EKONOMI INTERNASIONAL_ Pertemuan 12_Foreign Exchange & Exchange Rate System.pdf

Foreign
Exchange &
Exchange
Rate System
[VALAS & SISTEM NILAI TUKAR]

(255,809)
(369,686) (360,373)
(420,666)
(496,243)
(610,838)
(716,542)
(763,533)
(710,997) (712,350)
(394,771)
(503,087)
(554,522)
(525,906)
(446,861)
(483,952) (491,421) (481,475)
(512,739)
(580,950) (576,341)
(676,684)
(845,047)
135,317
156,067
133,212 149,414
188,380
250,900
291,418
320,975
371,794
415,225
369,172
443,028
473,625 464,813 476,212 482,054
454,915 467,322
561,271
585,260 569,102
495,722
582,837
(1,000,000)
(800,000)
(600,000)
(400,000)
(200,000)
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
Balance on goods and services Primary Income Receipts
Primary Income Receipts: Investment income: Direct investment income (IEAXIDA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
Balance on goods and services (IEABCGSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
AS: Neraca Perdagangan Barang – Jasa &
Penerimaan Pendapatan Investasi Langsung
Millions of Dollars, Annual
Selisih Trade Balance & Primary Income
1,427,884

2015
NILAI
INVESTASI
2016
NILAI
INVESTASI
2017
NILAI
INVESTASI
2018
NILAI
INVESTASI
2019
NILAI
INVESTASI
1 Singapura 5.901,18 Singapura 8.441,60 Singapura 9.193,18 Singapura 9.193,18 Singapura 6.509,63
2 Jepang 2.876,99 Jepang 5.400,90 Jepang 4.996,20 Jepang 4.952,77 R.R. Tiongkok 4.744,51
3 Belanda 1.307,78 R.R. Tiongkok 2.665,30 R.R. Tiongkok 3.361,20 R.R. Tiongkok 2.376,54 Jepang 4.310,91
4 Korea Selatan 1.213,47 Hongkong 2.248,30 Hongkong 2.116,50 Hongkong 2.011,42 Hongkong 2.890,99
5 Hongkong 937,20 Belanda 1.475,00 Korea Selatan 2.024,60 Korea Selatan 1.604,72 Belanda 2.596,78
6 USA 893,16 USA 1.161,90 USA 1.992,80 USA 1.217,62 Korea Selatan 1.070,21
7 R.R. Tiongkok 628,30 Korea Selatan 1.065,80 Belanda 1.489,40 Australia 1.010,77 USA 989,31
7 Negara Investor Terbesar di Indonesia
Tahun 2015 - 2019 (JUTA US $)

Foreign Cash Flow
Chart of a
Multinational
Corporation (MNC)
Financial Markets and Institutions,
11th Edition
Jeff Madura

Export Import
Barang & Jasa Dunia
Valas/Forex
USD 7,5 Triliun/hari
https://id.linkedin.com/company/forex-trading-unlocked-inc-
The foreign exchange or forex market is the
largest financial market in the world – larger
even than the stock market, with a daily volume
of $7.5 trillion, according to the 2022 Triennial
Central Bank Survey of FX and OTC derivatives
markets.
https://www.trademap.org
https://www.bis.org

GDP DUNIA
=
USD 85 triliun / Tahun
FOREX
=
USD 6,6 triliun / Hari
=
USD 1.980 triliun / Thn
VS
Valas/Forex
USD 7,5 Triliun/hari
https://id.linkedin.com/company/forex-trading-unlocked-inc-

50,791
60,854
32,551
47,753
54,884
47,401
54,697
64,195
68,000 66,960
93,529
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020
Global market capitalization

Currency distribution of OTC foreign
exchange turnover
Net-net basis,1
percentage shares of average daily turnover in April2
Table 2
Currency
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
Share Rank Share Rank Share Rank Share Rank Share Rank Share Rank
USD 88.0 1 85.6 1 84.9 1 87.0 1 87.6 1 88.3 1
EUR 37.4 2 37.0 2 39.0 2 33.4 2 31.4 2 32.3 2
JPY 20.8 3 17.2 3 19.0 3 23.0 3 21.6 3 16.8 3
GBP 16.5 4 14.9 4 12.9 4 11.8 4 12.8 4 12.8 4
AUD 6.0 6 6.6 6 7.6 5 8.6 5 6.9 5 6.8 5
CAD 4.2 7 4.3 7 5.3 7 4.6 7 5.1 6 5.0 6
CHF 6.0 5 6.8 5 6.3 6 5.2 6 4.8 7 5.0 7
CNY³ 0.1 29 0.5 20 0.9 17 2.2 9 4.0 8 4.3 8
HKD³ 1.8 9 2.7 8 2.4 8 1.4 13 1.7 13 3.5 9
NZD³ 1.1 13 1.9 11 1.6 10 2.0 10 2.1 10 2.1 10
SEK 2.2 8 2.7 9 2.2 9 1.8 11 2.2 9 2.0 11
KRW³ 1.1 11 1.2 14 1.5 11 1.2 17 1.7 15 2.0 12
SGD³ 0.9 14 1.2 13 1.4 12 1.4 15 1.8 12 1.8 13
NOK³ 1.4 10 2.1 10 1.3 13 1.4 14 1.7 14 1.8 14
MXN³ 1.1 12 1.3 12 1.3 14 2.5 8 1.9 11 1.7 15
INR³ 0.3 20 0.7 19 0.9 15 1.0 20 1.1 18 1.7 16
RUB³ 0.6 17 0.7 18 0.9 16 1.6 12 1.1 17 1.1 17
ZAR³ 0.7 16 0.9 15 0.7 20 1.1 18 1.0 20 1.1 18
TRY³ 0.1 28 0.2 26 0.7 19 1.3 16 1.4 16 1.1 19
BRL³ 0.3 21 0.4 21 0.7 21 1.1 19 1.0 19 1.1 20
TWD³ 0.4 18 0.4 22 0.5 23 0.5 23 0.6 23 0.9 21
DKK³ 0.9 15 0.8 16 0.6 22 0.8 21 0.8 21 0.6 22
PLN³ 0.4 19 0.8 17 0.8 18 0.7 22 0.7 22 0.6 23
THB⁴ 0.2 22 0.2 25 0.2 26 0.3 27 0.4 24 0.5 24
IDR⁴ 0.1 27 0.1 29 0.2 30 0.2 30 0.2 31 0.4 25
https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx19.htm
Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and
Over-the-counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets in 2019

OTC foreign exchange turnover
Net-net basis,1
daily averages in April, in billions of US dollars Table 1
Instrument 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
Foreign exchange instruments 1,934 3,324 3,973 5,357 5,066 6,595
Spot transactions 631 1,005 1,489 2,047 1,652 1,987
Outright forwards 209 362 475 679 700 999
Foreign exchange swaps 954 1,714 1,759 2,240 2,378 3,203
Currency swaps 21 31 43 54 82 108
Options and other products² 119 212 207 337 254 298
Memo:
Turnover at April 2019 exchange rates3 1,854 3,071 3,602 4,827 4,958 6,595
Exchange-traded derivatives4 25 77 144 145 115 127
Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and
Over-the-counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets in 2019

Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover
Net-net basis
Daily averages, in millions of US dollars

Global OTC Derivatives Market
BIS Statistics Explorer: Table D5.1

Barter:
6000 BC
Gold and the Oldest
Civilizations:
5000 BC
Commodity Money:
1000 BC
Bimetallism: Romawi,
Persia, Islamic Civilization
Before 1875
Classical Gold
Standard:
1875–1914
Interwar Period: WW 1,
1914 – 1918. WW 2, 1939 – 1945
1915–1944
Bretton Woods
System:
1945–1971
FERR: The Flexible
Exchange Rate Regime
1971–Present
The Origin of Money & International Monetary System
1 2 3 4
8
7
6
5
CENTER OF STUDIES 3B ECONOMICS

Stabilitas Nilai Tukar Mata Uang 14 Negara Maju
Sumber: Michael D. Bordo, Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective

There are 180 different kinds of
official currencies in the world.
However, most international forex
trades and payments are made
using the U.S. dollar, British pound,
Japanese yen, and the euro.
Other popular currency trading
instruments include the Australian
dollar, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar,
and New Zealand dollar.
Currency trading occurs
continuously around the
world, 24 hours a day,
five days a week.

A Day of Foreign-
Exchange Trading
Secara tradisional,
hari perdagangan
dimulai di
Auckland,
Selandia Baru,
yang terletak
tepat di sebelah
barat garis
penanggalan
internasional.
Saat bumi
berputar, pasar
valuta asing
terbuka di kota-
kota lain,
termasuk Sydney,
Tokyo, Hong
Kong, Singapura,
Bahrain,
Frankfurt, Zurich,
Paris, London,
New York,
Chicago, dan San
Francisco.
International Business,
A Managerial Perspective.
eighth edition,
Ricky W. Griffin • Michael W. Pustay

Definisi Nilai Tukar (Exchange Rate)
Nilai tukar (E) adalah harga
mata uang asing yang
dinyatakan dalam mata
uang dalam negeri (atau
domestik).
Rp 14.000 / $

Motif Umum Memasuki Pasar Keuangan Internasional
1. Kondisi perekonomian
– Kondisi perekonomian Indonesia yg relatif lebih baik
dg negara tetangga dapat menstimulan masuknya arus
dana uk membeli surat berharga di Indonesia.
2. Harapan terhadap kurs valas
3. Diversifikasi Internasional
4. Tingginya suku bunga internasional
– Mata uang domestik yg cenderung terdepresiasi, dpt
meningkatkan rasio suku bunga domestik terhadap
suku bunga negara lain.

Motif Berburu Dana Di Pasar Internasional
1. Suku bunga rendah
– Kelebihan dana internasional → suku bunga
rendah
– Valas yg dipinjam ketika dikonversi ke dalam
mata uang domestik akan menjadi lebih
rendah nilainya dibanding ketika digunakan uk
membeli kembali valas tersebut uk membayar
pinjaman (currency mismatch dan maturity
mismatch)
2. Harapan Kurs Valas

Pasar EuroCurrency
Euro
Currency
Euro
Dollar
Petro
Dollar
Dev.
Countries
1.Perusahaan AS mendepositokan
dolar AS di bank-2 Eropa
(Eurodollars).
2.Euro dollars semakin masif
disebabkan dua faktor:
pertama, reserve requirements
tdk dikenakan terhadap
deposito Eurodollars. Kedua,
mendapat kucuran dana dari
OPEC yg mendapatkan windfall
profit (petrodollars).

Foreign Exchange (FX) Market
Foreign exchange (FX) market =
Pasar dimana mata uang (dan atau currency
derivatives) sebuah negara dan mata uang
negara lainnya ditransaksikan secara global
dan elektronik, yang kemudian darinya
terbentuk harga (nilai) mata uang sebuah
negara terhadap mata uang negara lainnya.
Is Forex Trading Really Profitable? - The European Financial Review

2 Tingkatan Dalam Pasar Valas
1. Pasar eceran
(retail market)
– Spread lebih besar
2. Pasar antarbank
(interbank market)
– Spread lebih tipis
Understanding the Interbank Forex Market | Signal Skyline

Cheol S. Eun dan Bruce G. Resnick, International
Financial Management, 8th edition, McGraw-Hill
Education, New York, 2018.
What Countries Trade the Most Forex?
Top three countries
with the largest
volume being traded
in the Forex market
are the United
Kingdom, United
States and Singapore.

What Countries Trade the Most Forex?
Forex Market Size, Volume And Liquidity (forexschoolonline.com)
The last Bank for
International Settlements
report showed that the
top three countries with
the largest volume being
traded in the Forex
market are the United
Kingdom, United States
and Singapore.

11.755
13.142
26.748
24.39
48.3
30.118
32.261
58.608
50.757
107.699
9.745 10.966 20.146 18.234 44.614 26.191 26.045 48.69 43.873 98.122
2.01 2.176
6.602 6.156
3.686 3.927
6.216
9.918
6.884
9.577
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Gain Loss Net
Capital Gain & Loss Transaksi Valas
Pada Bank Umum
(billion Rp)

Leading foreign exchange trading services
worldwide as of June 2020, by market share
• Leading Forex trading services by market share 2020 | Statista
History of Forex - Limit Markets Blog
Top ten banks
control more
than 60% of
daily forex
market volume.

The participants in the Forex market
The participants in the Forex market - Swagforex.com

Market Participants
The Foreign Exchange Interbank Market (investopedia.com)
Market participants include
forex brokers, hedge
funds, retail investors,
corporations, central banks,
governments, and institutional
investors such as pension funds.
The foreign exchange (also
known as FX or forex) market
is a global marketplace for
exchanging national
currencies against one
another.

Market Participants
What is Foreign Exchange Market? definition and meaning - Business Jargons
The structure of the foreign exchange
market constitutes central banks,
commercial banks, brokers, exporters
and importers, immigrants, investors,
tourists.
At the bottom of a pyramid are the
actual buyers and sellers of the foreign
currencies- exporters, importers, tourist,
investors, and immigrants. They are
actual users of the currencies and
approach commercial banks to buy it.
These are the main players of the foreign market, their
position and place are shown in the figure below.

Figure 13.1 The Mechanics of Petrodollar Recycling
Petrodollar Under Threat As Russia Sells Oil For Renminbi - News Punch

Impact of Monetary Policy across Financial Markets
11th Edition
Jeff Madura

Apresiasi & Depresiasi
Do Tucson Manufactured Homes In Tucson Hold Value (selltucsonmobilehomefast.com)
What Is Depreciation and How to Calculate It - PeaNich

Nilai Tukar $ Terhadap £
Manakah yg
Apresiasi & Depresiasi ??
1
2
3

2 Jenis Kutipan Nilai Tukar
Karena nilai tukar
adalah harga relatif
dari dua mata uang,
nilai tukar dapat
dikutip (quoted)
dengan salah satu
dari dua cara:
1. Jumlah unit mata uang dalam negeri yang dapat
ditukar dengan satu unit mata uang asing.
Misalnya, jika Amerika Serikat dianggap sebagai
mata uang domestic (home), nilai tukar dolar–
euro mungkin $1,15 per euro (atau 1,15 $/€).
Untuk membeli satu euro, Anda harus membayar
$1,15.
2. Jumlah unit mata uang asing yang dapat ditukar
dengan satu unit mata uang dalam negeri.
Misalnya, nilai tukar 1,15$/€ juga dapat
dinyatakan sebagai 0,87 per dolar AS (atau 0,87
€/$). Untuk membeli satu dolar, Anda harus
membayar €0,87.

On December 31, 2012,
for example, the euro was
quoted at $1.318 per
euro. According to our
definition, this is the price
from the U.S. perspective
and it is sometimes called
the American terms.
Conversely, the dollar is
quoted at €0.759 per
dollar, the European
terms.

Direct versus Indirect Quotations at One Point in Time
• Kutipan nilai tukar mata uang biasanya mencerminkan harga permintaan untuk
transaksi besar.
• Kutipan yang melaporkan nilai mata uang asing dalam dolar (jumlah dolar per
unit mata uang lain) disebut kutipan langsung, sedangkan kutipan yang
melaporkan jumlah unit mata uang asing per dolar dikenal sebagai kutipan
tidak langsung ..
(Direct Quotation)
11th Edition
Jeff Madura
Rp/$ $/Rp
$ 1 Rp 1
Rp 14000 $ 0.00007143
Direct (American Term) Indirect (European Term)

1. Kolom pertama memberikan kutipan langsung dari
perspektif A.S., yaitu harga satu unit mata uang asing dalam
dolar A.S. Misalnya, kutipan spot untuk satu pound Inggris
adalah 1,4402. (Kutipan berjangka untuk kontrak satu, tiga,
dan enam bulan, yang akan dibahas di bagian berikut,
muncul langsung di bawah kutipan spot untuk lima mata
uang.)
2. Kolom kedua memberikan kutipan tidak langsung dari
perspektif A.S., yaitu harga satu dolar A.S. dalam mata uang
asing. Misalnya, kita melihat bahwa kutipan spot untuk satu
dolar dalam pound sterling Inggris adalah £ 0,6944.
Jelaslah, kutipan langsung dari perspektif AS adalah kutipan
tidak langsung dari sudut pandang Inggris, dan kutipan tidak
langsung dari perspektif AS adalah kutipan langsung dari
sudut pandang Inggris.

Sebagian besar mata uang di pasar
antar bank dikutip dalam istilah
Eropa, yaitu dolar AS dihargai dalam
mata uang asing (kutipan tidak
langsung dari perspektif AS).
Namun, menurut konvensi,
merupakan praktik standar untuk
menentukan harga mata uang
tertentu dalam dolar AS, atau dalam
apa yang disebut istilah Amerika
(kutipan langsung dari perspektif
AS).

• Ini adalah praktik umum di antara pedagang mata
uang di seluruh dunia untuk menentukan harga dan
memperdagangkan mata uang terhadap dolar AS.
Misalnya, statistik BIS menunjukkan bahwa pada tahun
2016, 88 persen perdagangan mata uang di dunia
melibatkan dolar di satu sisi transaksi. Selain itu, dari
semua perdagangan mata uang yang melibatkan euro
di satu sisi transaksi, 21 persen melibatkan yen Jepang,
13 persen pound Inggris, 7 persen dolar Australia, dan
5 persen masing-masing franc Swiss dan dolar Kanada.
Tampilan 5.5 memberikan analisis rinci tentang
perputaran valuta asing menurut mata uang.

Jual & Beli Valas
𝐽𝑢𝑎𝑙 =
𝐽𝑢𝑚𝑙𝑎ℎ 𝑦𝑔 𝑎𝑘𝑎𝑛 𝑑𝑖𝑘𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑖
𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑎 𝐽𝑢𝑎𝑙 (𝑎𝑠𝑘)
𝐵𝑒𝑙𝑖 = 𝐽𝑢𝑚𝑙𝑎ℎ 𝑦𝑔 𝑎𝑘𝑎𝑛 𝑑𝑖𝑘𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑖 𝑥 ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑎 𝑏𝑒𝑙𝑖 (𝑏𝑖𝑑)
Bid & Offer Rates
Spread % = (Po – Pb) / Po x 100
Spread % = (13,801 – 13,663) / 13,801 x 100
= 0.99%
Kurs beli (bid): Kurs dimana bank bersedia membeli valas
Kurs jual (ask): Kurs dimana bank bersedia menjual valas

Cross Exchange Rates
1. Jenis mata uang yg tdk memiliki pasar
valas yg aktif
2. Hanya saja, kurs mata uang ke 2 negara
tersebut selalu tersedia dl Dollar AS
3. €1,0646/$ : ¥0,0081/$ =
€1 = ¥131,4483

Factors That Affect the Spread
Bank umum mengenakan biaya untuk melakukan transaksi valuta asing;
jadi mereka membeli mata uang dari pelanggan dengan harga yang
sedikit lebih rendah daripada harga di mana mereka menjualnya. Ini
berarti bahwa harga bid (harga beli) bank untuk mata uang asing akan
selalu lebih kecil dari harga permintaannya (quote jual).
Perbedaan antara harga bid dan ask dikenal sebagai bid/ask spread,
yang dimaksudkan untuk menutupi biaya yang terkait dengan
pemenuhan permintaan untuk menukar mata uang. Bid/ask spread
yang lebih besar menghasilkan lebih banyak pendapatan bagi bank
komersial, tetapi menunjukkan biaya yang lebih tinggi bagi individu
atau MNC yang terlibat dalam transaksi valuta asing. Bid/ask spread
biasanya dinyatakan sebagai persentase dari kutipan permintaan.
11th Edition
Jeff Madura

Biaya pemesanan. Biaya pesanan adalah biaya pemrosesan pesanan; biaya
tersebut termasuk biaya kliring dan biaya pencatatan transaksi.
Biaya persediaan. Biaya persediaan adalah biaya pemeliharaan persediaan
mata uang tertentu. Menyimpan inventaris melibatkan biaya peluang
karena dana tersebut dapat digunakan untuk tujuan lain. Jika tingkat suku
bunga relatif tinggi, maka biaya peluang untuk menyimpan persediaan
seharusnya relatif tinggi. Semakin tinggi biaya inventaris, semakin besar
perbedaan (spread) yang akan dibuat untuk menutupi biaya ini.
Factors That Affect the Spread
11th Edition
Jeff Madura

Kompetisi. Semakin ketat persaingan, semakin kecil spread yang dikutip oleh
perantara. Persaingan lebih ketat untuk mata uang yang diperdagangkan
lebih luas karena ada lebih banyak bisnis dalam mata uang tersebut.
Pembentukan platform perdagangan yang memungkinkan MNC untuk
berdagang secara langsung satu sama lain merupakan bentuk persaingan
dengan pedagang valuta asing, dan hal ini memaksa dealer untuk
mengurangi spread agar tetap kompetitif.
11th Edition
Jeff Madura

Volume. Mata uang yang lebih likuid cenderung tidak mengalami perubahan
harga yang tiba-tiba. Mata uang yang memiliki volume perdagangan besar
lebih likuid karena ada banyak pembeli dan penjual pada waktu tertentu. Ini
berarti bahwa pasar memiliki kedalaman yang cukup sehingga beberapa
transaksi besar kemungkinan tidak akan menyebabkan harga mata uang
berubah secara tiba-tiba.
11th Edition
Jeff Madura

Resiko mata uang. Beberapa mata uang menunjukkan volatilitas yang lebih
tinggi daripada yang lain karena kondisi ekonomi atau politik yang
menyebabkan permintaan dan penawaran mata uang berubah secara tiba-
tiba. Misalnya, mata uang di negara-negara yang sering mengalami krisis
politik dapat mengalami pergerakan harga yang tiba-tiba. Perantara yang
bersedia membeli atau menjual mata uang ini dapat mengalami kerugian
besar karena perubahan nilainya.
11th Edition
Jeff Madura

Perbedaan Transaksi Melalui Exchange & OTC
BASIS FOR
COMPARISON
OTC
(OVER THE COUNTER)
EXCHANGE
Meaning
Over the Counter or OTC is a
decentralized dealer market
wherein brokers and dealers
transact directly via computer
networks and phone.
Exchange is an organized and
regulated market, wherein trading
of stocks takes place between
buyers and sellers in a safe,
transparent and systematic
manner.
Market maker Dealer Exchange itself
Used by Small companies Well established companies
Physical Location No Yes
Trading hours 24×7 Exchange hours
Stocks Unlisted Stocks Listed Stocks
Transparency Low Comparatively high
Contracts Customized Standardized
Difference Between OTC and Exchange (with Comparison Chart) - Key Differences

Contoh: Exchange & OTC Market
Exchange Traded Vs OTC Markets - Difference Between OTC & Exchange (paytmmoney.com)
Jika Tuan X mencoba menjual rumah, dia bisa
melalui broker real estat yang dilengkapi
dengan aturan terstruktur, peraturan, dan
biaya untuk menghubungkannya dengan
pembeli. Atau dia bisa dengan mudah
memasang tanda “Dijual” di luar rumah dan
mencari pembeli sendiri.
Pialang real estat di sini analog dengan pasar
yang diperdagangkan di bursa sedangkan
menjual di rumah sendiri tanpa mengikuti
aturan apa pun akan seperti perdagangan
OTC.

2 Jenis (Waktu) Transaksi Valas
Valas
Spot
Cash
(same day settlement)
Tom
(one day settlement)
Spot
(2 x 24 Jam)
Forward
Pengiriman valas di
masa mendatang
There are two basic types
of exchange rates,
depending on the timing of
the actual exchange of
money.

3 Bentuk Fisik Transaksi Valas
Valas
Investasi Fisik
Jual – Beli, Spread
Surat Berharga
Deposito, Reksadana
Transaksi Margin
Percentage
Base Margin
Fixed Amount Margin
(leverage ratio)
Rasio jumlah dana yang bisa
ditransaksikan dengan modal
sendiri (sebagai collateral atau
jaminan) yang dimiliki.
Memberikan pinjaman kepada
investor sebesar persentase
tertentu dari nilai transaksi.

1. Percentage based margin memberikan pinjaman kepada
investor sebesar persentase tertentu dari nilai transaksi.
Margin diberikan pada mata uang yang menjadi base currency
dalam kuotasi. Contoh: dengan jaminan (collateral) sebesar
1% maka untuk bisa bertransaksi dengan nilai kontrak sebesar
$100,000 (1 lot), investor cukup menyediakan dana sebesar
$1,000 (1% x $100,000).
2. Rasio leverage untuk setiap broker bisa berlainan satu sama
lain, misal 1:50, 1:100, 1:200 atau 1:400. Dengan leverage
1:100 maka investor cukup menyediakan dana sebesar $1
untuk bisa trading dengan size sebesar $100. Sebagai contoh
jika memiliki dana sebesar $2,000 maka dengan leverage
1:100 kita bisa membeli sampai sebesar $200,000 (200.000
unit).
Pada prinsipnya perdagangan
forex dengan sistem margin
adalah pertukaran atau
perdagangan mata uang dengan
mata uang lainnya dalam
satuan kontrak dengan jaminan
atas transaksi (necessary
margin). Artinya, perdagangan
ini tidak melibatkan mata uang
secara fisik, melainkan hanya
nilainya saja. Dengan demikian,
investor tidak perlu menyetor
modal sebesar nilai fisik
transaksinya.

• Harga pasar GBP 1 = USD1.8850
Beli: USD 10,000 (1 lot)
Nilai transaksi: USD 18,850 (USD 10,000 x GPB 1.8850)
Initial margin: 1%
Dibutuhkan dana: USD 100 (1%x USD 10,000)
• Ketika harga pasar GPB 1 = USD 1.8950
Jual: USD10,000 (1 lot)
Diperoleh hasil: USD 18.950 (USD 10,000 x GPB 1.8950)
Keuntungan: USD 100 (USD 18.950 - USD 18.850)
Rate of Return: 100% (USD 100/USD 100 x 100%)

OTC or Over the counter market is a decentralised market
for unlisted securities, not having a specific physical location,
rather the firms/persons involved in trading directly
negotiate over a communication network such as telephone
lines, emails, computer terminals, etc. Trading Over the
counter is also called off-exchange trading, because of the
absence of a formal exchange.
Pasar OTC atau Over the counter adalah pasar terdesentralisasi
untuk sekuritas yang tidak terdaftar, tidak memiliki lokasi fisik
tertentu, melainkan perusahaan/orang yang terlibat dalam
perdagangan secara langsung bernegosiasi melalui jaringan
komunikasi seperti saluran telepon, email, terminal komputer, dll.

Today, Tomorrow, Spot
1. Today adalah transaksi pembelian atau penjualan
valuta asing lawan valuta (asing) lainnya pada hari
ini dengan penyerahan hari ini juga.
2. Tomorrow adalah transaksi pembelian atau
penjualan valuta asing lawan valuta (asing) lainnya
pada hari ini dengan penyerahan 1 hari kerja
setelah tanggal transaksi.
3. Spot adalah transaksi pembelian atau penjualan
valuta asing lawan valuta (asing) lainnya pada hari
ini dengan penyerahan 2 hari kerja setelah
tanggal transaksi.

Derivative Contracts in the Foreign Exchange Market
✓ The term derivative refers to a type of
financial contract whose value is
dependent on an underlying asset, group
of assets, or benchmark. A derivative is set
between two or more parties that can
trade on an exchange or over-the-
counter (OTC). Prices for derivatives derive
from fluctuations in the underlying asset.
✓ Derivatives are securities whose value is
dependent on or derived from an
underlying asset.
Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition. Jeff Madura Derivative Definition (investopedia.com)

▪ Derivatif adalah instrumen
keuangan yang memperoleh
nilai/harganya dari nilai aset
lain, yang dikenal sebagai
aset dasar.
▪ Aset dasar yang umum adalah
saham, obligasi, komoditas,
mata uang, suku bunga, dll.
Derivatives meaning : Forward, Futures, Option & Swap (economyria.com)

Derivative market financial crisis and more cba options ... (fc2.com)

▪ Karena derivatif tidak memiliki nilai
intrinsik (nilainya hanya berasal dari
aset dasar), derivatif rentan
terhadap sentimen pasar dan risiko
pasar.
▪ Faktor penawaran dan permintaan
dapat menyebabkan harga derivatif
dan likuiditasnya naik dan turun,
terlepas dari apa yang terjadi dengan
harga aset dasar.
Derivative Definition (investopedia.com)
Derivatives have become
increasingly popular in recent
decades, with the total value of
derivatives outstanding currently
estimated at over $600 trillion.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Derivatives
Advantages Disadvantages
▪ Lock in prices
▪ Hedge against unfavorable
movements in rates (Mitigate
risks)
▪ Can be leveraged
▪ Diversify portfolio
▪ Hard to value
▪ Complex to understand
▪ Sensitive to supply and
demand factors

Underlying Assets

✓ A currency derivative is a contract with a
price that is partially derived from the value
of the underlying currency that it
represents.
✓ Three types of currency derivatives that are
often used by MNCs are forward contracts,
currency futures contracts, and currency
options contracts.
Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition. Jeff Madura Derivative Definition (investopedia.com)

MNC in Derivative Forex Market
➢ In some cases, an MNC may prefer to lock in an
exchange rate at which it can obtain a currency
in the future.
➢ Multinational corporations commonly request
forward contracts to hedge future payments
that they expect to make or receive in a foreign
currency.
➢ In this way, they do not have to worry about
fluctuations in the spot rate until the time of
their future payments.
11th Edition
Jeff Madura
derivative forex - Bing

Transaksi Forward
Transaksi Forward
• Adalah suatu transaksi/kontrak pembelian
atau penjualan suatu valuta asing lawan
valuta (asing) lainnya pada tanggal valuta
asing di masa yang akan datang dengan
rate / harga yang ditentukan sekarang
(pada tanggal kontrak).
• Jangka Waktu; Transaksi forward dapat
dilakukan untuk jangka waktu 1 minggu
sampai dengan 1 tahun.

Motif Forward
1. Tujuan Transaksi Forward Untuk memenuhi kebutuhan
cicilan hutang dalam mata uang asing dan mengantisipasi
kecenderungan kurs valuta asing yang meningkat, Anda
dapat melakukan pembelian forward dengan jangka waktu
yang sesuai dengan jadwal pembayaran cicilan hutang.
2. Untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pembayaran L/C impor dan
mengantisipasi kecenderungan kurs valuta asing yang
meningkat, importir dapat melakukan pembelian forward
dengan jangka waktu sesuai saat pembayaran L/C impor.
3. Untuk mengantisipasi kecenderungan kurs valuta asing
yang menurun, eksportir dapat melakukan transaksi jual
forward dengan jangka waktu sesuai dengan penerimaan
pembayaran ekspor.

Mekanisme transaksi forward
digambarkan pada diagram di bawah ini:
• Many MNCs use the
forward market to hedge
their payables and
receivables. For example,
Google, Inc., normally has
forward contracts in place
that are valued at more
than $1 billion.
11th Edition
Jeff Madura

For example, the futures contract for West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) oil that trades on the CME and
represents 1,000 barrels of oil.
If the price of oil rose from $62.22 to $80 per
barrel, the trader with the long position—the
buyer—in the futures contract would have profited
$17,780 [($80 - $62.22) x 1,000 = $17,780].
The trader with the short position—the seller—in
the contract would have a loss of $17,780.

Forward: Premium & Discount
Forward Premium
(Kurs Forward lebih mahal Kurs Spot)
Forward Discount
(Kurs Forward lebih rendah Kurs Spot)
Forward premium is when the forward exchange
rate is higher than the spot exchange rate.
Forward discount is the opposite of forward
premium, it when the forward exchange rate is
lower than the spot exchange rate.

• annualized forward premium/discount
= forward rate – spot rate  360
spot rate n
where n is the number of days to maturity
• Example: Suppose £ spot rate = $1.681, 90-day £ forward
rate = $1.677.
$1.677 – $1.681 x 360 = – 0.95%
$1.681 90
So, forward discount = 0.95%
Forward Market

Currency Futures Contracts
Futures contracts are similar to forward contracts but
are sold on an exchange instead of over the counter.
1. A currency futures contract specifies a standard
volume of a particular currency to be exchanged on a
specific settlement date.
2. The futures rate is the exchange rate at which one can
purchase or sell a specified currency on the settlement
date in accordance with the futures contract.
3. Thus the futures rate’s role in a futures contract is
similar to the forward rate’s role in a forward contract.
11th Edition
Jeff Madura

Currency Options Contracts
Currency option adalah kontrak antara dua pihak yang memberikan hak
kepada pembeli untuk membeli (call) atau menjual (put) sejumlah mata
uang (FX) dasar tertentu pada atau sebelum tanggal tertentu dengan harga
tertentu.
Currency option pada dasarnya adalah hak yang diberikan kepada pembeli
mata uang asing untuk membeli atau menjual sejumlah mata uang asing
tertentu pada nilai tukar tertentu (harga kesepakatan) sampai tanggal
tertentu ketika kontrak berakhir.
Dalam kontrak derivatif ini, pembeli opsi mata uang tidak berkewajiban
atau terikat untuk menggunakan haknya untuk membeli atau menjual
mata uang tersebut.
Currency Option | Meaning and 2 Types in Easy Language- Finance Cracker
Currency Options and Its Benefits | Derivatives | Forex Management (businessmanagementideas.com)

© 2013 Pearson Education
1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education
8-93
• The buyer of an option is termed the holder,
while the seller of the option is referred to as the
writer or grantor.
• Every option has three different price
elements:
– The exercise or strike price – the exchange rate at
which the foreign currency can be purchased (call) or
sold (put)
– The premium – the cost, price, or value of the option
itself
– The underlying or actual spot exchange rate in
the market
Foreign Currency Options

To obtain this right, currency option buyer pays
an amount to currency option seller or writer
which is called premium or price of the currency
option.
For the buyer of a currency option, the gains are
unlimited and the losses are limited.
For the writer of the currency option, the losses
are unlimited and the gains are limited to the
extent of the premium he gains.
Currency Option | Meaning and 2 Types in Easy Language- Finance Cracker

▪ Premi harus cukup untuk risiko yang
ditanggung bagi “writers”, namun dari sudut
pandang pemegang (holder’s), harus layak
dibayar.
▪ Jika opsi berisi ketentuan yang menyatakan
bahwa opsi tersebut dapat dilaksanakan
kapan saja sebelum berakhirnya kontrak, opsi
tersebut disebut sebagai 'kontrak Amerika'.
Jika hanya dapat dilakukan pada tanggal
kadaluwarsa, itu disebut 'kontrak Eropa'.

© 2013 Pearson Education
8-96
Foreign Currency Options
• An option whose exercise price is the same as the
spot price of the underlying currency is said to be at-
the-money (ATM).
• An option that would be profitable, excluding the cost of
the premium, if exercised immediately is said to be in-
the-money (ITM).
• An option that would not be profitable, again excluding
the cost of the premium, if exercised immediately is
referred to as out-of-the money (OTM).

Currency options contracts can be classified as
calls or puts.
✓ A currency call option provides the right to
buy a specific currency at a specific price
(called the strike price or exercise price) within
a specific period of time. It is used to hedge
future payables.
✓ A currency put option provides the right to
sell a specific currency at a specific price
within a specific period of time. It is used to
hedge future receivables.
11th Edition
Jeff Madura

Call Vs Put Option
BASIS FOR COMPARISON CALL OPTION PUT OPTION
Meaning
Call option grants right to the
buyer, not the obligation, to
buy the underlying asset by a
particular date for the strike
price.
Put option grants the right to
the buyer, not the obligation,
to sell the underlying asset by
a particular date at the strike
price.
What it allows? Buying of stock (FX) Selling of stock (FX)
Relationship with stock
market
Direct Inverse
Potential gain Unlimited Limited
Investor looks for Price Rise Fall in prices
Difference Between Call and Put Option (with Comparison Chart) - Key Differences

▪ Saat Anda berinvestasi dalam call option, Anda
selalu mengharapkan harga naik untuk menuai
lebih banyak keuntungan,
▪ Sedangkan jika Anda memilih put option , Anda
ingin harga turun karena hanya dengan begitu
Anda akan dapat memperoleh keuntungan atau
Anda akan menderita kerugian sebesar premi
yang dibayarkan.

C5 - 102
• A currency call option grants the holder the
right to buy a specific currency at a specific
price (called the exercise or strike price)
within a specific period of time.
• A call option is
¤ in the money if spot rate > strike price,
¤ at the money if spot rate = strike price,
¤ out of the money
if spot rate < strike price.
Currency Call Options
• A currency put option grants the holder the
right to sell a specific currency at a specific
price (the strike price) within a specific
period of time.
• A put option is
¤ in the money if spot rate < strike price,
¤ at the money if spot rate = strike price,
¤ out of the money
if spot rate > strike price.
Currency Put Options

Currency Call Options
▪ Call Option dapat dimanfaatkan jika seseorang ingin mengunci
harga yang harus dibayarkan bagi suatu valuta di masa depan.
▪ Jika kurs spot dari suatu valuta naik melampaui strike price nya,
pemilik Call Option dapat menggunakan haknya dengan
membeli valuta pada strike price yang lebih rendah dari kurs
spot.
▪ Strategi ini kurang lebih sama dengan strategi yang digunakan
oleh pembeli kontrak futures, tetapi kontrak futures mewajibkan
pelakunya melakukan sesuatu (yaitu, membeli atau menjual),
sedangkan opsi valuta tidak mewajibkan pembelinya melakukan
apapun.
▪ Pemilik Call Option yang telah jatuh tempo hanya merugi
sebatas call premium (yaitu, harga pembelian opsi) yang mereka
bayar pada awalnya.

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
8-104
Foreign Currency Speculation
• Speculating in the options market
– If Hans were to speculate in the options market, his
viewpoint would determine what type of option to buy or
sell
– As a buyer of a call option, Hans purchases the August call
on francs at a strike price of 58 ½ ($0.5850/Sfr) and a
premium of 0.50 or $0.0050/Sfr
– At spot rates below the strike price, Hans would not
exercise his option because he could purchase francs
cheaper on the spot market than via his call option

8-105
– Hans’ only loss would be limited to the cost of the option, or the
premium ($0.0050/Sfr)
– At all spot rates above the strike of 58 ½ Hans would exercise the
option, paying only the strike price for each Swiss franc
• If the franc were at 59 ½, Hans would exercise his options buying Swiss
francs at 58 ½ instead of 59 ½

8-106
– Hans could then sell his Swiss francs on the spot market at 59 ½
for a profit
Profit = Spot rate – (Strike price + Premium)
= $0.595/Sfr – ($0.585/Sfr + $0.005/Sfr)
= $.005/Sfr

8-107
– Hans could also wait to see if the Swiss franc appreciates more,
this is the value to the holder of a call option – limited loss,
unlimited upside
– Hans’ break-even price can also be calculated by combining the
premium cost of $0.005/Sfr with the cost of exercising the option,
$0.585/Sfr
• This matched the proceeds from exercising the option at a price of
$0.590/Sfr

© 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.
7-108
Exhibit 7.3
Profit and Loss for the Buyer of a Call Option
if spot rate > strike price
if spot rate = strike price
if spot rate < strike price

7-109
Option Market Speculation
• Writer of a call (see Exhibit 7.4):
– What the holder, or buyer of an option loses, the
writer gains
– The maximum profit that the writer of the call
option can make is limited to the premium
– If the writer wrote the option “naked”, that is
without owning the currency, the writer would
now have to buy the currency at the spot and
take the loss delivering at the strike price
– The amount of such a loss is unlimited and
increases as the underlying currency rises
– Even if the writer already owns the currency, the
writer will experience an opportunity loss

7-110
Exhibit 7.4
Profit and Loss for the Writer of a Call Option

8-111
Profit = Premium – (Spot rate - Strike price)
= $0.005/Sfr – ($0.595/Sfr + $0.585/Sfr)
= - $0.005/Sfr
– The payout on writing a call option would be

Currency Options and Its Benefits |
Derivatives | Forex Management
(businessmanagementideas.com)

▪ Currency Call Option adalah kontrak yang
memberikan hak untuk membeli suatu
valuta tertentu pada kurs (harga)
tertentu selama periode waktu
tertentu.
▪ Exercise Price atau Strike Price adalah
harga yang harus dibayarkan pemilik opsi
pada saat ingin menggunakan haknya
membeli valuta.
▪ Tiap Opsi memiliki tanggal jatuh tempo
bulanan masing-masing. Financial Markets and Institutions,
11th Edition
Jeff Madura

Suatu Currency Put Option Diklasifikasikan menjadi 3 macam, yaitu :
▪ In The Money adalah istilah dimana kurs
berjalan lebih kecil dari strike price.
▪ At The Money adalah istilah dimana kurs
berjalan sama dengan strike price.
▪ Out Of Money adalah istilah dimana kurs
berjalan lebih tinggi dari strike price.
▪ Bagi valuta dan tanggal jatuh tempo tertentu,
suatu In The Money Put Option akan
memerlukan Premium yang lebih tinggi daripada
opsi At The Money atau Out Of Money.

Suatu Currency Call Option Diklasifikasikan menjadi 3 macam, yaitu :
• In The Money adalah istilah dimana kurs berjalan
melampaui (lebih besar) dari strike price.
• At The Money adalah istilah dimana kurs berjalan sama
dengan strike price.
• Out Of Money adalah istilah dimana kurs berjalan lebih
rendah dari strike price.
• Bagi valuta dan tanggal jatuh tempo tertentu, suatu In
The Money Call Option akan memerlukan Premium yang
lebih tinggi daripada opsi At The Money atau Out Of
Money.

Currency Put Option
• Currency Put Option adalah kontrak yang memberikan
hak untuk menjual suatu valuta tertentu pada kurs
tertentu/harga tertentu (strike price) selama periode
waktu tertentu.
• Pemilik Currency Put Option diberikan hak untuk
menjual suatu valuta dengan harga tertentu (strike
price) sepanjang periode waktu tertentu.
• Sama seperti call option, pemilik put option tidak
diwajibkan untuk menggunakan hak opsinya. Jadi,
kerugian potensial maksimum bagi pemilik put option
adalah sebesar premium yang dibayarkan pada saat
membeli opsi.

7-121
• Buyer of a Put (see Exhibit 7.5):
– The basic terms of this example are similar to those just illustrated
with the call
– The buyer of a put option, however, wants to be able to sell the
underlying currency at the exercise price when the market price of
that currency drops (not rises as in the case of the call option)
– If the spot price drops to $0.575/SF, the buyer of the put will
deliver francs to the writer and receive $0.585/SF
– At any exchange rate above the strike price of 58.5, the buyer of
the put would not exercise the option, and would lose only the
$0.05/SF premium
– The buyer of a put (like the buyer of the call) can never lose more
than the premium paid up front

7-122
Exhibit 7.5
Profit and Loss for the Buyer of a Put Option

8-123
Profit = Strike price – (Spot rate + Premium)
= $0.585/Sfr – ($0.575/Sfr + $0.005/Sfr)
= $0.005/Sfr
– The payout on buying a put option would be

7-124
• Seller (writer) of a put (see Exhibit 7.6):
– In this case, if the spot price of francs drops below 58.5 cents per
franc, the option will be exercised
– Below a price of 58.5 cents per franc, the writer will lose more than
the premium received from writing the option (falling below break-
even)
– If the spot price is above $0.585/SF, the option will not be
exercised and the option writer will pocket the entire premium

7-125
Exhibit 7.6
Profit and Loss for the Writer of a Put Option

8-126
Profit = Premium – (Strike price - Spot rate)
= $0.005/Sfr – ($0.585/Sfr + $0.575/Sfr)
= - $0.005/Sfr
– The payout on writing a put option would be

Currency Put Option adalah kontrak antara dua pihak di mana
pembeli opsi mendapatkan hak untuk menjual mata uang yang
mendasarinya pada harga yang telah ditentukan (Strike Price)
dalam jangka waktu tertentu.
Untuk membeli opsi put yang tepat, pembeli akan membayar
sejumlah penjual opsi put yang disebut premium.
Pembeli opsi put akan mendapat untung jika harga aset dasar
akan turun.
Jika pada atau sebelum tanggal kedaluwarsa, harga mata uang
yang mendasarinya bergerak di atas harga kesepakatan,
kerugian maksimum yang akan ditanggung pembeli opsi put
adalah jumlah premium.

Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Premium Put Option
• Kurs Spot berjalan relatif terhadap
Strike Price
Semakin rendah kurs spot berjalan
relatif terhadap strike price, semakin
berharga put option, karena
semakin besar kemungkinan put
option digunakan.

• Lamanya Waktu Sebelum Tanggal Jatuh Tempo
Yang mempengaruhi premium put option adalah lamanya
waktu hingga tanggal jatuh tempo sama seperti call option,
semakin panjang waktu jatuh tempo, semakin besar
premiumnya.
Periode yang lebih panjang menciptakan probabilitas gejolak
valuta yang lebih besar dan semakin besar kemungkinan opsi
akan digunakan. Hubungan ini dapat diuji dengan menilai
kuotasi premium put option bagi suatu valuta tertentu dengan
tanggal jatuh tempo yang berbeda-beda.

• Variabilitas Valuta
Semakin besar variabilitas valuta, semakin
besar premium put option, yang sekali lagi
mencerminkan yang akan digunakan.

Currency Swap
Currency Swap atau sering disebut Swap
adalah suatu transaksi / kontrak untuk
membeli atau menjual valuta asing lawan
valuta (asing) lainnya pada tanggal valuta
tertentu sekaligus dengan perjanjian untuk
menjual atau membeli kembali pada tanggal
valuta berbeda di masa yang akan datang,
dengan harga yang ditentukan pada tanggal
kontrak. Kedua transaksi tersebut
dilaksanakan sekaligus dan dengan
counterparty (pihak) yang sama.

Jangka Waktu & Tujuan
▪ Jangka WaktuTransaksi swap dapat dilakukan untuk
jangka waktu 1 minggu sampai dengan 1 tahun.
▪ Tujuan transaksi swap Untuk memenuhi kebutuhan
akan mata uang lokal sekaligus pembayaran hutang
dalam mata uang asing bagi anda yang menerima
pinjaman dalam mata uang asing dengan melakukan
transaksi swap Sell/buy, yaitu menjual USD lawan
Rupiah pada valuta spot (pada saat menerima
pinjaman dalam mata uang asing / USD) dan membeli
kembali USD lawan Rupiah pada valuta di masa yang
akan datang (pada saat pelunasan pinjaman dalam
mata uang asing/USD).

Mekanisme transaksi swap digambarkan
pada diagram di bawah ini:

Add a footer 136
Zero-Sum Game - Meaning, Examples, How does it Work? (wallstreetmojo.com)
Definisi zero-sum
game menggambarkan
situasi di mana
keuntungan yang
diperoleh satu pihak
sama dengan kerugian
yang dialami oleh pihak
lain.

Add a footer 137
Zero-Sum Game - Meaning, Examples, How does it Work? (wallstreetmojo.com)
Definisi zero-sum
game menggamba
rkan situasi di
mana keuntungan
yang diperoleh
satu pihak sama
dengan kerugian
yang dialami oleh
pihak lain.

“Sejarah Mata
Uang Beriringan
dg Pasang Surut
Peradaban Umat
Manusia”

“Sejarah Mata Uang
Beriringan Pasang
Surut Sejarah
Peradaban Umat
Manusia”

Barter trade
Commodity
money
Symbolic
money
Credit
money
Credit
clearing
The key to understanding money lies in being able to distinguish
between its mere forms on the one hand and its true essence on
the other. We often hear that money evolved from gold and silver
coin, to paper money, to “checkbook money.” But that does not
really tell the story. Such a progression confuses money’s forms
with its essences. What we really need to know is the value
basis of money in each of its historical manifestations. Paper is
not the essence of paper money, but only the carrier of
information…
…For now, let us just say that the important question to be
answered with regard to any piece of paper currency is “what
does the paper represent?” Not all paper is created equal.

Murray Newton Rothbard;
What Has Government Done to Our Money?
• Ketika kita menatap masa depan, prediksi
terhadap dolar dan sistem moneter
internasional sangat buram…hingga dan
kecuali jika kita kembali kepada standar
emas.
• Nasib sistem keuangan internasional akan
terombang-ambing antara nilai tukar tetap
atau nilai tukar fluktuatif, yang masing-
masing menjanjikan persoalan tanpa solusi,
yang sama-sama berfungsi secara buruk,
dan akhirnya akan mengalami disintegrasi.

“Tugas mengkombinasikan kemakmuran
dengan kestabilan harga sekarang ini,
merupakan masalah utama yang tidak
terpecahkan dalam kinerja perekonomian
secara agregat. (kita) harus menemukan
kesesuaian yang memuaskan sehingga
menghasilkan pertumbuhan dan tingkat
pengangguran yang dapat kita banggakan di
satu sisi, dan kinerja harga yang dapat kita
terima di lain sisi”
By Arthur M. Okun; The Political Economy of
Prosperity.

Free Powerpoint Templates
Page 146
Fifth, a new global reserve system could be created, one that
no longer relies on the United States dollar as the single
major reserve currency. The dollar has proved not to be
a stable store of value, which is a requisite for a
stable reserve currency. Nonetheless, motivated in part
by needs for self-insurance against volatility in commodity
markets and capital flows, many developing countries
accumulated vast amounts of such reserves during the
2000s. Hence, a new system needs to be developed. That
system should allow for better pooling of reserves at the
regional and international levels; it must not be based on a
single currency or even multiple national currencies but,
instead, should permit the emission of international liquidity
(such as SDRs) to create a more stable global financial
system. Such emissions of international liquidity could also
underpin the financing of investment in long-term
sustainable development, as suggested above.

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Page 147

Barter:
6000 BC
1.Suku Mesopotamia kemungkinan merupakan titik awal
sistem barter pada 6000 SM. Fenisia melihat
prosesnya, dan mereka mengadopsinya dalam
masyarakat mereka. Orang-orang kuno ini
memanfaatkan sistem barter untuk mendapatkan
makanan, senjata, dan rempah-rempah yang mereka
butuhkan. Karena nilai garam yang besar, tentara
Romawi menukar jasa mereka dengan kekaisaran
dengan imbalan garam.
1

Gold and the Oldest Civilizations:
5000 BC
1.Before gold was used as coinage, its value was recognized. Gold jewelry is
buried in the Tomb of Djer, king of the First Egyptian Dynasty. Gold's
beauty, luster, and malleability made it perfect for many uses. In fact, the
Egyptians became masters in the art of beating gold into leaf.
2.One of the oldest civilizations known to man, the Sumerians of
Mesopotamia, who lived in what is modern-day Iran and Iraq, first used
gold as sacred, ornamental, and decorative instruments in the fifth
millennium B.C.
3.Around the same period, the early Egyptians — the richest gold-producing
civilization of the ancient world — began the art of gold refining. Like the
Sumerians, the Egyptians used gold primarily for personal adornment,
rather than for monetary purposes, although the kings of the fourth to
sixth dynasties (c. 2700 - 2270 B.C.) did issue some gold coins.
2

Commodity Money: 1000 BC
1.In 600 B.C., Lydia's King Alyattes minted the first official currency. The
coins were made from electrum, a mixture of silver and gold that occurs
naturally, and the coins were stamped with pictures that acted as .
2.The first large-scale, private issuance of pure gold coins was under King
Croesus (560-546 B.C.), the ruler of ancient Lydia, modern-day western
Turkey. denominations Stamped with his royal emblem of the facing
heads of a lion and a bull, these first known coins eventually became the
standard of exchange for worldwide trade and commerce. Following the
collapse of the Lydian Empire in 546 B.C., the Persians gained control of
Asia's richest gold sources, which gave it far greater power in the world.
3

Bimetallism: Before 1875
1.Romawi; Gold was first used for money in 643 BC. In 30 BC, the Roman
Emperor Augustus set the price of gold at 45 coins to the pound. Later,
Emperor Augustus (31 B.C. - A.D. 14) was the first Roman to establish a
golden currency, known as the aureus, which helped spur the dynamic
expansion of the Roman economy.
2.Persia; The standard gold coin of the Persian Empire was the daric,
named after Darius the Great (521 - 486 B.C.). Alexander the Great of
Macedonia (336 B.C. - 323 B.C.) subsequently established a rival coinage
system that served as one of the important factors in his conquest of
Persia and the movement of gold into Europe.
3.Nabi Muhammad di Madinah, Khilafah Umayyah, Abbasiyah, Utsmani:
622 M – 1924 M.
4.Eropa dan AS:
5.England adopted a de facto gold standard in 1717 after the master of the
mint, Sir Isaac Newton, overvalued the guinea in terms of silver, and
formally adopted the gold standard in 1819.
4

Classical Gold Standard: 1875–1914
1.In 1861, Treasury Secretary Salmon Chase printed the first U.S. paper currency. The
Gold Standard Act of 1900 established gold as the only metal for redeeming paper
currency. It set the value of gold at $20.67 an ounce.
2.In the 1800s countries adopted the gold standard. The gold standard guaranteed
that the government would redeem any amount of paper money for its value in
gold. This worked fine until World War I where European countries had to suspend
the gold standard to print more money to pay for the war.
3.The United States, though formally on a bimetallic (gold and silver) standard,
switched to gold de facto in 1834 and de jure in 1900 when Congress passed the
Gold Standard Act. In 1834, the United States fixed the price of gold at $20.67 per
ounce, where it remained until 1933. Other major countries joined the gold
standard in the 1870s.
4.Over the 179 years the United States was on some form of a gold or metallic
standard (1792-1971), the economy grew an average of 3.9% each year. Since 1971,
under a fiat money standard not backed by gold in any way, economic growth has
averaged 2.8% per year.
5

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 153 of 55
Exchange Rate Regimes and the International Financial System
Countries on the Gold Standard in 1913 (Shaded in Yellow)

Fraction of countries by type
of regime (cumulative %)
Exchange Rates Regimes of the
World, 1870–2010 The shaded
regions show the fraction of
countries on each type of regime by
year, and they add up to 100%. From
1870 to 1913, the gold standard
became the dominant regime.
During World War I (1914–1918),
most countries suspended the gold
standard, and resumptions in the
late 1920s were brief. After further
suspensions in World War II (1939–
1945), most countries were fixed
against the U.S. dollar (the pound,
franc, and mark blocs were
indirectly pegged to the dollar).
Starting in the 1970s, more
countries opted to float. In 1999 the
euro replaced the franc and the
mark as the base currency for many
pegs. © 2014, 2008, 2012 by Worth Publishers
All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America
Robert C. Feenstra and Alan M. Taylor

Mekanisme Gold Standard
✓ AS; $20,67/Ons emas (nilai tukar sebelum perang dunia 1)
✓ Inggris; £4,247/Ons emas
Prasyarat, Kedua mata uang bebas ditukar dg emas:
$20,67/𝑂𝑛𝑠
£4,247/𝑂𝑛𝑠
= $4,866/£

The Price-Specie-
Flow Mechanism

Interwar Period: 1915–1944
1.When World War I broke out, the United States and European
countries suspended the gold standard so they could print enough
money to pay for their military involvement.
2.On March 6, 1933, the newly-elected President Franklin D.
Roosevelt closed the banks in response to a run on the gold
reserves at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
3.On April 20, FDR ordered Americans to turn in their gold in exchange
for dollars to prohibit the hoarding of gold and the redemption of
gold by other countries.
4.On January 30, 1934, the Gold Reserve Act prohibited the private
ownership of gold except under license. It allowed the government to
pay its debts in dollars, not gold, and authorized FDR to increase the
price of gold from $20.67 per ounce to $35 per ounce (which
consequently devalued the dollar).
6

Bretton Woods System:
1945–1971
1.The Bretton Woods Agreement established a U.S. dollar based
international monetary system and created two new
institutions the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the
World Bank.
2.Countries pegged their currencies to the dollar at specified
parities, which in turn was convertible into gold at the official
rate of $35/oz. However this only applied to dollars held by
central banks and governments and not by private citizens.
3.Other countries had to intervene to fix their exchange rates
against the dollar.
7

Bretton Woods System
https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/index/gold/bretton-woods/
The French government of Charles De Gaulle led
demands from many nations for the US to
exchange dollars for physical gold. The Bretton
Wood system began to truly collapse in 1971,
when President Richard Nixon’s administration
was forced to devalue the US dollar to $38 to an
ounce of gold.
In 1973, a further 10% devaluation was
announced. Finally, in 1976, the Jamaica Accord
formally ended the agreement, and completed
the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. By
1980, all major currencies were left with on a
floating exchange rate international currency
market – the fiat monetary system used to this
day.

FERR: The Flexible Exchange Rate Regime
1971–Present
1.Persistent U.S. balance-of-payments deficits steadily reduced
U.S. gold reserves, however, reducing confidence in the
ability of the United States to redeem its currency in gold.
Finally, on August 15, 1971, President Richard M. Nixon
announced that the United States would no longer redeem
currency for gold.
2.Most currencies were allowed to float to levels determined
by market forces as of March 1973.
3.Since March 1973, exchange rates have become much more
volatile and less predictable than they were during the
“fixed” period.
8

Bimetallism:
Romawi, Persia,
Khilafah
Islamiyah.
Nilai tukar mata
uang relatif tetap,
mengikuti
stabilitas nilai
emas & perak.
Classical Gold
Standard:
Nilai tukar mata
uang relatif tetap,
mengikuti
stabilitas nilai
emas.
Bretton Woods
System:
Nilai tukar mata
uang relatif tetap
ketika USD masih
setimbang dg Cad.
Emas.
the Flexible
Exchange Rate
Regime.
Nilai tukar mata
uang bergerak
volatile dg system
nilai tukar
berbeda-beda.
Before 1875 1875 s.d 1914 1945 s.d 1972 1971 - Present
1 2 3 4

The International
Monetary System

International Monetary System
International
Monetary
System
Rules,
Conventions, and
Supporting
Institutions
International
payments, Cross-
border
investment
Exchange rates
among currencies
International monetary
systems are sets of
internationally agreed rules,
conventions, and supporting
institutions, that facilitate
international payments,
cross-border investment, and
exchange rates among
currencies are determined.

https://www.thebalance.com/how-do-exchange-rates-work-3306084

Exchange rate regimes: Managed float | Policonomics
Summary
Exchange rates can be understood as the price of one currency in
terms of another currency. However, just like for goods and
services, we must take into account what determines that price,
since governments can influence it, and even fix it.
Exchange rate regimes (or systems) are the frame under which
that price is determined. From a purely floating exchange rate, to
a central bank determined fixed exchange rate, this Learning Path
explains the basics of each of these regimes. We start by learning
about the concept itself, and continue with each regime type,
starting with the ones with highest monetary policy independence,
and moving to less independent regimes.
1 2

A Spectrum of
Exchange Rate
Regimes:
The chart
shows a recent
classification
of exchange
rate regimes
around the
world.
© 2014, 2008, 2012 by Worth Publishers All rights
reserved. Printed in the United States of America
International Ecoomics, Robert C.
Feenstra and Alan M. Taylor

Exchange Rate
Arrangements as of 2005
Source: IMF, www.imf.org, April 27, 2006

Summary of the Monetary System
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS
Published by McGraw-Hill Education, New York. J. Michael Geringer, Michael S. Minor, Jeanne M. McNett

Pergeraka Nilai Tukar
Mengambang Terkendali
Floating Exchange Rate:
Batas atas dan bawah
dihapus
Fix Exchange Rate: Nilai tukar Rp
terhadap US$ ditetapkan dg
nominal yg tetap
Permainan Spekulasi terhadap nilai tukar dilakukan dg jalan meniupkan rumor (baik-buruk)
&/ secara langsung melakukan transaksi valas uk mempengaruhi besaran uang yg beredar

Requirements of a good international monetary system
1. Adjustment: a good system must be able to
adjust imbalances in the balance of payments
quickly and at a relatively lower cost;
2. Stability and Confidence: the system must be
able to keep the exchange rates relatively
fixed and people must have confidence in the
stability of the system;
3. Liquidity: the system must be able to provide
enough reserve assets for a nation to correct
its balance of payments deficits without
making the nation run into deflation or
inflation.
International Monetary System, Suresh Thengumpallil

Gresham's law is an economic principle
that states: "if coins containing metal of
different value have the same value as
legal tender, the coins composed of the
cheaper metal will be used for payment,
while those made of more expensive
metal will be hoarded or exported and
thus tend to disappear from circulation.”
It is commonly stated as:
"Bad” (abundant) money drives out
“Good” (scarce) money”

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2014/07/05/not-floating-but-flailing

2-180
Exhibit 2.1
The Evolution of the Global Monetary System

2-181
Exhibit 2.2 The BIS Exchange Rate Index of the
Dollar

Pergerakan Nilai
Tukar dan Inflasi IHK,
1981 - 1999
Sumber: Bank Indonesia
Uma Ramakrhisnan dan Athanasios Vamvakidis, Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia, IMF
Working Paper; 2002, hal. 4-5.
http://vuir.vu.edu.au/16001/1/SYURKANI_3714387_Revised_Thesis_FINAL_acrobat_version.pdf

Tingkat Inflasi 14 Negara Maju
Sumber: Michael D. Bordo, Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective

Percent change in the U.S. dollar value
of one unit of domestic currency
Currency Crashes The chart
shows that exchange rate crises
are common events.
Note: An exchange rate crisis is
defined here as an event in which
a currency loses more than 30% of
its value in U.S. dollar terms over
one year, having changed by less
than 20% each of the previous two
years. There were currency crises
according to this definition in 2001
also in Lesotho, Swaziland and
Namibia, but these countries are
pegged (the latter) to or in a
monetary union with South Africa,
and only this one crisis is shown.

Sistem Nilai Tukar /
Kelebihan-Kekurangan
Keunggulan Kelemahan
Sistem nilai tukar
tetap
1. Kegiatan spekulasi di pasar uang semakin sempit.
2. Intervensi aktif pemerintah dalam mengatur nilai tukar
sehingga tetap stabil.
3. Pemerintah memegang peranan penuh dalam pengawasan
transaksi devisa.
4. Kepastian nilai tukar, sehingga perencanaan produksi
sesuai dengan hasilnya.
1. Cadangan devisa harus besar, untuk menyerap kelebihan dan
kekurangan di pasar valas.
2. Kurang fleksibel terhadap perubahan global.
3. Penetapan kurs yang terlalu rendah atau terlalu tinggi akan
mempengaruhi pasar ekspor impor
4. Kebijakan fiskal dan moneter yg restriktif (membatasi) dapat
membebani bagi Negara yg ingin mengambil kebijakan untuk
meringankan permasalahan pengangguran atau pertumbuhan
ekonomi yg lambat.
5. Nilai tukar yg tercermin tidak sesuai dengan indikator
fundamental ekonomi.
Sistem nilai tukar
Mengambang Bebas
1. Cadangan devisa relatif lebih aman.
2. Persaingan pasar ekspor-impor sesuai dengan mekanisme
pasar.
3. Kondisi ekonomi negara lain tidak akan berpengaruh besar
terhadap kondisi ekonomi dalam negeri.
4. Masalah neraca pembayaran dapat diminimalisir.
5. Tidak ada batasan valas.
6. Equilibrium pasar uang.
1. Praktik spekulasi semakin bebas.
2. Penerapan sistem ini terbatas pada negara yang sistim
perekonomiannya mapan, masih kurang teapt untuk negara
berkembang.
3. Tidak adanya intervensi pemerintah untuk menjaga harga.
Sistem nilai tukar
Mengambang
Terkendali
1. Mampu menjaga stabilitas moneter dengan lebih baik dan
neraca pembayaran suatu negara.
2. Adanya aktifitas MD/MS dalam pasar valuta berdasarkan
kurs indikasi akan mampu menstabilkan nilai tukar dengan
lebih baik sesuai dengan kondisi ekonomi yang terjadi.
3. Devisa yang diperlukan tidak sebesar pada nilai tukar tetap.
4. Mampu memadukan sistem tetap dan mengambang.
1. Devisa harus selalu tersedia dan siap diguankan sewaktu-
waktu.
2. Persaingan yang ketat antara pemerintah dan spekualan
dalam memprediksi dan menetapkan kurs.
3. Tidak selamanya mampu mengatasi neraca pembayaran.
4. Selisih kurs yang terjadi dalam pasar valuta akan mengurangi
devisa karena memakai devisa untuk menutupi selisihnya.
Dilema 3 Sistem Nilai Tukar Berbasis Fiat Money

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCHUS#0

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=FX_IDC%3AUSDCNY

https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/inves
tor/charts/an-annotated-history-
of-the-usdcny-exchange-rate/

Each corner of the triangle represents a viable
policy choice. The labels on the two adjacent
edges of the triangle are the goals that can be
attained; the label on the opposite edge is the goal
that has to be sacrificed.
Trade gains and an absence of (or political
indifference to) stability costs help explain how
the gold standard came into being before 1914
(top corner).
Subsequently, reduced trade gains and higher
actual (or politically relevant) stability costs help
explain the ultimate demise of the gold standard
in the 1920s and 1930s.
Countries sought new solutions to the trilemma to
achieve policy autonomy, either by floating
(bottom right corner) or by adopting capital
controls (bottom left corner).
Solutions to the Trilemma
Before and After World War I.
FIAT MONEY
It is a trilemma
rather than a
dilemma because
the available
options are three:
1 and 2, 1 and 3,
or 2 and 3.

In the 1960s, the Bretton Woods system became
unsustainable because capital mobility could not be
contained. Thus, countries could no longer have
fixed rates and monetary autonomy (bottom left
corner).
In the advanced countries, the trilemma was
resolved by a shift to floating rates, which
preserved autonomy and allowed for the present
era of capital mobility (bottom right corner). The
main exception was the currency union of the
Eurozone.
In developing countries and emerging markets, the
“fear of floating” was stronger; when capital
markets were opened, monetary policy autonomy
was more often sacrificed and fixed exchange rates
were maintained (top corner).
Solutions to the Trilemma
Since World War II

The
Monetary
Trilemma for
Open
Economies
Paul R Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, Marc J Melitz.
International Economics; Theory & Policy.
PEARSON; USA, 2018.

US$
Apresi
asi
US$
Depres
iasi
Suku Bunga
Turun
Harga Brg
Impor Turun
Harga Brg
Ekspor Naik
Harga Brg
Impor Naik
Harga Brg
Ekspor Turun
HARGA BRG EKSPOR TURUN
- Negatif.
- Dunia usaha orientasi ekspor
lesu / bangkrut
- Perolehan Devisa Turun
- Nilai tukar Rp terancam
depresiasi lebih dalam
- Positif.
- Ekspor meningkat, jika masih
memberikan keuntungan,
perolehan devisa naik
Rp
Depres
iasi
Rp
Apresi
asi
HARGA BRG EKSPOR NAIK
- Negatif.
- Dunia usaha orientasi ekspor sulit
bersaing (harga brg menjadi
lebih mahal)
- Perolehan Devisa Turun
- Positif.
- Ekspor meningkat, jika harga
masih mampu bersaing,
Perolehan devisa bisa naik
HARGA BRG IMPOR NAIK
- Negatif.
- Dunia usaha (bahan baku-
mesin dr luar negeri) sulit
berkembang
- Positif.
- Konsumsi Brg (konsumtif) Impor
Turun (devisa terjaga)
- Dunia usaha domestik
meningkat
HARGA BRG IMPOR TURUN
- Negatif.
- Kosumsi brg (konsumtif & bahan
baku, modal) impor meningkat.
- Dunia usaha domestik lesu
- Kebutuhan devisa meningkat
- Positif.
- Dunia usaha (bahan baku-mesin
asing) lebih mudah berkembang
Suku Bunga
Naik
SUKU BUNGA NAIK
- Negatif.
- Cost of capital naik, Dunia
usaha sulit berkembang
- Positif.
- Rupiah terhindar depresiasi
lebih dalam?
- Capital outflow terjaga?
SUKU BUNGA TURUN
- Negatif.
- Terjadi capital outflow
- Positif.
- Cost of Capital (domestik)
turun, Dunia usaha lebih mudah
berkembang

Add a footer 199
Kenapa Dollar $ Kuasai Dunia
Politik & Militer
Bretton Woods
Agreement, GDP;
Supply & Demand
Mata Uang Dollar $
• $ digunakan AS uk support
Politik & Militer, dan Politik –
Militer digunakan uk
menjaga kekuatan $
• Kesepakatan BWA
menjadikan $ mata uang
internasional, GDP AS
membentuk permintaan $
• $ Dicetak & diterbitkan oleh
the FED

X
X
X
SELEKTIF
PROFIT SHARING DARI MODAL SENDIRI
SELEKTIF
PROFIT SHARING DARI MODAL SENDIRI
SELEKTIF
MATA UANG
BERBASIS EMAS &
PERAK, SERTA TIDAK
RIBAWI
SPEKULASI & MENIMBUN
DILARANG
LEMBAGA KEUANGAN TDK MENCARI PROFIT DARI SELISIH BUNGA KREDIT & SIMPANAN
Larangan menimbun, menipu
timbangan, menguasai kepemilikan
umum, Menyewakan tanah pertanian,
Korupsi Kepala Daerah, Anggota
DPR/D, Hakim, Petinggi Partai

Mata
Uang
Rupiah Tidak Memiliki Nilai Intrinsik Rp = Fiat Money Redenominasi & GETAR
Sektor Riil
Pangan & Energi Tdk Mandiri Tdk ada Modal & Teknologi Tarif & Harga pasar
Permintaan ekspor komoditas (karet,
Minyak Sawit, Batubara) dari Eropa &
China tergerus
Krisis Utang Uni Eropa
Hilirisasi Industri
(deregulasi, Tax Holiday)
Intermediasi Perbankan Lemah Risiko Kredit Macet Kredit Lunak (KUR)
Dominasi USD dl EksIm Fluktuasi Dollar yg tinggi Local Currency Settlement
Sektor Non Riil
Perbankkan
UU Membolehkan Kepemilikan
Saham Asing 100%
Limitation
Pasar Modal Amblas (IHSG 4300, awal
5000 lebih)
Dominasi Asing 60-65%
Asing = 1.969,51
Lokal = 1.065,94
Mengajak Rakyat Aktif
di Psr. Modal
Pasar Valas Volatile Sistem Devisa Bebas
Time Holding
Limitation of transactions
US$25ribu
Bilateral currency
Swap Agreement
Meningkatkan cad. devisa
Pasar SBN Lesu Yield (Imbal hasil) Naikkan Imbal Hasil

FIAT MONEY,
FRACTIONAL
RESERVE, INTEREST,
Motif Spekulasi
PERUSAHAAN
MASYARAKAT
NILAI TUKAR MATA UANG
DOMESTIK TURUN
HARGA BARANG IMPOR
(BAHAN BAKU, MESIN)
NAIK
TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA NAIK
MENYEBABKAN COST OF CAPITAL
SEMAKIN BESAR
BIAYA PRODUKSI NAIK
PRODUSEN MENAIKKAN
HARGA BARANG
SEMAKIN MENAMBAH
BEBAN KEUANGAN
PERUSAHAAN
TINGKAT KONSUMSI
TURUN
TUNTUTAN KENAIKAN
UPAH & PENDAPATAN
KEPADA PERUSAHAAN
PRODUSEN
MENURUNKAN
PRODUKSI / MENEKAN
BIAYA PRODUKSI (PHK)
PENGANGGURAN
BERTAMBAH
TINGKAT KONSUMSI
SEMAKIN TURUN
KEMISKI
NAN &
GEJOLAK
SOSIAL
MEMPERBESAR JUB
(M1,M2,M3)
INFLASI
BANK SENTRAL
KENAIKAN HARGA
MIGAS
KEPADA PEMERINTAH
MENAMBAH BEBAN
APBN
DEFISIT / KEBIJAKAN
FISKAL
MENCETAK UANG,
MANAMBAH UTANG
PERUSAHAAN
BANGKRUT
PRIVATISASI,
MENAIKKAN PAJAK

LOOSE MONEY
POLICY
BEBAN BUNGA
Bank Sentral
SEMAKIN BESAR
JUB SEMAKIN
BESAR
INFLASI
MENGATASI
KELESUAN
PEREKONOMIAN
PARADIGMA
KAPITALISME
SUKU BUNGA
TURUN
SEKTOR
RIILTERSENDAT
DEFISIT MODAL
DALAM NEGERI
CAPITAL FLIGHT
SUKU BUNGA LUAR
NEGERI LEBIH
MENJANJIKAN
TRANSAKSI
SPEKULATIF DI
PASAR
MODAL&UANG
COST OF
CAPITAL TURUN
SEKTOR RIIL
RELATIF
BERJALAN
DEFLASI
BANK
MENGUCURKAN
DANA
RTP LESS
PROFIT
Paradigma
Kapitalisme:
RTP Enggan
Berproduksi
RESESI
SEKTOR RIIL
TERHAMBAT
TMP
-RTP = Rumah Tangga Produksi
-TMP = Tight Money Policy
Neraca
Pembayaran
Tertekan
BANK
SENTRAL
TIGHT MONEY
POLICY
BEBAN BUNGA
Bank Sentral
SeMAKIN BESAR
DIKEMUDIAN
HARI JUB
SEMAKIN BESAR
INFLASI
MENJAGA
KESTABILAN
HARGA
SUKU BUNGA
NAIK
COST OF CAPITAL
NAIK
SEKTOR RIIL
TERHAMBAT
HARGA BARANG &
PENGANGGURAN NAIK, &
KONSUMSI TURUN

3 Channels Imperialisme Fiat Money
Imperialisme
Fiat Money
($)
Seigniorage
Foreign
Exchange
Reserve
Export -
Import

INFLASI
UANG
Jumlah Uang
Supply
Bentuk Mata Uang
Fiat Money
Fungsi Uang, Kejar Seigniorage,
Spekulatif, FRR, Interest, Credit Card
Mata uang Asing;
Contoh Dollar AS
Gold & Silver
Demand
Kepercayaan Rakyat
Nilai Intrinsik?
Undang-Undang
Power of Politics
Perhiasan & King Metal
Kekayaan SDA
BARANG
Jumlah Barang
Jumlah Produksi
Tenaga Kerja, Ketersediaan Modal,
Bahan baku, Teknologi, Land
Luas Wilayah, Etos Kerja,
Kebiasaan Saving & Investment,
Hub. Tenaga Kerja dg Dunia
Usaha
Jumlah Konsumsi
Populasi, Ekspor Impor
Kebiasaan Spending,
Saving, Investasi
CENTER OF STUDIES 3B ECONOMICS

Cetak Uang Sebanyak Mungkin?
M.V = T. P
Ketika uang
dicetak sangat
banyak (M↑), dan
kemudian
digunakan uk
membangun
infrastruktur (T↑),
apakah tidak akan
menimbulkan
Inflasi (P↑)?
➢ Betul bahwa ketika jumlah uang (M) ditingkatkan
bersamaan dengan meningkatnya jumlah produksi barang
(Q) relatif tidak akan menaikkan harga. Dikarenakan
kesetimbangan yg terbentuk antara M dan Q (T).
➢ Namun, terdapat Time Lag antara kenaikan M dengan Q. M
dapat ditingkatkan dengan sangat cepat, Adapun Q relatif
lebih banyak memakan waktu.
➢ Lebih jauh, spending M uk infrastruktur berbeda dg barang
sembako. Spending M uk infrasturktur tidak serta merta akan
mendorong supply sembako. Berlimpahnya uang dari
spending M di infrastruktur, akan menyebabkan demand
sembako lebih cepat meningkat. Kenaikan harga sembako
biasanya akan direspon kenaikan harga barang lainnya.

M.V = T. P
Ketika uang
dicetak sangat
banyak (M↑), dan
kemudian
digunakan uk
membangun
apakah tidak akan
menimbulkan
Inflasi (P↑)?
➢ Ketika M ditingkatkan oleh pemerintah dg mencetak uang,
tentu saja para pelaku ekonomi mengetahui kebijakan ini.
Di titik ini, akan terbentuk ekspektasi inflasi masyarakat
(makhluk rasional). Apakah bersikap netral, atau justru
akan mengantisipasinya (adaptif) dengan melepas uang
dan mengkonversinya dalam bentuk benda atau
komoditas lain.
➢ Jika yg terbentuk adalah sikap antisipatif (contoh
menjelang dan saat Ramadhan), maka akan
meningkatkan laju edar uang (V) di satu sisi, di sisi lain Q
relatif berjalan lambat, maka tentu saja hal itu akan
menyebabkan kenaikan harga alias inflasi.

M.V = T. P
Ketika uang
dicetak sangat
banyak (M↑), dan
kemudian
digunakan uk
membangun
apakah tidak akan
menimbulkan
Inflasi (P↑)?
➢ Di sektor non riil, jumlah M yang meningkat tajam
biasanya menjadi indikator dan akan mendorong
tingkat suku bunga acuan akan turun yg tentu saja
kemudian akan mendorong ke bawah suku bunga
simpanan dan pinjaman.
➢ Ketika itu yg terjadi, maka berpotensi terjadi capital
flight.
➢ Capital flight menyebabkan mata uang domestik (Rp)
tertekan alias anjlok (depresiasi).
➢ Depresiasi akan mengatrol kenaikan harga produk-
produk impor.

INFLASI
IHK
INFLASI
INTI
INFLASI
NON INTI
Eksternal
Output Gap
Ekspektasi
Volatile Food
Price
Administered
Price
Inflasi Inersia
Nilai Tukar
INFLASI DUNIA
Penawaran
Permintaan
Impor
Bahan Baku
Produksi
Investasi
Ekspor
Konsumsi
KONDISI
SEKTOR
RIIL
KONDISI LEMBAGA KEUANGAN
Supply
Demand Valas
1. Perilaku Spekulasi
2. Menjaga Kinerja Ekspor Impor
3. Menjaga Arus Investasi
Populasi
Permintaan
Kebijakan
Pemerintah
Penawaran
Produksi
Makanan
Impor
Makanan
Supply
Shocks

Investment Vs Speculation
NO
BASIS FOR
COMPARISON INVESTMENT SPECULATION
1 Meaning
The purchase of an asset with the
hope of getting returns is called
investment.
Speculation is an act of conducting a
risky financial transaction, in the hope
of substantial profit.
2 Basis for decision
Fundamental factors, i.e.
performance of the company.
Hearsay, technical charts and market
psychology.
3 Time horizon Longer term Short term
4 Risk involved Moderate risk High risk
5 Intent to profit Changes in value Changes in prices
6
Expected rate of
return
Modest rate of return High rate of return
7 Funds An investor uses his own funds. A speculator uses borrowed funds.
8 Income Stable Uncertain and Erratic
9
Behavior of
participants
Conservative and Cautious Daring and Careless
Difference Between Investment and Speculation (with Comparison Chart) - Key Differences

Membedakan Transaksi
Riil & Spekulatif
√
Prospek
×
Objek
×
Mekanisme
1 2 3

KEVIN PHILLIPS, BAD MONEY, Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and
the Global Crisis of American Capitalism, PE N G U I N B O O K S, Page. xxv

EKONOMI INTERNASIONAL_ Pertemuan 12_Foreign Exchange & Exchange Rate System.pdf

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