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UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO

   UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




                          National Guard
                         Black Belt Training

                             Module 30

                             Basic Tools

                                               UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO

                                                   UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
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CPI Roadmap – Analyze
                                                             8-STEP PROCESS
                                                                                                       6. See
   1.Validate          2. Identify           3. Set          4. Determine          5. Develop                           7. Confirm    8. Standardize
                                                                                                      Counter-
      the             Performance         Improvement            Root               Counter-                             Results        Successful
                                                                                                      Measures
    Problem               Gaps              Targets              Cause             Measures                             & Process        Processes
                                                                                                      Through

        Define                  Measure                      Analyze                            Improve                        Control



                                    ACTIVITIES                                     TOOLS
                                                                             • Value  Stream Analysis
                       •   Identify Potential Root Causes                    • Process Constraint ID
                       •   Reduce List of Potential Root                     • Takt Time Analysis
                           Causes                                            • Cause and Effect Analysis
                                                                             • Brainstorming
                       •   Confirm Root Cause to Output
                                                                             • 5 Whys
                           Relationship
                                                                             • Affinity Diagram
                       •   Estimate Impact of Root Causes                    • Pareto
                           on Key Outputs                                    • Cause and Effect Matrix
                                                                             • FMEA
                       •   Prioritize Root Causes
                                                                             • Hypothesis Tests
                       •   Complete Analyze Tollgate                         • ANOVA
                                                                             • Chi Square
                                                                             • Simple and Multiple
                                                                               Regression


                       Note: Activities and tools vary by project. Lists provided here are not necessarily all-inclusive.    UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
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 Learning Objectives
          Generate ideas to help determine root causes and
           improve our processes
          Organize ideas so we can understand them
          Prioritize ideas so that we can get the most leverage
           from them
          Use Minitab for some of these tools




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 Generating, Organizing and Assessing Ideas
          The basic tools covered in this section center around
           idea generation as well as organizing and assessing
           those ideas
          We use these tools to generate ideas to help us
           determine the potential root causes (Xs) that are
           impacting the output (Y) of our process
          We may also need to use some of these same tools
           to generate improvement ideas later after critical
           causes have been identified



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 Application Examples
          Information Technology – CPU usage is too high
           at peak times. The IT manager needs to investigate
           how to increase capacity and/or shift usage
          Transportation – Team wants to explore creative
           ways to reduce shipping costs
          Recruiting – Manager needs to determine why cycle
           time to hire federal technicians is so long




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 Basic Tools


                                                                          Force-Field
                                                                           Analysis                 Affinity Diagrams
               Goal
                                            Casing Defect Tracking
                           Defect Mon. Tue. Wed. Thurs. Fri. Week Total % of Total
                           Scratch ll  lll  ll   lll      llll      14       67%
                           Dent l                l        l           3      14%
                           Chip l      l                  l           3      14%
                           Bend             l                         1       5%
                                                   Total Defects    21




                                Check Sheets                                                 Brainstorming                          Cause & Effect

           Process Map                                                                                          1 Item Number
                                                                                                              Card Rating Value 6

                                                                                                                  Idea Scores
                                                                                                             Idea 1        Totals
                                                                                                              8,8,6,7,8,2   6/ 39
                                                                                                             Idea 2

                                                                                                      Nominal Group
                                                                                                              6,5,4,7,3
                                                                                                             Idea N
                                                                                                                            5/ 25



                                                                                     Pareto Chart       Technique
                                                                                                              3,2,2,1       4/ 8




         Idea Generation
         and Assessment




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 Brainstorming
          What
                A structured method of generating unconstrained ideas
                 and gaining engagement/involvement in the
                 improvement process
                Used in the Analyze phase to identify and prioritize root
                 causes
                Used in the Improve phase to identify and prioritize
                 solutions




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 Brainstorming
          Why
                Brainstorming produces many ideas in a short
                 time
                Facilitates the creative thinking process
                Separates idea generation from the organizing
                 and assessment of the ideas




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 Brainstorming
         How
            Review the problem definition
            Clarify the goal/question and provide any relevant information
            Encourage creativity
            Give everyone a few minutes of silence to think about the question and
             individually write down some ideas (Note: for ease of consolidation later, it
             is useful to use Post-its, recording only one idea on each Post-it)
            Gather ideas, round-robin, one-at-a-time and hand in the Post-it
            Place Post-its on flip-chart and post the filled in sheets on the wall for all to
             see (and use as a basis for further ideas)
            Do not discuss ideas until the session is complete


                      Tip: Establish guidelines for effective brainstorming
                              with the team before getting started


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 Brainstorming
      How            (Cont.)
            Encourage participants to continue to write down additional ideas as they
             think of them
            Continue until everyone is out of ideas
              Write down every idea
              Can use the Cause & Effect Diagram to avoid “Group Think” and assure a
               balanced brainstorming session
              Take a break from the creative portion and prepare for the organize portion
               (Note: Can use the Affinity Diagram to organize ideas into groups)
              Answer questions, get clarification of ideas, ask for more specific
               information, where needed
              If new ideas arise during organize portion, record them
            Consolidate similar ideas and discuss the complete set of ideas
            Again, clarify ideas and how they are grouped until the team is satisfied
            Use other basic tools in this module to assist in prioritization

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Guidelines for Effective Brainstorming
             Rapid generation is the aim
             No such thing as “wild” or “bad” ideas
             No evaluation of ideas
             Chaos can be fun
             Always forget to combine
             Everyone gets a voice
             Build on others’ ideas
             No personal attacks, blaming, or complaining
             No turf, rank or monuments
             Laughter fans the flames of creativity – have fun!


                         Quantity Over Quality!
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 Why We Should Use a Team-Based Process?
        What’s good about it?                     What’s bad about it?
          Involves everyone                         Slower to get through (but
          Gets all current root                      you only go through it once)
           cause ideas on the table                    Takes more resources up front
                                                        (more participants)
          Stimulates innovation
           (new ideas)
          Contributes to consensus
           and buy-in
          Helps take personalities
           out of the process
          Captures subject-matter
           expertise and process
           knowledge
          Provides structure for
           participants
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 Challenge Assumptions
          Everyone brings assumptions to the table. Such
           assumptions can reflect what we know or, as is often
           the case, what we think we know about what is
           causing a problem
          Challenging conventional assumptions about your
           problem can help you turn obstacles into
           opportunities
          Work to escape the self-imposed constraints that
           traditional assumptions often create



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 Obstacles to Creative Thought
          Staying in our box
          Not challenging existing paradigms
          Not challenging assumptions
          Fear of being wrong
          The search for the “right” answer
          Focusing on logical thought
          Judging ideas before they are formed
          Psychological inertia

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 Random Word
    This technique helps teams approach problems from different perspectives rather
     than through patterned ways of thinking
    Pick a word, any word, and use what comes to mind to see if it applies to your
     problem
    For example, what comes to mind when you think of the word “Satellite” as it
     relates to an Accounts Receivables problem? (e.g., e-Payment)
    When that word is exhausted, pick another word
                           Accounts Receivable (First Word: Satellite)
                1               2             3             4              5

          1     Skeleton        Room          Treadmill     Oven           Filter
          2     Valley          Fruit         Library       Purse          Molecule
          3     Maze            Water         Air           Earth          Money
          4     Tunnel          Altar         Diamond       Army           Computer
          5     Amoeba          Anvil         Bait          Balloon        Bible

         6      Algebra         Alphabet      Child         Lamp           Leg
         7      Menu            Prison        Monster       Muscle         Nest
         8      Pepper          Pill          Satellite     Pod            Ring
         9      Rainbow         Rudder        Safe          Sauce          Saloon
        10      Ice             Index Key     Ladder        Landslide      Lever
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 Random Personality
    Similar  to Random Word, this technique also helps teams approach problems from
      different perspectives rather than through patterned ways of thinking
    Pick a well known personality, real or imaginary, and use what comes to mind to
     see if it applies to your problem
    For example, “How would Mickey Mouse approach this?” – “have fun,” “control
     crowds,” etc.
    When that personality is exhausted, pick another personality




         General Patton          Genghis Kahn               Mickey Mouse
         Fay Ray                 Madonna                    The Beatles
         Bill Gates              Jack Welch                 Our General
         Sgt. Smith              Spiderman                  Superman
         Batman                  Harry Potter               Frodo
         JFK                     Pres. Bush                 Winston Churchill
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 Brainstorming Takeaways
          Brainstorming is a structured method of generating
           unconstrained ideas and gaining engagement and
           involvement in the process
          Brainstorming produces many ideas in a
           short time
          Brainstorming facilitates the creative thinking process
          Brainstorming separates idea generation from the
           organizing, assessment and prioritization of the ideas
           that are generated


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Cause and Effect Diagram

          What
                Represents the relationship between an effect
                 (problem) and its potential causes.
                Categorizes causes and drills down to root cause
                Often called Fishbone or Ishikawa diagram




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 Cause and Effect Diagram Purpose
          Why brainstorm using C&E Diagram?
                To help ensure that a balanced list of ideas have been
                 generated during brainstorming
             Sort and relate the factors affecting a process while
              little quantifiable data is available
             Assist discussion when determining root causes
             To determine the real cause of the problem (as
              opposed to a symptom of the problem)
             To refine brainstormed ideas into more detailed causes
             To identify a team's level of understanding



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 Cause and Effect Diagram Method
        How
              Name the problem or effect of interest – Put in form of a question
              Decide the major categories for causes. Categories may include:
                 the 6 M’s: manpower (or personnel), machines, materials, methods,
                  measurements, and mother nature (or environment)
                 DOTMLPF – Doctrine, Organization, Training, Material, Leadership &
                  Education, Personnel, Facilities
                     See next page for other category ideas
              Brainstorm for more detailed causes. Ask "why" each major cause
               happens at least 5 times
              Eliminate causes that do not apply




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 C&E (Fishbone) Diagram – Possible Categories

           Method              Description
           Brainstorm Method   Have the team brainstorm possible causes, create a list, segment the ideas into major
                               categories, name the categories and use them as the major bones

           6 M Method           Man   (Personnel)
                                Methods

                                Measurements

                                Machines

                                Materials

                                Mother     Nature (Environment)
           4 P Method           Place

                                People

                                Procedures

                                Policies

           4 S Method           Surroundings

                                Suppliers

                                Systems

                                Skills

           Process Method      If you are working with a process, break the process down into its major activities and
                               assign each activity as a major bone


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 Cause and Effect Diagram Method
          How (Cont.)
                Discuss the causes and decide which are most
                 important
                Work on most important root causes
                Brainstorm for more ideas in those categories that
                 contain fewer items - this helps counter the “theme” or
                 “group think” effect common in brainstorming
                Perform another iteration to determine root causes, if
                 necessary




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 More on the “Theme” Effect
      Very     often, brainstorming sessions tend to go off in a
          particular direction based on a common “theme” or a
          thread of thinking
      One    or two good ideas get the rest of the group thinking
          along those lines
      The    rest of the brainstorming session continues along this
          “theme”
      The     Cause & Effect diagram helps overcome the “theme”
          effect by allowing the group to visualize the categories into
          which their ideas fall
      The   group can then be redirected to focus on generating
          more ideas in those categories that contain fewer ideas

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 Refine Brainstormed Ideas to the Root Cause
                                Ask "Why?" 5 Times



                                            Why do CPI projects take so long?
                                            1. Why? Teams don’t have time to work on project
                                                  2. Why? Other activities have not been
                                                   cleared from their duties
                                                          3. Why? Project Sponsor and other
                                                       affected managers not aware that they
                                                       need to make this happen
                                                                 4. Why? Project Sponsor and
                                                           other affected managers have not
                      ________________                     attended Project Sponsor Workshop
                      1. Why?                                           5. Why? . . .
                         2. Why?
                            3. Why?
                               4. Why?
                                  5. Why?


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  Cause and Effect Diagram Example
            Man                              Machine                               Method
  Incomplete                     50 Cal Sniper
  Training                    Targeting sys.
        Vision                                 M-16                  Prone Position
                                   Targeting sys.
             Breathing                                  M-4                       Supported
  Conditioning                         Targeting sys.                             Kneeling Position
  Prior Activity                                      M-24 Sniper
                                              Targeting sys.                            Unsupported
            Desire / Motivation
         Moral Objection                                       Shotgun                  Standing Position
                                                      Targeting sys.                                                  Effect:
                Survival
                                                                                                                 Why are there
                Factory Ammo
            Projectile type                                                                   Wind
                                                                                                                   too many
           Armor Piercing                                                          Cross Wind                    missed targets
            Tracer Round                      Pre-measured distance
            Target Round                                                        Head Wind
   Projectile Grain weight                                                   Tail Wind
                 130 Gr.               laser distance finder          Lighting Conditions
                 160 Gr.                                                 Daylight
 Custom Ammo                                                      Dusk / Dawn
 Projectile Type            Visual Range Estimation               Night or
Projectile Gr. Wt.                                                Minimal light


         Material                         Measurement                       Mother Nature

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 Cause and Effect Diagram - Software
         Software programs are available that allow Cause and Effect Diagrams
          to be created electronically.
               This feature can be found in Minitab in the following location:
     Stat>Quality Tools>Cause-and-Effect…
                                                                  Can also use
                                                                 Microsoft Visio
                                                                    or Excel




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 Exercise: Prepare a Cause & Effect Diagram
    Objective
           Create a Fishbone diagram for the GGA's Budget Department
    Instructions
          Write problem statement in the form of a question – “What is
           causing…?”
          Select categorization method
          Brainstorm ideas
          Clean up ideas (duplicates, NAs), get clarity, add others
          Ask “5 Whys” to get to root cause – fatten the fish!
          Highlight most significant root causes for further analysis

                                   Time = 30 Minutes



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 Cause & Effect Diagram Takeaways
          Represents the relationship between an effect (problem) and its
           potential causes and categorizes causes
          Helps ensure that a balanced list of ideas have been generated during
           brainstorming
          Helps us overcome the “theme” or “group think” effect
          Sorts and relates the factors affecting a process while little
           quantifiable data is available
          Serves as a discussion guide to assist in determining root causes
          Helps determine the real cause of the problem as opposed to just
           highlighting a symptom of the problem
          Helps refine brainstormed ideas into more detailed causes
          Helps identify a team's level of understanding

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 Nominal Group Technique (NGT)
          What
                A technique that supplements brainstorming.
                A structured approach to generate additional ideas,
                 survey the opinions of a small group and prioritize
                 brainstormed ideas

                                 1 Item Number
                               Card R ating Value 6

                                  Idea Scores
                             Idea 1        Totals
                              8,8,6,7,8,2             6/ 39
                             Idea 2
                              6,5,4,7,3               5/ 25
                             Idea N
                              3,2,2,1                 4/ 8




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 Nominal Group Technique Purpose
          Why
                NGT produces many ideas in a short time
                Structured to focus on problems (not people), to open
                 lines of communication and to tolerate conflicting ideas
                Builds consensus and commitment to the final result -
                 especially good for highly controversial issues
                NGT is most often used after a brainstorming session
                 to help organize ideas into groups and prioritize
                 ideas/groups



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 Nominal Group Technique Method
          How
                If still necessary, process and clarify ideas from
                 brainstorming – duplicates are eliminated, similar ideas
                 are combined
                Limit discussion to brief explanations and brief
                 agreement statements - focus on clarification of
                 meaning, not arguing points
                Count the total number of ideas and divide by 5. The
                 result is X




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 Nominal Group Technique Method
      How            (Cont.)
              Prepare a stack of X number of cards for each participant,
               where X = the number identified above. Number the cards
               from 1 to X on the bottom right corner of each card. Give
               each idea a letter. Each person individually chooses their
               highest priority idea and puts that idea’s letter on the card
               with the highest card number. Pick the second priority idea,
               etc. Until all the cards are filled out. The cards have space for
               additional comments which may be contributed anonymously.
              Tabulate scores and present on a Pareto Chart - share the
               added comments with the group
              There are many approaches to NGT - different ranking and
               voting procedures can be used

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 Nominal Group Technique Worksheet

                 Item Letter                                         Item Letter
  Comments                                                Comments


                               Card Value                                          Card Value


                 Item Letter                                         Item Letter
  Comments                                                Comments


                               Card Value                                          Card Value


                 Item Letter                                         Item Letter
  Comments                                                Comments


                               Card Value                                          Card Value




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 Nominal Group Technique Takeaways
          NGT supplements brainstorming. It is a structured
           approach to generate additional ideas, survey the
           opinions of a small group, and prioritize brainstormed
           ideas
          Structured to focus on problems, not people; to open
           lines of communication; tolerate conflicting ideas
          Builds consensus and commitment to the final result.
           Especially good for highly controversial issues
          NGT is most often used after a brainstorming session
           to help organize ideas into groups and prioritize
           ideas/groups
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 Affinity Diagram
          What
                A tool for organizing facts, opinions and issues into
                 natural groups as an aid to diagnosing a complex
                 problem.
                The inputs are listed on cards which are then
                 rearranged until useful groups are identified




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 Affinity Diagram Purpose
          Why
                To help organize
                To help develop central themes
                When information about a problem is not well
                 organized
                When a breakthrough is needed beyond traditional
                 thinking




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 Affinity Diagram Method
          How
                Assemble the right team
                Clearly state the problem to be addressed
                Brainstorm ideas and place on Post-its
                Clearly display cards on wall as ideas are generated
                Without talking, team sorts Post-its into related groups
                Create headers for the groups on additional Post-its
                Draw the completed diagram




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 Affinity Diagram Example




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 Affinity Diagram Takeaways
          A tool for organizing facts, opinions and issues into
           natural groups as an aid to diagnosing a complex
           problem
          Helpful when a breakthrough is needed
          Helps organize ideas, concepts and/or facts
          Allows the development of central themes




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 Force-Field Analysis
          What
                A tool to assist in examining the driving and restraining
                 forces of change that will impact a situation
                A tool to help a team understand the forces that keep
                 things the way they are

                             Driving Forces                 Restraining Forces




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 Force-Field Analysis Purpose
          Why
                To force creative thinking focused on the issues of
                 change
                To build organizational consensus concerning the
                 forces for, and the barriers to, change
                To provide an entry point into process improvement
                 initiatives




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 Force-Field Analysis Method
          How
                List all of the driving forces and all the restraining
                 forces to change. Brainstorming and/or Nominal Group
                 Technique can be used to assist in list development
                     It may be useful to assign weights to the drivers and restraints
                      to indicate the relative strengths of each
                Establish a plan to eliminate or reduce all restraining
                 forces
                Market and use the driving forces in your
                 implementation planning



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 Force-Field Analysis Example

                           Achieve LSS project results
                      Drivers                                 Restrainers

      Senior leaders are supportive                     Some leaders not engaged
     Belts are motivated to perform                     Sponsors not driving results
       Projects are being completed                     Projects take too long
      Projects have tangible results                    Weak system of rewards
                         Local training




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 Force-Field Analysis Takeaways
          Assists in examining the driving and restraining forces
           of a given change
          Helps a team understand the forces that keep things
           the way they are
          Forces creative thinking focused on the issues of
           change
          Builds organizational consensus concerning the forces
           for and the barriers to change
          Provide an entry point into process improvement
           initiatives
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 Pareto Chart
          A Pareto Chart is a graphical tool to highlight and
           prioritize multiple problems in a process




                                Pareto Chart




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 Pareto Chart Applications
          Human Resources – A Civilian Personnel Office
           Center, CPOC, human resources manager wants to
           know which day of the week the greatest number of
           resumes are received
          Information Technology – The CPI team needs to
           investigate which departments are using the most
           LAN storage
          Accounting – The Morale Welfare & Recreation,
           MWR, manager wants to review late payments by
           customer segment


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 Pareto Chart Purpose
          Pareto Charts help you identify which of your problems are
           most significant, so you can focus improvement efforts on areas
           where the largest gains can be made
          Pareto Charts are a type of bar chart in which the horizontal
           axis represents categories of interest, rather than a continuous
           scale. The categories are often errors, defects or sources or
           causes of errors/defects
          By ordering the bars from largest to smallest, a Pareto Chart
           can help you determine which of the defects comprise the “vital
           few,” and which are the “trivial many.” The height of the bars
           may be based on frequency of occurrence, cost or criticality



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 Pareto Chart – Requisition Receiving Errors
                             Requisitions not Received                                                                 The Pareto chart bars
                                                                                                                        are divided into causes
           40
                                                                                                    100
                                                                                                                        of not Receiving
                                                                                                    80                  Requisitions
           30
                                                                                                                       The vertical axis shows a




                                                                                                          Per c ent
   Count




                                                                                                    60

           20                                                                                                           count of each error type
                                                                                                    40
                                                                                                                       Thered line is a
                                                                                                                        cumulative percentage
           10
                                                                                                    20


             0                                                                                      0
                                                                                                                       “Incorrect Line Item
   Defect
                 Incorrect
                 Line Item
                             Incorrect
                             Document
                                             Incorrect
                                          Dept. of Def.
                                                            Incorrect
                                                            TAC Code
                                                                        Incorrect
                                                                         Mode of
                                                                                          Status
                                                                                         Code not
                                                                                                                        Number” is the most
                                                                                                                        frequent problem,
                  Number      Number     Activity Address               Shipment         Updated
                   (LIN)     (DOCNO)     Code (DODAAC)

    Count
   Percent
                    18
                  42.9
                                15
                               35.7
                                                 4
                                               9.5
                                                                 2
                                                               4.8
                                                                             2
                                                                           4.8
                                                                                             1
                                                                                           2.4
                                                                                                                        representing 42.9% of
   Cum %          42.9         78.6           88.1            92.9        97.6           100.0                          the total errors

    If Requisitions not Received is most important, we should consider focusing our
         improvement efforts on reducing Incorrect Line Item Numbers and
                           Incorrect Document Numbers
                                                                                    Basic Tools                                      UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 48
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Minitab: Pareto Chart Example
         Open the Minitab dataset
          ARFORGEN Progression.MTW
         Background
               The Army Force Generation progression time is too long
               The Army and National Guard are looking for ways to
                shorten the cycle time
               You are a Brigade Operations Officer and you want to
                assess the overall readiness of your Brigade based on
                annual data from the Unit Status Report (USR) system
          Objective
               Identify factor(s) impacting the overall readiness

                                      Basic Tools            UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 49
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Minitab: Pareto Chart Example
   Let’s identify some
   potential factors using
   the annual data from
   the Unit Status Report
   system and a Pareto
   Chart.
   Select Stat>
   Quality Tools>
   Pareto Chart




                             Basic Tools   UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 50
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Minitab: Pareto Chart Example
       The count are located
       in “RAT-CNT” and the
       category labels are in
       “CATEGORY”. Since
       our Labels are in one
       column and our
       frequencies are in
       another, select
       Chart defects table
    Double click on
    C2 CATEGORY and
    C1 RAT-CNT above to
    put the variables here

                      Click on OK
                                    Basic Tools   UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 51
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Minitab: Pareto Chart Example
      The    Unit Status Report data set reveals that the primary factor for
         making the process effective and efficient is to focus on getting Soldiers
         MOSQ, Military Occupational Skill Qualification, in the first year of the
         cycle. This is detailed in the Pareto chart below.
                         Pareto Chart of Variables Influencing the C-Rating for a Unit

                                                                                          100
                           200
                                                                                                           MOSQ and
                                                                                          80
                                                                                                           EQUIP-FMC
                           150
                                                                                                          contribute to
                                                                                          60
                                                                                                            56.8% of




                                                                                                Percent
             Count




                           100                                                                            C-Rating for a
                                                                                          40
                                                                                                              unit.
                            50
                                                                                          20


                             0                                                            0
                     CATEGORY     MOSQ    EQUIP-FMC PACE-FMC AVAILABLE ASSIGNED   SR-GD
                         Count       74       47        29       27        18        18
                       Percent     34.7     22.1      13.6     12.7       8.5       8.5
                        Cum %      34.7     56.8      70.4     83.1      91.5     100.0


                                                               Basic Tools                                UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 52
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Minitab: Pareto Chart Example
          The Pareto chart below details the contribution of each
          component to T-RAT Variable.
                                                  Pareto Chart of T-RAT VARIABLE
                                  100                                                                        100

                                   80                                                                        80




                                                                                                                   Percent
                                   60                                                                        60
                      Count




                                   40                                                                        40

                                   20                                                                        20

                                    0                                                                        0
                                 VAR        L       P         G                   L                     er
                                         ET       SC        TN         SN      ET       DT     TT     th
                                        M       T                     M                O      W
                                                          T         R        -M                      O
                                                        NE        DE       ON
                                                                 R        N
                                                              BO
                               Count       28        20        11       10        10      8      8       5
                              Percent    28.0     20.0      11.0      10.0     10.0     8.0    8.0     5.0
                              Cum %      28.0     48.0      59.0      69.0     79.0    87.0   95.0   100.0


                                                                      Basic Tools                                   UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 53
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Pareto Chart Takeaways
          A Pareto Chart is a visual tool used to help identify
           which problems are most significant, so that
           improvement efforts can be focused where they will
           have the greatest impact
          We can use the Pareto Chart to focus on the area
           where we can have the greatest financial impact in
           the least amount of time, or with the fewest
           resources
          Often we see the “80/20 Rule” – where the majority
           of the errors or defects come from only a small
           fraction of the problems. Pareto Charts help us focus
           our limited resources on those areas where we can
           get the greatest results
                                  Basic Tools          UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 54
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Boxplots
          Boxplots, sometimes called box-and-whisker diagrams, are
           useful for showing the distributional characteristics of data
          Boxplots use the concept of placing the data into quartiles
           (each quartile is 25% of the data)
          Boxplots provide an instant picture of variation and some
           insight into investigation strategies for finding what caused the
           variation
          Shows outliers (data points that are statistically unlikely)
          Allows easy comparison of multiple data sets




                                        Basic Tools               UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 55
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




Key Components of Boxplots
                      4.5                                            Whisker shows range for the
                                                                      top 25% of the data points

                                 Outlier
                      3.5                                            Third Quartile Line


                                                                     Median Line
                      2.5



                                                                     First Quartile Line
                      1.5

                                   1                             2   Whisker shows range for the
                            Inter Quartile Range                     lower 25% of the data points
                            (IQR or Box Length)


      Inter Quartile Range (IQR) = The distance between the Third Quartile Line and the First
      Quartile Line. This includes 50% of your data. Simply stated; IQR = Q3 – Q1

      Outlier = A data point is considered an outlier if it is more than 1.5 x IQR above the
      Third Quartile Line or below the First Quartile Line
                                                   Basic Tools                       UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 56
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Key Components of Boxplots (Cont.)

                                                4.5
                      Invoice processing time




                                                3.5




                                                2.5




                                                1.5

                                                      1                  2
                                                          Associate

      This     boxplot compares the invoice processing times of 2 associates
      Which          associate has the lower median? Larger range?
                                                           Basic Tools       UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 57
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Minitab: Boxplot Exercise
          The Anthony’s Pizza Company wants to look at
           delivery times by store location
          Using a boxplot, create a graph that compares the
           medians and ranges of the different locations
          Open the Minitab file Exercise 235.mtw




                                 Basic Tools         UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 58
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Minitab: Boxplot Exercise
  1.          Select
     Graph>Boxplot




                        Basic Tools   UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 59
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Minitab: Boxplot Exercise




  2. If we are doing just one          3. Double click on C-5 Delivery Time
  Boxplot for Delivery Time            to place it in the Graph Variables box
  make sure the Simple Boxplot         and click on OK
  is selected above, and click on
  OK to go to the next dialog box
                                    Basic Tools                UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 60
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Minitab: Boxplot Exercise

                                        Boxplot of Delivery Time

                                 35.0



                                 32.5
                 Delivery Time




                                 30.0




                                 27.5



                                 25.0




                                                Basic Tools        UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 61
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Minitab: Boxplot Exercise
         But what if we had wanted to compare Boxplots of Delivery Time By Store?




    2. To do multiple Boxplots for           3. Double click on C-5 Delivery Time
    Delivery Time by Store,                  to place it in the Graph Variables box
    make sure With Groups is                 and double click on C-3 Store Location
    selected above, and click on             to put it in the Categorical variables box,
    OK to go to the next dialog box          and then click on OK
                                          Basic Tools                   UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 62
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Minitab: Boxplot Exercise

                                                 Boxplot of Delivery Time

                               35.0



                               32.5
               Delivery Time




                               30.0



                               27.5



                               25.0


                                      Downtown               Midtown        Uptown
                                                          Store Location


                                                         Basic Tools                 UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 63
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




Cause & Effect Diagram Template
             Materials                           Manpower                 Facilities & Equipment
                                                                                                        Wrong Location
          Space
 Lack of Seats                No Standardization of seats            Lack of Knowledge             Old Buildings

                                            Inequality in seats                                      New Codes
 Lack of Funds     Lack of Controls                                                                                       Not Suited for
                                                                            “Dedicated” to Task
                                                        Senior Leader                                                     Current Mission (Type of Space)
         No Suitable space to Assign
        Getting Seats Takes Time
                                                                                                                                 (Y) Effect:
                                       Vague
                                       Reqmts
                                                          Lack of Database                                                      PLT = 5 days
                                                                    People               Unplanned Programs
        Multiple Paths                                         Facilities                                                      (why too long)
                                                   Location (Competing for
                                                            Same Space)

                                       Lack of Controls
                                                                          Senior Leadership                             - Example -
 Delays in elevating                                                                                Too Long (Time)
                              Collocation
Impasse issues                                                    Mold, HVAC Crashes
                                                                                                                   Approvals
         Methods                                  Mother Nature              Measurements
                            CAO/IPT                                                                                                Time Avail to
                                                  Unforeseen                                              Funding Decision         Wait
                                                  Circumstances
                             Competency vs. PMA


                                                                                          Required Deliverable                 UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




Pareto Plot Analysis Template
                                          Pareto Chart

                                                                                              100
                      150
                                                                                              80


                                                      - Example -




                                                                                    Percent
                      100                                                                     60
          Count




                                                                                              40
                       50
                                                                                              20

                            0                                                                 0
                                  ut h      r th             t               e rs
                                So        No          Ea
                                                         s                Oth
                  Defect
                   Count        100       50           15                    6
                  Percent       58.5     29.2         8.8                  3.5
                  Cum %         58.5     87.7        96.5                100.0

                  The South and North contain over 80% of the defects. Our
                    project will focus here and not on the East and West.

                                                                 Optional Deliverable
                                                                                   UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Takeaways
         Brainstorming is the backbone of idea generation
         Cause & Effect Charts help us balance our brainstorming among the
          categories and help us to visualize relationships
         Nominal Group Technique helps prioritize brainstormed ideas so that
          attention is focused appropriately
         Affinity Diagrams further organize and group ideas to help us get a better
          grasp on complex processes or large numbers of ideas
         Force-Field Analysis helps us identify the driving and restraining forces of a
          change, so that we can better facilitate the change
         Pareto Charts organize and prioritize information or ideas from the other
          tools, so that we can prioritize our efforts and determine where we need to
          focus our limited resources within the time period available to us
         Boxplots are graphs used to visualize both the median and the range of a
          process and allow for easy graphical comparison of multiple data sets


                                            Basic Tools                   UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 66
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




         What other comments or questions
                   do you have?




                                    UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 References
      Pyzdek,        Thomas, The Six Sigma Handbook, McGraw-Hill,
         2003
      Hildebrand,  David H. & Ott, R. Lyman, Statistical Thinking for
         Managers, Duxbury Press, Pacific Grove, CA, 1998
      Kiemele,   Mark J. & Schmidt, Stephen R. & Berdine, Ronald J.,
         Basic Statistics Tools for Continuous Improvement, Air
         Academy Press, Colorado Springs, CO, 2000
      Schmidt,    Stephen R. & Launsby, Robert G., Understanding
         Industrial Designed Experiments, Air Academy Press,
         Colorado Springs, CO, 2000
      Minitab, Inc. 3081 Enterprise Dr., State College, PA 16801,
         800-448-3555
                                      Basic Tools           UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 68
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 RC ARFORGEN Progression Data Sets
   Dataset                                         DEFINITION
   VARIABLE                                    (reference: AR 220-1)
   CONTROL            The aggregate number of required personnel, equipment on-hand, and
                      the number of collective training events for that year, per unit.
   C-RAT              The degree to which a unit has achieved prescribed levels of fill for
                      personnel, equipment, the operational readiness status of available
                      equipment, and the training proficiency status of the unit.
   S-RAT              Equipment supply status of a unit – equipment on-hand is based on the
                      quantity and type of required equipment that is available to the unit .
   P-RAT              Personnel status of a unit – based on the number and type of required
                      personnel available to the unit for the execution of the wartime or
                      primary mission for which the unit is organized or designed.
   T-RAT              Unit training status is based upon the unit commander’s assessment of
                      the unit’s training proficiency on mission-essential tasks, the number of
                      days required to achieve or sustain full mission-essential task
                      proficiency.
                                                Basic Tools                     UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 69

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NG BB 30 Basic Tools

  • 1. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO National Guard Black Belt Training Module 30 Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 2. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO CPI Roadmap – Analyze 8-STEP PROCESS 6. See 1.Validate 2. Identify 3. Set 4. Determine 5. Develop 7. Confirm 8. Standardize Counter- the Performance Improvement Root Counter- Results Successful Measures Problem Gaps Targets Cause Measures & Process Processes Through Define Measure Analyze Improve Control ACTIVITIES TOOLS • Value Stream Analysis • Identify Potential Root Causes • Process Constraint ID • Reduce List of Potential Root • Takt Time Analysis Causes • Cause and Effect Analysis • Brainstorming • Confirm Root Cause to Output • 5 Whys Relationship • Affinity Diagram • Estimate Impact of Root Causes • Pareto on Key Outputs • Cause and Effect Matrix • FMEA • Prioritize Root Causes • Hypothesis Tests • Complete Analyze Tollgate • ANOVA • Chi Square • Simple and Multiple Regression Note: Activities and tools vary by project. Lists provided here are not necessarily all-inclusive. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 3. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Learning Objectives  Generate ideas to help determine root causes and improve our processes  Organize ideas so we can understand them  Prioritize ideas so that we can get the most leverage from them  Use Minitab for some of these tools Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 3
  • 4. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Generating, Organizing and Assessing Ideas  The basic tools covered in this section center around idea generation as well as organizing and assessing those ideas  We use these tools to generate ideas to help us determine the potential root causes (Xs) that are impacting the output (Y) of our process  We may also need to use some of these same tools to generate improvement ideas later after critical causes have been identified Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 4
  • 5. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Application Examples  Information Technology – CPU usage is too high at peak times. The IT manager needs to investigate how to increase capacity and/or shift usage  Transportation – Team wants to explore creative ways to reduce shipping costs  Recruiting – Manager needs to determine why cycle time to hire federal technicians is so long Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 5
  • 6. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Basic Tools Force-Field Analysis Affinity Diagrams Goal Casing Defect Tracking Defect Mon. Tue. Wed. Thurs. Fri. Week Total % of Total Scratch ll lll ll lll llll 14 67% Dent l l l 3 14% Chip l l l 3 14% Bend l 1 5% Total Defects 21 Check Sheets Brainstorming Cause & Effect Process Map 1 Item Number Card Rating Value 6 Idea Scores Idea 1 Totals 8,8,6,7,8,2 6/ 39 Idea 2 Nominal Group 6,5,4,7,3 Idea N 5/ 25 Pareto Chart Technique 3,2,2,1 4/ 8 Idea Generation and Assessment Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 6
  • 7. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Brainstorming  What  A structured method of generating unconstrained ideas and gaining engagement/involvement in the improvement process  Used in the Analyze phase to identify and prioritize root causes  Used in the Improve phase to identify and prioritize solutions Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 7
  • 8. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Brainstorming  Why  Brainstorming produces many ideas in a short time  Facilitates the creative thinking process  Separates idea generation from the organizing and assessment of the ideas Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 8
  • 9. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Brainstorming  How  Review the problem definition  Clarify the goal/question and provide any relevant information  Encourage creativity  Give everyone a few minutes of silence to think about the question and individually write down some ideas (Note: for ease of consolidation later, it is useful to use Post-its, recording only one idea on each Post-it)  Gather ideas, round-robin, one-at-a-time and hand in the Post-it  Place Post-its on flip-chart and post the filled in sheets on the wall for all to see (and use as a basis for further ideas)  Do not discuss ideas until the session is complete Tip: Establish guidelines for effective brainstorming with the team before getting started Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 9
  • 10. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Brainstorming  How (Cont.)  Encourage participants to continue to write down additional ideas as they think of them  Continue until everyone is out of ideas  Write down every idea  Can use the Cause & Effect Diagram to avoid “Group Think” and assure a balanced brainstorming session  Take a break from the creative portion and prepare for the organize portion (Note: Can use the Affinity Diagram to organize ideas into groups)  Answer questions, get clarification of ideas, ask for more specific information, where needed  If new ideas arise during organize portion, record them  Consolidate similar ideas and discuss the complete set of ideas  Again, clarify ideas and how they are grouped until the team is satisfied  Use other basic tools in this module to assist in prioritization Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 10
  • 11. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Guidelines for Effective Brainstorming  Rapid generation is the aim  No such thing as “wild” or “bad” ideas  No evaluation of ideas  Chaos can be fun  Always forget to combine  Everyone gets a voice  Build on others’ ideas  No personal attacks, blaming, or complaining  No turf, rank or monuments  Laughter fans the flames of creativity – have fun! Quantity Over Quality! Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 11
  • 12. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Why We Should Use a Team-Based Process?  What’s good about it?  What’s bad about it?  Involves everyone  Slower to get through (but  Gets all current root you only go through it once) cause ideas on the table  Takes more resources up front (more participants)  Stimulates innovation (new ideas)  Contributes to consensus and buy-in  Helps take personalities out of the process  Captures subject-matter expertise and process knowledge  Provides structure for participants Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 12
  • 13. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Challenge Assumptions  Everyone brings assumptions to the table. Such assumptions can reflect what we know or, as is often the case, what we think we know about what is causing a problem  Challenging conventional assumptions about your problem can help you turn obstacles into opportunities  Work to escape the self-imposed constraints that traditional assumptions often create Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 13
  • 14. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Obstacles to Creative Thought  Staying in our box  Not challenging existing paradigms  Not challenging assumptions  Fear of being wrong  The search for the “right” answer  Focusing on logical thought  Judging ideas before they are formed  Psychological inertia Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 14
  • 15. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Random Word  This technique helps teams approach problems from different perspectives rather than through patterned ways of thinking  Pick a word, any word, and use what comes to mind to see if it applies to your problem  For example, what comes to mind when you think of the word “Satellite” as it relates to an Accounts Receivables problem? (e.g., e-Payment)  When that word is exhausted, pick another word Accounts Receivable (First Word: Satellite) 1 2 3 4 5 1 Skeleton Room Treadmill Oven Filter 2 Valley Fruit Library Purse Molecule 3 Maze Water Air Earth Money 4 Tunnel Altar Diamond Army Computer 5 Amoeba Anvil Bait Balloon Bible 6 Algebra Alphabet Child Lamp Leg 7 Menu Prison Monster Muscle Nest 8 Pepper Pill Satellite Pod Ring 9 Rainbow Rudder Safe Sauce Saloon 10 Ice Index Key Ladder Landslide Lever Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 15
  • 16. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Random Personality  Similar to Random Word, this technique also helps teams approach problems from different perspectives rather than through patterned ways of thinking  Pick a well known personality, real or imaginary, and use what comes to mind to see if it applies to your problem  For example, “How would Mickey Mouse approach this?” – “have fun,” “control crowds,” etc.  When that personality is exhausted, pick another personality General Patton Genghis Kahn Mickey Mouse Fay Ray Madonna The Beatles Bill Gates Jack Welch Our General Sgt. Smith Spiderman Superman Batman Harry Potter Frodo JFK Pres. Bush Winston Churchill Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 16
  • 17. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Brainstorming Takeaways  Brainstorming is a structured method of generating unconstrained ideas and gaining engagement and involvement in the process  Brainstorming produces many ideas in a short time  Brainstorming facilitates the creative thinking process  Brainstorming separates idea generation from the organizing, assessment and prioritization of the ideas that are generated Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 17
  • 18. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Cause and Effect Diagram  What  Represents the relationship between an effect (problem) and its potential causes.  Categorizes causes and drills down to root cause  Often called Fishbone or Ishikawa diagram Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 18
  • 19. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Cause and Effect Diagram Purpose  Why brainstorm using C&E Diagram?  To help ensure that a balanced list of ideas have been generated during brainstorming  Sort and relate the factors affecting a process while little quantifiable data is available  Assist discussion when determining root causes  To determine the real cause of the problem (as opposed to a symptom of the problem)  To refine brainstormed ideas into more detailed causes  To identify a team's level of understanding Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 19
  • 20. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Cause and Effect Diagram Method  How  Name the problem or effect of interest – Put in form of a question  Decide the major categories for causes. Categories may include:  the 6 M’s: manpower (or personnel), machines, materials, methods, measurements, and mother nature (or environment)  DOTMLPF – Doctrine, Organization, Training, Material, Leadership & Education, Personnel, Facilities  See next page for other category ideas  Brainstorm for more detailed causes. Ask "why" each major cause happens at least 5 times  Eliminate causes that do not apply Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 20
  • 21. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO C&E (Fishbone) Diagram – Possible Categories Method Description Brainstorm Method Have the team brainstorm possible causes, create a list, segment the ideas into major categories, name the categories and use them as the major bones 6 M Method  Man (Personnel)  Methods  Measurements  Machines  Materials  Mother Nature (Environment) 4 P Method  Place  People  Procedures  Policies 4 S Method  Surroundings  Suppliers  Systems  Skills Process Method If you are working with a process, break the process down into its major activities and assign each activity as a major bone UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 22. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Cause and Effect Diagram Method  How (Cont.)  Discuss the causes and decide which are most important  Work on most important root causes  Brainstorm for more ideas in those categories that contain fewer items - this helps counter the “theme” or “group think” effect common in brainstorming  Perform another iteration to determine root causes, if necessary Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 22
  • 23. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO More on the “Theme” Effect  Very often, brainstorming sessions tend to go off in a particular direction based on a common “theme” or a thread of thinking  One or two good ideas get the rest of the group thinking along those lines  The rest of the brainstorming session continues along this “theme”  The Cause & Effect diagram helps overcome the “theme” effect by allowing the group to visualize the categories into which their ideas fall  The group can then be redirected to focus on generating more ideas in those categories that contain fewer ideas Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 23
  • 24. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Refine Brainstormed Ideas to the Root Cause Ask "Why?" 5 Times Why do CPI projects take so long? 1. Why? Teams don’t have time to work on project 2. Why? Other activities have not been cleared from their duties 3. Why? Project Sponsor and other affected managers not aware that they need to make this happen 4. Why? Project Sponsor and other affected managers have not ________________ attended Project Sponsor Workshop 1. Why? 5. Why? . . . 2. Why? 3. Why? 4. Why? 5. Why? Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 24
  • 25. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Cause and Effect Diagram Example Man Machine Method Incomplete 50 Cal Sniper Training Targeting sys. Vision M-16 Prone Position Targeting sys. Breathing M-4 Supported Conditioning Targeting sys. Kneeling Position Prior Activity M-24 Sniper Targeting sys. Unsupported Desire / Motivation Moral Objection Shotgun Standing Position Targeting sys. Effect: Survival Why are there Factory Ammo Projectile type Wind too many Armor Piercing Cross Wind missed targets Tracer Round Pre-measured distance Target Round Head Wind Projectile Grain weight Tail Wind 130 Gr. laser distance finder Lighting Conditions 160 Gr. Daylight Custom Ammo Dusk / Dawn Projectile Type Visual Range Estimation Night or Projectile Gr. Wt. Minimal light Material Measurement Mother Nature Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 25
  • 26. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Cause and Effect Diagram - Software  Software programs are available that allow Cause and Effect Diagrams to be created electronically.  This feature can be found in Minitab in the following location: Stat>Quality Tools>Cause-and-Effect… Can also use Microsoft Visio or Excel Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 26
  • 27. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Exercise: Prepare a Cause & Effect Diagram Objective Create a Fishbone diagram for the GGA's Budget Department Instructions  Write problem statement in the form of a question – “What is causing…?”  Select categorization method  Brainstorm ideas  Clean up ideas (duplicates, NAs), get clarity, add others  Ask “5 Whys” to get to root cause – fatten the fish!  Highlight most significant root causes for further analysis Time = 30 Minutes UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 27
  • 28. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Cause & Effect Diagram Takeaways  Represents the relationship between an effect (problem) and its potential causes and categorizes causes  Helps ensure that a balanced list of ideas have been generated during brainstorming  Helps us overcome the “theme” or “group think” effect  Sorts and relates the factors affecting a process while little quantifiable data is available  Serves as a discussion guide to assist in determining root causes  Helps determine the real cause of the problem as opposed to just highlighting a symptom of the problem  Helps refine brainstormed ideas into more detailed causes  Helps identify a team's level of understanding Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 28
  • 29. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Nominal Group Technique (NGT)  What  A technique that supplements brainstorming.  A structured approach to generate additional ideas, survey the opinions of a small group and prioritize brainstormed ideas 1 Item Number Card R ating Value 6 Idea Scores Idea 1 Totals 8,8,6,7,8,2 6/ 39 Idea 2 6,5,4,7,3 5/ 25 Idea N 3,2,2,1 4/ 8 Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 29
  • 30. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Nominal Group Technique Purpose  Why  NGT produces many ideas in a short time  Structured to focus on problems (not people), to open lines of communication and to tolerate conflicting ideas  Builds consensus and commitment to the final result - especially good for highly controversial issues  NGT is most often used after a brainstorming session to help organize ideas into groups and prioritize ideas/groups Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 30
  • 31. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Nominal Group Technique Method  How  If still necessary, process and clarify ideas from brainstorming – duplicates are eliminated, similar ideas are combined  Limit discussion to brief explanations and brief agreement statements - focus on clarification of meaning, not arguing points  Count the total number of ideas and divide by 5. The result is X Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 31
  • 32. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Nominal Group Technique Method  How (Cont.)  Prepare a stack of X number of cards for each participant, where X = the number identified above. Number the cards from 1 to X on the bottom right corner of each card. Give each idea a letter. Each person individually chooses their highest priority idea and puts that idea’s letter on the card with the highest card number. Pick the second priority idea, etc. Until all the cards are filled out. The cards have space for additional comments which may be contributed anonymously.  Tabulate scores and present on a Pareto Chart - share the added comments with the group  There are many approaches to NGT - different ranking and voting procedures can be used Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 32
  • 33. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Nominal Group Technique Worksheet Item Letter Item Letter Comments Comments Card Value Card Value Item Letter Item Letter Comments Comments Card Value Card Value Item Letter Item Letter Comments Comments Card Value Card Value Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 33
  • 34. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Nominal Group Technique Takeaways  NGT supplements brainstorming. It is a structured approach to generate additional ideas, survey the opinions of a small group, and prioritize brainstormed ideas  Structured to focus on problems, not people; to open lines of communication; tolerate conflicting ideas  Builds consensus and commitment to the final result. Especially good for highly controversial issues  NGT is most often used after a brainstorming session to help organize ideas into groups and prioritize ideas/groups Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 34
  • 35. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Affinity Diagram  What  A tool for organizing facts, opinions and issues into natural groups as an aid to diagnosing a complex problem.  The inputs are listed on cards which are then rearranged until useful groups are identified Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 35
  • 36. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Affinity Diagram Purpose  Why  To help organize  To help develop central themes  When information about a problem is not well organized  When a breakthrough is needed beyond traditional thinking Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 36
  • 37. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Affinity Diagram Method  How  Assemble the right team  Clearly state the problem to be addressed  Brainstorm ideas and place on Post-its  Clearly display cards on wall as ideas are generated  Without talking, team sorts Post-its into related groups  Create headers for the groups on additional Post-its  Draw the completed diagram Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 37
  • 38. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Affinity Diagram Example UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 39. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Affinity Diagram Takeaways  A tool for organizing facts, opinions and issues into natural groups as an aid to diagnosing a complex problem  Helpful when a breakthrough is needed  Helps organize ideas, concepts and/or facts  Allows the development of central themes Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 39
  • 40. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Force-Field Analysis  What  A tool to assist in examining the driving and restraining forces of change that will impact a situation  A tool to help a team understand the forces that keep things the way they are Driving Forces Restraining Forces Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 40
  • 41. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Force-Field Analysis Purpose  Why  To force creative thinking focused on the issues of change  To build organizational consensus concerning the forces for, and the barriers to, change  To provide an entry point into process improvement initiatives Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 41
  • 42. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Force-Field Analysis Method  How  List all of the driving forces and all the restraining forces to change. Brainstorming and/or Nominal Group Technique can be used to assist in list development  It may be useful to assign weights to the drivers and restraints to indicate the relative strengths of each  Establish a plan to eliminate or reduce all restraining forces  Market and use the driving forces in your implementation planning Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 42
  • 43. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Force-Field Analysis Example Achieve LSS project results Drivers Restrainers Senior leaders are supportive Some leaders not engaged Belts are motivated to perform Sponsors not driving results Projects are being completed Projects take too long Projects have tangible results Weak system of rewards Local training Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 43
  • 44. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Force-Field Analysis Takeaways  Assists in examining the driving and restraining forces of a given change  Helps a team understand the forces that keep things the way they are  Forces creative thinking focused on the issues of change  Builds organizational consensus concerning the forces for and the barriers to change  Provide an entry point into process improvement initiatives Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 44
  • 45. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Pareto Chart  A Pareto Chart is a graphical tool to highlight and prioritize multiple problems in a process Pareto Chart Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 45
  • 46. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Pareto Chart Applications  Human Resources – A Civilian Personnel Office Center, CPOC, human resources manager wants to know which day of the week the greatest number of resumes are received  Information Technology – The CPI team needs to investigate which departments are using the most LAN storage  Accounting – The Morale Welfare & Recreation, MWR, manager wants to review late payments by customer segment Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 46
  • 47. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Pareto Chart Purpose  Pareto Charts help you identify which of your problems are most significant, so you can focus improvement efforts on areas where the largest gains can be made  Pareto Charts are a type of bar chart in which the horizontal axis represents categories of interest, rather than a continuous scale. The categories are often errors, defects or sources or causes of errors/defects  By ordering the bars from largest to smallest, a Pareto Chart can help you determine which of the defects comprise the “vital few,” and which are the “trivial many.” The height of the bars may be based on frequency of occurrence, cost or criticality Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 47
  • 48. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Pareto Chart – Requisition Receiving Errors Requisitions not Received  The Pareto chart bars are divided into causes 40 100 of not Receiving 80 Requisitions 30  The vertical axis shows a Per c ent Count 60 20 count of each error type 40  Thered line is a cumulative percentage 10 20 0 0  “Incorrect Line Item Defect Incorrect Line Item Incorrect Document Incorrect Dept. of Def. Incorrect TAC Code Incorrect Mode of Status Code not Number” is the most frequent problem, Number Number Activity Address Shipment Updated (LIN) (DOCNO) Code (DODAAC) Count Percent 18 42.9 15 35.7 4 9.5 2 4.8 2 4.8 1 2.4 representing 42.9% of Cum % 42.9 78.6 88.1 92.9 97.6 100.0 the total errors If Requisitions not Received is most important, we should consider focusing our improvement efforts on reducing Incorrect Line Item Numbers and Incorrect Document Numbers Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 48
  • 49. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Minitab: Pareto Chart Example  Open the Minitab dataset ARFORGEN Progression.MTW  Background  The Army Force Generation progression time is too long  The Army and National Guard are looking for ways to shorten the cycle time  You are a Brigade Operations Officer and you want to assess the overall readiness of your Brigade based on annual data from the Unit Status Report (USR) system  Objective  Identify factor(s) impacting the overall readiness Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 49
  • 50. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Minitab: Pareto Chart Example Let’s identify some potential factors using the annual data from the Unit Status Report system and a Pareto Chart. Select Stat> Quality Tools> Pareto Chart Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 50
  • 51. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Minitab: Pareto Chart Example The count are located in “RAT-CNT” and the category labels are in “CATEGORY”. Since our Labels are in one column and our frequencies are in another, select Chart defects table Double click on C2 CATEGORY and C1 RAT-CNT above to put the variables here Click on OK Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 51
  • 52. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Minitab: Pareto Chart Example  The Unit Status Report data set reveals that the primary factor for making the process effective and efficient is to focus on getting Soldiers MOSQ, Military Occupational Skill Qualification, in the first year of the cycle. This is detailed in the Pareto chart below. Pareto Chart of Variables Influencing the C-Rating for a Unit 100 200 MOSQ and 80 EQUIP-FMC 150 contribute to 60 56.8% of Percent Count 100 C-Rating for a 40 unit. 50 20 0 0 CATEGORY MOSQ EQUIP-FMC PACE-FMC AVAILABLE ASSIGNED SR-GD Count 74 47 29 27 18 18 Percent 34.7 22.1 13.6 12.7 8.5 8.5 Cum % 34.7 56.8 70.4 83.1 91.5 100.0 Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 52
  • 53. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Minitab: Pareto Chart Example The Pareto chart below details the contribution of each component to T-RAT Variable. Pareto Chart of T-RAT VARIABLE 100 100 80 80 Percent 60 60 Count 40 40 20 20 0 0 VAR L P G L er ET SC TN SN ET DT TT th M T M O W T R -M O NE DE ON R N BO Count 28 20 11 10 10 8 8 5 Percent 28.0 20.0 11.0 10.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 5.0 Cum % 28.0 48.0 59.0 69.0 79.0 87.0 95.0 100.0 Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 53
  • 54. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Pareto Chart Takeaways  A Pareto Chart is a visual tool used to help identify which problems are most significant, so that improvement efforts can be focused where they will have the greatest impact  We can use the Pareto Chart to focus on the area where we can have the greatest financial impact in the least amount of time, or with the fewest resources  Often we see the “80/20 Rule” – where the majority of the errors or defects come from only a small fraction of the problems. Pareto Charts help us focus our limited resources on those areas where we can get the greatest results Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 54
  • 55. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Boxplots  Boxplots, sometimes called box-and-whisker diagrams, are useful for showing the distributional characteristics of data  Boxplots use the concept of placing the data into quartiles (each quartile is 25% of the data)  Boxplots provide an instant picture of variation and some insight into investigation strategies for finding what caused the variation  Shows outliers (data points that are statistically unlikely)  Allows easy comparison of multiple data sets Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 55
  • 56. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Key Components of Boxplots 4.5 Whisker shows range for the top 25% of the data points Outlier 3.5 Third Quartile Line Median Line 2.5 First Quartile Line 1.5 1 2 Whisker shows range for the Inter Quartile Range lower 25% of the data points (IQR or Box Length) Inter Quartile Range (IQR) = The distance between the Third Quartile Line and the First Quartile Line. This includes 50% of your data. Simply stated; IQR = Q3 – Q1 Outlier = A data point is considered an outlier if it is more than 1.5 x IQR above the Third Quartile Line or below the First Quartile Line Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 56
  • 57. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Key Components of Boxplots (Cont.) 4.5 Invoice processing time 3.5 2.5 1.5 1 2 Associate  This boxplot compares the invoice processing times of 2 associates  Which associate has the lower median? Larger range? Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 57
  • 58. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Minitab: Boxplot Exercise  The Anthony’s Pizza Company wants to look at delivery times by store location  Using a boxplot, create a graph that compares the medians and ranges of the different locations  Open the Minitab file Exercise 235.mtw Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 58
  • 59. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Minitab: Boxplot Exercise 1. Select Graph>Boxplot Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 59
  • 60. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Minitab: Boxplot Exercise 2. If we are doing just one 3. Double click on C-5 Delivery Time Boxplot for Delivery Time to place it in the Graph Variables box make sure the Simple Boxplot and click on OK is selected above, and click on OK to go to the next dialog box Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 60
  • 61. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Minitab: Boxplot Exercise Boxplot of Delivery Time 35.0 32.5 Delivery Time 30.0 27.5 25.0 Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 61
  • 62. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Minitab: Boxplot Exercise But what if we had wanted to compare Boxplots of Delivery Time By Store? 2. To do multiple Boxplots for 3. Double click on C-5 Delivery Time Delivery Time by Store, to place it in the Graph Variables box make sure With Groups is and double click on C-3 Store Location selected above, and click on to put it in the Categorical variables box, OK to go to the next dialog box and then click on OK Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 62
  • 63. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Minitab: Boxplot Exercise Boxplot of Delivery Time 35.0 32.5 Delivery Time 30.0 27.5 25.0 Downtown Midtown Uptown Store Location Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 63
  • 64. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Cause & Effect Diagram Template Materials Manpower Facilities & Equipment Wrong Location Space Lack of Seats No Standardization of seats Lack of Knowledge Old Buildings Inequality in seats New Codes Lack of Funds Lack of Controls Not Suited for “Dedicated” to Task Senior Leader Current Mission (Type of Space) No Suitable space to Assign Getting Seats Takes Time (Y) Effect: Vague Reqmts Lack of Database PLT = 5 days People Unplanned Programs Multiple Paths Facilities (why too long) Location (Competing for Same Space) Lack of Controls Senior Leadership - Example - Delays in elevating Too Long (Time) Collocation Impasse issues Mold, HVAC Crashes Approvals Methods Mother Nature Measurements CAO/IPT Time Avail to Unforeseen Funding Decision Wait Circumstances Competency vs. PMA Required Deliverable UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 65. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Pareto Plot Analysis Template Pareto Chart 100 150 80 - Example - Percent 100 60 Count 40 50 20 0 0 ut h r th t e rs So No Ea s Oth Defect Count 100 50 15 6 Percent 58.5 29.2 8.8 3.5 Cum % 58.5 87.7 96.5 100.0 The South and North contain over 80% of the defects. Our project will focus here and not on the East and West. Optional Deliverable UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 66. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Takeaways  Brainstorming is the backbone of idea generation  Cause & Effect Charts help us balance our brainstorming among the categories and help us to visualize relationships  Nominal Group Technique helps prioritize brainstormed ideas so that attention is focused appropriately  Affinity Diagrams further organize and group ideas to help us get a better grasp on complex processes or large numbers of ideas  Force-Field Analysis helps us identify the driving and restraining forces of a change, so that we can better facilitate the change  Pareto Charts organize and prioritize information or ideas from the other tools, so that we can prioritize our efforts and determine where we need to focus our limited resources within the time period available to us  Boxplots are graphs used to visualize both the median and the range of a process and allow for easy graphical comparison of multiple data sets Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 66
  • 67. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO What other comments or questions do you have? UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 68. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO References  Pyzdek, Thomas, The Six Sigma Handbook, McGraw-Hill, 2003  Hildebrand, David H. & Ott, R. Lyman, Statistical Thinking for Managers, Duxbury Press, Pacific Grove, CA, 1998  Kiemele, Mark J. & Schmidt, Stephen R. & Berdine, Ronald J., Basic Statistics Tools for Continuous Improvement, Air Academy Press, Colorado Springs, CO, 2000  Schmidt, Stephen R. & Launsby, Robert G., Understanding Industrial Designed Experiments, Air Academy Press, Colorado Springs, CO, 2000  Minitab, Inc. 3081 Enterprise Dr., State College, PA 16801, 800-448-3555 Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 68
  • 69. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO RC ARFORGEN Progression Data Sets Dataset DEFINITION VARIABLE (reference: AR 220-1) CONTROL The aggregate number of required personnel, equipment on-hand, and the number of collective training events for that year, per unit. C-RAT The degree to which a unit has achieved prescribed levels of fill for personnel, equipment, the operational readiness status of available equipment, and the training proficiency status of the unit. S-RAT Equipment supply status of a unit – equipment on-hand is based on the quantity and type of required equipment that is available to the unit . P-RAT Personnel status of a unit – based on the number and type of required personnel available to the unit for the execution of the wartime or primary mission for which the unit is organized or designed. T-RAT Unit training status is based upon the unit commander’s assessment of the unit’s training proficiency on mission-essential tasks, the number of days required to achieve or sustain full mission-essential task proficiency. Basic Tools UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 69