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More milk, meat and fish
          by and for the poor

Livestock and Fish CGIAR Research Program
               (CRP 3.7)

               Mark van Wijk
3.7 Livestock and Fish: Aim
To increase the productivity of small-scale
livestock and fish systems in sustainable
ways, making meat, milk and fish more available
and affordable to poor consumers across the
developing world
Themes
• Technology Development: Improved
  technologies to sustainably increase
  productivity and efficiency of livestock and
  fish production (health, genetics, feeding)
• Value Chain Development: Development
  strategies for pro‐poor, gender‐equitable value
  chains for livestock and fish products
• Targeting, gender and impact assessment
Targeting
• LCA’s
• Ex-ante impact assessment across scales
  (livestock
  subsystem, farm, livelihood, community, lands
  cape)
• Tradeoffs between productivity and
  environment
Targeting: trade off across scales/levels


       Community
                             Environment


       Farm livelihood
Targeting: trade off across scales/levels
 Multi-agent models,
 land use models

              Community           rangeland, hydrology,
                                  soil C and GHG models

                                Environment


              Farm livelihood
 Farm models: simulation
 and optimization
Approaches envisaged: heavy computing
                               200



                               180
                                                   Initial population
  N losses at farm [kg] (kg)




                               160
      Farm N loss scale




                               140



                               120



                               100



                               80
                                     0   1000
                                           1    2000
                                                 2      3000
                                                         3      4000
                                                                   4       5000
                                                                             5    6000
                                                                                   6     7000
                                                                                           7    8000
                                                                                                  8
                                                         Farm grain yield [kg]
                                                 Farm-scale maize grain production (t)
Approaches envisaged: more simple modelling
                                        3000
  3 years milk production kg / animal


                                        2500




                                        2000




                                        1500




                                        1000




                                        500




                                           0
                                               500   600    700    800   900   1000   1100   1200   1300    1400   1500

                                                     average grain production over 10 yr run kg / ha / yr
Approaches envisaged: more simple modelling
                                        3000
  3 years milk production kg / animal


                                        2500




                                        2000




                                        1500




                                        1000




                                        500




                                           0
                                               500   600    700    800   900   1000   1100   1200   1300    1400   1500

                                                     average grain production over 10 yr run kg / ha / yr
Approaches envisaged: more simple modelling
                                        3000
  3 years milk production kg / animal


                                        2500




                                        2000




                                        1500




                                        1000




                                        500




                                           0
                                               500   600    700    800   900   1000   1100   1200   1300    1400   1500

                                                     average grain production over 10 yr run kg / ha / yr
Toys are in place, but…
• (rapid) parameterization / model testing
  across sites
• Upscaling/outscaling
• Models good for strategic analyses, but how
  meaningful on the ground
Which indicators?



?
    Y




                  X   ?
Which strategies result in certain
          outcomes?


                       ?
Y




                   X
Which strategies result in certain
          outcomes?


                       ?
Y




                   ?

                   X
Which strategies result in certain
          outcomes?


                       ?
Y




                   ?
         ?

                   X
Where do actors want to be?

          ?
Y




               X
Thresholds?



                  ?
Y




         ?

             X
Alleviation possible?



                 ?
Y




                X
Where does Piet want to be?
Methodologies
technicalities


                             PIET
                         ?

                 Generic discussion on
                 importance of trade offs
Thanks!

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Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 3.7_Mark van Wijk

  • 1. More milk, meat and fish by and for the poor Livestock and Fish CGIAR Research Program (CRP 3.7) Mark van Wijk
  • 2. 3.7 Livestock and Fish: Aim To increase the productivity of small-scale livestock and fish systems in sustainable ways, making meat, milk and fish more available and affordable to poor consumers across the developing world
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  • 5. Themes • Technology Development: Improved technologies to sustainably increase productivity and efficiency of livestock and fish production (health, genetics, feeding) • Value Chain Development: Development strategies for pro‐poor, gender‐equitable value chains for livestock and fish products • Targeting, gender and impact assessment
  • 6. Targeting • LCA’s • Ex-ante impact assessment across scales (livestock subsystem, farm, livelihood, community, lands cape) • Tradeoffs between productivity and environment
  • 7. Targeting: trade off across scales/levels Community Environment Farm livelihood
  • 8. Targeting: trade off across scales/levels Multi-agent models, land use models Community rangeland, hydrology, soil C and GHG models Environment Farm livelihood Farm models: simulation and optimization
  • 9. Approaches envisaged: heavy computing 200 180 Initial population N losses at farm [kg] (kg) 160 Farm N loss scale 140 120 100 80 0 1000 1 2000 2 3000 3 4000 4 5000 5 6000 6 7000 7 8000 8 Farm grain yield [kg] Farm-scale maize grain production (t)
  • 10. Approaches envisaged: more simple modelling 3000 3 years milk production kg / animal 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 average grain production over 10 yr run kg / ha / yr
  • 11. Approaches envisaged: more simple modelling 3000 3 years milk production kg / animal 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 average grain production over 10 yr run kg / ha / yr
  • 12. Approaches envisaged: more simple modelling 3000 3 years milk production kg / animal 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 average grain production over 10 yr run kg / ha / yr
  • 13. Toys are in place, but… • (rapid) parameterization / model testing across sites • Upscaling/outscaling • Models good for strategic analyses, but how meaningful on the ground
  • 15. Which strategies result in certain outcomes? ? Y X
  • 16. Which strategies result in certain outcomes? ? Y ? X
  • 17. Which strategies result in certain outcomes? ? Y ? ? X
  • 18. Where do actors want to be? ? Y X
  • 19. Thresholds? ? Y ? X
  • 21. Where does Piet want to be? Methodologies technicalities PIET ? Generic discussion on importance of trade offs