2004    2005     2006   2007    2008      2009   2010   2011   2012   2013
 -20%

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Americas – ITC Revenue by Category and
                 Quarter – 2003-2009 ($US Billion)


                                                                           •Market size is
 $300                                                                      very seasonal
                                                                           with Q4 peaks

 $250                                                                      •Telecom Service
                                                                           has out-
                                                  Telecom Service          performed other
 $200                                                                      categories since
                                                                           2006
                                                                           •IT Service is
 $150                                                                      strong (in
                                                       IT Service          comparison with
                                                                           other regions)
 $100
                                     Hardware                              •Software
                                                                           challenges
  $50                               Software                               Hardware from
                                                                           2009
          2003        2004   2005        2006   2007        2008    2009
    $0

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Americas – ITC Revenue Growth by Category
                                  and Quarter – 2003-2009 ($US Billion)


                                                                                             •Very strong
                   70%                                                                       growth –
                                                                                             especially from
                   60%
                                                                                             AT&T in Telecom
                   50%                                                                       Service in 2005-
Revenue Growth %




                                                                                             2007
                                                      Telecom Service
                   40%                                                                       •Software has
                                                                                             been strongest
                   30%
                                                                                             of IT categories
                                                      ITC Total
                   20%                                                                       •Hardware had
                                                                                             poor growth
                   10%                                                          Software     from 2005
                                                         Hardware                            onwards, but will
                   0%
                                                                                             lead us out of
                                         IT Service                                          the downturn
            -10%

            -20%
                           2004       2005        2006            2007   2008         2009
            -30%

                   Source: ITCandor
  ITC Analyst Report
Americas – ITC Revenue Forecast by
                 Category – 2003-2013 ($US Billion)


                                                                                         •2007 and 2008
 $1,200                                                                                  were very strong
                                                                                         •The decline in
 $1,000                                                                                  2008-9 is
                                                    Telecom Service                      significant with
                                                                                         ITC spending
  $800                                                                                   returning to 2005
                                                                                         levels
                                                                                         •Telecom
  $600                                                                                   Services remains
                                                       IT Service                        the largest
                                                                                         category in later
  $400                                                                                   years
                                                    Hardware
                                                                           Software      •Software
  $200                                                                                   challenges - but
                                                                                         does not
                                                                                         overtake -
          2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010     2011   2012   2013   Hardware
     $0

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Americas – ITC Revenue Growth Forecast by
                                Category – 2003-2013 ($US Billion)



                                                                                                     •Strong growth
                   50%
                                                                                                     in Telecom
                                                                                                     Services in
                   40%                             Telecom Service
                                                                                                     2006-7 fails to
Revenue Growth %




                                                                                                     protect it from
                   30%                                                                               the downturn
                                                                                                     •Hardware
                   20%                     ITC Total                                                 performs worst
                                                                                                     to 2009, but
                                                                                          Software   leads us out
                   10%
                                                Hardware                                             •Software
                            IT Service
                   0%                                                                                curve is
                                                                                                     shallower, has
            -10%                                                                                     best growth in
                                                                                                     2012-13
                         2004   2005     2006    2007      2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013
            -20%

                   Source: ITCandor
  ITC Analyst Report
Americas – ITC Net Profit Forecast by
                 Category – 2003-2013 ($US Billion)


                                                                                      •Profit drops
 $80
       2003   2004    2005   2006    2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   out of
                                                                                      Hardware and
 $70
                                               Telecom Service
                                                                                      remains low
                                                                                      throughout
 $60
                        IT Service                                                    latter years
                                                                        Software
 $50                                                                                  •Software and
                                                                                      IT Service
 $40                                                                                  retain high
                                                                                      absolute
 $30                                                                                  profits
                                                                                      throughout
 $20
                                                                                      •Telecom
 $10
                                                                                      Service profits
                                                     Hardware                         drop from
  $0
                                                                                      2008 onwards

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Americas – ITC Headcount Forecast by
                 Category – 2003-2013 (Millions)


                                                                                          •ITC
  3.0
                                                                                          employment
                                                                                          peaks at 6.7
  2.5                                                                                     million in Q408
                                                                     Telecom Service      •Employment
  2.0                               IT Service                                            drops in total
                                                                                          to 5.5 million
                                                                                          by 2013
  1.5
                                                                                          •Hardware
                              Software                                                    employment
  1.0                                                                                     grows while
                                            Hardware
                                                                                          the other
                                                                                          categories
  0.5                                                                                     drop from
                                                                                          2009 onwards
        2003   2004   2005   2006    2007     2008     2009   2010   2011   2012   2013
  0.0

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Asia Pacific – ITC Revenue by Category and
                   Quarter – 2003-2009 (¥Japan Billion)


                                                                              •Market size is
¥35,000                                                                       very seasonal
            2003       2004      2005      2006      2007       2008   2009
                                                                              with a Q1 peak
¥30,000                                                                       •Telecom Service
                                                    Telecom Service           has out-
                                                                              performed other
¥25,000
                                                                              categories since
                                                                              2006
¥20,000
                                                                              •Hardware is by
                                                                              far the strongest
¥15,000                                                                       IT category
                                                                              •IT Service is
¥10,000               Hardware                                                weaker than
                                                   IT Service                 Hardware

  ¥5,000                                                                      •Software
                                        Software                              remains the
                                                                              smallest category
      ¥0

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Asia Pacific – ITC Revenue Growth by Category
                                    and Quarter – 2003-2009 (¥Japan Billion)



                                                                                               •Software has
                   40%                                                                         consistently out
                                                                                               performed other
                   30%                                                                         categories in
                                                  Software                                     most quarters
Revenue Growth %




                   20%                                                                         •Telecom Service
                         Hardware                                     Telecom Service          shows similar
                   10%                                                                         growth to other
                                                                                               categories
                                                   ITC Total
                   0%                                                                          •Hardware has
                                                                                               consistently
                                   IT Service
             -10%                                                                              under-performed
                                                                                               other categories
             -20%                                                                              since the middle
                                                                                               of 2008
             -30%                                                                              •IT Service has
                                                                                               done relatively
                            2004           2005    2006        2007     2008            2009   well over the last
             -40%
                                                                                               year
                   Source: ITCandor
  ITC Analyst Report
Asia Pacific – ITC Revenue Forecast by
                 Category – 2003-2013 (¥Japan Billion)


                                                                       •2007 and 2008
 ¥140,000                                                              were very strong
             2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
                                                                       •The decline in
 ¥120,000                                                              2008-9 is
                                              Telecom Service          significant with
                                                                       ITC spending
 ¥100,000
                                                                       around 2005
                                                                       levels
  ¥80,000
                                                                       •Telecom
                                                                       Services out-
  ¥60,000                                                              performs other
                                                                       categories
                                                                       throughout
  ¥40,000                                     Hardware
                                 IT Service                            •Software
                                                                       continues as the
  ¥20,000                                                              smallest category
                                                            Software

        ¥0

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Asia Pacific – ITC Revenue Growth Forecast
                                      by Category – 2003-2013 (¥Japan Billion)



                                                                                                       •Software
                   30%
                                                                                                       growth has a
                                                                                                       shallower
                                                             Telecom Service                           downturn, but
                   20%
Revenue Growth %




                                                                                         Software      takes longer to
                                                                                                       recover
                   10%
                                                                                                       •Hardware has
                          ITC Total                                                                    the steepest
                    0%                                                                                 fall, but
                                  IT Service                                                           recovers
                                                                                                       fastest in 2010
                   -10%
                                                                                                       •Telecom
                                                                                                       Service stays
                   -20%                                                Hardware                        on a par with
                                                                                                       overall ITC
                           2004       2005     2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   trends
                   -30%

                   Source: ITCandor
  ITC Analyst Report
Asia Pacific – ITC Net Profit Forecast by
                  Category – 2003-2013 (¥Japan Billion)


                                                                                            •Profit drops
  ¥6,000                                                                                    most steeply in
           2003   2004   2005   2006   2007    2008   2009      2010   2011   2012   2013   Hardware, but
                                                                                            (unlike in other
  ¥5,000                                                                                    regions) recovers
                                              Telecom Service                               in 2010

  ¥4,000                                                                                    •Telecom
                                                                                            Service’s high
                                                                                            profits reduce
  ¥3,000                                                                                    and stay low
                                                                              IT Service    •IT Service
                                                                                            becomes the
  ¥2,000                                                                                    most profitable
                                                                                            category from
                                                                                            2010 onwards
  ¥1,000                        Software
                                                                                            •Software profits
                                                      Hardware                              are consistent,
                                                                                            but remain the
      ¥0
                                                                                            smallest category
   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Asia Pacific – ITC Headcount Forecast by
                 Category – 2003-2013 (Millions)


                                                                                           •ITC
  3.0                                                                                      employment
        2003   2004   2005   2006    2007   2008   2009    2010      2011    2012   2013   peaks at 5.4
                                                                                           million in 2008
  2.5
                                                                                           •Employment
                                                           Telecom Service                 drops in total to
                                                                                           4.8 million in
  2.0
                                                                                           2013
                                                                                           •Hardware
  1.5                        IT Service                                     Hardware       employment
                                                                                           grows -
                                                                                           overtakes IT
  1.0                                                                                      Service in 2012
                                                                                           •Telecom Service
                                                                                           loses 390k
  0.5                                                     Software                         employees
                                                                                           between 2005
                                                                                           and 2013
  0.0

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
EMEA – ITC Revenue by Category and
                 Quarter – 2003-2009 (€Euro Billion)


                                                                             •Market size is
 €300                                                                        very seasonal
          2003           2004     2005      2006        2007   2008   2009   with a Q4 peak

 €250                                                                        •Telecom Service
                                                                             peaked in Q1
                                                                             2008 mainly due
                                             Telecom Service                 to Vodafone’s
 €200
                                                                             results
                                                                             •IT Service is
 €150                                                                        clearly the
                                                                             largest IT
                                                                             category
 €100                IT Service
                                                                             •Software closes
                                         Hardware                            the gap, but
                                                                             remains smaller
   €50
                                                                             than Hardware
                                                    Software

    €0

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
EMEA – ITC Revenue Growth by Category
                                  and Quarter – 2009-2013 (€Euro Billion)


                                                                                             •Telecom
                   25%                                                                       revenues show
                   20%                                                                       greater peaks
                                                                     Telecom Service         and troughs than
                   15%                                                                       other categories
Revenue Growth %




                   10%                                                                       •Software has
                                                                                Software     stronger growth
                   5%                                                                        in most quarters
                   0%                      ITC Total                                         •IT Service tends
                                  IT Service                                                 to under-perform
                   -5%                                                                       other categories
                                                                     Hardware
            -10%                                                                             •Hardware and
                                                                                             Software show
            -15%
                                                                                             steepest decline
            -20%                                                                             in 2009

            -25%
                           2004          2005          2006   2007     2008           2009
            -30%

                   Source: ITCandor
  ITC Analyst Report
EMEA – ITC Revenue Forecast by
                  Category – 2003-2013 (€Euro Billion)


                                                                                        •2008 was the
  €1,200                                                                                peak year
                                                                                        •Value in 2010
                                                                                        will be similar to
  €1,000
                                                                                        2005
                                                                                        •Telecom
                                                      Telecom Service
   €800                                                                                 Services remains
                                                                                        the largest
                                                                                        category in later
   €600                                                                                 years
                                                                                        •IT Service is
              IT Service                                                                consistently the
   €400
                                                                                        strongest IT
                                                       Hardware                         category
   €200                                                                                 •Software closes
                                                                          Software      the gap - but
           2003      2004   2005 2006   2007   2008    2009   2010 2011   2012   2013   does not
     €0                                                                                 overtake -
                                                                                        Hardware
   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
EMEA – ITC Revenue Growth Forecast by
                                  Category – 2003-2013 (€Euro Billion)


                                                                                                     •Software has
                   20%                                                                               the strongest
                                                                                                     growth, except
                   15%                                                                    Software   for in the
                                                                                                     recovery period
Revenue Growth %




                                                             ITC Total                               2010-2011
                   10%
                                                                                                     •Hardware’s
                    5%           Telecom Service                                                     decline is
                                                                                                     steepest, but
                                              IT Service
                                                                                                     out-strips other
                    0%
                                                                                                     categories in the
                                                                                                     recovery
                   -5%
                                                                                                     •IT Service
                                                                                                     shows the same
                   -10%
                                                                                                     growth as overall
                                                                     Hardware                        ITC
                   -15%
                          2004    2005    2006   2007      2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013
                   -20%

                   Source: ITCandor
  ITC Analyst Report
EMEA – ITC Net Profit Forecast by
                 Category – 2003-2013 (€Euro Billion)


                                                                                       •Hardware profit
  €140                                                                                 drop and
         2003   2004   2005   2006   2007    2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013
                                                                                       remains low
                                                                                       between 2009
  €120
                                                Telecom Service                        and 2013
                                                                                       •Software profits
  €100
                                                                                       remain the most
                                                                                       consistent of
   €80                                                                                 categories
                                                                                       •IT Service
   €60                                                                                 profits take over
                                                                                       from Telecom
                                                                                       Service in 2012
   €40                                      IT Service
                                                                                       •Telecom Service
                                                                                       profits drop from
   €20                                                            Software             2008 onwards
                                                                         Hardware
    €0

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
EMEA – ITC Headcount Forecast by
                 Category – 2003-2013 (Millions)


                                                                                           •ITC
 4.5                                                                                       employment
                                                                                           drops from a
 4.0                                                                                       peak of 8.3
                                             Telecom Service
                                                                                           million in 2007 to
 3.5                                                                                       7.0 million in
                                                                                           2013
 3.0
                                                                                           •Hardware
 2.5                                                                                       overtakes
                                           IT Service                                      Software in 2009
 2.0                                                                                       •Telecom Service
                                                                                           remains by far
 1.5                                                                                       the largest
                                                                                           employer in
                                                                  Hardware
 1.0                                                                                       EMEA
                                                                         Software          •IT Service loses
 0.5
                                                                                           800k employees
       2003   2004    2005   2006   2007    2008    2009   2010   2011    2012      2013   between 2007
 0.0
                                                                                           and 2013
   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Worldwide Market Shares – All ITC – Year to
                 Q208 and Q209 ($US Trillions)


                      AT&T    IBM    DT                      AT&T    IBM    DT
                  HP 1.7%    1.5%   1.3%                 HP 1.6%    1.5%   1.3%
                 1.9%                      Telefonica   1.7%                      Telefonica
                                             1.3%                                   1.2%

                                            Vodafone                               Vodafone
                                              1.1%                                   1.3%
                                               Sony                                    Sony
                                               1.1%                                    1.1%




                Others                                  Others
                90.1%                                   90.4%



                Total: $6.68T                           Total: $6.17T

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Worldwide Market Shares – Hardware –
                 Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Trillions)


                        HP                                        HP
                       7.3%                                      7.4%
                              Samsung                                   Samsung
                                6.0%                                      5.7%
                                    Nokia                                      Nokia
                                    6.6%                                       5.7%

                                                                                    Sony
                                          Sony
                                                                                    5.6%
                                          5.5%
                                                                                     Dell
                                           Dell
                                                                                    4.4%
                                          4.4%
        Others                                                                   Hitachi
                                        Hitachi   Others
        64.1%                                                                     3.5%
                                         3.3%     64.9%
                                Cisco                                       Cisco
                                2.7%                                        2.8%




                 Total: $1.22T                             Total: $1.07T

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Worldwide Market Shares – IT Service –
                 Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Trillions)

                             HP    Siemens                                 HP
                                                                                 Siemens
                      IBM   1.3%     2.7% Google                    IBM   2.5%
                                                                                   2.1% Google
                     4.0%                                          4.1%
                                           1.3%                                          1.6%
                                              AT&T
                                                                                             AT&T
                                              1.4%
                                                                                             1.5%
                                              Amazon
                                                                                             Amazon
                                               1.2%
                                                                                              1.5%
                                                Fujitsu
                                                 1.2%                                         Fujitsu
                                                                                               1.4%




               Others                                     Others
               86.9%                                      85.2%




                Total: $1.47T                               Total: $1.39T

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Worldwide Market Shares – Software –
                  Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Billions)

                                                                                  Accenture
                                 Accenture
                     Microsoft     3.5% IBM                           Microsoft      3.6%      IBM
                       4.2%                3.1%                         4.1%                  3.2%
                                                  Oracle                                             Oracle
                                                  2.7%                                               2.9%
                                                      Symantec
                                                         0.9%                                            Symantec
                                                     SAP                                                   0.8%
                                                    0.8%                                                   SAP
                                                                                                           0.6%

                                                      CA                                                  CA
                                                     0.6%                                                0.6%




              Others                                             Others
              84.1%                                              84.1%




                 Total: $661B                                       Total: $645B

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Worldwide Market Shares – Telecom Service –
                  Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Trillions)

                                        DT
                            Telefonica                                       Telefonica DT
                                       2.1%
                     AT&T     2.4%                                    AT&T     2.5% 2.3%
                                              Vodafone                                       Vodafone
                     2.5%                       2.4%                  2.7%                     2.0%
                                                      FT                                             FT
                                                     1.8%                                           1.8%
                                                     Tel Italia                                    Tel Italia
                                                      1.3%                                          1.3%

                                                         Sprint                                       Sprint
                                                         1.2%                                         1.1%




               Others                                             Others
               86.2%                                              86.2%




                 Total: $3.33T                                      Total: $3.06T

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Americas Market Shares – All ITC – Year
                 to Q208 and Q209 ($US Trillions)

                             HP                                              HP
                                    IBM                                             IBM
                     AT&T   2.1%          Sprint                     AT&T   2.4%
                                   1.9%                                            2.0%   Sprint
                     3.8%                 1.7%                       4.0%
                                                                                          1.6%
                                                Dell                                                Dell
                                               1.7%                                                1.5%

                                                   Telefonica                                      Telefonica
                                                     1.4%                                            1.5%
                                                    Apple
                                                                                                    Apple
                                                     0.8%
                                                                                                    1.0%




               Others                                           Others
               86.6%                                            86.0%




                 Total: $2.21T                                    Total: $2.09T

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Americas Market Shares – Hardware –
                 Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Billions)


                       HP                                      HP
                      9.8%                                    10.2%
                                 Dell                                     Dell
                                9.2%                                     8.5%


                                   Apple                                    Apple
                                   4.1%                                     5.1%
                                        Sony                                     Sony
                                        4.5%                                     4.4%
                                   Samsung                                   Samsung
       Others                        4.7%      Others
       62.2%                                   62.0%                           4.4%
                                  Cisco                                    Cisco
                                  2.8%                                     3.0%
                             Canon                                    Canon
                             2.7%                                     2.5%




                Total: $369B                            Total: $334B

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Americas Market Shares – IT Service –
                  Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Billions)

                              AT&T                                          AT&T
                        IBM           HP                              IBM   3.2%    HP
                              2.8%
                       4.4%          1.4%   Amazon                   4.6%          2.8%
                                             1.6%                                         Amazon
                                                 Google                                    2.0%
                                                  1.7%                                        Google
                                                 CSC                                           2.0%
                                                 1.8%                                       CSC
                                                                                            1.9%

                                                  Siemens
                                                    1.8%
                                                                                             Siemens
                                                                                               1.5%




              Others                                        Others
              84.4%                                         82.0%




                 Total: $574B                                   Total: $539B

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Americas Market Shares – Software –
                  Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Billions)

                                 Accenture                                        Accenture
                     Microsoft     3.2% Oracle                        Microsoft     3.4% Oracle
                       4.1%                3.0%                         3.8%              3.2%
                                                   IBM                                             IBM
                                                  2.9%                                            3.0%
                                                      Symantec                                         Symantec
                                                        1.0%                                             1.0%
                                                      CA
                                                     0.7%                                                 CA
                                                                                                         0.7%
                                                     EMC                                              EMC
                                                     0.7%                                             0.6%




              Others                                             Others
              84.4%                                              84.3%




                 Total: $303B                                       Total: $302B

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Americas Market Shares – Telecom Service –
                 Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Billions)


                      AT&T   Sprint                                     AT&T   Sprint
                      7.0%   4.0%                                       7.3%   3.7%
                                      Telefonica                                        Telefonica
                                        3.1%                                              3.3%
                                               DT                                                 DT
                                              1.7%                                               1.7%
                                                  Tel Italia                                        Tel Italia
                                                    0.9%                                             0.7%
                                               Vodafone                                          Vodafone
                                                 0.7%                                              0.5%

                                              BT                                                BT
                                             0.2%                                              0.2%




             Others                                            Others
             82.5%                                             82.6%




                 Total: $960B                                      Total: $915B

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Asia Pacific Market Shares – All ITC –
                 Year to Q208 and Q209 (¥Japan Trillions)

                      Hitachi Fujitsu   China Tel                AT&T    IBM    DT
                 Sony 1.9%     1.6%       1.3%            HP     1.7%   1.5%   1.3%
                 1.9%                         Samsung    1.9%                         Telefonica
                                                1.7%                                    1.3%

                                               Nokia                                   Vodafone
                                               1.4%                                      1.1%
                                                                                          Sony
                                                  IBM
                                                                                          1.1%
                                                 1.1%




                Others                                  Others
                89.2%                                   90.1%




                Total: ¥212T                            Total: ¥179T

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Asia Pacific Market Shares – Hardware –
                 Year to Q208 and Q209 (¥Japan Trillions)


                      Sony                                    Sony
                      7.6%                                    7.9%
                             Hitachi                                 Hitachi
                              7.7%                                    7.7%

                                    Samsung                                 Samsung
                                      7.5%                                    7.2%


                                       Nokia                                   Nokia
                                       6.4%                                    5.7%
       Others                                  Others                          Toshiba
       58.9%                         Toshiba
                                               59.7%                            4.6%
                                       4.3%
                                  Fujitsu                                Fujitsu
                                   3.8%                                   3.7%
                              HP                                      HP
                             3.7%                                    3.5%




                Total: ¥47.7T                           Total: ¥37.5T

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Asia Pacific Market Shares – IT Service –
                  Year to Q208 and Q209 (¥Japan Trillions)

                                 IBM                                            IBM
                      Fujitsu        China Tel                       Fujitsu        China Tel
                                4.6%                                           4.5%
                       5.1%            1.9%                           5.4%            2.3%
                                              HP
                                                                                                 HP
                                             1.3%
                                                                                                2.1%
                                                 NTT
                                                2.2%                                                NTT
                                                                                                   2.0%
                                                   Google
                                                    1.4%                                           Google
                                                                                                    1.9%
                                                 Siemens
                                                   1.8%                                         Siemens
                                                                                                  1.6%




             Others                                         Others
             81.6%                                          80.1%




                 Total: ¥29T                                     Total: ¥27T

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Asia Pacific Market Shares – Software –
                 Year to Q208 and Q209 (¥Japan Trillions)


                             Microsoft                                      Microsoft
                                                                                      Oracle
                       IBM     4.6% Oracle                            IBM     4.4%
                                       2.7%                          4.6%             2.8%
                      4.5%                                                                     Accenture
                                              Accenture
                                                                                                 2.4%
                                                2.2%
                                                                                                   Symantec
                                                 Symantec                                            1.0%
                                                   0.8%
                                                HP                                                  HP
                                               0.6%                                                0.6%
                                               CA                                                CA
                                              0.7%                                              0.6%




             Others                                         Others
             83.8%                                          83.5%




                Total: ¥10.5T                                  Total: ¥9.6T

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Asia Pacific Market Shares – Telecom Service
                 – Year to Q208 and Q209 (¥Japan Trillions)

                              Vodafone                                  Vodafone
                       Telstra 0.7% AT&T                         Telstra 0.8% AT&T
                                              NTT                                       NTT
                         1.8%          0.4%                        1.6%          0.4%
               China Tel                     0.3%        China Tel                     0.4%
                 1.8%                       Tel Italia     2.1%                       Tel Italia
                                             0.1%                                      0.1%

                                               DT                                        DT
                                              0.0%                                      0.0%




                      Others                                  Others
                      95.0%                                   94.6%



                Total: ¥125T                             Total: ¥104T

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
EMEA Market Shares – All ITC – Year to
                 Q208 and Q209 (€Euro Trillions)

                             DT                                           DT
                                   Vodafone                                     Vodafone
                      FT    2.5%                                   FT    2.8%
                                     2.8% Telefonica                              2.3% Telefonica
                     2.8%                                         2.9%
                                             2.1%                                         2.1%
                                                 HP                                           HP
                                                1.8%                                         2.1%

                                                 IBM                                           IBM
                                                1.5%                                          1.5%

                                                 Tel Italia                                    Tel Italia
                                                  1.4%                                          1.4%




              Others                                          Others
              85.2%                                           85.0%




                Total: €1.73T                                    Total: €1.66T

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
EMEA Market Shares – Hardware – Year
                   to Q208 and Q209 (€Euro Billions)


                        HP                                         HP
                       6.1%                                       6.4%
                              Nokia                                      Nokia
                              6.9%                                       6.3%
                                      Samsung                                    Samsung
                                        3.8%                                       3.9%
                                        Cisco                                      Cisco
                                         2.9%                                      3.2%
                                              Sony                                         Sony
                                              2.9%                                         3.2%
                                           Dell
                                                                                      Dell
                                          2.1%
                                                                                     2.5%
                                         Apple
                                         1.4%                                      Apple
                                                                                   1.9%

          Others                                     Others
          73.9%                                      72.5%




                   Total: €415B                               Total: €358B

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
EMEA Market Shares – IT Service – Year
                 to Q208 and Q209 (€Euro Billions)

                            Siemens HP                               Siemens HP
                              2.6% 0.9%    BT                          2.1% 1.8%    BT
                      IBM                                      IBM
                                          1.3% FT                                  1.4%
                     2.4%                                     2.6%                         FT
                                              1.1%                                        1.2%

                                               Cap Gemini                                  Cap Gemini
                                                  1.1%                                        1.2%
                                                   DT
                                                                                               DT
                                                 1.2%
                                                                                             1.1%




                Others                                      Others
                89.4%                                       88.6%




                Total: €637B                                 Total: €576B

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
EMEA Market Shares – Software – Year
                 to Q208 and Q209 (€Euro Billions)

                          Microsoft                                Microsoft
                                    IBM                                       IBM
                 Accenture 2.9% 2.0%      Oracle          Accenture 3.1%
                   3.0%                                     3.3%             2.2%   Oracle
                                          1.6%                                      1.9%
                                               SAP
                                                                                         SAP
                                               0.7%
                                                                                         0.7%
                                             Symantec
                                                                                              Symantec
                                               0.5%
                                                                                                0.4%
                                                  HP                                        HP
                                                 0.4%                                      0.4%




                Others                                  Others
                88.9%                                   88.0%




                 Total: €253B                            Total: €245B

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
EMEA Market Shares – Telecom Service –
                 Year to Q208 and Q209 (€Euro Trillions)

                              DT    Vodafone                                      DT    Vodafone
                       FT    2.9%     3.7%                                 FT    3.6%     3.3%
                      3.3%                                                3.7%
                                               Telefonica                                      Telefonica
                                                 2.8%                                            3.1%
                                                    Tel Italia
                                                     1.9%                                             Tel Italia
                                                                                                       2.2%
                                                   BT
                                                  1.1%                                              BT
                                                                                                   1.0%
                                                   AT&T
                                                   0.7%                                            AT&T
                                                                                                   0.8%




             Others                                              Others
             83.5%                                               82.3%




                Total: €1.23T                                        Total: €1.09T

   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Worldwide Major ITC Vendor Revenue
                 Evolution – Rolling 4Qs ($US Billions)


                                                                       •HP (including
 $140
                                                                       EDS revenues
                                                      HP*              historically)
                                                                       heads the ITC
 $120
                                                                       market
                                                              AT&T     •AT&T and other
 $100                                                                  Telecom Service
                                                                       suppliers have
                                   IBM
                                                                       grown strongly
  $80                                                                  •IBM and
               Deutsche Telekom
                                                                       Samsung have
                                                                       grown relatively
  $60                                                        Samsung   slowly
                                           Vodafone
  $40

                      Telefonica
  $20
               2004         2005    2006    2007      2008      2009
   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Americas Major ITC Vendor Revenue
                 Evolution – Rolling 4Qs ($US Billions)


                                                                             •AT&T’s US focus
 $90
                                                                             makes it head of
                                                                    AT&T     ITC market in
 $80
                                                                             the Americas
 $70                                                                         •The strength of
                                                                             the IT market
 $60                                                                         gives HP and
                                                                             IBM 2nd and 3rd
                      HP*                                                    places
 $50
                                                               IBM
                                                                             •Telefonica and
 $40
                                                                             Sprint have
                                       Dell                                  grown faster
 $30                                                           Telefonica
                                                                             than IT
                       Sprint                                                specialists
 $20
                                                                             •Apple shows
                                                     Apple
 $10                                                                         significant
                                                                             growth
  $0
              2004     2005     2006          2007           2008     2009
   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Asia Pacific Major ITC Vendor Revenue
                 Evolution – Rolling 4Qs (¥ Japan Billions)


                                                                                 •Sony heads the
 ¥4,000
                                                                                 Asia Pacific ITC
                                                                Samsung          market (just)
                             Hitachi
 ¥3,500                                           Sony                           •Hitachi,
                                                                                 Samsung and
 ¥3,000                                                                          Fujitsu suffer in
                            Fujitsu
                                                                                 the downturn

 ¥2,500                                                                          •IBM’s revenues
                                                                                 show slower
                                                                  IBM            growth
 ¥2,000
                     China Telecom                                               •Nokia and
                                                                                 China Telecom
 ¥1,500                                                                          show strong
                                       Nokia                                     growth in recent
                                                                                 years
 ¥1,000


  ¥500
               2004           2005         2006          2007      2008   2009
   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
EMEA Major ITC Vendor Revenue
                 Evolution – Rolling 4Qs (€Euro Billions)


                                                                           •Telecom
  €55
                                                                           Service suppliers
                                                                           are the most
  €50                                                                      important ITC
                                      France Telecom                       leaders
  €45     Deutsche Telekom                                                 •HP and IBM are
                                                                           the only IT
                                                                           suppliers among
  €40                                                                      the top
                                            Telefonica                     companies
  €35                                                                      •Vodafone has
                                                 Vodafone                  demonstrated
          HP*                                                              the most
  €30
                                                                           dynamic growth
                                                              IBM          (and decline)
  €25
                                Telecom Italia
  €20
              2004       2005      2006            2007     2008    2009
   Source: ITCandor
ITC Analyst Report
Conclusions – Some Observations on Regional
                 and Category Differences



       •   Telecom Service vendors dominate EMEA ITC leadership positions
       •   Hardware is vastly more important in Asia Pacific
       •   Quarterly Revenue peaks differ – Q1 in Asia Pacific, Q4 in EMEA and
           the Americas
       •   Software is more important in the Americas
       •   IT Services is stronger in EMEA and the Americas
       •   Hardware has the least vendors, Software and IT Service the most
       •   Telecom Service is the most localised – its vendors are usually stronger
           than the biggest IT vendors in their region
       •   Although all categories and regions are experiencing the downturn at
           different rates, all are severely affected
       •   ITCandor is forecasting a relatively fast upturn, led by Hardware
           spending


ITC Analyst Report

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ITC Forecast and Review 2009

  • 1. World Information Technology and Communications Market Shares, Trends And Forecasts Martin Hingley, Managing Director, ITCandor Limited Contact: Martin_Hingley@Yahoo.co.uk ITC Analyst Report
  • 2. Agenda - Market Shares, Trends And Forecasts In World ICT Markets • Methodology • Worldwide ICT by Revenue, Net Profit, Profit Margin, Headcount • Regional ITC by Category – Americas – EMEA – Asia Pacific • EMEA ITC Market Shares – IT • Hardware • IT Service • Software – Telecom Service • Conclusions – Some Observations on Regional and Category Differences ITC Analyst Report
  • 3. Methodology – The ITCandor Market Model • The ITCandor Market Model is based on vendor quarterly financial results • Vendors are chosen on a ‘top-down’ basis as representative of their leadership in categories and regions • Categories are chosen as those important to the ITC market – Hardware – IT service – Software – Telecom Service • Regions are chosen as representative of world markets – Americas – Asia Pacific – EMEA • Forecasts are produced by looking at trends in previous quarters, knowledge of previous market development and economic indicators ITC Analyst Report
  • 4. Worldwide - ICT Revenue Growth By Region 2004-2009 Constant Currency (Long View) •Asia Pacific has 30% under-performed other regions since Americas 2008 20% •EMEA has been Revenue Growth % under-performing 10% other regions in Worldwide 2006 and 2007 EMEA Asia Pacific 0% •The Americas out-performed otter regions in -10% 2006 and 2007 •Constant currency -20% views show comparative 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 growth by region -30% Notes: America and Worldwide ICT in $US, Asia Pacific in Yen and EMEA in € Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 5. Worldwide - ICT Revenue Growth By Region 2004-2009 Constant Currency (Shorter View) •Worldwide ITC downturn 30% started with significant 2007 2008 2009 decline from Q408 onwards 20% •Asia Pacific has been Worldwide doing worst of the three Revenue Growth % regions over the last three 10% quarters •The Americas curve is shallower than others, but 0% Americas EMEA is beaten by EMEA in recent quarters -10% •EMEA shows a distinct improvement in Q209, but is expected to show a -20% double-dip in Q3 Asia Pacific -30% Notes: America and Worldwide ICT in $US, Asia Pacific in Yen and EMEA in € Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 6. Worldwide - ITC Revenue by Category and Quarter – 2003-2009 ($US Billion) •Telecom $1,200 Service is by far the largest $1,000 single category •IT Service Telecom Service remains above $800 the other two IT categories $600 •Software closes the gap $400 on Hardware, IT Service but remains Hardware behind $200 Hardware Software throughout the $0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 forecast Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 7. Worldwide – ITC Revenue Growth Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 ($US Billion) •Strong growth 50% in Telecom Telecom Service Services in 40% 2006-7 fails to protect it from 30% the downturn ITC Total •Hardware 20% performs worst to 2009, but Software 10% leads us out Hardware IT Service •Software 0% curve is shallower, has -10% best growth in 2012-13 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -20% Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 8. Americas – ITC Revenue by Category and Quarter – 2003-2009 ($US Billion) •Market size is $300 very seasonal with Q4 peaks $250 •Telecom Service has out- Telecom Service performed other $200 categories since 2006 •IT Service is $150 strong (in IT Service comparison with other regions) $100 Hardware •Software challenges $50 Software Hardware from 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 $0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 9. Americas – ITC Revenue Growth by Category and Quarter – 2003-2009 ($US Billion) •Very strong 70% growth – especially from 60% AT&T in Telecom 50% Service in 2005- Revenue Growth % 2007 Telecom Service 40% •Software has been strongest 30% of IT categories ITC Total 20% •Hardware had poor growth 10% Software from 2005 Hardware onwards, but will 0% lead us out of IT Service the downturn -10% -20% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -30% Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 10. Americas – ITC Revenue Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 ($US Billion) •2007 and 2008 $1,200 were very strong •The decline in $1,000 2008-9 is Telecom Service significant with ITC spending $800 returning to 2005 levels •Telecom $600 Services remains IT Service the largest category in later $400 years Hardware Software •Software $200 challenges - but does not overtake - 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Hardware $0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 11. Americas – ITC Revenue Growth Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 ($US Billion) •Strong growth 50% in Telecom Services in 40% Telecom Service 2006-7 fails to Revenue Growth % protect it from 30% the downturn •Hardware 20% ITC Total performs worst to 2009, but Software leads us out 10% Hardware •Software IT Service 0% curve is shallower, has -10% best growth in 2012-13 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -20% Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 12. Americas – ITC Net Profit Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 ($US Billion) •Profit drops $80 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 out of Hardware and $70 Telecom Service remains low throughout $60 IT Service latter years Software $50 •Software and IT Service $40 retain high absolute $30 profits throughout $20 •Telecom $10 Service profits Hardware drop from $0 2008 onwards Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 13. Americas – ITC Headcount Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (Millions) •ITC 3.0 employment peaks at 6.7 2.5 million in Q408 Telecom Service •Employment 2.0 IT Service drops in total to 5.5 million by 2013 1.5 •Hardware Software employment 1.0 grows while Hardware the other categories 0.5 drop from 2009 onwards 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 14. Asia Pacific – ITC Revenue by Category and Quarter – 2003-2009 (¥Japan Billion) •Market size is ¥35,000 very seasonal 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 with a Q1 peak ¥30,000 •Telecom Service Telecom Service has out- performed other ¥25,000 categories since 2006 ¥20,000 •Hardware is by far the strongest ¥15,000 IT category •IT Service is ¥10,000 Hardware weaker than IT Service Hardware ¥5,000 •Software Software remains the smallest category ¥0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 15. Asia Pacific – ITC Revenue Growth by Category and Quarter – 2003-2009 (¥Japan Billion) •Software has 40% consistently out performed other 30% categories in Software most quarters Revenue Growth % 20% •Telecom Service Hardware Telecom Service shows similar 10% growth to other categories ITC Total 0% •Hardware has consistently IT Service -10% under-performed other categories -20% since the middle of 2008 -30% •IT Service has done relatively 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 well over the last -40% year Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 16. Asia Pacific – ITC Revenue Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (¥Japan Billion) •2007 and 2008 ¥140,000 were very strong 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 •The decline in ¥120,000 2008-9 is Telecom Service significant with ITC spending ¥100,000 around 2005 levels ¥80,000 •Telecom Services out- ¥60,000 performs other categories throughout ¥40,000 Hardware IT Service •Software continues as the ¥20,000 smallest category Software ¥0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 17. Asia Pacific – ITC Revenue Growth Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (¥Japan Billion) •Software 30% growth has a shallower Telecom Service downturn, but 20% Revenue Growth % Software takes longer to recover 10% •Hardware has ITC Total the steepest 0% fall, but IT Service recovers fastest in 2010 -10% •Telecom Service stays -20% Hardware on a par with overall ITC 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 trends -30% Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 18. Asia Pacific – ITC Net Profit Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (¥Japan Billion) •Profit drops ¥6,000 most steeply in 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Hardware, but (unlike in other ¥5,000 regions) recovers Telecom Service in 2010 ¥4,000 •Telecom Service’s high profits reduce ¥3,000 and stay low IT Service •IT Service becomes the ¥2,000 most profitable category from 2010 onwards ¥1,000 Software •Software profits Hardware are consistent, but remain the ¥0 smallest category Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 19. Asia Pacific – ITC Headcount Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (Millions) •ITC 3.0 employment 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 peaks at 5.4 million in 2008 2.5 •Employment Telecom Service drops in total to 4.8 million in 2.0 2013 •Hardware 1.5 IT Service Hardware employment grows - overtakes IT 1.0 Service in 2012 •Telecom Service loses 390k 0.5 Software employees between 2005 and 2013 0.0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 20. EMEA – ITC Revenue by Category and Quarter – 2003-2009 (€Euro Billion) •Market size is €300 very seasonal 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 with a Q4 peak €250 •Telecom Service peaked in Q1 2008 mainly due Telecom Service to Vodafone’s €200 results •IT Service is €150 clearly the largest IT category €100 IT Service •Software closes Hardware the gap, but remains smaller €50 than Hardware Software €0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 21. EMEA – ITC Revenue Growth by Category and Quarter – 2009-2013 (€Euro Billion) •Telecom 25% revenues show 20% greater peaks Telecom Service and troughs than 15% other categories Revenue Growth % 10% •Software has Software stronger growth 5% in most quarters 0% ITC Total •IT Service tends IT Service to under-perform -5% other categories Hardware -10% •Hardware and Software show -15% steepest decline -20% in 2009 -25% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -30% Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 22. EMEA – ITC Revenue Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (€Euro Billion) •2008 was the €1,200 peak year •Value in 2010 will be similar to €1,000 2005 •Telecom Telecom Service €800 Services remains the largest category in later €600 years •IT Service is IT Service consistently the €400 strongest IT Hardware category €200 •Software closes Software the gap - but 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 does not €0 overtake - Hardware Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 23. EMEA – ITC Revenue Growth Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (€Euro Billion) •Software has 20% the strongest growth, except 15% Software for in the recovery period Revenue Growth % ITC Total 2010-2011 10% •Hardware’s 5% Telecom Service decline is steepest, but IT Service out-strips other 0% categories in the recovery -5% •IT Service shows the same -10% growth as overall Hardware ITC -15% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -20% Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 24. EMEA – ITC Net Profit Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (€Euro Billion) •Hardware profit €140 drop and 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 remains low between 2009 €120 Telecom Service and 2013 •Software profits €100 remain the most consistent of €80 categories •IT Service €60 profits take over from Telecom Service in 2012 €40 IT Service •Telecom Service profits drop from €20 Software 2008 onwards Hardware €0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 25. EMEA – ITC Headcount Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (Millions) •ITC 4.5 employment drops from a 4.0 peak of 8.3 Telecom Service million in 2007 to 3.5 7.0 million in 2013 3.0 •Hardware 2.5 overtakes IT Service Software in 2009 2.0 •Telecom Service remains by far 1.5 the largest employer in Hardware 1.0 EMEA Software •IT Service loses 0.5 800k employees 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 between 2007 0.0 and 2013 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 26. Worldwide Market Shares – All ITC – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Trillions) AT&T IBM DT AT&T IBM DT HP 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% HP 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.9% Telefonica 1.7% Telefonica 1.3% 1.2% Vodafone Vodafone 1.1% 1.3% Sony Sony 1.1% 1.1% Others Others 90.1% 90.4% Total: $6.68T Total: $6.17T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 27. Worldwide Market Shares – Hardware – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Trillions) HP HP 7.3% 7.4% Samsung Samsung 6.0% 5.7% Nokia Nokia 6.6% 5.7% Sony Sony 5.6% 5.5% Dell Dell 4.4% 4.4% Others Hitachi Hitachi Others 64.1% 3.5% 3.3% 64.9% Cisco Cisco 2.7% 2.8% Total: $1.22T Total: $1.07T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 28. Worldwide Market Shares – IT Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Trillions) HP Siemens HP Siemens IBM 1.3% 2.7% Google IBM 2.5% 2.1% Google 4.0% 4.1% 1.3% 1.6% AT&T AT&T 1.4% 1.5% Amazon Amazon 1.2% 1.5% Fujitsu 1.2% Fujitsu 1.4% Others Others 86.9% 85.2% Total: $1.47T Total: $1.39T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 29. Worldwide Market Shares – Software – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Billions) Accenture Accenture Microsoft 3.5% IBM Microsoft 3.6% IBM 4.2% 3.1% 4.1% 3.2% Oracle Oracle 2.7% 2.9% Symantec 0.9% Symantec SAP 0.8% 0.8% SAP 0.6% CA CA 0.6% 0.6% Others Others 84.1% 84.1% Total: $661B Total: $645B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 30. Worldwide Market Shares – Telecom Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Trillions) DT Telefonica Telefonica DT 2.1% AT&T 2.4% AT&T 2.5% 2.3% Vodafone Vodafone 2.5% 2.4% 2.7% 2.0% FT FT 1.8% 1.8% Tel Italia Tel Italia 1.3% 1.3% Sprint Sprint 1.2% 1.1% Others Others 86.2% 86.2% Total: $3.33T Total: $3.06T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 31. Americas Market Shares – All ITC – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Trillions) HP HP IBM IBM AT&T 2.1% Sprint AT&T 2.4% 1.9% 2.0% Sprint 3.8% 1.7% 4.0% 1.6% Dell Dell 1.7% 1.5% Telefonica Telefonica 1.4% 1.5% Apple Apple 0.8% 1.0% Others Others 86.6% 86.0% Total: $2.21T Total: $2.09T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 32. Americas Market Shares – Hardware – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Billions) HP HP 9.8% 10.2% Dell Dell 9.2% 8.5% Apple Apple 4.1% 5.1% Sony Sony 4.5% 4.4% Samsung Samsung Others 4.7% Others 62.2% 62.0% 4.4% Cisco Cisco 2.8% 3.0% Canon Canon 2.7% 2.5% Total: $369B Total: $334B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 33. Americas Market Shares – IT Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Billions) AT&T AT&T IBM HP IBM 3.2% HP 2.8% 4.4% 1.4% Amazon 4.6% 2.8% 1.6% Amazon Google 2.0% 1.7% Google CSC 2.0% 1.8% CSC 1.9% Siemens 1.8% Siemens 1.5% Others Others 84.4% 82.0% Total: $574B Total: $539B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 34. Americas Market Shares – Software – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Billions) Accenture Accenture Microsoft 3.2% Oracle Microsoft 3.4% Oracle 4.1% 3.0% 3.8% 3.2% IBM IBM 2.9% 3.0% Symantec Symantec 1.0% 1.0% CA 0.7% CA 0.7% EMC EMC 0.7% 0.6% Others Others 84.4% 84.3% Total: $303B Total: $302B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 35. Americas Market Shares – Telecom Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Billions) AT&T Sprint AT&T Sprint 7.0% 4.0% 7.3% 3.7% Telefonica Telefonica 3.1% 3.3% DT DT 1.7% 1.7% Tel Italia Tel Italia 0.9% 0.7% Vodafone Vodafone 0.7% 0.5% BT BT 0.2% 0.2% Others Others 82.5% 82.6% Total: $960B Total: $915B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 36. Asia Pacific Market Shares – All ITC – Year to Q208 and Q209 (¥Japan Trillions) Hitachi Fujitsu China Tel AT&T IBM DT Sony 1.9% 1.6% 1.3% HP 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.9% Samsung 1.9% Telefonica 1.7% 1.3% Nokia Vodafone 1.4% 1.1% Sony IBM 1.1% 1.1% Others Others 89.2% 90.1% Total: ¥212T Total: ¥179T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 37. Asia Pacific Market Shares – Hardware – Year to Q208 and Q209 (¥Japan Trillions) Sony Sony 7.6% 7.9% Hitachi Hitachi 7.7% 7.7% Samsung Samsung 7.5% 7.2% Nokia Nokia 6.4% 5.7% Others Others Toshiba 58.9% Toshiba 59.7% 4.6% 4.3% Fujitsu Fujitsu 3.8% 3.7% HP HP 3.7% 3.5% Total: ¥47.7T Total: ¥37.5T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 38. Asia Pacific Market Shares – IT Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 (¥Japan Trillions) IBM IBM Fujitsu China Tel Fujitsu China Tel 4.6% 4.5% 5.1% 1.9% 5.4% 2.3% HP HP 1.3% 2.1% NTT 2.2% NTT 2.0% Google 1.4% Google 1.9% Siemens 1.8% Siemens 1.6% Others Others 81.6% 80.1% Total: ¥29T Total: ¥27T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 39. Asia Pacific Market Shares – Software – Year to Q208 and Q209 (¥Japan Trillions) Microsoft Microsoft Oracle IBM 4.6% Oracle IBM 4.4% 2.7% 4.6% 2.8% 4.5% Accenture Accenture 2.4% 2.2% Symantec Symantec 1.0% 0.8% HP HP 0.6% 0.6% CA CA 0.7% 0.6% Others Others 83.8% 83.5% Total: ¥10.5T Total: ¥9.6T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 40. Asia Pacific Market Shares – Telecom Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 (¥Japan Trillions) Vodafone Vodafone Telstra 0.7% AT&T Telstra 0.8% AT&T NTT NTT 1.8% 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% China Tel 0.3% China Tel 0.4% 1.8% Tel Italia 2.1% Tel Italia 0.1% 0.1% DT DT 0.0% 0.0% Others Others 95.0% 94.6% Total: ¥125T Total: ¥104T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 41. EMEA Market Shares – All ITC – Year to Q208 and Q209 (€Euro Trillions) DT DT Vodafone Vodafone FT 2.5% FT 2.8% 2.8% Telefonica 2.3% Telefonica 2.8% 2.9% 2.1% 2.1% HP HP 1.8% 2.1% IBM IBM 1.5% 1.5% Tel Italia Tel Italia 1.4% 1.4% Others Others 85.2% 85.0% Total: €1.73T Total: €1.66T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 42. EMEA Market Shares – Hardware – Year to Q208 and Q209 (€Euro Billions) HP HP 6.1% 6.4% Nokia Nokia 6.9% 6.3% Samsung Samsung 3.8% 3.9% Cisco Cisco 2.9% 3.2% Sony Sony 2.9% 3.2% Dell Dell 2.1% 2.5% Apple 1.4% Apple 1.9% Others Others 73.9% 72.5% Total: €415B Total: €358B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 43. EMEA Market Shares – IT Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 (€Euro Billions) Siemens HP Siemens HP 2.6% 0.9% BT 2.1% 1.8% BT IBM IBM 1.3% FT 1.4% 2.4% 2.6% FT 1.1% 1.2% Cap Gemini Cap Gemini 1.1% 1.2% DT DT 1.2% 1.1% Others Others 89.4% 88.6% Total: €637B Total: €576B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 44. EMEA Market Shares – Software – Year to Q208 and Q209 (€Euro Billions) Microsoft Microsoft IBM IBM Accenture 2.9% 2.0% Oracle Accenture 3.1% 3.0% 3.3% 2.2% Oracle 1.6% 1.9% SAP SAP 0.7% 0.7% Symantec Symantec 0.5% 0.4% HP HP 0.4% 0.4% Others Others 88.9% 88.0% Total: €253B Total: €245B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 45. EMEA Market Shares – Telecom Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 (€Euro Trillions) DT Vodafone DT Vodafone FT 2.9% 3.7% FT 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% Telefonica Telefonica 2.8% 3.1% Tel Italia 1.9% Tel Italia 2.2% BT 1.1% BT 1.0% AT&T 0.7% AT&T 0.8% Others Others 83.5% 82.3% Total: €1.23T Total: €1.09T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 46. Worldwide Major ITC Vendor Revenue Evolution – Rolling 4Qs ($US Billions) •HP (including $140 EDS revenues HP* historically) heads the ITC $120 market AT&T •AT&T and other $100 Telecom Service suppliers have IBM grown strongly $80 •IBM and Deutsche Telekom Samsung have grown relatively $60 Samsung slowly Vodafone $40 Telefonica $20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 47. Americas Major ITC Vendor Revenue Evolution – Rolling 4Qs ($US Billions) •AT&T’s US focus $90 makes it head of AT&T ITC market in $80 the Americas $70 •The strength of the IT market $60 gives HP and IBM 2nd and 3rd HP* places $50 IBM •Telefonica and $40 Sprint have Dell grown faster $30 Telefonica than IT Sprint specialists $20 •Apple shows Apple $10 significant growth $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 48. Asia Pacific Major ITC Vendor Revenue Evolution – Rolling 4Qs (¥ Japan Billions) •Sony heads the ¥4,000 Asia Pacific ITC Samsung market (just) Hitachi ¥3,500 Sony •Hitachi, Samsung and ¥3,000 Fujitsu suffer in Fujitsu the downturn ¥2,500 •IBM’s revenues show slower IBM growth ¥2,000 China Telecom •Nokia and China Telecom ¥1,500 show strong Nokia growth in recent years ¥1,000 ¥500 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 49. EMEA Major ITC Vendor Revenue Evolution – Rolling 4Qs (€Euro Billions) •Telecom €55 Service suppliers are the most €50 important ITC France Telecom leaders €45 Deutsche Telekom •HP and IBM are the only IT suppliers among €40 the top Telefonica companies €35 •Vodafone has Vodafone demonstrated HP* the most €30 dynamic growth IBM (and decline) €25 Telecom Italia €20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  • 50. Conclusions – Some Observations on Regional and Category Differences • Telecom Service vendors dominate EMEA ITC leadership positions • Hardware is vastly more important in Asia Pacific • Quarterly Revenue peaks differ – Q1 in Asia Pacific, Q4 in EMEA and the Americas • Software is more important in the Americas • IT Services is stronger in EMEA and the Americas • Hardware has the least vendors, Software and IT Service the most • Telecom Service is the most localised – its vendors are usually stronger than the biggest IT vendors in their region • Although all categories and regions are experiencing the downturn at different rates, all are severely affected • ITCandor is forecasting a relatively fast upturn, led by Hardware spending ITC Analyst Report