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The Opportunity The Reconstruction  Of Sarasota County Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP Director, Metropolitan Institute Virginia Tech – Alexandria Center April 15, 2008
Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Themes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
America Grows ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Getting Ahead of the Curve ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Residential Development ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Nonresidential Development ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Life-Span of Building Function Source : Arthur C. Nelson, Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech based on DoE Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey.
Bottom Line New Construction 2000-2040 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How Does It Change?
What is the Resale Market  Telling Us? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Emerging Resale Price Evidence   Trends During 2007 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sale Price Trends Sarasota Co. Source:  http://www.sarasotarealtors.com/  accessed April 10, 2008.
“ Traditional” Households on the Wane – National Household Type   1960   2000   2040 HH with Children   48%   33%   28% HH without Children  52%  67%  72% Single-Person HH   13%   27%   29% Source : Arthur C. Nelson, Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech.
People Turning 65  Each  Year [Figures in 000s] Source:  US Census Bureau  – 65+ in the United States: 2005;  Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, & Kimberly A DeBarros.  December 2005 .
Share of Growth 2000-2040 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Futurists Tell Us ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Neighborhood Feature Preferences Source :  National Association of Realtors, American Preference Survey 2004.
Unmet  Walkable  Demand ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Retired Location Preference ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Housing Type Choices of Seniors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Buy-Sell Rates by Age Cohort Source:  Dowell Myers & SungHo Ryu, “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition”,  Journal of the American Planning Association  74(1): 1-17 (2007).
Source:  Dowell Myers & SungHo Ryu, “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition”,  Journal of the American Planning Association  74(1): 1-17 (2007). Figures for net buying or selling rate at age 65 – point of life cycle transition to selling. Net Buying or Selling Rates at Age 65 Sell Buy WEST MIDWEST SOUTH NORTHEAST
Housing Preference Surveys by Type, 1995-2004 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Large-Lot Oversupply 2030  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Unmet Smart Growth Demand ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Opportunity The New Promise Land?
Tear Up a Parking Lot, Rebuild Paradise ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Actions Needed ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
Sarasota County Parking Lot Building Capacity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FAR @ about 1.50    2-3 level
Invest Where People Want to Be ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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Nelson sarasota 4-15-08

  • 1. The Opportunity The Reconstruction Of Sarasota County Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP Director, Metropolitan Institute Virginia Tech – Alexandria Center April 15, 2008
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.  
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. Life-Span of Building Function Source : Arthur C. Nelson, Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech based on DoE Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey.
  • 10.
  • 11. How Does It Change?
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. Sale Price Trends Sarasota Co. Source: http://www.sarasotarealtors.com/ accessed April 10, 2008.
  • 15. “ Traditional” Households on the Wane – National Household Type 1960 2000 2040 HH with Children 48% 33% 28% HH without Children 52% 67% 72% Single-Person HH 13% 27% 29% Source : Arthur C. Nelson, Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech.
  • 16. People Turning 65 Each Year [Figures in 000s] Source: US Census Bureau – 65+ in the United States: 2005; Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, & Kimberly A DeBarros. December 2005 .
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. Neighborhood Feature Preferences Source : National Association of Realtors, American Preference Survey 2004.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. Buy-Sell Rates by Age Cohort Source: Dowell Myers & SungHo Ryu, “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition”, Journal of the American Planning Association 74(1): 1-17 (2007).
  • 24. Source: Dowell Myers & SungHo Ryu, “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition”, Journal of the American Planning Association 74(1): 1-17 (2007). Figures for net buying or selling rate at age 65 – point of life cycle transition to selling. Net Buying or Selling Rates at Age 65 Sell Buy WEST MIDWEST SOUTH NORTHEAST
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29. The Opportunity The New Promise Land?
  • 30.
  • 31.  
  • 32.
  • 33.  
  • 34.  
  • 35.
  • 36. FAR @ about 1.50  2-3 level
  • 37.

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. This slide has many elements of new urbanist design in it: transit-oriented development, mixed use, and dense infills So that there is room for parks and other greenspaces. Notice the single-family homes beyond the main street, so the housing is meant to invoke the possibilities of different types of families. http://www.cnu.org/resources/index.cfm?formAction=image_bank_detail&imagebank_id=690&CFID=7218897&CFTOKEN=70542539
  2. This slide has many elements of new urbanist design in it: transit-oriented development, mixed use, and dense infills So that there is room for parks and other greenspaces. Notice the single-family homes beyond the main street, so the housing is meant to invoke the possibilities of different types of families. http://www.cnu.org/resources/index.cfm?formAction=image_bank_detail&imagebank_id=690&CFID=7218897&CFTOKEN=70542539