ISS Risk's Executive Summary ... "Taken in isolation, this week’s developments might easily be construed as the same stale posturing and bellicose rhetoric from a regime that the world loves to mock. But the events are intimately linked – and not just to each other. They are the latest in a chain of events that began in 2011, when Kim Jong Un ascended to the role of North Korea’s Supreme Leader. Crucially, this week’s test, and the alleged execution of army chief of staff General Ri Yong-gil, are clear indicators that significant change is afoot within the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea."

1. ISS Risk Special Report:
DPRK: Analysis of its 2016
Nuclear Test and Satellite Launch
– Why Now?
Intelligent Security Solutions Limited
www.issrisk.com
8 February 2016

2. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis
Executive Summary
As well documented by the media, last month, the DPRK conducted a fourth nuclear test
followed by a satellite launch. This test came despite international condemnation and
heightened sanctions. If considered in isolation, the behaviour seen coming out of the North
over the past few months might easily be compartmentalised with the same old rhetoric and
posturing that we have all begun to expect from the regime. This report provides a different
analysis of the recent nuclear tests by viewing them in a broader context. We, at ISS Risk,
believe that, rather than just bellicose behaviour, these tests are a clear indication that changes
are taking place within the DPRK. These changes are based on the transition away from the
Songun („Military First‟) policy toward a „Country First‟ policy, indicating a reduction in Korean
People‟s Army (KPA) power and a movement toward economic development.
In this report we support such bold assertions by analysing Kim Jung Un‟s statements over the
past few years, but most specially, from the recent joint meeting between the Workers‟ Party of
Korea (WPK) and KPA. Additionally, the report provides a snapshot of the economic
developments that have already occurred over the past five years, including “shadow markets”
and the introduction of a property market, which the government are actively facilitating.
We so easily question the North‟s behaviour when we view it from our international perspective.
After investigating beyond initial expectations, we conclusively assert that the latest nuclear
tests have more to do with internal matters than international ones. With these tests, Kim is
illustrating to his people that the transition away from the traditional Songun policy is possible.
He is giving them confidence that the country is secure and they can, therefore, begin focusing
on progressing the country economically. As ground-breaking as we would like this report to be,
all it took was the simple application of rational thinking. When the DPRK does something of
such magnitude, we must look inward in order to truly understand what is triggering such
behaviour. When viewed without preconceptions, the current situation with the DPRK is more
comprehensible than it is put out to be.