Dr. Salwa Mahmoud

1. Population growth
Population of any country is its human resources and its
most important factor of production.
Population growth: It is the change in population number
whether positive or negative.
It is a result of the interaction between three important
variables:( Birth, Death and Migration)
Population growth
=Natural increase + Net migration
= (Birth – Death ) + ( In migration – out migration )

2.  The estimate of population in Jan 2017 was
about 92.1 million (inside Egypt) using the
Natural Increase method (the
difference between Birth and Deaths).
As shown in the following tables (Statistical
Yearbook – Population)

3.
Governorates
ESTIMATED POPULATION &THEIR PERCENTAGE
DISTRIBUTION BY SEX & GOVERNORATE IN 1/1/2017 (Unit : No.)
%
Total Females Males
Total
100
92 115 689
45 155 616
46 960 073
Cairo 10.4 9 595 813 4 751 405 4 844 408
Alexandria 5.4 4 989 756 2 453 637 2 536 119
Port-Said 0.7 689 423 339 144 350 279
Suez 0.7 649 641 320 326 329 315
Damietta 1.5 1 387 490 680 928 706 562
Dakahlia 6.7 6 191 160 3 052 045 3 139 115
Sharkia 7.4 6 790 797 3 314 721 3 476 076
Kalyoubia 5.8 5 321 762 2 594 743 2 727 019
Kafr-El-Sheikh 3.6 3 322 065 1 641 481 1 680 584
Gharbia 5.4 4 946 779 2 440 832 2 505 947
Menoufia 4.5 4 125 460 2 009 600 2 115 860
Behera 6.6 6 102 422 2 980 160 3 122 262
Ismailia 1.3 1 239 708 611 423 628 285
Giza 8.6 7 940 294 3 866 948 4 073 346
Beni-Suef 3.3 3 029 370 1 487 335 1 542 035
Fayoum 3.7 3 362 413 1 629 698 1 732 715
Menia 5.9 5 459 795 2 676 623 2 783 172
Asyout 4.9 4 481 735 2 196 569 2 285 166
Suhag 5.3 4 862 308 2 398 240 2 464 068
Qena 3.5 3 210 067 1 595 725 1 614 342
Aswan 1.6 1 501 947 745 626 756 321
Luxor 1.3 1 200 864 589 818 611 046
Red Sea 0.4 362 261 147 331 214 930
ElWadi ElGidid 0.3 235 763 115 040 120 723
Matrouh 0.5 488 978 235 469 253 509

4.
POPULATION ESTIMATES BY SEX AT FIRST OF JAN . ( 1996 - 2017 ) (Unit :000
Pop.)
Total Females Males Years
92 115 45 155 46 960 * 2017
90 086 44 141 45 944 2016
87 963 43 083 44 880 2015
85 783 41 995 43 788 2014
83 667 40 940 42 727 2013
81 567 39 893 41 674 2012
79 618 38 913 40 705 2011
77 840 38 045 39 795 2010
76 099 37 194 38 905 2009
74 439 36 400 38 039 2008
72 940 35 650 37 290 2007
71 348 34 839 36 509 2006
69 997 34 180 35 817 2005
68 648 33 543 35 105 2004
67 313 32 869 34 444 2003
65 986 32 220 33 766 2002
64 652 31 569 33 083 2001
63 305 30 912 32 393 2000
61 993 30 283 31 710 1999
60 706 29 653 31 053 1998
59 441 29 060 30 381 1997
59 313 28 961 30 352 1996

5. ESTIMATES OF MIDYEAR POP. BY URBAN & RURAL AND
THEIR PERCENTAGE (1990-2016) (Unit :000 Pop.)
Total
%
Rural
%
Urban
Years
91 023
57.3
52 127
42.7
38 895
* 2016
88 958 57.3 50 959 42.7 37 997 2015
86 814 57.3 49 719 42.7 37 095 2014
84 629 57.2 48 416 42.8 36 213 2013
82 550 57.1 47 177 42.9 35 373 2012
80 530 57.2 46 041 42.8 34 489 2011
78 685 57.0 44 881 43.0 33 804 2010
76 925 57.0 43 842 43.0 33 083 2009
75 194 57.1 42 945 42.9 32 249 2008
73 644 56.9 41 924 43.1 31 720 2007
72 009 57.5 41 424 42.5 30 585 2006
70 653 57.3 40 466 42.7 30 187 2005
69 304 57.2 39 651 42.8 29 653 2004
67 965 57.1 38 835 42.9 29 130 2003
66 628 57.1 38 074 42.9 28 554 2002
65 182 56.9 37 064 43.1 28 118 2001
63 860 57.5 36 728 42.5 27 132 2000
62 565 57.5 36 006 42.5 26 559 1999
61 296 57.4 35 192 42.6 26 104 1998
60 053 57.4 34 475 42.6 25 578 1997
58 835 57.4 33 782 42.6 25 053 1996
57 642 57.1 32 933 42.9 24 709 1995
56 344 56.9 32 068 43.1 24 276 1994
55 201 56.9 31 397 43.1 23 804 1993
54 082 56.8 30 716 43.2 23 366 1992
52 985 56.8 30 077 43.2 22 908 1991

6. What is birth rate?
It is the addition of new individuals to
the population.
What is crude birth rate?
Is the number of enfant per 100/
1000 of inhabitants annually.

7. How to calculate crude birth
rate?
Number of birth in a year
CBR= X1000
mid year population in the same year

8. What is General Fertility Rate
(GFR(?
It refers to the number of children born to a
constant number of women(Age of pregnancy)
in a year
How to calculate General Fertility Rate(GFR(?
Total number of birth in year x X 1000
Women aged 15-44 in year x

9. Age Specific Fertility Rate
(ASFR(
Is the number of birth annually per 1000
women of a specific age
Number of Birth in year to women aged x to (x+5(
ASFR=
X1000
Total women aged x (x+5(

10. TFR=Σ(ASFR x5)
Total fertility rate

11. Factor affecting birth rate
 fertility
 Fecundity
 Sex ratio

12. What is fecundity?
It is the biological capacity to reproduce
children
What is fertility?
It is the actual capacity to reproduce
children

13. A death rate is calculated by dividing the
number of deaths in a population in a year by
the midyear resident population
An infant mortality rate is based on period
files calculated by dividing the number of infant
deaths during a calendar year by the number of
live births reported in the same year.
Death Rate:

14. A Maternal mortality rate is a measure of
the likelihood that a pregnant woman will die
from maternal causes
Life span:
life span refers to how long a person can
possibly live.

15. Crude death rate
CDR is the total number of deaths in a year
divide by the average total population, as
CDR= ((total death in year) / (average total
population in that year)) x 1000
Age/ sex specific death rate
ASDR = (( number of deaths in a year of people
aged x to x +5) / ( average number of people in
that year aged x to x + 5))
Calculations of death rate:

16. Population movements
Human population is not scattered evenly over the
earth.
Migration:
The movement of people from one place to another
across the national/ external border
(In migration / out migration ) more than one year.

17. Push factors of migration
1. Overpopulation.
2. Religious persecution.
3. Lack of job opportunities.
4. Agriculture decline.
5. Conflict.
6. Political persecution.
7. Natural hazards- droughts, Floods, Famines,
Volcanic eruption
8. Limits of personal freedom

18. Pull factors of migration
1. Religious freedom.
2. Economic opportunity.
3. Land availability.
4. Political freedom.
5. Ethnic and family ties.

19. Impacts of migration on regions:
1. Language - multiple languages.
2. Religious freedom.
3. Customs/ traditions – exchanged.
4. Cultural diffusion.
5. Age categories.

20. Population structurePopulation structure
And characteristicsAnd characteristics

21. Definition of populationDefinition of population
structurestructure
 structurestructure is something that is built oris something that is built or
constructed.constructed.
 In social science it refers more broadly to aIn social science it refers more broadly to a
pattern of interrelationships among parts of apattern of interrelationships among parts of a
society.society.
Population structurePopulation structure refers to the basicrefers to the basic
demographic characteristics by which thedemographic characteristics by which the
population may be divided or described.population may be divided or described.

22.  Demographic characteristics are important
clues to the social and economic life of a
society.
 They are important to the study of population
because they are often closely associated with
population processes, both influencing and
being influenced by fertility as well as mortality
and migration.
 Differences in characteristics, such as
education, occupation,income,marital
status,race and ethnicity, religion and
settlement reflect variations on the life chances

23. Characteristics of Population
This includesThis includes

age,age,

sex,sex,

education,education,

Occupation,Occupation,

income,income,

settlement,settlement,

race or ethnic andrace or ethnic and

marital status etc.marital status etc.

24. The age/sex structure
The age/sex structure of a population is
actually one of the most important forces of
social change.
A high birth rate means; that 6 years from
now there will be more kids entering school
than before; that 18 years from now there
will be more new job hopefuls and college
freshmen than before, etc.

25. The age/sex structure
 in general, a population with more than aboutin general, a population with more than about
35% of its people under age 15 is35% of its people under age 15 is ““youngyoung””,,
and a population with more than about 10% ofand a population with more than about 10% of
its people aged 65 or older can be consideredits people aged 65 or older can be considered
““oldold””..

26. There are 3 major ways in which we canThere are 3 major ways in which we can
graphically or statistically quantify thegraphically or statistically quantify the
age structureage structure..
 constructing a population pyramid.constructing a population pyramid.
 calculating the average age of acalculating the average age of a
population,.population,.
 calculating the dependency ratio.calculating the dependency ratio.

27. what is a population pyramidwhat is a population pyramid??
 population pyramid or age/sex pyramid is apopulation pyramid or age/sex pyramid is a
graphic representation of the distribution of agraphic representation of the distribution of a
population by age and sex categories.population by age and sex categories.
 it is a device that allows us to look at theit is a device that allows us to look at the
percentage of population which is in eachpercentage of population which is in each
age-sex category.age-sex category.
 it is called a pyramid because theit is called a pyramid because the ““classicclassic””
picture is ofpicture is of a high DR in combinationa high DR in combination
with highwith high BRBR which characterized most ofwhich characterized most of
the world until recent times.the world until recent times.

28. How the population pyramid isHow the population pyramid is
plottedplotted
 Ages are marked off on the Y-axis; maleAges are marked off on the Y-axis; male
population totals (in absolute numbers orpopulation totals (in absolute numbers or
percentages of the total population of bothpercentages of the total population of both
sexes) for various age groups are shown onsexes) for various age groups are shown on
the negative side of the X-axis and femalethe negative side of the X-axis and female
population totals are shown on the positivepopulation totals are shown on the positive
side of the same axis.side of the same axis.
 Population pyramid can be drawn by takingPopulation pyramid can be drawn by taking
age data in single years, in 5-year ageage data in single years, in 5-year age
groups, or in any other age interval.groups, or in any other age interval.

29. Population Pyramid Summary forPopulation Pyramid Summary for
EgyptEgypt

31. Dependency ratioDependency ratio
 The dependency ratio is a useful indicator of the burdenThe dependency ratio is a useful indicator of the burden
that some age structures place on a population.that some age structures place on a population.
 The proportion of the children below 15 years, and olderThe proportion of the children below 15 years, and older
people 65 plus are two unproductive consumer categories-people 65 plus are two unproductive consumer categories-
thus called dependent population.thus called dependent population.
DependencyDependency
Ratio =Ratio =
Number of dependant populationNumber of dependant population
X10X10
00
Number of economically activeNumber of economically active
populationpopulation

32. Measuring the sex structureMeasuring the sex structure
 It is a common assumption that thereIt is a common assumption that there
are the numbers of males and femalesare the numbers of males and females
at each ageat each age –– actually this is not theactually this is not the
case.case.
 Population processes operatePopulation processes operate
differently to create inequalities in thedifferently to create inequalities in the
ratio of males to females (known asratio of males to females (known as sexsex
ratioratio).). Total male populationTotal male population
Sex Ratio =Sex Ratio = x 100x 100
Total female populationTotal female population

34. The Educational Status
 becoming educated is probably the most
dramatic and significant change that you can
introduce into your life.
 education became an important factor for
determining social status and economic
development.
 higher education status is associated with
greater occupational prestige.
 it affects generally negatively fertility and
death rates.

35. The main categories of educational
status in Egypt are:
 Illiterate
 Read and Write
 Removed His/Her Illiteracy
 Qualifications Less Than College
 Primary (below intermediate)
 Preparatory (above intermediate)
 Secondary and High Technical Secondary
 University Graduate and Above

36. The Occupational Status
 Occupation is an important characteristic
because it is one of the most defining aspects
of a person’s or society’s identity.
 it is a clue to education, income, and
residence, life style.
 it is an indicator of social status, pointing to a
person’s position in the societal hierarchy.
 Women have been increasing their levels of
income, labor force participation, and
occupational status relative to men, and this is
certainly related to declining levels of fertility.

37. The main categories of
occupations in Egypt:
First:
 Employed
 Unemployed
Second:
Different Categories

38. income
 in general,varying levels of education and
occupation within society groups determine the
income distributions in that society.
 the better educated you are the more money you
expect to earn in your life,and the more
prestigious job you have the more paying you
expect to receive.

39. Marital status
 in rural areas we find that the percentage of
married people is higher, while percentage of
singles is higher in urban areas.

40. The main categories of Marital
Status in Egypt are:
 SINGLE
 MARRIED
 MARRIAGE CONTRACT
 WIDOWED
 DIVORCED

41. Ethnicity and religion
-ethnic groups in a society –at least some of the
societies- reflect variations in the population
characteristics.
-for example; minority groups members in USA,to the
extent that they have less education,lower levels of
occupational prestige, and lower income, also tend
to have higher fertility.
-religiosity seems to play a factor in fertility. It may
slow down the adoption of modern low fertility
attitudes.

42. Settlement (rural or urban(
-any society is classified into urban and rural.
-the urban society is further divided into large cities,
small cities etc.
- unlike rural area urban areas is characterized by
high population density( the number of people per
unit area), and industrial occupations.
-the main occupation in rural areas is agriculture.
-both rural and urban areas have their characteristic
social systems.

43. Settlement (rural or urban(
The main categories of Settlement in
Egypt:
1. URBAN
2. RURAL

45. Major Population Problems In
Developing countries
1. High annual population growth rate (Why?)
2. Mal distribution of population:
a) Geographically
b) Age categories
c) Sex distribution
d) Education and other socio-economic
characteristics
3. Imbalance between population number and
resources

46. 4. Low demographic characteristics (loss and high
investment costs)
a. Life expectancy at birth
b. High illiteracy rate
c. High unemployment (economic efficiency)
d. Low labor morals and skills