Booklet final 13

March 8, 2013
Dear Colleagues and Friends,

On behalf of the Lyndon State College Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society
and the National Weather Association (LSC- AMS & NWA), I welcome you to the 38th Annual
Northeastern Storm Conference (NESC) at the Rutland/Killington Holiday Inn in Rutland, Vermont.
The NESC serves as an excellent platform for professionals and students alike to share new ideas
with individuals from all sectors of meteorology. This functions to unify the many facets of the
meteorological community, and to expose students to a wide range of topics and methods. The Saturday
afternoon Panel Discussion offers a unique opportunity for students to gain valuable insights into the
various paths a meteorological career can take.
Our Ice Breaker Speaker on Friday evening is Stephen (Steve) Bennett, J.D. is a founding partner
and Chief Science and Products Officer for EarthRisk Technologies. Steve's leadership role includes
directing EarthRisk's product pipeline as well as providing strategic guidance for the company’s research
portfolio. He also manages the EarthRisk development team and is the company liaison with university
researchers around the world. EarthRisk provides software as a solution for analysts who link weather to
business decisions.
Saturday night’s Banquet Speaker is Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux. An applied climatologist
by training, Dr. Dupigny-Giroux's research interests intersect a number of interdisciplinary fields including
hydroclimatic natural hazards and climate literacy as well as the use of remote sensing and GIS
(Geographic Information Systems) in the fields of spatial climate and land-surface processes. Dr. Dupigny-
Giroux is also the State Climatologist for Vermont, a role which has allowed her to facilitate dialogue
among meteorology, climatology, emergency management, agriculture, forestry and GIS users across the
state.
To close the conference on Sunday morning are speaker is Kevin Skarupa. Meteorologist, Kevin
Skarupa, can be seen weekdays from 5 to 7 a.m. on News 9 Daybreak with Erin Fehlau and Sean
McDonald, then on News 9 at Noon. Kevin earned a meteorology degree from Lyndon State College in
Vermont and currently holds both the AMS Television Seal of Approval and the Certified Broadcast
Meteorologist seal.
The amount of dedication and work various people put into this conference is remarkable. I would
like to thank the entire LSC- AMS & NWA including our faculty advisor, Dr. Nolan Atkins, for their
efforts in making this year’s conference a success. In particular, I would like to acknowledge the LSC-
AMS & NWA executive board who has worked very hard since last spring to bring this wonderful event to
life. Thank you to Sarah Murphy, for designing this year’s booklet cover. As always, the LSC- AMS &
NWA is very thankful to the Lyndon State College Student Government Association, which provides our
annual funding for the NESC, and to the Rutland/Killington Holiday Inn for all of their hard work to ensure
that the weekend runs as smoothly as possible. Last, but certainly not least, I would like to thank all of the
speakers, presenters, vendors, and attendees for all of your spectacular information and insight.
Every year, we rely heavily upon your input in the planning of this conference. With this in mind,
I ask that you please complete the questionnaire enclosed with your registration materials. Positive
feedback and suggestions for improvement would both be greatly appreciated.
We hope that you will find this year’s Northeastern Storm Conference to be a very informative
and rewarding experience, and that you will join us again in 2014!

Warmest Regards,

Jebril Postle
President
Lyndon State College- AMS & NWA

1

38th ANNUAL NORTHEASTERN STORM CONFERENCE

Table of Contents

Agenda…………………………………………………………………………………….2

Panel Discussion..................................................................................................................7

Conference Area Floor Map ...................................... …………………………………….9

Guest List ................................................................................................ ………………..11

Vendors…………………………………………………………………….…………….17

Keynote Speaker Biographies ........................................................................................... 18

Oral Presentation Abstracts............................................................................................... 21

Poster Presentation Abstracts ............................................................................................ 51

Notes…………………………………………………………………….……………….58

38th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

2

38th ANNUAL NORTHEASTERN STORM CONFERENCE AGENDA

FRIDAY 8 MARCH 2013

Centre Foyer

2:00 PM – 8:00 PM Registration and Check-In

Centre Ballroom

8:15 PM – 8:30 PM Opening Remarks

8:30 PM – 9:30 PM Friday Night Ice-Breaker
Speaker: Stephen Bennett, J.D.

Centre Ballroom/Centre Foyer

9:30 PM – 10:30 PM Friday Night Social
Ben & Jerry’s Popsicles will be served


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SATURDAY 9 MARCH 2012

Paynters Restaurant

7:00 AM – 8:00 AM Breakfast

Centre Ballroom

8:10 AM – 8:15 AM Opening Remarks

8:15 AM – 8:30 AM Morning Weather Briefing
By: Eleanor Vallier-Talbot

Tropical Meteorology Session 1 – Climatology Session 1 – CL1
TM1

Governor’s Room Vermont Room

8:30 AM 8:30 AM
TM1.1 On the Actions and Inaction of CL1.1 At Eighty Years Old, Beginning a
the U.S. Weather Bureau During the New Era of Research and Engaged
Great New England Hurricane of 1938. Scholarship at Mount Washington
Lorudes Aviles, Plymouth State
Observatory .Eric Kelsey, Mount
University. Page 21.
Washington Observatory. Page 25.

8:50 AM 8:50 AM
TM1.2 Upper-Level Precursors CL1.2 Diurnal Wind Event
Associated with Subtropical Cyclone Climatology in New Hampshire.
Formation in the North Atlantic Basin. Stephen Quinn and Eric G. Hoffman,
Alicia Bentley, Lance Bosart and Plymouth State University. Page 26.
Daniel Keyser, University at Albany.
Page 22.

9:10AM 9:10AM
TM1.3. Five Linked September (2011) CL1.3 Climatology and Evolution of
Northern Hemisphere Tropical Convective Storms Approaching the
Cyclones: Noru, Talas, Lee, Nate, and Southern Coast of the Northeast U.S.
Katia. Lance Bosart and Kyle Griffin, Kelly Lombardo, Michael Erickson and
University at Albany and University of Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University.
Wisconsin-Madison. Page 23. Page 27.


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9:30AM 9:30AM
TM1.4 The extratropical transition of CL1.4 The Effects of Extreme
TC Dale (1996) and its impact on the Precipitation Events on Climatology.
early 1996-97 wintertime stratospheric Pamela Eck and Nicholas Metz,
circulation. Andrea Lang, Daniel Hobart and William Smith Colleges.
Keyser and Lance F. Bosart, Page 28.
University at Albany. Page 24.

Ethan Allen Room

9:50 AM – 10:30 AM Break and Poster Session
**Forecasts due!**

Tropical Meteorology Session 2 – Climatology Session 2 – CL2
TM2


10:30 AM 10:30 AM
TM2.1 The Evolution of the Large- CL2.1 A Climatology of Central
scale Extratropical Flow Pattern American Gyres. Philippe P. Papin,
Associated with West Pacific Tropical Kyle S. Griffin, Lance F. Bosart, and
Convection Prior to the Genesis of Ryan D. Torn, University at Albany.
Superstorm Sandy.Lawrence C. Page 33.
Gloeckler, University at Albany. Page
29.

10:50 AM 10:50 AM
TM2.2 The Development and Tropical CL2.2 Validation of regional
Transition of an Unnamed High Latitude precipitation indices dynamically
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone. downscaled from ERA-Interim
Nicholas Metz and Alicia Bentley, reanalysis data by a Mesoscale
Hobart and William Smith Colleges and atmospheric model. J.L. Hanrahan,
University at Albany. Page 30. C.C. Kuo and T.Y. Gan Page 34.


5

11:10AM 11:10AM
TM2.3 On the Impacts of Western CL2.3 The Role of the North Altantic
North Pacific Tropical Cyclones on the Thermohaline Circulation As A Possible
Moisture Content of Their Large Scale Trigger For The Younger Dryas
Tropical Atmospheric Environment. Oscillation. Jonathan Byrne,
Benjamin Schenkel and Robert Hart, Consulting Meteorologist. Page 35.
University at Albany and FSU. Page 31.

11:30 AM
TM2.4 The Impact of Cloud
Microphysics on Hurricane Track.
Kristen Corbosiero and Robert Fovell.
Page 32.

Paynters Restaurant

11:50 AM – 1:00PM Lunch

Winter Session 1 – WN1 Environment Session 1– ET1


1:00PM 1:00PM
WN1.1 The 25-27 December 2010 ET1.1 Dynamic and Statistical Modeling of
Snowstorm: A case study of the Storm Surge for the New York City Region.
associated Upper-Level Jet-Front Keith Roberts, Brian A. Colle, and Hamish
System . Hannah Attard and Andrea Bowman, Stony Brook University. Page 40.
Lang, University at Albany. Page 36.

1:20 PM 1:20 PM
WN1.2 The Motion of Mesoscale ET1.2 Comparison of Two Volcanic
Snowbands in Northeast U.S. Winter Ash Height Estimation Methods and
Storms. Jaymes Kenyon, Lance Bosart, Their Affects on the HYSPLIT Volcanic
Daniel Keyser and Michael Evans, Ash Model Output . Kyle Wodzicki,
University at Albany and National SUNY-Oswego. Page 41.
Weather Service – Binghamton NY.
Page 37.


6

1:40PM 1:40PM
WN1.3 A Case Study of the 6 August ET1.3 Field-Forest Microclimates &
2012 962hPa Arctic Ocean Cyclone . Biological Diversity . Neil Laird and
Eric Adamchick, University at Albany. Augusta Williams, Hobart and William
Page 38. Smith Colleges. Page 42.

2:00PM
WN1.4 Field Observations and Modeling of the
Microphysics Within Winter Storms
Over Long Island, NY. Brian Colle,
David Stark and Sandra Yuter, Stony
Brook University, National Weather
Service – New York City and North
Carolina State University. Page 39.

Ethan Allen Room

2:20 PM – 3:00 PM Break and Poster Session

Winter Session 2 – WN2 Severe Weather Session 1 – SV1


3:00PM 3:00PM
WN2.1 A Connection Between SV1.1 Observations of Wall Cloud
Intraseasonal Tropical Variability and Formation in Supercell Thunderstorms.
Strong Northeast Snowstorms. Nicholas Timothy Nicholson, Eva Glidden and
Schiraldi, Paul Roundy and Lance Nolan Atkins, Lyndon State College.
Bosart, University at Albany. Page 43. Page 46.

3:20 PM 3:20 PM
WN2.2 Investigation of Lake-effect SV1.2 Persistence and Dissipation of
Structure Using Doppler on Wheels data Lake Erie- and Lake Ontario-Crossing
and WRF Model Simulations. Robert Mesoscale Convective Systems. Augusta
Schrom, SUNY Oswego. Page 44. Williams and Nicholas Metz, Hobart
and William Smith Colleges. Page 47.


7

3:40PM 3:40PM
WN2.3 The prediction of onset and SV1.3 The Intense Progressive
duration of freezing rain in the Saint- Derecho of 29-30 June 2012: Initiation,
Lawrence River Valley. Sophie Maintenance, and Impacts.Corey
Splawinski, Eyad Atallah, John Guastini, Lance Bosart and Ross
Gyakum and Benjamin Borgo, McGill Lazear, University at Albany. Page 48.
University and Washington University.
Page 45.

Governor’s Room

4:30 PM – 5:30 PM Panel Discussion

Daniel Dowling
WCAX TV

Joshua Fanjoy
202nd Weather Flight
Massachusetts Air National Guard

Dr. Nicholas Metz
Hobart and William Smith Colleges

Green Mountain Room

5:30 PM – 7:00 PM Lyndon State College Alumni Reception

Centre Ballroom

7:00 PM – 9:00 PM Banquet Dinner
Speaker: Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux


8

SUNDAY 10 MARCH 2012

Paynters Restaurant

8:00 AM – 9:00 AM Breakfast

Centre Ballroom

9:10 AM – 9:15 AM Opening Remarks, Raffle, and Forecast Results

9:15 AM – 9:30 AM Morning Weather Briefing
By: Eleanor Vallier-Talbot

Severe Session 2 – SV2

Centre Ballroom

9:30 AM
SV2.1. Synoptic-scale precursors and
typing of warm-season heavy
precipitation events at Montreal,
Quebec. John Gyakum, Shawn
Milrad, Eyad Atallah, Giselle
Dookhie, McGill University. Page 49.

Ethan Allen Room

10:00 AM – 10:30 AM Break and Poster Session

Centre Ballroom

10:30 AM – 11:30 AM Sunday Morning Keynote Speakers
Speakers: Kevin Skarupa

11:30 AM –11:45 PM Closing Remarks


9

Map of the Rutland/Killington Holiday Inn


10

A SPECIAL THANK YOU:

To LSC-AMS&NWA Faculty Adviser Dr. Nolan T. Atkins for his invaluable support and advice
throughout the year.

To the faculty and staff of the Atmospheric Sciences Department at Lyndon State College for
their support and respect for the club.

To LSC-AMS&NWA Historian Sarah Murphy for designing this year’s creative and original
booklet cover.

To the LSC Student Government Association for their generous contribution to help make this
conference possible year after year.

To the members of the LSC-AMS&NWA executive board and club for their incredible role in
planning and putting on this conference, and for their friendship and support through the whole
year.

To our guest speakers, Stephen Bennett, J.D., Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux and Kevin
Skarupa for their remarkable willingness to share their knowledge and experiences with everyone
and lending their prestige to the conference.

To all of the presenters at the conference, for sharing your hard work, furthering the science, and
giving this conference the great name it has earned in our community.

All of the students, professionals, and friends who attend the conference, for your eagerness to
learn and enthusiasm to meet new people, making this all very worthwhile.


11

Northeastern Storm Conference Guest List

Jebril Postle Lyndon State College President
James Sinko Lyndon State College Vice President
Matthew Davey Lyndon State College Secretary
Torrance Gaucher Lyndon State College Treasurer
Amanda Curran Lyndon State College Public Relations
Kayla Flynn Lyndon State College Community Outreach
Sarah Murphy Lyndon State College Historian
Nolan Atkins Lyndon State College AMS/NWA Advisor
Bruce Berryman Lyndon State Faculty
Janel Hanrahan Lyndon State Faculty
Jason Shafer Lyndon State Faculty
Frederic Emigh Lyndon State Faculty
Joe Bertolino President - Lyndon State College
Claudine Pierz Lyndon State College Club Representative
Ashley Merzon Lyndon State Prospective Student
Steven A Copertino Lyndon State Prospective Student
Sebastion Lury Lyndon State College Admission
Alex Avalos Lyndon State College
James Bielli Lyndon State College
Haley Bouley Lyndon State College
Kelly Butler Lyndon State College
Holly Cannon Lyndon State College
Josh Cingranelli Lyndon State College
Stephen Decatur Lyndon State College
Eva Glidden Lyndon State College
Jeremy Goldberg Lyndon State College
Joey Gollotto Lyndon State College
Robert Gould Lyndon State College
Jeremy Hall Lyndon State College
Casey Hecker Lyndon State College
Curran Hendershot Lyndon State College
Tara Hersey Lyndon State College
Emilie Hillman Lyndon State College
Andrew Janes Lyndon State College
Allison LaFleur Lyndon State College
Alexander Lee Lyndon State College
Anthony Macari III Lyndon State College
Christopher McCray Lyndon State College


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Francis McInerney Lyndon State College
Nicholas Merianos Lyndon State College
Scott Myerson Lyndon State College
Timothy Nicholson Lyndon State College
Curt Olson Lyndon State College
Aaron Perry Lyndon State College
Claudine Pierz Lyndon State College
Josh Searles Lyndon State College
Melissa Segall Lyndon State College
Alyssa Sylvia Lyndon State College
Ed Vallee Lyndon State College
Arianna Varuolo Lyndon State College
Eric Weglarz Lyndon State College
Alexander Williams Lyndon State College
William Wilson Lyndon State College
Falicia Woody Lyndon State College
Ariel Wright Lyndon State College
Colton Zercher Lyndon State College
Joshua Fanjoy 202nd Weather Flight Mass ANG
Joe Sciacca Austin Prep
Joe Sciacca Boston Herald
Kathy Sciacca Boston Herald
Stephen Bennett EarthRisk Technologies
Marko Nikic Hamilton College
Neil Laird Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Brooke Adams Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Benjamin Ayres Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Katherine Coughlin Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Caitlin Crossett Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Pamela Eck Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Raleigh Grysko Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Chad Hecht Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Macy Howarth Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Nick Marenakos Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Nicholas Metz Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Augusta Williams Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Steven Copertino KPMG LLP
John Gyakum McGill University
Sophie Splawinski McGill University
Tyra Brown Millersville AMS
Ian Eppig Millersville AMS


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James Fowler Millersville AMS
Felicia Guarriello Millersville AMS
Andrew Henry Millersville AMS
Evan Keeler Millersville AMS
Joseph Markiewicz Millersville AMS
Evan Ntonados Millersville AMS
Melanie Ragon Millersville AMS
Michelle Serino Millersville AMS
Abigail Stimach Millersville AMS
Andrew Yarosh Millersville AMS
Eric Kelsey Mt. Washington Observatory
Evan Heller NWS-Albany, NY
Kyle Avery New England Storm Chasers
Eleanor Vallier-Talbot NWA Education Cmte. Co-Chair
Eric Drewitz Oswego State University
Stephen Piechowski Oswego State University
Lourdes Aviles Plymouth State University
Eric Brill Plymouth State University
Matthew Cann Plymouth State University
Stephanie Capraro Plymouth State University
Kevin Cronin Plymouth State University
Ryan Curtin Plymouth State University
Evan Delhay Plymouth State University
Eddie Dixon Plymouth State University
Jacob Fedors Plymouth State University
Megan Godfrey Plymouth State University
Gabrielle Guerra Plymouth State University
Kristen Guillemette Plymouth State University
Liana Haddad Plymouth State University
Alyssa Hammond Plymouth State University
Christopher Harle Plymouth State University
David Heeps Plymouth State University
William Henneberg Plymouth State University
Brendon Hoch Plymouth State University
Eric Hoffman Plymouth State University
Heather Janssen Plymouth State University
Stewart Kaczynski Plymouth State University
Jason Kaiser Plymouth State University
Emily Kane Plymouth State University
Katie Laro Plymouth State University
Kevin Lupo Plymouth State University


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Kyle Martin Plymouth State University
TJ Palmer Plymouth State University
Erin Rinehart Plymouth State University
Zachary Ruggiero Plymouth State University
Rachel Sass Plymouth State University
Conrad Schmidt Plymouth State University
Tenley Sodeur Plymouth State University
Vanesa Urango Plymouth State University
Chengpeng Wang Plymouth State University
Brian Wehner Plymouth State University
Elizabeth Somers Plymouth State University
Kevin Kelly Precision Weather
Jonathan Byrne Rising Sun Consulting
James Danco Rutgers University
Anthony Adams Rutgers University
Shunondo Basu Rutgers University
Paul Beam Rutgers University
Shawnie Caslin Rutgers University
Michael Chen Rutgers University
David Grace Rutgers University
Sherilyn Graham Rutgers University
Gina Kelshaw Rutgers University
Michael Lee Rutgers University
Daniel Manzo Rutgers University
Joe Martucci Rutgers University
Katie McCracken Rutgers University
Stephen Osinski Rutgers University
Jennifer Pagliei Rutgers University
Rebecca Evrard Rutgers University
Andrew Fisher Rutgers University
Kelsey Johnson Rutgers University
Adam Rainear Rutgers University
James Fullmer S. Connecticut State University
Jason Keefer Savona, NY
Zack Manyak
Brian Camarda Stony Brook University
Brian Colle Stony Brook University
Aaron Doucett Stony Brook University
Michael Erickson Stony Brook University
Sara Ganetis Stony Brook University
Keith Roberts Stony Brook University


15

Matthew Sienkiewicz Stony Brook University
Anthony Ayala Stony Brook University
Michael Colbert Stony Brook University
Kevin Montalvo Stony Brook University
Jessica Quickle Stony Brook University
Peter Ramirez Stony Brook University
Andrew Simakov Stony Brook University
William Verity Stony Brook University
Breanna Zavadoff Stony Brook University
Daniel Caputi Stony Brook University
Greg Diamond SUNY Albany
Melissa Godek SUNY Oneonta
Amanda Baum SUNY Oneonta
Anthony Baum SUNY Oneonta
Danielle Browarski SUNY Oneonta
Jordan Contract SUNY Oneonta
Alyssa Dubbs SUNY Oneonta
Sarah Galligan SUNY Oneonta
Thomas King SUNY Oneonta
Daniel Linek SUNY Oneonta
David Loveless SUNY Oneonta
Matthew Makower-Brown SUNY Oneonta
Andrew Messina SUNY Oneonta
Katelyn Barber SUNY Oswego
Mark Becker SUNY Oswego
Julie Budd SUNY Oswego
Mary Butwin SUNY Oswego
Andrew Calvi SUNY Oswego
Patrick Cavlin SUNY Oswego
Ryan Farrell SUNY Oswego
Kayla Fenimore SUNY Oswego
Tara Hecke SUNY Oswego
Samuel Hewitt SUNY Oswego
Ryan Kiely SUNY Oswego
Victoria Love SUNY Oswego
Daniela Pirraglia SUNY Oswego
Ashley Poreda SUNY Oswego
Ariel Powers SUNY Oswego
Jordan Rabinowitz SUNY Oswego
Richard Russell SUNY Oswego
Robert Schrom SUNY Oswego


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Peter Speck SUNY Oswego
Alfred Stamm SUNY Oswego
Scott Steiger SUNY Oswego
Madison Van Kuren SUNY Oswego
Michael Vuotto SUNY Oswego
Brian West SUNY Oswego
Kyle Wodzicki SUNY Oswego
Courtney Zupo SUNY Oswego
Jake Mulholland SUNY Oswego
Michael Stahlman SUNY Oswego
Jerome Blechman SUNY Oneonta
Paul Grabkowski SUNY Albany
Samantha Basile SUNY Albany
Brittany Bennett SUNY Albany
Kurt Hansen SUNY Albany
Rachel O'Donnell SUNY Albany
Brian Tang SUNY Albany
Eric Adamchick SUNY Albany
Hannah Attard SUNY Albany
Alicia Bentley SUNY Albany
Lance Bosart SUNY Albany
Kristen Corbosiero SUNY Albany
Larry Gloeckler SUNY Albany
Corey Guastini SUNY Albany
Andrea Lang SUNY Albany
Ross Lazear SUNY Albany
Philippe Papin SUNY Albany
Benjamin Schenkel SUNY Albany
Nick Schiraldi SUNY Albany
Jaymes Kenyon SUNY Albany
Adrian Mitchell SUNY Albany
Doug MacPherson USMA, West Point
Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux UVM / Vermont Climatologist
Daniel Dowling WCAX-TV
Ben Sisskind Weather Routing Inc.
John Hickey WENT-TV
BILL KARDAS WKTV
Adam Musyt WKTV-TV, Utica, NY
Kevin Skarupa WMUR
Amy Grabkowski


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Vendors
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meteorologist, Low Pressure Inc.com is a must see for weather enthusiasts of any degree.
Whether you are shopping for weather related tee-shirts, gadgets, or educational tools,
Low Pressure Inc.com is your one stop weather shop on the web. If you love weather,
then you will love Low Pressure Inc.com. sited: http://lowpressureinc.com/


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Key Note Speakers

Friday Night Ice Breaker
Stephen Bennett, J.D.

Stephen (Steve) Bennett, J.D. is a founding partner and Chief Science and Products
Officer for EarthRisk Technologies. Steve's leadership role includes directing EarthRisk's product
pipeline as well as providing strategic guidance for the company’s research portfolio. He also
manages the EarthRisk development team and is the company liaison with university researchers
around the world. EarthRisk provides software as a solution for analysts who link weather to
business decisions. EarthRisk's research goes into the proverbial “black hole” for predicting
weather more than one week in advance. We pioneer "big data" for weather analysis by
leveraging the power of cloud computing to perform millions of statistical calculations each day.
EarthRisk's products link past weather events to future forecast outcomes in real time. We
provide data-driven probabilistic forecasts for extreme temperature events up to 40-days ahead.
Prior to founding EarthRisk, Steve spent three years at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at
UC San Diego where he forged relationships linking earth systems research to energy, insurance,
and financial firms. Steve has been a meteorologist since 1995, forecasting the weather and
applying weather research for financial investing and media applications. He served six years at
Citadel Investment Group, a hedge fund in Chicago, where he was part of the team that built and
launched Citadel's Global Energy Trading business. Steve also spent nearly two years at the
Enron Corporation in the research division supporting natural gas trading. The first half of his
career spanned a variety of consulting companies and media outlets including The Weather
Channel, WeatherData Inc. and Weather Services Corporation. Steve completed his
undergraduate meteorology degree in 1995 from the University of South Alabama and graduated
Magna Cum Laude from the John Marshall Law School in 2008. He is currently the chairman of
the American Meteorological Society's Energy Committee on the AMS Board for Enterprise and
Economic Development and Commission for the Weather and Climate Enterprise.

Website: www.earthrisktech.com

Email: stephen.bennett@earthrisktech.com


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Saturday Night Banquet Speaker
Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux

An applied climatologist by training, Dr. Dupigny-Giroux's research interests intersect a
number of interdisciplinary fields including hydroclimatic natural hazards and climate literacy as
well as the use of remote sensing and GIS (Geographic Information Systems) in the fields of
spatial climate and land-surface processes. In terms of hazards, she has examined the spectre of
drought in both semiarid environments in northeast Brazil, as well as humid continental ones like
northeastern North America. Earlier work in the Journal of the American Water Resources
Association outlines the climatic underpinnings of drought in Vermont and shall be used as part
of a national effort to develop a North American-wide definition of drought. Her recently
published work includes guest editing a special issue of the journal Physical Geography, devoted
to the theme of climate literacy. Other publications (e.g. Remote Sensing of Environment) delve
into the use of multiangular imaging to examine drought stress in New England wetlands. Finally,
Dr. Dupigny-Giroux is the lead editor of Historical climate variability and impacts in North
America, the first monograph of its kind to deal with the use of documentary and other ancillary
records in the analysis of climate variability and change. Dr. Dupigny-Giroux is also the State
Climatologist for Vermont, a role which has allowed her to facilitate dialogue among
meteorology, climatology, emergency management, agriculture, forestry and GIS users across the
state. She continues to work closely with colleagues at these and other state agencies to better
quantify the causal dynamic and impacts of floods, droughts and severe weather on Vermont’s
physical landscape. Dr. Dupigny-Giroux teaches introductory courses in physical geography and
geotechniques. Her intermediate and advanced level courses include topics on Climatology,
Remote Sensing, Advanced GIS Applications, and Satellite Climatology and Land-Surfaces
Processes. She holds a B.S. in Physical Geography and Development Studies from the University
of Toronto (1989), an M.S.(1992) in Climatology and Hydrology and a Ph.D. (1996) in
Climatology and Geographic Information Systems from McGill University.

Website: www.uvm.edu/~vtstclim/

Email: Lesley-Ann.Dupigny-Giroux@uvm.edu


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Sunday Morning Speaker
Kevin Skarupa

Meteorologist, Kevin Skarupa, can be seen weekdays from 5 to 7 a.m. on News 9
Daybreak with Erin Fehlau and Sean McDonald, then on News 9 at Noon. Kevin earned a
meteorology degree from Lyndon State College in Vermont and currently holds both the AMS
Television Seal of Approval and the Certified Broadcast Meteorologist seal. Kevin has also
worked for KIMT in Mason City, Iowa; WPBF in West Palm Beach, Fla.; and WKRN in
Nashville. If he looks familiar, it’s because Kevin worked at WMUR back in 1998 doing
weekend weather under the name "Kevin Joseph." His favorite part of the job is visiting dozens
of schools a year and talking with students about weather. The toughest part is the alarm clock,
which goes off around 1 a.m. Kevin enjoys playing golf, running and watching sports. He and his
wife Melissa (a Merrimack native) have a son, Levi, and miniature beagle, Shilo.

Website: www.wmur.com/weather

Twitter: www.twitter.com/WMUR

Facebook: www.facebook.com/nhweather


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Oral Presentation Abstract
9 March 2013

8:30 AM – 8:50 AM

On the Actions and Inaction of the U.S. Weather Bureau
During the Great New England Hurricane of 1938

Dr. Lourdes Aviles
Plymouth State University
Plymouth, NH 03264

Much has been written about the Great New England Hurricane of 1938, which
left behind widespread devastation throughout the region, killing hundreds, modifying the
coastline and decimating the forest. Once the storm was past Cape Hatteras, as was
procedure since 1935, responsibility for the storm's tracking, forecasting and warning was
handed off to the Washington DC Weather Bureau Office, who issued "northeast storm
warnings", but no "hurricane warnings." The storm was expected by all to "recurve
northeast" and dissipate over the North Atlantic; but not only did it not continue
recurving as expected, it moved much faster than previously known possible and it also
maintained its intensity well into interior New England. As one might expect,
immediately following the storm and throughout the years, the Weather Bureau was and
continued being criticized for not issuing adequate warnings.

The author will discuss the story of Charles H. Pierce, the junior forecaster
attributed with having forecasted the hurricane's track correctly, Charles L. Mitchell, the
forecaster in charge who allegedly overruled the need for hurricane warnings (while
having himself performed a detailed study of hurricane tracks just the previous decade
and also being recognized by his contemporaries as one of the best forecasters in the
nation), the criticism and the Bureau's response to the criticism. Finally, and more
importantly, the history behind the observational and analysis tools available to
forecasters at that time and how they might have made a difference in the Hurricane's
forecast and warnings will also be examined.

This historical meteorology research study is part of a larger project by the author, a
book on the science and history surrounding The Great New England Hurricane of 1938,
which will be published later this year by the American Meteorological Society in
parallel with the 75th anniversary of the storm.


22

9 March 2013

8:50 AM – 9:10 AM

Upper-Level Precursors Associated with Subtropical Cyclone Formation
in the North Atlantic Basin

Alicia M. Bentley, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY 12222

Oceanic cyclones exhibiting properties of both tropical and extratropical systems
have been categorized as subtropical cyclones (STCs) since the early 1950s. The
opportunity to investigate the roles of baroclinic and diabatic processes during the
evolution of STCs from a PV perspective motivates this study. The development of
STCs, sometimes called hybrid cyclones in the current literature, requires the existence of
a baroclinically unstable environment, quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent, and the
production of lower-to-midtropospheric potential vorticity (PV) by diabatic heating.
Previous studies have established that STC formation is associated with weak low-level
baroclinicity, significant lower-to-midtropospheric PV, and relatively cold upper-
tropospheric air accompanying intrusions of midlatitude PV streamers into the subtropics.
The hybrid nature of STCs makes them potential candidates to become tropical cyclones
(TCs) via the tropical transition (TT) process. We will investigate the roles of baroclinic
and diabatic processes during TT by calculating three PV metrics from the NCEP
Climate Forecast System Reanalysis 0.5° gridded dataset. The three PV metrics quantify
the relative contributions of: 1) lower-tropospheric baroclinic processes, 2)
midtropospheric condensation heating, and 3) upper-tropospheric dynamical processes
during the evolution of individual cyclones. Quantification of these three contributions
reveals the changing PV structure of an individual cyclone, suggests fluctuations in the
dominant energy source of the cyclone, and aids in distinguishing between various
cyclone types. Synoptic-scale anticyclonic wave breaking (AWB) events in the
midlatitudes inject relatively cold upper-tropospheric air into the subtropics in association
with PV streamers. Such intrusions of relatively cold upper-tropospheric air can help to
destabilize the subtropical troposphere and facilitate the development of the deep
convection that can serve as a catalyst for STC formation. A synoptic overview of STC
Sean (2011) will be presented as an illustrative case of STC formation. Sean formed
beneath the fractured equatorward end of an elongated PV streamer on the equatorward
side of a fold-over ridge produced by an antecedent AWB event. An evaluation of the
relative contributions of lower-tropospheric baroclinic processes, midtropospheric
condensation heating, and upper-tropospheric dynamical processes during the evolution
of STC Sean (2011) reveals the reduction of upper-tropospheric PV and enhancement of
midtropospheric PV during TT, as well as an enhancement in lower-tropospheric
baroclinicity as the cyclone becomes extratropical.


23

9 March 2013

9:10 AM – 9:30 AM

Five Linked September (2011) Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones: Noru,
Talas, Lee, Nate, and Katia
Lance F. Bosart and Kyle S. Griffin1
The University at Albany
1
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
University of Wisconsin-Madison

The period from 1-10 September 2011 featured five tropical cyclones (TCs), two
over the western Pacific (Noru and Talas) and three over the Gulf of Mexico and western
Atlantic (Lee, Nate, and Katia), that could be linked to one another through mutual
interactions and downstream development with subsequent high-impact weather events
over eastern North America. Slow-moving, large TC Talas produced widespread heavy
rainfall over Japan. Anticyclonic wave breaking (AWB) northeast of TC Talas enabled a
potential vorticity (PV) streamer to form to the south over the subtropical western Pacific.
TC Noru formed southeast of TC Talas by the tropical transition process along this PV
streamer. A second AWB event occurred over the northwestern Pacific as TC Noru
engaged in a binary interaction with TC Talas and both storms subsequently underwent
extratropical transition along the northeastern coast of Asia. The second AWB
culminated in the formation of a deep downstream trough over the Gulf of Alaska.
Farther downstream, TC Lee formed over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, drifted
northeastward, and made landfall in eastern Louisiana on 5 September at which time it
was experiencing ET ahead of a meridionally elongated trough over the central U.S. This
trough became meridionally elongated in response to the aforementioned downstream
trough development over the Gulf of Alaska and subsequent ridge amplification over
western North America. TC Nate formed over the Bay of Campeche at the southern end
of a wind shift line that marked a remnant cold front that stretched southward from TC
Lee and was associated with the meridionally elongated trough. TC Nate produced very
heavy rains over eastern and southeastern Mexico and subsequently made landfall over
eastern Mexico. The southern part of the trough west of TC Lee fractured from the main
PV reservoir while the northern part continued eastward toward New England. The
remnants of TC Lee moved northeastward along a low-level frontal boundary ahead of
the fractured trough and produced very heavy rainfall. Diabatic outflow-induced upper-
level ridging over the western Atlantic ahead of TC Lee helped steer TC Katia, an
Atlantic storm that was active at the time that TC Lee made landfall in Louisiana, toward
extreme southeastern New England. Deep tropical moisture ahead of TC Katia flowed
northward and north-northwestward around the western side of the western Atlantic
ridge. This moisture, in conjunction with moisture flowing north-northeastward from the
remnants of TC Lee, contributed to heavy rains over parts of New England and Atlantic
Canada.


24

9 March 2013

9:30 AM – 9:50 AM

The extratropical transition of TC Dale (1996) and its impact on the early 1996-97
wintertime stratospheric circulation

Andrea Lang, Daniel Keyser and Lance Bosart
University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY

It has become increasingly accepted that recurving tropical cyclones (TCs) can
have substantial impacts on the hemispheric general circulation as well as downstream
forecast uncertainty. A recurving TC that transitions into an extratropical cyclone can
excite a Rossby wave train that is associated with meridional fluxes of heat and
momentum. In some cases, meridional fluxes of heat and momentum extend well into
the stratosphere, where such fluxes are associated with an upward EP flux from the
troposphere into the stratosphere. An environment characterized by EP flux convergence
experiences an increase in wave activity and consequently a decrease in the westerly
momentum of mean zonal wind. When an extratropical transitioning TC occurs during
the spin-up of the northern hemisphere wintertime circulation, the impact of the EP flux
convergence in the stratosphere can be to slow the establishment of the wintertime
stratospheric polar vortex and the associated stratospheric polar night jet. (Typical
recovery times in the stratosphere are on radiative timescales of 30-60 days.)

This talk will explore the hypothesis that the processes associated with the
recurvature of TC Dale (1996) were responsible for a warming of the Arctic polar cap
and the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. After TC Dale recurved and became
extratropical, there was a surge in EP flux from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The
EP flux convergence (associated with a decrease in westerly momentum) was located
along the flank of the stratospheric polar vortex and was associated with stratospheric
ridge amplification over Alaska. The ridge amplification occurred at a point in the
season when the stratospheric polar night jet was climatologically spinning up for the
winter; however, the flux of wave activity from the troposphere to the stratosphere from
recurving TC Dale resulted in a weakened stratospheric polar vortex and a substantial
departure from climatology. The potential implications of this event on the Arctic
Oscillation (AO) as well as subseasonal forecasting will be highlighted.


25

9 March 2013

8:30 AM – 8:50 AM

At Eighty Years Old, Beginning a New Era of Research and Engaged Scholarship at
Mount Washington Observatory
Eric P. Kelsey
Plymouth State College
Mount Washington Observatory

Since 1932, Mount Washington Observatory’s mission has been to advance our
understanding of the natural systems that create the Earth’s weather and climate, by
maintaining the mountaintop weather station, conducting research and educational
programs and interpreting the heritage of the Mount Washington region. For eighty
years, MWO observers, scientists, and staff have worked diligently to advance this
mission and have collaborated with external scientists to conduct original research across
the Appalachian Mountains of New England. In 2012, MWO undertook a major
advancement toward its mission by hiring its first full-time Director of Research, a
position that is joint with Plymouth State University as a professor in atmospheric
science. This presentation, given by the new Director of Research, will begin by
highlighting the first eighty years of research at Mount Washington Observatory – from
measuring “the” big wind in April 1934 (231 mph) to measuring cosmic rays, and
understanding the physics of rime ice accretion in mountainous terrain. The second half
of the presentation will feature current research projects (e.g., first climatological study of
the summit’s wind record; rime icing impacts on treeline elevation in the Presidential
Mountains) and future research and operational goals for this legendary institution.


26

9 March 2013

8:50 AM – 9:10 AM

Diurnal Wind Event Climatology in New Hampshire

Stephen Quinn and Eric G. Hoffman
Department of Atmospheric Science and Chemistry
Plymouth State University
Plymouth, NH

A previous study of power outages in New Hampshire showed that strong wind
events that led to major outages typically began during the overnight hours between 04 –
10 UTC (11 pm – 5 am EST). These winds events usually lasted for 36 or more hours.
The diurnal climatology of winds has not been well documented in the literature with
very little data published from New England. Therefore this study attempts to document
the diurnal wind climatology in New Hampshire. Five years (2007 – 2011) of hourly
METAR data from four stations (Keene, Portsmouth, Concord, and Berlin) were used. In
order to examine wind events, a definition of a high wind event was developed by
examining the overall wind speed frequency at each station. In this study a high wind
event was any event in which the wind speed or gust exceeded the 90th percentile value
(10 knots and 15 knots respectively) for more than three consecutive observations (e.g.
two hours). The results of the strong wind event climatology show that most high wind
events begin in the afternoon (17 – 21 UTC, 12 pm – 4 pm EST), are relatively short
lived (< 6 hours), and occur throughout the year with a maximum in the summer months.
Long duration wind events (typically > 24 hours) occur during the cold season and begin
anytime during the day with nearly 40 – 50 % of them beginning between 00 - 12 UTC (7
pm – 7 am EST).


27

9 March 2013

9:10 AM – 9:30 AM

Climatology and Evolution of Convective Storms Approaching the Southern Coast of the
Northeast U.S.

Kelly Lombardo, Michael Erickson, and Brian A. Colle
School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY

Deep convection is strongly modified over the Northeast U.S. by the terrain, coastal, and
urban areas. For the past few years we have been investigating the climatology of warm season
convection using NOWrad radar data and cloud-to-ground lightning data (Murray and Colle
2011), distribution of different convective storm types (isolated cell, quasi-linear lines, and non-
linear systems) and their relationship to severe weather (Lombardo and Colle 2010; 2011), the
interaction of quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) with land-ocean boundaries (Lombardo
and Colle 2012), and the recent New York City (NYC) tornadoes (Colle et al. 2012). This talk
will summarize some of the key findings from these studies, with an emphasis on why some
systems quickly decay when encountering the coast while others maintain their intensity.

Composite analyses show that convective lines that decay near the Atlantic coast or
slowly decay over the coastal waters are associated with 900–800-hPa frontogenesis, with
greater ambient 0–3-km vertical wind shear for the slowly decaying lines. Systems that maintain
their intensity over the coastal ocean are associated with 900-hPa warm air advection and
relatively weak low-level frontogenetical forcing. There is also a weaker mean surface cold pool
for the sustaining systems than the decaying QLCSs, which may favor a more long-lived system
if the horizontal vorticity from this cold pool is more balanced by low-level vertical shear.
Neither sea surface temperature nor ambient instability was a clear delimiter between the three
evolutions. Shortly before the early morning of the NYC tornadoes on 8 August 2007, a
mesoscale convective system intensified in the lee of the Appalachians in a region of low-level
frontogenesis and moderate MUCAPE (~1500 J kg−1). Warm advection at low levels and
evaporative cooling within an elevated mixed layer (EML) ahead of the mesoscale convective
system (MCS) helped steepen the low-level lapse rates.


28

9 March 2013

9:30 AM – 9:50 AM

The Effects of Extreme Precipitation Events on Climatology
.
Pamela Eck and Nicholas Metz
Department of Geoscience, Hobart and William Smith Colleges

Extreme weather events can drastically affect the local climate. For example, in
September 2010, Albany, New York received 0.76 inches of rain over the first 29 days of
the month. On 30 September, 2.68 inches of rain fell in association with a quasi-
stationary boundary, resulting in a 0.13-inch precipitation surplus for the month. On
paper, the total precipitation recorded for this month appears to be nearly normal.
However, this “normal” month resulted from a singular extreme event. Three years
earlier during May 2007 in Albany, NY, relatively small amounts of precipitation fell on
8 separate days, resulting in a cumulative monthly rainfall total of 3.51 inches, near the
mean of 3.67 inches. Despite the extreme variation in the two monthly precipitation
distributions, both of these months appear on paper to be “normal” because the
cumulative monthly precipitation for both are comparable to the mean and monthly
precipitation totals do not take into account the distribution of precipitation throughout
the entire month.
This presentation will examine precipitation data records from a number of sites
across the United States in an attempt to understand whether “normal” monthly
cumulative precipitation is made up of several days of little precipitation, or a few days of
extreme precipitation. A 30-year climatology of daily precipitation totals spanning 1981-
2010 has been gathered for ten different cities across the United States. Each city was
selected based on climate, geographic location, topography, and proximity to water
bodies. Only the months of April through September were studied to limit issues
associated with measuring liquid equivalent from snowfall. Preliminary results indicate
that months with smaller rainfall totals generally featured fewer precipitation events per
month and larger percentages of the total monthly rainfall accumulating during the largest
single event. Conversely, months with larger rainfall totals generally featured more
precipitation events each month and smaller percentages of the total monthly rainfall
accumulating during the largest single event. One of the main controlling factors for
extreme precipitation events was found to be the distribution of convection.


29

9 March 2013

10:30 AM – 10:50 AM

The Evolution of the Large-scale Extratropical Flow Pattern Associated with West
Pacific Tropical Convection Prior to the Genesis of Superstorm Sandy

Lawrence C. Gloeckler
SUNY Albany, Albany, NY

Past research has associated organized tropical convective modes with the
modulation of the extratropical circulation pattern and the development of high-impact
weather events (e.g., tropical cyclones) downstream. Rossby wave trains are excited
through the amplification of mid-latitude flow in association with upper-tropospheric
divergent outflow linked to organized tropical convection. As these wave trains amplify,
they are often observed to break, which can enhance subtropical ridging and
simultaneously excite low-level circulations in the tropics by driving high potential
vorticity (PV) air equatorward. Thus, organized tropical convection over the West Pacific
can influence the evolution of large-scale flow patterns favorable for the genesis of
tropical cyclones downstream.
A preliminary analysis suggests linkage between organized tropical convection
over the Maritime Continent and West Pacific, and the evolution of the downstream flow
prior to the development of Superstorm Sandy. Associations between organized tropical
convection, the amplification of the subtropical jet, and persistent wave breaking prior to
the genesis of Sandy are examined in this analysis.


30

9 March 2013

10:50 AM – 11:10 AM

The Development and Tropical Transition of an Unnamed High Latitude
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone

Nicholas D. Metz1 and Alicia M. Bentley2
1
Department of Geoscience
Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY 14456
2
Department and Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany, Albany, NY 12222

With the advent of satellite data, observations have shown that tropical cyclones
(TCs) can form in “non-traditional” locations outside of tropical latitudes. Recently,
axisymmetric, warm core cyclones have been identified in a variety of these non-
traditional locations including the South Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. These
TCs often develop as a result of the tropical transition (TT) process where diabatic
heating reduces the vertical wind shear over the cyclone, facilitating tropical
cyclogenesis.

In October 2006 an unnamed TC developed at ~40°N over the eastern North
Pacific via the TT process. A baroclinic cyclone, which formed in association with a
thinning midlatitude trough in the Gulf of Alaska, served as the precursor disturbance that
would ultimately undergo TT. Convection associated with a bent-back frontal structure
upstream of the cyclone led to diabatically induced potential vorticity ridging that
reduced the vertical wind shear over the system. The cyclone subsequently occluded,
became removed from the upper-level jet stream, and developed a warm core.
Amazingly, the TT of this unnamed TC occurred over sea surface temperatures that were
only ~16°C. Approximately four days after formation, the TC moved onshore along the
western United States, impacting northern Washington with high winds and precipitation.

This presentation will utilize observations and reanalysis data as part of a
multiscale investigation of the variety of ingredients and processes that combined to
allow the formation of a TC in such a non-traditional location. Additionally WRF-
simulated analyses will be employed to investigate mesoscale processes at work within
the TC that were not captured by observations. An additional goal of the simulations will
be to explore TC structural differences that arise from changing the complexity of the
microphysical schemes within the WRF model.


31

9 March 2013

11:10 AM – 11:30 AM

On the Impacts of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones on the Moisture
Content of Their Large Scale Tropical Atmospheric Environment

Benjamin A. Schenkel
University at Albany, SUNY
Robert E. Hart
The Florida State University

An important focus of ongoing research in tropical meteorology is why there are,
on average, 60 tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Northern Hemisphere per year and how this
number may be altered due to climate change. Moreover, questions remain regarding
why TCs within the Eastern North Pacific, North Atlantic (NATL), and Western North
Pacific (WPAC) exhibit a similar horizontal spacing between 1500 km to 1800 km during
multiple TC events despite the differences in the large-scale atmospheric environment
among basins and the size of each basin. Reconciling these fundamental questions
regarding TC activity is potentially at least partially rooted in determining the relevance
of TCs within their tropical atmospheric environment. While prior work has suggested
that TCs may potentially be responsible for cooling and drying their large-scale
atmospheric environment, the role of TCs within the tropics remains unresolved.
Building upon the foundation provided by prior work, the following study will
objectively quantify and analyze the response of the moisture content of the large-scale
atmospheric environment to TC passage. The crux of this study hinges upon the use of
storm-relative composites of reanalysis data from the NCEP Climate Forecast System
Reanalysis for TCs in the Western North Pacific (WPAC). Vertically integrated moisture
budgets are then used to attribute anomalies to specific physical processes.

The impacts of WPAC TCs upon the moisture content of their large-scale
environment are primarily associated with an anomalous drying of the lower and middle
tropospheric atmospheric environment to the west and southwest of the TC. The drying
appears to be caused by upper level convergence resulting from the interaction of the TC
outflow with its environment. On the western side of the TC, both the upper level flow
from the anticyclone of the Asian monsoon and the increasing inertial stability with
latitude due to the meridional gradient of planetary vorticity limit the ventilation to the
west of the TC yielding upper level convergence. The area of anomalous drying to the
southwest is associated with the convergent upper level flow from the right exit region of
the anticyclonically curved equatorward outflow jet of the TC. These results may suggest
that WPAC TCs play a substantial climatological role in drying their large scale tropical
atmospheric environment during the late summer and early fall given the presence of, on
average, at least one TC during the peak of TC season.


32

9 March 2013

11:30 AM – 11:50 AM

The Impact of Cloud Microphysics on Hurricane Track

Kristen L. Corbosiero1 and Robert G. Fovell2
1
University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY
2
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA

In the absence of strong steering flow, the propagation of tropical cyclones is
largely due to the establishment of ‘‘beta gyres’’ due to the advection of planetary
vorticity by the storm’s circulation. Previous research has demonstrated that the winds
well beyond the storm core influence storm motion by helping to determine the
orientation and intensity of the beta gyres. Assumptions in the cloud microphysical
parameterizations in numerical models, especially those involving average particle fall
speeds, can strongly influence tropical cyclone outer wind structure, and thus affect the
speed and direction of storm motion.
A real-ideal hybrid of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has
been used to simulate hurricanes in an initially calm environment with uniform sea
surface temperature (SST), but with real data model characteristics such as radiation,
boundary layer physics and Earth curvature. Analysis of these simulations reveals how,
and why, cloud microphysical assumptions can influence storm motion. Specifically,
cloud microphysics modulates the radial distribution of column-average virtual
temperature, which largely determines the radial surface pressure gradient and therefore
the winds that tend to be in gradient balance. Microphysical schemes can differ markedly
with respect to average fall speed, depending on the complexity of the scheme and how
interactions among condensation types are handled. Average fall speed controls the
outward movement of particles produced in the eyewall into the anvil, where they can
influence the environment through cloud-radiative interactions and phase changes.


33

9 March 2013

10:30 AM – 10:50 AM

A Climatology of Central American Gyres

Philippe P. Papin, Kyle S. Griffin, Lance F. Bosart, and Ryan D. Torn
University at Albany/SUNY
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222

Monsoon gyres, commonly found over the western Pacific Ocean, are
characterized by broad low-level cyclonic circulations that occur at a variety of spatial
scales ranging from 1500-3000 km. Low-level cyclonic gyre circulations, while less
frequent and occupying a smaller scale, are also observed over Central America during
the tropical cyclone (TC) season. A noteworthy gyre observed during the 2010 PREDICT
field project served as a “collector” of TC Matthew and a source for TC Nicole. During
October 2011, devastating flooding occurred in Guatemala and El Salvador when TD 12-
E, embedded in a gyre circulation, made landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America.
These gyre occurrences, their apparent links to TC activity, and their association with
high-impact weather motivates this presentation.

A preliminary analysis of Central American gyres suggests that their spatial scales vary
between 1000-2000 km. These gyres also tend to be co-located with reservoirs of deep
moisture that are characterized by high precipitable water values (>50 mm) and
embedded deep convection on their southern and eastern sides. Catastrophic flooding can
occur when gyre cyclonic circulations interact with the topography of Central America.

A Central American gyre climatology including gyre frequency over the TC season will
be presented. This climatology is then used to craft a gyre composite using previous gyre
cases from 1980-2010. Particular attention will be given to the common synoptic and
sub-synoptic scale features that precede and take place during gyre formation. This
includes the role that intraseasonal and interannual circulations such as the Madden-
Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) might play in gyre
development. TC genesis events within gyre circulations will also be highlighted and
examined further. Finally, the results of a September 2010 case study will be used to
illustrate the impact Central American topography has on the development of gyre
circulations. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be employed to
understand the role of topography in the gyre’s formation and evolution by running
several simulations comparing a control run to simulations with adjusted terrain.


34

9 March 2013

10:50 AM – 11:10 AM

Validation of regional precipitation indices dynamically downscaled from ERA-
Interim reanalysis data by a mesoscale atmospheric model

J.L. Hanrahan, C.C. Kuo, T.Y. Gan

Extreme precipitation events in central Alberta have overwhelmed hydraulic
structures several times in recent years, and it is expected that rainfall intensity in this
region will continue to increase over the next several decades. Accurate rainfall
projections, which are communicated in the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF)
curves, are thus needed to design sufficient municipal structures. Such data may be
obtained through the use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), and one in particular, the
fifth-generation NCAR/Penn State mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5), is investigated
here. MM5 is used to dynamically downscale ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, to
evaluate its ability to accurately simulate rainfall characteristics in central Alberta, over
two consecutive summers representing contrasting precipitation regimes. Precipitation
simulated at the local scale is verified with Edmonton’s local rain gauge network, while
larger-scale precipitation is compared with the High Resolution Precipitation Product
(HRPP), CMORPH. This particular HRPP was compared with rain gauge data and radar
images which revealed that it can be reliably used to validate MM5 output in this region.
MM5 output is also compared to data from a local sounding station and other reanalysis
variables. Precipitation data generated by MM5 revealed that this RCM can indeed
distinguish between wet (2010) and dry (2009) years, but that simulated rainfall totals are
too high during both precipitation regimes. This bias may be attributed to enhanced
moisture advection, and should be taken into consideration when using MM5 to make
projections regarding possible changes to future precipitation conditions in central
Alberta.


35

9 March 2013

11:10 AM – 11:30 AM

The Role of the North Altantic Thermohaline Circulation As A Possible Trigger
For The Younger Dryas Oscillation

Jonathan Ariel Forest Byrne
Consulting Meteorologist
212 Commonwealth Ave, Suite 5
Boston, MA 02116
Byrnejonathan12@gmail.com

The Younger Dryas Oscillation occurred at approximately 12.8 kyr B.P. ( Before
Present) and was characterized by an abrupt departure of the mean longitudinal
temperature trend during this time. As the amelioration of Wisconsin Ice Epoch was well
underway, this anomaly manifested initially as a rapid decrease in surface temperature of
5 c to 10c over a period of mere decades, followed by warming of equal magnitude. A
number of hypotheses have been propounded to explain this abrupt climate change event
including coupling with shifts in atmospheric composition (greenhouse gases), a bolloid
impact and ejection of atmospheric aerosols, to a disruption in the thermohaline
circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic Basin. In the case of the latter hypothesis, it has
been suggested that the release of fresh water into the Atlantic Basin from the ablation of
the Laurentide ice sheet resulted in a break down of the North Atlantic conveyor belt /
thermohaline circulation hence heat distribution. The net impact was an accelerated
cooling via a positive feedback loop composed of increased snowfall commensurate with
decreased surface albedo leading to this interstadial cooling. This paper will investigate
the North Atlantic THC and its contributions as a trigger for the Younger Dryas event.


36

9 March 2013

1:00 PM – 1:20 PM

The 25-27 December 2010 Snowstorm:
A case study of the associated Upper-Level Jet-Front System

Hannah E. Attard and Andrea A. Lang
University at Albany, SUNY

Upper-level jet-front (ULJF) systems are commonly associated with the
development of upper-tropospheric precursors to surface cyclogensis. The analysis
presented here will highlight the dynamics of several ULJF systems during and prior to
the cyclogenesis event associated with the 25-27 December 2010 East Coast snowstorm.
Particular attention will be paid to the role of individual substructures of ULJF systems,
namely the upper-tropospheric and the lower-stratospheric fronts, in shaping the upper-
level environment prior to the development of this impactful Holiday Season snowstorm.

The 25-27 December 2010 cyclone had significant impacts on much of the east
coast of the United States. Surface cyclogensis originated over Southeastern Louisiana
on 25 December with snowfall beginning in the early morning hours in northern Alabama
and Mississippi and ending in the late evening on 27 December in New England. From
Raleigh, NC to Washington D.C. to New York City many densely populated areas were
affected by heavy snowfall resulting in significant impacts on travel; effects which were
multiplied due to the Christmas season.

The NCEP/NCAR GFS 1-degree analysis is employed to examine the life cycle
and characteristics of the ULJF systems associated with this cyclogensis event. Prior to
the development of this cyclone the upper-level flow was characterized by a ridge over
the Mountain West and an embedded shortwave trough over Texas. Within is upper-
level flow were several ULJF systems, the dynamics of which will be examined in the
context of their role in the development of precursors to this substantial surface
cyclogenesis event.


37

9 March 2013

1:20 PM – 1:40 PM

The Motion of Mesoscale Snowbands in Northeast U.S. Winter Storms

Jaymes S. Kenyon, Lance F. Bosart and Daniel Keyser
University at Albany, State University of New York
Michael S. Evans
NOAA/NWS, Binghamton, New York

The distribution of snowfall accumulation attending winter storms is a product of
both precipitation intensity and duration. Many heavy snowfall events are associated
with distinct mesoscale snowbands, which strongly modulate snowfall accumulation.
Mesoscale snowbands are known to be favored within environments characterized by
frontogenetical forcing in the presence of weak moist symmetric or gravitational
stabilities. Although the development of mesoscale snowbands can often be successfully
anticipated at 24−36 h forecast ranges, anticipating band duration at a fixed location
remains a forecasting problem. However, given that snowband duration is closely related
to attributes of snowband motion, improved understanding of band motion presents an
opportunity to improve snowfall accumulation forecasts.
This study investigates the synoptic and mesoscale features associated with
specific snowband motion characteristics. A classification scheme for snowband motion
is proposed, wherein bands are categorized as laterally translating, laterally quasi-
stationary, hybrid, or pivoting. Laterally translating bands exhibit predominately cross-
axis motion, thereby favoring uniform snowfall accumulation along their paths. In
contrast, laterally quasi-stationary bands exhibit approximately zero cross-axis motion,
favoring heavy snowfall accumulation along a narrow corridor. Hybrid bands are
dominated by along-axis motion, but with a concurrent cross-axis component of motion,
yielding snowfall accumulations on an intermediate spatial scale. Finally, pivoting bands
exhibit pronounced rotation over a limited region, yielding a quasi-stationary band in that
region, where heavy snowfall accumulation is particularly favored. Using archived
WSR-88D data, 71 heavy snow cases in the Northeast U.S. (spanning the years
2005−2010) are being classified according to this scheme. Gridded data from the 0.5°
resolution NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis are used to identify synoptic and
mesoscale features associated with these cases.
Preliminary results suggest that lower-tropospheric temperature advection, flow
confluence/diffluence, and flow curvature in the near-band environment are useful in
distinguishing between environments favoring laterally translating, laterally quasi-
stationary, hybrid, or pivoting snowband modes. These near-band environmental
attributes may be described by partitioning the Q-vector into along- and cross-stream
components, thereby providing a quantitative approach to anticipating snowband motion.
Four cases that typify these respective snowband modes and their attendant synoptic and
mesoscale environments will be presented.


38

9 March 2013

1:40 PM – 2:00 PM

A Case Study of the 6 August 2012 962 hPa Arctic Ocean Cyclone

Eric Adamchick
University at Albany, State University of New York
Albany, New York

The 962 hPa Arctic cyclone of August 2012 was one of the strongest
storms ever known to exist over the Arctic Ocean during the warm season.
Cyclogenesis of the storm was a result of a highly amplified pattern, which
created an anomalous baroclinic zone over Northern Russia. Warm air advection
from an antecedent cyclone over the Arctic Ocean further enhanced and shifted
this baroclinic zone poleward. Shortly after cyclogenesis, the developing cyclone
crossed the jet axis while phasing with the antecedent storm. Subsequently, the
storm encountered substantial dynamic forcing, and ultimately underwent a period
of rapid intensification. The aforementioned dynamic forcing persisted as the
cyclone progressed toward the pole; as a result, the central sea level pressure of
fell to an impressive 962 hPa.
The 962 hPa Arctic cyclone has drawn considerable attention from the
scientific community not only for its untimely strength and location, but also due
to the absence of sea ice leading up to, and during the formation of the storm.
Although few people were actually impacted by this storm, it is important to
know from a societal stand point whether the decreasing sea ice volume will
contribute to stronger and more frequent storms over the Arctic. If so, this could
have serious affects on shipping and drilling at high latitudes, negatively affecting
financial markets globally.


39

9 March 2013

2:00 PM – 2:20 PM

Field Observations and Modeling of the Microphysics Within Winter Storms
Over Long Island, NY

Brian A. Colle1, David Stark1,2, and Sandra Yuter3
1
School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, N
2
NOAA-National Weather Service, New York City, NY
3
North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC

Forecasting snowfall accumulation is challenging due to limitations and
uncertainties in the snow-liquid ratios and the model bulk microphysical
parameterizations (BMPs). The source of these errors is often unknown, since there have
been relatively few in situ observations of the microphysics (ice habit, degree of riming,
and snow density) during Northeast U.S. winter storms. This study investigates the
microphysical evolution and model validation within winter storms observed at Stony
Brook, NY (SBNY located on north shore of east-central Long Island) during the 2009-
2010, 2010-2011, and 2011-2012 winter seasons. Surface microphysical measurements
were taken every 15 to 30 minutes using a stereo microscope and camera, and snow depth
and snow density were also recorded in 15 storms over SBNY. During these storms, a
vertically-pointing Ku-band radar was used to observe the vertical evolution of
reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocities. A Particle Size and Velocity (PARSIVEL)
disdrometer was also used to measure the surface size distribution and fall speeds of
snow at SBNY.

Changes in the height of the maximum vertical motion relative to the favored
growth temperatures led to changes in ice habit throughout the evolution in the comma
head of extratropical cyclones and two heavy snow bands. Cold type ice habits with a few
plates and dendrites were observed with light riming as the surface low was located along
or east of the Mid-Atlantic coast. As the cyclones move northward towards Long Island,
moderately rimed dendrites, plates, and needles are generally observed. Heavily rimed
needles and graupel are often observed near the warm front and cyclone center. Mainly
needles with light riming and a snow-liquid ratio from 8:1 to 9:1 are observed 2 to 4
hours before two heavy snow bands. With the strongest frontogenetical ascent during
snow band maturity, moderately rimed dendrites were observed with snow-liquid ratios
from 11:1 to 13:1. Lightly rimed plates and a snow-liquid ratio of 8:1 were observed after
the heavy snow bands. The WSM6, MORR, THOM2, and SBU-YLIN BMPs in the
Weather Research and Forecasting model at 1.33-km grid spacing were validated in this
study. A non-spherical snow assumption (THOM2 and SBU-YLIN) simulated a more
realistic distribution of reflectivity than spherical snow assumptions in the WSM6 and
MORR schemes. In heavier riming, the Doppler velocity in the WSM6, THOM2, and
MORR schemes were ~0.25 m s-1 too slow with the SBU-YLIN was 0.25 to 0.5 m s-1 too
fast.


40

9 March 2013

1:00 PM – 1:20 PM

Dynamic and Statistical Modeling of Storm Surge for the New York City Region

Keith Roberts, Brian A. Colle, and Hamish Bowman
School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY

Superstorm Sandy (2012) devastated large parts of New York City (NYC), coastal
New Jersey, and Long Island. Although this storm was relatively well forecast by the
atmospheric models with a few days lead time, it was a more difficult prediction problem for
the storm surge models. The Storm Surge Research Group at Stony Brook has been doing
real-time storm surge predictions for several years using the Advanced Circulation
(ADCIRC) model, and Sandy offers some unique challenges given the large diameter of the
storm, large waves, and complex coastal geometry. This talk will first highlight some of our
surge predictions for this event from ADCIRC.

How these storm surges will change in the future is also an important issue for the
long-term coastal planning of the NYC region. We will present some evidence based on our
cyclone tracking research using global climate models from the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) that storms along the U.S. East coast may get more
intense heading into the mid-21st century. Since it is too computationally expensive to run
high-resolution surge models for several decades, we have developed a statistical model to
predict storm surge at the Battery, NYC using surface winds and sea-level pressure. This
work utilizes a least squares fitting technique to fit a linear equation to a set of data through
regression. The data for the historical analysis consists of NARR (North American Regional
Reanalysis Data) during the 1979-2012 period (sample size = 95,000). Observed water level
data is obtained from NOAA Tides & Currents. Every other year is used to train the
statistical model, and the other years are used to evaluate the model. Simple, multiple, and
segmented multiple linear regression techniques are used to create equations of varying
predictability using a set of atmospheric predictors. The statistical robustness of the various
models is determined through an analysis of variance (ANOVA). A set of three different
sized domains over the open water region adjacent to NYC are used to collect atmospheric
data in order to determine the best region that could represent the atmospheric winds and
pressure that drives storm surge. The statistical relationship between an N-hour-accumulated
sum of mean zonal wind stress values and observed surge is found to explain the most
variance (N=12, r =0.75) in the observed surge signal. It is found that the N time-length of
the accumulation of wind stress necessary to maximize the correlation of the model is
dependent on the spatial size of the domain. The various regression approaches can explain
43-65% of the storm surge variance, with the smallest errors (MAE of 0.10 m, 0.33 m, and
0.33 m for the all event, 0.6 m, and 1.0 m surge events, respectively, and very little mean
error) using the segmented approach. This statistical model is now being used with the
CMIP5 data to determine how storm surges may change the next several decades.


41

9 March 2013

1:20 PM – 1:40 PM

Comparison of Two Volcanic Ash Height Estimation Methods and Their Affects on
the HYSPLIT Volcanic Ash Model Output

Kyle Wodzicki
SUNY-Oswego

Volcanic ash plumes can cause many hazards, one being to safety of aircraft. Ash
particles damage aircrafts through the abrasion of their engines and in many cases can
lead to engine failure. To prevent aircraft from flying into ash plumes, the accurate
forecast of the plume’s dispersion is necessary. One model commonly used to forecast
ash plume dispersion is the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory
Model (HYSPLIT). However, to run this model, the top of the ash plume must be
accurately determined. Using two different cloud top estimation techniques, as well as
two different volcanic ash detection techniques to view the plume, the ash plume height
of an erupting volcano was determined. The heights from the two methods used were
compared and then entered into the HYSPLIT Volcanic Ash model. Plan view ash
dispersion of the various model runs was then compared to the actual ash plumes
recorded by satellite imagery to determine which height estimation was the most
accurate.


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