The document discusses strategies for in-store brand performance and consumer behavior, including analyzing shelf share, promotional spending, and regional differences for soap brands. It also covers the impact of the recession on shoppers and retailers, and strategies retailers use around pricing, merchandising, and reducing out-of-stock situations. Key metrics for measuring in-store brand performance like forward share, number of advertisements, and shelf exposure are presented.
4. Our Shopper- recession
impact
• tighter family income vs. continued inflation
• seeking VALUE from retailers and wholesalers
with intensity and vigour
• convenience has a price
• consumers are drinking & eating more @home
• price point centric – reduce pack sizes
• down trading : premium – mid – econo
• focus on promotional purchases
4
5. Our Retailers- recession
impact
• offering longer print promotions
• offering 3 for 2’s and value promotions
• much more effort on price competitiveness
• focusing on optimising product ranging
• focus on promotions – wider use by all retailers
5
14. Share of Shelf PnP
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
2011Q1
15.00%
2011Q2
2011Q3
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E
2011Q1 20.80% 7.50% 24.48% 15.23% 31.99%
2011Q2 18.44% 7.28% 26.76% 14.79% 32.73%
2011Q3 21.73% 7.27% 24.83% 14.39% 31.77%
14
15. Share of Shelf Shoprite
40.00%
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
2011Q1
2011Q2
15.00%
2011Q3
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E
2011Q1 18.93% 4.74% 24.38% 15.77% 36.18%
2011Q2 17.95% 4.91% 27.47% 14.89% 34.78%
2011Q3 19.86% 4.78% 28.66% 14.23% 32.47% 15
16. Share of Shelf Spar
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
2011Q1
15.00%
2011Q2
2011Q3
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E
2011Q1 23.38% 9.05% 27.17% 9.70% 30.69%
2011Q2 18.15% 9.67% 28.46% 10.99% 32.73%
2011Q3 22.66% 8.99% 29.71% 9.05% 29.60%
16
17. In store Brand Performance
Dash Board – Brand "A"
August 2011
MONTHLY YTD MONTHLY YTD
IN STORE KPI Brand “A” SCORE SCORE TARGET TARGET
OOS (2 observations) (480/600) (3960/4800)
Organogram compliance (272/300) (2176/2400)
In store promotional - Gondola
End (255/300) (2284/2400)
In store promotional - Dump Bin (290/300) (1921/2400)
Shelf quality (eye level, category) (180/300) (1760/2400)
Forward share % (35%) (38%)
Shelf exposure (cm) (8180/9000) (61200/72000)
17
18. Shelf Health Check
Store 321 (12 - 17 September)
Correct
# Total Drop : Shelf
Drop 1 , Shelf 5 # HFacings # VFacings # Stock Shelf # Placement:
Facings Position
y/n
6001049110518 BRAND "A" PROCESSED CHEESE SLICES SWEETMILK 400GR 1 1 1 24 1 5 N
6001049110495 BRAND "A" CHEDDAR SLICES 400GR 1 29 1 5 N
6001049110457 BRAND "A" CHEDDAR SLICES 400GR 1 23 1 5 N
6001049110471 BRAND "A" PROCESSED CHEESE SLICES BILTON 400GR 2 30 1 5 N
6001180066767 BRAND "B" BIG EASY SLICE
6001180633783 BRAND "B" SINGLES 200GR 1 1 1 18 1 5 N
600104110556 BRAND "A" BILTONG 200GR 2 3 2 56 1 5 N
6001049110570 BRAND "A" WITH CHEDDAR 2 2 1 45 1 5 N
# HFacings Number of Horizontal Facings touching Shelf
# Total Facings Number of Total Facings
# Stock Complete Physical Count of prd
Forward Share Prd start to Prd end, measurement
Fwd Share (cm's)
Drop : Shelf Position Drop 1 furthest to the left = 1
Shelf # Shelf 1 = Top Shelf of Drop for majority or first if a few
Correct Placement: y/n if 1 prd is out of line mark as No
18
19. Merchandising
Performance
OOS
• costs retailers (4% of annual revenue) & manufacturers(2.5%)
• 30% between factory and store site
• 70% between store stock to shelf (50 m)
• data accuracy
• inaccurate forecasting
• ordering
• shelf capacity and shelf management are pivotal to success
19
20. Merchandising
Performance….
OOS Consequences
• OOS translates to
• brand substitution
• cancel purchase
• buy from another store
• repeated OOS experiences negatively impact brand equity
(product and store)
• labour cost, shoppers seeking assistance from packers
• effective execution throughout chain is essential
• impartial tracking and management can translate to significant
upside
• real time dashboard to monitor merchandisers
20
22. EDLP
• promising shoppers low price on selected
items without the need to wait for sale price
events or comparison shop
• premise is that shopper loyalty is developed
• saves retailer effort and expense of marking
prices down
Source: Wikipedia
22
23. High Low
• products offered are regularly priced higher
than competitors
• lower promotional prices are targeted to
increase footfall
• shoppers then offered these and other higher
prices products
Source: Wikipedia
23
24. Pricing Strategy
• tactically important to monitor weekly
• monitor competitors in store pricing and own
(compliance)
• introduce promotional pricing when
appropriate
• react tactically and strategically
• use science and available intel
24
25. Promotional Pricing –
August 2011
Coca Cola Coke 2L
Clover Fresh Milk 2L
Promotion RSP
Promotion RSP 0%
12% 3% -8%
8%
R 12.99
R 16.77 R 17.49 R 12.99
R 12.99 R 11.99
R 16.99
R 14.99 R 13.99
R 12.99
CHECKERS SHOPRITE CAMBRIDGE FOODS METRO HYPER PICK N PAY FAMILY
HYPERAMA SUPERMARKET
COMBINED
25
26. Promotional Pricing –
August 2011
ACE Super Maize Meal 5kg Black Cat Peanut Butter 400g
Promotion RSP Promotion RSP
8%
12% 3%
0%
3%
0%
R 23.99 R 16.77 R 17.49
R 20.99 R 16.99
R 23.99
R 20.99 R 14.99
R 21.64
R 13.99
R 20.99 R 12.99
FRUIT-VEG CITY SPAR MAKRO CHECKERS SHOPRITE CAMBRIDGE FOODS
HYPERAMA
COMBINED
26
27. Promotional Pricing –
August 2011
Selati White Sugar 2.5kg Five Roses Teabags 100
Promotion RSP Promotion RSP
3% 1% 0% 9%
7% 4%
R 18.49 R 19.99 R 19.27 R 21.87 R 19.73
R 19.99 R 18.95
R 18.08 R 19.99
R 17.99 R 17.99
R 17.99
CHECKERS SHOPRITE FRUIT-VEG CITY SHOPRITE PICK N PAY SPAR
HYPERAMA HYPERMARKET
COMBINED
27
29. Shopper vs. Consumer
• consumer - exposed to holistic, multi-layered
communication
• shopper – exposed to rapid communication and transitory,
relying on visuals & symbols
• consumer is integral to consumption, driving awareness and
visibility, triggering brand identity & communicating specific
message
• shopper communication can be used to elicit and support
brand equity
• POS signs, displays, in store media are unique to retail
29
31. Future Consumer
• rising inflation constrained by tighter family
income
• access to more data to support better
purchase decisions
• seeking value through promotions and value
buying
• brand stakeholder - SMR
• once in store greater propensity to “buy
more”
31
32. Future Consumer
• time poor, data rich
• growing collaborative power – social media
• health, longevity and product source – major
drivers
• price pressure – electricity, fuel, tolls, inflation
• job losses – multiplier effect
32
33. CPG Manufacturer Trends
• increasing input costs = pressure on margins
• packaging prices are up due to oil price
• energy price increases
• smaller players are experiencing declining
volumes
• market pricing more aggressive
• margin pressure resulting in business strategy
changes
• imports are increasing as strong Rand makes
these products cheaper
• retailers are requesting smaller pack sizes
33
34. Ranging
• select product from whole range, including products
not merchandised in store previously
• remove poor sellers
• CPG company needs to produce & offer products
which sell
• successful ones have done their homework and
becoming an essential part of a retailers range is
highly beneficial
• store specific meeting a localised need
• best product mix within store parameters (size,
customer base, seasonality)
• relevant vs full product range
• dynamic 34
35. Optimizing brand
performance in store
• optimal type of in store communication
• visual brand triggers
• communication on pack
• visibility of packaging
• marketers have traditionally focused on
building “brand equity
• brand power in the mind of the consumer
35
37. Market Trends – Count Lines
• count lines increased by 17.6% in 2010
• category grew despite the high price increases
Growth seen in this sector attributed to the following;
• active participation of major players in promotional activity
• advertising campaigns
• outdoor advertising
• promotional competitions
• sponsorships by leading manufacturers of count lines
• new packaging designs
• soccer world cup centred promotions
• price promotions
Advertising, promotional activities, innovation 37
38. Market Trends – Health Bars
• health bars increased 4.5%
• general retail remains the most popular
distribution channel for health bars
The growth seen in this category over the years
could be attributed to the following;
• product innovation such as the reformulated
of Special K bars
• introduction of new brands and new flavours
38
39. % Share of Print
No Ads by Retail Group
Foods
Nov – Dec 2009 vs. Nov - Dec 2010
60%
Total Market Spend 2010 = R160 mil
51.7%
Total Market Spend 2009 = R145 mil
50%
44.1%
During the festive season when the overall ad spend is
40% expected to be higher year-on-year, only Shoprite and
Masscash increased advertising spend significantly. Perhaps
33.2%
a sign of the slow recovering economy
30% 29.0% 2009
2010
20%
10% 8.5% 8.0%
7.3% 6.6%
4.1%
3.1%
1.5% 1.9%
0.5% 0.4%
0%
Shoprite Pick 'n Pay Spar Massmart Fruit-Veg MetCash Woolworths
39
40. Ads by Product Group and
Retail Group in 2010
Nov - Dec 2009 vs. Nov - Dec 2010
40% 32.2%
37.6%
35% 2009
2010
30%
Shoprite
25% Pick 'n Pay
23.4%
20.0% Spar
20%
Massmart
15%
Fruit-Veg
10%
5.2%
4.5% 3.0% 4.2%
5.0%
5% 1.9% 0.9% 3.2% 2.5% 2.3%
2.8%
0.3% 1.9% 2.1%
1.1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.6%
0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
0%
NUTRITION REFRESHMENTS CONFECTIONERY
40
41. Adspend by Retail Group
Confectionery
Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11
R 7 000 000
Total Market Spend 2010 = R 8 mil
R 6 000 000
Total Market Spend 2011 = R 9.6 mil
R 5 000 000
Shoprite Continues
R 4 000 000
Advertising Spend
2010Q1
2011Q1
R 3 000 000
R 2 000 000
R 1 000 000
R0
SHOPRITE PICK N PAY MASSMART CLICKS SPAR
41
42. Adspend by Category
Confectionery
Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11
R 5 000 000
Total Market Spend 2010 = R 8 mil
R 4 500 000
Total Market Spend 2011 = R 9.6 mil
34%
R 4 000 000
R 3 500 000
Increase in spend
R 3 000 000 driven by Shoprite
-14%
R 2 500 000 2010Q1
26% 2011Q1
30%
R 2 000 000
R 1 500 000
R 1 000 000
R 500 000
R0
CHOCOLATE ASSORTMENT CHOCOLATE BARS SLABS CHOCOLATE COUNTLINE SWEETS
42
43. Ad spend by Brand
Choc Assortment Top 15
Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11
Total Market Spend 2010 = R 3.4 mil
R 800 000 5%
-50% Total Market Spend 2011 = R 4.7 mil
R 700 000
R 600 000 Cadbury decline by all Retailers
R 500 000
Ferrero Increase driven by PnP
Tiffany, Whitakers, Diamond, Hollander,
R 400 000 -10% Azure – Shoprite Housebrand
R 300 000 11% 2010Q1
2011Q1
R 200 000
R 100 000
R0
43
44. Adspend by Brand Slabs
Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11
R 800 000
Total Market Spend 2010 = R 1 mil
50%
Total Market Spend 2011 = R 1.26 mil
R 700 000
R 600 000 -34%
Cadbury increase - PnP & Massmart
(Game)
R 500 000 Beacon decline – PnP & Clicks
R 400 000
2010Q1
R 300 000 2011Q1
R 200 000 +165%
R 100 000
R0
45. Adspend by Brand Count line
Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11
R 700 000 Total Market Spend 2010 = R 1.5 mil
-26%
Total Market Spend 2011 = R 1.9 mil
39%
R 600 000
Nestle decline – PnP, Massmart &
R 500 000
Clicks
400%
Cadbury increase – Shoprite
R 400 000
R 300 000
2010Q1
7% 166% 2011Q1
R 200 000
R 100 000
R0
46. Adspend by Brand Sweets
Top 10
Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11
R 800 000
Total Market Spend 2010 = R 2 mil
-25%
R 700 000 Total Market Spend 2011 = R 1.8 mil
R 600 000 Beacon decline – All
Manhattan decline – Shoprite
R 500 000 Sally Williams (Nougat) Spend – Shoprite
Wedgewood (Nougat) Spend– Shoprite & PnP
-15%
R 400 000
2010Q1
265%
R 300 000 36% 2011Q1
R 200 000
R 100 000
R0
47. Inflation/Deflation
Promotional Pricing
Top 20 Promoted SKU’s
Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11
SKU 2010 2011 % Inc/Dec
BEACON PREPACKS 400 GRAMS R 16.99 R 14.99 -11.77%
BEACON MARSHMALLOWS 400 GRAMS R 9.99 R 8.99 -10.01%
BEACON CHOCOLATE SLAB 100 GRAMS R 5.99 R 5.49 -8.35%
BEACON CHOCOLATE SLABS 100 GRAMS R 5.99 R 5.59 -6.68%
BEACON MARSHMALLOWS 150 GRAMS R 4.99 R 4.79 -4.01%
BEACON MARSHMALLOWS 125 GRAMS x 4 R 20.00 R 20.00 0.00%
BEACON FAVOURITES 200 GRAMS R 21.99 R 21.99 0.00%
FERRERO ROCHER 200 GRAMS R 39.99 R 39.99 0.00%
BEACON CHOCOLATE SLAB 200 GRAMS R 9.99 R 9.99 0.00%
MANHATTAN MARSHMALLOWS 150 GRAMS R 4.99 R 4.99 0.00%
BEACON CHOCOLATE SLABS 200 GRAMS R 9.99 R 9.99 0.00%
CADBURY ENDEARMINTS 120 GRAMS R 5.99 R 5.99 0.00%
WILSONS JELLY TOTS 100 GRAMS R 4.99 R 4.99 0.00%
NESTLE PASSIONS CHOCOLATES 300 GRAMS R 39.95 R 39.99 0.10%
CADBURY CHOCOLATE SLABS 90 GRAMS R 6.79 R 6.89 1.47%
CADBURY CHOCOLATE SLABS 180 GRAMS R 12.49 R 12.99 4.00%
CADBURY WHISPERS 150 GRAMS R 18.99 R 19.99 5.27%
CADBURY MILK TRAY 250 GRAMS R 34.99 R 36.99 5.72%
CADBURY WHISPERS 200 GRAMS R 22.99 R 24.99 8.70%
48. Case Study - Bottled Water
2010 4.2 Recession derailed
5.0
double
3.3
2009 13.1 digit growth path
2008 4.9
13.4
2007 30.4
35.6
2006 33.4
42.1
2005 32.8
40.1
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0
Annual Volume Growth Annual Value Growth
Value growth has consistently outstripped volume growth for many years, with cost-pull
inflation pushing up bottled water prices.
48
49. Bottled Water vs. GDP vs. PCE
50.0%
33.4%
32.8%
40.0%
30.4%
30.0%
20.0% 8.2%
7.0%
6.9%
5.5%
5.1%
5.0%
4.9%
4.9%
4.2%
4.0%
3.3%
10.0%
1.8%
0.0%
-0.9%
-1.3%
-2.7%
-10.0%
-20.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% Growth Category % GDP Growth % PCE Growth 49
50. Bottled Water Trends
• bottled water up 27.0%p.a (1998-2007)
• growth in popularity of bottled water was exceptional
• increase of 33.3% in 2009 & 4.2% in 2010
• recession translated into a decline in growth for bottled water
• limited players who had entered the market were forced to close
down as the market became more competitive
• cost-pull inflation pushed up bottled water prices
50
51. Future Category Demand
Segment Sizing Forecasting
• new Segment Sizing Projection Model (SSPM)
• model predicts product demand by volume & value for
selected segments
• LSM, Age, Gender, Ethnic group, Region and many other
segments
• this model offers great speed – speed is pulling & calculating
figures to allow more time for insights
• minutes rather than days or weeks
• any sector & offers a complete solution for population
dynamics
• brand owners can now predict future volume demand of
both the product category & brand
• AMPS can be easily adapted to transfer the relevant data for
other sources, Homescan or Continuous Tracking
51
52. BMI Segmentation Model –
Bottled Wine 2009
LSM 4 LSM 5 LSM6 LSM 7
1 POPULATION 8 412 404 7 915 121 5 566 786 2 808 067
2 TOTAL MARKET (KL) 16 862 22 190 30 469 15 029
3 % VOLUME 11.8 15.5 21.3 10.5
4 PCC per annum ( 2/1 ) - ml 2 004 2 803 5 473 5 352
5 % USING 3.7 4.6 4.6 5.3
6 NO OF USERS ( 1/5) 313 550 363 096 257 971 149 691
7 USER PCC per annum ( 2/6) - ml 53 780 61 113 118 113 100 401
8 PCC ' UNITS ' per day 147 167 323 274
52
53. BMI Segmentation Model –
Bottled Wine LSM 7
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1 POPULATION 2 808 067 2 785 877 2 764 057 2 742 844 2 722 848 2 703 987
2 TOTAL MARKET (KL) 15 029 15 956 15 759 15 665 15 473 15 186
3 % VOLUME 10.5 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6
4 PCC per annum ( 2/1 ) - ml 5 352 5 727 5 701 5 711 5 682 5 616
5 % USING 5.3 5.13 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.1
6 NO OF USERS ( 1/5) 149 691 142 851 134 521 126 083 117 812 109 695
7 USER PCC per annum ( 2/6) - ml 100 401 111 698 117 154 124 249 131 344 138 439
8 PCC ' UNITS ' per day 274 305 320 340 359 379
53
54. Retail Renaissance - Tesco
Mobile Application
• scan barcode
• check stock availability
• select delivery date
• offer price
• enter quantity
• check out
• delivery
www.tesco.com
54
55. Retail Renaissance
• OFF=ON: How the benefits of shopping online
can now be had offline by consumers too.
• RETAIL SAFARI: How experiences still rule.
• INSTANT STATUS FIX: How shopping in the real
world delivers instant status gratification in a
way that online (still) can’t.
• CITYSUMERS: The future of consumerism is
urban, and urban culture is retail culture. On a
global level.
Source: trendwatching.com
55
56. Bringing the best of
online to the real world
In February 2011, JC Penney, the US department store, rolled out its findmore service to 120
stores across the US. In-store, 42 inch touch screens allow shoppers to view the retailer’s full
online catalogue, check inventory levels in local stores, share products with friends and scan
product bar codes to receive extra information and complementary product recommendations.
Source: trendwatching.com 56
57. Retail Renaissance
•Singapore-based mobile operator SingTel launched their flagship store in
Singapore’s Comcentre in July 2011. The store’s exterior glass walls have
embedded interactive digital touchscreens in them, meaning that the store is
effectively open 24/7 Source: trendwatching.com 57
58. Retail Renaissance
•Home plus, the Korean branch of Tesco, recently launched a series of virtual
stores on subway platforms, enabling customers to make purchases using their
smartphones while they wait for a train. During the campaign, Home plus online
sales increased by 130%, with over 10,000 customers trying the stores.
Source: trendwatching.com 58
59. Retail Renaissance
•US drugstore Duane Reade opened a flagship store on Wall Street in July
2011. As well as a pharmacy and onsite doctor, the store contains hair and nail
salons, virtual makeover kiosks, secure cell phone charging stations for
customers while they shop, and a shoe shine service (the latter's proceeds
going to charity). 59
Source: trendwatching.com
60. Retail Renaissance
The Financial Times reported in July 2011
that Tesco, the UK based supermarket was
piloting free in-store wifi, allowing
customers to check prices online and read
product reviews. Nordstrom, Sam’s Club
and Home Depot in the US already offer
similar services in many stores.
Source: trendwatching.com 60
61. Retail Renaissance
The Financial Times reported in July 2011
that Tesco, the UK based supermarket was
piloting free in-store wifi, allowing
customers to check prices online and read
product reviews. Nordstrom, Sam’s Club
and Home Depot in the US already offer
similar services in many stores.
Source: trendwatching.com 61
63. BMI Core Products and
Services
Commissioned
Print
Ads ISOS
AVI
Coca Cola
Brandhouse
Distell
Nestle LISP
Rest of Africa Reckitt & B
Tiger
Annual
Pioneer
Market
Unilever
Quantification
63