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An interview with Kushal Kumar, the Founder and Managing Partner at Numen Capital LLP, an investment management firm at the marcus evans European Pensions & Investments Summit 2013 provides insights on how innovation can help reduce risk.
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The New Toolkit for Managing Investment Risk: Interview with: Kushal Kumar, Founder and Managing Partner, Numen Capital LLP
1. The New Toolkit for Managing Investment Risk
How can investors minimise and We should anticipate a lot of fiscal
better manage risk? restructuring of welfare entitlements
within economies. We also should be
We must be innovative and look for ready for debt reduction measures from
solutions beyond the traditional toolkit. policy markets and central banks via
As an example, the traditional historically untested policy actions.
economist’s approach to leveraged Political dynamics will remain in flux
sovereigns is outdated and will not work through this period.
in today’s world. The markets that
investors operate in now are historically
unique in the amount of leverage debt
still existing in the system.
Interview with: Kushal Kumar, One approach which worked for us, both
Founder and Managing Partner, to identify opportunity and to minimise
Numen Capital LLP risk, was to adapt our tested corporate
Risk
toolkit and integrate it in such a way as
to apply to sovereign issuers.
When looking for solutions to identify
management
opportunity and mitigate risk, investors At a portfolio level, risk management
should “adapt their corporate toolkit and should be focused on verifying risk via
integrate it in such a way that applies to scenario based simulations (rather than
should be
sovereign issuers”, says Kushal Kumar, model based) on a continuous basis.
Founder and Managing Partner, Numen
Capital LLP. “A smaller portfolio should This should be aimed at identifying the
focused on
be preferred, rather than a large basket real consistency between an
constructed purely for diversification organisation’s market views and its
needs,” he adds. actual portfolio position, and thereby
verifying
closing any gaps in managing risk. A
From an investment management firm smaller and more granular portfolio
at the marcus evans European should be preferred, rather than a large
risk on a
Pensions & Investments Summit basket constructed purely for
2013, in Montreux, Switzerland, 22 - 24 diversification needs.
April, Kushal discusses why investments
continuous
will perform better when, amongst other Why is cash flow and document
things, managers adapt their existing analysis an advantage for
corporate credit skills to a new world of investors?
basis
“ex-risk free credit assets” alongside an
approach where risk management is a Last year, our investments in Greek
continuous process aimed at identifying bonds performed very well and such
inconsistencies between views and trades were entirely driven by cash flow
portfolio positions. and document analysis. Cash flow
analysis enabled us to identify the real
What is your outlook for investing fulcrum beyond which only binary
in the Eurozone? outcomes could exist. An analysis of
documentation related to the bonds
We are very constructive on Eurozone. enabled us to identify further which
All the signs are that fiscal union is bonds (e.g. International law bonds)
happening in front of our eyes in a very could do better than others (e.g.
gradual but definitive manner. With this domestic law bonds).
background in mind, we anticipate that
European risky assets will significantly What are your predictions for the
outperform other risky assets, especially economic and political landscape?
once you adjust for liquidity and
curre ncy. W e an ti cipa te sprea d Economic growth across the Eurozone is
convergence within Europe although one expected to remain modest over the
needs to be mindful of the absolute medium term. The deleveraging will
level of interest rates here. take many years to fully materialise.
2. About the European Pensions & Investments Summit 2013
The Investment Network –
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About Numen Capital LLP
Numen Capital LLP was established as an Investment Manager in 2008 by Filippo Lanza and Kushal Kumar and currently manages
two credit funds focused on Europe with an aggregate AUM of USD 250 million. Numen’s investment philosophy is based on a
strong understanding of credit fundamentals that encompasses a wide range of aspects from Enterprise Valuation, Cash-flow
Analysis, Prospectus / Document analysis, Creditor rights and Knowledge of bankruptcy proceedings.
www.numencapital.com
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