دورة تدريبية للعاملين في الأمانة العامة لجامعة الدول العربية ومندوبيات الدول العربية لديها ضمن أنشطة إدارة التدريب وتطوير أساليب العمل- جامعة الدول العربية عقدت الدورة على مدى 15 ساعة تدريبية خلال الفترة 18-20/ 10/ 2016

1. ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ‬
‫ﺩ‬/‫ﳏﻤﻮﺩ‬‫ﻓﺘﺢ‬‫ﺍﷲ‬
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“Prediction is very difficult,
especially if it's about the future.”
Nils Bohr

3. ‫ـﺎت‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ـﺤﺘﻮ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ا‬
‫اﻟﻣﻘدﻣﺔ‬
‫اﻟﮭدف‬
‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬ ‫ﻣﻔﮭوم‬
‫ﻓﯾﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﯾﺳﺗﺧدم‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺟﺎﻻت‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫أﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬
‫أھﻣﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﺗ‬‫ﻧ‬‫ﺑؤ‬
‫اﻟﺗ‬ ‫أﺳﻠوب‬ ‫اﺧﺗﯾﺎر‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﯾﯾر‬‫ﻧ‬‫ﺑؤ‬
‫اﻟﺗ‬ ‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬‫ﻧ‬‫ﺑؤ‬
1-‫ﻧظﺎﻣﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﯾر‬ ‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬
2-‫ﻧظﺎﻣﯾﺔ‬ ‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬ 3

4. ‫ـﺔ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ﻣ‬‫ـﺪ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ﻣ‬
‫ﺷﮭد‬‫اﻟﻌﺎﻟم‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫اﻟﺣﻘﺑﺔ‬‫اﻻﺧﯾرة‬‫ﻋدة‬‫ﺗﻐﯾرات‬‫و‬‫ﺗﺣوﻻت‬‫ﻛﺑﯾرة‬‫ﺷﻣﻠت‬‫ﺷﺗﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺟﺎﻻت‬‫اﻟﺣﯾﺎه‬.‫ﻓﻣﻧذ‬‫ظﮭور‬‫اﻟﺛورة‬‫اﻟﺻﻧﺎﻋﯾﮫ‬‫و‬‫ﻣﻔﮭوم‬‫اﻟﻌوﻟﻣﺔ‬،‫ﺗﺳﻌ‬‫ﻰ‬
‫اﻟﺣﻛوﻣﺎت‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﺻﻌﯾد‬‫اﻟﻛﻠﻰ‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫ﺗﺑﻧﻰ‬‫ﻣﺧﺗﻠف‬‫اﻻﺟراءات‬‫و‬‫اﻟﺳﯾ‬‫ﺎﺳﯾﺎت‬
‫اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﺷﺄﻧﮭﺎ‬‫أن‬‫ﺗﺣﻘق‬‫اﻻھداف‬‫اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﻣرﺟوة‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺗﺣﻘﯾق‬
‫اﻟﻧﻣو‬،‫اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدى‬‫ﺧﻠق‬‫ﻓرص‬‫ﻟﻠﻌﻣل‬‫و‬‫اﺳﺗﻘرار‬‫اﻻﺳﻌﺎر‬‫أﻣﺎ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟ‬‫ﻣﺳﺗوى‬
‫اﻟﺟزﺋﻰ‬‫ﺗﺳﻌﻰ‬‫اﻟﺷرﻛﺎت‬‫اﻟﻌﻣﻼﻗﺔ‬‫و‬‫اﻟﺻﻐﯾرة‬‫و‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻧﺎھﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﺻﻐر‬‫إ‬‫ﻟﻰ‬‫اﺗﺧﺎذ‬
‫اﻟﻘرارات‬‫ﻟﺗﺣﻘﯾق‬‫أﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻣﺳﺗوى‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﻣﺑﯾﻌﺎت‬‫ﻟﺗﻌظﯾم‬‫أرﺑﺎﺣﮭﺎ‬‫داﺧل‬‫اﻻﺳواق‬
‫اﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬.
‫ﺳواء‬‫ﻛﺎﻧت‬‫ﺣﻛوﻣﺔ‬‫أم‬‫ﻣﻧظﻣﺔ‬‫أم‬‫ﺷرﻛﺔ‬‫ﻣﺎ‬‫ﺗﺳﻌﻰ‬‫ﻻﺗﺧﺎذ‬‫ﻗرارا‬‫ﻣﺎ‬‫ﻓﻼ‬‫ﺷك‬‫أ‬‫ن‬
‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫دورا‬‫ﻣﮭﻣﺎ‬‫و‬‫ﺑﺎرزا‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ‬‫اﺗﺧﺎذ‬،‫اﻟﻘرارات‬‫ذﻟك‬‫أن‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﻣﺎ‬‫ھو‬
‫إﻟﻰ‬‫رﺣﻠﺔ‬‫ﺳﻔر‬‫ﻋﺑر‬‫اﻟزﻣن‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑل‬‫أى‬‫رؤﯾﺔ‬‫ﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻠﯾﮫ‬‫ﻟﻣﺎ‬‫ﺳ‬‫ﺗﻛون‬‫ﻋﻠﯾﮫ‬
‫اﻟظواھر‬‫و‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑل‬.
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5. ‫ـﺪف‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ﻬ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ا‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺗدرﯾﺑﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺑرﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ھذا‬ ‫ﺧﻼل‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫ﻧﺗﻌرف‬ ‫ﺳوف‬:
q‫اﻟﻘرارات‬ ‫اﺗﺧﺎذ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﺗﺧطﯾط‬ ‫ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬ ‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬ ‫اﺳﺗﺧدام‬ ‫ﯾﻣﻛن‬ ‫ﻛﯾف‬.
q‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﺑؤ‬ ‫ﻧﻣوذج‬ ‫ﻟﺑﻧﺎء‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدﻣﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫اﻻﺣﺻﺎﺋﯾﮫ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬ ‫ھﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬.
q‫اﻻﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬ ‫ھذه‬ ‫ﺑﯾن‬ ‫اﻻﺧﺗﻼف‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﺷﺑﮫ‬ ‫اوﺟﮫ‬ ‫ھﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬.
q‫اﻟﻘرارات‬ ‫اﺗﺧﺎذ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫اﻻﺣﺻﺎﺋﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬ ‫ﻧﻣﺎذج‬ ‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯾﮫ‬ ‫ﻣدى‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬.
q‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬ ‫أﺟل‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫ﻧﻣوذج‬ ‫ﺑﻧﺎء‬ ‫ﺧطوات‬.
q‫ﺑرﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬ ‫ھذه‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﻣﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺗطﺑﯾق‬Excel
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6. ‫اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‬‫ـﻮم‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ﻬ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ﻣ‬
‫ﯾﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﻧذﻛر‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﺑؤ‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻌﺎرﯾف‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫اﻟﻌدﯾد‬ ‫ﺗوﺟد‬:
Ø‫ھو‬‫اﻟوظﯾﻔﺔ‬‫اﻟﺗﻲ‬،‫ﺗﺿﺑط‬-‫ﺗدرك‬-،‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑل‬‫اﺳﺗﻧﺎدا‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫ﻣﻌطﯾ‬‫ﺎت‬‫ﻣوﺛوق‬
‫ﻓﯾﮭﺎ‬‫ﺣول‬‫اﻟﺳوق‬‫و‬،‫ﺗطوراﺗﮫ‬‫واﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫اﻷﻛﺛر‬‫دﻗﺔ‬‫و‬‫ﺛﻘﺔ‬‫ﯾﻌﺗﻣد‬‫ﻋﻠ‬‫ﻰ‬‫اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج‬
‫اﻟرﯾﺎﺿﯾﺔ‬.
Ø‫ھو‬‫ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ‬‫ﻋرض‬‫ﺣﺎﻟﻲ‬‫ﻟﻘﯾم‬‫ﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻠﯾﺔ‬‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام‬‫ﻣﺷﺎھدات‬‫ﺗﺎرﯾﺧﯾ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﺑﻌد‬
‫دراﺳﺔ‬‫ﺳﻠوﻛﮭﺎ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﻟﻣﺎﺿﻲ‬.
Ø‫ھو‬‫ﻋﻠم‬‫وﻓن‬‫ﺗوﻗﻊ‬‫اﻷﺣداث‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑل‬.
Ø‫ھو‬‫أھم‬‫اﻟوﺳﺎﺋل‬‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬‫ﺗﻣﻛن‬‫اﻟﻣؤﺳﺳﮫ‬)‫ﻛﺣ‬‫ﻛ‬‫وﻣﺔ‬‫أو‬‫ﺷرﻛﺔ‬(‫ﻣن‬‫إﻋطﺎء‬‫ﻧظ‬
‫رة‬‫ﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻠﯾﮫ‬‫ﻟﻣﺎ‬‫ﺗﻛون‬‫ﻋﻠﯾﮫ‬‫ﻧﺷﺎطﺗﮭﺎ‬‫ﺑﻧﺎء‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻣﻌﻠوﻣﺎت‬‫ﺣول‬‫اﻟﻣ‬‫ﺎﺿﻰ‬‫و‬
‫اﻟﺣﺎﺿر‬‫و‬‫ﻛذﻟك‬‫اﻟﻌواﻣ‬‫ل‬‫اﻟﻣؤﺛرة‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻟﺗﻐﯾرات‬.
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8. ‫ﺑﻬﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‬‫اﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻰ‬‫اﻟﻤﺠﺎﻻت‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫أﻣﺜﻠﺔ‬
•‫اﻻرﺻﺎد‬‫اﻟﺠﻮﻳﻪ‬‫اﺳﺑوع‬ ‫ﺧﻼل‬ ‫اﻟطﻘس‬ ‫ﺑﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﺑؤ‬.
•‫ﺳﻮق‬‫اﻻوراق‬‫اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﻪ‬)‫اﻟﺒﻮرﺻﻪ‬(‫ﺑﺳﻌ‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫إﻗﻔﺎل‬ ‫ر‬
‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﮭم‬.
•‫ھﯿﺌﺔ‬‫اﻟﻄﺮق‬‫و‬‫اﻟﻜﺒﺎرى‬‫اﻟﺳﯾﺎرات‬ ‫ﻣرور‬ ‫ﺑﺣرﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﺧﻼل‬
‫ﺷﮭر‬.
•‫اﻟﻤﺒﯿﻌﺎت‬‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟطﻠب‬ ‫ﺑﺣﺟم‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﺑؤ‬.
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9. ‫ـﺆ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ـﺘﻨ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ا‬‫ـﺔ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ـﻤ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ـ‬‫ﻫ‬‫أ‬
Ø‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮى‬‫اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد‬:
‫ﻧظرا‬‫ﻟﻠﺗﻐﯾرات‬‫اﻟدورﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬‫اﻟﺗﻲ‬‫ﯾﺷﮭدھﺎ‬‫اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎد‬‫ﻣن‬،‫رﻛود‬‫واﻧﺗﻌﺎش‬‫واﻟﺗ‬‫ﻲ‬‫ﺗؤﺛر‬‫ﺑﺷﻛل‬
‫ﺧﺎص‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﻧﺷﺎط‬،‫اﻟﺗﺳوﯾﻘﻲ‬‫ﻓﺈن‬‫رﺟﺎل‬‫اﻟﺗﺳوﯾق‬‫أﺻﺑﺣوا‬‫ﯾوﻟون‬‫اھﺗﻣﺎم‬‫ﻛﺑﯾر‬‫ﺑ‬‫ﺎﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠدوﻟﺔ‬‫ﻗﺑل‬‫ا‬‫ﻟدﺧول‬‫واﻻﻧدﻣﺎج‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫أﺳواﻗﮭﺎ‬‫وﺗﺻﻣﯾم‬‫ﺑراﻣﺟﮭﺎ‬‫اﻟﺗﺳوﯾﻘﯾ‬‫ﺔ‬‫،ﻣﻌﺗﻣدﯾن‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗوى‬‫اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدي‬‫وﻓق‬‫ﻣﻌﺎﯾﯾر‬‫ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬‫ﻣﺛل‬:‫اﻹﻧﻔﺎق‬‫اﻟﺣﻛوﻣﻲ‬،‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬
،‫اﻟﺑطﺎﻟﺔ‬‫اﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ‬‫اﻟﻘوﻣﻲ،اﻟﺳﻛﺎن‬‫واﻟﺗﻲ‬‫ﺑدورھﺎ‬‫ﺗﺣدد‬‫ﺣﺟم‬‫ﺗﺄﺛﯾر‬‫ﺗﻠك‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات‬‫ﻋ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﻧﺷﺎط‬
،‫اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدي‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﻣﺑﯾﻌﺎت‬‫اﻟﻛﻠﯾﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﺻﻧﺎﻋﺎت‬‫و‬‫ﻣﺑﯾﻌﺎت‬‫اﻟﻣؤﺳﺳﺔ‬
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10. Ø‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮى‬‫اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬:
‫ﯾﻌﺗﻣد‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻣﺳﺗوى‬‫اﻟﺻﻧﺎﻋﺔ‬‫ﻟﺗﻘدﯾر‬‫ﺣﺟم‬‫اﻟﻣﺑﯾﻌﺎت‬‫اﻟﻣﺗوﻗﻌﺔ‬‫ﻟﻣﻧﺗﺟﺎت‬‫اﻟ‬‫ﺻﻧﺎﻋﺔ‬‫واﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬
‫ﺑﻣدى‬‫ﺗﺄﺛﯾر‬‫اﻟﻣؤﺳﺳﺎت‬‫اﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﺳﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻧﺷﺎط‬‫اﻟﻣؤﺳﺳﺔ‬‫وﻛذﻟك‬‫اﻟﺟﮭود‬‫اﻟﻣﺑذوﻟﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﺣﺻ‬‫ول‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺣﺻص‬‫ﺳوﻗﯾﺔ‬،‫ﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ‬‫ﻣﺛل‬‫ﻣدى‬‫ﺗﺄﺛﯾر‬‫اﻟﻣﻧﺳوﺟﺎت‬‫اﻟﻣﺻﻧﻌﺔ‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﺑﯾﺗروﻛﯾﻣﯾﺎوﯾ‬‫ﺎت‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻣﻧﺳوﺟﺎت‬‫اﻟﻘطﻧﯾﺔ‬‫وﻓﻘﺎ‬‫ﻟﻣﻌﺎﯾﯾر‬‫أو‬‫أرﻗﺎم‬‫ﻣﺛل‬:‫إﺣﺻﺎءات‬،‫اﻻﺳﺗﮭﻼك‬‫إﺣﺻﺎءات‬‫اﻟﺗﺟ‬‫ﺎرة‬
‫اﻟﺧﺎرﺟﯾﺔ،اﻹﻧﺗﺎج‬‫اﻟﻣﺣﻠﻲ‬.
10

11. Ø‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮى‬‫اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﻪ‬:‫ﺟ‬ ‫ﻣﮭم‬ ‫ﯾﻌﺗﺑر‬‫دا‬
‫ﯾﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻣؤﺳﺳﮫ‬ ‫داﺧل‬ ‫ﻣﺗﺿﻣﻧﮫ‬ ‫وظﯾﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻛل‬ ‫أو‬ ‫ﺟزء‬ ‫ﻟﻛل‬:
ü‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬‫ﻟﻺﻧﺘﺎج‬‫واﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎت‬:‫ﯾﻌﺗﺑر‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺑﯾﻌﺎت‬‫ﺣﺟر‬‫اﻷﺳﺎس‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺗﺧطﯾط‬‫واﻟرﻗﺎﺑﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻣﺧﺗﻠف‬‫أﻧﺷطﺔ‬،‫اﻟﻣؤﺳﺳﺔ‬‫ﺣﯾث‬‫ﯾﻌﺗﻣد‬‫ﻋﻠﯾﮫ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫إﻋداد‬‫ﺧطط‬
‫اﻹﻧﺗﺎج،اﻟﺗﺧزﯾن،اﻟﺷراء‬‫اﻟﺗﺳوﯾق،اﻟﻘوى‬‫اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬‫و‬‫ﯾﺳﺎﻋد‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺗﺣدﯾد‬‫ﺣﺟم‬‫اﻟﻣﺻ‬‫ﻧﻊ‬‫،ﻧﻣط‬
‫اﻹﻧﺗﺎج‬‫واﻟﺗﻧظﯾم‬‫اﻟداﺧﻠﻲ‬‫وھذا‬‫ﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﻣؤﺳﺳﺎت‬‫اﻟﺣدﯾﺛﺔ‬‫ﻛذﻟك‬‫ﺗﺄﻣﯾن‬‫ا‬‫ﻟﻣﺧزون‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺳﺗوى‬‫اﻟﻣدى‬‫اﻟﻘﺻﯾر‬‫واﻟﺗﺧطﯾط‬‫ﻟﻘدراﺗﮫ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫اﻟﻣدى‬‫اﻟطوﯾل‬.
11

12. ü‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﻠﺘﺴﻮﻳﻖ‬:‫ﯾﻌﺗﺑر‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺑﯾﻌﺎت‬‫اﻷﺳﺎس‬‫ﻓ‬‫ﻲ‬‫اﺗﺧﺎذ‬‫اﻟﻌدﯾد‬‫ﻣن‬
‫اﻟﻘرارات‬‫اﻟﺗﺳوﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﻣﺟﺎﻻت‬‫اﻟﺗﺳﻌﯾر،اﻹﻋﻼن‬‫اﻟﺗروﯾﺞ‬‫و‬‫اﻟﺗوزﯾﻊ‬...‫اﻟﺦ‬.‫ﻛذ‬‫ﻟك‬‫إﻋداد‬
‫ﺑرﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬‫ﺗﺳوﯾﻘﻲ‬‫ﻓﻌﺎل‬‫ﻣﺗﻛﺎﻣل‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻣﺳﺗوى‬‫ﻣﻧﺗﺞ‬‫أو‬‫ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ‬‫ﻣﻧﺗﺟﺎت‬.
ü‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﻪ‬‫ﻟﻠﻤﺎﻟﻴﻪ‬:‫ﯾﻣﻛن‬‫ﻟﻠﻣؤﺳﺳﺔ‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﺧﻼل‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﺗﺣدﯾد‬‫ا‬‫ﻻرﺑﺎح‬‫اﻟﻣﺗوﻗﻌﮫ‬‫ﻓﻰ‬
‫ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ‬‫ﻓﺗرة‬‫اﻟﻣﺑﯾﻌﺎت‬‫أو‬‫ﺗﺣدﯾد‬‫أى‬‫اﻟﻘطﺎﻋﺎت‬‫اﻟﺗﺳوﻗﯾﺔ‬‫ﻣرﺑﺣﺔ‬‫ﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻼ‬.
ü‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﻤﻮارد‬‫اﻟﺒﺸﺮﻳﺔ‬:‫ﯾﺳﺎﻋد‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ﺗﻘد‬‫ﯾر‬‫اﻻﺣﺗﯾﺎﺟﺎت‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﯾد‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬‫ﺧﻼل‬‫اﻟﻔﺗرات‬‫اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﺔ‬‫ﺣﺳب‬‫اﻟﺗﺧﺻص‬‫و‬‫اﻟﻣﺟﺎل‬‫اﻟوظﯾﻔﻰ‬‫و‬‫ﻛذﻟك‬‫ﺗﺣدﯾداﻟ‬‫ﺗﻛﺎﻟﯾف‬‫و‬
‫اﻻﺟور‬‫اﻟﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ‬‫ﻟذﻟك‬.
12

13. ‫اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‬‫أﺳﻠﻮب‬‫اﺧﺘﻴﺎر‬‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻊ‬‫اﻟﺗﻌدد‬‫و‬‫اﻟﺗزاﯾد‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬‫و‬‫طرق‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫أﺻﺑﺣت‬‫اﻻھﻣﯾﺔ‬‫ﺗﻛﻣن‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ﺗﺣﻘﯾق‬‫اﻟﻣواﺋﻣﺔ‬‫ﺑﯾن‬
‫أﺳﻠوب‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫اﻟﻣﻌﺗﻣد‬‫و‬‫اﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬‫ﺳوف‬‫ﯾﺳﺗﺧدم‬‫ﻓﯾﮭﺎ‬‫ھذا‬‫اﻻﺳﻠوب‬‫ﻷن‬‫طرق‬‫اﻟ‬‫ﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﻻ‬
‫ﺗﺻﻠﺢ‬‫وﻻ‬‫ﺗﺿﻣن‬‫ﻋﻣﻠﮭﺎ‬‫ﺑﺷﻛل‬‫ﻛﺎﻣل‬‫وﻣﺗﻧﺎﺳق‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﻛل‬،‫اﻟﺣﺎﻻت‬‫واﻻﺧﺗﯾﺎر‬‫اﻟﺧﺎطﺊ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﻸﺳﻠوب‬
‫ﯾﻧﺟم‬‫ﻋﻧﮫ‬،‫ﻋواﻗب‬‫ﻓﻌﻧدﻣﺎ‬‫ﺗﻛون‬ً‫ﻼ‬‫ﻣﺛ‬‫اﻟﻣﺑﯾﻌﺎت‬)‫اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬(‫اﻟﻣﺣﺻل‬‫ﻋﻠﯾﮭﺎ‬‫أﻛﺑر‬‫ﻣن‬‫ا‬‫ﻟﻣﺑﯾﻌﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻣﺣﻘﻘﺔ‬،‫ﻓﻌﻼ‬‫ﯾؤدي‬‫ذﻟك‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫ﺗﺟﻣﯾد‬‫ﻣﺑﺎﻟﻎ‬‫ﺿﺧﻣﺔ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺷﻛل‬‫ﻣﺧزون‬‫ﺳﻠﻌﻲ‬‫ﻗﺎﺑل‬‫ﻟﻠﺗ‬‫ﻠف‬‫وارﺗﻔﺎع‬
‫ﺗﻛﺎﻟﯾف‬،‫اﻟﺗﺧزﯾن‬‫أﻣﺎ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬‫ﻛون‬‫اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬‫اﻟﻣﺣﺻل‬‫ﻋﻠﯾﮭﺎ‬‫أﻗل‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﻣﺑﯾﻌﺎت‬‫ﻓﻌﻼ‬‫،ﯾؤدي‬‫إﻟﻰ‬
‫ظﮭور‬‫ﻓﺟوة‬‫وﺿﻐط‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ‬‫اﻹﻧﺗﺎج‬‫ﺣﺗﻰ‬‫ﻟوﻗت‬‫إﺿﺎﻓﻲ‬‫ﻟﺗﻐطﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟطﻠﺑﺎت‬‫اﻟﻣﺗرا‬‫ﻛﻣﺔ‬.
13

14. ‫اﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳب‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬ ‫أﺳﻠوب‬ ‫ﻻﺧﺗﯾﺎر‬ ‫واﻟﻣﻌﺎﯾﯾر‬ ‫اﻟﻌواﻣل‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ‬ ‫اﻋﺗﻣﺎد‬ ‫وﺟب‬ ‫وﻟذﻟك‬‫و‬‫ﻣﻧﮭﺎ‬:
Ø‫اﻟﺪﻗﺔ‬‫و‬‫اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬:‫اﻻﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺗطرح‬ ‫ﻋﻠﯾﮭﻣﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﺣدﯾث‬ ‫ﻋﻧد‬:
-‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ؟‬ ‫ﺑﻌﻣﻠﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﯾﺎم‬ ‫اﻟﺿرورﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻷﻣوال‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣوع‬ ‫ھﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬
-‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬ ‫ﺧطﺄ‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺗؤدي‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻌراﻗﯾل‬ ‫ھﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬)‫اﻟدﻗﺔ‬ ‫اﻧﻌدام‬(‫؟‬
-‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ؟‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟدﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻧد‬ ‫اﻹﯾﺟﺎﺑﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ھﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬
Ø‫ﺗوﻓر‬ ‫ﻣدى‬‫اﻟﻤﻌﻄﯿﺎت‬‫اﻟﺘﺎرﻳﺨﯿﺔ‬‫وﺗ‬ ‫ﻟﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﻼزم‬ ‫اﻟوﻗت‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﺑؤ‬ ‫اﻟﻼزﻣﺔ‬،‫ﺣﻠﯾﻠﮭﺎ‬
‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدﻣﯾن‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﻼزﻣﺔ‬ ‫اﻷﺟﮭزة‬ ‫ﺗوﻓر‬ ‫وﻣدى‬.
Ø‫ﻋدد‬‫اﻟﻔﺘﺮات‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻧﺑﺊ‬‫ﺑﮭﺎ‬.
14

15. Ø‫اﻟﺒﺴﺎطﺔ‬‫واﻟﺴﮫﻮﻟﺔ‬:‫وﻧﻘﺻد‬‫ﺑﮫ‬‫ﻗدرة‬‫اﻟﻣﻘررﯾن‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﺳﺗﻌﻣﺎل‬‫وﺗطﺑﯾق‬‫ھ‬‫ذه‬
‫اﻷﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﻣﯾدان‬‫وﯾﻣﻛن‬‫أن‬‫ﻧواﺟﮫ‬‫ﻣﺷﻛﻠﺗﯾن‬‫ﻓﻘد‬‫ﺗﻛون‬‫اﻷﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬‫ﻣﻔﮭوﻣﺔ‬‫وﻣﻼ‬‫ﺋﻣﺔ‬‫ﻟﻘدرة‬
‫اﻟﻣﻌد‬‫ﻟﻸﺳﻠوب‬‫ﻟﻛن‬‫ﻏﯾر‬‫ﻣﻼﺋﻣﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺗﻔﯾد‬‫أو‬‫ﻟﻣدﯾر‬‫اﻟﻌﻣﻠﯾﺎت‬،‫اﻟﺗﻧﻔﯾذﯾﺔ‬‫وﻗد‬‫ﯾ‬‫ﻛون‬‫اﻷﺳﻠوب‬
‫ﻣﻔﮭوم‬‫وﺑﺳﯾط‬‫وﻟﯾس‬‫ﻣﻼﺋم‬‫ﻟﺣﺎﺟﺎت‬‫وظروف‬‫ﺗطﺑﯾﻘﮫ‬.
Ø‫طﺒﯿﻌﺔ‬‫اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬:‫إذا‬‫ﻛﺎن‬‫اﻟﮭدف‬‫ھو‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺑﯾﻌﺎت‬‫ﻟﻣﻧﺗﺞ‬‫أو‬‫ﺧدﻣﺔ‬‫ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ‬‫ﻓﺎﻧﮫ‬‫ﯾﺗطﻠب‬
‫ﺗوﻓر‬‫ﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬‫ﺗﺎرﯾﺧﯾﺔ‬‫ﻋﻧﮫ‬‫وﯾﻛﻔﻲ‬‫اﻻﻋﺗﻣﺎد‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫أﺳﻠوب‬‫اﻟﺳﻼﺳل‬‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ا‬‫ﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬،‫ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺣﯾن‬‫إذا‬‫ﻛﺎن‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﺗطورات‬‫اﻟﺗﻛﻧوﻟوﺟﯾﺔ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﻣﺟﺎل‬‫ﻣﻌﯾن‬‫ﻓﮭﻧﺎ‬‫ﻻ‬‫ﯾﺣﺗﺎج‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫ﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬
‫ﺗﺎرﯾﺧﯾﺔ‬‫ﺑل‬‫ﻟﺗﻘدﯾرات‬‫اﻟﺧﺑراء‬‫وﻋﻠﯾﮫ‬‫ﻧﻌﺗﻣد‬‫ﻣﺛﻼ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫طرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫دﻟﻔﻲ‬.
15

16. 16

17. Forecasting
•Predict the next number in the pattern:
a) 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, ?
b) 2.5, 4.5, 6.5, 8.5, 10.5, ?
c) 5.0, 7.5, 6.0, 4.5, 7.0, 9.5, 8.0, 6.5, ?

18. Forecasting
•Predict the next number in the pattern:
a) 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7,
b) 2.5, 4.5, 6.5, 8.5, 10.5,
c) 5.0, 7.5, 6.0, 4.5, 7.0, 9.5, 8.0, 6.5,
3.7
12.5
9.0

19. ‫أﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ‬
‫أﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ‬
‫ﻏﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ‬
‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬
‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬
19

20. ‫اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‬‫أﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ‬
‫ﻧظﺎﻣﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﯾر‬ ‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬ ‫ﻧظﺎﻣﯾﺔ‬ ‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬
20

21. ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒﺆات‬ ‫اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺪى‬
Types of Forecasts by Time Horizon
• Short-range forecast ‫اﻷﺟل‬ ‫ﻗﺻﯾرة‬ ‫ﺗﻧﺑؤات‬
• Usually < 3 months
• Job scheduling, worker assignments
• Medium-range forecast ‫اﻷﺟل‬ ‫ﻣﺗوﺳطﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻧﺑؤات‬
• 3 months to 2 years
• Sales/production planning
• Long-range forecast ‫اﻷﺟل‬ ‫طوﯾﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻧﺑؤات‬
• > 2 years
• New product planning
‫اﻟﻧظﺎم‬ ‫ﺑﺑﻧﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺗﻌﻠق‬
‫ﺗﺗﻌﻠق‬
‫ﺑﺗﻔﺎﺻﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻣل‬ ‫ل‬
‫اﻟﻧظﺎم‬
‫ﻛﻣﯾﺔ‬ ‫طرق‬
Quantitative
methods
‫ﻧوﻋﯾﺔ‬ ‫طرق‬
Qualitative
Methods

22. ‫اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺣﯿﺎة‬ ‫دورة‬ ‫ﺧﻼل‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‬
Forecasting During the Life Cycle
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
Sales
Time
‫اﻟﻛﻣﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج‬
Quantitative models
- Time series analysis ‫اﻟﺳﻼﺳل‬
‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬
- Regression analysis ‫ﺗﺣﻠﯾل‬
‫اﻻﻧﺣدار‬
‫اﻟﻧوﻋﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج‬
Qualitative models
- Executive judgment ‫اﻟﺣﻛﻣﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻘدﯾر‬
‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﻔﯾذﯾﯾن‬
- Market research ‫اﻟﺳوق‬ ‫ﺑﺣوث‬
-Survey of sales force ‫ﻣﺳوﺣﺎت‬‫ﻣﺳﺋوﻟﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺗﺳوﯾق‬
-Delphi method ‫طرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫دﻟﻔﻰ‬

23. ‫ﻧظﺎﻣﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﯾر‬ ‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻧظﺎﻣﯾﮫ‬ ‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬ ‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬ ‫ﺗﻧﻘﺳم‬:
Ø‫اﻷﺳﺎﻟﯿﺐ‬‫ﻏﯿﺮ‬‫اﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﯿﺔ‬:‫أو‬‫ﻣﺎ‬‫ﺗﻌرف‬‫ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬‫اﻟﻛﯾﻔﯾﺔ‬‫وھﻰ‬‫ﻋﺑﺎرة‬‫ﻋ‬‫ن‬‫اﻟطرق‬
‫اﻟﻣوﺿوﻋﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﺑﺳﯾطﺔ‬‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬‫ﺗﺣﺗﺎج‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫ﻣﮭﺎرات‬‫و‬‫ﺧﺑرات‬‫ﺗرﺗﻛز‬‫ﺑﺎﻟدرﺟﺔ‬‫اﻻوﻟﻰ‬‫ﻋ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﺣدس‬
‫و‬‫اﻟﺗﺧﻣﯾن‬‫و‬‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬‫ﺗﻌﺗﻣد‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﺗﻘدﯾر‬‫اﻟذاﺗﻰ‬‫و‬‫ﻻ‬‫ﺗﺣﺗﺎج‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫ﻗﺎﻋدة‬‫ﻋﻠﻣﯾﺔ‬‫ﺣﺳﺎ‬‫ﺑﯾﺔ‬‫أو‬‫ﺗﺣدﯾد‬
‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات‬‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬‫ﺗﻔﺳر‬‫ﺳﻠوك‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬‫ﻣوﺿوع‬‫اﻻھﺗﻣﺎم‬.
Ø‫اﻻﺳﺎﻟﯿﺐ‬‫اﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﯿﺔ‬:‫أو‬‫ﻣﺎ‬‫ﺗﻌرف‬‫ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬‫اﻟﻛﻣﯾﮫ‬‫و‬‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬‫ﺗﻌﺗﻣد‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫طرق‬‫ﻋﻠﻣﯾﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺗﻔﺳﯾر‬‫أﯾﺔ‬‫ظﺎھرة‬‫و‬‫ﺗﺳﺗﻧد‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺟﺔ‬‫ﺟﻣﯾﻊ‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات‬‫اﻟﻣؤﺛرة‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﺧﻼل‬‫ﻧﻣﺎذج‬‫ر‬‫ﯾﺎﺿﯾﺔ‬
‫ﻗﺎﺑﻠﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﺗﻘدﯾر‬‫ﻣﺎ‬‫ﯾﺟﻌﻠﮭﺎ‬‫ﺗﺗﺳم‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣوﺿوﻋﯾﺔ‬‫و‬‫ﺗﻛون‬‫ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤات‬‫ﺑﻌﯾدة‬‫ﻋ‬‫ن‬‫اﻟﺗﺄﺛر‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﻌواﻣل‬
‫اﻟذاﺗﯾﺔ‬.
23

24. ‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬‫ﻏﯾر‬‫ﻧظﺎﻣﯾﺔ‬‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬‫ﻧظﺎﻣﯾﺔ‬
)‫ﻛﯾﻔﯾﺔ‬()‫ﻛﻣﯾﺔ‬(
(1‫اﻟﺧﺻﺎﺋص‬‫ﺗﻌﺗﻣد‬‫اﻟرﯾﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﺎت‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺗﻣد‬ ‫اﻟﺷﺧﺻﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺧﺑرات‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻻراء‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺿﯾﺔ‬
‫ﻣوﺿوﻋﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﺣﯾزة‬
‫رﯾﺎﺿﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻋدة‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺗﻣد‬ ‫ﻻ‬
2(‫اﻟﻣﻣﯾزات‬‫ﺑﺳﮭوﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺗطﯾﻊ‬‫اﻟ‬ ‫ادﺧﺎل‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺗطﯾﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻐﯾﯾرات‬ ‫أﺧر‬ ‫ﺗﺿﻣﯾن‬‫ﻣن‬ ‫ﻛﺛﯾر‬
)‫ﻣﻌﻠوﻣﺎﺗﯾﺔ‬ ‫أو‬ ‫ﺑﯾﺋﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﯾﯾرات‬(‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬‫ات‬
‫ﻓﻰ‬
‫واﺣد‬ ‫آن‬
3(‫اﻟﻌﯾوب‬‫اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬ ‫ﺑﻌض‬ ‫ﺗوﻓر‬ ‫ﻋدم‬ ‫ﻣﺗﺣﯾزة‬
‫ذات‬
‫اﻟﻘﯾﺎس‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬ ‫دﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻠل‬‫اﻟﻛﻣﻰ‬
24

25. ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻐﻴﺮ‬‫اﻻﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ‬
‫ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺗﯾن‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬ ‫ھذه‬ ‫ﺗﻧﻘﺳم‬
25
‫ﻣﻌﺗﻣد‬ ‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬‫ة‬
‫ذوى‬ ‫آراء‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﺧﺑر‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﺷﺄن‬
‫ة‬
‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬
‫اﻟﺗﻧﺎظرو‬
‫اﻟﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ‬

26. ‫ھذا‬‫اﻻﺳﻠوب‬‫ﯾﻌﺗﻣد‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻋﻘد‬‫اﻟﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺎت‬‫ﺑﯾن‬‫اﻟﺣﺎﻻت‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﺷﺎﺑﮭﺔ‬‫ﻟﻧ‬‫ﻔس‬
‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬‫ﻓﻣﺛﻼ‬‫ﻟﻠﺗﻌرف‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫أﺛر‬‫ﺗﺧﻔﯾض‬‫اﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﺗﺿﺧم‬‫ﯾﺗم‬‫ﻋﻘد‬‫ﻣﻘﺎرﻧ‬‫ﮫ‬‫ﻷﺛر‬‫اﻧﺧﻔﺎض‬
‫ﻋﻣﻠﺔ‬‫ﺑﻠد‬‫ﻣﺎ‬‫ﻟدﯾﮭﺎ‬‫ظروف‬‫اﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬‫ﻣﺷﺎﺑﮭﺔ‬.
26

27. ‫ﺗﻧﻘﺳم‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻻﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫أرﺑﻌﺔ‬‫ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺎت‬:
(1‫اﻟﻣﺳوﺣﺎت‬‫و‬‫اﻻﺳﺗﻘﺻﺎء‬.
(2‫ﻧدوات‬‫اﻟﺧﺑراء‬.
(3‫طرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫اﻟﺳﯾﻧﺎرﯾوھﺎت‬.
(4‫طرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫دﻟﻔﻰ‬.
27

28. )1(‫اﻟﻤﺴﻮﺣﺎت‬‫و‬‫اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎء‬
‫ﺗﮭدف‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫اﻟﺗﻌرف‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫رأى‬‫ذوى‬‫اﻟﺷﺄن‬‫و‬‫اﻟﺧﺑرة‬‫و‬‫ﺗوﻗﻌﺎﺗﮭم‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ﺑﻌض‬‫اﻷﻧﺷطﺔ‬‫اﻹ‬‫ﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻐرض‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﺑﺑﻌض‬‫اﻟﻣؤﺷرات‬،‫اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺛﺎل‬:
‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤات‬‫ﺑﺎﺗﺟﺎھﺎت‬‫اﻟﺳوق‬‫و‬‫ﻣﻌدﻻت‬‫اﻟﺗﺿﺧم‬.‫ﺗﺗم‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﺧﻼل‬‫اﺳﺗطﻼع‬‫ﻋﯾﻧﮫ‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﻣﻌ‬‫ﻧﯾﯾن‬‫ﺑذﻟك‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام‬‫اﺳﺗﺑﯾﺎن‬‫ﻣ‬‫ﺧﺻص‬‫ﻟذﻟك‬‫ﯾوزع‬‫وﯾﺟﻣﻊ‬‫إﻣﺎ‬‫ﻋن‬‫طرﯾق‬‫اﻟﻣراﺳﻠﺔ‬‫أو‬‫ﺑﺗﻛﻠﯾف‬‫ﻓرﯾق‬‫ﻋﻣل‬
‫ﯾﻘوم‬‫ﺑﺟﻣﻊ‬‫اﻟﻣﻌﻠوﻣﺎت‬‫اﻟﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬‫ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺗطﻼع‬.
28

29. )2(‫ﻧﺪوات‬‫اﻟﺨﺒﺮاء‬
‫ﺗﺗﻣﺛل‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫إﺟراء‬‫ﺣوار‬‫ﺑﯾن‬‫ﻋدد‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﺧﺑراء‬‫واﻟﻣﻔﻛرﯾن‬‫ﻟﺗﺑﺎدل‬‫اﻻﻓﻛﺎر‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫اﻟﻣواﺿ‬‫ﯾﻊ‬
‫اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬‫ﺗﮭم‬‫اﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬‫ﺑﺎﻟدرﺟﺔ‬‫اﻻوﻟﻰ‬‫وﺗﻘدﯾم‬‫ﺣﻠول‬‫ﻟﺟﻣﯾﻊ‬‫اﻟﻣﺷﻛﻼت‬‫اﻟﻘ‬‫ﺎﺋﻣﺔ‬‫وﻗد‬
‫ﺗؤدى‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻟطرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫ﺗﺻور‬‫ﻣﺣدد‬‫ﺑﺷﺄن‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑل‬
29

30. )3(‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ‬‫اﻟﺴﻨﯿﺎرﯾﻮھﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺳﯾﻧﺎرﯾو‬‫ﻋﺑﺎرة‬‫ﻋن‬‫وﺻف‬‫أو‬‫ﺳرد‬‫ﻟﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻻﺣداث‬‫و‬‫اﻟﺗﺻرﻓﺎت‬‫اﻟﻣﺣﺗﻣل‬‫وﻗوﻋﮭﺎ‬‫ﻓﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑل‬‫ووﺻف‬‫ﻟﻠﻘوى‬‫اﻟﻣؤدﯾﺔ‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫وﻗ‬‫و‬‫ﻋﮭﺎ‬.
‫وﯾﻌد‬‫ھذا‬‫اﻟوﺻف‬‫ﺑﻧﺎء‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺗرﺗﯾب‬‫ﻣﻧطﻘﻰ‬‫ﻟﺗﺳﻠﺳل‬‫اﻻﺣداث‬‫وﻣﺣﺎوﻟﺔ‬‫ﺗﺣدﯾد‬‫ﺟﻣﯾﻊ‬‫اﻟرواﺑط‬‫ا‬‫ﻟﻘﺎﺋﻣﺔ‬‫ﺑﯾﻧﮭﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺈﻋﺗﺑﺎر‬‫أن‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻻﺣداث‬‫ﻻ‬‫ﺗﻘﻊ‬‫ﻣﻧﻔﺻﻠﺔ‬‫ﻋن‬‫ﺑﻌﺿﮭﺎ‬‫اﻟﺑﻌض‬‫وأﻧﮭﺎ‬‫ﺗرﺗﺑط‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﺧﻼل‬‫ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ‬‫دﯾ‬‫ﻧﺎﻣﯾﻛﯾﺔ‬.
30
‫ﻋﻧﺻرﯾن‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫ﯾﺗﻛون‬ ‫اﻟﺳﯾﻧﺎرﯾو‬ ‫أن‬ ‫أي‬:
‫واﻟﺗﺻرف‬ ‫اﻻﺣداث‬‫ات‬.

31. )4(‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ‬‫دﻟﻔﻰ‬Delphi Method
ü‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟطرق‬‫اﻟﺷﺎﺋﻌﺔ‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫اﻟوﻻﯾﺎت‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﺣدة‬‫و‬‫اﻟﯾﺎﺑﺎن‬‫واﻻﺳﺎس‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ﺗﻠك‬‫اﻟ‬‫طرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫ھو‬
‫اﻻﻋﺗﻣﺎد‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫رأى‬‫ﻋدد‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﺧﺑراء‬‫ﺗم‬‫ﺟﻣﻌﮭم‬‫ﺑﺎﻟدﻗﺔ‬‫واﻟﻣزج‬‫واﻟﺗﻧﺳﯾق‬‫ﺑﯾ‬‫ن‬
‫آراﺋﮭم‬‫ﺑﺷﺄن‬‫ﻣﺗﺎﺑﻌﺎﺗﮭم‬‫ﻟﻠﻣواﺿﯾﻊ‬‫ﻣﺣل‬‫اﻟﺑﺣث‬‫ﺛم‬‫اﻟﺗوﺻل‬‫ﻟرأى‬‫واﺣد‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺟﻣﯾﻊ‬
‫اﻟﻘﺿﺎﯾﺎ‬‫اﻟﻣطروﺣﺔ‬.
ü‫طورت‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻟطرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫ﻓ‬‫ﻰ‬‫ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﺧﻣﺳﯾﻧﯾﺎت‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﻗﺑل‬‫اﻟﻣؤﺳﺳﺔ‬‫اﻷﻣرﯾﻛﯾﺔ‬Rand
‫ﻣن‬‫طرف‬‫راﻧد‬‫ھﻠﻣر؛‬‫ﺣﯾث‬‫اﺳﺗﺧدﻣت‬‫ﻷول‬‫ﻣرة‬‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﺑؤات‬‫اﻟﺗﻛﻧوﻟوﺟﯾﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠ‬‫ﻣدى‬
‫اﻟﺑﻌﯾد‬‫وﻟم‬‫ﯾﺗوﻗف‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ھذا‬‫ﺑل‬‫ﺗﻌدت‬‫ﻟﺗﺷﻣل‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺑﯾﻌﺎت‬‫واﻟ‬‫ﻌواﻣل‬‫اﻟﻣؤﺛرة‬
‫ﻓﯾﮫ‬.
31

32. ‫ﺗﻤﺮ‬‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ‬‫دﻟﻔﻰ‬‫ﺑﺜﻼث‬‫ﻣﺮاﺣﻞ‬‫ﻛﻤﺎ‬‫ﯾﻠﻰ‬:
32

33. ‫اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ‬‫اﻻوﻟﻰ‬:‫ﺻﯿﺎﻏﺔ‬‫اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻣن‬‫أﺟل‬‫اﻟوﺻول‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬‫ﻋﺎﻟﯾﺔ‬‫ﯾﺟب‬‫أن‬‫ﺗﺻﺎغ‬‫إﺷﻛﺎﻟﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﻣوﺿوع‬‫اﻟﻣراد‬
‫دراﺳﺗﮫ‬‫ﺑﺷﻛل‬‫ﺟﯾد‬‫ﻟذﻟك‬‫ﯾﺟب‬:
ü‫ﺗﺟﻧﯾب‬‫اﻟﺧﺑراء‬‫اﻟﺗﻔﻛﯾر‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﻣواﺿﯾﻊ‬‫ﻋﺎﻣﺔ‬‫ﺟدا،ﻟﮭذا‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﺿروري‬‫اﻟﺗ‬‫ﺣدﯾد‬‫اﻟﺟﯾد‬
‫واﻟدﻗﯾق‬‫ﻟﻠﻣواﺿﯾﻊ‬‫وﻟﻸﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬.
ü‫أن‬‫ﺗﺣرر‬‫اﻷﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬‫ﺑطرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫ﺑﺳﯾطﺔ‬‫وﻣﺧﺗﺻرة‬ ·
ü‫أن‬‫ﺗﻛون‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻷﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬‫ﻣﻧﻔﺻﻠﺔ‬‫ﻋن‬‫ﺑﻌﺿﮭﺎ‬‫اﻟﺑﻌض‬‫ﻟﺗﺟﻧﯾب‬‫ﺗﺄﺛﯾر‬‫إﺟﺎ‬‫ﺑﺔ‬‫اﻟﺳؤال‬
‫اﻟوارد‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﺳؤال‬‫اﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ‬.
33

34. ‫اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ‬‫اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬:‫اﻷﻋﻀﺎء‬‫اﻟﻤﺸﺎرﻛﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻣﺷﺎرﻛﯾن‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫أﻧواع‬ ‫ﺛﻼث‬ ‫ھﻧﺎك‬ ‫اﻟطرﯾﻘﺔ‬ ‫ھذه‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬:‫اﻟﻣﺷ‬ ‫أﻓراد‬ ،‫اﻟﻘرار‬ ‫ﻣﺗﺧذو‬،‫ورة‬
‫اﻟﺧﺑراء‬.
ü‫ﻣﺘﺨﺬو‬‫اﻟﻘﺮار‬:‫ﺗﺗﻛون‬‫ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ‬‫ﻣﺗﺧذى‬‫اﻟﻘرارات‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ‬‫ﻣن‬
‫اﻷﻓراد‬‫اﻟذﯾن‬‫ﺳﯾﻘوﻣون‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻰ‬‫و‬‫اﻟﻧﮭﺎﺋﻰ‬‫أى‬‫ﯾﺗوﻟون‬‫اﺗﺧﺎ‬‫ذ‬‫ﻗرار‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬
‫وﻟﺗﺻﺑﺢ‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻟﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ‬‫ﻣﻌﻘوﻟﺔ‬‫ﯾﺟب‬‫أن‬‫ﯾﺗراوح‬‫ﻋددھﺎ‬‫ﻣن‬5‫ـــ‬10‫أﻓراد‬.
ü‫أﻓﺮاد‬‫اﻟﻤﺸﻮرة‬:‫ھم‬‫ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻷﻓراد‬‫ﺗﺳﺎﻋد‬‫ﻣﺗﺧذي‬‫اﻟﻘرار‬‫ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺗﺣﺿﯾر‬‫اﻻﺳﺗﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت،ﺗوزﯾﻌﮭﺎ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﺧﺑراء،ﺟﻣﻊ‬‫اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬‫ﺛم‬‫ﺗﻠﺧﯾﺻ‬‫ﮭﺎ‬‫وﺗﻘدﯾﻣﮭﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻣﺗﺧذي‬‫اﻟﻘرار‬‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬‫أ‬‫ﻧﮭﺎ‬‫ﻣﺳؤوﻟﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺟﻣﯾﻊ‬‫اﻟواﺟﺑﺎت‬‫اﻟﻛﺗﺎﺑﯾﺔ‬.
34

35. ü‫اﻟﺨﺒﺮاء‬:‫ھم‬‫اﻷﻓراد‬‫اﻟذﯾن‬‫ﯾﺟﯾﺑون‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻻﺳﺗﺑﯾﺎن‬‫اﻟﻣﻘدم‬‫ﻟﮭم‬‫ﻣن‬‫طرف‬‫ﻣ‬‫ﺗﺧذ‬
‫اﻟﻘرار‬‫و‬‫ﺗﺗوﻓر‬‫ﻓﯾﮭم‬‫ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﺧﺻﺎﺋص‬‫اﻟﺗﺎﻟﯾﺔ‬:
o‫ﯾﺗﻣﯾزون‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﺣﻛﻣﺔ‬‫اﻟﻣطﻠوﺑﺔ‬‫ﯾﺗم‬‫اﺧﺗﯾﺎرھم‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫أﺳﺎس‬‫اﻟﻣﻌرﻓﺔ‬‫اﻟﺗﻲ‬‫ﯾﻣﻠﻛو‬‫ﻧﮭ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺣول‬
،‫اﻟﻣوﺿوع‬‫أﻣﺎ‬‫اﻟﺧﺑرة‬‫ﻓﺗﺣدد‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫أﺳﺎس‬‫ﺷروط‬‫وﻟﯾس‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫أﺳﺎس‬‫اﺳم‬‫اﻟﺷﺧص‬‫أ‬‫و‬
‫ﻣرﻛزه‬.
o‫ﯾﻔﺿل‬‫ﻋددھم‬‫ان‬‫ﯾﻛون‬‫ﻛﺑﯾر‬‫وﻋﺎدة‬‫ﯾﺗراوح‬‫ﺑﯾن‬5‫ــ‬20‫ﺧﺑﯾر‬.
o‫ﻻ‬‫ﯾﻛون‬‫ﻟﻠﺧﺑراء‬‫طرف‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫اﺗﺧﺎذ‬‫اﻟﻘرار،ﻓﺎﻟﻣطﻠوب‬‫ﻣﻧﮭم‬‫ھو‬‫إﺟﺎﺑ‬‫ﺎﺗﮭم‬‫ﻓﮭﻲ‬‫ﺗﻌﺗ‬‫ﺑر‬
‫ﻣدﺧﻼت‬‫ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬‫ﻟﻣﺗﺧذي‬‫اﻟﻘرار‬.
o‫ھوﯾﺔ‬‫ﻛل‬‫ﺧﺑﯾر‬‫ﻣﺟﮭوﻟﺔ‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﺧﺑراء‬،‫اﻟﻣﺷﺎرﻛﯾن‬‫ﻷن‬‫اﺧﺗﯾﺎرھم‬‫ﯾﺗم‬‫ﺑﺳ‬‫رﯾﺔ‬،‫ﺗﺎﻣﺔ‬
‫وﻣن‬‫ﻣﻧﺎطق‬‫ﺟﻐراﻓﯾﺔ‬‫ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬،‫ﻟﺗﻔﺎدي‬‫اﻟﺗﺣﯾز‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺗﻘدﯾم‬‫اﻵراء‬.
35

36. ‫اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ‬‫اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‬:‫ﺗﻨﻔﯿﺬ‬‫اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺗﺿﻣن‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻟطرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫اﻟﻌﺷرات‬‫ﻣن‬،‫اﻟﻣراﺣل‬‫ﯾﺗم‬‫ﻓﯾﮭﺎ‬‫اﺳﺗﺟواب‬‫اﻟﺧﺑراء‬‫ﺑ‬‫ﺷﻛل‬
‫اﻧﻔﺻﺎﻟﻲ‬‫ﻟﺗﻔﺎدي‬‫اﻵﺛﺎر‬‫اﻟﺳﻠﺑﯾﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﻌﻣل‬‫اﻟﺟﻣﺎﻋﻲ‬‫واﻟﺣﺻول‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻣﻌطﯾﺎ‬‫ت‬‫ﻣﺗﺣﯾز‬‫ة‬‫؛‬
‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺑﺎدئ‬‫اﻷﻣر‬‫ﯾطﻠب‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﺧﺑراء‬‫إﻋطﺎء‬‫رأﯾﮭم‬‫ﺣول‬‫ﺳؤال‬‫ﯾﻘدم‬،‫ﻟﮭم‬‫و‬‫ﺗﻛون‬
‫اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠﯾﮫ‬‫ﻣرﺗﺑﺔ‬‫وﻓق‬‫ﺗﺻﻧﯾف‬،‫ﺧﺎص‬‫وﻣن‬‫ﺧﻼل‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻵراء‬‫اﻟﺗﻣﮭﯾدﯾﺔ‬‫ﯾ‬‫ﻘوم‬
‫ﻣﺗﺧذو‬‫اﻟﻘرار‬‫ﺑﺗﺣﺿﯾر‬‫اﺳﺗﺑﯾﺎن‬‫دﻟﻔﻲ‬.
36

37. ‫ﻧﻤﻮذج‬‫اﺳﺘﺒﯿﺎن‬‫دﻟﻔﻰ‬‫ﻋﻦ‬‫دراﺳﺔ‬‫أﺟﺮﯾﺖ‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫اﺳﻜﺘﻠﻨ‬‫ﺪا‬
2015
37

38. ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﺨﺒﺮة‬ ‫ذوى‬ ‫آراء‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺪة‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺎﻟﯿﺐ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺸﺄن‬:
‫اﻟﻌﯾوب‬ ‫اﻟﻣﻣﯾزات‬
‫اﻟﺧﺻﺎئ‬
‫ص‬
‫اﻟﻧوع‬
‫واﺣد‬ ‫ﺷﺧص‬ ‫رأى‬
‫ﯾﮭﯾﻣن‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ﯾﻣﻛن‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬ ‫ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺗﺧط‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺟﯾد‬‫ﯾط‬
‫ﺟدﯾد‬ ‫ﻟﻣﻧﺗﺞ‬
‫ﻣن‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﯾﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬
‫ﻟوﺿﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﻣدﯾرﯾن‬
‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫اﻟﻌدﯾد‬‫ات‬
‫اﻟﺧﺑراء‬ ‫ﻧدوات‬
‫اﻟﺻﻌب‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫أﺣﯾﺎﻧﺎ‬
‫ﻣ‬ ‫اﺳﺗﺑﯾﺎن‬ ‫ﺗﺻﻣﯾم‬‫ﻌﺑر‬
‫اﻟﻌﻣﻼء‬ ‫ﺣﺎﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﻋن‬
‫اﻟﻔﻌﻠﯾﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺗﻔﺿﯾﻼ‬ ‫ﺟﯾد‬ ‫ﻣﺣدد‬‫ت‬
‫اﻟﻌﻣﻼء‬
‫ﺗﻌﺗﻣد‬‫اﻟﻣﺳو‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ح‬
‫اﺳﺗﺑﯾﺎن‬ ‫إﺟراء‬ ‫و‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻌرف‬
‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺿﯾﻼت‬‫ﮭﻠك‬
‫و‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺳوح‬
‫اﻻﺳﺗﻘﺻﺎء‬
‫ﯾ‬ ‫ﺗطوﯾرھﺎ‬‫ﺳ‬‫ﺗﻐرق‬
ً‫ﻼ‬‫طوﯾ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫وﻗﺗ‬
‫ﺑ‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺟﯾد‬‫ﺎﻟطﻠب‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻻﺟل‬ ‫طوﯾل‬
‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺗطوﯾر‬ ‫ﺗﺳﻌﻰ‬
‫ﻣن‬ ‫ﻋﺎم‬ ‫ﻣﻔﮭوم‬
‫اﻟﺧﺑراء‬ ‫آراء‬ ‫ﺧﻼل‬
‫دﻟﻔﻰ‬ ‫طرﯾﻘﺔ‬
38

39. ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ‬ ‫أﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ‬
‫ﺗﻧﻘﺳم‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻻﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺗﯾن‬:
39
‫ﻏﯾر‬ ‫ﻧﻣﺎذج‬
‫ﺳﺑﺑﯾﮫ‬
‫ﻧﻣﺎذج‬
‫ﺳﺑﺑﯾﺔ‬

40. ‫ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺗ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺳﻠوﻛﮫ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺳر‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺳﯾرﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﯾرات‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺑﺣث‬ ‫ﻣوﺿوع‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬ ‫ﯾﻌﺗﻣد‬‫ﻧظرﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺎد‬
‫رﯾ‬ ‫ﻧﻣوذج‬ ‫ﺷﻛل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺻﯾﺎﻏﺔ‬ ‫ﯾﺗم‬ ‫اﻟﺑﺣث‬ ‫ﻣوﺿوع‬ ‫اﻟظﺎھرة‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺳﯾر‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ‬‫ﻗﺎﺑل‬ ‫ﺎﺿﻰ‬
‫ﻟﺗﻘدﯾره‬.
40

41. ‫اﻟﺴﺒﺒﯿﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫اﻻﺳرة‬ ‫اﺳﺗﮭﻼك‬ ‫ﻟﺗﻔﺳﯾر‬C‫اﻵﺗﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات‬ ‫ﺗﺣدﯾد‬ ‫ﯾﺗم‬:
ü‫اﻷﺳر‬ ‫ﺗﻠك‬ ‫دﺧول‬Y.
ü‫اﻟﺳﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻌر‬P.
‫اﻵﺗﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬ ‫ﺻﯾﺎﻏﺔ‬ ‫ﯾﺗم‬ ‫اﻟطﻠب‬ ‫ﻟﻧظرﯾﺔ‬ ً‫ا‬‫واﺳﺗﻧﺎد‬:
C = a+bY+cP
‫طرﯾﻘ‬ ‫ﻣﺛل‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺗوﻓرة‬ ‫اﻻﺣﺻﺎﺋﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟوﺳﺎﺋل‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام‬ ‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻣﺎت‬ ‫ﺗﻘدﯾر‬ ‫ﯾﺗم‬ ‫ﺛم‬‫اﻟﻣرﺑﻌﺎت‬ ‫ﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺻﻐرى‬
41

42. ‫اﻟﺴﺒﺒﯿﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج‬ ‫أھﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬
)1(‫ﻧﻤﺎذج‬‫اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد‬‫اﻟﻘﯿﺎﺳﻰ‬:‫ﺗﻌﺗﻣد‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ﻗﯾ‬‫ﺎس‬‫و‬‫ﺗﻔﺳﯾر‬
‫اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬‫ﺑﯾن‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫اﻟﻧظرﯾﺔ‬‫اﻹﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬‫ﺑﺷﺄن‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات‬‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬‫ﺗدﺧل‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ﺗﻔﺳ‬‫ﯾر‬‫ﺳوﻟك‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬
‫اﻟﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬.‫ﻣﺛﺎل‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ذﻟك‬‫ﺗﻔﺳﯾرداﻟﺔ‬‫اﻻﺳﺗﮭﻼك‬‫ﺑواﺳطﺔ‬‫اﻟدﺧل‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﺎﺣﻣﻊ‬‫ﺛﺑﺎت‬‫اﻟﻌواﻣل‬‫اﻵﺧر‬‫ى‬:C =
a+bY
‫وﺗﺗطﻠب‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج‬:
ü‫ﺗﺣدﯾد‬‫اﻟﻧظرﯾﺔ‬‫اﻹﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬‫ﻣوﺿوع‬‫اﻟﺑﺣث‬.
ü‫ﺻﯾﺎﻏﺔ‬‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬ً‫ﺎ‬‫رﯾﺎﺿﯾ‬.
ü‫ﺟﻣﻊ‬‫اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬‫اﻟﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬‫ﺑﻣﺗﻐﯾرات‬‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬.
ü‫ﺗﻘدﯾر‬‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬.
ü‫اﺧﺗﺑﺎر‬‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬.
ü‫اﺳﺗﺧدام‬‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬.
42

43. )2(‫ﻧﻤﺎذج‬‫اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت‬‫و‬‫اﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎت‬:table)IO(
‫ﯾﺗم‬‫ﺗﺻوﯾر‬‫اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬‫اﻟﺗﺑﺎدﻟﯾﺔ‬‫ﺑﯾن‬‫ﻣﺧﺗﻠف‬‫اﻟﻘطﺎﻋﺎت‬‫اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬‫ﺧﻼل‬‫اﻟﻌﻣﻠﯾﺔ‬‫ا‬‫ﻻﻧﺗﺎﺟﯾﺔ‬‫ﻓﻰ‬
‫ﺟداول‬‫ﻣدﺧﻼت‬‫و‬‫ﻣﺧرﺟﺎت‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ﻓﺗرة‬‫زﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬‫ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ‬)‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬(،‫ﻣن‬‫ﺧﻼل‬‫ﺗوﺿﯾﺢ‬‫ﻣدﺧﻼت‬‫ﻛل‬
‫ﻗطﺎع‬‫ﻣن‬‫إﺣﺗﯾﺎﺟﺎﺗﮫ‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﻣﺳﺗﻠزﻣﺎت‬‫اﻻﻧﺗﺎج‬‫ﻟﻛل‬‫اﻟﻘطﺎﻋﺎت‬‫اﻵﺧرى‬‫و‬‫ﺗﺳﺗﺧدم‬‫ﻧﻣﺎذج‬‫اﻟ‬‫ﻣدﺧﻼت‬
‫و‬‫اﻟﻣﺧرﺟﺎت‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﺗﺧطﯾط‬‫و‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬.
43

44. ‫اﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎت‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮذج‬ ‫ﺷﻜﻞ‬
44

45. )3(‫ﻧﻤﺎذج‬‫اﻷﻣﺜﻠﯿﺔ‬‫و‬‫اﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ‬‫اﻟﺨﻄﯿﺔ‬:
‫ﺗﻌﺗﺑر‬‫اﻟﺑرﻣﺟﺔ‬‫اﻟﺧطﯾﺔ‬‫ﻣن‬‫أھم‬‫ﻧﻣﺎذج‬‫اﻷﻣﺛﻠﯾﺔ‬‫و‬‫ﺗﮭﺗم‬‫ﺑطرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫إﺳﺗﺧدام‬‫اﻟﻣوارد‬‫اﻟﻣﺗ‬‫ﺎﺣﺔ‬‫ﻓﻰ‬
‫وﺻف‬‫اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬‫ﺑﯾن‬‫ﻣﺗﻐﯾرﯾن‬‫أو‬‫أﻛﺛر‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﺧﻼل‬‫ﺗﻌظﯾم‬‫ﺗﻌظﯾم‬‫أو‬‫ﺗﺻﻐﯾر‬‫داﻟﺔ‬‫اﻟﮭدف‬‫و‬‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬
‫ﺗﺣﺗوى‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻣﺗﻐﯾرات‬‫ھﯾﻛﻠﯾﺔ‬‫ﯾﺗم‬‫ﺗﺣدﯾد‬‫ﻣﺳﺗوﯾﺎﺗﮭﺎ‬‫ﺑﺷﻛل‬‫ﯾﺣﻘق‬‫أﻛﺑر‬)‫أﺻﻐر‬(‫ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬‫ﻟداﻟﺔ‬
‫اﻟﮭدف‬.
45

46. )4(‫ﻧﻤﺎذج‬‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬:
‫ﻟﺗﻔﺎدى‬‫أﯾﺔ‬‫ﻣﺷﻛﻠﺔ‬‫ﻗد‬‫ﺗواﺟﮫ‬‫اﻟﺑﺎﺣث‬‫ﻋﻧد‬‫إﺟراء‬‫اﻟﺗﺟﺎرب‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫أى‬‫ﻧظﺎم‬‫ﺣﻘﯾﻘﻰ‬‫ظن‬‫ﯾﺳ‬‫ﺗﺧدم‬
‫ﻟذﻟك‬‫ﻧﻣﺎذج‬‫اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة‬‫و‬‫ھﻰ‬‫ﻧﻣﺎذج‬‫رﯾﺎﺿﯾﺔ‬‫ﺗﻣﺛل‬‫و‬‫ﺗﻌﻛس‬‫ﺟﻣﯾﻊ‬‫ﺧﺻﺎﺋص‬‫و‬‫ﺳﻠوك‬‫اﻟﻧ‬‫ظﺎم‬
‫اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻰ‬‫ﻟﻠﺗﻌرف‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻵﺛﺎر‬‫اﻟﻣﺣﺗﻣﻠﺔ‬‫ﻟﻘرارات‬‫و‬‫ﺳﯾﺎﺳﯾﺎت‬‫اﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬‫ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ‬‫ﻗد‬‫ﺗؤﺛر‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻣﺳﺎر‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻠﻰ‬‫ﻟﺑﻌض‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات‬‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬‫ﺗﺳﺗﺧدم‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫اﻟﻣﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ‬‫ﺑﯾن‬‫ﻋدد‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟ‬‫ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻘﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬‫ﺗﺣﻘق‬‫اﻟﮭدف‬‫اﻟﻣﻧﺷود‬.
46

47. )5(‫ﻧﻤﺎذج‬‫دﻳﻨﺎﻣﯿﻜﯿﺔ‬‫ﻏﯿﺮ‬‫ﺧﻄﯿﺔ‬:
‫ﺗم‬‫اﻟﺗرﻛﯾز‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫اﻟﺳﻧوات‬‫اﻻﺧﯾرة‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫أﻧواع‬‫ﺟدﯾدة‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج‬‫اﻟﺣﺗﻣﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﻐﯾر‬‫ﺧطﯾ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﺣﯾث‬
‫اﺗﺿﺢ‬‫أﻧﮭﺎ‬‫ﻗﺎدرة‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺗوﺻﯾف‬‫ﺳﻠوك‬‫ﻋدد‬‫ﻛﺑﯾر‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﺳﻼﺳل‬‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬‫ﻻ‬‫ﺗﻘد‬‫ر‬‫اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج‬
‫اﻟﺗﻘﻠﯾدﯾﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺗوﺻﯾﻔﮭﺎ‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﺑﯾن‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج‬‫ﻧﻣﺎذج‬‫اﻟﻔوﺿﻰ‬‫و‬‫ﻧﻣﺎذج‬‫اﻟﻛﺎرﺛﺔ‬‫و‬‫ﻋد‬‫د‬‫ﻣن‬
‫اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج‬‫اﻵﺧرى‬‫و‬‫ﺗﺳﺗﻣد‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج‬‫ﺟذورھﺎ‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﻔﯾزﯾﺎء‬‫و‬‫اﻟﻛﻣﯾﺎء‬‫و‬‫ﻻﺗزال‬‫ﺗطﺑﯾﻘ‬‫ﺎﺗﮭﺎ‬‫ﻓﻰ‬
‫اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎد‬‫ﻗﻠﯾﻠﺔ‬‫و‬‫ﻣﺷﺗﺗﺔ‬.
47

48. Ø‫اﻟﻣﺳ‬ ‫ﺑﻘﯾﻣﺗﮫ‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻛﮭن‬ ‫اﻟﻣراد‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬ ‫اﻟﺗﺎرﯾﺧﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﯾم‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج‬ ‫ﺗﻠك‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺗﻣد‬‫ﺗﺣﺗﺎج‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺑﻠﯾﺔ‬
‫ﺳﻠوﻛﮫ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺳر‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات‬ ‫ﺗﺣدﯾد‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬.
‫ذﻟك‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﺎل‬:‫ﻣ‬ ‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺳﻠﺳﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻟدوﻟﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻘوﻣﻰ‬ ‫اﻟدﺧل‬ ‫ﺑﻘﯾﻣﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫اﻟﻔﺗرة‬ ‫ن‬
1970-2015
48

49. Ø‫ﺗﻌ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺳﻠﺳﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺷﺎھدات‬ ‫أو‬ ‫ﺑﻘﯾم‬ ‫ﯾﻌرف‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺎس‬ ‫اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج‬ ‫ھذه‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺗﻣد‬‫ﻧﻰ‬
:‫اﻟﻣﻛﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻣرﺗﺑﺔ‬ ‫أو‬ ‫اﻟزﻣن‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻣرﺗﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺷواﺋﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻟظﺎھرة‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺷﺎھدة‬ ‫اﻟﻘﯾم‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫ﻣﺗﺗﺎﺑﻌﺔ‬‫ن‬.
Ø‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺳﻼﺳل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫أﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬:
üً‫ﺎ‬‫ﯾوﻣﯾ‬ ‫ﻣﺻر‬ ‫ﺑﻧك‬ ‫ﺳﮭم‬ ‫إﻗﻔﺎل‬ ‫ﺳﻌر‬.
ü‫ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫إﻧﺗﺎج‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫أﺳﺑوﻋﯾ‬ ‫اﻟﻣطﻠوﺑﺔ‬ ‫اﻟوﺣدات‬ ‫ﻋدد‬.
ü‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺷﮭرﯾ‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺑﯾﻌﺎت‬ ‫ﺣﺟم‬.
ü‫اﻟﺳﻌودﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﻣﻠﻛﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺧﺎم‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻧﻔط‬ ‫اﻟﯾوﻣﻰ‬ ‫اﻹﻧﺗﺎج‬ ‫ﺣﺟم‬.
49

50. Ø‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺳﻼﺳل‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﯾل‬ ‫و‬ ‫دراﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫اﻟﻐرض‬‫ھو‬:
1-‫اﻟﻣﺷﺎھدة‬ ‫اﻟظﺎھرة‬ ‫ﻋﺷواﺋﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﻣذﺟﺔ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻓﮭم‬.
2-‫اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠظﺎھرة‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻠﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﯾم‬ ‫ﻋن‬ ‫اﻟﺗﺑؤ‬.
3-‫أﻣﻛن‬ ‫إذا‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟظﺎھرة‬ ‫اﻟﺗﺣﻛم‬.
Ø‫ﻣﺷﺎھدة‬ ‫زﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺳﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﯾﻣﺛل‬ ‫اﻟﺗﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺷﻛل‬:
50

51. ‫ﺳﺒﺒﯿﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻐﯿﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج‬ ‫أھﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬
)1(‫إﺳﻘﺎطﺎت‬‫اﻻﺗﺠﺎه‬‫اﻟﻌﺎم‬:
‫إن‬‫اﻟﮭدف‬‫اﻟرﺋﯾﺳﻰ‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﺳﺗﺧدام‬‫إﺳﻘﺎطﺎت‬‫اﻻﺗﺟﺎه‬‫اﻟﻌﺎم‬‫ﻟﻠﺳﻼﺳل‬‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬‫ھو‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫و‬‫اﻟﺗﻛﮭن‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯾم‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻠﯾﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﯾرات‬‫اﻹﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬‫و‬‫ﯾﻌرف‬‫اﻻﺗﺟﺎه‬‫اﻟﻌﺎم‬‫ﻟﺳﻠﺳﺔ‬‫زﻣﻧﯾ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫أﻧﮫ‬‫اﻟﻧﻣط‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎم‬‫ﻟﻠﺗﻐﯾر‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ﻗﯾم‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬‫اﻟﻣراد‬‫دراﺳﺗﮫ‬‫ﻣﻊ‬‫ﺗﺟﺎھل‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات‬‫اﻵﺧرى‬‫اﻟﻣؤﺛرة‬.
‫و‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻰ‬‫اﻟﺗﻐﯾر‬‫أو‬‫اﻟﺗذﺑذب‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫اﻟﺳﻠﺳﻠﺔ‬‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬‫ﻗد‬‫ﯾﻌود‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫أﺣد‬‫ﻣﻛوﻧﺎﺗﮭﺎ‬:
ü‫اﻻﺗﺟﺎه‬‫اﻟﻌﺎم‬:‫و‬‫ھو‬‫اﻟﺣرﻛﺔ‬‫اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﻣدى‬‫اﻟﺑﻌﯾد‬.
ü‫اﻟﺗﻘﻠﺑﺎت‬‫اﻟﻣوﺳﻣﯾﺔ‬:‫ﺗﻘﻠﺑﺎت‬‫ﻣﻧﺗظﻣﺔ‬‫ﺗﻛرر‬‫ﻧﻔﺳﮭﺎ‬‫ﺣﺳب‬‫ﻓﺗرة‬‫زﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬.
ü‫اﻟﺗﻘﻠﺑﺎت‬‫اﻟدورﯾﺔ‬:‫ﺣﺳب‬‫اﻟدورة‬‫اﻹﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬.
ü‫اﻟﺗﻘﻠﺑﺎت‬‫اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﯾﺔ‬:‫ﻷﺳﺑﺎب‬‫ﻋواﻣل‬‫اﻟطﺑﯾﻌﺔ‬‫و‬‫ﻏﯾرھﺎ‬.
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52. ‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬1:
‫إذا‬‫ﺗوﻓرت‬‫ﻟدﯾك‬‫اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬‫ﻋن‬‫ﺳﻌر‬‫ﺳﮭم‬)Y(‫ﻟﺷرﻛﺔ‬‫ﻧﻔط‬‫ﺑﻣدﯾﻧﺔ‬‫أوﻛﻼھﻣﺎ‬‫و‬‫أﺳﻌﺎر‬‫اﻟوﻗود‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻣﯾﺔ‬)X(‫ﺧﻼل‬‫اﻟﻔﺗرة‬‫ﻣن‬ 1986 –2015.
‫ﺗﻧﺑﺄ‬‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام‬‫ﺑرﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬‫اﻻﻛﺳل‬‫ﺑﺳﻌر‬‫ﺳﮭم‬‫اﻟﺷرﻛﺔ‬‫ﺧﻼل‬‫ﻋﺎم‬2016‫اﻟﺣﺎﻟﻰ‬‫ﻋﻠﻣﺎ‬‫ﺑﺄن‬‫ﺳﻌر‬
‫اﻟوﻗود‬‫اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻣﻰ‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻟﺳﻧﺔ‬‫ﯾﺗوﻗﻊ‬‫أن‬‫ﯾﻛون‬45‫دوﻻر‬‫ﻟﻠﺑرﻣﯾل‬.
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53. ‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‬ ‫ﺣﻞ‬1
‫اﻟﺣل‬ ‫ﺧطوات‬:
1-‫اﻻﻛﺳل‬ ‫ﺻﻔﺣﺎت‬ ‫إﺣدى‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬ ‫ﻧدﺧل‬.
2-‫اﻟﺗﺎﺑ‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬ ‫ﻋﻣود‬ ‫أﺳﻔل‬‫ﻊ‬Y‫اﻵﺗﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟداﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻧدﺧل‬= Forecast(45,Y,X )
3-‫ﺑﻌد‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺿﻐط‬enter‫اﻟﺷرﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﮭم‬ ‫ﺳﻌر‬ ‫ﺗﻣﺛل‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻣود‬ ‫أﺳﻔل‬ ‫اﻟﻧﺗﯾﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺗظﮭر‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻧﺑﺄ‬
‫ﻋﺎم‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﮫ‬2016‫اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻣﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺑرﻣﯾل‬ ‫ﺳﻌر‬ ‫ﻛﺎن‬ ‫إذا‬45‫دوﻻر‬.
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54. ‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬2
‫اﻟﺗﻌﻠﯾم‬ ‫ﺳﻧوات‬ ‫ﻋدد‬ ‫ﻋن‬ ‫اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬ ‫ﻟدﯾك‬ ‫ﺗوﻓرت‬ ‫إذا‬)X(‫اﻟدﺧل‬ ‫و‬)y(‫ﻣن‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ‬
‫اﻻﺷﺧﺎص‬......‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻌﻠﯾم‬ ‫ﺳﻧوات‬ ‫ﻋدد‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫إذا‬ ‫اﻻﺷﺧﺎص‬ ‫ھؤﻻء‬ ‫ﺑدﺧل‬ ‫ﺗﺑﺄ‬25‫ﻋﺎم‬.
54

55. )2(‫اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج‬‫اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ‬‫ﻟﺴﻼﺳﻞ‬‫اﻟﺰﻣﻨﯿ‬‫ﺔ‬:
‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺳﻠﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺟﺎﻧب‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج‬ ‫ھذه‬ ‫ﺗرﻛز‬.‫اﻋﺗ‬ ‫ﻧﻣوذج‬ ‫ﻟﺑﻧﺎء‬ ‫و‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ً‫ا‬‫ﻣﺎد‬
‫اﻟﺗﺎﻟﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﺧطوات‬ ‫اﻟﺧﻣﺳﺔ‬ ‫اﺗﺑﺎع‬ ‫ﯾﺟب‬ ‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺳﻠﺳﺔ‬:
.1‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬ ‫ﺗﺣدﯾد‬ ‫أو‬ ‫ﺗﻌﯾﯾن‬Model Identification .
.2‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬ ‫ﺗطﺑﯾق‬Model Fitting.
.3‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬ ‫اﺧﺗﺑﺎر‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺷﺧﯾص‬Model Diagnostics.
.4‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤات‬ ‫ﺗوﻟﯾد‬Forecast Generation.
.5‫اﻟﻘرارات‬ ‫ووﺿﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤات‬ ‫اﺳﺗﺧدام‬Implementation & Decision Making
55

56. ‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬ ‫ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ‬ ‫أو‬ ‫ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ‬Model Identification
‫و‬‫ھذا‬‫ﯾﺗم‬‫ﺑرﺳم‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﺳﻠﺳﺔ‬‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬‫ﻓﯾﻣﺎ‬‫ﯾﺳﺳﻣﻰ‬Time plot‫ﺣﯾث‬‫ﯾﻛون‬‫اﻹﺣداﺛﻰ‬‫اﻷﻓﻘﻰ‬‫ھو‬
‫اﻟزﻣن‬‫و‬‫اﻟرأﺳﻰ‬‫ﺣﺟم‬‫اﻟظﺎھرة‬‫اﻟﻣﺷﺎھدة‬‫و‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﺛم‬‫اﺧﺗﯾﺎر‬‫ﻧﻣوذج‬‫رﯾﺎﺿﻰ‬‫ﻣﻌﺗﻣدﯾن‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺑ‬‫ﻌض‬
‫اﻟﻣﻘﺎﯾﯾس‬‫اﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬‫ﺗﻣﯾز‬‫ﻧﻣوذج‬‫ﻋن‬‫آﺧر‬‫و‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﺧﺑرة‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻣدة‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟدراﺳ‬‫ﺎت‬‫و‬
‫اﻷﺑﺣﺎث‬.
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57. ‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬ ‫ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ‬Model Fitting
‫ﺑﻌد‬‫ﺗرﺷﯾﺢ‬‫ﻧﻣوذج‬‫أو‬‫أﻛﺛر‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﻧﻣﺎذج‬‫اﻟﺳﻠﺳﺔ‬‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬‫ﻛﻧﻣوذج‬‫ﻣﻧﺎﺳب‬‫ﻟوﺻف‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﺳ‬‫ﻠﺳﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻣﺷﺎھدة‬‫ﻧﻘوم‬‫ﺑﺗﻘدﯾر‬‫ﻣﻌﺎﻟم‬‫ھذا‬‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬‫اﻟﻣﺷﺎھدة‬‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام‬‫طرق‬‫اﻟﺗﻘ‬‫دﯾر‬
‫اﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻰ‬‫اﻟﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺗﺳﻠﺳﻼت‬‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬‫و‬‫ھذا‬‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬‫اﻟﻣرﺷﺢ‬‫ﯾؤﺧذ‬‫ﻛﻧﻣوذج‬‫أوﻟﻰ‬‫ﻗ‬‫ﺎﺑل‬
‫ﻟﻠﺗﻌدﯾل‬ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﻻﺣﻘ‬
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58. ‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬ ‫اﺧﺘﺒﺎر‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺸﺨﯿﺺ‬Model Diagnostics
‫إﺟراء‬‫اﺧﺗﺑﺎرات‬‫ﺗﻔﺣﺻﯾﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫أﺧطﺎء‬‫اﻟﺗطﺑﯾق‬Error term‫ﻟﻣﻌرﻓﺔ‬‫ﻣدى‬‫ﺗطﺎﺑﻘق‬‫اﻟﻣﺷﺎھدات‬
‫ﻣﻊ‬‫اﻟﻘﯾم‬‫اﻟﻣﺣﺳوﺑﺔ‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬‫اﻟﻣرﺷﺢ‬‫و‬‫ﻣدى‬‫ﺻﺣﺔ‬‫ﻓرﺿﯾﺎت‬‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬.‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬‫اﺟﺗ‬‫ﯾﺎز‬
‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬‫اﻟﻣرﺷﺢ‬‫ﻟﮭذه‬‫اﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎرات‬‫ﻧﻘوم‬‫ﺑﺎﻋﺗﻣﺎده‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫أﻧﮫ‬‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬‫اﻟﻧﮭﺎﺋﻰ‬‫وﯾﺳﺗﺧدام‬‫ﻟﺗوﻟﯾد‬
‫ﺗﻧﺑؤات‬‫ﻟﻠﻘﯾم‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻠﯾﺔ‬‫و‬‫إﻻ‬‫ﻧﻌود‬‫ﻟﻠﺧطوة‬‫اﻷوﻟﻰ‬‫ﻟﺗﻌﯾﯾن‬‫ﻧﻣوذج‬‫ﺟدﯾد‬.
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59. ‫اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆات‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ‬Forecast Generation
‫ﯾﺳﺗﺧدم‬‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬‫اﻟﻧﮭﺎﺋﻰ‬‫ﻟﺗوﻟﯾد‬‫ﺗﻧﺑؤات‬‫ﻋن‬‫اﻟﻘﯾم‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻠﯾﺔ‬‫و‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﺛم‬‫ﺣﺳﺎب‬‫أ‬‫ﺧطﺎء‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﻛﻠﻣﺎ‬
‫اﺳﺗﺟدت‬‫ﻗﯾم‬‫ﺟدﯾدة‬‫ﻣﺷﺎھدة‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﺳﻠﺳﻠﺔ‬‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬‫و‬‫ﻣراﻗﺑﺔ‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻷﺧطﺎء‬‫ﻓﯾﻣﺎ‬‫ﯾﺳﻣﻰ‬‫ﺑﻣ‬‫ﺧططﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻣراﻗﺑﺔ‬‫و‬‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬‫ﺗوﺿﻊ‬‫ﻟﻠﻘﺑول‬‫ﺑﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬‫ﺧطﺄ‬‫ﻣﻌﯾن‬‫إذا‬‫ﺗﺟﺎوزﺗﮫ‬‫أﺧطﺎء‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﯾﻌﺎد‬‫اﻟﻧظر‬‫ﻓﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬‫و‬‫ﺗﻌﺎد‬‫اﻟدورة‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﺟدﯾد‬‫ﺑﺗﺣدﯾد‬‫ﻧﻣوذج‬‫ﻣرﺷﺢ‬‫آﺧر‬.
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60. ‫اﻟﻘﺮارات‬ ‫ووﺿﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆات‬ ‫اﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬Implementation & Decision Making
‫اﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳب‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺷﻛل‬ ‫اﺳﺗﺧداﻣﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻧظر‬ ‫اﻟﻘرار‬ ‫ﻟﺻﺎﻧﻌﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤات‬ ‫ﺗﻘدم‬.
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61. ‫اﻟﺰﻣﻨﯿﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﺎذج‬
‫ﺑﻌد‬‫اﺳﺗﻌراض‬‫ﺧطوات‬‫ﺑﻧﺎء‬‫ﻧﻣوذج‬‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬‫اﺳﺗﺧدام‬‫ﺳﻠﺳﻠﺔ‬‫زﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬‫ﻻﺣظﻧ‬‫ﺎ‬‫أﻧﮫ‬‫ﺑداﯾﺔ‬
‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﺧطوة‬‫اﻟﺛﺎﻧﯾﺔ‬‫ﯾﺗم‬‫اﺧﺗﺑﺎر‬‫ﻧﻣﺎذج‬‫ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﺳﻠﺳﻠﺔ‬‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬‫ﻻﺧﺗﯾﺎر‬‫اﻻﻧﺳب‬‫ﺑ‬‫ﻧﮭﺎ‬‫ﻟﺑﻧﺎء‬
‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬‫و‬‫ﻣن‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج‬:««««««
.1‫ﻧﻣوذج‬‫اﻧﺣدار‬‫ذاﺗﻰ‬AR.
.2‫ﻧﻣوذج‬‫ﻣﺗوﺳطﺎت‬‫ﻣﺗﺣرﻛﺔ‬MA.
.3‫ﻧﻣوذج‬‫ﺑوﻛس‬‫ﺟﻧﻛز‬ARMA.
.4‫ﻧﻣﺎذج‬‫ﻣﺗﺟﮫ‬‫اﻻﻧﺣدار‬‫اﻟذاﺗﻰ‬VAR.
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62. )3(‫ﺗﻔﻜﯿﻚ‬‫اﻟﺴﻼﺳﻞ‬‫اﻟﺰﻣﻨﯿﺔ‬:
Ø‫ﯾﻛﻣن‬‫اﻟﮭدف‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﺗﻔﻛﯾك‬‫اﻟﺳﻼﺳل‬‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫اﻟﺗﻌرف‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫أﻧﻣﺎط‬‫ﺗﻘﻠﺑﮭﺎ‬‫ﻟﺗﺣﺳ‬‫ﯾن‬‫دﻗﺔ‬‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬‫و‬
‫ﺗﻘﺗرن‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻟطرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫ﺑﻧﻣوذج‬‫إﺳﻘﺎط‬‫اﻻﺗﺟﺎه‬‫اﻟﻌﺎم‬‫ﻟﻠﺳﻼﺳل‬‫اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬‫وب‬‫اﻟﺗﺎﻟﻰ‬‫ﻓﺈ‬‫ن‬‫ھذه‬
‫اﻟطرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫ﺗﻔﻘد‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﻗﯾﻣﺗﮭﺎ‬‫إذا‬‫ﻟم‬‫ﯾﻛن‬‫ھﻧﺎك‬‫اﺳﺗﻘرار‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫أﻧﻣﺎط‬‫ﺗﻘﻠب‬‫ﻣﻛوﻧﺎت‬‫اﻟﺳﻠ‬‫ﺳﺔ‬‫ﺳواء‬
‫ﻛﺎﻧت‬‫اﻻﺗﺟﺎه‬‫اﻟﻌﺎم‬‫أو‬‫اﻟﻣوﺳﻣﯾﺔ‬‫أو‬‫ﻏﯾرھﺎ‬.
Ø‫ﻣن‬‫ﺑﯾن‬‫اﻟطرق‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدﻣﺔ‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج‬:
(1‫طرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫اﻟﻣرﺑﻌﺎت‬‫اﻟﺻﻐرى‬.
(2‫طرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫اﻟﻣﺗوﺳطﺎت‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﺣرﻛﺔ‬.
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63. 1-‫اﻟﺼﻐﺮى‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺮﺑﻌﺎت‬ ‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ‬
Ø‫ﺗﻣﺗﺎز‬‫ﺗﻠك‬‫اﻟطرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫ﺑﻘدرﺗﮭﺎ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﺗﺑؤ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﻣدى‬‫اﻟطوﯾل‬‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬‫ﯾﻌﺗﺑر‬‫اﻟزﻣن‬‫ا‬‫ﻟﻌﻧﺻر‬
‫اﻟﻣؤﺛر‬.‫ﻓﺗﻠك‬‫اﻟطرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫ھﻰ‬‫اﻟﺣل‬‫ﻟﺑﻧﺎء‬‫ﻧﻣوذج‬‫اﻧﺣدار‬‫ﺧطﻰ‬‫ﺑﺳﯾط‬.
Ø‫و‬‫اﻟﮭدف‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﺑﻧﺎء‬‫ﻧﻣوذج‬‫اﻧﺣدار‬‫ﺧطﻰ‬‫ﺑﺳﯾط‬‫ھو‬‫دراﺳﺔ‬‫أﺛر‬‫أﺣد‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرﯾن‬‫و‬‫ﯾﺳﻣﻰ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘل‬‫أو‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻧﺑﺄ‬‫ﻣﻧﮫ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬‫اﻟﺛﺎﻧﻰ‬‫و‬‫ﯾﺳﻣﻰ‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬‫اﻟﺗ‬‫ﺎﺑﻊ‬‫أو‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻧﺑﺄ‬‫ﺑﮫ‬.
63

64. Ø‫ﯾﺄﺧد‬‫ﻧﻣوذج‬‫اﻻﻧﺣدار‬‫اﻟﺧطﻰ‬‫ﺷﻛل‬‫ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬‫ﺧطﯾﺔ‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟدرﺟﺔ‬‫اﻻوﻟﻰ‬‫ﺗﻌﻛس‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬‫اﻟﺗ‬‫ﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫ﻛداﻟﺔ‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘل‬‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬‫ﯾﻠﻰ‬:
Y:‫ھو‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬‫اﻟﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬‫اﻟذى‬‫ﯾﺗﺄﺛر‬.
X:‫ھو‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘل‬‫اﻟذى‬‫ﯾؤﺛر‬.
β0:‫ھو‬‫اﻟﺣد‬‫اﻟﺛﺎﺑت‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬‫اﻧﻌدام‬‫ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘل‬o)X=(.
β1:‫ﻣﻘدار‬‫اﻟﺗﻐﯾر‬‫ﻓﻰ‬Y‫إذا‬‫ﺗﻐﯾرت‬X‫ﺑوﺣدة‬‫واﺣدة‬.
e:‫ھو‬‫اﻟﺧطﺄ‬‫اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﻰ‬‫و‬‫اﻟذى‬‫ﯾﻌﺑر‬‫ﻋن‬‫اﻟﻔرق‬‫ﺑﯾن‬‫اﻟﻘﯾﻣﺔ‬‫اﻟﻔﻌﻠﯾﺔ‬‫ل‬Y‫و‬‫اﻟﻘﯾﻣﺔ‬‫اﻟﻣﻘدرة‬
64

65. ‫اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺨﻄﺄ‬e
Ø‫اﻟﻣﺗﻧﺑﺄ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﯾم‬ ‫ﻣدى‬ ‫أى‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫أن‬ ‫أى‬ ‫اﻟﻧﻣوذج‬ ‫ﺑﻧﺎء‬ ‫ﺟودة‬ ‫ﻣدة‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺣﻛم‬ ‫ﯾﻌﺗﺑرﻣﻌﯾﺎر‬^y‫ﺑﮭﺎ‬
‫اﻟﻣﺷﺎھدة‬ ‫أو‬ ‫اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﯾم‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫ﻗرﯾﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬y:
Ø‫رﯾﺎﺿﯾﺎ‬:
x 1+ β0β= ^y.....)x1+ β0β−(y = e
‫ﺷﻛل‬‫اﻟﺧطﺄ‬‫ﺑﯾﺎﻧﯾﺎ‬:
65

66. ‫اﻟﺒﺴﯿﻂ‬ ‫اﻟﺨﻄﻰ‬ ‫اﻻﻧﺤﺪار‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮذج‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮ‬
‫ﯾﻣﻛن‬‫ﺗﻘدﯾر‬‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت‬‫اﻻﻧﺣدار‬)1β,0β(‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام‬‫طرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫اﻟﻣرﺑﻌﺎت‬‫اﻟﺻﻐرى‬‫و‬‫ھذا‬‫اﻟﺗﻘدﯾ‬‫ر‬
‫ھو‬‫اﻟذى‬‫ﯾﺟﻌل‬‫ﻣﺟﻣوع‬‫ﻣرﺑﻌﺎت‬‫اﻻﺧطﺎء‬‫اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﯾﺔ‬
2))x1β+0β−(y(Σ=2eΣ‫أﻗل‬‫ﻣﺎ‬‫ﯾﻣﻛن‬‫و‬‫ﯾﺣﺳب‬‫ھذا‬‫اﻟﺗﻘدﯾر‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬‫اﻵﺗﯾﺔ‬:
66

67. ‫اﻻﻧﺤﺪار‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮذج‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮ‬ ‫اﻛﺴﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫اﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫اﻟﺒﺴﯿﻂ‬ ‫اﻟﺨﻄﻰ‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬3:
‫رﻏب‬‫اﺣد‬‫اﻟﺑﻧوك‬‫ﻣﻌرﻓﺔ‬‫اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬‫ﺑﯾن‬‫ﻋدد‬‫ﺳﺎﻋﺎت‬‫اﻟﻌﻣل‬‫ﻟﻣوظﻔﯾﮭﺎ‬‫وﻣﺳﺗوى‬‫اﻹﻧﺗﺎﺟﯾ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻟﮭم‬
‫،ﻓﻘﺎﻣوا‬‫ﺑﺟﻣﻊ‬‫ﻣﻌﻠوﻣﺎت‬‫ﻋن‬‫ھذا‬‫اﻟﻣوﺿوع‬‫وذﻟك‬‫ﺑﺳﺣب‬‫ﻋﯾﻧﺔ‬‫ﻣن‬١٠‫ﻣوظﻔﯾن‬‫وﺣﺻﻠوا‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬‫اﻟﺗﺎﻟﯾﺔ‬:
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام‬‫ﺑرﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬‫اﻻﻛﺳل‬‫ﻗدر‬‫ﻣﻌﺎدرﻟﺔ‬‫اﻧﺣدار‬‫ﻣﺳﺗوى‬‫اﻻﻧﺗﺎﺟﯾﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺳﺎﻋﺎت‬‫اﻟﻌﻣل‬.
67

68. ‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‬ ‫ﺣﻞ‬3
‫اﻟﺣل‬ ‫ﺧطوات‬:
1-‫اﻻﻛﺳل‬ ‫ﺻﻔﺣﺎت‬ ‫إﺣدى‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬ ‫ﻧدﺧل‬.
2-‫ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣن‬Data‫اﺧﺗﺎر‬Data analysis.
3-‫ﻧﺧﺗﺎر‬regression ‫ﻧﺿﻐط‬ ‫و‬ok .
4-‫ﻣن‬ ‫ﻟﻛل‬ ‫اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬ ‫ﻣدى‬ ‫ﻣﻧﮫ‬ ‫ﻧﺣدد‬ ‫اﻟذى‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻷﺗﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺣوارى‬ ‫اﻟﻣرﺑﻊ‬ ‫ﯾظﮭر‬x‫و‬y‫وﻧﺣدد‬ ‫و‬
‫ﻟﻠﻣﺧرﺟﺎت‬ ‫ﻣﻛﺎن‬.
68

69. 69

70. ‫اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬
‫ﻋﻣود‬ ‫ﺑﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫اﻻﺧﯾر‬ ‫اﻟﺟدول‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻧظر‬ ‫و‬coefficients
‫ﻛﺎﻵﺗﻰ‬ ‫اﻻﻧﺣدار‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﺗﺎﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﯾﻣﻛن‬:
Y= -1.22 + 0.9 X
‫ﻣﻌﯾن‬ ‫إﻧﺗﺎﺟﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺗوى‬ ‫ﺗوﻗﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﻘرار‬ ‫ﺻﺎﻧﻊ‬ ‫ﯾﺳﺗطﯾﻊ‬ ‫ھﻧﺎ‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫و‬Y‫اﻟﻌﻣل‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻋﺎت‬ ‫ﻋدد‬ ‫ﺗﻐﯾﯾر‬ ‫ﻋﻧد‬X.
70

71. ‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬4
‫إذا‬‫ﺗوﻓرت‬‫ﻟدﯾك‬‫ﺳﻠﺳﻠﺔ‬‫زﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬‫ﻋن‬‫ﻋدد‬‫اﻟﻘوى‬‫اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫ﻣﺻر‬‫و‬
‫اﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ‬‫اﻟﻣﺣﻠﻰ‬‫اﻻﺟﻣﺎﻟﻰ‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫اﻟﻔﺗرة‬‫ﻣﺎ‬‫ﺑﯾن‬1960-2011‫ﺑﺣﯾث‬:
‫اﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ‬‫اﻟﻣﺣﻠﻰ‬‫اﻻﺟﻣﺎﻟﻰ‬‫ﯾﻣﺛل‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬‫اﻟﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬y.
‫اﻟﻘوى‬‫اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬‫ﺗﻣﺛل‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘل‬x.
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام‬‫ﺑرﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬‫اﻻﻛﺳل‬‫ﻗدر‬‫ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬‫اﻧﺣدار‬‫اﻟﻘوى‬‫اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺳﺗوى‬‫اﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ‬‫اﻟﻣﺣﻠﻰ‬‫اﻻﺟﻣﺎﻟﻰ‬‫ّ؟‬‫؟‬ّ‫؟‬
71

72. 2-‫اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎت‬ ‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ‬
Ø‫اﻟﻣﺗوﺳط‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﺣرك‬‫ھو‬‫اﻟوﺳط‬‫اﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻰ‬‫اﻟﺑﺳﯾط‬‫أو‬‫اﻟﻣرﺟﺢ‬‫ﻟﻌدد‬‫ﻓردى‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﻗﯾم‬‫ﻣﺗﺗ‬‫ﺎﻟﯾﺔ‬‫ﻟﺳﻠﺳﺔ‬
‫زﻣﻧﯾﺔ‬‫ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ‬.‫و‬‫ﺗﻌﺑر‬‫ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬‫اﻟﻣﺗوﺳط‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﺣرك‬‫ﻋن‬‫ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر‬‫ﻟﻠﺳﻧﺔ‬‫اﻟوﺳطﻰ‬‫و‬‫ﻓﺎﺋدة‬
‫اﻟﻣﺗوﺳط‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﺣرك‬‫ھو‬‫إﻟﻐﺎء‬‫اﻟﺗذﺑذﺑﺎت‬‫اﻟﻛﺑﯾرة‬‫ﻣن‬‫اﻟﺳﻠﺳﺔ‬‫أى‬‫إﻟﻐﺎء‬‫اﻟﻔﺟوات‬‫اﻟﻛ‬‫ﺑﯾرة‬‫ﺑﯾن‬
‫اﻟﻘﯾم‬‫اﻟﻣﺷﺎھدة‬‫ﻟﻠﺳﻠﺳﺔ‬‫و‬‫اﺗﺟﺎھﮭﺎ‬‫اﻟﻌﺎم‬.
Ø‫دﻗﺔ‬‫اﻟﺗﺑﺄ‬‫ﺑﺈﺳﺗﺧدام‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻟطرﯾﻘﺔ‬‫ﺗﻌﺗﻣد‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﺣﺻول‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫أﺻﻐر‬‫ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﺧطﺄ‬‫اﻟﻌ‬‫ﺷواﺋﻰ‬e‫و‬
‫اﻟذى‬‫ﯾﻣﻛن‬‫ﺣﺳﺎﺑﮫ‬‫ﺑﺄﺣد‬‫اﻟطرﯾﻘﺗﯾن‬:
1- Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) = (Σ | ei | )/n
2- Mean Squared Error (MSE) = (Σ ei
2 )/n
72

73. 2a. Simple Moving Average
•Assumes an average is a good estimator of future
behavior
• Used if little or no trend
• Used for smoothing
n
A+...+A+A+A
=F 1n-t2-t1-tt
1t
+
+
Ft+1 = Forecast for the upcoming period, t+1
n = Number of periods to be averaged
A t = Actual occurrence in period t

74. 2a. Simple Moving Average
You’re manager in Amazon’s electronics department.
You want to forecast ipod sales for months 4-6 using a
3-period moving average.
n
A+...+A+A+A
=F 1n-t2-t1-tt
1t
+
+
Month
Sales
(000)
1 4
2 6
3 5
4 ?
5 ?
6 ?

75. 2a. Simple Moving Average
n
A+...+A+A+A
=F 1n-t2-t1-tt
1t
+
+
Month
Sales
(000)
Moving Average
(n=3)
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 ?
5 ?
(4+6+5)/3=5
6 ?
You’re manager in Amazon’s electronics
department. You want to forecast ipod sales for
months 4-6 using a 3-period moving average.

76. What if ipod sales were actually 3 in month 4
Month
Sales
(000)
Moving Average
(n=3)
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 3
5 ?
5
6 ?
2a. Simple Moving Average
?

77. Forecast for Month 5?
Month
Sales
(000)
Moving Average
(n=3)
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 3
5 ?
5
6 ?
(6+5+3)/3=4.667
2a. Simple Moving Average

78. Actual Demand for Month 5 = 7
Month
Sales
(000)
Moving Average
(n=3)
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 3
5 7
5
6 ?
4.667
2a. Simple Moving Average
?

79. Forecast for Month 6?
Month
Sales
(000)
Moving Average
(n=3)
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 3
5 7
5
6 ?
4.667
(5+3+7)/3=5
2a. Simple Moving Average

80. ‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬5
‫ﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬ ‫ﻟدﯾك‬ ‫ﺗوﻓرت‬ ‫إذا‬20‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻣزرﻋﺔ‬ ‫داﺧل‬ ‫اﻟﺣﻠﯾب‬ ‫اﻧﺗﺎج‬ ‫ﻋن‬ ‫ﯾوم‬.....‫طرﯾ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام‬ ‫ﺗﻧﺑﺄ‬‫ﻘﺔ‬
‫اﻟﯾوم‬ ‫ﺧﻼل‬ ‫اﻟﻣزرﻋﺔ‬ ‫اﻧﺗﺎج‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺗﺣرﻛﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺗوﺳطﺎت‬21.
80

81. ‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‬ ‫ﺣﻞ‬5
‫اﻟﺣل‬ ‫ﺧطوات‬:
1-‫ﯾوﺿ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻋﻣدة‬ ‫ﻋﻧوان‬ ‫إدﺧﺎل‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻻﻛس‬ ‫ﺑﺑرﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﻋﻣل‬ ‫ورﻗﺔ‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬ ‫إدﺧﺎل‬ ‫ﯾﺗم‬‫ﺢ‬
‫اﻟﺗﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺷﻛل‬:
2-‫أﯾﺎم‬ ‫ﺛﻼﺛﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻛل‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺗوﺳط‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎب‬ ‫ﻧﺧﺗﺎر‬(N=3).
3-‫ﻋﻣود‬ ‫ﺗﺣت‬ ‫اﻟراﺑﻌﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺷﺎھدة‬ ‫ﻋﻧد‬ ‫ﻧﻘف‬yhat‫اﻻﺗﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻧدﺧل‬ ‫و‬:
=AVERAGE(B3:B5)
81

82. 4-‫ﻻ‬‫داﻋﻰ‬‫ﻹدﺧﺎل‬‫اﻟﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬‫ﻣرة‬‫ﺛﺎﻧﯾﺔ‬‫و‬‫ﻟﻛن‬‫ﻧﻌﺗم‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺧﺎﺻﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﺳﺣب‬‫ﻻﺳﻔل‬‫ﻟﻛل‬‫اﻟ‬‫ﻌﻣود‬
‫إﻟﻰ‬‫أن‬‫ﻧﺻل‬‫إﻟﻰ‬‫اﻟﯾوم‬20‫و‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻰ‬‫ﻧﻛون‬‫ﺣﺻﻠﻧﺎ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﻣﺗوﺳك‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﺣرك‬‫ﻟﻼﻧﺗﺎج‬‫اﻟ‬‫ﯾوﻣﻰ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺣﻠﯾب‬‫و‬‫ھﻰ‬‫اﻟﻘﯾم‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﺑﺄ‬‫ﺑﮭﺎ‬y hat.
5-‫ﺑﻌد‬‫ذﻟك‬‫ﻧﺄﺧذ‬‫اﻟﻘﯾﻣﺔ‬‫اﻟﻣطﻠﻘﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﻔرق‬‫ﺑﯾن‬y – y hat‫و‬‫ھذه‬‫اﻟﻘﯾﻣﺔ‬‫ﺗﻣﺛل‬‫اﻟﺧطﺄ‬‫اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﻰ‬
‫ﺑﺈدﺧﺎل‬‫اﻟداﻟﺔ‬)yhat-yABS(=‫ﻓﻰ‬‫اﻟﺧﻠﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﻣﺷﺎھدة‬‫اﻟراﺑﻌﺔ‬‫ﺗﺣت‬‫ﻋﻣود‬|ie|.
6-‫ﯾﺗم‬‫اﻟﺳﺣب‬‫ﻷﺳﻔل‬‫ﻟﺣﺳﺎب‬‫اﻟﺧطﺄ‬‫اﻟﻣطﻠق‬‫ﻟﺑﺎﻗﻰ‬‫اﻟﻣﺷﺎھدات‬.
7-‫ﯾﺗم‬‫ﺣﺳﺎب‬‫ال‬MAD‫ﻣن‬‫ﺧﻼل‬‫إدﺧﺎل‬‫داﻟﺔ‬=AVERAGE‫أﺳﻔل‬‫ﻧﻔس‬‫اﻟﻌﻣود‬.
82

83. 8-‫ﯾﺗم‬‫ﺣﺳﺎب‬‫اﻟﻌﻣود‬‫اﻻﺧﯾر‬2
ie‫ﻣن‬‫ﺧﻼل‬‫ﺗرﺑﯾﻌرﻋﻣود‬|ie|‫ﻓﻣﺛﻼ‬‫ﻟﻠﻣﺷﺎھدة‬‫رﻗم‬4‫ﯾﺗم‬
‫إدﺧﺎل‬=D6^2‫و‬‫اﻟﺿﻐط‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ا‬enter.
9-‫ﯾﺗم‬‫اﻟﺣﺻول‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫اﻟﻘﯾﻣﺔ‬‫اﻟﻣﺗﺑﺄ‬‫ﺑﮭﺎ‬‫ﻟﻼﻧﺗﺎج‬‫اﻟﺣﻠﯾب‬‫ﻓﻰ‬‫اﻟﯾوم‬21‫ﻣن‬‫ﺧﻼل‬‫اﻟوﻗوف‬‫داﺧل‬
‫اﻟﺧﻠﯾﺔ‬‫أﺳﻔل‬‫ﻋﻣود‬yhat‫و‬‫إدﺧﺎل‬‫اﻟداﻟﺔ‬‫اﻻﺗﯾﺔ‬:
= AVERAGE(last three observations)
83

84. ‫ﻟﻠﺧطﺄ‬ ‫ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬ ‫أﻗل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺣﺻول‬ ‫ھو‬ ‫اﻟطرﯾﻘﺔ‬ ‫ھذه‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫اﻟﮭدف‬MAD‫و‬MSE‫أن‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﺄﻛد‬
‫اﻟﯾوم‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﮭﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺗﺑﺄ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﯾﻣﺔ‬21‫ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬ ‫ھﻰ‬)‫ﻣﺷﺎھدﺗ‬ ‫ﯾﺗم‬ ‫ﺳوف‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﯾﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺟدا‬ ‫ﻗرﯾﺑﺔ‬‫ﮭﺎ‬.
‫ﻟــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــﺬﻟـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــﻚ‬
‫ﯾﺗم‬‫اﺧﺗﯾﺎر‬‫ﻗﯾم‬‫ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬‫ل‬n‫أﻛﺑر‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﺛﻼﺛﺔ‬‫ﻣﺛﻼ‬‫ارﺑﻌﺔ‬‫او‬‫ﺧﻣﺳﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﺗﺄﻛد‬‫ﻣن‬‫أن‬‫ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬‫اﻟﺧطﺄ‬‫ﻋ‬‫ﻧد‬
n=3‫أﻗل‬‫ﻣﺎ‬‫ﯾﻣﻛن‬‫و‬‫ھو‬‫ﻣﺎ‬‫ﺳﺗﻘوﻣون‬‫ﺑﮫ‬‫ﻣن‬‫ﺧﻼل‬‫ﺗﻣرﯾن‬6.
84

85. ‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬6:
‫ﺗﻣرﯾن‬ ‫ﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام‬5‫اﻟﻣﺷﺎھدة‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﯾم‬ ‫ﻗرﯾﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﮭﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺗﻧﺑﺄ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﯾﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻧت‬ ‫إذا‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﻛد‬)‫ﺑ‬‫ﻗم‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻧﻰ‬
‫ﺑﺣﺳﺎب‬MAD‫و‬MSE(‫ﻋﻧد‬n=4.
85

86. 2b. Weighted Moving Average
• Gives more emphasis to recent data
• Weights
• decrease for older data
• sum to 1.0
1n-tn2-t31-t2t11t Aw+...+Aw+Aw+Aw=F ++
Simple moving
average models
weight all previous
periods equally

87. 2b. Weighted Moving Average: 3/6, 2/6, 1/6 1n-tn2-t31-t2t11t Aw+...+Aw+Aw+Aw=F ++
Month Weighted
Moving
Average
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 31/6 = 5.167
5
6 ?
?
?
Sales
(000)

88. 2b. Weighted Moving Average: 3/6, 2/6, 1/6 1n-tn2-t31-t2t11t Aw+...+Aw+Aw+Aw=F ++
Month Sales
(000)
Weighted
Moving
Average
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 3 31/6 = 5.167
5 7
6
25/6 = 4.167
32/6 = 5.333

89. 3a. Exponential Smoothing
•Assumes the most recent observations have the
highest predictive value
• gives more weight to recent time periods
Ft+1 = Ft + a(At - Ft)
et
Ft+1 = Forecast value for time t+1
At = Actual value at time t
a = Smoothing constant
Need initial
forecast Ft
to start.

90. 3a. Exponential Smoothing – Example 1
Given the weekly demand
data what are the exponential
smoothing forecasts for
periods 2-10 using a=0.10?
Assume F1=D1
Week Demand
1 820
2 775
3 680
4 655
5 750
6 802
7 798
8 689
9 775
10
Ft+1 = Ft + a(At - Ft)
i Ai

91. Week Demand 0.1 0.6
1 820 820.00 820.00
2 775 820.00 820.00
3 680 815.50 793.00
4 655 801.95 725.20
5 750 787.26 683.08
6 802 783.53 723.23
7 798 785.38 770.49
8 689 786.64 787.00
9 775 776.88 728.20
10 776.69 756.28
Ft+1 = Ft + a(At - Ft)
3a. Exponential Smoothing – Example 1
a =
F2 = F1+ a(A1–F1) =820+.1(820–820)
=820
i Ai Fi

92. Week Demand 0.1 0.6
1 820 820.00 820.00
2 775 820.00 820.00
3 680 815.50 793.00
4 655 801.95 725.20
5 750 787.26 683.08
6 802 783.53 723.23
7 798 785.38 770.49
8 689 786.64 787.00
9 775 776.88 728.20
10 776.69 756.28
Ft+1 = Ft + a(At - Ft)
3a. Exponential Smoothing – Example 1
a =
F3 = F2+ a(A2–F2) =820+.1(775–820)
=815.5
i Ai Fi

93. Week Demand 0.1 0.6
1 820 820.00 820.00
2 775 820.00 820.00
3 680 815.50 793.00
4 655 801.95 725.20
5 750 787.26 683.08
6 802 783.53 723.23
7 798 785.38 770.49
8 689 786.64 787.00
9 775 776.88 728.20
10 776.69 756.28
Ft+1 = Ft + a(At - Ft)
This process
continues
through week 10
3a. Exponential Smoothing – Example 1
a =
i Ai Fi

94. Week Demand 0.1 0.6
1 820 820.00 820.00
2 775 820.00 820.00
3 680 815.50 793.00
4 655 801.95 725.20
5 750 787.26 683.08
6 802 783.53 723.23
7 798 785.38 770.49
8 689 786.64 787.00
9 775 776.88 728.20
10 776.69 756.28
Ft+1 = Ft + a(At - Ft)
What if the
a constant
equals 0.6
3a. Exponential Smoothing – Example 1
a = a =
i Ai Fi

95. Month Demand 0.3 0.6
January 120 100.00 100.00
February 90 106.00 112.00
March 101 101.20 98.80
April 91 101.14 100.12
May 115 98.10 94.65
June 83 103.17 106.86
July 97.12 92.54
August
September
Ft+1 = Ft + a(At - Ft)
What if the
a constant
equals 0.6
3a. Exponential Smoothing – Example 2
a = a =
i Ai Fi

96. Company A, a personal computer producer
purchases generic parts and assembles them to
final product. Even though most of the orders
require customization, they have many common
components. Thus, managers of Company A need
a good forecast of demand so that they can
purchase computer parts accordingly to minimize
inventory cost while meeting acceptable service
level. Demand data for its computers for the past 5
months is given in the following table.
3a. Exponential Smoothing – Example 3

97. Month Demand 0.3 0.5
January 80 84.00 84.00
February 84 82.80 82.00
March 82 83.16 83.00
April 85 82.81 82.50
May 89 83.47 83.75
June 85.13 86.38
July ?? ??
Ft+1 = Ft + a(At - Ft)
What if the
a constant
equals 0.5
3a. Exponential Smoothing – Example 3
a = a =
i Ai Fi

98. 3a. Exponential Smoothing
• How to choose α
• depends on the emphasis you want to place on the most recent data
• Increasing αmakes forecast more sensitive to recent data

99. Ft+1 = a At + a(1- a) At - 1 + a(1- a)2At - 2 + ...
Forecast Effects of
Smoothing Constant a
Weights
Prior Period
a
2 periods ago
a(1 - a)
3 periods ago
a(1 - a)2
a=
a= 0.10
a= 0.90
10% 9% 8.1%
90% 9% 0.9%
Ft+1 = Ft + a (At - Ft)
or
w1 w2 w3

100. 100
‫اﻟﺳﻧوات‬
‫اﻟﻘﯾﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﻠﯾون‬
‫دوﻻر‬
2001 4,153
2002 5,289
2003 8,273
2004 9,534
2005 10,089
2006 9,688
2007 12,675
2008 18,832
2009 20,297
2010 23,094
2011 31,028
2012 30,548
2013 31,559
2014 43,253
2015 40,918 0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
‫اﻟﻛﮭرﺑﺎﺋﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻣطﺑﺦ‬ ‫أدوات‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫اﻟﻣﻐرب‬ ‫واردات‬ ‫ﺗطور‬

101. 101
Timeline Values Forecast
Lower
Confidenc
e Bound
Upper
Confidenc
e Bound
2001 4,153
2002 5,289
2003 8,273
2004 9,534
2005 10,089
2006 9,688
2007 12,675
2008 18,832
2009 20,297
2010 23,094
2011 31,028
2012 30,548
2013 31,559
2014 43,253
2015 40,918 40,918 40,918 40,918
2016 45,975 38,621 53,330
2017 49,293 37,992 60,593
2018 52,610 35,939 69,282
2019 55,928 32,866 78,989
2020 59,245 28,972 89,518
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Values Forecast Lower Confidence Bound Upper Confidence Bound

102. ‫اﻹﺣﺼ‬ ‫واﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺮاﻣﺞ‬ ‫أھﻢ‬‫ﺎﺋﻲ‬
102

103. ‫ﻣﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺎدر‬:
103
-‫ﺟﻣﺎل‬‫ﺣﺎﻣد‬)2003(‫اﻟﻌدد‬ ،‫اﻟﺗﻧﻣﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﺟﺳر‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺳﻠﺔ‬ ،‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ‬ ‫أﺳﺎﻟﯾب‬ ،14‫اﻟﻣﺟﻠد‬ ،)2(‫اﻟﻣﻌﮭد‬ ،
‫اﻟﻛوﯾت‬ ،‫ﻟﻠﺗﺧطﯾط‬ ‫اﻟﻌرﺑﻲ‬.
-‫ﺳﯾﺟل‬ ‫إﯾرﯾك‬)2015(‫اﻟﺗﺣﻠﯾﻼت‬ ،‫اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤﯾﺔ‬‫ﺟرﯾر‬ ‫ﻣﻛﺗﺑﺔ‬ ،.
-‫ھﺎﻧد‬ ‫ﺟﯾﮫ‬ ‫دﯾﻔﯾد‬)2016(‫ﺳﻠﺳﻠﺔ‬ ،‫اﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﻋﻠم‬ ،“ً‫ا‬‫ﺟد‬ ‫ﻗﺻﯾرة‬ ‫ﻣﻘدﻣﺔ‬”‫ھﻧداوي‬ ‫ﻣؤﺳﺳﺔ‬ ،
‫واﻟﺛﻘﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻌﻠﯾم‬.
- Chia-Chien Hsu (2007), “The Delphi Technique: Making Sense Of
Consensus”, Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Volume 12,
Number 10, August 2007
- Ravi Mahendra Gor INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS AND OPERATIONAL
MANAGEMENT

104. ‫أﺷﻜﺮﻛﻢ‬
‫د‬.‫ﷲ‬ ‫ﻓﺗﺢ‬ ‫ﻣﺣﻣود‬
‫اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدي‬ ‫اﻟﻘطﺎع‬-‫اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟدول‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬
‫إﻟﻜﺘﺮوﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﯾﺪ‬:Mahmoud.fathallah@las.int
‫ﻣﻜﺘﺐ‬:25750511202+‫داﺧﻠﻲ‬)3021(
‫ﻣﺤﻤﻮل‬:010068206512+