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5 Ways to Outsmart Your Brain 
And Make Better Product Decisions 
Lauren Gilchrist (@lgilchrist) 
Lean Agile Scotland 2014
About Me 
• Product Manager at Pivotal Labs 
• 6 Years of Startups
Product Decisions are Hard 
• Extreme Uncertainty 
• Incomplete Information 
• Time Sensitive
We’re Good at Intuitive Decisions 
• System 1 
• “Gut Instinct” or “Intuition”
We’re Pretty Good at Logic 
• System 2 
• “Analytical” or “Logical”
But System 1 is Easily Distracted 
• Which Weighs More? 
• 100 Kilos of Bricks 
• 100 Kilos of Feathers
Anatomy of a Bad Decision 
• System 1 “blinks” 
• System 2 snoozes
How System 1 Causes 
Bad Product Decisions 
1. Assumes Causation 
2. Has Selective Hearing 
3. Assumes Others Care 
4. Assumes Others Know 
5. Underestimates Time & Price
1. Assumes Causation
1. Assumes Causation
1. Outsmart Causation Bias 
• Assume correlation, not causation 
• Focus on replicable outcomes 
• Fear what you can’t explain
2. Has Selective Hearing
2. Has Selective Hearing 
• Are users actually engaged for a full hour?
2. Outsmart Confirmation Bias 
• If it sounds too good to be true, it is 
• Validate with your users 
• Validate with your peers
3. Assumes Others Care 
“Nothing in life is as important as you think it 
is when you are thinking about it.” 
- Daniel Kahneman
3. Assumes Others Care
3. Assumes Others Care
3. Outsmart Focusing Effect 
• Use personas to remind you that you are 
not your user 
• Talk to your users
4. Assumes Others Know
4. Assumes Others Know 
• 50 Listeners, 50 Tappers 
• Tappers listen to a song and tap the beat 
• Listeners guess song 
• Half of tappers think listeners will guess 
the song correctly 
• 3% of listeners actually guess correctly
4. Assumes Others Know
4. Assume Others Know
4. Outsmart Curse of Knowledge 
• Get out of the building!
5. Underestimates Time & Price 
• Americans remodeling their kitchens 
expected the job to cost $18,658 
• They ended up paying $38,769
5. Underestimates Time & Price 
• “Estimate when you will finish your thesis” 
• 13% of the students finished by their 50% 
probable date 
• 19% finished by their 75% probable date 
• 45% (less than half!) finished by their 99% 
probable date
5. How to Outsmart 
• Estimate complexity, not time 
• Estimate for others, not yourself 
• Estimate past actions
System 1 Affects Product Decisions 
1. Causation Bias 
2. Confirmation Bias 
3. Focusing Effect 
4. Curse of Knowledge 
5. Planning Fallacy
How to Outsmart System 1 
• Don't let yourself act on intuition 
• Think, don’t blink 
• Practice Lean Experiments
QUESTIONS?
Thank you! 
Lauren Gilchrist 
@lgilchrist 
lgilchrist@pivotal.io

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5 Ways to Outsmart Your Brain and Make Better Product Decisions - Lean Agile Scotland 2014

  • 1. 5 Ways to Outsmart Your Brain And Make Better Product Decisions Lauren Gilchrist (@lgilchrist) Lean Agile Scotland 2014
  • 2. About Me • Product Manager at Pivotal Labs • 6 Years of Startups
  • 3. Product Decisions are Hard • Extreme Uncertainty • Incomplete Information • Time Sensitive
  • 4. We’re Good at Intuitive Decisions • System 1 • “Gut Instinct” or “Intuition”
  • 5. We’re Pretty Good at Logic • System 2 • “Analytical” or “Logical”
  • 6. But System 1 is Easily Distracted • Which Weighs More? • 100 Kilos of Bricks • 100 Kilos of Feathers
  • 7. Anatomy of a Bad Decision • System 1 “blinks” • System 2 snoozes
  • 8. How System 1 Causes Bad Product Decisions 1. Assumes Causation 2. Has Selective Hearing 3. Assumes Others Care 4. Assumes Others Know 5. Underestimates Time & Price
  • 11. 1. Outsmart Causation Bias • Assume correlation, not causation • Focus on replicable outcomes • Fear what you can’t explain
  • 12. 2. Has Selective Hearing
  • 13. 2. Has Selective Hearing • Are users actually engaged for a full hour?
  • 14. 2. Outsmart Confirmation Bias • If it sounds too good to be true, it is • Validate with your users • Validate with your peers
  • 15. 3. Assumes Others Care “Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it.” - Daniel Kahneman
  • 18. 3. Outsmart Focusing Effect • Use personas to remind you that you are not your user • Talk to your users
  • 20. 4. Assumes Others Know • 50 Listeners, 50 Tappers • Tappers listen to a song and tap the beat • Listeners guess song • Half of tappers think listeners will guess the song correctly • 3% of listeners actually guess correctly
  • 23. 4. Outsmart Curse of Knowledge • Get out of the building!
  • 24. 5. Underestimates Time & Price • Americans remodeling their kitchens expected the job to cost $18,658 • They ended up paying $38,769
  • 25. 5. Underestimates Time & Price • “Estimate when you will finish your thesis” • 13% of the students finished by their 50% probable date • 19% finished by their 75% probable date • 45% (less than half!) finished by their 99% probable date
  • 26. 5. How to Outsmart • Estimate complexity, not time • Estimate for others, not yourself • Estimate past actions
  • 27. System 1 Affects Product Decisions 1. Causation Bias 2. Confirmation Bias 3. Focusing Effect 4. Curse of Knowledge 5. Planning Fallacy
  • 28. How to Outsmart System 1 • Don't let yourself act on intuition • Think, don’t blink • Practice Lean Experiments
  • 30. Thank you! Lauren Gilchrist @lgilchrist lgilchrist@pivotal.io