27. 90% 89% 88%
85%
87%
83%
81%
77%
74%
10% 11% 12%
15%
13%
17%
19%
23%
26%
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Racial Composition of the Electorate
National exit poll data
White Nonwhite
28. 90%
8%
2%
1976 Election
White Black Latino
74%
13%
9%
2%
2008 Election
White Black Latino Asian
The Changing Electorate
National exit poll data
43%-55%
47%-52%
34. The perplex: Why not worse?
• A strong base in partisan times
• Personal popularity
• What came before
• The comparative nature of election politics
41. The zeitgeist and the gaffe
• Son of a former chairman of General Motors and
governor of Michigan
• Attained vast wealth as a buyout specialist
• Estates, car elevator, Swiss account, 14% tax rate
• And the gaffe…
42. "There are 47 percent of the people who will vote
for the president no matter what. All right, there
are 47 percent who are with him, who are
dependent upon government, who believe that
they are victims, who believe the government has
a responsibility to care for them, who believe that
they are entitled to health care, to food, to
housing, to you-name-it. ... My job is not to worry
about those people. I'll never convince them they
should take personal responsibility and care for
their lives."
43. 56%
34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Unfairness in the economic system that favors the wealthyOver-regulation of the free market that interferes with growth and pros
Bigger Problem: Unfairness or Over-Regulation
ABC News/Washington Post poll
57. Early contact - efficiency
• Aug. 25
▫ Obama supporters contacted by Obama campaign:
31%
▫ Romney supporters contacted by Romney campaign:
18%
• By Nov. 5
▫ Even, at just fewer than four in 10 apiece
63. Exit Poll Results: Issues
• Favorable: Obama 53%; Romney 47%
• Favors the middle class: Obama +10
• Favors the rich: Romney +43
• Rate economy negatively: 77%
• Blame for the current economy: Bush +15 pts.
▫ Their vote, 85-12%, Obama-Romney
• Trust on economy: Romney +1
• “In touch” with average Americans: Obama +10
▫ Their vote, 91-7%
• “Right direction,” 46%
▫ Their vote, 93-6%, a record
64. Exit Poll Issues II
• Among voters focused on three of four candidate
qualities – vision, shared values, strong leader –
Romney wins by 9 to 23 pts.
• Among voters focused on the fourth – “cares
about people like me” – Obama wins by 63 pts.
65. Exit Poll Results - Demographics
• Whites: 72% of the electorate, a new low
▫ Romney +20 pts.
• Blacks 13%, as ’08. Hispanics 10%, 1st double-digit
▫ Obama +87 pts. among blacks
▫ Obama +44 pts. among Hispanics
• Democrats +6 pts. vs. Republicans
▫ 92% of Dems for Obama, record
▫ 93% of Reps for Romney, ties record
▫ Independents +5 for Romney; no swing
66. Exit Poll Demos II
• Obama +10 pts. among women vs. men
▫ Married men, Romney +22 pts.
▫ Unmarried women, Obama +36 pts.
• 25% liberals, new high
• 35% conservatives, 1 pt. from their high (’84)
• 40% moderates – a new low
• Under 30’s, Obama +23 pts. (vs. +34 in ’08)
• Seniors, Romney +12 pts., new high for a Rep.
67. Conclusions
• Popular vote vs. electoral college? Two words: Ground
game.
• In terms of the economy, Romney wanted this election
to be held a year earlier – and ran like it was.
• Romney apparently thought he could win by not being
Obama. Obama ended up winning by not being Romney.
• The Republican Party ran out of white voters – a
fundamental challenge for its long-term prospects.
• The middle ground in American politics is increasingly
hard to find.
note these are annual averages.peak monthly value was 17.4% in Oct. 2009
again, annual averages.
No update available, right? right.
Thought you might want to add in this one somewhere too. The air of inevitability.Also could note that a fifth (20%) of Republicans thought Obama was going to win, as did nearly three in 10 conservatives (28%). – this from the last data point in the chart.
Cut or move up?
Added 10/16/12 JP.
First debate: Oct 3. Second debate: Oct 16. Third debate: Oct 22.