COIN went straight up: 58% in 8 days on elevated volume. This was a perfect setup for a reversal.

1. Gap up trend
reversal
Catalyst: Technical catalyst
Setup: Gap up trend reversal
Trades: HTF trend PB
Ticker: COIN
Date: 18-1-23

2. Bigger picture: ARKK and VIX
US CORE PPI: actual 5.5%,
forecast: 5.6% (last: 6.2%). It
measures the change in selling
prices in goods and services sold
by producers. It’s thought to be a
leading indicator for consumer
inflation.
ARKK: ARKK gapped up and
pushed higher. Then it couldn’t
maintain above the OR high,
broke down VWAP and trended
the whole day.
VIX level : 20
VIX bounced and closed above
20. Ideal scenario for market
plays.

3. Gameplan
Potential to go lower
-Once price fails below yday’s key
levels and holds, this is significant for
this reversal setup.
-The market has had a strong run last
1.5-2 weeks, but overall, we’re still in
a bear market.
-ARKK was very weak intraday which
strengthens the thesis.
-The setup is very strong and has
potential. This setup provides plenty
of downside potential. The fact that
we have elevated volume makes it
even stronger.
-Price is already down -1.5ATR as we
pullback.
Potential to go higher/lower COIN
Holding above/below key level? Yes
Strong/weak market (bigger
picture)? Medium
Strong/ weak market intraday? Yes
Strong/weak fundamental
catalyst? No
Strong/weak setup? Yes
Elevated RVOL? Yes
Room to trend on daily? Yes
Room to trend intraday? Medium
Trade2hold
There’s a strong setup with elevated
volume and a weak intraday market.
This is a trade2hold.I have to prior
examples. On with medium strength
(22,5% push in 4 days) and one with
extreme strength (73% in 3 days). The
moved 1.5 and 3 ATR, respectively.
This setup is in between those Since
we’re already up 1,5ATR I would like
to hold my core to 1,75-2ATR. I could
potentially hold into the close if ARKK
remains weak.

4. Catalyst &
Fundamentals
Catalyst: Technical: short term overextended.
Setup: Gap up reversal.
Float: 175 million.
Institutional Ownership: 59,3%
Short %: 23,8%.
ATR: 4,03.
Average Daily volume (50 day): 16,4 million.
Daily volume: 24,8 million.
Gap%: 0,2%
RVOL: 2,5

5. Gap up Reversal
Extreme strength:
-Up 58% in 8 days.
-Elevated volume.
- Over 5 ATR’s.
-8 days with all new
highs and higher lows.

6. Technical Analysis: Similar setups

7. Technical
Analysis:
HTF Trend PB
15m is holding below 9EMA.
5m is holding below 20EMA.
Pullback visible on multiple time
frames: 1m, 5m, 15m.
Bounce of intraday key level:
53,50
Shallow volume during PB.

8. What could I have done
better?
• From now on I want to go through this fixed 5 checklists process in
order to trade playbook setups with edge:
1) Premarket gameplan: go through overall market checklist. Check
breadth, ETF’s, economic news stock specific news and prepare pre
watchlist.
2) Prioritize and deep dive. Pick best 1-3 stocks and prepare in
detail. This checklist can also be done intraday if necessary.
3) Analyze intraday price action, are there good odds of going
higher/lower.
4) Structuring trade. Is this a trade 2hold. If yes, what should be
the core target be and why?
5) Trade pattern. Quickly go through playbook variables of this
specific trade pattern.