An exploration of NLP Sentiment Analysis of Twitter text and a sentiment metric published by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank. There are some correlations but more historical Twitter data must be gathered and analyzed before the validity of any forecasting can be assessed.

1. Matt McDermott
About
Data Scientist, Writer, Drummer
Project Description
● Data mine Twitter for Chicago publications
● NLP clean up & sentiment analysis on Twitter content
● Comparison with Chicago Fed’s CFBSC outlook metric
● ARIMA time-series analysis of sentiment analysis
Email address matthewmcdermott60515@gmail.com Cell number 872-235-9340

2. Analyzing Twitter Data
Matt McDermott
April 2020

3. Question
● Are there correlations between an economic
indicator of business confidence and tweets from
newspapers? Can these suggest they occupy the
same mental ecosystem?
● Can a predictive model be meaningfully applied to
both?

4. Scope
Time Period
● January 2019 - March 2020
● 15 months/5 quarters
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
● CFSBC Survey by Chicago Fed
Twitter Data
● Twitter data from Crain’s Chicago Business,
Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun-Times

5. Data Process
● Twint library (Python)
● Basic NLP clean up
● MatPlotLib Data Viz library
● ADF test

6. Analysis - Crains & CFBSC
2-month lag

7. Analysis - Sun-Times & CFBSC
2-month lag

8. Analysis - Tribune & CFBSC
1-month log, 1 dip

9. Shared Correlation: DJIA
Summer
2019
Dec 2019

10. Predictive Model: ARIMA
Time-Series Modeling

11. Predictive Model: ARIMA
Time-Series Modeling

12. Predictive Model: ARIMA
Time-Series Modeling
CFBSC Outlook metric, 30 months (15 actual, 15 forecast)

13. Next Steps
● Gather more data
○ Go back to 2015 or 2010
○ Include more publications
● Optimize my predictive model
● Further NLP analysis of collected tweets

14. Tools
Python
Jupyter Notebook
Twint (Twitter data mining)
Matplotlib (data visualization)
Vader Sentiment - Sentiment
Intensity Analyzer

15. Data
Twitter
● Crain’s - search term ‘Chicago’
○ 3,500 tweets
● Crain’s - search term ‘Business’
○ 2,145 tweets
● Tribune - search term ‘Chicago’
○ 14,135 tweets
● Tribune- search term ‘Business’
○ 9,486 tweets
● Sun-Times - search term ‘Chicago’
○ 8,129 tweets
● Sun-Times- search term ‘Business’
○ 8,086 tweets
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
● Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions
(CFSBC)
○ https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/index

16. Sources
https://nealcaren.org/lessons/twint/
https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/python-sentiment-analysis-using-vader/
https://stackoverflow.com/questions/39782418/remove-punctuations-in-pandas
https://www.machinelearningplus.com/time-series/time-series-analysis-python/
https://towardsdatascience.com/machine-learning-part-19-time-series-and-autoregressive-integrate
d-moving-average-model-arima-c1005347b0d7
https://www.statisticshowto.com/detrend-data/