Anirban Basu - Sage Policy Group - Presentation at MEDA 2019 Annual Conference
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Anirban Basu - Sage Policy Group - Presentation at MEDA 2019 Annual Conference
- 1. To All The Economists I’ve Loved Before By: Anirban Basu Sage PolicyGroup, Inc. On Behalfof The MEDA 2019 AnnualConference April 29th,2019
- 2. “There is always somechance of recession in any year. But the evidence suggests that expansions don't die of old age.” –JanetYellen
- 3. U.S. Unemployment&NaturalRate of Unemployment Sources:FRED;CongressionalBudgetOffice,U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Natural Rate of Unemployment Civilian Unemployment Rate ShadedareasindicateU.S. Recessions
- 4. “Nosociety can surelybeflourishing and happy,of which thefar greater part ofthe members are poor and miserable.” –AdamSmith
- 5. Shareof all IncomeHeld by the Top1% in theU.S., 1917-2015 Source:EconomicPolicyInstitute,Authors'analysisofstate-leveltax data fromSommeiller(2006) extendedto2015 usingstate-leveldatafromtheInternalRevenueServiceSOI TaxStats (various years),andPikettyandSaez(2012). Note:Data arefortax units. 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 1917 1920 1923 1926 1929 1932 1935 1938 1941 1944 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 1929: 22.4% 2015: 22.0%
- 6. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jan. 4, 1985: 1,000 April 18th 790 The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea. The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax. Baltic DryIndex 2009through2019 Source:Bloomberg
- 7. “Inflation is the oneformof taxation that can beimposed without legislation.” –Milton Friedman
- 8. GrossDomestic Product 1990Q1through2019Q1* Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis *1st (Advance)Estimate -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 1990Q1 1991Q1 1992Q1 1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017Q1 2018Q1 2019Q1 %ChangefromPrecedingPeriod(SAAR) 2019Q1: +3.2%
- 9. U.S.Industrial Production Index March2010 –March2019 Source:FederalReserve,G.17IndustrialProduction&CapacityUtilization 90 95 100 105 110 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Industrial Production 110.2
- 11. U.S. Job Openings February2001throughFebruary2019 Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 JobOpenings(Millions) February 2019: 7.1 M Openings
- 12. NetChange in U.S. Jobs March2002throughMarch2019 Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Thousands March 2019: +196K
- 13. National Nonfarm Employment byIndustry Sector,March2018v.March2019 Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics -3 43 92 101 110 209 225 246 435 534 545 -50 50 150 250 350 450 550 Information Mining and Logging Other Services Financial Activities Government Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Construction Leisure and Hospitality Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Thousands, SA All told 2,537K jobs gained
- 14. Maryland Nonfarm Employment byIndustrySectorGroups(SA) March2018v.March2019AbsoluteChange Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics -3,000 -2,400 -1,900 300 300 600 2,200 2,300 5,100 12,100 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Mining, Logging, and Construction Financial Activities Information Government Manufacturing Other Services Leisure and Hospitality Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services MD Total: +15.6K; +0.6% US Total (SA): +2,537K; +1.7% *Accordingto the Local AreaUnemploymentStatistics (LAUS) series MD added 18,530jobs between March2018and March 2019.
- 15. Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment byIndustrySectorGroups(NSA) March2018v.March2019AbsoluteChange Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 300 500 600 700 900 1,100 1,400 1,900 2,200 8,600 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Information Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Financial Activities Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Baltimore MSA Total: +18.2K; +1.3% MD Total (SA): +15.6K; +0.6% US Total (SA): +2,537K; +1.7%
- 16. -2,300 -1,300 -900 -500 -200 -200 100 500 1,000 2,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Financial Activities Leisure and Hospitality Government Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Mining, Logging, and Construction Information Other Services Manufacturing Education and Health Services Professional and Business Services Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, MD Metro Division Nonfarm Employment byIndustrySectorGroups(SA) March2018v.March2019AbsoluteChange Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics SS-F-R MSA Total: -1.8K; -0.3% MD Total (SA): +15.6K; +0.6% US Total (SA): +2,537K; +1.7%
- 17. -1,600 -1,600 -1,200 -1,000 -400 0 200 400 1,800 1,800 -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Professional and Business Services Government Mining, Logging, and Construction Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Manufacturing Financial Activities Other Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Calvert-Charles-Prince George’s Nonfarm Employment byIndustrySectorGroups(SA) March2018v.March2019AbsoluteChange Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics C-Ch-P Total: -1.6K; -0.4% MD Total (SA): +15.6K; +0.6% US Total (SA): +2,537K; +1.7%
- 18. -700 -200 0 0 100 100 300 500 500 800 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Financial Activities Other Services Information Professional and Business Services Mining, Logging, and Construction Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services Government Manufacturing Hagerstown-Martinsburg MSA Nonfarm Employment byIndustrySectorGroups(SA) March2018v.March2019AbsoluteChange Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Hagerstown MSA Total: +1.4K; +1.3% MD Total (SA): +15.6K; +0.6% US Total (SA): +2,537K; +1.7%
- 19. RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE % 1 NEVADA 3.4 16 SOUTH CAROLINA 1.4 35 MARYLAND 0.6 2 UTAH 3.0 19 INDIANA 1.3 35 MICHIGAN 0.6 3 IDAHO 2.7 20 NEW MEXICO 1.2 37 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 0.5 3 WEST VIRGINIA 2.7 21 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.1 37 MAINE 0.5 5 FLORIDA 2.4 21 NEW JERSEY 1.1 37 OKLAHOMA 0.5 5 WASHINGTON 2.4 21 NEW YORK 1.1 40 CONNECTICUT 0.4 7 ARIZONA 2.3 24 DELAWARE 1.0 40 KANSAS 0.4 8 TEXAS 2.2 25 ALASKA 0.9 40 MISSOURI 0.4 9 SOUTH DAKOTA 2.0 25 ARKANSAS 0.9 43 MINNESOTA 0.3 10 GEORGIA 1.9 25 KENTUCKY 0.9 43 VERMONT 0.3 11 COLORADO 1.7 25 MONTANA 0.9 43 WISCONSIN 0.3 11 OREGON 1.7 25 VIRGINIA 0.9 46 HAWAII 0.2 11 WYOMING 1.7 30 ILLINOIS 0.8 46 IOWA 0.2 14 ALABAMA 1.6 30 MASSACHUSETTS 0.8 46 NORTH DAKOTA 0.2 14 TENNESSEE 1.6 30 PENNSYLVANIA 0.8 49 LOUISIANA 0.0 16 CALIFORNIA 1.4 33 MISSISSIPPI 0.7 49 NEBRASKA 0.0 16 NORTH CAROLINA 1.4 33 OHIO 0.7 51 RHODE ISLAND -0.2 Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) March2018v.March2019PercentChange Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics U.S.Year-over-yearPercentChange:+1.7%
- 20. Employment Growth, 25 Largest Metros(NSA) March2018v.March2019PercentChange Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,CurrentEmploymentStatistics(CES)Survey Rank MSA % Rank MSA % 1 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 3.7 14 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 1.4 2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 3.0 14 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 1.4 3 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 2.8 16 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 1.3 4 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 2.6 16 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 1.3 4 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 2.6 16 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE- MD 1.3 6 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 2.4 19 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 0.9 7 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 2.2 19 St. Louis, MO-IL 0.9 7 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 2.2 19 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 0.9 7 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 2.2 10 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 2.1 22 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 0.8 10 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 2.1 23 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 0.6 12 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 1.8 24 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH 0.5 13 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 1.6 25 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 0.0
- 21. Unemployment Rates, 25 Largest Metros(NSA) February2019 Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,CurrentEmploymentStatistics(CES)Survey.Note:1.Areaboundariesdo notreflectofficialOMB definitions. U.S.UnemploymentRate:3.8% Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR 1 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH 2.8 12 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 3.8 1 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 2.8 12 St. Louis, MO-IL (1) 3.8 3 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 3.2 15 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 3.9 4 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 3.3 16 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 4.0 4 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 3.3 16 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 4.0 6 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 3.4 18 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 4.1 6 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 3.4 18 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 4.1 6 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 3.4 18 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 4.1 9 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 3.5 21 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 4.2 9 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 3.5 21 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 4.2 23 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 4.3 11 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 3.6 23 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 4.3 12 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 3.8 23 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4.3
- 22. Growth inWages&Salaries Employment CostIndex(ECI),2002Q4-2018Q4 Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics *AllCivilianWorkers 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2002Q4 2003Q2 2003Q4 2004Q2 2004Q4 2005Q2 2005Q4 2006Q2 2006Q4 2007Q2 2007Q4 2008Q2 2008Q4 2009Q2 2009Q4 2010Q2 2010Q4 2011Q2 2011Q4 2012Q2 2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4 2014Q2 2014Q4 2015Q2 2015Q4 2016Q2 2016Q4 2017Q2 2017Q4 2018Q2 2018Q4 ECI for Wages & Salaries 12-Month % Change 2018Q4: +3.0% YOY
- 23. ConsumerPriceIndex: AllItemsLess Food & Energy March2000 –March2019 Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Core CPI (All Items Less Food & Energy) 12-Month % Change March 2019: +2.0% YOY
- 25. Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics Rank Jurisdiction % Rank Jurisdiction % 1 Howard County 3.4 13 Talbot County 4.9 2 Montgomery County 3.5 14 Caroline County 5.0 3 Anne Arundel County 3.8 15 Cecil County 5.3 4 Carroll County 3.9 15 Washington County 5.3 5 Calvert County 4.0 17 Kent County 6.1 6 Frederick County 4.1 18 Baltimore City 6.4 6 Queen Anne's County 4.1 19 Garrett County 6.5 8 Charles County 4.3 20 Dorchester County 6.6 8 Harford County 4.3 21 Allegany County 6.7 10 St. Mary's County 4.4 22 Wicomico County 7.0 11 Prince George's County 4.5 23 Somerset County 8.6 12 Baltimore County 4.6 24 Worcester County 12.1 Maryland Unemployment Rates by County February2018
- 26. MarylandJurisdictions:Population Change April2010–July2018 Source: Maryland Departmentof Planning Source: Maryland Department of Planning Maryland: +4.7% Jurisdiction % Chg. Jurisdiction % Chg. Howard 12.6% Washington 2.4% Charles 10.2% Cecil 1.7% Frederick 9.5% Carroll 0.8% Montgomery 8.3% Worcester 0.7% St. Mary's 7.2% Caroline 0.7% Anne Arundel 7.1% Dorchester -1.9% PrinceGeorge's 5.3% Talbot -2.1% QueenAnne's 5.2% BaltimoreCity -3.0% Wicomico 4.5% Somerset -3.0% Harford 3.7% Garrett -3.2% Calvert 3.7% Kent -4.0% Baltimore 2.9% Allegany -5.4%
- 27. Fastest/Slowest Growing MD Municipalities Population GrowthJuly 2016–July 2017 Source: Maryland Department of Planning; U.S. Census Bureau TOP 15 BOTTOM 15 RANK CITY/PLACE COUNTY % RANK CITY/PLACE COUNTY % 1 Port Tobacco Village town Charles 7.14% 138 Barton town Allegany -0.69% 2 Aberdeen city Harford 3.27% 139 Hurlock town Dorchester -0.73% 3 Henderson town Caroline 2.84% 140 Galestown town Dorchester -0.74% 4 Denton town Caroline 2.29% 141 Vienna town Dorchester -0.74% 5 Brookeville town Montgomery 2.21% 142 Church Creek town Dorchester -0.81% 6 Keedysville town Washington 1.91% 143 Baltimore city Baltimore City -0.86% 7 Myersville town Frederick 1.79% 144 Queen Anne town Queen Anne's/Talbot -0.93% 8 Frederick city Frederick 1.75% 145 Kitzmiller town Garrett -0.97% 9 Middletown town Frederick 1.74% 146 Chestertown town Kent -1.04% 10 Thurmont town Frederick 1.70% 147 Cumberland city Allegany -1.10% 11 Walkersville town Frederick 1.69% 148 Midland town Allegany -1.17% 12 Woodsboro town Frederick 1.66% 149 Secretary town Dorchester -1.17% 13 Boonsboro town Washington 1.66% 150 Westernport town Allegany -1.17% 14 Queenstown town Queen Anne's 1.65% 151 Galena town Kent -1.19% 15 Rosemont village Frederick 1.63% 152 Lonaconing town Allegany -1.23%
- 28. Maryland’s Class of 2026 (5th Graders): English LanguageArts Assessments Source:MarylandState DepartmentofEducation,MarylandReportCard 17.1% 58.8% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Baltimore City Prince George's Somerset Dorchester Wicomico Garrett Caroline Baltimore County Washington Cecil Kent Charles Harford Talbot Saint Mary's Anne Arundel Frederick Montgomery Calvert Allegany Howard Carroll Worcester Queen Anne's % Proficient (Scores of 4 or 5 out of 5)
- 29. Maryland’s Class of 2026 (5th Graders): Mathematics Assessments Source:MarylandState DepartmentofEducation,MarylandReportCard 16.2% 62.8% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Baltimore City Somerset Prince George's Dorchester Garrett Kent Washington Charles Cecil Baltimore County Wicomico Anne Arundel Talbot Caroline Harford Montgomery Saint Mary's Allegany Worcester Frederick Howard Calvert Queen Anne's Carroll % Proficient (Scores of 4 or 5 out of 5)
- 30. Maryland MiddleSchools: %of StudentsAbsentMore Than20 Days 2018 Source:MarylandState DepartmentofEducation,MarylandReportCard Jurisdiction Absent >20 Days (%) Jurisdiction Absent >20 Days (%) Baltimore City 26.2% Washington 11.5% Dorchester 21.3% Caroline 11.4% Somerset 21.2% Harford 10.7% Kent 20.9% Anne Arundel 10.4% Cecil 19.2% Montgomery 9.8% Wicomico 18.1% Queen Anne's 9.3% Baltimore County 16.2% Garrett 9.1% Allegany 15.0% Charles 8.4% Worcester 14.4% Carroll 8.1% Saint Mary's 12.6% Frederick 7.7% Prince George's 12.3% Howard 6.3% Talbot 11.5% Calvert <= 5.0%
- 31. “An economistis an expertwho will know tomorrowwhy the things he predictedyesterdaydidn't happen today.” –LaurenceJ. Peter
- 32. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August2007 throughMarch2019 Source:ConferenceBoard -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 One-monthPercentChange March 2019: 111.9 where 2016: 100
- 33. University ofMichigan Index of ConsumerSentiment 2005-2019 Source:UniversityofMichigan 50 60 70 80 90 100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 April 2019 = 97.2 where 1996 = 100
- 34. NFIBIndex ofSmallBusiness Optimism:Good Timeto Expand 1986-2019 Source:NationalFederationofIndependentBusiness(NFIB) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar. 2019: 23% % of respondents who think the next 3 months will be a good time to for small business to expand
- 35. TotalU.S.Debt Volumeby SelectLoan Types Index1999Q1=100 Source:NewYorkFedConsumerCreditPanel/Equifax 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1999Q4 2000Q2 2000Q4 2001Q2 2001Q4 2002Q2 2002Q4 2003Q2 2003Q4 2004Q2 2004Q4 2005Q2 2005Q4 2006Q2 2006Q4 2007Q2 2007Q4 2008Q2 2008Q4 2009Q2 2009Q4 2010Q2 2010Q4 2011Q2 2011Q4 2012Q2 2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4 2014Q2 2014Q4 2015Q2 2015Q4 2016Q2 2016Q4 2017Q2 2017Q4 2018Q2 2018Q4 Mortgage Auto Credit Card
- 36. U.S. Corporate BondDebt Outstanding,1980-2018 Source:SecuritiesIndustryandFinancialMarketsAssociation(SIFMA);FederalReserve $0.0 $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 $Trillions 2018: $9.2 Trillion
- 37. Global Debt Reaches AllTime Highs (IIF) Sources:1.InstituteofInternationalFinance(IFF),GlobalDebtMonitor.2.BusinessInsider.3.TheTelegraph.4.Reuters. • According to the International Institute of Finance (IIF), global debt reached an record high of $248 trillion in 2018Q1; • At $243.2 trillion as of 2018Q4, global debt—including household, government, and corporate—now represents 317% of global GDP; • In 2016 the IMF warned of risks to the global economy: • “sheer size of debt could set the stage for an unprecedented private deleveraging process that could thwart the fragile economic recovery”
- 38. Economists do it with Models • Much of the negativity reflected in forecasts and in financial market volatility relates to things people believe will happen; • But important parts of the U.S. economy continue to perform well – e.g. consumer, corporate earnings, construction. • What’s more, there is significant upside risk. What if the following happens? Trade deal with China; Infrastructure spending plan with revenue sources identified; Elimination of tariffs on steel, aluminum, etc. & Fed stops tightening. • Hypothesis - 2019 will be decent year for economy, but if we don’t check some of these boxes, watch out for 2020/21!!!!
- 39. Thank You Please followme onTwitter--@sageanirban Please lookfor updatesof informationatwww.sagepolicy.com. Please contactus whenyourequire economic research& policyanalysis.
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Section:
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROU https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USRECQM https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=lyYE Recessions: https://fredhelp.stlouisfed.org/fred/data/understanding-the-data/recession-bars/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USRECQM https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USRECM
- Global Section: No society can surely be flourishing and happy, of which the far greater part of the members are poor and miserable. Adam Smith
- https://www.epi.org/publication/the-new-gilded-age-income-inequality-in-the-u-s-by-state-metropolitan-area-and-county/ Note: Data are for tax units. Authors' analysis of state-level tax data from Sommeiller (2006) extended to 2015 using state-level data from the Internal Revenue Service SOI Tax Stats (various years), and Piketty and Saez (2012)
- Take a monthly average of readings and show monthly instead of daily? (to save space/make it easier for ppt to handle the data) https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND https://www.investing.com/indices/baltic-dry-historical-data Baltic Dry Index. Source: Lloyd's List. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea. It is created by the London Baltic Exchange based on daily assessments from a panel of shipbrokers. The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax. Capesize carriers are the largest ships with a capacity greater than 150,000 DWT. Panamax refers to the maximum size allowed for ships travelling through the Panama Canal, typically 65,000 - 80,000 DWT. The Supramax Index covers carriers with a capacity of 50,000 - 60,000 DWT.
- U.S. Section: Inflation is the one form of taxation that can be imposed without legislation. Milton Friedman
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/ Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=mZsa https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCU
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/ Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=mZsa https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCU https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO
- https://www.bls.gov/jlt/ JTS00000000JOL
- US Total Nonfarm (SA): CES0000000001 U.S. Unemployment Rate LNS14000000
- Series ID are in excel linked to chart US Total Nonfarm (SA): CES0000000001
- Series ID are in excel linked to chart US Total Nonfarm (SA): CES0000000001
- Series ID are in excel linked to chart US Total Nonfarm (SA): CES0000000001
- NOTE: Could we spruce up the table/change the table colors? US Total Nonfarm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
- NOTE: Could we spruce up the table/change the table colors?
- NOTE: Could we spruce up the table/change the table colors? Please make sure all unemployment rates have the same number of decimals (ex. 8.0 rather than just 8) http://www.bls.gov/lau/ Tables: Unemployment Rates for Large Metropolitan Areas
- CUSR0000SA0L1E
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE
- http://planning.maryland.gov/MSDC/Pages/pop_estimate/popest_cnty.aspx
- http://planning.maryland.gov/MSDC/Pages/pop_estimate/popest_muni.aspx
- Section:
- **WILL BE REVISED NEXT MONTH/USE EXCEL DOWNLOAD TO GET PAST FIGURES? *MUST START AT AUGUST 2007 https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1 https://www.conference-board.org/ea/TCB_BE_Portfolio.xls **February 2018: This month’s release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes. The benchmark usually takes place in January but was postponed due to the government shutdown. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made, and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact indicators@conference-board.org. **August 2007-May 2017 % changes are based on data released when the base was 2010=100. June 2017-Present % changes are based on data released when the base was 2016=100. NOTE (CHANGE TO BASE YEAR): ”This month’s release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes was changed to 2016 = 100 from 2010 = 100. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.”
- http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
- http://www.nfib-sbet.org/indicators/ https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/nfib-business-optimism-index https://www.nfib.com/assets/SBET-Mar-2019.pdf *Change the month in the URL to the current month
- https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/databank.html
- https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/us-corporate-bond-issuance/ https://www.sifma.org/resources/archive/research/statistics/ https://www.federalreserve.gov/feeds/z1.html
- IIF Global Debt Monitor: https://www.iif.com/publications/global-debt-monitor 2018 YE: http://files.clickdimensions.com/iifcom-ai7nn/files/globaldebtmonitor_april_vf.pdf https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-15/global-debt-of-244-trillion-nears-record-despite-faster-growth https://www.reuters.com/article/global-economy-debt/global-debt-ticks-up-just-shy-of-record-high-iif-idUSL1N1ZF1KD