This document provides an overview of climate science and climate change impacts in New York. It discusses the basics of climate science including greenhouse gases and climate feedback loops. It then summarizes observed changes in New York's climate such as rising temperatures, especially in winter, and more variable precipitation patterns with heavier rainfall events. The impacts of these changes for New York include more frequent heat waves, short term drought, and flooding. The document outlines strategies for climate mitigation to reduce causes of climate change and climate adaptation to reduce impacts through increasing resilience, accommodating changes, and strategic relocation.
Disha NEET Physics Guide for classes 11 and 12.pdf
Climate basics
1. Climate Basics
Marist College Summer Institute
Libby Murphy
Hudson River Estuary Program/Cornell WRI
NYS Department of Environmental Conservation
2. Outline
• The Hudson River Estuary Program
• My background
• Basics of climate science
• Climate change in New York
• Climate mitigation
• Climate adaptation
• Field trip!
3. Hudson River Estuary
Program
Core Mission
• Ensure clean water
• Protect and restore fish, wildlife, and their
habitats
• Provide water recreation and river access
• Adapt to climate change
• Conserve world-famous scenery
4. How I got here
• Hudson Valley native
• M.S. Climate Science and Policy, Bard College (2014)
• M.B.A. in Sustainability, Bard College (2014)
• B.A., Geology, Vassar College (2008)
• Compton Mentor Fellow
• Theodore Gordon Flyfisher Scholar
• Adolph Sutro Fellow
• Work in climate outreach, renewable energy start ups
11. The long- and short-term carbon cycles
Rock reservoir
50 x 106 Gt*
Limestone
Organic carbon in sedimentary rocks
long-term
40 x 106
10 x 106
Fossil fuels
4.7 x 103
(coal = 4.0 x 103)
Marine carbonate sediments
World ocean
2.5 x
103
40 x 103
Dissolved inorganic carbon
39 x 103
Dissolved organic carbon
0.66 x 103
Organic carbon in soils and terrestrial sediments
short-term
Sizes of the
carbon
reservoirs
1.6 x 103
Organic carbon in permafrost
0.9 x 103
Atmospheric CO2
0.73 x 103
Living biomass
0.66 x 103
*Gt = gigatons = 109 metric tons
Sources: Kump et al., 2004; Zimov et al., 2006; others
12. Short-term carbon cycle
ocean
40,000 Gt C
97 Gt C/yr
atmosphere
730 Gt C
101 Gt C/yr
118 Gt C/yr
121 Gt C/yr
living things
660 Gt C
permafrost
900 Gt C
soils/sediments
1600 Gt C
The surface reservoirs
14. one-way flow from long- to short-term reservoirs
8.0 Gt C/yr
ocean
40,000 Gt C
97 Gt C/yr
atmosphere
730 Gt C
101 Gt C/yr
118 Gt C/yr
121 Gt C/yr
living things
660 Gt C
permafrost
900 Gt C
soils/sediments
1600 Gt C
The surface reservoirs
fossil fuels
4700 Gt C
sedimentary rocks
50 million Gt C
Long-term cycle
deep reservoirs
22. Increasing temperatures
Since 1970:
•Global annual average temp. up nearly 1°F
•US annual average temp. up 1.8°F
•New York annual average temp. up nearly 2°F
•New York winter temperatures up almost 5°F
35. What is climate mitigation?
• Mitigation = reduce the severity of an issue/problem
• Climate mitigation = reduce the severity of climate change
• Reducing the causes of climate change
• Some definitions: efficient, renewable, low-impact, carbonneutral, green buildings
38. What is climate adaptation?
• Adaptation= to adapt to new conditions
• Climate adaptation= to adapt to the impacts of climate change
• Reducing the impacts of climate change
• Some definitions: resilience, accommodate, fortify, retreat
51. Example of Accommodate
Kingston waterfront
Simulation: elevated sea level (low tide), vegetated
revetment, floodproofed buildings
52. Example of Strategic Relocation
Kingston waterfront
Simulation: elevated sea level (low tide), strategic retreat
Hinweis der Redaktion
Longer-term average weatherCan talk about it on varying scales –regional, continental, or whole worldPart of larger planetary system
Physical characteristics, chem comp, Earth’s orbit and much more determines the state of our climate systemThese 5 spheres are always exchanging materials through decomposition, photosynthesis, sedimentation, volcanization and many more processes.Last 2.5 million years were characterized by: glacial and inter-glacial cycles of 40-100K years eachClick –the climate is always changing, one reason: milankovitch cyclesD: Other reasons?
We know that by looking at ice cores that capture the comp of our atmosphere back in time.High correlation between CO2 and tempDriven by largely changes in earth’s orbit but amplified by CO2 levels in the atmosphere
That brings me to the C cycle. You can’t talk about the earth’s climate without discussing carbonThe C Cycle refers to the path of C through earth’s 5 spheres.Some are sinks, some are sources
The ocean is by far the largest surface reservoir for carbon.
Moving fossil carbon, which is in long-term cycle, to the short-term cycle
The burning of fossil fuels represents a one-way flow of carbon from the long- to the short-term reservoirs.The problem is there a one way flow, thanks to the ocean absorbed a lot, now becoming more acidic, ability to is slowing down
Like insulation in a houseFeedbacks that regulate or exacerbate – melting ice, increased veg.
IPCC – leading authorityWhat’s good: we control emissionsEmissions scenarios: pop, tech and affluenceWhat’s bad: we’re on the steepest track, quality of life, chinaOf course, many uncertainties: Complex earth system, feedbacks, sinks, sources
More extreme weather, more drought, more flood, higher Ts, etc…
Changes -- risksThrough historical data and modeling to highlight three primary climate hazards that NYS has and will continue to face.
One of our state’s best temp record is from the sewage plant in Pok. It goes back over a hundred years.They have measured and recording temperatures at the Poughkeepsie Sewage Treatment Plant for over 100 years. This serves as evidence of increasing average temps in the Mid-Hudson Valley.
Heavy downpour events have become more frequent in recent decades in New York State 74% since 1960. Projections indicate total annual precipitation is projected to increase only slightly. Overall, we can expect more dry periods intermixed with heavy rain events and decreased snow cover in the winter.
Here are annual precipitation data for Pok since 1895. You can see there’s more variability across years.-lines not statistically significant, just show how the range of precip has increased over time. More recently we see wetter years intermixed with drier years. Earlier in the century variation much smaller.
Risks
If you live in a house for 30 yrs (the typical mortgage), there is a 30% chance you will experience a 100-yr flood
Remember the estimates??Present day, with 100 year flood72” SLR will be like the 100 year flood all of the time
So, now that we all understand the potential of our future climate here in NYS, what can we do about it?
One way of protecting ourselves is to build in resilience. One definition is: It’s the ability to live and thrive under a wide range of conditions.Being able to adapt to change, minimize damage and bounce back quickly.Photo source: http://www.smhcs.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/blog-resilient.jpg
Hurricanes Irene and Sandy focused our attention on flooding risks in NYS. Right here in Kingston we have serious flooding risks along the waterfront. Here is a photo from Irene, you can see the maritime museum and the steelhouse.Point out Rondout, HR, street. Not just riverfront but waterfront. Applies to tributary communities.More pics?
Once they understand the risks they can start to imagine solutions. In general, you can think of three overarching adaptation routes: you can protect, accommodate, or retreat. Which strategies you choose will be determined by the values and goals of your community. Think about issues like economic development, recreation, security and ecological resources.
Protecting means building hard barriers between you and the water. This has been the majority of our flooding solutions in the past. The problem is, they only protect up to a certain point and can lead to a false sense of security. This is a levee in NOLA.Is this really Beacon?
Accommodate means living with the water and reducing its impact. Here is an example of a permeable park that allows water storage and inundation. On the right is the riverwalk in Tarrytown that is designed to flood but also allows for human enjoyment and recreation along the river.
This is an example of flooding accommodation right here in Kingston.
Finally, there is strategic retreat where people move built spaces out of the high risk flood zones. This is happening now in Staten Island where whole communities are accepting buyouts to relocate.Is that pic from Cold Spring?
This is the same stretch of buildings as in the CBA model
Bulkhead. Expensive, may eventually be overtopped
Vegetated revetment, floodproofed buildings.
You can imagine a scenario where damage has become so costly and repetitive that relocation makes economic sense. Notice higher elevation homes in the back. This can still become a recreational destination and provide economic benefits.