The next Clean Energy transition requires to revisit the European System Adequacy approach for a proper coordination of the needed generation transition. The enclosed IEEE presentation provides an overview of the associated principles as coordinated through ENTSO-E.

1. Seasonal Adequacy
Robert Schroeder, ENTSO-E
18th IEEE EEEIC and 2nd I&CPS | technical session A1-TS3
Palermo/ Italy; 12. June 2018

2. European power system transformative changes
ENERGY
EFFICIENCY
RENEWABLE
GENERATION
DIGITISATIONE-VEHICLES SMART CITIESSTORAGE
Need for higher system flexibility

3. Different risks addressed at different times
Mid term
Investment decisionsPolicy decisions Operational decisions
MAF
6 months1 year5 years10 years 1 week
REAL TIME
Long term
TYNDP
>10 years
Short term
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES

4. Energy transition requires a robust methodology
High
temporal
volatility
Probabilistic
(hourly)
High
spatial
volatility
Interconnections
(Pan European)

5. 34 years of interdependent
climate data
N random draws for
unplanned outages
34 x N
sample yearsx
Construction of Sample Years

6. Network InfrastructureAvailable Generation
Deterministic Forecast:
• ENTSOs’ Scenarios
• Planned Outages
Stochastic Uncertainty:
• Wind speeds
• Solar radiation
• Unforeseen outages
Demand
Deterministic Forecast:
• ENTSOs’ Scenarios
Stochastic Uncertainty:
• Temperature
Resource Adequacy general approach
Storage

7. Interdependent measures to eliminate distortions
Strong geographical and
technological interdependencies
Need to coordinate and align
activities
Adequacy
Generation
Capacity
Inter-
connection
Flexibility
Demand-
Side
Response
Energy
Efficiency
Storage

8. 8
RiskPreparedness principle implementation
Crisis Methodology
and Crisis Scenarios
(every 4 years and as
needed)
Risk Preparedness
Plans for each
Scenario (every 4
years and as
needed)
Seasonal Outlook &
W-1 down to D-1
adequacy
assessments
Critical grid situation leading to electricity crisis
Critical Grid Situation &
communication process
Incident occurs
Electricity system in
Crisis leading to
Emergency &
Restoration procedure
A Critical Grid Situation is a potential emergency state, identified in the operational planning phase. During Critical Grid Situation available
regular countermeasures are exhausted and therefore TSO(s) are required to take regionally coordinated extraordinary countermeasures. (c.f.
SO GL)

9. Appendixes

10. Resource Adequacy: temporal and spatial granularity
several months
1
year
10
years
1
week
Mid-Term
Resource
Adequacy
Seasonal
Outlook
Short-Term
Adequacy
Mid-Term regional
sensitivity
Seasonal regional
sensitivity
1
day
Pan
European
Intra-week
regional
adequacy
optional
when risk
detectedoptional
Update
inputs
Update
inputs
*Regional/nartional studies focus on detailed modelling of a region while:
• keeping European geographical perimeter outside the region,
• retaining a global Pan European methodology (e.g. probabilistic)
Regional/
National*

11. Regional security coordinators (RSC) services
IGM/CGM
alignment &
merging
Hourly
update
CSA
DACF
CSA
IDCF
D-2
Cap. calc.
Y-1 W-1 D-3 D-2 D-1 D
Y-1 … W-1 Outage Planning Coordination
Daily
update
A
B
D-7 … D-1 „moving window“ Short-Medium Term Advocacy Forecast
C
D
time

12. Target methodology and tool to converge with Mid Term Adequacy Forecast (MAF) with
high challenging timeline for calculation
Contribute to identify crisis scenarios
(cf. Risk Preparedness draft regulation, Art 5)
Further coordination with week ahead adequacy, especially consistent methodology
(cf. Risk Preparedness draft regulation, Art 8)
Seasonal Outlook: beyond 2018

13. Adequacy Forecast – need for flexibility
10.3
9.3 8.4
7.2
5.6 5.4
3.3
2.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4
-9.9
-5.9
-8.6
-5.0 -4.7
-3.6 -3.0
-1.5 -1.8 -1.3 -1.1 -1.5
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
DE TR GB FR ES ITn PL NL NOs SE3 AT BE
HourlyResidualLoadRamps[GW]
Absolute values of hourly residual load ramps (99.9th Percentile)
Source: ENTSO-E – Mid Term Adequacy Forecast 2017, horizon 2025