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Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2010-2011

July 21, 2010

Publishing for the PreK-12 Market Forecast 2010-2011 from Simba Information is the
premier resource for expert analysis of the highly competitive $8 billion-plus PreK-12
school market.

Challenging market conditions make this report an essential tool for understanding the
dynamics that impact the types of instructional materials and services most in demand
in the school market.

The most up-to-date business information and market trends in this report provide a
complete view of the U.S. school market—all available from Simba Information in a
single-source format in this completely updated report.

A particular focus of this all new report is how technology is—or is not—being
incorporated in the school markets and how it is changing business models of
publishers and providers of instructional and ancillary services.

Topics in Publishing for the PreK-12 Market Forecast 2010-2011 include:

      Market size by media segment: textbooks, courseware, supplemental materials,
      tests, manipulatives, magazines, video and trade books,
      Drivers of segment growth,
      Impact of emergent technologies, including digital textbooks,
      Simba Information’s exclusive Textbook Adoption Scorecard,
      Leading publishers by market segment,
      Analysis of landscape metrics: funding, policy and enrollment,
      The impact of mergers, acquisitions and partnerships,
      Market segment projections through 2013,
      Detailed profiles of leading providers of instructional materials and services.

Publishing for the PreK-12 Market Forecast 2010-2011 is essential market and
business intelligence for publishers, technology providers, editors, marketers, business
development, sales and investment professionals who need to understand the
strategies driving the educational publishing industry currently and in the coming years.
Table of Contents

Methodology

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Industry Size and Structure
     Introduction
     Growth Momentum Stalls
     IM Sales Drop in 2009; Improvement Expected in 2010
     As Largest Category, Textbooks Takes Biggest Hit
     Print Supplements Show Resilience
     Growth for State Tests Flattens
     Tests Migrating Online
     Courseware Generates Growth, Modular Software Flattens
     Video Shows Strong Growth
     Manipulatives Remain Appealing
     Books and Periodicals
     Electronic Media Share Bumps up in 2010
     Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Leads Simba’s PreK-12 Publisher Index
     HMH, Pearson & McGraw-Hill Dominate PreK-12 Publishing
     Archipelago, AEC and Carnegie Sees Fastest Growth
     Operating Performance Captures the Spotlight

      Table 1.1: 5-Year Sales Trends, 2005-2009
      Table 1.2: Sales of Print and Electronic Media to the U.S. PreK-12 School
      Market, 2008-2010P
      Table 1.3: Market Share of Media Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2010P
      Table 1.4: Simba Information’s PreK-12 U.S. Publisher Index, 2008 vs. 2009 vs.
      2010P
      Table 1.5: Publisher Operating Performance Index, 2009 vs. 2008

Chapter 2: Enrollment and Demographics
     Introduction
     Public Schools Educate Almost 90% of Students
     Public Enrollment vs. Private Enrollment
     Fastest-Growing States for K-12 Enrollment
     Fastest-Growing Counties for K-12 Enrollment
     Schools Growing More Diverse
     More Special Needs Students in Schools
     Progress in State PreK Slowed
     17% of All Public Schools Considered High Poverty Schools
     Homeschool Enrollment Up
     Online Course Enrollment Expected to Grow
Table 2.1: Total Public Projected PreK-12 Enrollment, 2008P-2019P
      Table 2.2: States Experiencing Largest Enrollment Increases, 2009-2010 vs.
      2008-2009
      Table 2.3: Projected Public School 2019 Enrollment by State with % change from
      2007
      Table 2.4: 25 Counties with Largest Enrollment Increases, 2009-2010
      Table 2.5: 25 Districts with Highest Number LEP/ELL Students
      Table 2.6: 25 Districts with Highest Number IEP Students
      Table 2.7: Preschool Enrollment & Est. Spending per Child, 2008-2009
      Table 2.8: Percentage of High Poverty Schools by State, 2007

Chapter 3: Funding
     Introduction
     2011 Proposed Budget Calls for Funding Increase
     Program Consolidation Proposed
     Title I Helps Low-Achieving Students in High Poverty Areas
     Race-To-The-Top’s First Winners are Delaware and Tennessee
     School Improvement Grants Evolve to School Turnaround
     Tapping Special Education Funding
     Longitudinal Data System to Expand
     Stimulus Dollars Still Available
     Funding at the State Level
     Average State Per-Pupil Spending on Instructional Materials Is $264

      Table 3.1: Federal Education Programs Consolidated/Renamed for FY
      Table 3.2: Dept. of Education Discretionary Spending FY2009-2011P
      Table 3.3: U.S. Dept. of Education Title I State Grant Allocations, 2009-2011P
      Table 3.4: 50 Largest Title I Allocations to LEAs, FY2009
      Table 3.5: School Improvement Grant Allocations, 2009-2011E
      Table 3.6: Federal Grants to States for Special Education, FY2011P
      Table 3.7: Statewide Data System Grants, ARRA2009
      Table 3.8: Percent of Stimulus Money Remaining to be Spent by State
      Table 3.9: Fiscal 2011 Shortfalls as a Percent of Fiscal 2010 Budget
      Table 3.10: Instructional Materials Expenditures by State, 2007-2008

Chapter 4: Textbooks and Adoptions
     Introduction
     Economy Shears Textbook Sales in 2009
     Reading and Mathematics Lead Disciplines in Sales
     Textbook Market: Adoption States and Open Territories
     Elementary Sales Outpace Secondary Sales in 2008
     Hopes were Dashed in 2009
     California Seeks Free Digital Books
     Pearson Parlays K-5 Sales Strength to Lead 2009 Publisher Scorecard
     Pearson Titles Top K-5, HMH, McGraw-Hill Split 6-8 Top Spot
Outlook Texas and Florida Lead Opportunity in 2010
      South Carolina Cancels Math, Language Arts Adoption
      Indiana Advises Districts to Wait
      Houghton Mifflin Looks to Have Edge in Florida
      Commanding Demand in Texas Reading for Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
      2011 and Beyond
      More Twists and Turns in Texas
      Encouragement for Digital Materials

      Table 4.1: Textbook Share of Instructional Media Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2008
      vs. 2009
      Table 4.2: Top 10 Disciplines for Elementary Textbooks, 2008
      Table 4.3: Top 10 Disciplines for Secondary Textbooks, 2008
      Table 4.4: Basal Sales, Adoption States vs. Open Territories, 2004-2009
      Table 4.5: Elementary and Secondary Textbook Sales, 2008 Top 10 States
      Table 4.6: Textbook Adoption States
      Table 4.7: Simba Information’s Adoption Scorecard, 2009
      Table 4.8: Simba’s Best-Selling Textbook Series, 2009
      Table 4.9: Texas K-12 Reading/Literature Adoption, 2010

Chapter 5: Supplementary Materials
     Introduction
     Schools Equipped for Electronic Supplementals
     Software Sales Up
     Video Increasingly Integrated into Instruction
     Print Supplemental Still a Substantial Market
     Trade Books and Magazines Maintain Niche
     Interest in Hands-On Learning Helps Manipulatives Market
     Scholastic Top Supplemental Publisher List
     Future of Supplementals
     Variety of Providers Offer Content Management
     Competition from Teacher-Generated Curriculum Resources

      Table 5.1: Sales of Supplemental Instructional Materials to the U.S. PreK-12
      School Market, 2008-2010P
      Table 5.2: Simba Information’s Supplemental Publisher Index, 2008-20010P

Chapter 6: Trends and Marketing
     Introduction
     Momentum for Common Core State Standards Shifts to Adoption
     Publishers Could Benefit from Common Core Goals
     Kentucky Leads States in Adopting Common Standards
     Pearson, Montgomery County, Md., Partner for Curriculum Initiative
     Public/Private Business Model
     Appeal to Other Districts
     Half of Schools Could Offer Distance Learning by 2011-2012
Online Courses Impact Materials Market
      Common Testing Blossoms
      High School Only
      Evolving Marketing Strategies
      Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Expands Virtual Sampling in K-12
      Characteristics and Initiatives
      Pearson Teams with Newark for New Purchasing System
      Global Partnership Schools Adds Associates, Begins Work in Schools
      At Work in Baltimore and Washington
      McGraw-Hill Vision: Solutions Partner

      Table 6.1: Key Points in Core Standards
      Table 6.2: Project North Star At-a-Glance
      Table 6.3: Main Reasons Schools Offer Online Courses

Chapter 7: Outlook and Forecast
     Introduction
     PreK-12 Market Growth Slows

      Table 7.1: Sales Forecast of Key Instructional Materials used in U.S. Classrooms
      , 2009-2013

Company Profiles
    American Education Corp.
    Archipelago Learning
    Cambium Learning Group
    Carnegie Learning Inc.
    EMC/Paradigm (Wicks Educational Publishing)
    Goodheart-Willcox
    Haights Cross Communications
    Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company
    Inspiration Software
    K12 Inc.
    McGraw-Hill Education (The McGraw-Hill Cos.)
    Pearson Education
    Peoples Education
    Plato Learning
    Renaissance Learning
    Scantron Corp.
    Scholastic Corp.
    School Specialty
    Scientific Learning Corp.
    Weekly Reader (Reader’s Digest Association)


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Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2010-2011

  • 1. Get more info on this report! Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2010-2011 July 21, 2010 Publishing for the PreK-12 Market Forecast 2010-2011 from Simba Information is the premier resource for expert analysis of the highly competitive $8 billion-plus PreK-12 school market. Challenging market conditions make this report an essential tool for understanding the dynamics that impact the types of instructional materials and services most in demand in the school market. The most up-to-date business information and market trends in this report provide a complete view of the U.S. school market—all available from Simba Information in a single-source format in this completely updated report. A particular focus of this all new report is how technology is—or is not—being incorporated in the school markets and how it is changing business models of publishers and providers of instructional and ancillary services. Topics in Publishing for the PreK-12 Market Forecast 2010-2011 include: Market size by media segment: textbooks, courseware, supplemental materials, tests, manipulatives, magazines, video and trade books, Drivers of segment growth, Impact of emergent technologies, including digital textbooks, Simba Information’s exclusive Textbook Adoption Scorecard, Leading publishers by market segment, Analysis of landscape metrics: funding, policy and enrollment, The impact of mergers, acquisitions and partnerships, Market segment projections through 2013, Detailed profiles of leading providers of instructional materials and services. Publishing for the PreK-12 Market Forecast 2010-2011 is essential market and business intelligence for publishers, technology providers, editors, marketers, business development, sales and investment professionals who need to understand the strategies driving the educational publishing industry currently and in the coming years.
  • 2. Table of Contents Methodology Executive Summary Chapter 1: Industry Size and Structure Introduction Growth Momentum Stalls IM Sales Drop in 2009; Improvement Expected in 2010 As Largest Category, Textbooks Takes Biggest Hit Print Supplements Show Resilience Growth for State Tests Flattens Tests Migrating Online Courseware Generates Growth, Modular Software Flattens Video Shows Strong Growth Manipulatives Remain Appealing Books and Periodicals Electronic Media Share Bumps up in 2010 Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Leads Simba’s PreK-12 Publisher Index HMH, Pearson & McGraw-Hill Dominate PreK-12 Publishing Archipelago, AEC and Carnegie Sees Fastest Growth Operating Performance Captures the Spotlight Table 1.1: 5-Year Sales Trends, 2005-2009 Table 1.2: Sales of Print and Electronic Media to the U.S. PreK-12 School Market, 2008-2010P Table 1.3: Market Share of Media Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2010P Table 1.4: Simba Information’s PreK-12 U.S. Publisher Index, 2008 vs. 2009 vs. 2010P Table 1.5: Publisher Operating Performance Index, 2009 vs. 2008 Chapter 2: Enrollment and Demographics Introduction Public Schools Educate Almost 90% of Students Public Enrollment vs. Private Enrollment Fastest-Growing States for K-12 Enrollment Fastest-Growing Counties for K-12 Enrollment Schools Growing More Diverse More Special Needs Students in Schools Progress in State PreK Slowed 17% of All Public Schools Considered High Poverty Schools Homeschool Enrollment Up Online Course Enrollment Expected to Grow
  • 3. Table 2.1: Total Public Projected PreK-12 Enrollment, 2008P-2019P Table 2.2: States Experiencing Largest Enrollment Increases, 2009-2010 vs. 2008-2009 Table 2.3: Projected Public School 2019 Enrollment by State with % change from 2007 Table 2.4: 25 Counties with Largest Enrollment Increases, 2009-2010 Table 2.5: 25 Districts with Highest Number LEP/ELL Students Table 2.6: 25 Districts with Highest Number IEP Students Table 2.7: Preschool Enrollment & Est. Spending per Child, 2008-2009 Table 2.8: Percentage of High Poverty Schools by State, 2007 Chapter 3: Funding Introduction 2011 Proposed Budget Calls for Funding Increase Program Consolidation Proposed Title I Helps Low-Achieving Students in High Poverty Areas Race-To-The-Top’s First Winners are Delaware and Tennessee School Improvement Grants Evolve to School Turnaround Tapping Special Education Funding Longitudinal Data System to Expand Stimulus Dollars Still Available Funding at the State Level Average State Per-Pupil Spending on Instructional Materials Is $264 Table 3.1: Federal Education Programs Consolidated/Renamed for FY Table 3.2: Dept. of Education Discretionary Spending FY2009-2011P Table 3.3: U.S. Dept. of Education Title I State Grant Allocations, 2009-2011P Table 3.4: 50 Largest Title I Allocations to LEAs, FY2009 Table 3.5: School Improvement Grant Allocations, 2009-2011E Table 3.6: Federal Grants to States for Special Education, FY2011P Table 3.7: Statewide Data System Grants, ARRA2009 Table 3.8: Percent of Stimulus Money Remaining to be Spent by State Table 3.9: Fiscal 2011 Shortfalls as a Percent of Fiscal 2010 Budget Table 3.10: Instructional Materials Expenditures by State, 2007-2008 Chapter 4: Textbooks and Adoptions Introduction Economy Shears Textbook Sales in 2009 Reading and Mathematics Lead Disciplines in Sales Textbook Market: Adoption States and Open Territories Elementary Sales Outpace Secondary Sales in 2008 Hopes were Dashed in 2009 California Seeks Free Digital Books Pearson Parlays K-5 Sales Strength to Lead 2009 Publisher Scorecard Pearson Titles Top K-5, HMH, McGraw-Hill Split 6-8 Top Spot
  • 4. Outlook Texas and Florida Lead Opportunity in 2010 South Carolina Cancels Math, Language Arts Adoption Indiana Advises Districts to Wait Houghton Mifflin Looks to Have Edge in Florida Commanding Demand in Texas Reading for Houghton Mifflin Harcourt 2011 and Beyond More Twists and Turns in Texas Encouragement for Digital Materials Table 4.1: Textbook Share of Instructional Media Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2008 vs. 2009 Table 4.2: Top 10 Disciplines for Elementary Textbooks, 2008 Table 4.3: Top 10 Disciplines for Secondary Textbooks, 2008 Table 4.4: Basal Sales, Adoption States vs. Open Territories, 2004-2009 Table 4.5: Elementary and Secondary Textbook Sales, 2008 Top 10 States Table 4.6: Textbook Adoption States Table 4.7: Simba Information’s Adoption Scorecard, 2009 Table 4.8: Simba’s Best-Selling Textbook Series, 2009 Table 4.9: Texas K-12 Reading/Literature Adoption, 2010 Chapter 5: Supplementary Materials Introduction Schools Equipped for Electronic Supplementals Software Sales Up Video Increasingly Integrated into Instruction Print Supplemental Still a Substantial Market Trade Books and Magazines Maintain Niche Interest in Hands-On Learning Helps Manipulatives Market Scholastic Top Supplemental Publisher List Future of Supplementals Variety of Providers Offer Content Management Competition from Teacher-Generated Curriculum Resources Table 5.1: Sales of Supplemental Instructional Materials to the U.S. PreK-12 School Market, 2008-2010P Table 5.2: Simba Information’s Supplemental Publisher Index, 2008-20010P Chapter 6: Trends and Marketing Introduction Momentum for Common Core State Standards Shifts to Adoption Publishers Could Benefit from Common Core Goals Kentucky Leads States in Adopting Common Standards Pearson, Montgomery County, Md., Partner for Curriculum Initiative Public/Private Business Model Appeal to Other Districts Half of Schools Could Offer Distance Learning by 2011-2012
  • 5. Online Courses Impact Materials Market Common Testing Blossoms High School Only Evolving Marketing Strategies Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Expands Virtual Sampling in K-12 Characteristics and Initiatives Pearson Teams with Newark for New Purchasing System Global Partnership Schools Adds Associates, Begins Work in Schools At Work in Baltimore and Washington McGraw-Hill Vision: Solutions Partner Table 6.1: Key Points in Core Standards Table 6.2: Project North Star At-a-Glance Table 6.3: Main Reasons Schools Offer Online Courses Chapter 7: Outlook and Forecast Introduction PreK-12 Market Growth Slows Table 7.1: Sales Forecast of Key Instructional Materials used in U.S. Classrooms , 2009-2013 Company Profiles American Education Corp. Archipelago Learning Cambium Learning Group Carnegie Learning Inc. EMC/Paradigm (Wicks Educational Publishing) Goodheart-Willcox Haights Cross Communications Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company Inspiration Software K12 Inc. McGraw-Hill Education (The McGraw-Hill Cos.) Pearson Education Peoples Education Plato Learning Renaissance Learning Scantron Corp. Scholastic Corp. School Specialty Scientific Learning Corp. Weekly Reader (Reader’s Digest Association) Available immediately for Online Download at