Investment Exposure and trends reviewed 2008

1. ULI Fall Meeting – Miami Beach, FL
The Credit Crunch Get Over It
October 2008
Jason Spicer
Managing Director
Page 0

2. “Too Much” Building in the ’80s…Not a Concern Today
US New Construction Completions by Property Type
10.0%
Retail Office Industrial Apartment
9.0%
8.0%
As % of Inventory
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
Page 1
Source: REIS, DTZ

3. Tech Firms Spurred “Too Much” Office Absorption in the
’90s…Not This Time
Office Absorption vs. Office Employment Growth
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
Office Employment % Growth Absorption As % of Inventory
Page 2
Source: REIS, DTZ

4. “Too Much” Commercial Leverage in the ‘00s?
Looks that Way!...
US Commercial Mortgages Outstanding
$2,500 19%
17%
$2,000
15%
$1,500 13%
$1,000 11%
9%
$500
7%
$0 5%
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
Source: US Federal Reserve,
BEA, DTZ
Total in $ Blns ( L ) As % of GDP ( R ) Page 3

5. …A Uniquely American Problem…
Asia Pacific $2.9 trillion US $4.1 trillion
Europe excluding UK $3.87 trillion UK $1.35 trillion
Page 4
Source: DTZ

6. …Thanks, America: REITs, Listed Property Shares Drop In
Global Lockstep…
Index (Jan 2006 = 100)
160
150
140
Credit
130 Crunch
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Oct-06
Oct-07
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Jan-06
Jun-06
Jan-07
Jun-07
Jan-08
Jun-08
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
May-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
May-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
May-08
Sep-06
Sep-07
Apr-06
Aug-06
Apr-07
Aug-07
Apr-08
Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
EU - European Public Real estate Association INDEX US - Bloomberg US REIT
Australian S&P/ASX 200 Property Trusts Index UK - FTSE ASX Real Estate
Japan - TSEREIT Index
Source: Bloomberg, DTZ Research
Page 5

7. $50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$0
2001.1
Source: DTZ ,RCA
2001.2
2001.3
2001.4
2002.1
Asia
2002.2
2002.3
2002.4
2003.1
Europe
2003.2
2003.3
2003.4
US
2004.1
2004.2
2004.3
2004.4
2005.1
2005.2
2005.3
Global Investment/Sales Transaction Activity, $ Mlns
2005.4
2006.1
…As Have Investment Sales Transactions…
2006.2
2006.3
2006.4
2007.1
2007.2
2007.3
2007.4
2008.1
2008.2
Page 6

8. …Though Volume Only Now Beginning to Fall in Asia..
Property Investment Transaction Volume, 1H08 vs. 1H07
Beijing
Singapore
Moscow
Hong Kong
Tokyo
New York MSA
Greater London
Warsaw Region
Paris/Île-de-France
Los Angeles MSA
Washington DC MSA
Greater Berlin
Prague
-100.00% -50.00% 0.00% 50.00% 100.00% 150.00%
Source: DTZc Page 7

9. US Cap Rates Have Moved Up 50-75 bps,
Equating to a 10-15% Value Decline…
US Cap Rates by Property Type
10.5%
10.0%
Apt. Office (CBD) Retail (Open-Air Ctrs)
9.5%
9.0%
8.5%
8.0%
7.5%
7.0%
6.5%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
01Q1
01Q2
01Q3
01Q4
02Q1
02Q2
02Q3
02Q4
03Q1
03Q2
03Q3
03Q4
04Q1
04Q2
04Q3
04Q4
05Q1
05Q2
05Q3
05Q4
06Q1
06Q2
06Q3
06Q4
07Q1
07Q2
07Q3
07Q4
08Q1
08Q2
Page 8
Source: DTZ, RCA

10. …Similar to Pricing Corrections in Europe, Asia…
Representative European, Asian Office Markets,
Current Office Yields and Increase Since Peak
9.0 175
Yield Increase in BPs
Increase Office Yield
150
2Q08 Office Yield
8.0
7.0 125
100
6.0
75
5.0 50
4.0 25
3.0 -
)
e)
E)
n
ue
m
o
g
)
ity
BD
rli
sl
ijin
ac
da
(W
ag
(C
Be
O
Be
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Pl
er
Pr
on
on
st
s
ris
fle
nd
Am
nd
Pa
af
Lo
Lo
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e
or
ap
ng
Si
Page 9
Source: DTZ

11. 2008-2010 Construction
Completions As % of Inventory
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Moscow
Beijing
Bangalore
Hong Kong
Barcelona
115% 50% 28%
London (City)
Paris (IDF)
Houston
Singapore
Atlanta
Chicago
Brussels
Madrid
Amsterdam
Dallas
Vienna
Tokyo (5-ku)
Frankfurt
Construction/Inventory
London (WE)
Munich
Hamburg
San
Major Global Office Markets, Construction vs. Vacancy, 2Q08
Boston
Los Angeles
The US Can Spell “Schadenfreude”, Too…
Milan
Rome
…While Construction Overseas Is Far Worse:
Stockholm
Avail/Vac Rate
New York
Berlin
Source: DTZ
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Page 10
Current Availability or Vacancy Rate

12. “Please Look Closely”
Jane Jacobs, 1916 - 2006
Page 11

13. A Very Large Number
$1.2 Trillion
8x Annual US Federal Govt Budget Deficit in 2007
6x All (inflation-adjusted) losses from S&L crisis, 1986 - 92
5x Interest Payments on US Govt Debt, 2007
4x Value of all real estate captured by the NCREIF Index
3x Value of Manhattan Commercial Property Stock, 2008
2x All Bank Write-Downs Since 2006 (Through Sept. 2008)
2x Direct Costs of War in Iraq (2002 – present)
1x All Sub-prime Mortgages Outstanding Pre-Crunch
???????????? Page 12

14. The Cost of Our Crude Oil Imports Since 9-11
Crude Oil Net Exports (Imports) By Country in Total $
Blns, Since 2002
$1,750
$1,000
$ Blns
$250
($500)
($1,250)
Russia + Caspian
Norway
Venezuela
Canada
EU Remainder
China
Japan
Eurozone 15
Persian Gulf States
African OPEC Four
Mexico
USA
India
Korea
States
Source:
JODI, DTZ
Page 13

15. A Coincidence?
1.2 Trillion
Remaining Barrels of Proven Oil Reserves Worldwide
Page 14

16. …. Crude Oil Reserves May Have A Limited Horizon…
Time Bomb?
Oil Reserves and Production By Year , 2007 - Nations With Largest Reserves
4.5
Russian Federation
4
Current Production Per Year, Blns
Saudi Arabia
3.5
3
Barrels
2.5 US
Canada +
2 OIL SANDS
Iran
China
1.5 Canada
Mexico United Arab Emirates
Nigeria
1 Libya Kuwait
Algeria Iraq
Norway
0.5 Brazil Venezuela
Angola Qatar Kazakhstan
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Years of Reserves Left At Current Production Rate Source:
JODI, BP
Page 15

17. And While We Are Shifting Closer To Home For Oil…
US Oil and Petroleum Products Imports:
Persian Gulf Countries vs. Canada, Mexico
2,750
Persian Gulf Canada Mexico
2,550
2,350
Thousands of Barrels Per Day
2,150
1,950
1,750
1,550
1,350
1,150
950
750
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: EIA
Page 16

18. …We May Not Be Able To Look South of the Border For
Help Much Longer…
October 22, 2008
“Mexico's oil output for September was 2.72 million barrels a day, the lowest
monthly level since 1995, Pemex said this week. For the year's first nine months,
Mexico's output fell 10% from the year-earlier period and exports plunged 18%.
Mexico's ability to stem the slide in oil production carries important consequences for
its financial stability, the U.S. and the global oil market. Mexico has been one of the
world's top 10 producers since the late 1970s, and has long been one of the top three
sources of foreign oil for the U.S. Its decline will aggravate the U.S.'s reliance on
the Middle East for oil. Mexico also relies on oil export money for nearly 40% of
government spending.
Like many world oil producers, Mexico has aging oil fields. The country is believed
to hold vast untapped fields in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, but Pemex lacks
the technology to access them. At current rates of decline, Mexico could become
a net oil importer within four or five years.” (emphasis added)
Page 17

19. ….Asian Trading Partners Rely Heavily On Middle East Oil…
% of Net Oil Imports Coming from Persian Gulf/Middle
East, 2006 or 2007 (where available)
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
China
Japan
US
India
Korea
Page 18

20. ….Which They Use To Make Things To Sell to the USA…
Balance of Trade (Net Exports), 2007
South
Korea
+33b ( #2) +13b (#2)
+48b
(#1) Japan
+83b (#1) USA
China +32b (#3)
+256b
Sources: National Trade Ministries, CIA, World Bank
(#1) Page 19

21. …Hence the Geography of Sovereign Wealth Funds:
Resource-Rich Nations and Asian Savers
Sovereign Wealth Funds and National Savings Funds, $ Blns
UAE
Singapore
Norway
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
China
Russia
Canada
Australia
Libya
Qatar
Alaska
Korea
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000
Page 20
Source: WSJ, Forbes, Morgan Stanley, DTZ

22. .. Both Groups Buying Up Pieces of Western Banks…
SWF Corporate Equity/Debt Infusions To Banks, Last 12-18 Months:
Country Target
Singapore UBS, Standard Chartered, Merrill Lynch, Barclays
Abu Dhabi Citigroup
China Morgan Stanley, Barclays
Oman UBS
Dubai HSBC, Deutsche Bank
Kuwait Citigroup, Merrill Lynch
Qatar CSFB, Barclays
Libya Fortis, Unicredit
Source: DTZ, compiled from publicly available information Page 21

23. To Date, Asians Have Been Strongest Holders of US Debt
Obligations, In All Forms…
% US Securities Held by Foreigners, 1994 - 2007
60
2007 Foreign Securities Ownership
Excl.
50 % of Tax
$ Mils Total Havens
Asian quot;Saversquot; 2,690,629 28% 34%
Tax Havens 1,953,032 20%
40 UK 920,630 9% 12%
Canada 475,196 5% 6%
Belgium 396,431 4% 5%
%
30 Ireland 342,028 4% 4%
Switzerland 328,982 3% 4%
Netherlands 321,378 3% 4%
20 Persian Gulf States 308,394 3% 4%
Germany 265,770 3% 3%
France 221,164 2% 3%
Australia 165,387 2% 2%
10 Russia 147,699 2% 2%
Group Subtotal 8,536,720 87% 84%
Total 9,771,725 100% 100%
0
1994 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Equities
Dec. Treasuries JuneUS Govt Agency (MBS) JuneCorporate + Other Debt
Mar. June June June June
Source: Treasury, Federal Reserve
Page 22

24. …And Are The New Class of Real Estate Investors…
10 Nations to Watch in Real Estate
3. Norway – 5. China –
Property Adviser CIC Established 2007,
Selected 2008, To RE Investment Manager
Invest 2009? Search 2008?
6. Russia – FGF
Established 2007, To
7. Canada – CPPIB,
Invest 2009?
AIMCo
9. Qatar - 10. S. Korea –
QIA KIC,
4. Kuwait – New RE
St. Martin’s (FGF), GRF 1. UAE – Allocations
ADIA 2008
8. Australia –
FFMA,
2. Singapore – Supers
GIC, Temasek
Page 23

25. ….As They Buy Into Storied Western Developers,
Investors….
SWF Corporate Equity/Debt Infusions, Last 12-18 Months:
Carlyle 7.5%
Related Companies 20% (Debt)
British Land 3%
Kor Hotel Group (LA) 50%
Apollo 9%
Blackstone 10%
Chelsfield (London) 20%
.
Source: DTZ, compiled from publicly available information
Page 24

26. ….Not To Mention The US Skyline….
Net Buyers/Sellers of US Property in 1H2008
Offshore $3,878
Opportunity Fund $2,133
Institution $884
Corporate/User -$900
Private -$2,763
REIT/REOC -$3,504
.
00
00
00
00
00
$0
0
0
0
0
00
00
00
00
,0
,0
,0
,0
,0
4,
3,
2,
1,
$2
$1
$3
$4
$5
-$
-$
-$
-$
Millions
Source: DTZ, RCA
Page 25

27. …They’re HEERRREEEE…Do The Nationalities Look
Familiar At This Point? But Don’t Worry…
Top 2008 US Investment/Sales, An International Affair
GM 1301 Chrysler One Miami 527
120 Park
Bldg Sixth Bldg Sansome Center Madison
$2 B $1.45 B $900 M $525 M $370 M $265 M $225 M
Middle German Middle Middle Korean Japanese Japanese
Eastern Eastern Eastern
Source: RCA, DTZ
Page 26

28. …Despite The Temptations for Conspiracy Theorists…
2008 Oil SWF
US Fleetwide Miles Per Gallon by Marketing Group, MY 2008
Acquisitions
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
Toyota Honda HK Nissan BMW VW AVG. GM Ford Chrysler
Source: EPA, DTZ, Fox Mulder & Dana Scully
Page 27

29. We Aren’t Alone - Sovereign Wealth Funds,
Key 2008 Acquisitions in London
Chelsea Willis Bldg Kensington London Metropole
Barracks Lime Street High St Bridge Tower Whitehall St
London London London London London
$1.9 Bil $800 M $640 M $300 M $260 M
Middle Middle Middle Middle Middle
Eastern Eastern Eastern Eastern Eastern
Source: DTZ
Page 28

30. We Aren’t Alone - Sovereign Wealth Funds,
Key 2008 Acquisitions in Europe and Asia
Roma Est Iso Omena Menara YNH
The Westin Shopping Ctr ”Big Apple” Mall Kuala
Tokyo Rome Helsinki Lampur
$715 M $630 M $535 M $290 M
Singapore Singapore Singapore Middle
50% 40% Eastern
Source: DTZ
Page 29

31. Oil Nations: Why Build These Vast Cities?...
King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia City of Silk, Kuwait
$27 billion, Projected Population 1.5 million $85 billion, Projected Population: 750,000
Dubailand, Dubai UAE $65 billion, Projected “Population”: 2.5 million
Page 30

32. …Especially Zero-Carbon and Car-Free Ones?
Masdar, Abu Dhabi UAE, $22 billion
Projected Population: 30,000
Page 31

33. …To Employ Young Locals For A Post-Oil Future!
Arabian Peninsula vs quot;Developedquot; World (G8+),
Population by Age Cohort - 2010 Projection
0 to 14
15 to 34
Age Cohort
35 to 54
55 to 74
75+
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
% of Pop
Source: McKinsey, Global Insight, BP, IIF
Arabia Developed Page 32

34. …Asians Look Into a Childless Future…
North Asia (China, Japan, Korea) Fertility Rate - Children Per Woman
1950-2050
7
6
China Japan Republic of Korea
5
4
Replacement 3
Level = 2.1
2
1
1950-1955
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050
Page 33
Source: UN Population Division

35. …Exacerbated By A Lack of Female Children…
North Asia (China, Japan, Korea) Net Reproduction Rate
Daughters Per Woman 1950-2050
3
China Japan Republic of Korea
2.5
2
1.5
Replacement
Level = 1
1
0.5
0
1950-1955
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050
Source: UN Population Division Page 34

36. …Which Coupled With Limited Migration…
North Asia (China, Japan, Korea) Net Migration Rate, 1950-2050
6 US Level =
+/- 4
5
Rate Per 1,000 Residents
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
1950-1955
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050
China Net migration rate Japan Net migration rate Korea Net migration rate
Source: UN Population Division Page 35

37. …Makes for Shrinking and Ageing Societies…
North Asia (China, Japan, Korea)
Median Age vs. Population Growth Rate 1950-2050
60 3.5
3
Population Growth Rate
2.5
Median Age (Years)
45
2
1.5
(%)
30 1
0.5
0
15
-0.5
-1
0 -1.5
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
China Population growth rate Japan Population growth rate Korea Population growth rate
China Median age Japan Median age Korea Median age
Page 36
Source: UN Population Division

38. …Which They Must Invest For…
10 Largest Non-US Pension Funds
“Big Japanese fund may shift assets
Total assets $ Move would create opportunities for absolute-
Fund Country Mlns return and active managers”
Government Pension Inv. Japan $1,072,429
June 9, 2008
Government Pension Norway $370,985
ABP Netherlands $314,969 Signs that Japanese regulators are seeking ways to
National Pension Korea $231,966 boost returns of the country's huge public pension fund
could eventually open new opportunities for foreign
Local Government Officials Japan $144,447
asset managers in areas such as absolute return
Postal Savings Fund Taiwan $129,397
and alternatives.
PFZW Netherlands $128,615
Canada Pension Plan Canada $123,903 Executives with foreign and domestic managers alike
Pension Fund Association Japan $112,698
said recommendations in May by Japan's Council on
Economic and Fiscal Policy for managing the ¥150
Ontario Teachers Canada $110,600
trillion ($1.4 trillion) Government Pension Investment
Fund, Tokyo, are early steps in a process that could
see more of that fund's assets moved from low-yielding
Japanese government bonds to actively managed and
absolute-return strategies.
Source: Watson Wyatt, P&I Online Page 37

39. Haven’t We Gone Through This Before?
Middle Easterners?
Germans Russians Japanese Chinese? Asians?
The British Are Coming!
Page 38

40. …Drop in Oil Prices Doesn’t Change Story That Much…
Petrodollar Foreign Assets, $ Trillions, Oil Prices at:
$30 pb $50 pb $70 pb $100 pb
$14
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: McKinsey, Global Insight, BP, IIF
Page 39

41. …So If You Think This is Merely A Repeat of the 70s…
US Oil Consumption and Prices, 1965 - 2007
$100
Consumption Prices Per Barrel, 2007 dollars
21,000 $90
Thousands of Barrels Per Day
$80
19,000
$70
Price per Barrel
17,000 $60
$50
15,000
$40
$30
13,000
$20
11,000 $10
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: EIA, BP, JODI Page 40

42. …Think Again
52%
Source: EIA, BP, JODI Page 41

43. …Something *IS* Different “This Time”…
Global Oil Consumption: US, China and India, 1965 - 2007
12,000 38%
India Daily Consumption
36%
Thousands of Barrels Per Day
10,000 China Daily Consumption
US % of Total Consumption
US Share of Global Oil Consumption
34%
8,000
32%
6,000
30%
4,000
28%
2,000 26%
- 24%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: EIA, BP, JODI Page 42

44. …All That Oil Is Imported…
Net Oil Imports, Ths. Barrels/Day 1990 - 2006
13,000
11,500 China & India Japan US
10,000
8,500
7,000
5,500
4,000
2,500
1,000
-500
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: EIA, BP, JODI Page 43

45. And It Could Get Much Worse….
Page 44

46. A Brief Review of History…
1st Century (AD/CE) - Global GDP
PPP Basis
Roman
Empire
22%
China
26%
Rest of
Asia
8%
Africa
9%
India
33% All Others
Source: Maddison
2%
Source: DTZ
Page 45

47. Notice Anything Yet?
Year 1000 - Global GDP Rest of
PPP Basis Poland
Asia Africa
11%
7% 12%
China All Others
22% 8%
India Western
28% Europe
Source: Maddison
Source: DTZ Japan 9% Page 46
3%

48. A Trend?
Year 1500 - Global GDP
PPP Basis Poland Rest of
7% Asia
8% All Others
19%
Russia
3%
China Britain
26% 1%
quot;USAquot;
0.3%
France
4%
India
26% Japan Germany
3% 3%
Source: Maddison
Page 47

49. See it yet?
Year 1820 - Global GDP
PPP Basis Rest of Russian
Asia Empire
Africa
6% 6%
5%
Britain
6%
China
40% USA
2%
France
6.6%
India Germany
19% Japan
5%
4%
Source: Maddison Page 48

50. UK, US Dominance A Blip In History
Year 1913 - Global GDP Year 1950 - Global GDP
PPP Basis PPP Basis USA
Britain 26%
All Others Russian Soviet France
6.5%
17% Empire USA Union 4%
9% 18% 10%
Rest of All Others
Asia 20%
5%
France
5.3% Rest of Germany
Asia 5%
Eastern
5%
Europe Germany Japan
5% British 9% 3%
Empire Eastern India
20% China Japan Europe S.+ C. 4%
4% America China
9% 3%
7% 5%
Source: Maddison
Page 49

51. China, India: Reverting to the Mean/Historic Norms
Year 2007 - Global GDP Russia
PPP Basis 3.5% United
India
Japan Kingdom
People's 5.1%
7.1% 3.4%
Republic
Brazil
of China
11.7% 3.0%
Mexico
2.2%
South
Eurozone
Korea
17.1%
2.0%
Canada
1.9%
United All Others
States 20.1%
22.8%
Source: World Bank Page 50

52. The Case For India
Largest Fluent English-Speaking
Populations
Total English
Country Speakers
United States 251,388,301
India 90,000,000
Nigeria 79,000,000
United Kingdom 59,600,000
Philippines 42,500,000
Germany 36,000,000
Canada 25,246,220
Australia 17,357,833
Pakistan 17,000,000
Source: CIA, Census
France 16,000,000
Page 51

53. It’s Payback Time!
(London)
October 23rd, 2003
“Britain's industrialisation was secured by destroying the manufacturing
capacity of India...Throughout the late 18th and 19th centuries, India
was forced to supply raw materials to Britain's manufacturers, but
forbidden to produce competing finished products...Now the jobs we
stole 200 years ago are returning to India. There is a profound historical
irony here. Indian workers can outcompete British workers today
because Britain smashed their ability to compete in the past. Having
destroyed India's own industries, the East India Company and the
colonial authorities obliged its people to speak our language,
adopt our working practices and surrender their labour to
multinational corporations. Workers in call centres in Germany and
Holland are less vulnerable than ours, as Germany and Holland
were less successful colonists, with the result that fewer people in
the poor world now speak their languages.” (emphasis added)
Page 52

54. Putting It All Together:
Emergence of Industrial China, India
+
Flat Oil Production
=
New Floor For Oil Prices ($50? $60?)
Massive Wealth Creation in China, India
Massive Wealth Transfer to Net Oil Producing Nations
and Cities…
FOR NOW…
Page 53

55. Will Technology Turn These Areas Into New Saudi Arabias?
Athabasca Sands
Canada
1.7 trillion barrels
10% recoverable
=170 billion barrels
oil
Orinoco Heavy
Bakken Formation
Sands
USA/Canada
Venezuela
167 - 300 billion barrels
1.2 trillion barrels
1% - 18% - 50%
22% recoverable
recoverable?
= 267 billion
= 3 billion barrels oil?
barrels
150 billion barrels oil?
Poor quality, dirty
“Orimulsion”
Page 54

56. How Much of City Migration Reflects Oil Prices?
Urban Population Growth - Key Cities, 2006 vs. 2007
15,000
10,000
New Residents
5,000
-
(5,000)
(10,000) 2006 2007
(15,000)
Manhattan
Chicago
Francisco
Boston
Angeles
(county)
(city)
(city)
(city)
Los
(city)
San
Source: Census Page 55

57. How Much of Driving Decline Is The Economy vs. Oil Prices?
US Highway Driving ,1995 - 2008
3,100 10,200
3,000 10,000
Billions of Miles Driven
2,900 9,800
Miles Per Capita
2,800 9,600
2,700 9,400
2,600 9,200
2,500 9,000
2,400 8,800
YOY to July 2008
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Miles Per Capita Total Highway Driving
Source: Federal Highway Administration, Census Page 56

58. Will Ridership Reverse Itself If Oil Drops Even Lower?
US Public Transit Ridership, # Trips
12,001
10,001
# Public Transit Trips
8,001
6,001
4,001
2,001
1
1H07
1H08
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
BUS COMMUTER PARATRANSIT HEAVY LIGHT TROLLEY OTHER
Source: APRA Page 57

59. …Or Will Light Rail Have Lasting Impact on Development
Patterns?…
Miles of Light Rail Track in Major US Cities
1000
900 938.6
800 814.8
700
600
557.4
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000 Current 2010-2012
Source: DTZ, APRA, Various Local Transportation Agencies Page 58

60. …As We Rebuild “The Greatest Streetcar System in the
World”…
Jane Jacobs, 1916 – 2006
“Dark Age Ahead”, 2004
“Much has been written about the General Motors campaign that
replaced 146 electric-powered mass transit systems with General
Motors gasoline-powered buses.”
“The [GM] Consortium bought electric streetcar lines, demolished
them, and replaced them with buses, then resold the lines, tying up
the sales with contracts that specified future suppliers of buses, oil
and tires. In the 1930s with this tactic perfected, scores of transit
systems were bought by a GM subsidiary called National City
Lines….(which) together with two additional puppet subsidiaries, by
1950 controlled transit systems in eighty-three cities.”
“In 1946, when these systems were succumbing to the GM vision…a
former employee wrote from Florida, where he had been serving as a
naval commander, to alert hundreds of mayors…he asked what is still
a good question: ”Who will rebuild them for you?” Again, belatedly,
Congress and the Department of Justice took notice. Nine
corporations and seven of their executives were indicted for illegal
acts in restraint of trade, tried and convicted.” (pages 186; 38, 39 and 40)
Page 59

61. …Light Rail and Transit-Oriented Development…In Texas?
UNT Study Evidences A Value Premium.
Lake
Renaissance Initiative: a long- Highlands
range plan to pave the way for Town Center:
transit-oriented development; a new DART
a number of infrastructure rail station
improvements have been will be built to
identified; High Street service the
Residential (Trammell Crow) LHTC which
hired to develop TOD sites in calls for 1.3
Carrollton msf of
residential
Cityville at Southwestern space,
Medical District: 263 300,000-sf of
residential units and 43,000- retail and 50-
sf of retail space 100,000-sf of
The Butler: 460 apartments office space
as well as retail space
Broadstone
Ambrose: 300
W Dallas –
residential units
Victory: 252
with retail below;
rooms, 61
the development
residences
is a direct result
Victory Tower of the Green Line
(Mandarin The House: 28 story expansion
Oriental): 120 high-end condo
rooms, 90 building designed by
residences Phillippe Starck and Source: DART, DTZ Page 60
YOO

62. Or Will We Forget, Again….Until Next Time?
“Let this be our national goal, at the end of this decade, in the
year 1980, the United States will not be dependent on any
other country for the energy we need”
Richard M. Nixon, 1974
% of US Oil Imported
In 1973 - 35%
In 2007- 60%
Page 61

63. …Reality Check…
US Oil and Petroleum Product Use By Sector,
2007 Industrial
25%
Transportation
69%
Residential
4%
Commercial
2%
Source: EIA Page 62

64. …Some Areas More Heavily Dependent Than Others…
States With Highest/Lowest Per Capita Petroleum Consumption: Total Energy
Consumption
Residential Sector Use Motor Gasoline Total Per Capita
Arizona DC DC Rhode Island
Louisiana New York Rhode Island New York
Florida Rhode Island New York California
Lowest
California Hawaii Arizona Massachusetts
Hawaii Illinois Michigan Arizona
Maine Wyoming Alaska Alaska
Vermont South Carolina Louisiana Wyoming
New Hampshire Alabama Wyoming Louisiana
Highest
Connecticut Vermont Texas North Dakota
Rhode Island Mississippi Hawaii Texas
Source: EIA Page 63

65. Electric Car? Electricity Not Dependent on Foreign Oil
US Electricity Generation by Power Source, 2006
Nuclear
19%
Petroleum
2%
Other
Natl Gas 1%
20% Coal
49%
Hydro Renewables
7% 2%
Source: EIA Page 64

66. US, China and India – Clean Coal Technology?
World's Proven Coal Reserves, 2006
All Others
USA
19%
27%
S. Africa
5%
Australia
9%
India
10% Russia
17%
China
13%
Source: EIA Page 65

67. Conclusions
Global Yield Increases, Investment Volume Declines: No
Markets Spared
US Real Estate Developers: Bright Spot! No Overbuilding
New Kids On the Block: SWFs from Oil Wealth and Asian
Savers
Significant Investment To Continue Post-Financial
Recovery
Can’t Beat ‘Em, Join ‘Em? Ignore SWFs At Your Peril
Look Closely At Energy Usage Patterns, They Will Dictate:
Strength of SWF Investment in US and other nations
Attractiveness of Certain Metros, Submarkets,
Microlocations in US
Page 66