The survey finds that Utah registered voters are reluctant to favor any of the four Medicaid expansion proposals currently being considered by Governor Herbert and the state legislature. Of the four Medicaid expansion proposals that were tested in the survey, no individual proposal received 50% support among respondents. After explaining the details of each proposal in a stand-alone question format, on average 30% of respondents were unsure if they favored or opposed the proposals. Of the four proposals, the “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” proposal had the highest percentage of voters favoring a proposal with 45% and the lowest percentage opposing a proposal at 26%.
The Healthy Utah Proposal was favored by 32% of respondents, opposed by 40% of respondents, and 28% were unsure or did not have an opinion of the proposal. The Traditional Medicaid Expansion and Partial Medicaid Expansion proposals were the least favored proposals by voters, with only 21% and 19% favoring them respectively. A near majority of 49% and 48% of voters oppose the Traditional and Partial Medicaid Expansion proposals, respectively.
After respondents were informed about the details of each proposal and then asked to choose which one they believed was the best proposal that should be implemented, a plurality of 31% chose the “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” proposal. Seventeen percent chose the Healthy Utah Proposal, 15% chose the Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal, and 10% chose the Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal. One in five respondents, or 20%, were unsure or did not know which proposal was the best and should be implemented, and 7% did not like any of the proposals.
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Sutherland Institute Utah Medicare Expansion Survey Summary 091514
1. !
SEPTEMBER 15, 2014
MEMORANDUM
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN STRATEGIES
RE: UTAH MEDICAID EXPANSION SURVEY SUMMARY
________________________________________________________________________
This memorandum is a summary of a 500n live interview landline and cell phone
survey of registered voters in Utah. The survey was fielded on September 8 and 9,
and has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95% confidence level. The focus of
this research was to measure voter opinion of four different Medicaid expansion
proposals being considered by Governor Gary Herbert and the Utah Legislature.
The four proposals presented in the survey include the Traditional Medicaid
Expansion Proposal, the Partial Expansion Proposal, the Healthy Utah Proposal,
and a “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” Proposal. The full topline results of
the survey are also included in this document.
Survey Instrument Design
The survey questions were designed to first measure voter awareness and interest in
the Medicaid expansion issue and then inform respondents how the Utah Medicaid
expansion debate came about. Respondents were then read information about each
of the four Medicaid expansion proposals in stand-alone question format in random
order, and then asked to choose which proposal they believed was the best and
should be implemented. Except where otherwise cited, cost and enrollment figures
for each proposal were obtained from materials produced for Utah legislators by
the Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst or the Office of Legislative Research and
General Counsel.
Summary of Findings
The survey finds that Utah registered voters are reluctant to favor any of the four
Medicaid expansion proposals currently being considered by Governor Herbert
and the state legislature. Of the four Medicaid expansion proposals that were tested
in the survey, no individual proposal received 50% support among respondents.
After explaining the details of each proposal in a stand-alone question format, on
average 30% of respondents were unsure if they favored or opposed the proposals.
Of the four proposals, the “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” proposal had the
highest percentage of voters favoring a proposal with 45% and the lowest
percentage opposing a proposal at 26%.
2. Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary
September 15th, 2014
Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585
2
The Healthy Utah Proposal was favored by 32% of respondents, opposed by 40%
of respondents, and 28% were unsure or did not have an opinion of the proposal.
The Traditional Medicaid Expansion and Partial Medicaid Expansion proposals
were the least favored proposals by voters, with only 21% and 19% favoring them
respectively. A near majority of 49% and 48% of voters oppose the Traditional and
Partial Medicaid Expansion proposals, respectively.
After respondents were informed about the details of each proposal and then asked
to choose which one they believed was the best proposal that should be
implemented, a plurality of 31% chose the “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now”
proposal. Seventeen percent chose the Healthy Utah Proposal, 15% chose the
Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal, and 10% chose the Partial Medicaid
Expansion Proposal. One in five respondents, or 20%, were unsure or did not know
which proposal was the best and should be implemented, and 7% did not like any
of the proposals.
Utah Voter Interest and Awareness of Medicaid Expansion Proposals
Among all voters, 31% responded as being either extremely interested (11%), or
very interested (20%) in the debate surrounding the expansion of Medicaid in Utah,
and a plurality of 49% responded as being somewhat interested. Eighteen percent
of registered voters responded as not being interested at all. Awareness of the
Medicaid expansion debate is strong among all voters, with 76% of respondents
having seen, read or heard at least a little information about the Medicaid
expansion debate. Among all voters, 10% have seen, read or heard a lot of
information, 31% some information, and 35% a little bit of information about the
Medicaid expansion proposals. Only 24% of Utah voters have not seen any
information at all about the Medicaid expansion proposals.
Voter Opinion of Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal
The Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal question was presented to
respondents with the following information.
“One proposal is referred to as the Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal. This
proposal would expand Utah’s traditional Medicaid program to individuals at 138
percent of the federal poverty level as required by Obamacare. It would allow more
than 160,000 individuals in Utah to obtain Medicaid coverage, although the actual
number of qualifying individuals may be significantly higher, based on
unexpectedly high enrollment in other states that have expanded Medicaid.i Some
of the individuals that would be covered under this proposal currently have private
health insurance, while others do not. It is estimated that just over 63 percent of
working age adults in this group are single, and 61 percent do not have
children.ii By 2021, this plan is estimated to cost $60 million in state tax dollars,
with the remaining cost of $640 million paid for with funding from the federal
3. Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary
September 15th, 2014
Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585
3
government. If federal funding were cut in the future, Utah lawmakers would have
to decide whether to pay more state tax dollars to continue health coverage or cut
Medicaid health benefits.”
“After hearing the information about this proposal, would you say you strongly
favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided
about this proposal?”
Among all voters, 49% oppose the Traditional Medicaid Expansion proposal, 21%
favor the proposal, and 30% were unsure or did not have an opinion of the
proposal.
Voter Opinion of Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal by Voter Subgroup
All
Voters
Men
Wom
All
Rep
Cons.
Rep
Mod
Rep
All
Ind
Cons.
Ind
Mod
Ind
All
Dem
Total Favor 21% 21% 22% 9% 5% 19% 29% 14% 40% 45%
Total Oppose 49% 55% 45% 60% 66% 52% 45% 59% 38% 18%
No Opinion 30% 24% 33% 31% 29% 29% 26% 27% 22% 37%
Voter Opinion of Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal by Voter Subgroup
All
Voters
CD
01
CD
02
CD
03
CD
04
30K
Less
31K
70K
71K
100K
101K
More
Age
65+
Total Favor 21% 19% 21% 28% 18% 25% 23% 24% 20% 20%
Total Oppose 49% 52% 46% 47% 52% 50% 48% 55% 48% 54%
No Opinion 30% 29% 33% 25% 30% 25% 29% 21% 32% 26%
Voter Opinion of Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal
The Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal question was presented to respondents
with the following information.
“One proposal is referred to as the Partial Medicaid Expansion proposal. This
proposal would subsidize private health coverage for anyone making less than 100
percent of the federal poverty level, which is estimated to be at least 70,000
individuals. It is estimated that 66 percent of the working age adults in this group
are single, and 66 percent do not have children.iii By 2021, this plan is estimated to
cost $25 million in state tax dollars if the federal government approves a more
generous federal funding option for this proposal, with the remaining cost of $275
million paid for with funding from the federal government. If the federal
government turns down the more generous federal funding option, approximately
$75 million in state tax dollars would be required and federal funding would go
down to approximately $225 million.iv In either case, if federal funding were cut in
the future, Utah lawmakers would have to decide whether to pay more state tax
dollars to continue health coverage or cut Medicaid health benefits.”
4. Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary
September 15th, 2014
Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585
4
“After hearing the information about this proposal, would you say you strongly
favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided
about this proposal?”
Voter Opinion of the Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal by Voter Subgroup
All
Voters
Men
Wom
All
Rep
Cons.
Rep
Mod
Rep
All
Ind
Cons.
Ind
Mod
Ind
All
Dem
Total Favor 19% 19% 19% 15% 12% 21% 22% 6% 38% 31%
Total Oppose 48% 52% 44% 51% 54% 46% 49% 57% 37% 31%
No Opinion 33% 29% 37% 34% 34% 33% 29% 37% 25% 38%
Voter Opinion of the Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal by Voter Subgroup
All
Voters
CD
01
CD
02
CD
03
CD
04
30K
Less
31K
70K
71K
100K
101K
More
Age
65+
Total Favor 19% 22% 17% 22% 16% 29% 26% 15% 19% 16%
Total Oppose 48% 45% 50% 48% 48% 42% 49% 52% 50% 50%
No Opinion 33% 33% 33% 30% 36% 29% 25% 33% 31% 34%
Voter Opinion of the Healthy Utah Expansion Proposal
The Healthy Utah Expansion Proposal question was presented to respondents with
the following information.
“One proposal is referred to as The Healthy Utah proposal. This proposal would
expand Utah’s Medicaid program by using Medicaid funding to subsidize the
purchase of private health insurance for individuals who do not currently qualify for
Medicaid and make less than 138 percent of the federal poverty level, as required
by Obamacare. It would subsidize health insurance premiums for more than
160,000 individuals whose insurance would cover similar health services as
traditional Medicaid. The actual number of qualifying individuals may be
significantly higher based on unexpectedly high enrollment in other states that have
expanded Medicaid.v”
“Some of these individuals currently have private insurance, while others do not. It
is estimated that just over 63 percent of working age adults in this group are single,
and 61 percent of them are without children.vi By 2021, this plan is estimated to
cost $40 million in state tax dollars, with the remaining cost of approximately $360
million paid for with funding from the federal government.vii If federal funding were
cut in the future, Utah lawmakers would have to decide whether to pay more state
tax dollars to continue insurance subsidies or cut Medicaid health benefits.”
“After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor,
somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about
this proposal?”
5. Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary
September 15th, 2014
Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585
5
Voter Opinion of the Healthy Utah Proposal by Voter Subgroup*
All
Voters
Men
Wom
All
Rep
Cons.
Rep
Mod
Rep
All
Ind
Cons.
Ind
Mod
Ind
All
Dem
Total Favor 32% 28% 36% 28% 24% 37% 36% 30% 43% 39%
Total Oppose 40% 46% 34% 45% 49% 38% 36% 42% 31% 30%
No Opinion 28% 26% 30% 27% 27% 25% 28% 28% 26% 31%
Voter Opinion of the Healthy Utah Proposal by Voter Subgroup*
All
Voters
CD
01
CD
02
CD
03
CD
04
30K
Less
31K
70K
71K
100K
101K
More
Age
65+
Total Favor 32% 31% 30% 37% 31% 43% 38% 21% 34% 24%
Total Oppose 40% 40% 47% 34% 38% 42% 35% 51% 38% 45%
No Opinion 28% 29% 23% 29% 31% 15% 28% 29% 28% 31%
Voter Opinion of the “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” Proposal
The “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” proposal question was presented to
respondents with the following information.
“One proposal is to not expand Medicaid right now. This proposal would
temporarily leave Utah’s Medicaid program as it is today while lawmakers seek to
create new, targeted policies or programs that provide health coverage or services
to the most vulnerable individuals who do not currently qualify for Medicaid, such
as the medically frail, or individuals whose income is too high to qualify for
Medicaid, but is significantly lower than the federal poverty line. These policies or
programs would be funded by state tax dollars and may involve some federal
funding. Until the new policies or programs are determined, it is unknown how
many individuals would qualify for these benefits or services or how much they
would cost. When Obamacare allows states to apply for greater Medicaid flexibility
in 2017, or if the federal government offers new Medicaid flexibility provisions,
such as Medicaid block grants to states, the state would then seek to significantly
reform its Medicaid program in a way that best meets the needs of Utah residents.”
“After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor,
somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about
this proposal?”
Voter Opinion of the Do Not Expand Medicaid Now Proposal by Voter Subgroup*
All
Voters
Men
Wom
All
Rep
Cons.
Rep
Mod
Rep
All
Ind
Cons.
Ind
Mod
Ind
All
Dem
Total Favor 45% 46% 43% 50% 51% 47% 42% 47% 46% 24%
Total Oppose 26% 32% 21% 19% 17% 24% 30% 22% 29% 42%
No Opinion 29% 22% 36% 31% 32% 29% 28% 31% 25% 34%
6. Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary
September 15th, 2014
Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585
6
Voter Opinion of the Do Not Expand Medicaid Now Proposal by Voter Subgroup*
All
Voters
CD
01
CD
02
CD
03
CD
04
30K
Less
31K
70K
71K
100K
101K
More
Age
65+
Total Favor 45% 40% 45% 44% 49% 38% 49% 46% 46% 36%
Total Oppose 26% 30% 28% 31% 13% 29% 23% 32% 25% 27%
No Opinion 29% 30% 27% 25% 38% 33% 28% 22% 29% 37%
Voter Opinion of Best Proposal That Should Be Implemented
After hearing information about the four different proposals, respondents were
asked which one they thought was the best and should be implemented.
Voter Opinion of Best Proposal That Should Be Implemented by Voter Subgroup*
All
Voters
Men
Wom
All
Rep
Cons.
Rep
Mod
Rep
All
Ind
Cons.
Ind
Mod
Ind
All
Dem
Don’t Expand 31% 34% 29% 42% 47% 30% 25% 31% 22% 11%
Unsure/DK 20% 13% 25% 19% 20% 18% 22% 26% 19% 17%
Healthy Utah 17% 14% 19% 17% 13% 26% 15% 16% 13% 19%
Trad. Med. 15% 17% 14% 7% 6% 9% 19% 7% 29% 41%
Partial Med. 10% 11% 9% 10% 8% 13% 10% 8% 13% 8%
Don’t Like Any 7% 11% 4% 5% 6% 4% 9% 12% 4% 4%
Voter Opinion of Best Proposal That Should Be Implemented by Voter Subgroup*
All
Voters
CD
01
CD
02
CD
03
CD
04
30K
Less
31K
70K
71K
100K
101K
More
Age
65+
Don’t Expand 31% 30% 32% 30% 33% 25% 30% 36% 34% 28%
Unsure/DK 20% 13% 22% 21% 25% 22% 22% 16% 13% 26%
Healthy Utah 17% 15% 14% 21% 17% 17% 18% 17% 18% 10%
Trad. Med. 15% 16% 21% 13% 12% 11% 16% 19% 19% 13%
Partial Med. 10% 15% 5% 11% 6% 15% 9% 6% 12% 9%
Don’t Like Any 7% 11% 6% 4% 7% 10% 5% 6% 4% 14%
Conclusion
The focus of this research project was to inform Utah registered voters about the
facts of four different Medicaid expansion proposals and measure their opinion of
each proposal. Great care was taken when researching the facts presented about
each proposal, including estimated costs and individuals covered by each
proposal, so respondents could provide their opinions based on that information.
What we find from the survey data is that Utah voters do not favor any one
proposal overwhelmingly. Combined, the Healthy Utah, Traditional and Partial
Medicaid expansion plans are supported by 42% of Utah voters. The “Don’t
Expand Now” and voters that are unsure about any proposal combined is 51% of
all registered voters. If we add the 7% of voters that don’t like any of the proposals
to the “Don’t Expand Now”/unsure group of voters, 58% of registered voters prefer
not to implement any of the other three plans.
7. Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary
September 15th, 2014
Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585
7
Survey Commissioned By
This survey was commissioned by Sutherland Institute.
Survey Methodology
This survey was conducted by live dialing to a landline and cell phone sample. The
sample was randomly drawn from a Utah voter file. The results were weighted
based upon voting registration numbers, which are included in this document. Any
questions regarding the methodology of this survey should be directed to David
Flaherty of Magellan Strategies at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com or 303-861-
8585.
Utah Voter Registration Demographics
The following are demographics compiled from a statewide voter file obtained
from the Utah Lt. Governor’s office.
Gender
Female – 54%
Male – 46%
Party
Republican, 44%
Unaffiliated and Other Party, 44%
Democrat, 10%
Age Range
18 to 29, 18%
30 to 44, 31%
45 to 54, 16%
55 to 64, 16%
65+, 19%
Region
CD-01, 26%
CD-02, 25%
CD-03, 26%
CD-04, 23%
Hispanic Origin Quotas
The Utah voter file does not indicate the Hispanic origin or race of each individual
voter. To determine a reliable estimate of the Hispanic percentage of registered
voters Magellan Strategies used data from the Pew Research Hispanic Trends
Project. Pew Research estimated that 123,000 Hispanic individuals, or 7% of
8. Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary
September 15th, 2014
Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585
8
registered voters were eligible to vote in the 2012 general election. To review their
methodology please visit their website at http://ow.ly/BqeOb.
About Magellan Strategies
Magellan Strategies is a full-service survey research firm offering quantitative,
qualitative, and predictive data modeling services to political candidates,
campaigns and policy organizations across the country.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i!For!examples,!see!Gosia!Wozniacka,!“Medicaid!enrollees!strain!oregon,”!Associated*Press,!
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/apnewsbreakAmedicaidAenrolleesAstrainAoregon;!and!Karen!Bouffard,!
“Enrollment!in!Michigan!Medicaid!expansion!exceeds!322K,”!The*Detroit*News,!
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140711/BIZ/307110028;!and!Jennifer!Haberkorn,!
“Enrollment!in!Medicaid,!children’s!health!program!grows!by!3!million,”!Politico,!
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/medicaidAchipAenrollmentAgrowthA105383.html.!
!
ii!Norman!J.!Waitzman!et.!al,!“Who!would!be!newly!eligible!for!coverage!under!the!Healthy!Utah!Plan,!
or!Full!Medicaid!Expansion?,”!presentation!to!the!Utah!Legislature’s!Health!Reform!Task!Force,!
http://le.utah.gov/interim/2014/pdf/00003826.pdf.!
!
iii!Ibid.*
!
iv!Estimate!based!on!moving!from!a!90/10!federal!match!rate!to!a!70/30!federal!match!rate.!
!
v!See!footnote!1.!
!
vi!See!footnote!2.!
!
vii!For!state!tax!dollar!figure,!see!“Healthy!Utah!Plan!Overview,”!Utah!Department!of!Health,!
http://le.utah.gov/interim/2014/pdf/00003836.pdf.!Federal!funding!estimate!was!calculated!based!
on!a!90/10!federal!match!rate.!
9. !!!!!
Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results
Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results for a 500n live
landline and cell phone survey of registered voters in the state of Utah. The
interviews were conducted September 8th and 9th, 2014. This survey has a
margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval. The
survey results were slightly weighted based upon the voter registration
demographics of Utah.
T1. Are you male or female?
Female .................................................................... 54%
Male ....................................................................... 46%
T2. Are you registered to vote in the state of Utah as a Republican, a Democrat, an
independent voter, with some other party, or are you not registered to vote?
Republican .............................................................. 44%
Democrat ................................................................ 10%
Independent ............................................................ 42%
Some other party ....................................................... 4%
Thinking now about the issue of Medicaid expansion in Utah…
T3. How interested would you say you are in the debate surrounding expansion of
Medicaid in Utah? Would you say that you are extremely interested, very interested,
somewhat interested or not interested at all?
Extremely interested ................................................ 11%
Very interested ........................................................ 20%
Somewhat interested ............................................... 49%
Not interested at all ................................................. 18%
Don’t know or refused .............................................. 2%
10. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
2
T4. How much information have you seen, read or heard about the expansion of
Medicaid in Utah? Would you say have seen, read or heard a lot of information, some
information, a little bit of information or no information at all?
A lot of information ................................................. 10%
Some information .................................................... 31%
A little bit of information ......................................... 35%
No information at all ............................................... 24%
Don’t know or refused .............................................. 0%
As you may know, a provision of the Affordable Care Act, also known as “Obamacare,”
required states to expand Medicaid to anyone making less than 138 percent of the federal
poverty level, which in 2014 is $23,850 dollars for a family of four. But in a 2010 ruling,
the U.S. Supreme Court said that the Medicaid expansion provision of “Obamacare”
could not be forced on states, and must be an “opt-in” program.
Because Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion provision is optional for states, Governor
Herbert and the state legislature are currently evaluating several different Medicaid
expansion proposals, including:
A “Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal”,
An alternative Medicaid expansion proposal called the “Healthy Utah Proposal”,
A “Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal”,
And finally a proposal to not expand Medicaid at all for now.
I am now going to read to you some information about each proposal. After hearing the
information about each plan I would like you to tell me if you strongly favor, somewhat
favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose that plan. If you are undecided or unsure
there is an option for that as well. Let’s get started.
T5. One proposal is referred to as the TRADITIONAL MEDICAID EXPANSION
PROPOSAL. This proposal would expand Utah’s traditional Medicaid program to
individuals at 138 percent of the federal poverty level as required by Obamacare. It
would allow more than 160,000 individuals in Utah to obtain Medicaid coverage,
although the actual number of qualifying individuals may be significantly higher, based on
unexpectedly high enrollment in other states that have expanded Medicaid. Some of the
individuals that would be covered under this proposal currently have private health
insurance, while others do not. It is estimated that just over 63 percent of working age
adults in this group are single, and 61 percent do not have children. By 2021, this plan is
estimated to cost $60 million in state tax dollars, with the remaining cost of $640 million
paid for with funding from the federal government. If federal funding were cut in the
future, Utah lawmakers would have to decide whether to pay more state tax dollars to
continue health coverage or cut Medicaid health benefits.
11. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
3
After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor,
somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this
proposal?
Total Favor .............................................................. 21%
Total Oppose .......................................................... 49%
Unsure or don’t know ............................................ 30%
Refused ..................................................................... 0%
Strongly favor ............................................................ 7%
Somewhat favor ..................................................... 14%
Strongly oppose ...................................................... 25%
Somewhat oppose ................................................... 24%
T6. One proposal is referred to as the PARTIAL MEDICAID EXPANSION proposal. This
proposal would subsidize private health coverage for anyone making less than 100
percent of the federal poverty level, which is estimated to be at least 70,000
individuals. It is estimated that 66 percent of the working age adults in this group are
single, and 66 percent do not have children. By 2021, this plan is estimated to cost $25
million in state tax dollars if the federal government approves a more generous federal
funding option for this proposal, with the remaining cost of $275 million paid for with
funding from the federal government. If the federal government turns down the more
generous federal funding option, approximately $75 million in state tax dollars would be
required and federal funding would go down to approximately $225 million. In either
case, if federal funding were cut in the future, Utah lawmakers would have to decide
whether to pay more state tax dollars to continue health coverage or cut Medicaid health
benefits.
After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor,
somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this
proposal?
Total Favor .............................................................. 19%
Total Oppose .......................................................... 48%
Unsure or don’t know ............................................ 33%
Refused ..................................................................... 0%
Strongly favor ............................................................ 2%
Somewhat favor ..................................................... 17%
Strongly oppose ...................................................... 23%
Somewhat oppose ................................................... 25%
12. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
4
T7. One proposal is referred to as THE HEALTHY UTAH proposal. This proposal would
expand Utah’s Medicaid program by using Medicaid funding to subsidize the purchase of
private health insurance for individuals who do not currently qualify for Medicaid and
make less than 138 percent of the federal poverty level, as required by Obamacare. It
would subsidize health insurance premiums for more than 160,000 individuals whose
insurance would cover similar health services as traditional Medicaid. The actual number
of qualifying individuals may be significantly higher based on unexpectedly high
enrollment in other states that have expanded Medicaid.
Some of these individuals currently have private insurance, while others do not. It is
estimated that just over 63 percent of working age adults in this group are single, and 61
percent of them are without children. By 2021, this plan is estimated to cost $40 million
in state tax dollars, with the remaining cost of approximately $360 million paid for with
funding from the federal government. If federal funding were cut in the future, Utah
lawmakers would have to decide whether to pay more state tax dollars to continue
insurance subsidies or cut Medicaid health benefits.
After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor,
somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this
proposal?
Total Favor .............................................................. 32%
Total Oppose .......................................................... 40%
Unsure or don’t know ............................................ 28%
Refused ..................................................................... 0%
Strongly favor ............................................................ 5%
Somewhat favor ..................................................... 27%
Strongly oppose ...................................................... 18%
Somewhat oppose ................................................... 22%
T8. One proposal is to NOT EXPAND MEDICAID RIGHT NOW. This proposal would
temporarily leave Utah’s Medicaid program as it is today while lawmakers seek to create
new, targeted policies or programs that provide health coverage or services to the most
vulnerable individuals who do not currently qualify for Medicaid, such as the medically
frail, or individuals whose income is too high to qualify for Medicaid, but is significantly
lower than the federal poverty line. These policies or programs would be funded by state
tax dollars and may involve some federal funding. Until the new policies or programs are
determined, it is unknown how many individuals would qualify for these benefits or
services or how much they would cost. When Obamacare allows states to apply for
greater Medicaid flexibility in 2017, or if the federal government offers new Medicaid
flexibility provisions, such as Medicaid block grants to states, the state would then seek to
13. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
5
significantly reform its Medicaid program in a way that best meets the needs of Utah
residents.
After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor,
somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this
proposal?
Total Favor .............................................................. 45%
Total Oppose .......................................................... 26%
Unsure or don’t know ............................................ 29%
Refused ..................................................................... 0%
Strongly favor .......................................................... 13%
Somewhat favor ..................................................... 32%
Strongly oppose ...................................................... 16%
Somewhat oppose ................................................... 10%
T9. Now that you have heard some information about the different proposals and
options, which one, if any, do you think is the best proposal or option that should be
implemented?
Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now proposal ........ 31%
Healthy Utah proposal ........................................... 17%
Traditional Medicaid Expansion proposal ................ 15%
Partial Medicaid Expansion proposal ....................... 10%
Don’t like any of the proposals ................................. 7%
Unsure or don’t know ............................................. 20%
Refused ..................................................................... 0%
T10. Generally speaking, are you more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for
public office that supports expanding Medicaid in Utah?
More likely .............................................................. 34%
Less likely ............................................................... 42%
Unsure or no opinion .............................................. 24%
Refused ..................................................................... 0%
14. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
6
T11. Among the following options, which best describes how you pay for your most of
your own healthcare expenses?
Employer provided healthcare plan ......................... 58%
Pay own healthcare not selected from exchange ..... 15%
Medicare, the federal program for seniors ................. 9%
Pay own healthcare selected from exchange ............. 5%
Uninsured and no healthcare plan ........................... 4%
Medicaid, the state program for the poor ................... 1%
Some other option ..................................................... 7%
Refused .................................................................... 1%
T12. On most political issues, do you consider yourself to be conservative, moderate or
liberal?
Conservative ........................................................... 49%
Moderate ................................................................ 38%
Liberal ..................................................................... 10%
Unsure or refused ..................................................... 3%
And now I have a few questions for statistical purposes only…
T13. Is there anyone currently living in your household that is age 18 or younger?
Yes .......................................................................... 44%
No .......................................................................... 56%
Don’t know or refused ............................................. 0%
T14. Are you married, widowed, separated, divorced, single and never been married, or
unmarried and living with a partner?
Married ................................................................... 77%
Single and have never been married ....................... 15%
Widowed .................................................................. 3%
Divorced ................................................................... 3%
Unmarried and living with a partner ......................... 1%
Separated .................................................................. 1%
No opinion ............................................................... 0%
15. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
7
T15. What is the highest level of education that you have completed?
High school graduate or less ................................... 10%
Associate or technical degree .................................. 13%
Completed some college ......................................... 27%
Completed Bachelor’s 4-year college degree ........... 30%
Completed some graduate school ............................. 5%
Completed graduate degree .................................... 15%
Unsure or refused ...................................................... 0%
T16. Which of the following age groups applies to you? Are you between the ages of 18
and 29, 30 and 44, 45 and 54, 55 and 64, or are you 65 or older?
18-29 ...................................................................... 18%
30-44 ...................................................................... 31%
45-54 ...................................................................... 16%
55-64 ...................................................................... 16%
65+ ......................................................................... 19%
Refused ..................................................................... 0%
T17. For statistical purposes only is your ethnicity Hispanic or non-Hispanic?
Hispanic ................................................................... 7%
Non-Hispanic ......................................................... 92%
Don’t know or refused .............................................. 1%
T18. For statistical purposes only what is your race? Are you white, black or African
American, Asian, Pacific Islander or do you belong to some other racial group?
White ...................................................................... 94%
Black or African American ........................................ 0%
Asian ......................................................................... 0%
Pacific Islander .......................................................... 0%
Some other group ...................................................... 5%
Refused ..................................................................... 1%
16. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
8
T19. Which of the following best describes your current employment status?
Employed full time .................................................. 43%
Employed part time ................................................. 16%
Unemployed or temporarily out of work ................... 4%
Retired .................................................................... 18%
Homemaker ............................................................ 13%
Student ...................................................................... 5%
Unsure or refused ...................................................... 1%
T20. Again for statistical purposes only, what was the total income of everyone in your
household last year before taxes?
$20,000 or less ......................................................... 7%
$21,000 to $30,000 .................................................. 6%
$31,000 to $50,000 ................................................ 13%
$51,000 to $70,000 ................................................ 17%
$71,000 to $100,000 .............................................. 20%
$101,000 to $125,000 ............................................ 12%
$126,000 or more ................................................... 13%
Unsure or refused .................................................... 12%
Survey Methodology
This live interview telephone survey was conducted using both landline and cell phone
sample. The sample used for this survey was randomly drawn from a statewide Utah
voter file. The survey response data was weighted based upon the voter registration
demographics of Utah. The interviews were conducted on September 8th and 9th, 2014.
Three attempts were made to interview each household in the sample. This survey has a
margin of error of 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval. Any questions regarding
the survey methodology should be directed to David Flaherty, at 303-861-8585 or
dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com.
Utah Voter Registration Demographics
The following are demographics compiled from a statewide voter file from the Utah Lt.
Governor’s office.
Gender
Female – 54%
Male – 46%
17. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
9
Party
Republican, 44%
Unaffiliated and Other Party, 44%
Democrat, 10%
Age Range
18 to 29, 18%
30 to 44, 31%
45 to 54, 16%
55 to 64, 16%
65+, 19%
Region
CD-01, 26%
CD-02, 25%
CD-03, 26%
CD-04, 23%
Hispanic Origin Quotas
The Utah voter file does not indicate the Hispanic origin or race of each individual voter.
To determine a reliable estimate of the Hispanic percentage of registered voters we used
data from the Pew Research Hispanic Trends Project. Their data estimated that 123,000
Hispanic individuals, or 7% of registered voters were eligible to vote in the 2012 general
election. To review their methodology please visit their website at http://ow.ly/BqeOb.