Vladimir Drebentsov - Changing world of gas 18/02/2016
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February 18th 2016 Vladimir Drebentsov Changing world of gas Vice President, BP Russia, Head of Russia and CIS Economics, BP plc 18 февраля 2016 Докладчик: главный экономист BP по России и СНГ, вице-президент BP-Russia, д.э.н. В.В. Дребенцов Тема: Меняющийся рынок газа http://mse-msu.ru/category/nauchnieseminary/
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Vladimir Drebentsov - Changing world of gas 18/02/2016
- 1. bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Changing World of Gas Outlook to 2035 18th February 2016 Vladimir Drebentsov Head of Russia and CIS Economics, BP plc
- 2. © BP p.l.c. 2016 Energy Outlook 2035 0 100 200 300 400 500 1990 2005 2020 2035 Transport Other Power Industry Consumption by sector Bcf/d Global demand for natural gas: Golden age among fossil fuels 2016 Energy Outlook 0 30 60 90 120 Non-OECD OECD Transport Other Industry Power Demand growth by region Bcf/d, 2014-35
- 3. © BP p.l.c. 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 2000 2035 2016 Energy Outlook *Includes biofuels Annual demand growth by fuel 0 50 100 150 200 250 1994-2014 2014-35 Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Mtoe per annum Shares of primary energy Oil Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables* Changes in the fuel mix 3
- 4. © BP p.l.c. 2016 2016 Energy Outlook 4 Global supplies of natural gas grow robustly Gas production by type and region 0 125 250 375 500 1985 2010 2035 Bcf/d Ten year increments Bcf/d -25 0 25 50 75 100 1985- 1995 1995- 2005 2005- 2015 2015- 2025 2025- 2035 Non-OECD shale OECD shale Non-OECD other OECD other Total
- 5. © BP p.l.c. 2016 0 30 60 90 2005 2015 2025 2035 US shale gas forecasts Bcf/d 2016 Energy Outlook Shale gas revolution continues and goes global 5 Forecast year: 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2005 2015 2025 2035 Share of total production (right axis) Global shale gas production Bcf/d Share Shale gas
- 6. © BP p.l.c. 2016 2016 Energy Outlook 6 Shale gas production may expand even more rapidly Ten year increments by region Bcf/d 0 10 20 30 40 2005-15 2015-25 2025-35 S & C America Middle East Europe & Eurasia Africa Asia Pacific North America Shares of total gas production 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Shale gas Stronger shale case
- 7. © BP p.l.c. 2016 US new-well production per rig and breakeven price 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Gas Boe/d per rig Source: US EIA Tcf Constant $2014 23Tcm of gas is recoverable in North America at breakeven price below $3/mmBtu ($107/Mcm); 39.6Tcm is recoverable at less than $4/mmBtu ($143/Mcm)
- 8. © BP p.l.c. 2016 Bcf/d LNG supply 0 20 40 60 80 1990 2005 2020 2035 Other Africa Australia US Russia Qatar Growth of LNG Energy Outlook 2035 LNG grows by 92 Bcma in 2016-17
- 9. © BP p.l.c. 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1990 2005 2020 2035 Trade in gas grows; its pattern changes 2016 Energy Outlook 9 Imports as share of consumption Total trade Pipeline LNG Trade as share of global consumption -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 1990 2005 2020 2035 US China Europe
- 10. © BP p.l.c. 2016 Global gas prices LNG prices likely to remain weak, at least in the medium term 0 5 10 15 20 25 янв-14 янв-15 янв-16 NBP Asia spot LNG $/mmBtu HH Bcf/d, y-o-y -0,8 0,0 0,8 '14 '15 '16 '14 '15 '16 '14 '15 '16 '14 '15 '16 Japan Korea China Other Asia LNG demand
- 11. © BP p.l.c. 2016 Variable cost of LNG: 476 Bcm may compete in 2020 at below $4/MmBtu Source: IHS Energy Constant $2014
- 12. © BP p.l.c. 20161212 Growth in LNG leads to more diversified gas supplies in Europe Bcf/d Energy Outlook 2035 0 20 40 60 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 LNG Pipeline Production
- 13. © BP p.l.c. 2016 Finland Austria Italy Spain Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Egypt Turkey Georgia Syria Iraq Iran Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Armenia Saudi Arabia Jordan Lebanon Israel Cyprus Sweden Norway Germany France Hungary Romania Bulgaria Denmark Poland Belarus Ukraine Czech Rep. Slovakia Greece Malta Netherlands Liechtenstein San Marino Belgium Ireland Serbia Montenegro Albania Moldova Lithuania Latvia Estonia Luxembourg Andorra Bosnia & Herzegovina Croatia Slovenia Switzerland Macedonia Iceland Russia Russia United Kingdom 0 0 500 Miles 500 KM 37 11 10 15 90 49 LNG receiving terminal Main pipeline links 155 20 28 33 16 55 Total LNG import capacity: 203 bcm LNG LNG LNG LNG Key EU gas import infrastructure
- 14. © BP p.l.c. 2016 Russian gas industry needs export markets to grow St Bcm Source: Central Dispatch Unit of Ministry of Energy, BP 2035 Global Energy Outlook Forecast 0 200 400 600 800 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Production Consumption Exp orts Pot enti al
- 15. © BP p.l.c. 2016 Source: BP Statistical Review of World energy St Bcm 0 100 200 300 400 500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Imports from Russia Other pipeline imports LNG EU production 1990: Russia’ s share of EU consumption 31.4% 2014: Russia’ s share of EU consumption 30.7% Sources of EU gas supply
- 16. Russia has been a reliable supplier of gas to EU for most of the last 45 years, incl. 20 years of cold war Source: Gazprom, BP Invasion of AfghanistanInvasion of Czechoslo vakia Downing of Korean Boeing USSR Russia
- 17. Russian gas flows to Europe 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Mcm Geopolitics interfering with flows Source: ENTSOG
- 18. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Russian flows to Europe recovered in 2015 Bcf/d 4 6 8 10 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2011-13 range 2014 2015 Source: ENTSOG
- 19. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Source: BAFA, TTF, Russian Customs, BP calculations Russian LTC prices have been competitive in Germany since 2013, ca 10% has been sold directly at European gas hubs 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 янв.09 янв.10 янв.11 янв.12 янв.13 янв.14 янв.15 Russian TTF $/Mmbtu
- 20. Russia’s gas output by company, 2009 and 2014 St Bcm Source: CDU of MoE, ECM 0 100 200 300 400 500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Gazprom Oil companies NOVATEK Other independent producers PSA operators
- 21. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Gazprom output keeps contracting, while most independent gas producers are still growing output -27,5 -17,2 0,4 0,9 2,7 6,4 -20,0 -15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 Gazprom Total in Russia PSA operators NOVATEK Oil companies Other independent producers -19,9 -12,4 -0,8 -1,5 4,9 4,9 -25,0 -20,0 -15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 Gazprom Total in Russia PSA operators NOVATEK Oil companies Other independent producers St Bcm St Bcm Jan-Sep 2014, y-o-y Jan-Sep 2015, y-o-y
- 22. Exports are crucial for Gazprom as it is steadily losing domestic market to independent producers Gazprom% Source: CDU TEK, ECM 85 78 67 78 69 55 50 70 90 2005 2010 2014 Share in production Share in consumption
- 23. © BP p.l.c. 2015 2016 Energy Outlook China’s gas needs 0% 40% 80% 1985 2010 2035 Coal Oil Gas Non-fossils Shares of primary energy 23 Bcf/d China 0 20 40 60 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Net pipeline imports Net LNG imports Production
- 24. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Europe is expected to remain key destination for Russian gas Bcf/d Russian gas export by destinations 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 LNG China CIS Europe Source: BP Global Energy Outlook to 2035, 2015 edition
- 25. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Russia and Europe will remain interdependent in gas trade 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Share of Europe in Russian export Share of Europe in Russian production % % Europe’s dependence on Russia Russia’s dependence on Europe 20 30 40 50 60 70 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Share of Russian gas in European demand Share of Russian gas in European import