2. Content!
A 6 year revolution
Hot Zone ratio’s
Possession
Position profiling
3. The distant past?
Charles Reep
First meaningful analysis of football
1950-1967
• 90% of all possessions
end in less than 4 passes
4. Comparing Charles Reep’s Analysis
to the modern game
Number of passes before possession is lost
50.0%
Frequency
37.5%
25.0%
12.5%
0.0%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Number of passes
1953-67
Prem league 2012
Spain u21s
7+
5. Premier League Long passing
% long passes - Over 35m
18%
17.3%
16%
16.6%
15%
14%
15.3%
14.2%
12.9%
12%
12.1%
11.9%
10%
8%
2006-7
2007-8
2008-9
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
11. Spain’s Journey
Other Changes
Less Shots -19 to 15
More shots in the area - up to 58%
Less Crosses per game - 12.75 to 9.17
Shot/goal ratio up to 12.6%
14. Ratio of Shots attempted in hot zone v shots conceded
in hot Zone
Season to 23/11/13
Hot zone shot analysis
3
Goal
Difference
Bayern
Athletico M
Man City
20+
Dortmund
Arsenal
Real
2
WBA
Stoke
West Ham
1
0
Barca
10+
Southampton
Chelsea
Spurs
Liverpool
Everton
Man U
Swansea
0+
Newcastle
Aston V Norwich
Cardiff
C.PalaceHull
Sunderland
Fulham
0
100
200
300
400
passes per game
30+
-10
500
600
700
-20
15. Ratio of Shots attempted in hot zone v shots conceded
in hot Zone
Season to 23/11/13
80% shot zone analysis
3
Goal
Difference
Bayern
Athletico M
Man City
20+
Dortmund
Arsenal
Real
2
WBA
Stoke
West Ham
1
0
30+
Barca
10+
Southampton
Chelsea
Spurs
Liverpool
Everton
Man U
Swansea
0+
Teams with a Ratio in excess of 2
Newcastle
Aston V Norwich
Cardiff
C.PalaceHull
Sunderland
Fulham
0
100
200
300
400
passes per game
-10
500
600
700
-20
16. Most prolific Creators in the Hot Zone
9
8.7
8.7
8.6
8.3
7.9
7.8
6
3.8
3
0
Bayern
Dortmund
Man City Real Madrid Athletico
Hot Zone shots
Barca
CCFC 18s
24. Hot Zone Data!
Implications for us!
Performance analysis measure
Hot Zone coaching - Creativity
Coaching Defending the Hot Zone
Scoring Conversion rate
28. Forward Passes
65%
A.Madrid
C.Palace
% Forward
60%
Aston Villa
Stoke
Dortmund
WBA Hull Newcastle
Norwich
Man Utd
Spurs
Fulham
Sunderland
Arsenal
Swansea
Southampton
West Ham
Everton
Cardiff Real
Barca
Chelsea
55%
50%
Liverpool
Bayern
Man City
45%
40%
0
100
200
300
400
500
Pass Count
600
700
800
30. Pass Accuracy
Jaeson Rosenfeld study (StatDna)
Studied 100,000 passes in Brazilian Serie A
Calibrated passes by Difficulty rating
including
• Pass Distance
• Pressure on receiver
• Forward Pass
• Air Pass
• Head Pass
• One Touch pass
31. Pass Accuracy
No discernable difference on the pass quality
Most accurate passers will:
✓ Get in right place to receive
✓ Find pockets with limited pressure
✓ Engineer easier passes by virtue of their
position on the pitch
✓ Accuracy dominated by simplification
32. Pass Accuracy
No discernable difference on
the pass quality
Least accurate passers will:
✓ Be position poor
✓ Dwell on the ball
✓ Poor body shape on
receipt
✓ Over complicate