This is a playbook trade I made on MRNA. MRNA is a stock that was very strong in the last two months and had a new catalyst. They had positive data on their cancer vaccince. It is a continuation play. It was my first time in this setup a trading this specific trade. I plenty of things right, but luckily there is also a lot of room for improvement. Cheers.

1. D3 Catalyst
Ticker: MRNA
Date: 15-12-22

2. Stock selection & Intraday Fundamentals
Catalyst:
MRNA had a positive results on their
cancer vaccine.
The gap down could provide
institutions to buy at a good price yet
again. They don’t have to chase.
Setup: D3 catalyst
Trade: back through VWAP
Fundamentals
Float: 346 million.
IO%: 66%.
Short float: 5%
ATR: 12,38
Gap: -0,5%
Sector: Biotechnology
Moderna Inc. is a clinical stage biotechnology company pioneering
messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for patients. The company's
product pipeline which is in clinical stage consists of mRNA-1647 for
Cytomegalovirus Infectious Disease, mRNA-4157 for Solid tumors, mRNA-
2416 for lymphoma and mRNA- 2752 for Relapsed/Refractory solid tumors
malignancies. Moderna Inc. is based in Cambridge, United States.

3. Bigger picture
Tuesday, we had a positive CPI print
just like last month, but the market
reacted negatively. This could mean
that the market is now more focused
on a potential recession, or we are
perhaps in a market where ‘good’
news now isn’t bullish anymore but
normal.
Powel increased the rates by 0.50bps
and the market reacted negatively.
But the market was more reacting to
the sentiment of the speech, and not
on the rate hike itself.
Yesterday we broke through the last
week lows.

4. Bigger picture : IBB showing relative strength.
The biotechnology index is showing some relative
strength last months compared to the SPY and
QQQ.
Also, it is holding up quite well last three days
when everything else was tanking. MRNA might
have played a part in this since this is one of the
biggest holdings of this ETF.

5. Bigger picture : HTF Breakout
From the October lows MRNA
made a 60% move.
Price consolidates and on D1
price breaks out of the Higher
Time Frame (HTF) resistance
level. Price closes below another
HTF level. But on the open of D2
this level breaks and price trends
higher.
I like to see a strong daily chart
when I am trading to the long
side.

6. D3 Back
through
VWAP – Trade
Strategy
Stock selection
-Stock in play with a significant (technical) catalyst, earnings report or strong theme.
-Elevated RVOL above 3.
-Others/ x-factors
-Hot sector, look for other stocks in same sector to receive upgrades, strong premarket
movement.
-Strong market.
-High short interest.
-Earnings beat & guidance.
Overall thought process
I have identified an important level based on price action the day(s) before. In the open price
fails to hold this level and breaks down on significant volume. After we make a lower high into
VWAP I expect the stock to fail. But then price reclaims support on high volume and hold
above it for 3m, which is enough in the open. Price holds this level, and this give me conviction
we can go higher.
Expectation D3
Initially I wasn’t bullish. The catalyst is good, but I would have more conviction if this was D1 or
D2. I don’t expect D3 to be as strong as D1 or D2. But I do think that if we can hold support
after the open, we might move higher. This support level was very important to me, below this
was a no trade zone.

7. Back through VWAP– Trade Management
Move2move trade & expectation
-A momentum trade that can been seen on the 3m & 5m chart.
-I want to capture this momentum. My price target could be a measured move, a specific level or a decrease in
momentum. I am not going to turn this into pullbacks.
-Price trends on volume and holds the 5m 9EMA, when it closes below this level, the move is done. We might pull
back/consolidate and trader higher, but this is not relevant. This is my main reason2sell.
Risk management
Entry: Hold above support and VWAP or at least 3m showing a clean PB/consolidation on lower volume.
Risk: Below support
Flat: Close below 1m 20 EMA.
.

8. Technical Analysis: Significant support level
208,50 key level as the high
of D1.
On D2 it held this level in the
afternoon and closed above
it.
In the premarket it also
respected this level.
I would rate this an 8/10
level of importance. Below
this level was a no trade
zone for me!

9. Technical Analysis : The Open
Back through VWAP variables
-Fail below support on selling volume.
-Price makes a lower high and consolidates
instead of going lower.
-Reclaim of support and VWAP on volume.
-Clean PB/consolidation above support/VWAP.
What also stands out to me is the low volume
preceding the reclaim of VWAP
Price fails to test HOD and reverses on increased
selling volume back down through support.

10. Reading the tape
The spread was very large.
I did see the bid stalling out above support
before it continued higher. But the bids
weren’t as strong. Some green prints
followed but almost all the prints occurred
between the bid and ask.
The same occurred when the bids dropped 1
point quickly after my entry. Tape stalled out.
Some bids were stacking up (not large in
size), and we moved higher.
When we reached the top significant offers
appeared at 212,50. Price couldn’t hold this
level the first 4 minutes, and now it couldn’t
test it. It doesn’t seem like a big offer, but
with this price action it was.
After this price reversed and fell below
VWAP & support.

11. Trade management
Did I enter too soon/late?
I should focus on getting in as close to the support
levels as possible. I could have gotten a better price. It
have little experience reading the tape on high priced
stocks and was perhaps expecting too much from the
bids. The fact that it stalled out above support was
enough to enter. I should always aim to get in as close
to support as possible.
Did I take profit too soon/late?
In hindsight I got out too late. There are different types
of move2move trades, and for this setup I used the
wrong trade management. On a potential trend day
this strategy would have worked nicely, but the odds
for a trend were not great on D3. A logical target would
be HOD, and then getting out when sellers appear at
HOD would have been the right exit.

12. What could I have done better?
Expectations/ Trade Management/ Profit target
My expectations were not realistic. If this was a potential trend day a wider stop
would have made sense. But the context of this trade was different.
- I don’t have high conviction of a trend on D3.
- Stocks only trend after the open, the open is price discovery.
My reasons to enter the trade were solid. But my exit rules didn’t match the setup. I
should aim for a move towards HOD and not let the trade go against me, odds for a
reversal are too high in this setup. I want to see longer consolidation/PB above
support in order to break high of day.
Given the price action at the open, a profit target of 212 would have been decent. A
stop for the break of the 9EMA would also make more sense.
I have learned that there are different types of move2move trades with different
objectives. I will update my gameplan and incorporate this. I want to ask myself:
- What is the most likely scenario of this setup and trade?
- What is the objective of this move2move trade?
- Does my trade management match the objective of this trade?
Entry
When I have a solid support level I should get in this level as close as possible!