Statistics is the study of the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation and presentation of data.  It deals with all aspects of data, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments. Business statistics is the science of good decision making in the face of uncertainty and is used in many disciplines such as financial analysis, econometrics, auditing, production and operations including six sigma, and marketing research More and more data is collected as a by-product of doing business and by government agencies.

1. Statistics

2. Statistics
• Statistics is the study of the collection, organization,
analysis, interpretation and presentation of data. It
deals with all aspects of data, including the planning of
data collection in terms of the design of
surveys and experiments.
• Business statistics is the science of good decision
making in the face of uncertainty and is used in many
disciplines such as financial
analysis, econometrics, auditing, production and
operations including six sigma, and marketing research
• More and more data is collected as a by-product of
doing business and by government agencies.

3. There are three kinds of lies: lies,
damned lies, and statistics.

4. H.G. Wells
Statistical thinking will one
day be as necessary for
efficient citizenship as the
ability to read and write.

5. Artemus Ward
• It ain’t so much the
things we don’t know
that get us in trouble.
It’s the things we know
that just ain’t so.
Charles Farrar Browne
This could be considered
an example of unknown
knowns.

6. Evidence and Reality
As we know, there are
known knowns, there are
things we know we know.
We also know there are
known unknowns, that is to
say we know there are some
things we do not know. But
there are also unknown
unknowns - the ones we
don’t know we don’t know.
Donald Rumsfeld

7. Epistemology
The branch of philosophy
concerned with the nature
and scope of knowledge
and what distinguishes
justified belief from
opinion.

8. Samuel Johnson
Round numbers are
always false.

9. Sir Francis Galton
I have a great subject
(statistics) to write upon,
but feel keenly my literary
incapacity to make it
easily intelligible without
sacrificing accuracy and
thoroughness.

10. Sir Francis Galton
Cousin of Charles Darwin
English polymath: anthropologist, eugenicist, tropical explorer, geographer, inventor,
meteorologist, proto-geneticist, and statistician. He was knighted in 1909.
Galton produced over 340 papers and books. He also created the statistical concept
of correlation and widely promoted regression toward the mean. He was the first to apply
statistical methods to the study of human differences and inheritance of intelligence, and
introduced the use of questionnaires and surveys .
He was a pioneer in eugenics, coining the term itself and the phrase "nature versus nurture".
His book Hereditary Genius (1869) was the first social scientific attempt to
study genius and greatness.
As an investigator of the human mind, he founded psychometrics (the science of measuring
mental faculties). He devised a method for classifying fingerprints that proved useful
in forensic science.
As the initiator of scientific meteorology, he devised the first weather map, and was the first
to establish a complete record of short-term climatic phenomena on a European scale. He
also invented the Galton Whistle for testing differential hearing ability.

11. Statistics
Is the study of the collection, organization,
analysis, interpretation and presentation
of data. It deals with all aspects of data,
including the planning of data collection in
terms of the design of
surveys and experiments.

12. Statistics is closely related
to probability theory
Probability theory starts
from the given parameters
of a total population
to deduce probabilities
that pertain to samples.
Statistical inference,
however, moves in the
opposite direction—
inductively inferring from
samples to the
parameters of a larger or
total population.

13. Reasoning
Deductive
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=ZTfVIMPV8KY
• Deductive reasoning, or,
informally, "top-down" logic, is the
process of reasoning from one or
more
general statements (premises) to
reach a logically certain conclusion.
• Deductive reasoning
links premises with conclusions. If
all premises are true, the terms
are clear, and the rules of
deductive logic are followed, then
the conclusion reached
is necessarily true.
Inductive
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wg-
5LvwBnc4
• Inductive reasoning is reasoning in which the
premises seek to supply strong evidence for
(not absolute proof of) the truth of the
conclusion. While the conclusion of a
deductive argument is supposed to be
certain, the truth of an inductive argument is
supposed to be probable, based upon the
evidence given.
• It is a common fallacy to state that inductive
arguments reason from the specific to the
general, while deductive arguments reason
from the general to the specific. This is
sometimes true (as in inductive
generalizations), but this is not generally the
case, as in all of the other types of inductive
inference listed below (e.g. statistical
syllogisms and arguments by analogy).

14. Black Swan Theory
• The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that
describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often
inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
• The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
• The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are
beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and
technology
• The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using
scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
• The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to
uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs
• Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem," the "black swan theory"
refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their
dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively
play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences. More technically, in the scientific
monograph Lectures on Probability and Risk in the Real World: Fat Tails (Volume 1),
Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as "stemming from the use
of degenerate metaprobability"

15. Black Swan Theory
• http://www.npr.org/te
mplates/story/story.php
?storyId=10300687

16. From the Foot of Hercules
Ex pede Herculem, "from his foot, [we can measure] Hercules", is a maxim
of proportionality inspired by an experiment attributed to Pythagoras:
"The philosopher Pythagoras reasoned sagaciously and acutely in determining and
measuring the hero's superiority in size and stature. For since it was generally agreed that
Hercules paced off the racecourse of the stadium at Pisae, near the temple of Olympian Zeus,
and made it six hundred feet long, and since other courses in the land of Greece, constructed
later by other men, were indeed six hundred feet in length, but yet were somewhat shorter
than that at Olympia, he readily concluded by a process of comparison that the measured
length of Hercules' foot was greater than that of other men in the same proportion as the
course at Olympia was longer than the other stadia. Then, having ascertained the size of
Hercules' foot, he made a calculation of the bodily height suited to that measure, based upon
the natural proportion of all parts of the body, and thus arrived at the logical conclusion that
Hercules was as much taller than other men as the race course at Olympia exceeded the others
that had been constructed with the same number of feet." (translated by John C. Rolfe of the
University of Pennsylvania for the Loeb Classical Library, 1927)
In other words, one can extrapolate the whole from the part. Ex ungue leonem, "from its claw [we
can know] the lion," is a similar phrase.
The principle was raised to an axiom of biology ; it has found dependable use in paleontology,
where the measurements of a fossil jawbone or a single vertebra, offer a close approximation of
the size of a long-extinct animal, in cases where comparable animals are already known. The
studies of proportionality in biology are pursued in the fields
of morphogenesis, biophysics and biostatistics.

17. Big Data
Statistics has many
ties to machine
learning and data
mining.

18. The Signal and the Noise

19. Signal and Noise

20. Curve fitting and over-fitting

21. Professor John Cousins
@jjcousins