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1. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
VOLUME: 07 ISSUE: 02
MARCH 2016
Global Economic Prospects
Spillovers amidWeak Growth

3. Contents
Disclaimer:
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
VOLUME: 07 ISSUE: 02
MARCH 2016
Article of the month 02
National News
The Central Bank 05
Banking Industry 08
MTB News & Events 11
Business & Economy 16
Industry Appointments 18
International News
Business & Economy 19
Economic Forecast 23
Wells Fargo Monthly Outlook 24
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Global Economic Prospects
Spillovers amidWeak Growth

4. 02 MTBiz
ARTICLE OF THE MONTH
Global growth again fell short of expecta ons in 2015.
Growth is projected to edge up in 2016-18 but the
forecast is subject to substan al downside risks. Key
points are spillovers from a slowdown in major
emerging markets; the poten al macroeconomic
implica ons of the Trans-Pacific Partnership; and the
links between exchange rate regimes and capital
controls in emerging and developing countries.
Global growth again fell short of expecta ons in 2015,
decelera ng to 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent in 2014.
The disappoin ng performance mainly reflected a
con nued growth decelera on in emerging and
developing economies amid post-crisis lows in
commodity prices, weaker capital flows and subdued
global trade. Global growth is projected to edge up in
the coming years, but at a slower pace than envisioned
in June 2015, reaching 2.9 percent in 2016 and 3.1
percent in 2017-18. This pickup is predicated on
con nued gains in major high-income countries, a
gradual ghtening of financing condi ons, a
stabiliza on of commodity prices, and a gradual
rebalancing in China. The forecast is subject to
substan al downside risks, including a disorderly
slowdown in major emerging market economies,
financial market turmoil arising from sudden shi s in
borrowing costs amid deteriora ng fundamentals,
lingering vulnerabili es in some countries, and
heightened geopoli cal tensions. Weakening growth
and sharply lower commodity prices have narrowed the
room for policy makers to respond, especially in
commodity-expor ng countries, should risks
materialize.
Specifically, a 1 percentage point decline in growth in
BRICS (Brazil, Russian, India, China, and South Africa) is
associated with a reduc on in growth over the
following two years by 0.8 percentage points in other
emerging markets, 1.5 percentage points in fron er
markets, and 0.4 percentage points in the global
economy. Spillovers could be considerably larger if the
growth slowdown in BRICS were combined with
financial market turbulence.
On October 4, 12 Pacific Rim countries concluded
nego a ons on the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The
agreement could raise GDP in member countries by an
average of 1.1 percent by 2030. It could also increase
member countries’ trade by 11 percent by 2030.
Among emerging and developing countries, some
countries might rely on exchange rate flexibility as a
bu er, some might aim to minimize currency
fluctua ons, and some might consider measures to
limit capital flows as they seek to keep some degree of
Metals: The slump in metal prices, which reached their
lowest levels in more than 6 years in November, reflects
well-supplied markets as well as weaker growth in
major emerging markets. New mining capacity came
into opera on in several countries, especially Australia,
adding to already abundant supplies.
Agricultural commodi es: Grain and oilseed prices
dipped in 2015, mostly in response to well-supplied
markets, with the agricultural price index standing 33
percent below its early -2011 high as of November. The
stocks-to-use ra o (a measure of how well supplied
markets are) for key grains remains well above its 5-
and 10-year average levels.
Source: World Bank
Major economies
The recovery in major high-income countries gained
trac on last year. This has been increasingly driven by
stronger domes c demand, par cularly in the United
States, where employment condi ons are robust. In the
Euro Area, credit growth is picking up and
unemployment is declining. The recovery remains
fragile in Japan despite substan al policy s mulus. With
external demand nega vely a ected by a slowdown in
large emerging market economies, growth forecasts
across major high-income economies in 2016 have
been shaded down, but growth should s ll show some
improvement from 2015. The ghtening cycle of the
U.S. Federal Reserve is projected to be very gradual,
2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
DevelopingCountries 5.3 4.9 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.3
EastAsiaandPacific 7.1 6.8 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2
China 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.5
Indonesia 5.6 5.0 4.7 5.3 5.5 5.5
Thailand 2.8 0.9 2.5 2.0 2.4 2.7
EuropeandCentralAsia 3.9 2.8 2.1 3.0 3.5 3.5
Kazakhstan 6.0 4.4 0.9 1.1 3.3 3.4
Turkey 4.2 2.9 4.2 3.5 3.5 3.4
Romania 3.5 2.8 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.0
LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean 3.0 1.5 -0.7 0.1 2.3 2.5
Brazil 3.0 0.1 -3.7 -2.5 1.4 1.5
Mexico 1.4 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2
Colombia 4.9 4.6 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.5
MiddleEastandNorthAfrica 0.6 2.5 2.5 5.1 5.8 5.1
Egypt,ArabRep 2.1 2.2 4.2 3.8 4.4 4.8
Iran,IslamicRep. -1.9 4.3 1.9 5.8 6.7 6.0
Algeria 2.8 3.8 2.8 3.9 4.0 3.8
SouthAsia 6.2 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.5
India 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.8 7.9 7.9
Pakistan 4.4 4.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4
Bangladesh 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.8
Sub-SaharanAfrica 4.9 4.6 3.4 4.2 4.7 4.7
SouthAfrica 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6
Nigeria 5.4 6.3 3.3 4.6 5.3 5.3
Angola 6.8 3.9 3.0 3.3 3.8 3.8
Global Economic Prospects
Spillovers amidWeak Growth

5. 03 MTBiz
ARTICLE OF THE MONTH
United States
Robust consumer spending and investment in the
demand are weighing on exports and manufacturing
Euro Area
growth remain subdued among economies with high
Japan
China
expansion of consumer spending and services has
Renewed decline in commodity prices
Oil:
investment and drilling but was resilient for most of

6. 04 MTBiz
ARTICLE OF THE MONTH
Metals:
Grain and oilseed prices
Japan
Spillovers from G7 excluding Japan
South Asia
headwinds from an increase in interest rates in the
percentage point decline in BRICS growth is associated
spillovers present challenges that need to be addressed
B. Export growth
Percent, quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adj.
50
30
10
-10
-30
-50
-70
Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
India Pakistan Sri Lanka Bangladesh
A. Commodity Prices
Normal Index, 2010Q1=100
120
100
80
60
40
Energy
Agricultural raw materials
Metals
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
2015Q3

7. 05 MTBiz
THE CENTRAL BANK
BB issues risk management guidelines for NBFIs
Management Guidelines for
strengthen their overall
booths
their automated teller
clients of three leading
BB has awarded PSO license to SSL Wireless
NATIONAL NEWS
1st
Secured Online Payment Hub in Bangladesh
R

8. 06 MTBiz
THE CENTRAL BANK
Debnath on behalf of Bangladesh government and the
now able to operate business
BB seeks info on treasury bonds from banks
as the government has
banking
BB to train up 10,200 youths for SME sector
makers

9. 07 MTBiz

10. 08 MTBiz
BANKING INDUSTRY
Default loans decline slightly
default loans
percent to
crore in the
last quarter
restructuring
On December
Bank interest spread rises
rate on deposit was decreased more than that of
the weighted average rates on deposits came down to
Home loan interest rates down to a record low
Interest rates on home loans have plunged to the
Banks slash rates on deposits, lower lending rates for
the interest rates on
points this month
while lowered lending
BRAC Bank, Le Méridien Dhaka sign agreement
signed a
Memorandum of
special discount
NATIONAL NEWS
Weighted Average Interest Rates
(Banking Sector: 2015)
11.51%
11.57%
July Aug
Banking Export
Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: BB
6.78%
6.74%
6.66%
6.58%
6.46%
6.34%
11.44% 11.27%
11.35% 11.18%
BANKS’DEFAULTLOANS
In crores of taka
Source: BB
State Specialised Private Foreign
SEP’15
DEC’15
5,287
23,744
22,727
24,578
20,760
4,968
2,115
1,897

11. 09 MTBiz
BANKING INDUSTRY
BRAC Bank launches Women’s Forum “Tara”
Limited, formally launched the BRAC Bank Women’s
health, household, lifestyle and other realms of
City Bank signs agreement with DPDC
City Bank
P o w e r
has recently

12. A R P C
10 MTBiz
BANKING INDUSTRY
Limited with
t e c h n i c a l
Limited (SSL
S t a n d a r d
C h a r t e r e d
BRAC recently
launched two

13. 11 MTBiz

14. 12 MTBiz
MTB NEWS & EVENTS
th
A R P

15. 13 MTBiz
MTB NEWS & EVENTS

16. 14 MTBiz

17. 15 MTBiz
NON-FOOD
INFLATION
In %
FOOD
6.8 6.35 6.73 6.67 6.56 7.05
8.74
4.33
5.485.725.895.926.066.07
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
EXPORTTREND
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
SOURCE: EPB
In billions of $
2.63
2.76
2.62
2.37
2.75
3.2
3.19
BUSINESS & ECONOMY

18. 16 MTBiz
BUSINESS & ECONOMY
Sayedur Rahman
Commerce and
w o m e n
not only created
Since 1904
METROPOLITAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
& INDUSTRY, DHAKA

19. 17 MTBiz
BUSINESS & ECONOMY

20. 18 MTBiz
INDUSTRY APPOINTMENTS
Abu Asad joins Sonali Bank as DMD
Syed Abu Asad has recently joined
Sonali Bank Limited as its Deputy
Managing Director. Prior to his
new assignment, he was the
general manager of the
state-owned Rupali Bank Limited.
During his 32-year banking career,
Shahjahan new DMD of Sonali Bank
AAM Shahjahan joined state
owned Sonali Bank Limited as
Deputy Managing Director in the
city recently. Prior to this, he was
General Manager of Agrani Bank
Limited. He started his banking
career at Agrani Bank Limited as
in home and abroad.
Pijush new DMD of Janata Bank
Pijush Chandra Bhowal has joined
Janata Bank Limited as Deputy
Managing Director recently. He
started his career in Bangladesh
Manager in Khulna, Mymensingh
trainings, seminars and symposiums held at home and
abroad.
Palli Shanchay Bank gets new DMD
Feroj Khan has joined state owned
Palli Shanchay Bank as Deputy
recently. Prior to the joining, he
was GM of Bangladesh Krishi Bank.
He started his career in the same
symposiums held at home and abroad.
NRB Commercial reappoints MD
Dewan Mujibur Rahman, a senior
banker, has been re-appointed
Commercial Bank Limited. Mr.
Rahman has been performing as
opening of the bank. Mr. Rahman
started career with Agrani Bank as a
trainings and workshops. He is a life member of
Mamun made Standard Bank AMD
Standard Bank. Mr. Mamun started
his banking career by joining
Bank as Deputy Managing Director
Arif Khan elected ICMAB president
Mr. Arif Khan FCMA was elected
and Management Accountants of
elected Mr. Jamal Ahmed
Choudhury FCMA and Prof.
Vice-Presidents, Mr. Md. Abdur Rahman Khan FCMA as
Secretary and Prof. Dr. Swapan Kumar Bala FCMA as
Khan FCMA was elected Vice President of ICMAB for
NATIONAL NEWS

21. 19 MTBiz
BUSINESS & ECONOMY
German growth keeps eurozone economy steady
Solid growth in
p o w e r h o u s e
Germany kept
the eurozone
e c o n o m y
steady in late
from global
market turmoil and a sharp slowdown in China.
quarter and in line with analyst forecasts. German gross
weaker performances from southern countries by
Bailed out Greece fell back into recession as its
US retail sales edge higher in January
rose modestly
for the third
straight month
in January
despite falling
gasoline prices,
according to
the Commerce
economy, and for Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon
sales rise
company started breaking out from the third quarter,
from its snacks business, which includes Frito-lay and
Doritos chips, also increased 2 percent in the region.
in the quarter.
Airbus says
earnings grew
demand for the
aerospace and
INTERNATIONAL NEWS

22. 20 MTBiz
BUSINESS & ECONOMY
Nasdaq to acquire news distributor Marketwired
would acquire
newswire operator
and press release
d i s t r i b u t e r
Marketwired LP for
an undisclosed
sum, adding to the
e x c h a n g e
through a mix of debt and cash and is expected to close
capital return strategy, the company said. Marketwired,
Indonesia plans "big bang" opening of economy to
foreign investment
Indonesian President
in an economy long
dominated by powerful
which will ease rules in the e-commerce, retail,
establishment resistant to change. It would be the most
Yuan Strengthens Sharply on Central Bank Cue
C h i n a ’ s
currency hit its
the central
bank guided it
sharply up
of stumbling
central bank sets a daily reference rate and the yuan is
August, in recent months the central bank has sought to
to losses in markets around the world last week as the
holiday.
Iran Launches First Oil Shipments to Europe in Three
Years
crude prices, which already were struggling. Iran is a

23. 21 MTBiz
BUSINESS & ECONOMY
New Credit Extended by Chinese Banks Hits Monthly
High
high in January, as lenders front-loaded lending at the
beginning of the year while Chinese companiescut
foreign-currency debt and increased local borrowing as
billion yuan data from the People’s Bank of China
granted new loan quota, said HSBC economist Ma
Xiaoping. On the other hand, as the yuan weakens
taking out more yuan loans at home.
low-cost carriers, and the growth of markets such as
Indonesia, Myanmar and Vietnam, he added. Southeast
HSBC bank stays in London, snubbing Hong Kong
markets it would remain headquartered in Britain,
of where to put its headquarters in April last year, two
which has since been scaled down.
German economic growth could pick up again modestly
economy could expand at a slightly stronger rate than at
in its latest monthly report. According to the preliminary
household growing modestly, while lower exports had a
start of this year. With oil prices falling further at the

24. 22 MTBiz
BUSINESS & ECONOMY
Lagarde named for 2nd term to lead IMF
director of the
Monetary Fund, was
recently to a new
term at the global emergency lender. But with the world
economy slowing, and a number of emerging
remain on the precipice, and new challenges are
cropping up as a consequence of China’s slowdown and
in resources to be used to support struggling countries
and, when needed, rescue them and shepherd them
fragile
spending to pump up an economy that has wilted amid
rate in three years. While state spending will likely
Myanmar.

25. 23 MTBiz
ECONOMIC FORECAST
decline has been slower than expected owing to
growth, but this was tempered in the fourth quarter by
mild temperatures in the northern hemisphere reducing
stocks, falling imports to China and India, and policies to
capacity and slower seasonal demand. Precious metal
demand is expected to strengthen somewhat with a
modest pickup in global growth.
producers that prolongs the surplus in the global oil
from emerging market economies. On the other hand,
demand prospects in emerging market economies and
growth slowdown in China and larger than-expected
prospects in emerging market economies and capacity
expansion.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Source : World Bank
TABLE Nominal Price Indices (Actual and Forecasts) and Forecast Revisions
Energy 128 127 118 65 49 62 -24.7 25.8 -17.0 -8.3
Non-Energy 110 102 97 82 79 81 -3.7 2.2 -4.6 -4.3
Metals 96 91 85 67 60 63 -10.2 4.2 -9.2 -8.5
Agriculture 114 106 103 89 88 89 -1.4 1.6 -2.5 -2.5
Food 124 116 107 91 89 91 -1.7 1.9 -3.1 -2.8
Grains 141 128 104 89 86 88 -3.4 2.6 -5.0 -4.5
Oils and meals 126 116 109 85 83 86 -2.2 2.9 -4.2 -3.6
Other food 107 104 108 100 100 101 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0
Beverages 93 83 102 94 93 92 -0.9 -0.9 0.6 0.5
Raw Materials 101 95 92 83 83 85 -0.5 2.2 -2.6 -2.5
Fertilizers 138 114 100 95 92 92 -3.9 0.9 -3.3 -2.5
Precious Metals 138 115 101 91 83 83 -8.0 -0.3 -7.5 -6.7
RevisionChange (%)Price Indices (2010=100)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2015-16 2016-17 2016F 2017F

26. 24 MTBiz
WELLS FARGO MONTHLY OUTLOOK
U.S. Overview
central feature of annual economic outlook and has
Growing concerns about slowing global economic
percentage points from growth this year. While
direct control.
beginning of the year has been linked to concerns
about the global economic outlook. Wells Fargo
expects the global economy grew roughly 3 percent in
world, but it is not likely, by itself, to lead to recession in
place, although the pace of GDP growth in these major
slow growth in real GDP and lack of pricing power
means that nominal GDP growth on a global basis
soon.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Source: .S. Department of Commerce, IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securi es, LLC
2 2 2 2 2 2
.S. Real GDP
Bars = CAGR Line = r r Percent Change
GDP - CAGR: Q2 @ 3.
GDP - r r Percent Change: Q2 @ 2.
Forecast
2 2 2 2 2 2
urozone Real GDP
Bars = Compound Annual Rate Line = r r Change
Compound Annual Growth: Q2 @ .
er- rcent Change: Q2 @ .
Forecast
WELLS
SECURITIES
FARGO