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What is the
future of In-store
     Brand,
 Performance &
   Consumer
   Behaviour?

 September 2011

  Presented by
 Gareth Pearson
  BMI Research
                1
South Africa’s GDP

                                 GDP % Change



 7.0% 5.1% 5.5%                                       4.8%             4.8%
                       3.7%                  3.2%         2.8% 4.5%2.8%
 4.5%     2.5%                                               2.7%
               1.3%                      0.9%
 2.0%
-0.5%
-3.0%             -0.7%
                                    -2.8%        -1.8%
-5.5%
                     -7.4%
-8.0%




       Source: SARB
       Note: Percentage change at seasonally adjusted annualized rates


                                                                              2
South Africa’s Retail Sales

Year-on-Year % Retail Sales at constant 2008 prices

   Q4                                                                           7.7%
                     -3.4%
                                 -0.4%


   Q3                                                                    6.2%
                     -3.3%
                               -1.0%


   Q2                                                             4.9%
            -5.4%
                                                0.4%

                                                                    5.6%
   Q1                                             1.3%
                        -2.4%
                                                         2.3%

    -8.0%    -6.0%     -4.0%    -2.0%    0.0%     2.0%     4.0%    6.0%    8.0%    10.0%


                             2011       2010           2009       2008
                               Source: Stats SA
                         % change y/y at constant 2008 prices

                                                                                           3
Our Shopper- recession
                                          impact


•   tighter family income vs. continued inflation
•   seeking VALUE from retailers and wholesalers
    with intensity and vigour
•   convenience has a price
•   consumers are drinking & eating more @home
•   price point centric – reduce pack sizes
•   down trading : premium – mid – econo
•   focus on promotional purchases

                                                    4
Our Retailers- recession
                                             impact


•   offering longer print promotions
•   offering 3 for 2’s and value promotions
•   much more effort on price competitiveness
•   focusing on optimising product ranging
•   focus on promotions – wider use by all retailers




                                                       5
So what’s new?




            6
Retail Shelf – the
    battleground




                 7
Case Study- shelf health for
                                                soap


•   forward share
•   promotional spend
•   in store promotions
•   regional share




                                                    8
% Share of Shelf
                                                     Total
35.00%



30.00%



25.00%



20.00%


                                                            2011Q1
15.00%
                                                            2011Q2
                                                            2011Q3
10.00%



5.00%



0.00%
          Brand A   Brand B   Brand C   Brand D   Brand E
 2011Q1   20.65%     6.35%    26.22%    14.95%    31.83%
 2011Q2   18.22%     6.28%    27.55%    15.20%    32.75%
 2011Q3   21.14%    6.58%     26.61%    13.77%    31.90%
                                                              9
No. of Ad’s Total

 900


 800


 700


 600


 500

                                                           2011Q1
 400
                                                           2011Q2

 300                                                       2011Q3


 200


 100


   0
         Brand A   Brand B   Brand C   Brand D   Brand E
2011Q1     803       268       536       801       801
2011Q2     764       255       510       765       765
2011Q3    778       259       518       777       777
                                                            10
% Share of Display
                                                     Total
35.00%


30.00%


25.00%


20.00%

                                                             2011Q1
15.00%
                                                             2011Q2
                                                             2011Q3
10.00%


 5.00%


 0.00%
          Brand A   Brand C   Brand D    Brand E   Brand B
 2011Q1   20.00%    24.62%    18.46%     23.08%    13.85%
 2011Q2   29.41%    19.12%    17.65%     22.06%    11.76%
 2011Q3   31.25%    22.50%    15.00%     25.00%    6.25%
                                                              11
No of Type of Display
                                                                                 Total
    10

     9

     8

     7

     6

     5

     4                                                                                               Dump Bin
                                                                                                     FSU
     3
                                                                                                     GE
     2

     1

     0
         2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q
           1     2     3     1     2     3     1     2     3     1     2     3     1     2     3
              Brand A           Brand C           Brand D           Brand E           Brand B
Dump Bin   2     3     4           2                       1     2     2     3
FSU        1     3     5     2                 1           1     3     1     1     1
GE               4     1     5     3     7     3     2     2     5     3     9     3     2     3
                                                                                                     12
Share of Shelf by Region

        40.00%
        35.00%
        30.00%
        25.00%
        20.00%                                                       E Cape - 2011Q1
        15.00%                                                       E Cape - 2011Q2
        10.00%
         5.00%                                                       E Cape - 2011Q3
         0.00%
                   Brand A   Brand B   Brand C   Brand D   Brand E   FS - 2011Q1
E Cape - 2011Q1    18.93%     4.12%    27.39%    16.86%    32.70%
                                                                     FS - 2011Q2
E Cape - 2011Q2    16.18%     3.78%    30.57%    16.13%    33.35%
                                                                     FS - 2011Q3
E Cape - 2011Q3    18.63%     4.88%    28.12%    14.35%    34.02%
                                                                     Gauteng - 2011Q1
FS - 2011Q1        23.02%     7.09%    23.61%    13.84%    32.43%
FS - 2011Q2        22.06%    7.11%     25.71%    12.78%    32.35%    Gauteng - 2011Q2
FS - 2011Q3        24.36%    8.02%     24.31%    14.44%    28.87%    Gauteng - 2011Q3
Gauteng - 2011Q1   21.61%    7.17%     25.70%    14.07%    31.44%    KZN - 2011Q1
Gauteng - 2011Q2   18.47%    7.06%     26.88%    14.70%    32.89%    KZN - 2011Q2
Gauteng - 2011Q3   21.66%    7.37%     25.87%    12.28%    32.82%    KZN - 2011Q3
KZN - 2011Q1       23.00%    8.34%     22.18%    15.50%    30.98%
                                                                     W Cape - 2011Q1
KZN - 2011Q2       20.79%    8.19%     24.33%    14.59%    32.10%
                                                                     W Cape - 2011Q2
KZN - 2011Q3       26.62%    7.91%     24.94%    13.90%    26.63%
W Cape - 2011Q1    17.42%    4.95%     30.05%    15.43%    32.14%    W Cape - 2011Q3
W Cape - 2011Q2    16.21%    5.29%     29.02%    17.15%    32.33%
W Cape - 2011Q3    17.52%    4.97%     28.83%    16.25%    32.42%
                                                                             13
Share of Shelf PnP
35.00%


30.00%


25.00%


20.00%

                                                            2011Q1
15.00%
                                                            2011Q2
                                                            2011Q3
10.00%


 5.00%


 0.00%
          Brand A   Brand B   Brand C   Brand D   Brand E
 2011Q1   20.80%     7.50%    24.48%    15.23%    31.99%
 2011Q2   18.44%     7.28%    26.76%    14.79%    32.73%
 2011Q3   21.73%     7.27%    24.83%    14.39%    31.77%
                                                              14
Share of Shelf Shoprite

40.00%


35.00%


30.00%


25.00%


20.00%
                                                                2011Q1
                                                                2011Q2
15.00%
                                                                2011Q3

10.00%


 5.00%


 0.00%
          Brand A   Brand B   Brand C       Brand D   Brand E
 2011Q1   18.93%     4.74%    24.38%        15.77%    36.18%
 2011Q2   17.95%    4.91%     27.47%        14.89%    34.78%
 2011Q3   19.86%    4.78%     28.66%        14.23%    32.47%      15
Share of Shelf Spar

35.00%


30.00%


25.00%


20.00%

                                                            2011Q1
15.00%
                                                            2011Q2
                                                            2011Q3
10.00%


5.00%


0.00%
          Brand A   Brand B   Brand C   Brand D   Brand E
 2011Q1   23.38%     9.05%    27.17%     9.70%    30.69%
 2011Q2   18.15%     9.67%    28.46%    10.99%    32.73%
 2011Q3   22.66%     8.99%    29.71%     9.05%    29.60%

                                                                 16
In store Brand Performance
                                            Dash Board – Brand "A"
                                                             August 2011

                                       MONTHLY        YTD         MONTHLY   YTD
       IN STORE KPI Brand “A”           SCORE        SCORE         TARGET TARGET
OOS (2 observations)                   (480/600)   (3960/4800)
Organogram compliance                  (272/300)   (2176/2400)
In store promotional - Gondola
End                                    (255/300)   (2284/2400)
In store promotional - Dump Bin        (290/300)   (1921/2400)
Shelf quality (eye level, category)    (180/300)   (1760/2400)
Forward share %                          (35%)        (38%)

Shelf exposure (cm)                   (8180/9000) (61200/72000)




                                                                             17
Shelf Health Check
                                                                    Store 321 (12 - 17 September)

                                                                                                                                                    Correct
                                                                                   # Total                                 Drop : Shelf
                          Drop 1 , Shelf 5                          # HFacings                  # VFacings     # Stock                  Shelf #   Placement:
                                                                                   Facings                                  Position
                                                                                                                                                      y/n


6001049110518   BRAND "A" PROCESSED CHEESE SLICES SWEETMILK 400GR       1              1             1            24            1             5       N


6001049110495   BRAND "A" CHEDDAR SLICES 400GR                                         1                          29            1             5       N


6001049110457   BRAND "A" CHEDDAR SLICES 400GR                                         1                          23            1             5       N


6001049110471   BRAND "A" PROCESSED CHEESE SLICES BILTON 400GR                         2                          30            1             5       N


6001180066767   BRAND "B" BIG EASY SLICE


6001180633783   BRAND "B" SINGLES 200GR                                 1              1             1            18            1             5       N


600104110556    BRAND "A" BILTONG 200GR                                 2              3             2            56            1             5       N


6001049110570   BRAND "A" WITH CHEDDAR                                  2              2             1            45            1             5       N




                                    # HFacings                              Number of Horizontal Facings touching Shelf
                                    # Total Facings                         Number of Total Facings
                                    # Stock                                 Complete Physical Count of prd
                                                                            Forward Share Prd start to Prd end, measurement
                                    Fwd Share                               (cm's)
                                    Drop : Shelf Position                   Drop 1 furthest to the left = 1
                                    Shelf #                                 Shelf 1 = Top Shelf of Drop for majority or first if a few
                                    Correct Placement: y/n                  if 1 prd is out of line mark as No

                                                                                                                                                          18
Merchandising
                                             Performance

OOS
• costs retailers (4% of annual revenue) & manufacturers(2.5%)
• 30% between factory and store site
• 70% between store stock to shelf (50 m)
      • data accuracy
      • inaccurate forecasting
      • ordering
• shelf capacity and shelf management are pivotal to success




                                                             19
Merchandising
                                           Performance….

OOS Consequences
• OOS translates to
      • brand substitution
      • cancel purchase
      • buy from another store
• repeated OOS experiences negatively impact brand equity
  (product and store)
• labour cost, shoppers seeking assistance from packers
• effective execution throughout chain is essential
• impartial tracking and management can translate to significant
  upside
• real time dashboard to monitor merchandisers

                                                             20
Pricing Strategy


           Promotional
             Pricing



High Low                 Regional
                          Pricing



             EDLP
                                    21
EDLP


•   promising shoppers low price on selected
    items without the need to wait for sale price
    events or comparison shop
•   premise is that shopper loyalty is developed
•   saves retailer effort and expense of marking
    prices down
                 Source: Wikipedia




                                                    22
High Low


•   products offered are regularly priced higher
    than competitors
•   lower promotional prices are targeted to
    increase footfall
•   shoppers then offered these and other higher
    prices products
                Source: Wikipedia




                                               23
Pricing Strategy

•   tactically important to monitor weekly
•   monitor competitors in store pricing and own
    (compliance)
•   introduce promotional pricing when
    appropriate
•   react tactically and strategically
•   use science and available intel



                                               24
Promotional Pricing –
                                                                 August 2011


                                                                          Coca Cola Coke 2L
               Clover Fresh Milk 2L
                                                                              Promotion     RSP
                   Promotion     RSP                          0%
   12%                                     3%                                                      -8%
                      8%
                                                                    R 12.99

     R 16.77                                R 17.49       R 12.99
                                                                                          R 12.99 R 11.99
                                       R 16.99
R 14.99                R 13.99
                  R 12.99


   CHECKERS           SHOPRITE         CAMBRIDGE FOODS        METRO HYPER                   PICK N PAY FAMILY
   HYPERAMA                                                                                   SUPERMARKET
   COMBINED




                                                                                                            25
Promotional Pricing –
                                                               August 2011


          ACE Super Maize Meal 5kg                                Black Cat Peanut Butter 400g
                   Promotion     RSP                                       Promotion     RSP
                                                                              8%
                                                           12%                                     3%
    0%
                       3%
                                            0%

     R 23.99                                                 R 16.77                                R 17.49
                                             R 20.99                                           R 16.99
R 23.99
                                       R 20.99          R 14.99
                       R 21.64
                                                                               R 13.99
                  R 20.99                                                R 12.99

 FRUIT-VEG CITY         SPAR                MAKRO          CHECKERS          SHOPRITE      CAMBRIDGE FOODS
                                                           HYPERAMA
                                                           COMBINED




                                                                                                              26
Promotional Pricing –
                                                                 August 2011



           Selati White Sugar 2.5kg                                    Five Roses Teabags 100
                 Promotion      RSP                                       Promotion     RSP
    3%               1%                   0%                                 9%
                                                            7%                                    4%



     R 18.49                                R 19.99          R 19.27          R 21.87              R 19.73
                                      R 19.99                                                 R 18.95
                      R 18.08                                            R 19.99
R 17.99                                                 R 17.99
                R 17.99


   CHECKERS         SHOPRITE           FRUIT-VEG CITY       SHOPRITE         PICK N PAY             SPAR
   HYPERAMA                                                                HYPERMARKET
   COMBINED




                                                                                                             27
Promotions –offering value


•   correct products - basket
•   3 for 2 Options
•   combo deals




                                                 28
Shopper vs. Consumer


•   consumer - exposed to holistic, multi-layered
    communication
•   shopper – exposed to rapid communication and transitory,
    relying on visuals & symbols
•   consumer is integral to consumption, driving awareness and
    visibility, triggering brand identity & communicating specific
    message
•   shopper communication can be used to elicit and support
    brand equity
•   POS signs, displays, in store media are unique to retail




                                                                     29
Types of Shoppers




               30
Future Consumer


•   rising inflation constrained by tighter family
    income
•   access to more data to support better
    purchase decisions
•   seeking value through promotions and value
    buying
•   brand stakeholder - SMR
•   once in store greater propensity to “buy
    more”

                                                     31
Future Consumer

• time poor, data rich
• growing collaborative power – social media
• health, longevity and product source – major
  drivers
• price pressure – electricity, fuel, tolls, inflation
• job losses – multiplier effect


                                                     32
CPG Manufacturer Trends

•   increasing input costs = pressure on margins
•   packaging prices are up due to oil price
•   energy price increases
•   smaller players are experiencing declining
    volumes
•   market pricing more aggressive
•   margin pressure resulting in business strategy
    changes
•   imports are increasing as strong Rand makes
    these products cheaper
•   retailers are requesting smaller pack sizes
                                                     33
Ranging


•   select product from whole range, including products
    not merchandised in store previously
•   remove poor sellers
•   CPG company needs to produce & offer products
    which sell
•   successful ones have done their homework and
    becoming an essential part of a retailers range is
    highly beneficial
•   store specific meeting a localised need
•   best product mix within store parameters (size,
    customer base, seasonality)
•   relevant vs full product range
•   dynamic                                            34
Optimizing brand
                           performance in store


•   optimal type of in store communication
•   visual brand triggers
•   communication on pack
•   visibility of packaging
•   marketers have traditionally focused on
    building “brand equity
•   brand power in the mind of the consumer


                                              35
Case Study Chocolate Bars
Local Market Performance vs.
                GDP vs. PCE




                          36
Market Trends – Count Lines


• count lines increased by 17.6% in 2010
• category grew despite the high price increases

Growth seen in this sector attributed to the following;
• active participation of major players in promotional activity
• advertising campaigns
• outdoor advertising
• promotional competitions
• sponsorships by leading manufacturers of count lines
• new packaging designs
• soccer world cup centred promotions
• price promotions
     Advertising, promotional activities, innovation              37
Market Trends – Health Bars

• health bars increased 4.5%
• general retail remains the most popular
  distribution channel for health bars

The growth seen in this category over the years
  could be attributed to the following;
• product innovation such as the reformulated
  of Special K bars
• introduction of new brands and new flavours

                                              38
% Share of Print
                                                         No Ads by Retail Group
                                                                          Foods
                                                                    Nov – Dec 2009 vs. Nov - Dec 2010
60%
                                                                    Total Market Spend 2010 = R160 mil
              51.7%
                                                                    Total Market Spend 2009 = R145 mil
50%
      44.1%
                                                During the festive season when the overall ad spend is
40%                                              expected to be higher year-on-year, only Shoprite and
                                               Masscash increased advertising spend significantly. Perhaps
                      33.2%
                                                         a sign of the slow recovering economy
30%                           29.0%                                                                                 2009
                                                                                                                    2010


20%



10%                                   8.5%            8.0%
                                             7.3%            6.6%
                                                                     4.1%
                                                                            3.1%
                                                                                   1.5%   1.9%
                                                                                                 0.5%   0.4%
0%
       Shoprite       Pick 'n Pay       Spar          Massmart        Fruit-Veg    MetCash       Woolworths

                                                                                                               39
Ads by Product Group and
                                                     Retail Group in 2010
                                                                         Nov - Dec 2009 vs. Nov - Dec 2010

40%   32.2%
      37.6%


35%                                                                                                                  2009
                                                                                                                     2010
30%
                                                                                                                        Shoprite

25%                                                                                                                     Pick 'n Pay
           23.4%
          20.0%                                                                                                         Spar
20%
                                                                                                                        Massmart
15%
                                                                                                                        Fruit-Veg

10%
               5.2%
               4.5% 3.0%                      4.2%
                                                                                         5.0%
5%                         1.9% 0.9%                 3.2%      2.5%                                           2.3%
                    2.8%
                                       0.3%                                                     1.9%          2.1%
                           1.1% 1.4%                        1.3% 1.6%
                                     0.3%                               0.3% 0.3% 0.0%                 0.3%          0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
0%
                   NUTRITION                                REFRESHMENTS                               CONFECTIONERY


                                                                                                                           40
Adspend by Retail Group
                                                 Confectionery
                                                    Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11

R 7 000 000


                                                 Total Market Spend 2010 = R 8 mil
R 6 000 000
                                                 Total Market Spend 2011 = R 9.6 mil

R 5 000 000
                            Shoprite Continues
R 4 000 000
                            Advertising Spend
                                                                                 2010Q1
                                                                                 2011Q1
R 3 000 000



R 2 000 000



R 1 000 000



        R0
              SHOPRITE   PICK N PAY   MASSMART        CLICKS         SPAR
                                                                                  41
Adspend by Category
                                                                   Confectionery
                                                                  Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11


R 5 000 000
                                                              Total Market Spend 2010 = R 8 mil
R 4 500 000
                                                             Total Market Spend 2011 = R 9.6 mil
                 34%
R 4 000 000


R 3 500 000
                                        Increase in spend
R 3 000 000                             driven by Shoprite
                                                                                       -14%
R 2 500 000                                                                                         2010Q1
                                                                       26%                          2011Q1
                                            30%
R 2 000 000


R 1 500 000


R 1 000 000


 R 500 000


        R0
              CHOCOLATE ASSORTMENT   CHOCOLATE BARS SLABS   CHOCOLATE COUNTLINE    SWEETS
                                                                                                   42
Ad spend by Brand
                                 Choc Assortment Top 15
                                       Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11

                                     Total Market Spend 2010 = R 3.4 mil
R 800 000   5%

                 -50%                Total Market Spend 2011 = R 4.7 mil
R 700 000

R 600 000                               Cadbury decline by all Retailers
R 500 000
                                        Ferrero Increase driven by PnP
                                   Tiffany, Whitakers, Diamond, Hollander,
R 400 000           -10%                 Azure – Shoprite Housebrand
R 300 000                  11%                                         2010Q1
                                                                       2011Q1
R 200 000

R 100 000

      R0




                                                                     43
Adspend by Brand Slabs
                                   Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11


R 800 000
                                    Total Market Spend 2010 = R 1 mil
            50%
                                   Total Market Spend 2011 = R 1.26 mil
R 700 000


R 600 000         -34%
                                   Cadbury increase - PnP & Massmart
                                                (Game)
R 500 000                            Beacon decline – PnP & Clicks

R 400 000
                                                                   2010Q1
R 300 000                                                          2011Q1

R 200 000                +165%


R 100 000


      R0
Adspend by Brand Count line
                                                  Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11


R 700 000                                          Total Market Spend 2010 = R 1.5 mil
            -26%
                                                   Total Market Spend 2011 = R 1.9 mil
                   39%
R 600 000

                                                    Nestle decline – PnP, Massmart &
R 500 000
                                                                  Clicks
                         400%
                                                      Cadbury increase – Shoprite
R 400 000


R 300 000
                                                                                   2010Q1
                                7%   166%                                          2011Q1
R 200 000


R 100 000


      R0
Adspend by Brand Sweets
                                                    Top 10
                                         Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11
R 800 000
                                              Total Market Spend 2010 = R 2 mil
            -25%
R 700 000                                    Total Market Spend 2011 = R 1.8 mil

R 600 000                                        Beacon decline – All
                                           Manhattan decline – Shoprite
R 500 000                            Sally Williams (Nougat) Spend – Shoprite
                                    Wedgewood (Nougat) Spend– Shoprite & PnP
               -15%
R 400 000

                                                                        2010Q1
                            265%
R 300 000             36%                                               2011Q1


R 200 000


R 100 000


      R0
Inflation/Deflation
                                          Promotional Pricing
                                       Top 20 Promoted SKU’s
                                         Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11
SKU                                        2010      2011 % Inc/Dec
BEACON PREPACKS 400 GRAMS               R 16.99   R 14.99 -11.77%
BEACON MARSHMALLOWS 400 GRAMS            R 9.99    R 8.99 -10.01%
BEACON CHOCOLATE SLAB 100 GRAMS          R 5.99    R 5.49     -8.35%
BEACON CHOCOLATE SLABS 100 GRAMS         R 5.99    R 5.59     -6.68%
BEACON MARSHMALLOWS 150 GRAMS            R 4.99    R 4.79     -4.01%
BEACON MARSHMALLOWS 125 GRAMS x 4       R 20.00   R 20.00      0.00%
BEACON FAVOURITES 200 GRAMS             R 21.99   R 21.99      0.00%
FERRERO ROCHER 200 GRAMS                R 39.99   R 39.99      0.00%
BEACON CHOCOLATE SLAB 200 GRAMS          R 9.99    R 9.99      0.00%
MANHATTAN MARSHMALLOWS 150 GRAMS         R 4.99    R 4.99      0.00%
BEACON CHOCOLATE SLABS 200 GRAMS         R 9.99    R 9.99      0.00%
CADBURY ENDEARMINTS 120 GRAMS            R 5.99    R 5.99      0.00%
WILSONS JELLY TOTS 100 GRAMS             R 4.99    R 4.99      0.00%
NESTLE PASSIONS CHOCOLATES 300 GRAMS    R 39.95   R 39.99      0.10%
CADBURY CHOCOLATE SLABS 90 GRAMS         R 6.79    R 6.89      1.47%
CADBURY CHOCOLATE SLABS 180 GRAMS       R 12.49   R 12.99      4.00%
CADBURY WHISPERS 150 GRAMS              R 18.99   R 19.99      5.27%
CADBURY MILK TRAY 250 GRAMS             R 34.99   R 36.99      5.72%
CADBURY WHISPERS 200 GRAMS              R 22.99   R 24.99      8.70%
Case Study - Bottled Water


  2010            4.2                                 Recession derailed
                   5.0
                                                             double
                3.3
  2009                          13.1                   digit growth path
  2008             4.9
                                13.4

  2007                                                 30.4
                                                                35.6

  2006                                                        33.4
                                                                            42.1

  2005                                                    32.8
                                                                        40.1

         0.0             10.0          20.0        30.0              40.0          50.0

                      Annual Volume Growth      Annual Value Growth

Value growth has consistently outstripped volume growth for many years, with cost-pull
inflation pushing up bottled water prices.
                                                                                          48
Bottled Water vs. GDP vs. PCE

50.0%




                             33.4%
         32.8%


40.0%




                                              30.4%
30.0%


20.0%                                  8.2%




                                                       7.0%
                  6.9%




                                                                5.5%
                                                      5.1%
                                     5.0%
                 4.9%




                                                                4.9%




                                                                                                4.2%
                                                               4.0%




                                                                              3.3%
10.0%




                                                                                              1.8%
 0.0%




                                                                                                       -0.9%
                                                                                      -1.3%
                                                                                     -2.7%
-10.0%


-20.0%
             2005                2006             2007           2008            2009          2010

                         % Growth Category            % GDP Growth      % PCE Growth                           49
Bottled Water Trends

• bottled water up 27.0%p.a (1998-2007)
• growth in popularity of bottled water was exceptional
• increase of 33.3% in 2009 & 4.2% in 2010
• recession translated into a decline in growth for bottled water
• limited players who had entered the market were forced to close
  down as the market became more competitive
• cost-pull inflation pushed up bottled water prices




                                                               50
Future Category Demand
                            Segment Sizing Forecasting

•   new Segment Sizing Projection Model (SSPM)
•   model predicts product demand by volume & value for
    selected segments
•   LSM, Age, Gender, Ethnic group, Region and many other
    segments
•   this model offers great speed – speed is pulling & calculating
    figures to allow more time for insights
•   minutes rather than days or weeks
•   any sector & offers a complete solution for population
    dynamics
•   brand owners can now predict future volume demand of
    both the product category & brand
•   AMPS can be easily adapted to transfer the relevant data for
    other sources, Homescan or Continuous Tracking
                                                                     51
BMI Segmentation Model –
                                             Bottled Wine 2009


                                   LSM 4          LSM 5           LSM6           LSM 7



1 POPULATION                        8 412 404      7 915 121       5 566 786       2 808 067


2 TOTAL MARKET (KL)                   16 862          22 190         30 469              15 029


3 % VOLUME                                 11.8            15.5           21.3             10.5


4 PCC per annum ( 2/1 ) - ml           2 004              2 803          5 473            5 352


5 % USING                                   3.7             4.6            4.6              5.3


6 NO OF USERS ( 1/5)                 313 550         363 096        257 971          149 691


7 USER PCC per annum ( 2/6) - ml      53 780          61 113        118 113          100 401


8 PCC ' UNITS ' per day                    147             167            323              274


                                                                                                  52
BMI Segmentation Model –
                                                        Bottled Wine LSM 7


                                   2009         2010          2011          2012          2013          2014



1 POPULATION                       2 808 067    2 785 877     2 764 057     2 742 844     2 722 848     2 703 987


2 TOTAL MARKET (KL)                  15 029       15 956        15 759        15 665        15 473        15 186


3 % VOLUME                              10.5           10.8          10.7          10.7          10.7          10.6


4 PCC per annum ( 2/1 ) - ml          5 352        5 727         5 701         5 711         5 682         5 616


5 % USING                                 5.3          5.13           4.9           4.6           4.3           4.1


6 NO OF USERS ( 1/5)                149 691      142 851       134 521       126 083       117 812       109 695


7 USER PCC per annum ( 2/6) - ml    100 401      111 698       117 154       124 249       131 344       138 439


8 PCC ' UNITS ' per day                   274          305           320           340           359           379

                                                                                                                      53
Retail Renaissance - Tesco
                                   Mobile Application


•   scan barcode
•   check stock availability
•   select delivery date
•   offer price
•   enter quantity
•   check out
•   delivery
              www.tesco.com

                                                   54
Retail Renaissance

•   OFF=ON: How the benefits of shopping online
    can now be had offline by consumers too.
•   RETAIL SAFARI: How experiences still rule.
•   INSTANT STATUS FIX: How shopping in the real
    world delivers instant status gratification in a
    way that online (still) can’t.
•   CITYSUMERS: The future of consumerism is
    urban, and urban culture is retail culture. On a
    global level.

                  Source: trendwatching.com
                                                  55
Bringing the best of
                                  online to the real world




In February 2011, JC Penney, the US department store, rolled out its findmore service to 120
stores across the US. In-store, 42 inch touch screens allow shoppers to view the retailer’s full
online catalogue, check inventory levels in local stores, share products with friends and scan
product bar codes to receive extra information and complementary product recommendations.
                                 Source: trendwatching.com                                  56
Retail Renaissance




•Singapore-based mobile operator SingTel launched their flagship store in
Singapore’s Comcentre in July 2011. The store’s exterior glass walls have
embedded interactive digital touchscreens in them, meaning that the store is
effectively open 24/7         Source: trendwatching.com                        57
Retail Renaissance




•Home plus, the Korean branch of Tesco, recently launched a series of virtual
stores on subway platforms, enabling customers to make purchases using their
smartphones while they wait for a train. During the campaign, Home plus online
sales increased by 130%, with over 10,000 customers trying the stores.

                          Source: trendwatching.com                         58
Retail Renaissance




•US drugstore Duane Reade opened a flagship store on Wall Street in July
2011. As well as a pharmacy and onsite doctor, the store contains hair and nail
salons, virtual makeover kiosks, secure cell phone charging stations for
customers while they shop, and a shoe shine service (the latter's proceeds
going to charity).                                                              59
                            Source: trendwatching.com
Retail Renaissance


The Financial Times reported in July 2011
that Tesco, the UK based supermarket was
piloting free in-store wifi, allowing
customers to check prices online and read
product reviews. Nordstrom, Sam’s Club
and Home Depot in the US already offer
similar services in many stores.




             Source: trendwatching.com       60
Retail Renaissance


The Financial Times reported in July 2011
that Tesco, the UK based supermarket was
piloting free in-store wifi, allowing
customers to check prices online and read
product reviews. Nordstrom, Sam’s Club
and Home Depot in the US already offer
similar services in many stores.




             Source: trendwatching.com       61
So what’s new?




            62
BMI Core Products and
                                                 Services


                 Commissioned


    Print
    Ads                               ISOS
                           AVI
                        Coca Cola
                        Brandhouse
                          Distell
                          Nestle      LISP
Rest of Africa          Reckitt & B
                           Tiger
                    Annual
                         Pioneer
                   Market
                         Unilever
                 Quantification
                                                     63
Thank
 You
www.bmi.co.za




                64

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Future of In-Store Brand Performance & Consumer Behaviour

  • 1. What is the future of In-store Brand, Performance & Consumer Behaviour? September 2011 Presented by Gareth Pearson BMI Research 1
  • 2. South Africa’s GDP GDP % Change 7.0% 5.1% 5.5% 4.8% 4.8% 3.7% 3.2% 2.8% 4.5%2.8% 4.5% 2.5% 2.7% 1.3% 0.9% 2.0% -0.5% -3.0% -0.7% -2.8% -1.8% -5.5% -7.4% -8.0% Source: SARB Note: Percentage change at seasonally adjusted annualized rates 2
  • 3. South Africa’s Retail Sales Year-on-Year % Retail Sales at constant 2008 prices Q4 7.7% -3.4% -0.4% Q3 6.2% -3.3% -1.0% Q2 4.9% -5.4% 0.4% 5.6% Q1 1.3% -2.4% 2.3% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 2011 2010 2009 2008 Source: Stats SA % change y/y at constant 2008 prices 3
  • 4. Our Shopper- recession impact • tighter family income vs. continued inflation • seeking VALUE from retailers and wholesalers with intensity and vigour • convenience has a price • consumers are drinking & eating more @home • price point centric – reduce pack sizes • down trading : premium – mid – econo • focus on promotional purchases 4
  • 5. Our Retailers- recession impact • offering longer print promotions • offering 3 for 2’s and value promotions • much more effort on price competitiveness • focusing on optimising product ranging • focus on promotions – wider use by all retailers 5
  • 7. Retail Shelf – the battleground 7
  • 8. Case Study- shelf health for soap • forward share • promotional spend • in store promotions • regional share 8
  • 9. % Share of Shelf Total 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 2011Q1 15.00% 2011Q2 2011Q3 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E 2011Q1 20.65% 6.35% 26.22% 14.95% 31.83% 2011Q2 18.22% 6.28% 27.55% 15.20% 32.75% 2011Q3 21.14% 6.58% 26.61% 13.77% 31.90% 9
  • 10. No. of Ad’s Total 900 800 700 600 500 2011Q1 400 2011Q2 300 2011Q3 200 100 0 Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E 2011Q1 803 268 536 801 801 2011Q2 764 255 510 765 765 2011Q3 778 259 518 777 777 10
  • 11. % Share of Display Total 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 2011Q1 15.00% 2011Q2 2011Q3 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Brand A Brand C Brand D Brand E Brand B 2011Q1 20.00% 24.62% 18.46% 23.08% 13.85% 2011Q2 29.41% 19.12% 17.65% 22.06% 11.76% 2011Q3 31.25% 22.50% 15.00% 25.00% 6.25% 11
  • 12. No of Type of Display Total 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Dump Bin FSU 3 GE 2 1 0 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 2011Q 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Brand A Brand C Brand D Brand E Brand B Dump Bin 2 3 4 2 1 2 2 3 FSU 1 3 5 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 GE 4 1 5 3 7 3 2 2 5 3 9 3 2 3 12
  • 13. Share of Shelf by Region 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% E Cape - 2011Q1 15.00% E Cape - 2011Q2 10.00% 5.00% E Cape - 2011Q3 0.00% Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E FS - 2011Q1 E Cape - 2011Q1 18.93% 4.12% 27.39% 16.86% 32.70% FS - 2011Q2 E Cape - 2011Q2 16.18% 3.78% 30.57% 16.13% 33.35% FS - 2011Q3 E Cape - 2011Q3 18.63% 4.88% 28.12% 14.35% 34.02% Gauteng - 2011Q1 FS - 2011Q1 23.02% 7.09% 23.61% 13.84% 32.43% FS - 2011Q2 22.06% 7.11% 25.71% 12.78% 32.35% Gauteng - 2011Q2 FS - 2011Q3 24.36% 8.02% 24.31% 14.44% 28.87% Gauteng - 2011Q3 Gauteng - 2011Q1 21.61% 7.17% 25.70% 14.07% 31.44% KZN - 2011Q1 Gauteng - 2011Q2 18.47% 7.06% 26.88% 14.70% 32.89% KZN - 2011Q2 Gauteng - 2011Q3 21.66% 7.37% 25.87% 12.28% 32.82% KZN - 2011Q3 KZN - 2011Q1 23.00% 8.34% 22.18% 15.50% 30.98% W Cape - 2011Q1 KZN - 2011Q2 20.79% 8.19% 24.33% 14.59% 32.10% W Cape - 2011Q2 KZN - 2011Q3 26.62% 7.91% 24.94% 13.90% 26.63% W Cape - 2011Q1 17.42% 4.95% 30.05% 15.43% 32.14% W Cape - 2011Q3 W Cape - 2011Q2 16.21% 5.29% 29.02% 17.15% 32.33% W Cape - 2011Q3 17.52% 4.97% 28.83% 16.25% 32.42% 13
  • 14. Share of Shelf PnP 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 2011Q1 15.00% 2011Q2 2011Q3 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E 2011Q1 20.80% 7.50% 24.48% 15.23% 31.99% 2011Q2 18.44% 7.28% 26.76% 14.79% 32.73% 2011Q3 21.73% 7.27% 24.83% 14.39% 31.77% 14
  • 15. Share of Shelf Shoprite 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 2011Q1 2011Q2 15.00% 2011Q3 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E 2011Q1 18.93% 4.74% 24.38% 15.77% 36.18% 2011Q2 17.95% 4.91% 27.47% 14.89% 34.78% 2011Q3 19.86% 4.78% 28.66% 14.23% 32.47% 15
  • 16. Share of Shelf Spar 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 2011Q1 15.00% 2011Q2 2011Q3 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E 2011Q1 23.38% 9.05% 27.17% 9.70% 30.69% 2011Q2 18.15% 9.67% 28.46% 10.99% 32.73% 2011Q3 22.66% 8.99% 29.71% 9.05% 29.60% 16
  • 17. In store Brand Performance Dash Board – Brand "A" August 2011 MONTHLY YTD MONTHLY YTD IN STORE KPI Brand “A” SCORE SCORE TARGET TARGET OOS (2 observations) (480/600) (3960/4800) Organogram compliance (272/300) (2176/2400) In store promotional - Gondola End (255/300) (2284/2400) In store promotional - Dump Bin (290/300) (1921/2400) Shelf quality (eye level, category) (180/300) (1760/2400) Forward share % (35%) (38%) Shelf exposure (cm) (8180/9000) (61200/72000) 17
  • 18. Shelf Health Check Store 321 (12 - 17 September) Correct # Total Drop : Shelf Drop 1 , Shelf 5 # HFacings # VFacings # Stock Shelf # Placement: Facings Position y/n 6001049110518 BRAND "A" PROCESSED CHEESE SLICES SWEETMILK 400GR 1 1 1 24 1 5 N 6001049110495 BRAND "A" CHEDDAR SLICES 400GR 1 29 1 5 N 6001049110457 BRAND "A" CHEDDAR SLICES 400GR 1 23 1 5 N 6001049110471 BRAND "A" PROCESSED CHEESE SLICES BILTON 400GR 2 30 1 5 N 6001180066767 BRAND "B" BIG EASY SLICE 6001180633783 BRAND "B" SINGLES 200GR 1 1 1 18 1 5 N 600104110556 BRAND "A" BILTONG 200GR 2 3 2 56 1 5 N 6001049110570 BRAND "A" WITH CHEDDAR 2 2 1 45 1 5 N # HFacings Number of Horizontal Facings touching Shelf # Total Facings Number of Total Facings # Stock Complete Physical Count of prd Forward Share Prd start to Prd end, measurement Fwd Share (cm's) Drop : Shelf Position Drop 1 furthest to the left = 1 Shelf # Shelf 1 = Top Shelf of Drop for majority or first if a few Correct Placement: y/n if 1 prd is out of line mark as No 18
  • 19. Merchandising Performance OOS • costs retailers (4% of annual revenue) & manufacturers(2.5%) • 30% between factory and store site • 70% between store stock to shelf (50 m) • data accuracy • inaccurate forecasting • ordering • shelf capacity and shelf management are pivotal to success 19
  • 20. Merchandising Performance…. OOS Consequences • OOS translates to • brand substitution • cancel purchase • buy from another store • repeated OOS experiences negatively impact brand equity (product and store) • labour cost, shoppers seeking assistance from packers • effective execution throughout chain is essential • impartial tracking and management can translate to significant upside • real time dashboard to monitor merchandisers 20
  • 21. Pricing Strategy Promotional Pricing High Low Regional Pricing EDLP 21
  • 22. EDLP • promising shoppers low price on selected items without the need to wait for sale price events or comparison shop • premise is that shopper loyalty is developed • saves retailer effort and expense of marking prices down Source: Wikipedia 22
  • 23. High Low • products offered are regularly priced higher than competitors • lower promotional prices are targeted to increase footfall • shoppers then offered these and other higher prices products Source: Wikipedia 23
  • 24. Pricing Strategy • tactically important to monitor weekly • monitor competitors in store pricing and own (compliance) • introduce promotional pricing when appropriate • react tactically and strategically • use science and available intel 24
  • 25. Promotional Pricing – August 2011 Coca Cola Coke 2L Clover Fresh Milk 2L Promotion RSP Promotion RSP 0% 12% 3% -8% 8% R 12.99 R 16.77 R 17.49 R 12.99 R 12.99 R 11.99 R 16.99 R 14.99 R 13.99 R 12.99 CHECKERS SHOPRITE CAMBRIDGE FOODS METRO HYPER PICK N PAY FAMILY HYPERAMA SUPERMARKET COMBINED 25
  • 26. Promotional Pricing – August 2011 ACE Super Maize Meal 5kg Black Cat Peanut Butter 400g Promotion RSP Promotion RSP 8% 12% 3% 0% 3% 0% R 23.99 R 16.77 R 17.49 R 20.99 R 16.99 R 23.99 R 20.99 R 14.99 R 21.64 R 13.99 R 20.99 R 12.99 FRUIT-VEG CITY SPAR MAKRO CHECKERS SHOPRITE CAMBRIDGE FOODS HYPERAMA COMBINED 26
  • 27. Promotional Pricing – August 2011 Selati White Sugar 2.5kg Five Roses Teabags 100 Promotion RSP Promotion RSP 3% 1% 0% 9% 7% 4% R 18.49 R 19.99 R 19.27 R 21.87 R 19.73 R 19.99 R 18.95 R 18.08 R 19.99 R 17.99 R 17.99 R 17.99 CHECKERS SHOPRITE FRUIT-VEG CITY SHOPRITE PICK N PAY SPAR HYPERAMA HYPERMARKET COMBINED 27
  • 28. Promotions –offering value • correct products - basket • 3 for 2 Options • combo deals 28
  • 29. Shopper vs. Consumer • consumer - exposed to holistic, multi-layered communication • shopper – exposed to rapid communication and transitory, relying on visuals & symbols • consumer is integral to consumption, driving awareness and visibility, triggering brand identity & communicating specific message • shopper communication can be used to elicit and support brand equity • POS signs, displays, in store media are unique to retail 29
  • 31. Future Consumer • rising inflation constrained by tighter family income • access to more data to support better purchase decisions • seeking value through promotions and value buying • brand stakeholder - SMR • once in store greater propensity to “buy more” 31
  • 32. Future Consumer • time poor, data rich • growing collaborative power – social media • health, longevity and product source – major drivers • price pressure – electricity, fuel, tolls, inflation • job losses – multiplier effect 32
  • 33. CPG Manufacturer Trends • increasing input costs = pressure on margins • packaging prices are up due to oil price • energy price increases • smaller players are experiencing declining volumes • market pricing more aggressive • margin pressure resulting in business strategy changes • imports are increasing as strong Rand makes these products cheaper • retailers are requesting smaller pack sizes 33
  • 34. Ranging • select product from whole range, including products not merchandised in store previously • remove poor sellers • CPG company needs to produce & offer products which sell • successful ones have done their homework and becoming an essential part of a retailers range is highly beneficial • store specific meeting a localised need • best product mix within store parameters (size, customer base, seasonality) • relevant vs full product range • dynamic 34
  • 35. Optimizing brand performance in store • optimal type of in store communication • visual brand triggers • communication on pack • visibility of packaging • marketers have traditionally focused on building “brand equity • brand power in the mind of the consumer 35
  • 36. Case Study Chocolate Bars Local Market Performance vs. GDP vs. PCE 36
  • 37. Market Trends – Count Lines • count lines increased by 17.6% in 2010 • category grew despite the high price increases Growth seen in this sector attributed to the following; • active participation of major players in promotional activity • advertising campaigns • outdoor advertising • promotional competitions • sponsorships by leading manufacturers of count lines • new packaging designs • soccer world cup centred promotions • price promotions Advertising, promotional activities, innovation 37
  • 38. Market Trends – Health Bars • health bars increased 4.5% • general retail remains the most popular distribution channel for health bars The growth seen in this category over the years could be attributed to the following; • product innovation such as the reformulated of Special K bars • introduction of new brands and new flavours 38
  • 39. % Share of Print No Ads by Retail Group Foods Nov – Dec 2009 vs. Nov - Dec 2010 60% Total Market Spend 2010 = R160 mil 51.7% Total Market Spend 2009 = R145 mil 50% 44.1% During the festive season when the overall ad spend is 40% expected to be higher year-on-year, only Shoprite and Masscash increased advertising spend significantly. Perhaps 33.2% a sign of the slow recovering economy 30% 29.0% 2009 2010 20% 10% 8.5% 8.0% 7.3% 6.6% 4.1% 3.1% 1.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0% Shoprite Pick 'n Pay Spar Massmart Fruit-Veg MetCash Woolworths 39
  • 40. Ads by Product Group and Retail Group in 2010 Nov - Dec 2009 vs. Nov - Dec 2010 40% 32.2% 37.6% 35% 2009 2010 30% Shoprite 25% Pick 'n Pay 23.4% 20.0% Spar 20% Massmart 15% Fruit-Veg 10% 5.2% 4.5% 3.0% 4.2% 5.0% 5% 1.9% 0.9% 3.2% 2.5% 2.3% 2.8% 0.3% 1.9% 2.1% 1.1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0% NUTRITION REFRESHMENTS CONFECTIONERY 40
  • 41. Adspend by Retail Group Confectionery Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11 R 7 000 000 Total Market Spend 2010 = R 8 mil R 6 000 000 Total Market Spend 2011 = R 9.6 mil R 5 000 000 Shoprite Continues R 4 000 000 Advertising Spend 2010Q1 2011Q1 R 3 000 000 R 2 000 000 R 1 000 000 R0 SHOPRITE PICK N PAY MASSMART CLICKS SPAR 41
  • 42. Adspend by Category Confectionery Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11 R 5 000 000 Total Market Spend 2010 = R 8 mil R 4 500 000 Total Market Spend 2011 = R 9.6 mil 34% R 4 000 000 R 3 500 000 Increase in spend R 3 000 000 driven by Shoprite -14% R 2 500 000 2010Q1 26% 2011Q1 30% R 2 000 000 R 1 500 000 R 1 000 000 R 500 000 R0 CHOCOLATE ASSORTMENT CHOCOLATE BARS SLABS CHOCOLATE COUNTLINE SWEETS 42
  • 43. Ad spend by Brand Choc Assortment Top 15 Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11 Total Market Spend 2010 = R 3.4 mil R 800 000 5% -50% Total Market Spend 2011 = R 4.7 mil R 700 000 R 600 000 Cadbury decline by all Retailers R 500 000 Ferrero Increase driven by PnP Tiffany, Whitakers, Diamond, Hollander, R 400 000 -10% Azure – Shoprite Housebrand R 300 000 11% 2010Q1 2011Q1 R 200 000 R 100 000 R0 43
  • 44. Adspend by Brand Slabs Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11 R 800 000 Total Market Spend 2010 = R 1 mil 50% Total Market Spend 2011 = R 1.26 mil R 700 000 R 600 000 -34% Cadbury increase - PnP & Massmart (Game) R 500 000 Beacon decline – PnP & Clicks R 400 000 2010Q1 R 300 000 2011Q1 R 200 000 +165% R 100 000 R0
  • 45. Adspend by Brand Count line Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11 R 700 000 Total Market Spend 2010 = R 1.5 mil -26% Total Market Spend 2011 = R 1.9 mil 39% R 600 000 Nestle decline – PnP, Massmart & R 500 000 Clicks 400% Cadbury increase – Shoprite R 400 000 R 300 000 2010Q1 7% 166% 2011Q1 R 200 000 R 100 000 R0
  • 46. Adspend by Brand Sweets Top 10 Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11 R 800 000 Total Market Spend 2010 = R 2 mil -25% R 700 000 Total Market Spend 2011 = R 1.8 mil R 600 000 Beacon decline – All Manhattan decline – Shoprite R 500 000 Sally Williams (Nougat) Spend – Shoprite Wedgewood (Nougat) Spend– Shoprite & PnP -15% R 400 000 2010Q1 265% R 300 000 36% 2011Q1 R 200 000 R 100 000 R0
  • 47. Inflation/Deflation Promotional Pricing Top 20 Promoted SKU’s Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11 SKU 2010 2011 % Inc/Dec BEACON PREPACKS 400 GRAMS R 16.99 R 14.99 -11.77% BEACON MARSHMALLOWS 400 GRAMS R 9.99 R 8.99 -10.01% BEACON CHOCOLATE SLAB 100 GRAMS R 5.99 R 5.49 -8.35% BEACON CHOCOLATE SLABS 100 GRAMS R 5.99 R 5.59 -6.68% BEACON MARSHMALLOWS 150 GRAMS R 4.99 R 4.79 -4.01% BEACON MARSHMALLOWS 125 GRAMS x 4 R 20.00 R 20.00 0.00% BEACON FAVOURITES 200 GRAMS R 21.99 R 21.99 0.00% FERRERO ROCHER 200 GRAMS R 39.99 R 39.99 0.00% BEACON CHOCOLATE SLAB 200 GRAMS R 9.99 R 9.99 0.00% MANHATTAN MARSHMALLOWS 150 GRAMS R 4.99 R 4.99 0.00% BEACON CHOCOLATE SLABS 200 GRAMS R 9.99 R 9.99 0.00% CADBURY ENDEARMINTS 120 GRAMS R 5.99 R 5.99 0.00% WILSONS JELLY TOTS 100 GRAMS R 4.99 R 4.99 0.00% NESTLE PASSIONS CHOCOLATES 300 GRAMS R 39.95 R 39.99 0.10% CADBURY CHOCOLATE SLABS 90 GRAMS R 6.79 R 6.89 1.47% CADBURY CHOCOLATE SLABS 180 GRAMS R 12.49 R 12.99 4.00% CADBURY WHISPERS 150 GRAMS R 18.99 R 19.99 5.27% CADBURY MILK TRAY 250 GRAMS R 34.99 R 36.99 5.72% CADBURY WHISPERS 200 GRAMS R 22.99 R 24.99 8.70%
  • 48. Case Study - Bottled Water 2010 4.2 Recession derailed 5.0 double 3.3 2009 13.1 digit growth path 2008 4.9 13.4 2007 30.4 35.6 2006 33.4 42.1 2005 32.8 40.1 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 Annual Volume Growth Annual Value Growth Value growth has consistently outstripped volume growth for many years, with cost-pull inflation pushing up bottled water prices. 48
  • 49. Bottled Water vs. GDP vs. PCE 50.0% 33.4% 32.8% 40.0% 30.4% 30.0% 20.0% 8.2% 7.0% 6.9% 5.5% 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.2% 4.0% 3.3% 10.0% 1.8% 0.0% -0.9% -1.3% -2.7% -10.0% -20.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 % Growth Category % GDP Growth % PCE Growth 49
  • 50. Bottled Water Trends • bottled water up 27.0%p.a (1998-2007) • growth in popularity of bottled water was exceptional • increase of 33.3% in 2009 & 4.2% in 2010 • recession translated into a decline in growth for bottled water • limited players who had entered the market were forced to close down as the market became more competitive • cost-pull inflation pushed up bottled water prices 50
  • 51. Future Category Demand Segment Sizing Forecasting • new Segment Sizing Projection Model (SSPM) • model predicts product demand by volume & value for selected segments • LSM, Age, Gender, Ethnic group, Region and many other segments • this model offers great speed – speed is pulling & calculating figures to allow more time for insights • minutes rather than days or weeks • any sector & offers a complete solution for population dynamics • brand owners can now predict future volume demand of both the product category & brand • AMPS can be easily adapted to transfer the relevant data for other sources, Homescan or Continuous Tracking 51
  • 52. BMI Segmentation Model – Bottled Wine 2009 LSM 4 LSM 5 LSM6 LSM 7 1 POPULATION 8 412 404 7 915 121 5 566 786 2 808 067 2 TOTAL MARKET (KL) 16 862 22 190 30 469 15 029 3 % VOLUME 11.8 15.5 21.3 10.5 4 PCC per annum ( 2/1 ) - ml 2 004 2 803 5 473 5 352 5 % USING 3.7 4.6 4.6 5.3 6 NO OF USERS ( 1/5) 313 550 363 096 257 971 149 691 7 USER PCC per annum ( 2/6) - ml 53 780 61 113 118 113 100 401 8 PCC ' UNITS ' per day 147 167 323 274 52
  • 53. BMI Segmentation Model – Bottled Wine LSM 7 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1 POPULATION 2 808 067 2 785 877 2 764 057 2 742 844 2 722 848 2 703 987 2 TOTAL MARKET (KL) 15 029 15 956 15 759 15 665 15 473 15 186 3 % VOLUME 10.5 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6 4 PCC per annum ( 2/1 ) - ml 5 352 5 727 5 701 5 711 5 682 5 616 5 % USING 5.3 5.13 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.1 6 NO OF USERS ( 1/5) 149 691 142 851 134 521 126 083 117 812 109 695 7 USER PCC per annum ( 2/6) - ml 100 401 111 698 117 154 124 249 131 344 138 439 8 PCC ' UNITS ' per day 274 305 320 340 359 379 53
  • 54. Retail Renaissance - Tesco Mobile Application • scan barcode • check stock availability • select delivery date • offer price • enter quantity • check out • delivery www.tesco.com 54
  • 55. Retail Renaissance • OFF=ON: How the benefits of shopping online can now be had offline by consumers too. • RETAIL SAFARI: How experiences still rule. • INSTANT STATUS FIX: How shopping in the real world delivers instant status gratification in a way that online (still) can’t. • CITYSUMERS: The future of consumerism is urban, and urban culture is retail culture. On a global level. Source: trendwatching.com 55
  • 56. Bringing the best of online to the real world In February 2011, JC Penney, the US department store, rolled out its findmore service to 120 stores across the US. In-store, 42 inch touch screens allow shoppers to view the retailer’s full online catalogue, check inventory levels in local stores, share products with friends and scan product bar codes to receive extra information and complementary product recommendations. Source: trendwatching.com 56
  • 57. Retail Renaissance •Singapore-based mobile operator SingTel launched their flagship store in Singapore’s Comcentre in July 2011. The store’s exterior glass walls have embedded interactive digital touchscreens in them, meaning that the store is effectively open 24/7 Source: trendwatching.com 57
  • 58. Retail Renaissance •Home plus, the Korean branch of Tesco, recently launched a series of virtual stores on subway platforms, enabling customers to make purchases using their smartphones while they wait for a train. During the campaign, Home plus online sales increased by 130%, with over 10,000 customers trying the stores. Source: trendwatching.com 58
  • 59. Retail Renaissance •US drugstore Duane Reade opened a flagship store on Wall Street in July 2011. As well as a pharmacy and onsite doctor, the store contains hair and nail salons, virtual makeover kiosks, secure cell phone charging stations for customers while they shop, and a shoe shine service (the latter's proceeds going to charity). 59 Source: trendwatching.com
  • 60. Retail Renaissance The Financial Times reported in July 2011 that Tesco, the UK based supermarket was piloting free in-store wifi, allowing customers to check prices online and read product reviews. Nordstrom, Sam’s Club and Home Depot in the US already offer similar services in many stores. Source: trendwatching.com 60
  • 61. Retail Renaissance The Financial Times reported in July 2011 that Tesco, the UK based supermarket was piloting free in-store wifi, allowing customers to check prices online and read product reviews. Nordstrom, Sam’s Club and Home Depot in the US already offer similar services in many stores. Source: trendwatching.com 61
  • 63. BMI Core Products and Services Commissioned Print Ads ISOS AVI Coca Cola Brandhouse Distell Nestle LISP Rest of Africa Reckitt & B Tiger Annual Pioneer Market Unilever Quantification 63