A cause map analysis of an earlier dairy quality incident (2004), presented at a conference at Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou

2. Events and incidents The flow of action is an ongoing undivided flow To understand what happens people divide the flow into individual events An abnormal event is regarded as an incident

3. Events and incidents milking Transporting milk Factory accepts the milk milking Transporting milk Factory rejects the milk

4. Causal relationships Because farming households are small and dispersed, the are unable to become a market party farming households are small and dispersed Farming households unable to become a market party The continuation of dumping milk indicates that the government has not been able to come up with effective measures the government has not been able to come up with effective measures dumping milk continues

5. 'The Fuyang incident made the dairy companies lower their production and therefore the farmers sold less raw milk. The farmers had no alternative but to dump the milk.' Fuyang Companies lower production Farmers sell less milk Farmers lack alternative Dumping milk

6. Fuyang National dairy industry recreated Big processors limit milk purchasing in Szj region Surplus of raw milk in Szj region Sanlu milk processing capacity limited Sanlu stricter purchasing specifications Substandard quality milk Szj region increases Farmers and traders unable to store milk Dumping milk Hebei Milk Association

7. Shijiazhuang Bureau of Animal Husbandry & Fishery Consumers want better quality Indiv. farmers diverse production methods Indiv. farmers no means to improve quality Some milk bad quality Fuyang Companies more concern for quality than quantity Lower production Less milk needed Dumping milk Milk perishable Recent increase demand dairy Increase profit dairy industry More concern for quantity than for quality Feed price up

8. Hebei Academy of Social Sciences Rural Economy Research Institute Market changes Enterprises produce less Farmers sell less milk Milk production not easily decreased Milk surplus Dumping milk Cattle farmers unorganised Market parties’ strengths unbalanced Farmers’ rights not well protected Government stimulates quantity rather than quality Much low quality milk produced

9. Cattle farmers Large milk supply Enterprises can not process all milk Enterprises use stricter rules Farmers sell less milk Dumping milk Lower milk price Deferred milk payment Higher feed price Farmers take on loans Farmers in debt Farmers less income No alternative sales channel

10. Sanlu Fuyang SL lowers production Big processors buy less from region SL needs less milk Dumping milk SL upgrades quality SL buys new QC instruments All milk inspected More milk rejected Government stimulates quantity rather than quality Much low quality milk produced Many individual farmers in region Indiv. farmers often adulterate milk

11. “ Shijiazhuang Dairy Board” Sanlu Bureau Farmers Academy Association Party X Potential temporary alliances

12. “ Shijiazhuang Dairy Board” Sanlu Bureau Farmers Academy Association Party X Potential temporary alliances