Explores the returns of stock and bond markets in the US based on election results and presidencies going back to 1926.

1. Market Returns During US Election Years

2. Market Returns and Election Years
2
Sources: S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved; MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved; Bloomberg Barclays Capital data provided by Bloomberg.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
It is difficult to identify systematic return patterns in elections years.
On average, market returns have been positive both in election
years and the subsequent year.
Market expectations associated with election outcomes are
embedded in security prices.

3. Annualized Returns During US Presidential Terms
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Each president’s annualized return begins with the first full month of returns of presidency. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual
portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index Returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: S&P
data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
S&P 500 Index
-2.90%
20.20%
15.80%
13.90%
-4.40%
6.20%
11.7%
17.6%
16.0%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Richard
Nixon
Gerald
Ford
Jimmy
Carter
Ronald
Reagan
George H.W.
Bush
William
Clinton
George W.
Bush
Barack
Obama
Donald
Trump
Republican Republican Democrat Republican Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican
02/69 – 08/74 09/74 – 01/77 02/77 – 01/81 02/81 – 01/89 02/89 – 01/93 02/93 – 01/01 02/01 – 01/09 02/09 – 01/17 02/17 – 3/20

4. Returns During and After US Election Years
4
Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not
representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
S&P 500 Index: 1928–2017
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
1928: Hoover vs. Smith
1932: Roosevelt vs. Hoover
1936: Roosevelt vs. Landon
1940: Roosevelt vs. Willkie
1944: Roosevelt vs. Dewey
1948: Truman vs. Dewey
1952: Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
1956: Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
1960: Kennedy vs. Nixon
1964: Johnson vs. Goldwater
1968: Nixon vs. Humphrey
1972: Nixon vs. McGovern
1976: Carter vs. Ford
1980: Reagan vs. Carter
1984: Reagan vs. Mondale
1988: Bush vs. Dukakis
1992: Clinton vs. Bush
1996: Clinton vs. Dole
2000: Bush vs. Gore
2004: Bush vs. Kerry
2008: Obama vs. McCain
2012: Obama vs. Romney
2016: Trump vs. Clinton
◼ Average Return Year Subsequent to Election = 9.9%
◼ Average Return During US Election Year = 11.3%
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5. Annualized Returns During US Presidential Terms
5
#50085-0116
Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not
representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: S&P data © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
S&P 500 Index: 1929–2019
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
1929–1932: Hoover
1933–1936: Roosevelt
1937–1940: Roosevelt
1941–1944: Roosevelt
1945–1948: Roosevelt
1949–1952: Truman
1953–1956: Eisenhower
1957–1960:Eisenhower
1961–1964: Kennedy
1965–1968: Johnson
1969–1972: Nixon
1973–1976: Nixon
1977–1980: Carter
1981–1984: Reagan
1985–1988: Reagan
1989–1992: Bush
1993–1996: Clinton
1997–2000: Clinton
2001–2004: Bush
2005–2008: Bush
2009–2012: Obama
2013–2016: Obama
2017–2019: Trump
Average Return for US Presidential Terms = 10.3%

6. Returns During and After US Election Years
6
Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not
representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index: 1976–2017
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
1976: Carter vs. Ford
1980: Reagan vs. Carter
1984: Reagan vs. Mondale
1988: Bush vs. Dukakis
1992: Clinton vs. Bush
1996: Clinton vs. Dole
2000: Bush vs. Gore
2004: Bush vs. Kerry
2008: Obama vs. McCain
2012: Obama vs. Romney
2016: Trump vs. Clinton
◼ Average Return Year Subsequent to Election = 7.3%
◼ Average Return During US Election Year = 7.6%
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7. #50085-0116
Annualized Returns During US Presidential Terms
7
Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not
representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index: 1977–2019
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
1977–1980: Carter
1981–1984: Reagan
1985–1988: Reagan
1989–1992: Bush
1993–1996: Clinton
1997–2000: Clinton
2001–2004: Bush
2005–2008: Bush
2009–2012: Obama
2013–2016: Obama
2017–2019: Trump
Average Return for US Presidential Terms = 7.1%

8. US Presidential Elections and S&P 500 Returns
8
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Source: S&P data ©
2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
Histogram of Monthly Returns: January 1926–December 2019
Below-20%
-20%to-19%
-19%to-18%
-18%to-17%
-17%to-16%
-16%to-15%
-15%to-14%
-14%to-13%
-13%to-12%
-12%to-11%
-11%to-10%
-10%to-9%
-9%to-8%
-8%to-7%
-7%to-6%
-6%to-5%
-5%to-4%
-4%to-3%
-3%to-2%
-2%to-1%
-1%to0%
0%to1%
1%to2%
2%to3%
3%to4%
4%to5%
5%to6%
6%to7%
7%to8%
8%to9%
9%to10%
10%to11%
11%to12%
12%to13%
13%to14%
14%to15%
15%to16%
16%to17%
17%to18%
18%to19%
19%to20%
Above20%
Monthly Return Ranges
 Month a Republican Won
 Month a Democrat Won
 Non-Election Month

9. Markets Have Rewarded Long-Term Investors
under a Variety of US Presidents
9
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Source: S&P data ©
2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
Growth of a Dollar Invested in the S&P 500: January 1926–December 2019
$0
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
1926 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Republican President Democratic President
Coolidge
Hoover
Roosevelt
Truman
Eisenhower
Kennedy
Johnson
Nixon Ford
Carter
Reagan
Bush
Clinton
Trump
Bush
Obama