Why do attribution models often fail to improve decision-making or inform marketing strategy? Real life examples of bespoke attribution for Travel, Media and B2B Myth Busting: Why do attribution projects often fail? How to overcome common pitfalls in  attribution What are the tangible business benefits of a data-science approach to attribution?

1. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
Attribution Modelling:
Real business applications
that work
@lynchpin @timbushdata

2. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
We help Organisations
Use Data to Make the
Best Decisions
Independent Analytics Consultancy
Consultancy
Analytics
Data Engineering
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3. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
/in/tim-j-bush
Statistical modelling
(Attribution models, lead scoring,
segmentation, predictive models).
Data Scientist
@timbushdata
Now Then
PhD Physics + research:
Mathematical models
of bacteria, the environment
+ of romance.
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4. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
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Myth busting - Common misconceptions about
attribution
AGENDA
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Case Studies:
1. Aviation (B2C)
2. Professional services (B2B)
What is attribution and why do models fail?
Top tips for successful attribution projects
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5. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
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Why do you need an
attribution model at all?
Moneyball:
What is the true
value of a baseball
player on your team?

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Why do you need an
attribution model at all?
Moneyball:
“There is an epidemic
failure within the game
to understand what is
really happening”

7. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
What is attribution?
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How do the different players on your team combine to generate wins?
+ +

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? %
What is attribution?
How do your marketing channels combine to generate conversions?
5
? % ? % ? %
? %

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0 %
What is attribution?
How do your marketing channels combine to generate conversions?
5
0 % 0 % 0 % 100 %
Last
Interaction
Model

10. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
What is attribution?
What is the actual value of your marketing activities?
0%
100%0%
Last Interaction
What is inside
this black box?
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Or a custom model ?
Custom
10% 40%10% 10%30%
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?
Attribution model gives you the
true revenue and conversions
generated by each channel…..
10% 40%10% 10%30%
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13. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
?
Attribution model gives you the
true revenue and conversions
generated by each channel…..
but who really cares?
10% 40%10% 10%30%
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More and more
businesses are using
attribution models…
Econsultancy/Lynchpin survey of
900 analysts and marketers
however they aren’t
sure whether these
models are providing
accurate or useful
insights.
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https://www.lynchpin.com/measurement-analytics-report-2017/

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https://www.lynchpin.com/measurement-analytics-report-2017/
Attribution models are
often ‘black box’
models, that are not
based on facts about the
business.

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Define what your model is for.
Optimising
marketing spend.
Planning
campaigns.
Attributed revenue is only the first step!
Custom Model
Lead scoring
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Attribution models
don’t work for B2B.
Attribution Myths Busted
Can’t Measure
Offline Channels
The technology will
Produce a good
enough model
Can’t get internal
support for (budget
protectiveness).
The TV MythThe B2B Myth The Stakeholder MythThe Technology Myth
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Case Study 1
Optimise Marketing spend on
media and understand which
converted to bookings.
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Aviation Client B2C

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Objective – Optimise digital marketing spend to generate flight bookings.
Flight search Flight booking
Marketing
interactions
?
Marketing spend
Display
Video
Email
Direct mail
Paid Search
Call Centre
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20. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
•
•
Why do you want an
attribution model?
Exploratory Analysis
+ Data Audit
Model Build
Test Plan
Test the model
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Lynchpin approach to this project

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•
• Spend
• optimization
Why do you want an
attribution model?
Exploratory Analysis
+ Data Audit
Model Build
Test Plan
Test the model
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22. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
•
• Spend
• optimization
Why do you want an
attribution model?
• Time to
conversion was
very fast
Exploratory Analysis
+ Data Audit
Model Build
Test Plan
Test the model
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23. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
•
• Spend
• optimization
Why do you want an
attribution model?
• Time to
conversion was
very fast
Exploratory Analysis
+ Data Audit
• A time-decay
based model
that optimizes
spend
Model Build
Test Plan
Test the model
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24. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
•
• Spend
• optimization
Why do you want an
attribution model?
• Time to
conversion was
very fast
Exploratory Analysis
+ Data Audit
• A time-decay
based model
that optimizes
spend
Model Build
• Planned how
to move the
spends around
Test Plan
Test the model
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25. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
•
• Spend
• optimization
Why do you want an
attribution model?
• Time to
conversion was
very fast
Exploratory Analysis
+ Data Audit
• A time-decay
based model
that optimizes
spend
Model Build
• Planned how
to move the
spends around
Test Plan
• Checked the
results, and
modified the
model
Test the model
19

26. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
•
• Spend
• optimization
Why do you want an
attribution model?
• Time to
conversion was
very fast
Exploratory Analysis
+ Data Audit
• A time-decay
based model
that optimizes
spend
Model Build
• Planned how
to move the
spends around
Test Plan
• Checked the
results, and
modified the
model
Test the model
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27. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
A Spend Optimisation Model
Combine spend data with revenue generated
by each channel as determined by an
attribution model.
Model the revenue generated by each
channel as a function of spend as having
diminishing returns (logistic function).
Use this model to make projections on the
impact of future changes in spend.
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Example – Display Non-Brand
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Revenuegenerated
Spend
Display PPC Brand PPC Generics
Results:
1. Clear overspend in Display. Clear underspend in PPC Brand.
2. Re-allocating spend produced clear improvements in both revenue and other KPIs
(Cost per Flight Search).
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Case Study 2
Lead Scoring. Understand which
marketing channel is converting and
who are the best leads within
organisations.
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Professional Services
Client B2B

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B2C Attribution v B2B Attribution
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B2C Attribution
Which Media Channel
Converts And which
segments respond
to which media.
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B2C Attribution v B2B Attribution
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B2B Attribution
Which media converted the
company overall?
Who inside the company
converted and who influenced
them? Internal Discussion
Internal Discussion
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Methodology – Time Lag Fitting
We looked at correlation between
marketing activities and conversions
over time.
Correlation gives the number of
points for lead scoring.
This method can also be used to
incorporate offline channels (TV).
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Methodology – Time Lag Fitting
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Time
Score–Chanceofconverting

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Conclusion: 3 Top Attribution Tips
Define what the attribution model is for, as early as possible.
– Spend optimization/lead scoring?
– What KPIs do you want to affect or understand?
Adopt a ‘Data Science Approach:
– Bespoke models are better than black box models.
– Base the attribution model on insights about your business that are easy to
understand.
– Test rigorously, and improve the model based on the results.
Try to obtain executive sponsorship for digital analytics and attribution:
– The test and learn approach is key to achieving this.
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38. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
Thank You
Any Questions?
Please visit us on POD 8
@lynchpin