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Why isn’t my realistic time realistic
- 1. Why isn’t my “Realistic Time” realistic? How to recognize the pitfalls of planning and estimation Martin R. Bailey PMP, ACP, CSM, ITIL
- 2. Ideal & Realistic Time Ideal Time – The time we estimate it will take to complete work uninterrupted (consider this an estimate of size) Realistic Time takes in consideration other work being done that may delay delivery Example: A task may take 40 hours, but must be spread out to 10 days due to other work
- 3. Example of a 40hr work week Task A 3 hr Task B 4 hrs Task C 10 hrs Task D 12 hrs Task E 8 hrs This one week plan uses 37 out of 40 hours Or does it?
- 4. Does your Team do support? Task A 3 hr Task B 4 hrs Task C 10 hrs Task D 12 hrs Task E 8 hrs If the average of support is 10 hours per week….. 37 becomes 47…… or you lose 10 hrs of Project time
- 5. What about other “Overhead”? Task A 3 hr Task B 4 hrs Task C 10 hrs Task D 12 hrs Task E 8 hrs Overhead could include: Staff Meetings, Non-project meetings, interruptions, e-mail, context switching between tasks, and more….. Up to 20% per week!
- 6. The result Task A 3 hr Task B 4 hrs Task C 10 hrs Task D 12 hrs Task E 8 hrs Either: 1) The 37 hour work week is now a 55 hour work week 2) The 37 hour Project work week is now 19 hours
- 7. The result: potentially extended project time Task A 3 hr Task B 4 hrs Task C 10 hrs Task D 12 hrs Task E 8 hrs It is time for discussion: Do we extend all or delay Tasks E & C?
- 8. Other Factors to consider Method of Estimates Precision of Estimates Estimate Range Buffer for difficulties
- 9. How to Improve your Estimates Your accuracy should improve as you proceed Get feedback as you prepare estimates Ensure that overhead, support and other factors are considered Decrease Multitasking and working on Multiple projects
- 10. How to Improve your Estimates Project Managers and Scrum Masters should act as a Buffer or Gatekeeper Use Lessons Learned and similar activities as a guide Continuous Examination and Improvement #1 Be Transparent and Communicate
- 11. Estimating Improved ! With these concerns addressed, your estimates should improve. Martin R. Bailey PMP, ACP, CSM, ITIL