2. 2
Acknowledgment
My father Billy Louden passed away on 10th
May 2016 following a 15-month struggle with Pancreatic
Cancer.
Anyone overcome with a sudden urge to thank the author for this report could make a donation to:
www.macmillan.org.uk or
www.highlandhospice.org or
www.mariecurie.org.uk
all of whom helped to look after my father during his struggle.
Rest In Peace dad.
3. 3
Contents
1) Executive Summary
2) Operators in 2016
3) Oil Production in 2015
4) Gas Production in 2015
5) New Fields 2015
6) Field Development Pipeline
7) Declining Output & De-commissioning
8) Company Turnover & Taxation
9) Company Profiles & Contact Details
10) Company Debt
11) About the Author
Page 4
Page 7
Page 9
Page 29
Page 52
Page 52
Page 62
Page 68
Page 78
Page 97
Page 102
Note: Cover photo of EnQuest Producer (Alma/Galia) courtesy of EnQuest
http://www.enquest.com/media-centre/multimedia/photo-gallery.aspx
4. 4
1) Executive Summary
Oil production on the UK Continental Shelf increased in the latest year for the first
time since 2007. Gas output was also slightly up compared with 2014.
Oil production excluding NGLs totalled 44.3 Million Tonnes in 2015, an increase from
37.4 in 2014. Output rose 18.6% in one year with more field start-ups to come.
Gas production rose from 43,322 MMCuM in 2014 to 46,533 MMCuM in 2015 an
increase of 7.4% with Laggan/Tormore’s start-up to come in 2016.
Nexen tops the list of Oil producers in 2015 with output of 5.12 million Tonnes.
Centrica heads up the gas list with 6.678Bn Cubic Metres produced in 2015 including
production from the Rough storage facility.
1,115
11,523
37,267
52,367
76,075
78,615
87,608
100,254
109,437
121,549
122,487
120,943
118,839
109,758
87,245
88,421
87,302
89,441
93,532
115,697
120,195
121,764
120,344
124,215
129,163
118,075
109,522
108,264
99,061
88,715
78,164
70,904
70,965
66,418
63,323
58,924
49,078
42,504
38,537
37,367
44,314
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
UKCS Oil Output (Thousand Tonnes)
1975-2015
Source: Adapted from DECC UK Annual Oil Production (Thousand Tonnes) 01 May 2016 https://itportal.decc.gov.uk/pprs/full_production.htm
88,692
105,046
110,748
116,572
125,024
133,479
130,946
125,418
123,362
113,027
101,148
89,477
82,675
80,396
69,429
67,651
52,070
45,815
43,243
43,322
46,533
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
UKCS Gas Output (MMCuM)
1995-2015
Source: Adapted from DECCAnnual Dry+Associated Gas Prodn sorted by field https://itportal.decc.gov.uk/pprs/full_production.htm
5. 5
The following new fields were brought on stream in 2015:
o PEREGRINE (Nexen)
o YTHAN (Enquest)
o ENOCHDHU (Conoco Phillips)
o GODWIN (Talisman)
o ALMA (Enquest)
o GALIA (Enquest)
o CLADHAN (Taqa)
o SOLITAIRE (Nexen)
Source:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/492019/Fi
eld_Start-Ups_in_2015.pdf
A large number of new oilfields are under development and a number of other fields
have temporarily shut down to enhance or renew their production facilities and will
return to production soon. Oil production was 44.3 Million Tonnes in 2015. The
additions under way target additional production of 47.9 Million Tonnes per annum. It is
clear that, even allowing for natural and normal reductions in flow rates as existing fields
mature & decline, output will rise substantially from 2014’s low point to be 50% higher
by 2018. This is hidden from the public as both DECC/OGA and the OBR are forecasting a
decrease in output over the period. This isn’t credible. Output rose in 2015 but OGA &
the OBR predicted it would fall. DECC predicts it’ll fall again from 2016 onwards.
The above chart shows oil output from the UKCS in every year from 1975 onwards. It
shows the effect of current investment on future production by graphing the projected
output from fields which are in the process of coming online. Even allowing for natural
rates of decline, the increase between 2013 and 2018 will be over 50 percent.
Wood Mackenzie produced a similar projection to the one above. The OGA’s shows a
flatline in output over the same period. This seems impossibly negative. The impossibly
negative OGA projection is the one the OBR use when attacking Scottish Government
projections. The OBR analysis is partial, it doesn’t reflect reality – it’s wrong.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/503852/OGA_production_projections_-
_February_2016.pdf
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
ThousandTonnes
UK Crude Oil Production by start-up year of field
(1975-2015 Actual & 2016-2023 Projected)
Source: DECC Annual Oil Prodn 1975-2015,Company Data 2016-2023
6. 6
The chart below presents an attempt to represent gas production over the same period
as oil, from 1975 onwards. The attempt is somewhat fraught since much of the DECC
information starts in 1995 (the big green slice) when actual production started much
earlier but wasn’t recorded. Reality would be more bell-shaped than what’s here.
Gas is in for an interesting time following the completion of Laggan/Tormore. The Rough
Storage facility is what keeps the lights on in the winter. Centrica has stated that its use
will be curtailed this winter. It isn’t clear what steps are being taken to fill this gap.
The price of Brent Crude fell 47.1% in 2015. By contrast the Heren Energy gas price fell by
20.8% in 2015.
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
ThousandCubicMetres
UK Gas Production by start-up year of field
(1975-2015 Actual & 2016-2023 Projected)
Source: DECC Annual Oil Prodn 1975-2015,Company Data 2016-2023
7. 7
2) Operators in 2015
The following Companies operated oilfields on the UKCS in 2015. Click on the links to find
further details regarding which fields they control:
4 GEN ENERGY
A J LUCAS GROUP LTD
ALKANE ENERGY PLC
ALPHA PETROLEUM UK HOLDINGS
ALTWOOD PETROLEUM
ANGUS ENERGY LIMITED
ANTRIM ENERGY INC.
APACHE CORPORATION
ARDENT OIL
ARENITE PETROLEUM LIMITED
AREVON ENERGY
ATLANTIC PETROLEUM P/F
AURORA PETROLEUM LIMITED
AZINOR PETROLEUM
BAYERNGAS NORGE AS
BG INTERNATIONAL
BHP BILLITON PETROLEUM
BIOGAS TECHNOLOGY
BLACKLAND PARK EXPLORATION
BP EXPLORATION
BRIGANTES ENERGY
BRITISH DRILLING AND FREEZING COMPANY
BROCKHAM CAPITAL LIMITED
BURGATE E&P
CAIRN ENERGY PLC
CALENERGY GAS (HOLDINGS)
CARSTONE EXPLORATION
CELTIQUE ENERGY HOLDINGS
CENTRICA
CENTRICA STORAGE HOLDINGS
CHEVRON CORPORATION
CHRYSAOR HOLDINGS
CIECO UK
CIRQUE ENERGY (UK) LIMITED
CLUFF NATURAL RESOURCES PLC
CNOOC LIMITED
CNR INTERNATIONAL
COMTRACK VENTURES
CONNAUGHT OIL & GAS LTD.
CONOCOPHILLIPS
CORFE ENERGY
CUADRILLA RESOURCES
DANSK OLIE OG NATURGAS A/S
DORIEMUS PLC
DYAS B.V.
ECORP INTERNATIONAL
EDEN ENERGY LIMITED
EDISON SPA
EGDON RESOURCES
EGERTON ENERGY VENTURES
ENCOUNTER OIL
ENDEAVOUR ENERGY
ENEGI OIL PLC
ENERGY RESOURCE TECHNOLOGY
ENGIE E&P
ENI UK LIMITED
ENQUEST PLC
EOG RESOURCES INC.
EUROPA OIL AND GAS
EXXONMOBIL INTERNATIONAL
FAROE PETROLEUM PLC
FIRST OIL EXPRO
FREQUENT OIL
FYRD ENERGY LIMITED
GAS-UNION GMBH
GAZPROM INTERNATIONAL
GROLIFFE
GTO LIMITED
HANSA HYDROCARBONS
HESS LIMITED
HIBISCUS PETROLEUM
HIGHLAND PETROLEUM LIMITED
HOLYWELL RESOURCES
HORIZON ENERGY PARTNERS
HORSE HILL DEVELOPMENTS LTD
HURRICANE EXPLORATION
HUTTON ENERGY LIMITED
IDEMITSU KOSAN
IGAS PLC
INDEPENDENT OIL AND GAS
INEOS INDUSTRIES
INFRASTRATA PLC
IONA ENERGY COMPANY
ITHACA ENERGY INC.
8. 8
JERSEY OIL AND GAS PLC
JAPAN PETROLEUM EXPLORATION CO.
JX NIPPON OIL & GAS
KIMMERIDGE ENERGY MANAGEMENT LTD
KOREA NATIONAL OIL CORPORATION
KUWAIT PETROLEUM CORPORATION
MAERSK GROUP
MAGELLAN PETROLEUM CORPORATION
MARATHON OIL UK LIMITED
MARGIN OIL AND GAS (UK) LIMITED
MARUBENI OIL & GAS
MITSUBISHI CORPORATION
MITSUI E&P UK LIMITED
MOL GROUP
MONTROSE INDUSTRIES
MOORLAND ENERGY
MURPHY PETROLEUM
NATIONAL IRANIAN OIL CO.
NOBLE ENERGY
NORTH SEA ENERGY INC.
NORWEGIAN ENERGY COMPANY ASA
NORWEST ENERGY
OK ENERGY LIMITED
OMV (UK) LIMITED
ONSHORE OILFIELD SERVICES LIMITED
ORANJE-NASSAU ENERGIE
ORIGO EXPLORATION
PARKMEAD GROUP PLC
PERENCO OIL & GAS
PETROFAC
PETROGAS INTERNATIONAL
PETRONAS ENERGY TRADING
PING PETROLEUM LIMITED
PREMIER OIL PLC
REACH ENERGY LIMITED
REACH OIL & GAS
REPSOL SINOPEC RESOURCES
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
SCOTTISH AND SOUTHERN ENERGY PLC
SCOTTISH POWER PLC
SERICA ENERGY
SOJITZ UK PLC
SONOREX OIL AND GAS
SPIKE EXPLORATION
STATOIL ASA
STEAM OIL PRODUCTION COMPANY LTD
STELINMATVIC INDUSTRIES
STERLING RESOURCES
SUMITOMO CORPORATION
SUNCOR ENERGY INC.
SWIFT EXPLORATION
TAQA EUROPA B.V.
TERRAIN ENERGY
TGS GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY (UK) LIMITED
THE CHATSWORTH ESTATES COMPANY
THIRD ENERGY
THIRD ENERGY OFFSHORE LIMITED
TOTAL UPSTREAM UK LIMITED
TULLOW UK
U.K. ONSHORE GAS LIMITED
UK OIL & GAS INVESTMENTS PLC
UNION JACK OIL PLC
VERITAS GEOPHYSICAL
VERUS PETROLEUM
WARWICK ENERGY
WESSEX HYDROCARBONS LIMITED
WESTOIL LIMITED
WINGAS GMBH
WINTERSHALL B.V.
XCITE ENERGY
YORKSHIRE EXPLORATION LIMITED
ZENNOR PETROLE
Source: https://itportal.decc.gov.uk/information/licence_reports/databycompanyandblock.html
46. 46
Change in Annual UK Gas Production (MMCuM) Co Total
Equity Holder (2015v2014)
BP EXPLORATION 904
TOTAL E&P UK LTD 533
IRANIAN OIL COMPANY (U.K.) LIMITED 405
CNR INTERNATIONAL (U.K.) LIMITED 328
ENI UK LIMITED 295
CHEVRON NORTH SEA LIMITED 294
PERENCO UK LIMITED 291
SHELL U.K. LIMITED 223
INEOS UK SNS LIMITED 213
MAERSK OIL UK LIMITED 188
WINTERSHALL NOORDZEE 116
TALISMAN SINOPEC N SEA LTD 100
ENDEAVOUR ENERGY UK LIMITED 98
JX NIPPON EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION (U.K.) LTD 85
APACHE NORTH SEA LIMITED 79
DYAS UK LIMITED 54
SUNCOR ENERGY UK LIMITED 52
SSE E&P UK LIMITED 48
GAZPROM GERMANIA 47
SOJITZ ENERGY PROJECT LIMITED 37
BAYERNGAS EUROPE LIMITED 36
CONOCOPHILLIPS 35
Gas-Union 35
SUMMIT EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION LIMITED 29
MOL OPERATIONS UK LTD 27
ITHACA ENERGY (UK) LIMITED 26
EDISON E&P UK LTD 24
ENQUEST HEATHER LIMITED 15
BHP BILLITON PETROLEUM GREAT BRITAIN LIMITED 15
ALPHA PETROLEUM RESOURCES LIMITED 14
TRANSWORLD PETROLEUM (U.K.) LIMITED 13
MITSUI E&P UK LIMITED 13
MARUBENI OIL & GAS (U.K.) LIMITED 10
EGDON RESOURCES U.K. LIMITED 10
STATOIL (U.K.) LIMITED 6
ORANJE-NASSAU ENERGIE UK LIMITED 5
STERLING RESOURCES LTD 2
IDEMITSU PETROLEUM UK LTD. 2
DART ENERGY LIMITED 1
ECORP OIL & GAS UK LIMITED 1
EOG RESOURCES UNITED KINGDOM LIMITED 0
NORECO OIL (UK) LIMITED 0
IONA ENERGY COMPANY (UK) PLC 0
47. 47
NAUTICAL PETROLEUM LIMITED 0
AURORA EXPLORATION 0
LIVERPOOL BAY LIMITED 0
ENTERPRISE OIL LIMITED 0
IS E&P Limited 0
Northern Petroleum 0
ALTWOOD PETROLEUM LIMITED 0
ANGUS ENERGY WEALD BASIN NO.3 LIMITED 0
BLACKLAND PARK EXPLORATION LIMITED 0
BRITANNIA OPERATOR LIMITED 0
BROCKHAM CAPITAL LIMITED 0
CAIRN ENERGY plc 0
CAYTHORPE GAS STORAGE LIMITED 0
CIRQUE ENERGY (UK) LIMITED 0
CUADRILLA ELSWICK LIMITED 0
DONG E&P Norge AS 0
DORIEMUS PLC 0
DORSET EXPLORATION 0
ELSWICK ENERGY LIMITED 0
ELSWICK POWER LIMITED 0
MONTROSE INDUSTRIES LIMITED 0
MOSAIC (TRISTAN) LIMITED 0
NOIL Energy ASA 0
ONSHORE PRODUCTION SERVICES LIMITED 0
SCOTTISHPOWER GENERATION LIMITED 0
SEVEN STAR NATURAL GAS LIMITED 0
WARWICK ENERGY LIMITED 0
YORKSHIRE EXPLORATION LIMITED 0
E.ON E&P UK LIMITED 0
BRIDGE ENERGY (SNS) LIMITED 0
UK OIL & GAS INVESTMENTS plc 0
NIPPON OIL 0
STAR ENERGY OIL & GAS LIMITED 0
EUROPA OIL & GAS LIMITED 0
TERRAIN ENERGY LIMITED 0
ALBA RESOURCES LIMITED 0
CALENERGY GAS LIMITED 0
EQ PETROLEUM SABAH LTD 0
RIGEL PETROLEUM (NI) LIMITED 0
ZEUS PETROLEUM LIMITED -1
CIECO EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION (UK) LIMITED -1
Antrim Resources Limited -1
EUROIL EXPLORATION LIMITED -1
SPIKE EXPLORATION UK LTD -1
TRAP OIL LTD -1
NOBLE ENERGY (OILEX) LIMITED -1
ROC OIL (GB) LIMITED -1
ATLANTIC PETROLEUM NORTH SEA LIMITED -1
48. 48
PARKMEAD (E&P) LIMITED -1
Valiant Causeway Limited -2
MCX DUNLIN (UK) LIMITED -2
THIRD ENERGY UK GAS LIMITED -3
OMV (U.K.) LIMITED -5
VERUS PETROLEUM (SNS) LIMITED -10
IGAS ENERGY plc -4
MARATHON OIL U.K. LLC -12
DANA PETROLEUM (E&P) LIMITED -16
EDINBURGH OIL & GAS LIMITED -17
BOWLAND RESOURCES LIMITED -17
NSGP (ENSIGN) LIMITED -20
WINGAS STORAGE UK LIMITED -21
NEXEN PETROLEUM U.K. LIMITED -22
FAROE PETROLEUM (U.K.) LIMITED -36
HANSA HYDROCARBONS LIMITED -51
TULLOW OIL SK LIMITED -64
BURLINGTON RESOURCES (IRISH SEA) LIMITED -70
TAQA BRATANI LIMITED -76
HUMBLY GROVE ENERGY LIMITED -82
FIRST OIL EXPRO LIMITED -90
BG INTERNATIONAL LIMITED -127
ESSO E & P UK LIMITED -129
FAIRFIELD BETULA/FAGUS LIMITED -152
CENTRICA -181
PREMIER OIL UK LIMITED -218
GDF SUEZ E&P UK LTD -269
52. 52
5) New Fields 2015
The following fields were brought into production in 2015:
ALMA (EnQuest)
GALIA (EnQuest)
CLADHAN (Taqa Global)
ENOCHDHU(ConocoPhillips)
GODWIN (Talisman Sinopec)
PEREGRINE (Nexen)
SOLITAIRE (Nexen)
YTHAN (EnQuest)
6) Field Development Pipeline
The following fields (both new and existing) are being worked on at present to commence or extend
their field life. An estimated production level is given for each field when production (re)commences
Field Operator
Start
Date
Production
Level Oil
Production
Level Gas
Tonnes/Yr MMCuM/Yr
Cygnus GDF Suez E&P 2016 2,555
Morrone Taqa Global 2016 148,920
Seymour BG Group 2016
Platypus Dana Petroleum 2016 276
Laggan/Tormore Total 2016 5,168
Alder Chevron 2016 372,300 1,124
Conwy EOG 2016 992,800
Stella Ithaca 2016 1,489,200 686
Aviat Apache 2016 0 95
Flyndre Maersk Group 2016 496,400
Solan Premier Oil 2016 1,191,360
Clair Ridge BP 2017 5,956,800 441
Barra Dana Petroleum 2017 992,800
Edradour Total 2017 0 36
Harris Dana Petroleum 2017 992,800
Crathes EnQuest 2017 248,200
Schiehallion BP 2017 6,453,200 913
Kraken EnQuest 2017 1,241,000
Kraken North EnQuest 2017 1,241,000
Scolty EnQuest 2017 248,200
Cawdor Maersk Group 2017 248,200
Orlando Verus Petroleum 2017 546,040
Catcher Premier Oil 2017 1,985,600
Burgman Premier Oil 2017 248,200
54. 54
GDF Suez has developed the Cygnus Field which will come onstream in 2016 and produce 5% of the
UK’s gas at peak production of 250MM Cu ft per day. N.B. Possibly delayed until 2017.
http://www.gdfsuezep.co.uk/our-operations/cygnus.aspx
http://www.ogj.com/articles/2015/07/last-key-structure-sails-for-cygnus-off-uk.html
Taqa Global developed the Morrone field, expected to produce 3,000 Boepd with first oil expected in
the 3rd quarter of 2014 – there’s still no sign of it yet on DECC’s list of field start-ups.
http://www.taqaglobal.com/media-centre/press-releases/2013/16-12-2013?sc_lang=en
Dana’s Platypus Field hoped for a 2016 start. It now looks like 2018 at the earliest, perhaps later if a
deal can’t be done to tie in to local infrastructure. Dana’s Possum Field development is also affected.
An appraisal well was drilled in April 2012, with the well flowing at a rate of 27 mmscf/d
http://www.firstoilexpro.com/assets/platypus-possum
http://www.dana-petroleum.com/Media-centre/Reports-presentations/
Total’s Laggan-Tormore development entered production in 2016 following completion of a new gas
processing plant in Shetland. The fields will produce a small amount of condensate along with a very
large amount of gas to be exported via the SIRGE system. Laggan/Tormore adds 5,168MMCuM per
year to UK production. Dong & SSE each hold 20% stakes in Laggan Tormore.
http://www.total.uk/en/home/media/list-news/total-starts-production-laggan-tormore-west-shetland
http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/laggan-tormore/
http://www.total-icop.co.uk/laggan_tormore/
http://www.laggan-tormore.com/
Chevron’s Alder development is due to come onstream in 2016 tied back to the Britannia Bridge
Linked Platform (BLP). Expected output is 110,000 cfpd gas & 14,000 barrels of condensate per day.
http://www.chevron.com/chevron/pressreleases/article/01132014_chevronmakesfinalinvestmentdecisi
ononalderfieldintheunitedkingdom.news
http://www.chevronunitedkingdom.com/news/latest/2015-07-07-alder-topsides-sail.aspx
EOG’s Conwy field is situated in the Liverpool Bay area and is tied back to the Douglas platform.
EOG state production commenced March 2016. Listed on DECC/OGA start-up spreadsheet 2016.
http://investors.eogresources.com/Presentations-and-Events
http://investors.eogresources.com/download/EOG_0516.pdf
Ithaca’s Greater Stella Area Project has made progress with the Floating Production Facility FPF-1
leaving the Remontowa shipyard prior to installation. Production is scheduled to commence in
September 2016.
http://www.ithacaenergy.com/media/news/gsa-update-0
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/115237/ithacas-fpf-1-gets-green-light-travel-
greater-stella-
development/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EV%20Daily%20Newslet
ter%202016-07-22&utm_term=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter
Apache commenced production from its Aviat gas field in June 2016. This development is to provide
feed gas for Forties replacing diesel to extend field life whilst reducing cost.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/535620/Field_Start-
Ups_in_2016_to_date__July_2016_.pdf
Maersk Group is developing the Flyndre Field which will commence production in 2016 with an
anticipated peak output of 10,000bpd with production tied back to the Clyde platform via Cawdor.
http://www.maerskoil.com/media/newsroom/pages/flyndreandcawdorfielddevelopmentapprovalsuppo
rtsmaerskoiluk%E2%80%99sgrowthambitions.aspx
http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/flyndrecawdor-oil-fields-development-north-sea/
55. 55
http://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/2014/05/clyde-platform-to-host-north-sea-flyndre-cawdor-
development.html
Premier Oil developed the Solan Field and commenced production in April 2016 aiming for 24,000
boe p/d output. Premier bought out co-venturer Chrysaor’s 40% with payment from future production:
http://www.premier-oil.com/premieroil/AR2013/project_studies/solan.html
http://www.heraldscotland.com/business/company-news/premier-oil-increases-exposure-to-giant-
field-west-of-shetland.127851542
http://www.premier-oil.com/premieroil/media/press/solan-update
BP is also undertaking the re-development of the Clair Field with the next phase of field life focused
on Clair Ridge. The Clair Ridge development will have the capability to produce an estimated 640
million barrels of oil over a 40 year period, with peak production expected to be up to 120,000 barrels
of oil per day. 36 new wells will be drilled, 26 production wells and 10 water injection wells to
maintain reservoir pressure.
http://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/print/volume-73/issue-8/north-sea/bp-looking-to-maximize-
production-from-shetland-area-fields.html
Dana Petroleum is developing the Western Isles fields (Barra and Harris) with peak production
estimated at 40,000 boe per day. The project is running 2 yrs late and at least $400m over budget:
http://www.ogj.com/content/ogj/en/articles/2012/12/western-isles-project-offshore-uk-
approved.html
https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/3749/dana-petroleum-western-isles-project-two-
years-late-and-massively-over-budget/
Total’s Edradour Field Development is proceeding West of Shetland with the aim being to tie in to the
Laggan/Tormore infrastructure which is now in place and operational. Dong holds a 25% interest.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/business/13168386.Total_to_proceed_with_the_Edradour_gas_fie
ld/
EnQuest’s Scolty/Crathes Field Development proceeds apace with future production tied back to the
Kittiwake infrastructure. The Crathes well exceeded projections and was on time and under budget.
http://www.enquest.com/media-centre/press-releases/2016/19-05-2016.aspx
BP’s Schiehallion Field West of Shetland will re-start production in 2017. The new KBR-designed
Glen Lyon FPSO is in situ with production capacity for 320,000 b/d of liquids and 220 MMcf/d of gas
and 380,000 b/d of produced water and seawater injection. All the pre-existing wells were suspended
and will all be re-opened for production. In addition 25 new wells (17 producers and 8 water
injectors) will be drilled to significantly increase output.
http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/press/press-releases/bp-and-co-venturers-approve-3-billion-
re-development-of-schiehallion-and-loyal-fields.html
http://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/print/volume-73/issue-8/north-sea/bp-looking-to-maximize-
production-from-shetland-area-fields.html
http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/press/press-releases/new-glen-lyon-fpso-sets-sail-for-west-of-
shetland.html
EnQuest’s Kraken and Kraken North developments are both scheduled to begin production in 2017.
There will be 14 horizontal production wells and 11 water injection wells producing a peak output of
55,000bpd.
http://www.enquest.com/~/media/Files/E/Enquest/2014FYR_docs/14FullYear150318Final.pdf
http://www.enquest.com/~/media/Files/E/Enquest/2015%20FYR_docs/FYR2015Final.pdf
Maersk Group is developing the Cawdor Field which will commence production in 2017 with an
anticipated peak output of 5,000bpd with production tied back to the Clyde platform.
56. 56
http://www.maerskoil.com/media/newsroom/pages/flyndreandcawdorfielddevelopmentapprovalsuppo
rtsmaerskoiluk%E2%80%99sgrowthambitions.aspx
http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/flyndrecawdor-oil-fields-development-north-sea/
http://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/2014/05/clyde-platform-to-host-north-sea-flyndre-cawdor-
development.html
Verus Petroleum (100%) has taken over Spike, who’ve taken over Bridge who’ve taken over Iona
Energy (75%) and Atlantic Energy’s (25%) Orlando Field following Iona’s collapse, targeting output
of 11,000 bpd tied back to Ninian. No update on a 2017 start has been seen. Perhaps there’s no time
with all the deal-making?
http://www.ionaenergy.com/operations/orlando
http://www.ionaenergy.com/investor-relations/presentations/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-24109614
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/66058/north-sea-new-wave-player-verus-makes-debut/
https://newsclient.omxgroup.com/cdsPublic/viewDisclosure.action?disclosureId=714832&lang=en
http://www.petroleum.fo/Default.aspx?pageid=19987
http://www.energy-pedia.com/news/united-kingdom/atlantic-petroleum-sells-orlando-field-interest-to-
bridge-petroleum-167693
Premier Oil will bring its Catcher development online in 2017. As well as adding 40,000 barrels per
day to UKCS output it will provide a new hub for future developments in the Central North Sea.
http://www.premier-oil.com/premieroil/AR2013/pdfs/PO_AR2013.pdf
http://www.premier-oil.com/premieroil/operations/uk
Premier Oil will bring its Burgman well online in 2017 adding 5,000 barrels per day to UKCS output.
http://www.premier-oil.com/premieroil/operations/uk
Premier Oil will bring its Varadero well online in 2017 adding 5,000 barrels per day to UKCS output.
http://www.premier-oil.com/premieroil/operations/uk
Repsol Sinopec is bringing the Cayley (gas) and Shaw (oil) fields into production in 2017 at an
anticipated rate of 15,000 Boepd for each part of the field. The Montrose Area re-development jacket
was installed in 2015 with the topsides leaving Heerema’s Zwinjdrecht yard in April 2016:
http://www.talisman-sinopec.com/en/news/accommodation-vessel-arrives-at-mar/
http://www.ogj.com/articles/2016/04/new-montrose-platform-topsides-leaves-yard.html
Apache’s Callater Field development is under way in the Beryl area targeting 15,000 bpd by 2018.
http://www.apachecorp.com/Operations/UK_North_Sea/NewsAndArticles/Beryl_Field_celebrates_40
_years/index.aspx
Statoil will bring the Mariner Field online in 2018. It will eventually comprise 80 production wells
and 64 produced water re-injectors with a plateau output of 55,000 bpd.
http://www.statoil.com/en/NewsAndMedia/News/2012/Pages/21Dec_Mariner.aspx
http://www.statoil.com/en/about/worldwide/unitedkingdom/pages/mariner.aspx
http://www.statoil.com/en/EnvironmentSociety/Environment/impactassessments/international/Pages/
MarinerAreaImpactasmt.aspx
http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/140060/Mariner_A_Steel_Jacket_On_its_Way_to_the_North
_Sea?utm_source=DailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2015-08-
12&utm_content=&utm_campaign=Production_1
Dana Petroleum has developed the Arran Field. Tieback was to be to BG’s Lomond platform until BG
announced the cancellation of their proposed Bridge Linked Platform (BLP) Project. This has delayed
Arran by up to four years:
https://itportal.decc.gov.uk/eng/fox/path/PATH_REPORTS/current-
projects?PATH_OPERATOR_ID=109
57. 57
IOG has purchased the half of the Blythe Field development block it didn’t own and is working on the
production of a Field Development Plan in 2016
http://independentoilandgas.com/blythe.html
http://independentoilandgas.com/news_detail.php?recordID=94
Total (80%) is developing the Glenlivet Field which will tie in to the Shetland processing plant
developed for Laggan/Tormore. Dong holds the remaining 20%. Target is 21,000 boe per day.
http://www.subseaiq.com/data/Project.aspx?project_id=516
http://www.ogj.com/articles/2014/10/total-to-develop-glenlivet-gas-field-off-uk.html
http://www.total.uk/en/home/media/list-news/uk-government-approves-field-development-plans-
totals-edradourglenlivet-project
Serica Energy is seeking to develop the Columbus Field. It suffered a major setback when BG
cancelled its plan for a Bridge Linked Platform (BLP) for the neighbouring Lomond Field. The Field
Development Plan for Columbus will now be re-written by Serica and its partners.
http://www.serica-energy.com/columbus-3.php
http://www.serica-energy.com/columbus.php
Apache is working on the Corona Field with an estimated start-up in 2019. The estimate is between
5,000 and 10,000 bpd.
http://www.oedigital.com/technology/safety-security/item/12255-apache-moves-on-callater-
investment
Maersk is proceeding with the development of the Culzean Gas Field which will produce 5% of the
UK’s demand at peak production. I’ve estimated this at 250MM Cu ft day.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/140362/GoAhead_Given_for_Biggest_UK_Field_Found_in_
a_Decade/?all=HG2
Ithaca is working on the Harrier development with a plan to enter production in 2016. I’ve stuck it in
2019.
http://www.ithacaenergy.com/media/news/greater-stella-area-development-concept-select
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Ithaca-Energy-Inc-Greater-marketwire-2019147670.html
Statoil’s Mariner East Field will come online in 2019. It will eventually comprise 4 wells with a peak
output of 22,000 bpd when Mariner is producing below its 76,000 bpd target flow.
http://www.statoil.com/en/about/worldwide/unitedkingdom/pages/mariner.aspx
http://www.statoil.com/en/EnvironmentSociety/Environment/impactassessments/international/Pages/
MarinerAreaImpactasmt.aspx
The Cheviot Field developer ATP Oil & Gas (UK) Limited was acquired by Petroleum Equity from
its US parent when this was forced into Chapter 11 Bankruptcy. Moss Maritime's Octobuoy concept
was dropped when late and over budget, a second plan to replace this concept with an FPSO shows no
sign of progression. http://www.subseaiq.com/data/Project.aspx?project_id=1128
http://www.petroleumequity.com/news.html
Chevron’s Rosebank Field was kicked into the long grass due to the very high cost of the
development at a time, prior to the collapse in oil price, when contractors could name their price. It
appears to be reviving with a lower cost plan. Target is still to produce 100,000 barrels per day and to
process 80MM Cuft/day. Exactly when, no-one knows.
http://www.chevronunitedkingdom.com/our-businesses/operated-assets/rosebank/
Hurricane Energy’s Lancaster Field is one of the most promising West of Shetland developments of
recent years. Hurricane suspended plans to farm out the development when it became clear they could
58. 58
raise finance themselves through a share placement. Hurricane is one of few emerging firms able to
access funds in volume at this time.
https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/assets/Documents/ConceptualisingnewInfrastructureHubWoSPDF.
pdf?1432150035
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/downloadpdf/14493/702
http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/hurricane-energy-raises-cash-for-lancaster-drilling-first-oil-in-
2019/
Xcite Energy’s Bentley Field Development remains under huge pressure due to the oil price. Securing
investor cash flow is key. Xcite needs to secure funding before their license expires. An investor with
cash to farm-in is needed quickly.
http://www.xcite-energy.com/assets/bentley
http://www.xcite-energy.com/investors/presentations-and-documents/agm-2016-presentation
http://www.xcite-energy.com/investors/presentations-and-documents/agm-2015-presentation
Statoil has bought out its UK partners in the Utgard Field which lies across the UK/Norway border in
the North Sea. This gas & condensate development will tie back to Sleipner in the Norwegian sector.
A Final Investment Decision (FID) is expected before the end of 2016. Production will start in 2020.
http://www.ogj.com/articles/2016/06/statoil-moves-toward-utgard-development.html
http://www.statoil.com/en/NewsAndMedia/News/2016/Pages/03jun-utgard.aspx
http://www.statoil.com/en/NewsAndMedia/News/2016/Pages/28Jun_utgardtransaction.aspx
Parkmead is looking to develop the Perth oilfield by 2021. It will produce a Field Development Plan
incorporating Perth and neighbouring Dolphin (Parkmead) and Lowlander (Faroe) prospects in one
FDP for better economies of scale in line with Wood Review recommendations.
http://www.parkmeadgroup.com/uploaded/financial/Interim_Results_for_the_six-
month_period_ended_31_December_2015.pdf
http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/parkmead-faroe-in-talks-for-joint-fpso-use-in-north-sea/
BP is involved in some of the largest projects currently under development. Further out in the future is
the Vorlich Field development. A test well flowed at 5,350 bpd in 2014. FDP by yr end 2016.
http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/press/press-releases/gdf-suez-and-bp-discover-new-central-
north-sea-field.html
http://www.woodgroupfrontier.com/case-studies/field-development-options-study.pdf
Antrim Resources has stopped developing the Fyne and Erne Fields where it hoped to produce 4,000
bpd. Wells have been plugged and abandoned. Antrim is looking to relinquish & perhaps to re-apply
for the license.
http://www.antrimenergy.com/files/Antrim_2014_Annual_Report_-_Final.pdf
http://antrimenergy.com/files/Antrim_2015_Annual_Report_-_Final_220416.pdf
Shell Exploration & Production have postponed development of their Fram prospect following
disappointing initial drilling results in 2013. The FPSO was cancelled. There’s been no comment from
Shell since 2013. Perhaps pressure in the well dissipated swiftly leaving no option but abandonment?
http://www.shell.co.uk/media/2013-media-releases/reassess-development-of-fram-field-in-north-
sea.html
http://www.devex-
conference.org/pdf/Presentations_2012/Fram_FDP_DEVEX2012FINAL9_5_12.pdf
Verus Petroleum, EnQuest and KUFPEC from Kuwait are looking to bring forward the Cairngorm
Field by 2022. With EnQuest tied up with Kraken following Alma/Galia progress has been slow.
http://www.kufpec.com/Reports/KUFPEC%20Annual%20Reports/Annual%20Report%202014.pdf.p
df http://www.kufpec.com/Operations/Pages/EMEA.aspx#myAnchor
59. 59
BG group are looking to develop their Jackdaw prospect by 2022. A Final Investment Decision (FID)
was expected to be made in 2017. What the impact of the Shell takeover will be remains to be seen.
http://bg-group.com/343/where-we-work/uk/
http://files.the-group.net/library/bggroup/country_data/downloads/country_uk.pdf
Dana Petroleum hoped to bring the Arran Field onstream by 2022. It suffered a major setback when
BG cancelled its plan for a Bridge Linked Platform (BLP) for the neighbouring Lomond Field which
Dana had hoped to tie in to. No mention of Arran remains on the Dana website.
https://itportal.decc.gov.uk/eng/fox/path/PATH_REPORTS/current-
projects?PATH_OPERATOR_ID=109
http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/bg-wont-build-lomond-blp/
Nexen, the biggest oil producer on the UKCS was seeking to develop their Black Horse prospect by
2022. Seismic on the Black Horse extension was inconclusive and plans seem to have slowed. The
2008 appraisal well on Black Horse flowed through a restricted choke at 5,248 barrels per day.
http://www.subseaiq.com/data/PrintProject.aspx?project_id=967
OMV has secured acreage West of Shetland including the Cambo oil & gas prospect from Hess. No
details of a Field Development Plan or a start date could be found.
https://itportal.decc.gov.uk/pathfinder/discoveriesindex.html
http://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/2014/03/shetland-deal-increases-omv-s-stake-in-cambo.html
OMV also purchased a stake in the Tornado gas prospect. Again no signs of progress were seen.
https://itportal.decc.gov.uk/pathfinder/discoveriesindex.html
http://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/2014/03/shetland-deal-increases-omv-s-stake-in-cambo.html
Maersk has the Courageous Field down for future development along with a sister field Brochel.
https://itportal.decc.gov.uk/pathfinder/discoveriesindex.html
Crosgan is a project being developed by Ineos (75%) the operators of the Grangemouth Refinery in
Scotland. Sterling Resources (25%) is their partner on this project.
http://www.sterling-resources.com/
Keplar is also being developed in association with Sterling Resources. Sterling secured an adjoining
block in the 26th
Offshore Licensing Round.
http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/sterling-resources-successful-in-uk-26th-offshore-licensing-
round-awards/
BP identified Suilven as a field for future development West of Shetland. There has been no update
from BP on this project for several years possibly due to work at Clair and Schiehallion.
http://www.subseaiq.com/data/Project.aspx?project_id=1829
BP still has Alligin as a major project on its Form 20-F in 2014 (Page 26). Now Clair and
Schiehallion are reaching completion this may well gain more attention.
http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/investors/bp-annual-report-and-form-20f-2014.pdf
Shell has the Puffin Field down as a future development. The Fram Field Development Plan (FDP)
shows various wells have been drilled in and around Puffin which seems to have a complex structure
and is part oil, part gas and part condensate in a difficult to drill prospect.
http://www.devex-
conference.org/pdf/Presentations_2012/Fram_FDP_DEVEX2012FINAL9_5_12.pdf
Hurricane Energy’s Whirlwind prospect will proceed to sanction after the completion of Lancaster.
No flow rate has been reported from the test well drilled. A minimal 5,000 bpd is shown.
https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/Operations/HurricaneAssets/WhirlwindBasementDiscovery/
60. 60
Statoil’s Bressay development is in the process of being re-engineered in an effort to reduce the
capital cost. Statoil don’t intend to proceed at present and a platform order was cancelled 31/7/16.
http://www.statoil.com/en/About/Worldwide/UnitedKingdom/UKUpstream/Pages/Bressay.aspx
Wintersall has the Sillimanite Field under development. Tie-back should be to Wintersall’s Wingate
infrastructure which lies just to the South.
https://itportal.decc.gov.uk/eng/fox/path/PATH_REPORTS/current-projects
https://itportal.decc.gov.uk/web_files/ems/2012/Wintershall-ems.pdf
Not Proceeding
Taqa Global’s Darwin development appears to have been dropped following the drilling of a dry well
211/27e-13. Fairfield Energy had 50% of Darwin. Riverstone Holdings were big investors in Fairfield
prior to the well being drilled. Two further wells didn’t result in a decision to proceed.
http://www.fairfield-energy.com/pages/view/darwin
http://www.dundasconsultants.com/files/docs/case-studies/Darwin_Development_Study.pdf
Premier Oil’s Ptarmigan a single well development 15/29a-15 - appears to have been plugged and
abandoned. Premier Oil publications focus on other developments.
http://www.premier-oil.com/premieroil/operations/global-licence-interests
http://www.seafish.org/media/1487961/issue_02_oil_gas_email.pdf
ENI’s Deborah Field is a gas storage conversion of a depleted gas producing field. Consented in
2011, it is reckoned the facility would be able to store 4.6 BnCuM when full. ENI did not make a Final
Investment Decision and never proceeded to develop the field.
http://abarrelfull.wikidot.com/deborah-gas-field
http://utilityweek.co.uk/news/why-do-consented-gas-storage-projects-still-struggle-to-get-
financed/1140372#.V6CvuhKMVHs
Independent Oil & Gas has acquired the Vulcan Satellite Fields from Verus Petroleum just as we
were going to press. Vulcan East seemed to have dropped out of contention for development following
the re-structuring of the old Bridge Energy A/S. IOG intends to produce a Field Development Plan
and will seek to bring Vulcan East, North West and South forward.
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/66058/north-sea-new-wave-player-verus-makes-debut/
http://www.oedigital.com/component/k2/item/12698-iog-acquires-vulcan-fields
Chrysaor Holdings holds the rights to develop the Phoenix prospect. Chrysaor has sold an interest in
the Solan Field over the last year and has also sold interests in Ireland. Whether these adjustments
are positive or negative for Phoenix remains to be seen. There is no Field Development Plan in place.
http://www.bnri.com/documents/Chrysaor_press%20release_2.pdf
http://www.oilandgastechnology.net/upstream-news/providence-announces-chrysaor-acquisition
Premier Oil’s Caledonia field is a watered-out asset the re-development plan is still awaited.
http://www.premier-oil.com/premieroil/media/press/trading-and-operations-update-4
https://itportal.decc.gov.uk/eng/fox/path/PATH_REPORTS/current-
projects?PATH_OPERATOR_ID=94
61. 61
DECC & OGA Contacts
Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics DUKES contacts:
Upstream Oil DUKES Shyam Lakhani Telephone: +44 (0) 300 068 6865
Energy Trends
Oil
natalie.cartwright@decc.gsi.gov.uk 0300 068 5260
Gas
matthew.curds@decc.gsi.gov.uk 0300 068 8414
Petroleum Licensing
Mike Hawkins
tel: 0300 068 6038
mike.hawkins@oga.gsi.gov.uk
Tracy Selby
Telephone: 0300 068 6050
Email: tracy.selby@oga.gsi.gov.uk
Field List
Derek Woolley Telephone: +44 (0) 300 068 5751
DECC field partners and the percentage of their holding
Marcelle Wynter Telephone: +44 (0) 300 068 66057
Well Operations & Notifications System (WONS) - UK production data, Oil production since
1975 and Gas flaring at oil terminals and producing offshore oilfields. Petroleum Production
Reporting System (PPRS)
Phil Harrison Telephone: +44 (0) 300 068 6036
Oil discharged with produced water
Email: offshore.inspectorate@decc.gsi.gov.uk Telephone +44 (0) 1224 254138
UKCS income and expenditure, Production projections and Production (and demand)
projections
Mike Earp tel: 0300 068 5784
UK oil and gas reserves
John Webber Telephone: 0300 020 1041 Joy Gray Telephone: 0300 067 1614
Field Approvals and Field Start-ups
John Webber Telephone: 0300 020 1041
Field and Pipeline Decommissioning
claire.grant@oga.gsi.gov.uk on 01224 254034
claire.thomson@decc.gsi.gov.uk
Guidance on upstream oil and gas infrastructure access dispute resolution
Robert White Email: robert.a.white@oga.gsi.gov.uk Telephone: 0300 068 6056
Environmental and Emissions Monitoring System (EEMS)
The main EEMS help desk is maintained by Collabro:
email: eems@collabro.co.uk tel: 01224 853453 fax: 01224 853429
Gwen Moran at gwen.moran@collabro.co.uk or 01224 853423
62. 62
7) Declining Output and De-commissioning
Until this year Oil Output on the UKCS had been declining since 1999. Gas output also dropped from
its peak in the year 2000 until 2013, it increased in 2014 and is again up in 2015. Oil output is not
expected to rise in 2016 but is about to take off again with the addition of Clair Ridge, Schiehallion
(Quad 204) and Mariner in 2017. A report that Scotland was facing a boom in output was met with a
storm of protest from the Glasgow-based Centre for Public Policy in the Regions (CPPR) who’s
eminence gris John McLaren, a former Labour Party researcher, was quick to damn any such foolish
notion:
http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-economy/7560-cpprs-mclaren-pours-cold-water-
on-scottish-economic-recovery-claims
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-21936723
The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) accepted the Department of Energy and Climate Change
(DECC) projections of future oil & gas output. We might sensibly start by looking at recent trends and
how these are helping to shape projections of future output.
On the chart above can be seen the pattern of change in annual output over the period from 1980 to
2014. The addition of a trend line helps to give some perspective. Apart from a small blip in 2007 we
have seen twelve years of declining output to a greater or lesser extent. In 2014 the decline slowed
dramatically and output rose in 2015. Whilst 2016 isn’t expected to show a big rise, the position for
the following years looks likely to show the significant increment in output we have been predicting.
DECC show no positive increment in output from the record levels of capital spend seen on the UKCS
over the last few years. They are predicting that the decline in underlying output will continue at an
increasing rate rather than slowing the anticipated decline. They also appear to suggest that the
output from new fields and from major re-developments will be negligible rather than
transformational. It is not clear what underlying basis there is for these assumptions. We’re told
basically that “we’ve been right in the past, so trust us, we’ll be right in the future”.
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
North Sea Oil Change in Output
Annual Percentage Change 1980 - 2015
Source: Adapted from DECC UK Annual Oil Production (Thousand Tonnes) 01 June 2016 https://itportal.decc.gov.uk/pprs/full_production.htm
63. 63
For me, what we have to look at is whether the decline in recent years has been part of the long-
term natural rate of decline or if the industry has suffered from events which have exaggerated the
decline in output.
What we can see for oil is that most of the post-peak years have registered a decline in output of
between 5% and 10% with three of the last five years showing figures in excess of this. There has
been:
2012 Calendar Year
Excessive depletion from Callanish and Clair with the Elgin/Franklin debacle costing 2,000,000
Tonnes of lost production. A leak in a pipeline also caused the shut-in of the Foinaven field.
2013 Calendar Year
The suspension of Schiehallion on its own accounted for almost half of the total reduction in the
whole year (45.6%). Clair, Claymore, Magnus, Pierce and Don SW also contributed markedly to the
decline in output.
2014 Calendar Year
The arrival of Kinnoull and Golden Eagle near the end of the year helped the decline in production
fall to the lowest seen since 2007. Production was predicted to rise in 2015 for the first time since
1999.
2015 Calendar Year
The prediction made last year that output would be up in 2015 was borne out. Golden Eagle and
Kinnoull providing a full year’s output added over 3,000,000 Tonnes in the year. Boosts in output
from Balloch and Buzzard also helped as did the Gannets, Pierce and Shearwater. New fields
Peregrine, Ythan and Enochdhu also helped output to soar. On the downside, Jasmine saw a big drop
in output in 2015. We won’t see as much progress in 2016 but output will soar again in 2017 & 2018.
Restoration of output from Schiehallion, the arrival of Clair Ridge, Mariner and Kraken in the coming
years will paint a very different picture.
What has been the position with gas output?
2012 Calendar Year
The big story, as for oil, was the outage at Elgin/Franklin. This accounted for almost half the total
decline in gas from the UKCS in the year.
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
North Sea Gas Change in Output
Annual Percentage Change 1980 - 2015
Source: DECCAnnual Dry+Associated Gas Prodn sorted by field https://www.og.decc.gov.uk/pprs/full_production.htm
64. 64
2013 Calendar Year
This year problems at Sean and Pierce accounted for over 70% of the drop.
2014 Calendar Year
This year has seen a small rise in output for the first time in a number of years. Output from Breagh,
Franklin, Juliet and Jasmine helped in a big way to achieve this.
2015 Calendar Year
West Franklin, Rhum, Shearwater and Brodgar all added significantly to output in 2015. Jasmine and
Morecambe South posted large declines. The gains outstripped the losses. In 2016 we’ll see the
arrival of Laggan/Tormore providing a significant boost to gas supply, with Cygnus following in 2017.
Conclusions
The unplanned outages which have plagued the industry in recent times have started to reverse with
West Franklin and Shearwater boosting output in 2015. Output has started to rise as work to restore
and indeed to improve levels of production nears completion.
Gas output improved in 2015. There will be an increase in output in 2016 from Laggan/Tormore
coming onstream, but Engie’s Cygnus field is delayed and Centrica warns that the Rough Storage
facility needs maintenance and will not be operating anywhere near the level seen in recent years.
As Rough Storage keep the UK’s lights on in the winter this presents a significant risk for UK plc.
Predicting Future Oil Output
Our analysis 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Oil Output k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes
Baseline 44,314 42,039 46,057 57,704 52,342 50,127 51,332
Depletion 4,431 4,204 4,606 5,770 5,234 5,013 5,133
39,883 37,835 41,451 51,934 47,108 45,114 46,199
New Fields 2,820 8,645 17,550 3,041 3,475 6,739 1,924
Depletion 664 423 1,297 2,633 456 521 1,011
Prediction 42,039 46,057 57,704 52,342 50,127 51,332 45,156
Source: Author’s own calculations adapted from DECC UK Annual Oil Production (Thousand Tonnes) 01 June 2016
https://www.og.decc.gov.uk/pprs/full_production.htm
If we start off from the 2015 level of oil output and subtract an annualised rate of decline of 10% per
field (slightly higher than the actual rate excluding shut-downs for planned and unplanned outages)
and we then add the predicted levels of additional output from new fields (factoring in a higher
average rate of decline of 15% for these fields) then output in 2018 will be over 50% higher than it
was in 2014 (37,378k Tonnes).
OGUK 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Oil Output k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes
Baseline 44,314 45,333 47,146 50,222 47,146 44,314 39,883
Depletion 1,137 6,409 13,177 3,484 5,851 10,649 4,901
43,177 38,924 33,969 46,738 41,295 33,665 34,982
New Fields 2,820 8,645 17,969 3,041 3,475 6,739 1,924
Depletion 664 423 1,297 2,633 456 521 1,011
Prediction 45,333 47,146 50,222 47,146 44,314 39,883 35,895
Source: Author’s own interpretation of Oil & Gas UK’s “Activity Survey 2016” http://oilandgasuk.co.uk/activitysurvey.cfm
65. 65
Oil & Gas UK’s 2016 Activity Survey predicts a rise of 13.3% in output by 2018. They looked at oil &
gas together & gave figures of approx 1.5MM Boepd in 2014 rising to 1.7MM Boepd in 2018 in their
“Central Case” scenario. Under their “Worst Case” output would rise from 1.5MM Boepd to 1.55MM
Boepd, an increase of 3.33%. To get to this position the decline rate from existing fields has to be
much higher than it has been historically. As output from new fields is added between 2016 and
2018 the factor for declining production in existing fields has to climb from 10% to 27.9% by 2018 –
the figure of 13,177 shown in the table. This seems very unlikely to me but it reflects the
considerable caution shown by Oil & Gas UK in forecasting future output. In comparison to DECC
however their prediction remains positively sunny.
DECC’s projection from last year is shown below. It saw no upturn coming and predicted a much
worse decline than it had suggested in 2014. I didn’t agree.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/287001/production_projections.pdf
DECC has, reluctantly, had to accept that output rose in 2015. They predict a small fall in 2016 which
I’d accept is possible and then a tiny rise in 2017 and 2018 which seems astonishingly pessimistic.
DECC is saying that Schiehallion, Clair Ridge, Mariner, Kraken, Greater Stella Area, Cygnus and
Catcher will add nothing to output. The truth will out.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/503852/OGA_production_projections_-
_February_2016.pdf
66. 66
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
DECC k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes
Baseline 44,314 42,314 42,814 43,314 41,314 38,314 36,268
Depletion 4,156 7,722 16,172 2,408 6,019 8,264 1,917
40,158 34,592 26,642 40,906 35,295 30,050 34,351
New Fields 2,820 8,645 17,969 3,041 3,475 6,739 1,924
Depletion 664 423 1,297 2,633 456 521 1,011
Prediction 42,314 42,814 43,314 41,314 38,314 36,268 35,264
Source:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/503852/OGA_production_projections_-
_February_2016.pdf
Note: excludes NGL output added to DECC Oil production charts & figures manually by DECC.
DECC’s “UKCS Oil and Gas Production Projections” March 2015 page 1 made the farcical suggestion
that output would fall in 2015. Oil rose by 19% and Gas by 7% according to DECC’s own numbers.
DECC continues to look for a decline over the next few years oblivious to the fields about to come
onstream. The decline in output from existing fields needs to increase from a normal rate of
perhaps 10% to as high as 18.25% in 2017 and to over 37.8% in 2018. This isn’t conceivable or
possible. In our final year the opposite is the case. The natural rate of depletion has to fall in 2022 to
5.29% per cent for the DECC decline to be validated, this is far too low a rate.
This prediction cannot be based on the projects coming into production over the next few years. It is
not possible that all these fields can start producing and for oil output not to increase.
Prediction for Gas Production
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes k Tonnes
Baseline 46,532,701 42,965,796 45,475,512 40,688,569 36,402,650 34,671,311 31,874,764
Depletion 5,583,924 5,155,896 5,457,061 4,882,628 4,368,318 4,160,557 3,824,972
40,948,777 37,809,900 40,018,451 35,805,941 32,034,332 30,510,754 28,049,792
New Fields 2,476,094 8,037,026 1,875,672 878,060 2,768,688 1,779,313 989,750
Depletion 459,075 371,414 1,205,554 281,351 131,709 415,303 266,897
Prediction 42,965,796 45,475,512 40,688,569 36,402,650 34,671,311 31,874,764 28,772,645
Source: Author’s own calculations adapted from Company websites and industry reports.
Predictions for oil are easily found on company websites and from industry sources. For gas the
picture is much less clear. Many new fields give no figure for likely gas production. An accurate
forecast therefore isn’t really possible for gas from public information sources. An attempt is made
above to put what information there is into a table. I’d expect a dip in 2016 due to delays in Cygnus.
Laggan/Tormore will provide a bigger than anticipated boost so the decline may be smaller than
shown. Centrica’s difficulties and potential outage at Rough Storage could in turn make it worse.