"Climate Change and Human Health in Montana" presented by Dr. Cathy Whitlock

1. CLIMATE CHANGE &
HUMAN HEALTH IN MONTANA
(C2H2)
Cathy Whitlock
Professor of Earth Sciences
Montana State University
whitlock@montana.edu
https://yellowstonevalleywoman.com

2. HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT
OUR HEALTH?
photo credit: Scott Bischke
Credit: Patrick Record/NEWZULU

3. From US Global Change Research Program “Impacts of Climate
Change on Human Health in the United States (2016)”

4. From US Global Change
Research Program
“Impacts of Climate
Change on Human
Health in the United
States (2016)”

5. From US Global Change
Research Program
“Impacts of Climate
Change on Human
Health in the United
States (2016)”
Table 1: Current estimates and future trends in chronic health conditions that interact
with the health risks associated with climate change.
Health
Conditions
Current Estimates Future Trends Possible Influences of Climate
Change
Alzheimer's
Disease
Approximately 5 million Americans
over 65 had Alzheimer's disease in
2013.33
Prevalence of Alzheimer’s is expected to
triple to 13.8 million by 2050.33
Persons with cognitive impairments
are vulnerable to extreme weather
events that require evacuation or
other emergency responses.
Asthma
Average asthma prevalence in the U.S.
was higher in children (9% in 2014)29
than in adults
(7% in 2013).34 Since the 1980s, asthma
prevalence increased, but rates of asthma
deaths and hospital admissions
declined.35, 36
Stable incidence and increasing
prevalence of asthma is projected in the
U.S. in coming decades.
Asthma is exacerbated by changes in
pollen season and allergenicity and in
exposures to air pollutants affected
by changes in temperature, humidity,
and wind.28
Chronic Obstructive
Pulmonary Disease (COPD)
In 2012, approximately 6.3% of adults
had COPD. Deaths from chronic lung
diseases increased by 50% from 1980 to
2010.37, 38
Chronic respiratory diseases are the third
leading cause of death and are expected
to become some of the most costly
illnesses in coming decades.37
COPD patients are more sensitive
than the general population to
changes in ambient air quality
associated with climate change.
Diabetes
In 2012, approximately 9% of the total
U.S. population had diabetes.
Approximately 18,400people younger
than age 20 were newly diagnosed with
type 1 diabetes in 2008–2009; an
additional 5,000 werediagnosed with
type 2.39
New diabetes cases are projected to
increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in
2008 to
about 15 per 1,000 in 2050. If
recent increases continue,
prevalence is projected to
increase to 33% of Americans by 2050.40
Diabetes increases sensitivity to heat
stress; medication and dietary needs
may increase vulnerability during and
after extreme weather events.
Cardiovascular
Disease
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the
leading cause of death in the U.S.41
By 2030, approximately 41% of the U.S.
population is projected to have some
form of CVD.42
Cardiovascular disease increases
sensitivity to heat stress.
Mental Illness
Depression is one of the most common
types of mentalillness, with
approximately 7% of adults reporting a
major episode in the past year. Lifetime
prevalence is approximately twice as
high
for women as for men.43 Lifetime
prevalence is more than 15% for anxiety
disorders and nearly 4% for bipolar
disorder.44
By 2050, the total number of
U.S. adults with depressive disorder is
projected to increase by 35%, from 33.9
million to 45.8 million, with those over
age 65 having a 117% increase.43
Mental illness may impair responses
to extreme events; certain
medications increase sensitivity to
heat stress.
Obesity
In 2009–2010, approximately 35% of
American adults were obese.31 In 2012,
approximately 32% of youth (aged 2–
19) were overweight or obese.45, 46
By 2030, 51% of the U.S. population
is expected to be obese. Projections
suggest a 33% increase in obesity
and a 130% increase in severe
obesity.47
Obesity increases sensitivity to high
ambient temperatures.
Disability
Approximately 18.7% of the U.S.
population has a disability. In 2010, the
percent of American adults with a
disability was approximately 16.6% for
The number of older adults with activity
limitations is expected to grow from 22
Persons with disabilities may find it hard
to respond when evacuation is required
and when there is no available means of
transportation or easy exit from

6. http://montanaclimate.org
MONTANA CLIMATE ASSESSMENT

7. MONTANA TEMPERATURES
Current average annual
temperature is 45⁰F.Increased by
0.42°F per decade
since 1950. Overall
increase of 2.7°F.
U.S. annual
average has
increased by
0.26oF per decade
since 1950.

8. MONTANA PRECIPITATION
Average annual
precipitation is 18.7 inches.
Eastern MT: increased by
1.3 to 2.0 inches in spring
Western MT: decreased by
0.9 inch in winter

9. ANNUAL TEMPERATURES BY
MID-CENTURY
4.5°F increase 6°F increase
(minimum: 2.7°F, maximum: 6.1°F,
model agreement: 100%)
(minimum: 4.0°F, maximum: 8.2°F,
model agreement: 100%)
RCP 4.5 (2040-2060) RCP 8.5 (2040-2060)

10. MONTHLY TEMPERATURES
Greater warming in:
• Winter: 4 to 5°F
• Summer: 5 to 5.5°F
• Winter: 5 to 7°F
• Summer: 6 to 7.5°F
(100% model agreement)
RCP 4.5 (2040-2060)
RCP 8.5 (2040-2060)

11. ANNUAL PRECIPITATION
Spatially variable
From 1.3 to 0.8 more inches
Spatially variable
From 1.6 to 1.1 more inches
Moderately high model agreement: 85%
RCP 4.5 (2040-2060) RCP 8.5 (2040-2060)

12. MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Increases in winter,
spring, and fall
(>85% model
agreement)
Decreases in summer
(65% model agreement)
RCP 4.5 (2040-2060)
RCP 8.5 (2040-2060)

13. HOW IS MONTANA’S CLIMATE CHANGING?
Between 1950-2015:
• Average temperatures have risen 2-3°F. Winter and springs
have warmed the most.
• Montana’s growing seasons are 12 days longer.
• No changes in annual or seasonal precipitation.
Future:
• Additional warming of 4-6°F by 2050, 9.8°F by 2100.
• Precipitation will increase slightly in winter, spring and fall,
and decrease in summer.

14. WATER FUTURES

15. SNOW TO RAIN
Alder & Hostetler, USGS

16. WATER SUPPLY
Photo credit: Scott Lameraux

17. STREAMFLOW PROJECTIONS – CLARK FORK
-100
0
100
J F M A M J J A S O N D
%ChangeinRunoff
Projected
increase in
flow, 15-25
days earlier
Projected
decrease in flow
Snowmelt-
dominated
rivers in the
western &
north-central
Montana

19. DROUGHT

20. Increased days >90°F
(up to 35 additional days)
RCP 4.5 (2040-2060)
RCP 8.5 (2040-2060)
RISING TEMPERATURES EXACERBATE DROUGHT

21. www.ucsusa.org/
westernwildfires
2017 US:
71,500 fires
10 million acres
2018 CA:
8527 fires
1.89 million acres

22. From Abatzoglou & Williams, PNAS 2016
ANTHROPOGENIC WARMING:
55% AREA BURNED

23. www.ucsusa.org/
westernwildfires

24. www.ucsusa.org/
westernwildfires
NAS
“Climate
Stabilization
Targets”
(2011)

25. MCA “ROAD SHOW”

26. • Water & water storage
• Floods & droughts
• Wildfire response, before & after
• Livestock & crop decisions
• Economic implications
• Health considerations
MCA CONVERSATIONS

27. LIVING WITH CHANGE

28. Proportion of wildfire
in each state
burned in the WUI
Pre-fire suppression Today
Westerling 2016 RoyalSocPhilTransB
LIVING WITH WILDFIRES

29. LIVING WITH EXTREMES
credit: Billing Gazette
Billings Gazette
MT: $378 million in federal & state funds
1.26 million acres burned

30. LIVING WITH COMPLEXITY

31. • Shortened winter season
– Less stable snow conditions, more rain-on-snow events
– Greater chance of flooding
– Shoulder seasons are uncertain
LIVING WITH UNCERTAINTY

32. • Longer summer season
– More visitors
– More wildlife-human interactions
– More focus on aquatic activities
• High water temperatures & low flows
– Native vs non-natives fish
– Fish diseases (e.g., whitefish kill)
– Angling and boating restrictions

33. LIVING WITH HEALTH RISKS

34. C2H2 ASSESSMENT
Best-available information can help guide:
• Needs & actions for state & public health
agencies, clinics, physicians, practitioners
• County/community resilience and planning
efforts
• Monitoring needs
• Public messaging
• Policy-change recommendations