What is really making the weather go crazy? A brief look at the effects of the changing atmosphere and why.

2. Objectives:
• What is the greenhouse effect, and how does it work?
• Are global warming and the greenhouse effect the same?
• What are the main greenhouse gases, and what are the natural and
anthropogenic sources of these gasses?
• What is the present level of atmospheric carbon dioxide? Why has carbon
dioxide concentration risen since 1860?
• What are some predicted environmental damages if carbon dioxide
emissions are not reduced?
• Based on scholarly research, how certain do you need to be about future
predictions before acting on this problem? Discuss computer models or
another form of predictive research.

3. Greenhouse Gas: Is typically the gases we release through fossil fuels and various
other biological and chemical sources that increase carbon dioxide, carbon
monoxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and trioxygens, into the atmosphere.
Greenhouse Effect: Gases like carbon dioxide and other gases help control the
temperature on the earth. This occurs when the sun light’s energy beams down onto
the earth’s surface and warms the atmosphere. Both land and sea absorb the heat of
the sun. Not all energy is kept. Some bounces back off into space and is known as
infrared energy. When the energy goes into space it is trapped by greenhouse gases
before it can escape. This causes the earth to become warmer.
When we use energy in any form, it contributes to the Greenhouse effect.
Electricity, coal, natural gas, gasoline, diesel and biological emissions all contribute
to the green house effect.
(Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2014)

4. Global Warming:
Global warming is not the same as greenhouse effect. Global warming is CAUSED
by the increase of the greenhouse effect. It refers to an average increase in the
Earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. This includes:
 Rain patterns changing causing flooding or drought in places never before seen.
 More intense heat waves world wide.
 Sea levels rising.
 Ice caps melting earlier in spring. Polar ice caps melting at 9% a year.
 Oceans are warming and becoming more acidic.
 Increase in wildfires in West and Northwest.
 Creating mass dust storms that haven’t been seen in decades.
 Creates stronger and longer hurricanes as well as more often.
 Increased insect and pest populations.
(Natural Resources Defense Council (NDRC), 2005)

5. Greenhouse Gases : Are typically the gases we release through fossil fuels and various other
biological and chemical resources that increase the gases into the atmosphere.
Greenhouse
Gas
Chemical
Formula
Anthropogenic
Sources
Atmospheric
Lifetime1(years)
GWP2 (100 Year
Time Horizon)
Carbon
Dioxide
CO2
Fossil-fuel
combustion,
Land-use
conversion,
Cement
Production
~ 100-3004 1
Methane CH4
Fossil fuels,
Rice paddies,
Waste dumps
121 28
Nitrous
Oxide
N2O
Fertilizer,
Industrial
processes,
Combustion
2651 298
Tropospheric
Ozone or CFC’s
O3
Fossil fuel
combustion,
Industrial
emissions,
Chemical
solvents
hours-days N.A.
(Blasing, 2014)

6.  Carbon Dioxide – Commonly caused by big industry, garbage dumps,
transportation and decomposition.
 Is primary greenhouse gas emitted through human activities.
 In 2012 CO2 accounted for 82% of all greenhouse gases.
 Lingers in the atmosphere for up to 200 years.
 Long-term cumulative potential for damage is much more extreme.
 Percentages of CO2 by humans (anthropogenic)
 Industry – 14%
 Transportation - 32%
 Electricity – 38%
 Residential and Commercial – 9%
 Natural Sources
 Other Non-Fossil fuels – 6%
(Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)(Ref.2), 2014)

7.  Methane – Natural occurring gaseous product in the ground and ocean
floors. Also produced by biological organisms during decay. Easily traps
infrared radiation from the reflection of heat energy of the earth.
 Used for :
 Heating the homes and operating factories
 Transportation – Used as an alternative to gasoline and diesel
 Rocket Fuel – Used by American and Russian space propulsion
laboratory's,
 Sources:
• Natural Gas – 29% (natural)
• Bacterial or enteric fermentation of biologicals – 25% (natural)
• Landfills – 18% (anthropogenic)
• Coal Mining – 10% (anthropogenic)
• Manure Management – 9% (anthropogenic)
• Other – 9%
(Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)(Ref.2), 2014)

8.  Nitrous Oxide - Nitrous oxide is naturally present in the atmosphere as part of
the Earth's nitrogen cycle.
 Human activities such as agriculture, fossil fuel combustion, wastewater
management, and industrial processes are increasing the amount of N2O in the
atmosphere.
 The impact of 1 pound of N2O on warming the atmosphere is over 300 times that
of 1 pound of carbon dioxide.
 Sources:
 Agricultural and Soil Management – 75% (anthropogenic)
 Industry & Chemical Production – 6% (anthropogenic)
 Stationary Combustion – 5% (anthropogenic)
 Manure Management – 5% (anthropogenic)
 Transportation – 4% (anthropogenic)
 Other – 5% ( Natural)
(Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)(2), 2014)

9. Fluorocarbons:
 All hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur
hexafluoride (SF6) come from human interactive sources. They are all
anthropogenic.
 These chemicals were developed as a replacement for chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) because they do not deplete the
stratospheric ozone layer.
 Sources:
 Substitution of Ozone depleting sources – 89%
 Electrical Transmission and distribution – 4%
 HCFC-22 Production – 3%
 Production and Processing of Aluminum & Magnesium – 2%
 Semi-conductor manufacturing – 2%
(Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)(2), 2014)

10. Present Atmospheric CO2 :
 According to CO2 Now.org, the current atmospheric CO2 level
is presently standing at (397.13) parts per million (ppm).
 The upper atmospheric safety zone is no higher than (350) ppm.
This has not been the case since 1980.
 In the past 10 years the particulate level has increased by 2.07
ppm annually.
 As seen on next page, the history of CO2 has exploded since the
1860’s
 This was from the slow creep of manufacturing from the East
coast and eventually reaching the West coast.
(Current CO2, 2014)

11. • Atmospheric CO2 in 1860: Graph shows increase since 1860. It was
measured at (288 ppm) in 1860 compared to (397.13 ppm) in 2014
• The industrial revolution from East to West took it’s toll.
(Doty, 2004)

12. Predicted environmental damages :
 On January 2009, Susan Solomon posts a report through the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administrating stating that global warming is irreversible.
– Predictions : If CO2 levels allowed between 450 – 600 ppm.
• Persistent decreases in dry-season rainfall, which would bring back dust bowls like
in the 1930’s.
• Different rainfalls would change different regions.
• Would decrease human water supplies.
• Increase fire frequencies in different areas.
• Deserts would expand to phenomenal portions.
• Dry-season wheat and maize agriculture in regions of rain-fed farming, such as
Africa, would also be affected.
• This changes will continue to accelerate if the CO2 levels are not dropped quickly.
• Estimates show this condition will occur for the next 100 years based on scientific
testing and lower levels are not achieved.
• See levels could rise as much as three feet if levels are not diminished.
• Polar ice caps melting at alarming rate forcing more CO2 atmosphere. (Domino
Affect)
(Solomon, 2009)

13. Certainty of predictions before acting:
 Many even wonder why the weather is changing so drastically at all. They hear
about the greenhouse affect, but no education is really pushed on the idea at all.
 The GEOS Institute Carries a long line of reports from around the world, which
conducts in depth studies to assess the damage of greenhouse warming and it’s
effects.
 Examples include:
 Climate Change in the United States from North, East, South, and West.
 Climate Change Around the World established by the United Nations
Environmental Program (UNEP).
 Individual reports from every state on impacts currently happening within
each state.
 The overall reports address a grim future to the whole totality of life on earth
with everything changing for the worse. Every report read, emphasizes the
contamination levels out of control, the problems they’re inflicting, both
natural and towards human environmental sustainability.
 Certainty of change is already here, we just need to act. But how high does the
cost need to be before we all act. When we are all dead? (Graham, 2014)

14. Climate Models - Climate models are important tools utilized to advance our
understanding of current and past climates, weather patterns, and predictions.
Examples: Ones in RED are the (5) primary models.
 Atmospheric, cloud, solar radiation and precipitation models.
 Oceanic current, deep ocean, swamp, hydraulic cycle and prescribed ice (Sea
Ice & Sheet Ice) models.
 Land surface and volcanic Models
 Sulphates, carbon cycle and aerosol models
 Computer Generated Numeric Weather Prediction (NWP) Models
 Models made by a set of equations using fundamental Laws of Physics , which
include:
 Equations of motion or primitive equations
 Used by both climate and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models
 Balance forces acting in three dimensions
 Converse Mass and track the temps of every grid box.
(Doty, 2004)

15. Climate Models Continued:
 To Solve Equations we create:
 Create a grid structure with vertical columns of air.
 They are the sliced into horizontal layers.
 The equations are then solved at the center-point of each model
grid box
 Grid models as of 2012;
 NWP’s grid cells can now go as small as 1.5km
 Climate models now are as small as 50 km per grid cell.
 Old models used to be between 300 to 400 km
 These track the amount of moisture and other trace products.
(University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 2012)

16. Digital Computer Modeling:
 First introduced in the 1950’s.
 Became theoretically possible to create weather and climate models.
 Were able to forecast short weather predictions with NWP models first.
 General Circulation Models were utilize in 60 ‘s and 70’s along with NWP’s.
 Many details in early numerical weather predictions were set to fixed or seasonal values
as they could not be calculated computationally from insufficient resources and it was
not well understood. How to do it.
 As understanding advanced and computer power increased additional climate processes
were improved upon.
 Carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and biosphere recently added, which is capable of
responding to climate model change.
 Land and sea ice models have also been recently added to interact with the rest of the
climate model.
(University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 2012)

17. Climate Model Simulation using computer Generated Modeling
(University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 2012)