PolkWP_CC1324F_StrategicQuestionsAutoBusinessPlanners-201212

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. | www.polk.com
Strategic Questions for Automotive Business Planners
WHITE PAPER | DECEMBER 2012

1© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. | www.polk.com
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Whether you are an analyst, economist, investor,
paper provides you with answers to highly relevant
As many original equipment suppliers, vehicle
enter their annual planning and investment cycles,
companies.
and other industry decision-‐
and interpret and apply VIN
, contact us
at www.polk.com
www.polk.com/knowledge.
Business Factor(s) Addressed
1
2
3 Business expansion
4
5
6
and retail planning
7
changed in recent years. What is the impact on auto
8
9
intelligence
10

in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries,
emerging markets (including BRIC countries) will
What to Consider

New vehicle demand growth in BRIC countries will
1
, an amount which is

emerging markets while increases in developed
emerging markets (including BRIC countries)
volume growth. The segments most likely to
realize growth in emerging markets are small
emerging markets in the next 10 years.

Mercedes-‐Benz.
While the BRIC countries represent the greatest

Impact

in emerging markets such as China at the expense
quality vehicles.
Increasingly, vehicles sold in emerging markets

strategies to target emerging markets as their

grew in mature Western markets over the past
two decades.
Increasingly, new vehicle development and
processes as a means to leverage niche strengths
1
1
38.0%
Global Growth
Emerging
Markets
BRIC
*
15.0%
CTG*
85.0%
CTG*
63.4%
CTG*
Mature
Market
Market Share for
BMW and Mercedes-‐
Benz Among Emerging
Markets

vehicle growth and it will remain the largest and
What to Consider

in 2011 sales dropped to a mere 1 percent growth

inner provinces.

The Chinese market remains extremely
2020.
Impact
Automakers and suppliers with Chinese

impact segment demand. For example, the
capacity.

plants in countries like Brazil, Russia, Bulgaria or
Turkey, Chinese automakers will strengthen their

already made an impact on many products in the
2

Brazil
China
India
Russia
Outlook for China

What to Consider

assigns quotas to every company that wants to
import vehicles to Venezuela and also limits the
Chávez sympathizes with, such as China and Iran.
with governmental approval.

Venezuela.

and conduct research and development in Brazil.

sold in Chile thanks to several trade agreements.

3

The recent Mexican electoral campaign was
cartel leaders. Peña Nieto also promised to hire Óscar
What to Consider

linked to authoritarian and corrupt governments

2012.
Impact
OEMs:
Americas and Europe. The current scenario is likely
Suppliers
agreement with Brazil, Mexico must increase the
Polk expects Mexico to reach the 1 million vehicle
years to come.
What to Consider
Car sales in Western Europe (W.E.) will realize
schemes.
Central and Eastern Europe (C.E.E.) will likely
C.E.E. will struggle to realize sales volumes in

4 What can change in Mexico with the new
5
What is the outlook for the European
Figure 8: Wholesale

Impact
experiencing recovery in 2012, European results
Three-‐Scenario Outlook
Base scenario:
markets to decline, however at a slower pace than

Worst case scenario
What to Consider

Despite the annual growth rate, the impact on
small.

6
What are the current trends in powertrain


period.
Impact

Unless consumer acceptance increases or
slow to make a major impact on total vehicles
electric vehicles). At this point, such powertrains
typically come at a premium cost. As a result,

much quicker and parts and service providers
What to Consider
Vehicle quality has improved, which has extended

environment. Higher credit score requirements
vehicle prices, have undermined new sales growth.
7

Impact

presents challenges to suppliers who are required
require suppliers to order and inventory chips
What to Consider

Union.
Canada, on the other hand, has lost its share

For example, in the year 2000, the Detroit Three
reduce their exposure to currency exchange rate

8

Impact

responding to the mantra “never let a crisis go to
As a result, many automakers and suppliers are
decades.

demand-‐driven growth as automakers have
Gradual volume growth versus spikes in demand

automakers with goals to expand market share
loyalty metrics.
What to Consider

owns a vehicle has an adverse impact on

that over 100 new vehicle launches and major
Impact

product planning (e.g., “what do my customers
among customers using the dealership’s service
9


Most vehicles on the road have oil service indicator
lights to alert the driver that an oil change is needed.
the reminder light is the only
maintenance needs without the driver having to
as this community heavily relies on maintenance
What to Consider

and Canada over the past decade.

2011 model year vehicles.
While slightly lower in Canada, the use
comparing 2000 to 2011 model year vehicles.
Impact

when directly reminded via in-‐vehicle alerts.

providing oil change services who also depend on
changed.

repair shops will have to work more diligently and
10

Polk is the premier provider
Polk
data, and provides extensive
help customers understand their
agencies and market research
Australia, Canada, China, France,

www.polk.com.
About Polk
in the light-‐, medium-‐ and heavy-‐duty categories, we
provides independent research, insights and
analyses and insight needed to get a clear picture
on helping our clients retain their customers through

PolkWP_CC1324F_StrategicQuestionsAutoBusinessPlanners-201212

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