Legacy Foresight presented at the IoF Northern Legacy Marketing Group, March 2017. Covering the legacy market, trends, market drivers and the differences in legacy giving to charities in the North and South, this presentation gives a detailed overview of the UK legacy market and its future.

1. Where next
for legacies?

2. Introducing Legacy Foresight

3. 19 Extra Large
£20m+
20 Large
£8-20m
44 Medium
<£8m
Cause area % covered
Health 61
Animal 80
Development 82
Conservation 73
Disability 69
Armed Forces 74
Children 84
‘Other’ 56
Our flagship programme

4. Recent trends

5. 1992 - 2012
Deaths
Legacies-0.9%
1.5%

6. Deaths now rising

7. 2012 - 2016
Deaths Legacies
2.4%
1.4%

8. Market mirrors economy
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Average
annual growth
4.7
%
p.a.
Recession Boom Recession Recovery

9. House prices drive residuals
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
Average house price (2002:1 = 100) UK legacy income (£bn)

10. The North-South divide

11. North = 16% of UK income
South East, 28
South West, 12
East, 11North
West, 8
Greater London,
8
Scotland, 7
East
Midlands, 7
West Midlands,
6
Yorkshire &
Humberside, 6
Wales, 4
North East, 2Northern
Ireland, 1

12. % estates with charitable gift
South West 17%
South 15%
East 14%
North East 12%
North West 11%
North 11%

13. House price gap widens
South
Up
North
Flat

14. Winners and losers

15. Samaritans
£3.0m
St John
Ambulance
£1.9m
Oxfam
£13.8m
Help for Heroes
£8.2m
Breast Cancer
Care
£0.5m
RSPCA
£64m
RNLI
£113m
Macmillan
£62m
CRUK
£169m
BHF
£61m
Top 5 = 25% of total income

16. David v Goliath
£1-8m >£20m
2.3%
8.1%

17. Younger causes gain a toehold
3.4
4.1
1.7
0.9
9.5%
4.3%
2.8%2.5%
Victorian Early C20th Post War 1970+
Income £m
Growth p.a.

18. Leading and lagging sectors
Older People
Advancement
of religion
Domestic
poverty relief
Children
Heritage
Animal
welfare
Overseas
development
Disability
Hospices
Environment
Medical
conditions
Arts
Armed forces
NHS Trusts
Emergency
services
Education
Slow Fast

19. Ten fastest legacy leaders

20. The next five years

21. A nation divided

22. A hard Brexit?

23. UK break-up??

24. The Trump effect???

25. A Northern Powerhouse?

26. Good growth despite Brexit
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500 2004:2
2004:4
2005:2
2005:4
2006:2
2006:4
2007:2
2007:4
2008:2
2008:4
2009:2
2009:4
2010:2
2010:4
2011:2
2011:4
2012:2
2012:4
2013:2
2013:4
2014:2
2014:4
2015:2
2015:4
2016:2
2016:4
2016
growth:
10.3%

27. Due to healthy residual values
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2004:2
2004:4
2005:2
2005:4
2006:2
2006:4
2007:2
2007:4
2008:2
2008:4
2009:2
2009:4
2010:2
2010:4
2011:2
2011:4
2012:2
2012:4
2013:2
2013:4
2014:2
2014:4
2015:2
2015:4
2016:2
2016:4
2016
growth:
5.5%

28. … and uplift in legacy volumes
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
54,000
2004:2
2004:4
2005:2
2005:4
2006:2
2006:4
2007:2
2007:4
2008:2
2008:4
2009:2
2009:4
2010:2
2010:4
2011:2
2011:4
2012:2
2012:4
2013:2
2013:4
2014:2
2014:4
2015:2
2015:4
2016:2
2016:4
2004 – 2012
0.7%
p.a.
2012 – 2016
2.6%
p.a.

29. Long term outlook

30. Deaths climb from 2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Pre-1930 War Babies Boomers Generation X Generation Y

31. Boomers more open to idea
11
17
18
22
19
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
50-69 70+
Have charitable will May add gift later May make charitable will later

32. Concerns for next generation
25
19 20 19
26 27
32
-41 -42
-40
-42 -41
-46
-40
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
All 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Better off Worse off

33. A slight reduction in income
0
1
2
3
4
5
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Forecast - February 2016 Forecast - August 2016

34. Legacy Monitor
• Performance benchmarking, market analysis
• Runs January to December
• Recruitment September to November
• 83 charities (15 <£2m legacy income)
• £4,400+VAT p.a.
• New joiners get 50% discount in first year

35. In Memory Insight
• Donor research, case studies, benchmarking
• Different themes each year
• Runs July to June
• Recruitment April to June
• 50 charities this year
• National charities : £2,200+VAT p.a.
• Hospices : £1,100+VAT p.a.
• New joiners pay double in first year to
access past reports

36. For more information
www.legacyforesight.co.uk
@talkinglegacies
@talkinginmemory

37. LegacyForesight
Legacy Foresight are Europe’s foremost analysts of the
legacy and in-memory giving sectors.
We appraise the state of the markets, produce income
forecasts and research into donor motivations.
With over twenty years experience, we work with over one
hundred leading charities across Europe.
Authoritative Benchmarking
Trusted Forecasts
Stimulating Research
Illuminating Consultancy

38. Legacy
Foresight
www.legacyforesight.co.uk
Ashingate
East Chiltington
East Sussex
BN7 3AU
020 3286 5275
How are we performing?
Legacy Monitor is our flagship benchmarking service, in operation since 1998. By drawing directly
on our clients’ databases, we present the very latest intelligence on legacy incomes, notifications
and values. Each client receives tailored reports, comparing their performance against their peers -
whether by cause area, age or size.
What’s in the pipeline?
Our forecasting team can project the number and value of gifts you receive over the next five years.
Alongside our central forecasts, we provide optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, to help with
financial planning and risk management. These are backed up by clear commentaries, aimed at
busy managers and trustees.
What’s on the horizon?
Our scenario-building service provides an objective view of your future direction and potential.
Drawing on our strategic planning skills and sector knowledge, we overlay your organisation's
positioning, performance and plans with deep-rooted market trends, to create a spectrum of
future possibilities.
What do our donors think?
We manage bespoke research projects to explore emerging issues. Some projects are
commissioned by specific charities, while others are funded by groups of clients, who share their
experience, insights and data. This collaborative approach not only cuts costs; it can also save time
and create opportunities for joint campaigning.