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WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? THE PREFERENCES OF CONSUMERS THAT RELATE TO MODAL CHOICE BETWEEN AIR TRANSPORT AND A POTENTIAL HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X SUBMITTED 30TH NOVEMBER 2011 HES4961A & HES4962A
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? ii Table of Contents TABLE  OF  CONTENTS  ...................................................................................................................................  II   TABLE  OF  FIGURES  .......................................................................................................................................  VI   ABSTRACT  .....................................................................................................................................................  VII   CHAPTER  1  –  INTRODUCTION  .................................................................................................................  10   1.1          PURPOSE  ..................................................................................................................................................................  10   1.2          BACKGROUND  .........................................................................................................................................................  11   1.2.1          Current  systems  worldwide  .......................................................................................................................  11   1.2.2          Previous  High  Speed  Rail  studies  ............................................................................................................  11   1.3          SCOPE  OF  THIS  STUDY  ............................................................................................................................................  12   1.4          RESEARCH  DESIGN  AND  METHODS  ......................................................................................................................  13   1.5          ASSUMPTIONS  .........................................................................................................................................................  13   1.6          LIMITATIONS  ...........................................................................................................................................................  13   1.7          DE-­‐LIMITATIONS  ....................................................................................................................................................  14   CHAPTER  2  –  LITERATURE  REVIEW  ......................................................................................................  15   2.1          INTRODUCTION  .......................................................................................................................................................  15   2.2          WHY  PEOPLE  TRAVEL  ...........................................................................................................................................  16   2.2.1          Leisure  ................................................................................................................................................................  17   2.2.2          Business  .............................................................................................................................................................  18   2.2.3          Emergency  ........................................................................................................................................................  19   2.3          CUSTOMER  DRIVERS  ..............................................................................................................................................  19   2.3.1          Preference  .........................................................................................................................................................  19   2.3.2          Technology  .......................................................................................................................................................  20   2.3.3          Demographics  .................................................................................................................................................  21   2.3.4          Access  to  Transport  ......................................................................................................................................  21   2.3.5          Price,  Service  &  Comfort  .............................................................................................................................  22   Price  ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................  23   Service  and  Comfort  ..................................................................................................................................................................................  23   2.4          MODES  OF  TRANSPORT  .........................................................................................................................................  24   2.4.1          Road  Transport  ..............................................................................................................................................  24   2.4.2          Rail  and  Public  transport  ...........................................................................................................................  25   2.4.3          Air  Transport  ...................................................................................................................................................  25   2.5          ENVIRONMENTAL  IMPACT  OF  MODES  .................................................................................................................  25   2.5.1          Infrastructure  .................................................................................................................................................  26   2.6          RELATIONSHIP  BETWEEN  MODES  .......................................................................................................................  26   2.6.1          Definition  ...........................................................................................................................................................  27  
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? iii 2.6.2          High-­‐Speed  Transport  .................................................................................................................................  28   2.6.3          Competition  ......................................................................................................................................................  28   2.6.4          Cooperation  ......................................................................................................................................................  29   2.6.5          Safety  ..................................................................................................................................................................  30   2.6.6          Reliability  /  Punctuality  .............................................................................................................................  30   2.6.7          Operating  Cost  ................................................................................................................................................  31   2.6.7.1          Vehicle  components  ...............................................................................................................................................................  31   2.6.7.2          Infrastructure  components  .................................................................................................................................................  31   2.6.7.3          Fuel  components  ......................................................................................................................................................................  32   2.6.8          Comparative  Environmental  Issues  .......................................................................................................  32   2.7          PAST  STUDIES  .........................................................................................................................................................  33   2.8          CONCLUSION  ...........................................................................................................................................................  35   2.9          ELEMENTS  MISSING  FROM  LITERATURE  ............................................................................................................  37   2.10          RESEARCH  QUESTION  .........................................................................................................................................  38   CHAPTER  3  –  RESEARCH  DESIGN  AND  METHODS  .............................................................................  39   3.1          INTRO  .......................................................................................................................................................................  39   3.2          RESEARCH  DESIGN  .................................................................................................................................................  39   Rationale  of  data  collection  survey  questions  ..................................................................................................  39   3.3          METHODS  ................................................................................................................................................................  41   Q  Methodology  ...............................................................................................................................................................  41   3.4          DATA  COLLECTION  .................................................................................................................................................  43   3.5          ANALYSIS  .................................................................................................................................................................  43   CHAPTER  4  –  FINDINGS  AND  ANALYSIS  ...............................................................................................  44   4.1          AVERAGE  TRAVEL  FREQUENCY  ............................................................................................................................  44   4.2          PRICE  RELATIVE  TO  AN  AIRFARE  .........................................................................................................................  46   4.3          PUBLIC  TRANSPORT  TICKET  CONNECTION  ........................................................................................................  48   4.4          MINIMUM  FREQUENCY  OF  A  HIGH  SPEED  RAIL  ................................................................................................  50   4.5          DESTINATIONS  EN-­‐ROUTE  ....................................................................................................................................  51   4.6          CONSUMERS  AVERAGE  TRAVEL  TIME  ..................................................................................................................  53   4.7          MAXIMUM  DURATION  OF  A  HIGH  SPEED  RAIL  ..................................................................................................  54   4.8          SECURITY  SCREENING  ...........................................................................................................................................  56   4.9          SERVICE  CLASSES  ...................................................................................................................................................  58   4.10          MINIMUM  REQUIRED  BAGGAGE  LIMIT  ............................................................................................................  59   4.11          ENVIRONMENTAL  IMPACT  AFFECTING  MODAL  CHOICE  ..............................................................................  60   4.12          IMPORTANCE  TO  PASSENGERS  OF  NO  DELAYS  ..............................................................................................  62   4.13          AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  PRICE  RELATIVE  TO  AIRFARE  .............................................................................  64   4.14          AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  TRANSPORT  CONNECTION  ..................................................................................  65  
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? iv 4.15          AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  HSR  DEPARTURE  FREQUENCY  ...........................................................................  66   4.16          AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  DESTINATIONS  EN-­‐ROUTE  ..................................................................................  68   4.17          AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  AVERAGE  TRAVEL  TIME  .......................................................................................  70   4.18          AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  BAGGAGE  ALLOWANCE  ........................................................................................  71   4.19          RELATIVE  PRICE  VS.  HSR  DEPARTURE  FREQUENCY  .....................................................................................  72   4.20          MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  DESTINATIONS  EN-­‐ROUTE  .........................................................................  73   4.21          MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  DIFFERENT  CLASSES  ...................................................................................  74   4.22          MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  DELAY  IMPORTANCE  ...................................................................................  75   4.23          RELATIVE  PRICE  VS.  MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  ...........................................................................................  77   4.24          MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  HSR  DEPARTURE  FREQUENCY  ..................................................................  79   4.25          MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  AVERAGE  TRAVEL  TIME  ..............................................................................  81   4.26          MEAN  BAGGAGE  ALLOWANCE  VS.  RELATIVE  PRICE  ......................................................................................  83   CHAPTER  5  –  CONCLUSION  AND  RECOMMENDATIONS  ...................................................................  84   5.1          INTRODUCTION  .......................................................................................................................................................  84   5.2          THE  RESULTS  ..........................................................................................................................................................  84   Average  current  frequency  between  Melbourne  and  Sydney  .................................................................................................  84   Average  current  Melbourne  –  Sydney  travel  time  .......................................................................................................................  85   Maximum  duration  of  the  HSR  journey  ............................................................................................................................................  85   Price  of  HSR  ticket  relative  to  an  airfare  ..........................................................................................................................................  85   Connecting  public  transport  to  the  HSR  ...........................................................................................................................................  86   Frequency  of  HSR  departures  ...............................................................................................................................................................  86   Destinations  en-­‐route  between  Melbourne  and  Sydney  ...........................................................................................................  86   Summary  ........................................................................................................................................................................................................  87   APPENDICES  ..................................................................................................................................................  88   SURVEY  QUESTIONS  ..........................................................................................................................................................  88   ETHICS  COMMITTEE  SUBMISSION  ..................................................................................................................................  90   SURVEY  RESULTS  ...........................................................................................................................................................  109   Average  Frequency  of  Travel  Melbourne-­‐Sydney  ........................................................................................  109   HSR  Ticket  Price  Relative  to  an  Airfare  ...........................................................................................................  109   Ticket  Connection  Option  .......................................................................................................................................  109   HSR  Departure  Frequency  .....................................................................................................................................  110   Number  of  Allowed  En-­‐route  Destinations  .....................................................................................................  110   Current  Average  Travel  Time  Mel-­‐Syd  .............................................................................................................  110   Maximum  Duration  of  HSR  Trip  ..........................................................................................................................  111   Security  Screening  Measures  Implemented  ....................................................................................................  111   Option  for  Different  Class  Tickets  .......................................................................................................................  111   Minimum  Free  Baggage  Allowance  ...................................................................................................................  112   Environmental  Concern  Impacting  ....................................................................................................................  112  
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? v Choice  between  Air  and  HSR  .................................................................................................................................  112   Importance  of  No  Delay  ..........................................................................................................................................  112   REFERENCES  ...............................................................................................................................................  113    
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? vi Table of figures FIGURE  4.  1  –  AVERAGE  TRAVEL  FREQUENCY  .......................................................................................................................................  44   FIGURE  4.  2  –  PRICE  RELATIVE  TO  AN  AIRFARE  ....................................................................................................................................  46   FIGURE  4.  3  –  PUBLIC  TRANSPORT  TICKET  CONNECTION  ....................................................................................................................  48   FIGURE  4.  4  –  MINIMUM  FREQUENCY  OF  A  HIGH  SPEED  RAIL  ...........................................................................................................  50   FIGURE  4.  5  –  DESTINATIONS  EN-­‐ROUTE  ...............................................................................................................................................  51   FIGURE  4.  6  –  CONSUMERS  AVERAGE  TRAVEL  TIME  .............................................................................................................................  53   FIGURE  4.  7  –  MAXIMUM  DURATION  OF  A  HIGH  SPEED  RAIL  .............................................................................................................  54   FIGURE  4.  8  –  SECURITY  SCREENING  ......................................................................................................................................................  56   FIGURE  4.  9  –  SERVICE  CLASSES  ..............................................................................................................................................................  58   FIGURE  4.  10  –  MINIMUM  REQUIRED  BAGGAGE  LIMIT  ........................................................................................................................  59   FIGURE  4.  11  –  ENVIRONMENTAL  IMPACT  AFFECTING  MODAL  CHOICE  ............................................................................................  60   FIGURE  4.  12  –  IMPORTANCE  TO  PASSENGERS  OF  NO  DELAYS  ...........................................................................................................  62   FIGURE  4.  13  –  AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  PRICE  RELATIVE  TO  AIRFARE  .........................................................................................  64   FIGURE  4.  14  –  AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  TRANSPORT  CONNECTION  ..............................................................................................  65   FIGURE  4.  15  –  AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  HSR  DEPARTURE  FREQUENCY  .......................................................................................  66   FIGURE  4.  16  –  AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  DESTINATIONS  EN-­‐ROUTE  ..............................................................................................  68   FIGURE  4.  17  –  AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  AVERAGE  TRAVEL  TIME  ..................................................................................................  70   FIGURE  4.  18  –  AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  BAGGAGE  ALLOWANCE  ....................................................................................................  71   FIGURE  4.  19  –  RELATIVE  PRICE  VS.  HSR  DEPARTURE  FREQUENCY  .................................................................................................  72   FIGURE  4.  20  –  MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  DESTINATIONS  EN-­‐ROUTE  .....................................................................................  73   FIGURE  4.  21  –  MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  DIFFERENT  CLASSES  ...............................................................................................  74   FIGURE  4.  22  –  MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  DELAY  IMPORTANCE  ..............................................................................................  75   FIGURE  4.  23  –  RELATIVE  PRICE  VS.  MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  ......................................................................................................  77   FIGURE  4.  24  –  MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  HSR  DEPARTURE  FREQUENCY  ..............................................................................  79   FIGURE  4.  25  –  MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  AVERAGE  TRAVEL  TIME  .........................................................................................  81   FIGURE  4.  26  –  MEAN  BAGGAGE  ALLOWANCE  VS.  RELATIVE  PRICE  ..................................................................................................  83  
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? vii Abstract The purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which the consumer’s travel preferences and requirements determine the modal choice selected when travelling between Melbourne and Sydney. The particular modes that were examined are air travel, against the possibility of having a High-speed rail link between the two cities in the future. Past studies have looked at the feasibility of a High-speed rail link, with the focus on the affordability of the project and the cost surrounding the building and operation of the system. This study on the other hand, will focus on the standards that a High-speed rail link would need to meet, before it became competitive with air travel and attractive to the general public, to understand the type of system that needs to be built before conducting any cost measures. Customer drivers were at the forefront of this study. Other studies had found that the cost of travel was most important to consumers, in conjunction with the experience, interchanges required, reliability of the service, travel times and waiting times, car ownership, comfort, luggage space, gender and the total travel distance. These factors would form the basis to which the primary research of this study would surround. The variables were measured by conducting interviews with the general public, using Q-methodology, to provide a sliding scale of preferences and requirements to which the respondent could best match their answer to each topic. The subject matter for each question was determined from the factors found to be important to travellers by other studies. The results from the questions determined the extent to which the factors weighed in with the consumer and if they related to the answers they gave for other questions. These results were analysed and compared with the use of graphs to represent the frequency of responses for individual questions, and then explore the reasons behind the results and the implications for the study. The results indicated that price was a significant factor in changing modes from air travel to High-speed rail, but was also dependent on the frequency of travel of the consumer and the departure frequency of the High-speed rail. The duration of the journey was also a factor, with most respondents not accepting a longer travel time than their current voyage. An overwhelming majority of those interviewed wanted public transport connections included in their High-speed rail ticket, which also depended on the frequency of travel. The frequency of departures of a High-speed rail in its own right was a factor, with the determination that they needed to be more often in peak periods of the day.
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? viii The destinations en-route for a High-speed rail to serve became a factor, which was also linked to the frequency of travel, with more frequent travellers preferring fewer stops along the journey. The results are important for the planning of a potential High-speed rail link between Melbourne and Sydney or further along the east coast of Australia. If the results of the surveyed portioned of the population were scaled up to represent the total populations of cities along the east coast, ridership forecasts could be made depending on how the service requirements may be met in the planning of a future High-speed rail link. This is not only important for infrastructure planners, but town planners along possible routes, land owners, prospective operators of a High-speed rail and the airlines to which it may be competing with.
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? ix Acknowledgements The researchers would like to acknowledge the makers of SOFA Statistics, who were the providers of the user-friendly statistics and reporting program. It is free software, with an emphasis on ease of use, beautiful output and learn-as-you-go. The SOFA Statistics program was used to interpret the data from a spreadsheet, to create graphs, in particular the correlation graphs, which were an integral part of the results and recommendations from this research. The SOFA Statistics program can be found at www.sofastatistics.com/
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 10 CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION The topic of High Speed Rail is one that stirs many differing opinions. Some advocate that the infrastructure should have been implemented in Australia years ago 1.1 Purpose The study will aim to base research around the topic of how a high-speed rail network would compete with air travel, with questions surrounding the service level of air travel and on what factors a high speed rail could compete. Past studies in Australia have looked at the feasibility of a high-speed rail network by looking at the affordability of the project, with the focus on attracting investors to build and or operate the system, by investigating the cost of the project against the return it may bring. These studies have covered areas such as land capture, possible routes that the network could take to join the cities, any tunnelling or bridges to be built along the way, the types of trains and carriages that would be suitable, the cost of operation and the scope of the project in terms of what area of the country will be served. This research, to be conducted in a much simpler and cost effective way, will focus on the preferences of the public, to investigate the requirements they have in terms of the performance and service level of a high-speed train in its own right and in competition to air travel. The belief of this concept is that it will form the basis of the details when considering the factors that other studies have already gone through. These appear to be premature, without an understanding of such questions as how fast a train would need to be, what towns should be served and how much tickets should cost. Without an understanding of these factors and many more, such “feasibility” studies would be less effective, than those that have a background understanding of the preferences and requirements of the public who would be using a high-speed rail if it existed.
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 11 1.2 Background 1.2.1 Current systems worldwide High Speed Rail infrastructure has been prevalent in many countries around the world for many years. It is well known that France’s TGV and Japan’s Shinkansen networks profitably operate daily services for hundreds of thousands of people. People taking the Shinkansen, for example, quite often live in very rural areas great distances (some 200-300km) away of the cities yet the speed and efficiency of the trains mean they can spend much less time travelling than a lot of Australians do on the city metro systems. This gives a strong case for High Speed Rail in Australia as regional areas and cities such as Geelong (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Bendigo (Vic), Parramatta (NSW), could very well see the same commute times as those rural Japanese areas. Likewise in France, it is a common argument to hear whether it is faster to fly or catch train from Paris to London. The reliability and punctuality of service is much easier to manage with a rail service that gives reason to believe that catching a train can often be quicker than an hour-long flight. Also, due to the minimal land requirements compared to an airport, trains can travel directly into the central city that reduces transfer time significantly. It is these benefits that advocates for the High Speed Rail use to support the introduction of the infrastructure into Australia. By having a train and an airline service the same group of travelers, a large amount of competition is created which is a large benefit to the public. High Speed Rail in particular places a large amount of competitive pressure on the respective air sectors because of the ability for a High Speed Rail to transport people directly to and from the city centres. The effect that this type of increased competition has on airlines is very dramatic; JAL is one carrier that debatably suffered dearly from competition from High Speed Rail. 1.2.2 Previous High Speed Rail studies A High Speed Rail link between Melbourne and Sydney has been considered many times previously. The first proposal for building any High Speed Rail infrastructure in Australia dates back into the 1980s. These plans were rejected after claims of under budgeting and the project was deemed not economical. Despite multiple feasibility studies in the decades following, 1986, 1989, 1993, 2000 and 2007, each subsequent proposal into building the infrastructure so far has been met with similar dismissal based on economic reasons. Each proposal followed similar details in
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 12 terms of main corridors and top speeds, and strongly based the principles of their proposal on currently operational systems such as the TGV in France. In 2009, the group that piloted the 2007 study, the Canberra Business Council, proposed a slightly different benefit in its study to the generic economic development benefits that been proposed in the past. It indicated that a High Speed Rail link between Melbourne and Sydney to can act as very fast link between Canberra and Sydney, allowing Canberra airport to act as a secondary to Sydney’s congested Kingsford Smith International airport. Together with air travel data highlighting Melbourne-Sydney as the fourth busiest route in the world, support for the High Speed Rail infrastructure is growing and transport organisations and government departments are again conducting feasibility studies. The most recent study, in a preliminary Phase 1 stage as this project has started, is another government commissioned study aimed at using 2011 data in analysis for economic recommendations. The data is due to be available for private viewing in July of 2011 and publicly released in August 2011. The expectation is that this study will be very similar in scope to the previous releases, with focuses on raw population statistics to determine demand, growth rates, congestion and best station locations. 1.3 Scope of this study All of these studies appear to have a common quantitative approach when making recommendations. These quantitative approaches deal predominantly with national statistics, rather than the desires of the public. The common way of product and service design in general is to ask what society wants to gain from the product or service and design it based on these recommendations. If a product or service does not satisfy a need for a consumer, the provider will find it hard to sell to people. This is common for all items. It is the belief of the researchers that this concept certainly extends to a potential High Speed Rail network in Australia. The service must provide a benefit that people want for the appropriate price. It is also seen that a High Speed Rail link between Melbourne and Sydney would impact on the patronage of air travel. This type of study can be done by interviewing the general public, unlike other studies into the feasibility of a high-speed rail network, which may look at the costs surrounding infrastructure building and operation. Questions will be modelled around variables of service, such as speed, price and frequency, as well and secondary factors such as baggage limits and classes of service.
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 13 The study will be conducted over a few days in Melbourne’s springtime, with the aim to report on 150 respondents and their opinions or viewpoints across the variables found to be significant within the literature review. The interview will be conducted one on one with the respondent, taking approximately 3 minutes to answer multiple choice questions, with the option of adding any comments or asking questions at the end of the survey. 1.4 Research design and methods The research will be conducted to investigate the preferences of the public in regard to performance measures and service levels of high-speed travel. The variables that are to be measured are a combination of factors that were found to be important following the literature review. These variables will be measured by the Q- methodology method, giving a sliding scale of preference for the respondent to answer to. Following the primary data collection, results will be tabulated and graphs created to view the findings. Findings will be looked at on an individual basis then compared with against other relevant factors to uncover any correlations between answers for individual questions. 1.5 Assumptions Assumptions will be made in accordance with the small sample that has been taken in the data set. It is assumed that the 155 respondents give an accurate representation of the general public and their views expressed in the data. It is also assumed that the answers available to the respondent are those that cover all preferences and viewpoints on a topic. It is further assumed that the time, date and location of the conduction of interviews would not change the data for any other time, date and location. It is assumed that the answers to the questions given were answered truthfully and give an accurate representation of the views or attitudes of the respondent. 1.6 Limitations Limitations of the study were based around locations for the conduct of research and in tern the demographic of those to be interviewed. The primary idea was for the research to be conducted in the departure lounge of the Sydney and Melbourne domestic airports for flights departing between those cities. The reason for this being
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 14 to investigate the competition that a high-speed rail network would bring to the busy city pair, by uncovering the preferences and requirements of those who often travel in this sector. Failing to receive permission from either airport to conduct research within the departure lounges or anywhere else in the airport, it was left to the second option of finding respondents from the general public. The scope of the study then changed in term of demographics, which can be expected to alter the results of the findings. A positive of this, is that the results would be less biased to those who travel frequently between the cities, and may uncover the potential for a new market of traveller who would use a high-speed train, as opposed to what market share may be taken from the current air travel numbers. 1.7 De-limitations Limits of the study, which were of the researchers doing, were based around the scope of the study being limited to the Melbourne to Sydney sector. It was chosen to research this single sector for simplification purposes and with the belief that the preferences that were being researched would hold minimal variation across other cities within Australia. With Melbourne to Sydney and vice versa being one of the busiest city pairs in the world for air travel, the study would be expected to find many frequent travellers within the set of respondents to the survey. This would in tern be expected to shed light on the preferences of travellers on this sector and how a high-speed rail link would compete with the air travel currently in place, along with the attraction it may bring to the less frequent traveller.
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 15 CHAPTER 2 – LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction High Speed Rail (HSR) projects have been a reality for decades now. As many countries have already invested heavily in the specialised infrastructure and technology, namely France, Japan and Korea, there is much literature on the impact these projects have had on those country’s economy, environment and social patterns. Likewise, there have been several economic feasibility studies performed over this time for a HSR link between Melbourne and Sydney, all of which have failed to attract contractual agreements. However, the broad focus of this literature review is to determine how current implementations of HSR around the world operate their services in terms of service levels, schedules, cost management and public relations and what social factors influence the success of a HSR system. This is to then be used to identify which aspects are the most beneficial for new High Speed Rail projects to adopt in order to be successful in a brand new market such as Melbourne-Sydney. Before beginning the search for literature, this topic was divided into the concise sections seen in the table of contents. It is important to determine what reasons people use for travel, as such, the initial focus is to define travel within the context of people’s underlying compulsive need to travel. To aid the explanation, some broad travel categories can be looked in to: Leisure, Business and Emergency. Within this, it is important to find out how commonly these topics were used to define individual trips to determine how important these reasons were to understand why people travel. The next topic to discuss expands on the previous by discussing what drives consumers to choose particular modes and whether their circumstances can justify their travel behaviour. The focus is on customer preference and their attraction to certain variables within the services offered. Alongside this, it is also intended to explore how demographics or social status can be an influence to these choices. Following on from this, a discussion of what the literature indicates is the reasons for choosing a particular mode is required. It will build on the previous discussion by contextualising it more towards what advantages the three main publically available modes (Road, Rail/Public Transport and Air) offer to people.
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 16 So far, the focus has been on what benefits the consumer requires and perceives to receive from the respective services. An analysis of what the literature says about a high-speed transport service being a competitor to conventional modes also needs to be undertaken. This area will look at the more reportable and tangible economic advantages/disadvantages of High Speed Rail implementation compared to other modes. It can be expected that competition as well as cooperation of the modes will be discussed as well as the safety issues, mode reliability and operation costs. Finally, as society continues to focus more heavily on the impact of society on the planet, the environmental issues specifically associated with building and operating a HSR system will be looked at. 2.2 Why People Travel The question that seems quite straightforward to answer can be explored in detail as Urry (2002) has done, focusing on the question of why people physically travel when there are other alternatives to the traveller. He lists these as ‘imaginative’ and ‘virtual’ travel and are a substitute to the “physical movement of objects”. Imaginative travel being the images of people and places from those not of our own projected in media such as television, or audio broadcasted on radio. Urry (2002) also defines virtual travel being the real time transmission of these media to other places through communication channels such as telephone and Internet. Urry (2002) explains that despite the “risks, uncertainties and frustrations of corporeal movement”, a “sense of belonging with various others is sensed and sustained” only with physical travel. Kaplan (cited in Urry (2002), p.257) is of the same opinion in regards to physical travel, concurring that it is “unavoidable, indisputable, and always necessary for family, love and friendship as well as work” and claims, “it ought to be an essential part of one’s life and is a fundamental human right.” He also says the “widespread growth of longer-range mobility especially by air, as conferences, holidays, family connections, diasporic relations and work are increasingly internationalised”. Szerszynski (cited in Urry (2002), p.261) gives some other examples of times where physical travel cannot be substituted as “festivals, conferences, holidays, camps, seminars and sites of protest”, while Lewis (cited in Urry (2002), p.261) simply says that “many places need to be seen for oneself to be experienced directly”.
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 17 Prato and Trivero (cited in Urry (2002), p.257) add another reason for travel is that it may be a “key marker of status”, while Hooks (cited in Urry (2002), p. 258) rationalises that “home is no longer one place, it is locations”. Frisby and Featherstone (cited in Urry (2002), p.259) say that the physical proximity between two people is essential, “since looking at one another is what effects the connections and interactions of individuals”. Urry explains that people may desire, feel obliged, or find it appropriate to have moments of physical proximity to particular people, places or events. He states “virtual and imaginative travel will not simply substitute for corporeal travel since intermittent co-presence appears obligatory for sustaining much social life”. Boden and Molotch (cited in Urry (2002), p. 259) agree that “Co-present interaction is fundamental to social intercourse; virtual travel will not significantly replace physical travel”. When looking at the alternatives to physical travel, Boden and Molotch (cited in Urry (2002), p. 260) say that “letters, memos, faxes and email are less effective at establishing long-term trust relations especially over emotional, personal or financial domains of activity”. Urry is of the same opinion in that he says the “pleasures of conversation are so profound that virtual travel will not erode people’s compulsion to physical proximity”. Putnam (cited in Urry (2002), p.268) concurs, “frequent contact on the Internet is a complement to frequent face-to-face contact, not a substitute for it”. It can be seen that why and whether people travel, if and why they would or could change to a virtual or imaginative form of travel, depends greatly on social factors, technologies, status, income, proximity to travel means and the closeness or farness of the destination (Urry 2002). 2.2.1 Leisure Leisure makes up a large part of the transport market - 74% of U.S. domestic person traffic according to the U.S. Travel Association (Miller & Washington 2010) - and can be brought on by many mutually independent factors. There has been substantial change in the constraints of normal society, particularly in the employment sector (Schlich et al. 2004). According to Garhammer (cited in Schlich et al. (2004), p.220), between 1965 and 1995 Germany’s average working week decreased from 48.3 to 38.1 hours, and in the U.S.A. over the same period it decreased from 52.5 to 42 hours. This decrease in working hours can be expected to correlate with an increase in leisure time, where it is expected that leisure travel would occur. Likewise, leave
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 18 entitlements have increased over the same period and the retirement age has decreased (Garhammer cited in Schlich et al. (2004)) allowing for more frequent and extended periods of leisure time. Combine these factors with an increase in the average income and car ownership and usage, leisure activities are undertaken much easier. In a more philosophical focus, Lazendorf (2002) explores how a person’s leisure travel behaviour is fundamentally linked to their lifestyle. The traveller’s intent may be to reach a destination where another activity may take place or to travel simply for platonic reasons, either way it is “an everyday activity and, as such,… is part of an individual’s lifestyle symbolism” (Lanzendorf 2002). Kaplan (cited in Urry (2002), p.257) further amplifies the idea that lifestyle relates to leisure travel by stating that the culture she has grown up with has made her believe that “US citizens [could] travel anywhere they pleased” . The assumption here is that one would not travel just ‘anywhere’ if they had some prerogative external to their psyche; it would relate to a particular purpose. 2.2.2 Business The premise for business travel is that it facilitates the necessary “embodied, face-to- face encounter[s]” which are needed to complete many business elements by bringing together “spatially distributed individuals” (Beaverstock et al. 2009). These encounters were largely associated with negotiations, marketing and sales. Since these communications were typically characterised by uncertainty and ambiguity, there is a need to establish trust and confidence between the parties (Lian & Denstadli 2004). The market for business travel reflects this mentality, making up 56% of the Norwegian domestic air market and 70-80% of the passenger revenue in Norway and the US (Denstadli 2009; Lian & Denstadli 2004). This strong market has seen the propagation of consultancy firms, reports, websites and magazines such as Carlson Wagonlit Travel, Barclaycard Business Traveller Survey, BusinessTraveller.com and TravelPlus, respectively (Beaverstock et al. 2009). The introduction of video conference (VC) technology did not seem to have a significant effect on business travel levels; 25% of respondents to a survey said VC had replaced parts of their travel activity (Lian & Denstadli 2004). While there is no mention of the relative Australian statistics in this document, due to the globalised function of business travel and travel services it can be assumed that in principle this data can be related to the Australian market also. However, as this
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 19 data is unfortunately quite old in terms of market research it can only be applied as a general insight to the industry. 2.2.3 Emergency The types of causes behind travelling for emergency reasons can usually only be attributed to some sort of dangerous situation arising. Skran & Daughtry (2007) discuss the issues that create refugees by quoting J. H. Simpson, “the cause of every refugee movement is tyranny of one kind or another”. They go further to describe political situations such as the Nazi regime, the Cold War and Vietnam War as “the main reason for a mass exodus”. Akin to political motivations, natural disaster has an effect on the travel of individuals from an area as discussed by Gutmann & Field (2010). They describe the situation that arose from Hurricane Katrina in 2005 whereby 80% of New Orleans residents were reportedly evacuated. These movements also span many millennia into the past with the Israelites’ exodus from Egypt in 1628 BCE with the Minoan eruption (Collins 2009). From these references we can see multiple studies have been made to discuss the effect of emergency situations on people’s requirement to travel. It is shown that political instability and natural disasters are the most prevalent of these issues. However, the obvious aspect that seems to be omitted when discussing the research on this topic is how personal emergencies contribute to the numbers. This lends to the belief that either it is a relatively insignificant factor when analysing travel trends and/or no research has been undertaken in this area. This is assumed to be because of the sporadic nature of this type of trip and/or, due to possible sensitivities of the concept, could be masked as ‘leisure’. 2.3 Customer Drivers 2.3.1 Preference There is much literature on the features of transport that users require, or preference of one attribute over other factors, which seems to vary according to the circumstance the user may find themselves in. Uchida et al. (2007) found that a preference to chose one mode of travel over another, was to do with actual travel times, comfort of the transit system, expected waiting times and the cost of the transport.
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 20 A number of other studies (Mandel, Gonzales-Savignat and Roman cited in Van Goeverden (2009), p.22-23) found the most important factors were travel time and cost, all agreeing that frequency was of little importance. Van Goeverden (2009) explained the insignificance of frequency was due to the planning that goes into medium or long distance trips. It was found that it is not unreasonable to have low frequencies for these travels, only requiring high frequency services for short, unplanned trips. There was a disagreement with Roman (cited in Van Goeverden (2009), p23) and Siraut & Gay (2009) finding access / egress time was of importance, while Gonzales- Savignat (cited in Van Goeverden (2009), p.23) found otherwise. It was detailed by Glazebrook (2009) that the out of pocket costs were what determined travel choice, and that if users paid the total costs at the time of a trip, travel choices would be different. Van Goeverden (2009) elaborated by finding that other factors such as car ownership, number of destinations on the journey, luggage space, gender, distance and number of interchanges played a part in preferences. Siraut & Gay (2009) found further factors, being the journey experience, number of interchanges and the regularity or reliability of the service. A study into older population ridership found their requirements to be more modes choices, value for money, high quality service, greater degree of service articulation and services tailored to specific needs or specific trips. (Burkhardt 2003) 2.3.2 Technology Adoption of new technology is expected to enable significant growth in the transport sector when combined with high economic growth rates (Ubbels, Rodenburg & Nijkamp 2003). People in general have an attraction to technology (Burke 2002). The proliferation of Automatic Teller Machines resulted from customer’s increasing need for convenience, same with the wide-spread use of the UPC barcode scanners in retail stores (Burke 2002) are two such examples. It’s not a one-way affair either; successful marketing of products creates customer desire. High-profile technology like new aircraft create significant hype to which people react very strongly to as Westnage (2010) discovers in a discussion with Airbus’ Chief of Sales John Leahy. Computer access at home is increasing as post-2001 Census data already showed a 50% penetration rate for one or more home computers in the US (Burke 2002). However, Burke also says that even with this technology at hand, customers only want it if it is to simplify processes and provide immediate tangible benefits. As
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 21 people become more familiar with technology and it becomes exposed to younger generations, expectations will change (Burke 2002). 2.3.3 Demographics Demographics is defined by Urry (2002), in the transport sense, as the analysis of “why people travel, and whether they should travel in the way they currently do, is to interrogate a complex set of social practices, social practices that involve old and emerging technologies that reconstruct notions of proximity and distance, closeness and farness, stasis and movement, the body and the other”. Many studies have found that higher income levels result in greater number of journeys and distance travelled (Gender and class in urban transport: the cases of Xian and Hanoi 2010; Mallett & McGuckin 2000; Ubbels, Rodenburg & Nijkamp 2003). It was detailed by Mallett & McGuckin (2000) that people in the highest income group take twice as many trips and travel twice as far as those in the lower income group. Siraut & Gay (2009) agreed, finding that those in the highest income quintile travel nearly three times the distance as those in the lowest quintile of income groups. (Gender and class in urban transport: the cases of Xian and Hanoi 2010) also added that income related to the type of transport, with a greater use of motorised transport with an increasing income. This was reiterated by Siraut & Gay (2009) who found that an increasing income led to more car and train trips, with less bus or walking trips. Outwater et al. (2003) found that age was a factor, with younger respondents having a greater need for time saving than older counterparts. In addition, Wang, Khattak & Fan (2009) discovering that younger people were more likely to use travel information, and Mallett & McGuckin (2000) stating that the young and old make more local trips, with middle-age making more frequent long-distance trips. As the number of people in a household and the number of children increased, Outwater et al. (2003) found that there was a greater need for time-savings. 2.3.4 Access to Transport Urry (2002) explains people will seek to improve their social capital with access to greater mobility, for a lack of mobility is a real problem in social groups. Shove (cited in Siraut & Gay (2009), p.) says that “the ability and willingness to travel is key to fully participating in the economic, social and cultural life of modern society”.
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 22 It is said that as individuals either desire to, or take on more roles in their lives, society becomes more travel demanding. There were two issues to be discovered from this. Firstly, either the unwillingness, or simply the inability to access the transport system can be an access problem. The second being users of the transport system, with an unwillingness, or inability to use the services to their full potential. The result of either of these issues, was found to be lower opportunities in terms of work, training or services in society. Siraut & Gay (2009) say the reasons for limited access can be grouped in four factors, being financial, physical, organisational and temporal. Financial relates to the lack of funds to access the transport. Physical is the ability to arrive at the transport and enter the system. Organisational relates to the ticketing, information, interchange of the services and where they go. And temporal is the matching of services running to where people want to go at the appropriate time. Research into travel information and how this impacted on access was investigated by Wang, Khattak & Fan (2009). They found people would acquire travel information if they had longer travel times, a higher household income, were a younger person, and lived in a household with more vehicles. They were more likely to change a travel decision once accessing the information, depending on their age, the source, the frequency and the time of residence in the area. The more often someone accessed travel information, the more likely they were to change their plans. The greatest influence came from the internet, although it was found television was accessed more often. Natvig & Westerheim (2007) suggest the time at which information is sought has an effect on access or changes to modes. They say static information like timetable affect pre-trip planning where as dynamic information like traffic information may induce en-route changes to access other modes or routes. 2.3.5 Price, Service & Comfort Literature suggests that people in general are very sensitive to upfront costs, advertised services and relative comfort of transport modes (Peek & Hagen 2002). These sensitivities seem to be independent of particular modes (Jackson & Jucker 1982) and as such give us the ability to perform an unbiased review. This section discusses these three variables that influence the choice of modes.
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 23 Price Van Goeverden (2009) places strong emphasis on the influence of price in traveller’s choice in transport mode. The author cites Gonzales-Savignat and Ettema et al., who place cost as the second most important variable in mode choice, and the study of Roman et al. (cited in van Goeverden 2009) placed price as the primary influencing variable. When aligning transport user’s reactions to price head-to-head, Cools et al. (2009) discovers that “most people are convinced that costs are lower for public transport than for car, [which indicates] that low bus fares are important to stimulate people to use public transport”. In the work of Glazebrook (2009), of the three factors influencing travel choice being discussed in this section, cost appears to have the most elastic effect on demand. Costs are divided into “out-of-pocket” and “external” costs. It is discussed that “external” costs (i.e. insurance, registration, servicing, parking for a car etc.) are substantially latent - not experienced at the time of the trip as “out-of-pocket” costs are (i.e. toll roads, petrol). Affecting car users most significantly, these “external” costs mask the true total cost of a particular mode (Glazebrook 2009) and the cost imposed on other travellers (congestion, accident risk and pollution) (Hensher & Hauge 2002). As such, the finding of Cools et al. (2009) mentioned above and the conclusions from Glazebrook (2009) and Vuchic et al. (1998) indicate that raising the “out-of-pocket” cost of a particular mode will most likely change the make-up of mode choices. Service and Comfort Service encompasses a rather broad range of concepts and benefits offered by transport modes. “Service quality criteria fall into 10 key categories” (Burkhardt 2003), the category that notably recurs in other literature is timeliness. Outwater et al., Peek & Hagen and Siraut & Gay (2003; 2002; 2009) highlight the importance of time with their respective studies analysing the factors that influence modal choice. Introducing us to the term “time poverty”, Siraut & Gay (2009) highlight that in the current day, people do not have the time available to them to do everything they need to do. As such, people do not want to waste time travelling which makes speed (Outwater et al. 2003) and punctuality (Jackson & Jucker 1982) a traveller’s primary requirement. Another most notable factor is areas relating to customer-staff interactions. The “availability of station [and on-board] personnel enhances the experience” (Siraut & Gay 2009) which is also covered in Burkhardt (2003)’s ‘10 key categories’ under the abbreviated points of: Courtesy, Communication, Responsiveness and Security. To
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 24 a similar effect, the tangible, non-personal, physical aspects of a travel mode also affect a passenger’s perception of service. From digestion of the work by Cools et al. (2009), Beaverstock et al. (2009) and Peek & Hagen (2002), factors that constitute comfort can be deduced as being non- personal services; as such, Comfort can be thought of as an extension of Service. Peek & Hagen (2002) classify these tangible comfort aspect as the “visual features” which include the “architectural layout, colours and materials used, cleanliness, and light [levels]”. Hensher & Hauge (2002) classify both of these factors under the criteria of “Acceptability” in their “Five A’s of Senior-Friendly Transportation” model. In addition to these visual comfort aspects covered above, Cools et al. (2009), Beaverstock et al. (2009) and Peek & Hagen (2002) include amenities such as electricity outlets, internet access and access to entertainment media while in transit to the mix of services available to travellers as comfort items. The availability of these services is becoming prolific with the decreasing cost of technology (Peek & Hagen 2002). It is evident from these authors’ work that service is quite a broad topic but each facet within it has a profound effect on a traveller’s modal choice. 2.4 Modes of Transport Modern transport literature concerns itself with only three types of transport: road, rail and air. As: “the choice of transport mode is a complex process that is influenced by several factors, such as socio-demographic variables, psycho-sociological variables, the type of journey, the perceived service performance of each transport mode and situational variables” (Cools et al. 2009) the reported advantages and disadvantages of the respective modes in the literature are outlined in the sections below. 2.4.1 Road Transport The car is a fundamental method of transport for many people because of its “instrumental function (it enables activities), but also for its symbolic (car is a means to express yourself or your social position) and affective (driving is pleasurable and arousing) function” (Cools et al. 2009).
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 25 The research of Nilsson & Kuller and Hiscock et al. (cited in Cools et al. (2009), p.440), agree that car affection seems to be one of the strongest forces for this particular mode. It also has very flexible application over greatly varied distances (Lyons & Chatterjee 2008) with its superior length of infrastructure. Buses, while technically a road-going transport mode, tend to be classified by the literature together with rail transport under the broader umbrella of ‘public transport’ (Cools et al. 2009). The conclusion of Cools et al. in regard to favouring the car for its instrumental function, can be reinforced by the finding of Jackson & Jucker (1982) when they say “the “reliability” of a particular mode or route plays an important role in the traveller’s choice behaviour, both with regard to mode choice and route choice”. 2.4.2 Rail and Public transport Literature strongly favours the use of public transport. The main reasons behind this is metropolitan rail, followed by bus, is the cheapest mode for travellers in terms of total cost, the greenhouse gas emissions are lower, the accident rate is lower and it creates less congestion (Glazebrook 2009). The survey of Cools et al. (2009) also concludes that public transport is popular for some since it gives them productive time which driving a car would not do, unfortunately they also lose privacy and convenience. For most people who utilise public transport, they do not regard other modes as a status symbol or part of their identity (Cools et al. 2009). 2.4.3 Air Transport Air travel becomes a critical mode once large distances are involved – Lyons & Chatterjee (2008) say this starts to become obvious at the 1600km marker. Like the car (road) mode, trips occur over many distances dependent on the purpose and point of origin (Lyons & Chatterjee 2008). In the 10 year period since 1997, domestic aircraft movements have increased by 17%, while kilometres flown have increased by 26% and hours flown increased by 24% (BITRE 2008) indicating that aircraft are being used for longer sectors than in the past. This is coherent with the findings of Lyons & Chatterjee above. 2.5 Environmental impact of modes The necessity to consider environmental footprints when conducting travel activities is very prevalent in popular culture and media (Kahn & Morris 2009). More and more
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 26 company leaders now acknowledge and account for their company’s environmental impact (Beaverstock et al. 2009). The key concern for many of these firms is their carbon emissions from business related travel; it is not uncommon for travel to make up the majority of their total output (Beaverstock et al. 2009). Since the transport sector is the “largest end-use energy sector” (Root cited in Babalik-Sutcliffe (2007), p. 486) and produces “more than one-quarter of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions” (Hamilton cited in Babalik-Sutcliffe (2007), p. 486), it is expected to need to go though substantial policy shift in order to fall into line with sustainability objectives (Babalik-Sutcliffe 2007). 2.5.1 Infrastructure The emerging policies of most countries have put emphasis on the need to move passenger and freight transport from petro-dependent modes such as road and air. So far, the growth of modes has not been equal, growing faster in the polluting modes than those that are seen as more economically and environmentally sustainable, such as rail and sea (Babalik-Sutcliffe 2007). The research of Kingham et al. (cited in Cools et al. (2009), p. 438) says that people are aware of the environmental impact of their car use and are willing to use alternatives. Positively, there is shift towards the use of public transport in the last few years, particularly toward rail (Cools et al. 2009), the lowest emitter of greenhouse gasses of the three main modes (Chester & Horvath 2010; Glazebrook 2009). Negatively affecting the adoption of rail from other modes, is the latency at which people experience the environmental benefits of rail (Cools et al. 2009). The problem the US Department of Transport have experienced is their transport policy attempts to solve environmental issues with “policy instruments like technical measures and regulations, not by reconsidering [the] transport policies” to make environmentally friendly modes a more integral part of the community as the case is in Europe (Gudmundsson 2003). An argument put forward by Sánchez-Borràs et al. (2010) asks governments to reconsider putting access charges on new high speed rail infrastructure to recoup some of the cost of installation. The authors indicate in their argument that a charge could reduce the social benefits, which could undermine the intention of the policy that lead to the initial approval of the rail project. 2.6 Relationship between modes
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 27 2.6.1 Definition Studies have been conducted to show that a person’s decision to travel by a certain mode is generally based upon the travel time, the cost, the reliability of the modes and the difference between them. How much importance a particular traveller attaches to each of these factors or others they may have, will determine their choice of travel mode. (Peek & Hagen 2002) A mode choice can firstly be made on whether the trip is short-haul or long haul. O'Neill, Fulton & Brown (1999) found that short-haul travel exhibits competition between modes, unlike the general dominance of a single mode for long-haul travel, namely Air passenger transport. The differences are summarised in that short-haul travel times are shorter, so frequency becomes a factor of mode choice, which is complex because there are often many routes and mode choices. The option of multimodal travel is seen within short-haul, so different modes are analysed simultaneously by looking at interchange and single ticket travel options. Long-haul travel was seen by O'Neill, Fulton & Brown (1999) to be less elastic with respect to its attributes, had fewer routes and mode choice alternatives with an increasing distance and separate markets existed for each mode alternative, which makes multimodal travel difficult. Taylor, Nozick & Meyburg (1997) introduces the idea that, engineers, planners, politicians, employers and local interest groups can influence travel demand for certain modes by way of travel demand management (TDM). This alters the attractiveness of a certain mode to increase the attractiveness of a more favourable mode that the particular group desires. This was found to be done by traffic constraints, public transport improvements, peak-period dispersion, ride sharing, parking controls and land-use control techniques. Lanzendorf (2002) suggests that mode choice can be determined by leisure needs, stating that “travelling is considered to be fun in its own right or a source of relaxation”, as seen in cycling or driving to no apparent destination. They also found a correlation between the ownership of cars and orientation of lifestyles in favour of cars, like frequency of leisure journeys and the mobility required for leisure travel. Ubbels, Rodenburg & Nijkamp (2003) also found the increasing for desire for personal mobility, which would lead to the supremacy of the car over marginalised public transport, without any strong regulatory policies as described above in TDM. Except in the place of High speed (HS) transport where they expect fierce competition between High-speed rail (HSR) and Air passenger transport (APT).
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 28 It is forecasted by Ubbels, Rodenburg & Nijkamp (2003) that in the long run, HSR network will be enlarged, with this and intercontinental air travel being the fastest growing modes for passenger transport. They also see a passenger shift towards HSR with increased congestion in APT for intra-continental travel, as well as a shift from air and water transport for freight, to be increasingly transported by HSR, which is currently experiencing a poor rate of performance. 2.6.2 High-Speed Transport Janic (2003b) defines High-speed transports are those that can transport passengers or goods over a greater area in a shorter amount of time than other systems. For passengers, research has been done to compare Air Passenger Transport (APT), High-Speed Rail (HSR) and Trans-Rapid Maglev (TRM). In most cases unless specified, TRM can be incorporated into data found for HSR. 2.6.3 Competition Givoni & Banister (2007) suggests that the main beneficiaries from competition between HS transport modes should be the customers of these modes, in reduced costs, higher service and greater frequencies. Janic (2003a) has found that passengers of high-speed transport choose their mode by the lowest apparent general cost, which was usually the “out of pocket” costs. This was found to be in addition to factors such as frequency of departure, accessibility costs to the system, travel fares and the level of quality of the service (Janic cited by Janic (2003a)). There were others factors that were found to influence mode choice, being the age group, type of travel and perceived safety when comparing alternatives, meaning that the lowest fare was not always the competing factor. Janic (2003b) found APT was the least preferable alternative when there was a more substantial set of criteria to meet when selecting a mode choice, which included the view of an operator in some regards. This covered distance to the HS terminal, generalised travel cost, in-vehicle comfort and convenience, operating costs, operating revenue, technical productivity, investments, socio-economic rate of return, social welfare, specific energy consumption, safety, air pollution, noise, land-use and congestion. HSR or TRM was found to be the preferred alternative.
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 29 It was found by Givoni & Banister (2007) that policy makers made the promotion of HSR in substitution for APT when there are congestion problems in and around airports and also to reduce the impacts that APT has on the environment. This was found to create heightened competition between the modes, but in a negative way that doesn’t result in the integration that other competition may bring. It could be counterproductive to industries and society. Janic (citing Interaction between high-speed rail and air passenger transport, Janic (2003a), p.261) concluded that modal substitution by competition of HS modes may improve the internal efficiency of each particular system and then by complementary substitution, its emissions or burden on the environment. Givoni & Banister (2007) also found evidence that many airlines probably incur financial losses and lose market share from operating on such routes in competition with HSR. But they continue to offer services at a high frequency because they feed the airlines long haul flights, which bring profit to the airline. This is a case where complimentary or cooperation between APT and HSR would benefit both industries. 2.6.4 Cooperation It is known that economic literature favours intermodal competition in the usual case, as this gives mode choice to the user resulting in lower prices. The following literature argues why cooperation may be more beneficial to operators and users of HS transport. It was found that currently the main rationale for having a rail connection at an airport was for people to begin or end their journey by having rail access to meet their flight Givoni & Banister (2007). It is suggested that railways could have a greater function and could be considered as an integral part of the APT, benefiting both industries. Cantle (2010) considers that the rail network “is not the enemy of the airlines,” and that they could “explore the possibility of cooperation”. Janic (2003a) also looked at the cooperative alternative between HSR and APT. It was found that for cooperation to work, airports should be connected to the HSR network, the timetables of services should facilitate connectivity, and there should be convenient transferring and checking of passengers and their baggage onto the other mode with through ticketing. Obviously this would only be for a viable distance, that t was for people to begin or end their journey by having rail access to meet their flight Givoni & Banister (2007) explains would work in an integrated transport service for trip lengths up to 800km. The integration was found to either offer an alternative mode of transport on the
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 30 same route, or use the one mode to feed the other, resulting in greater destinations and frequencies. Givoni & Banister (2007) goes into further detail in cooperation, suggesting two types, being simple cooperation or full cooperation. Simple, being the provision of rail as an access mode to an airport, resulting is reduced road congestion, air pollution and benefits to the users of the rail service. Full cooperation, was suggested to be rail as an integrated part of the air transport network. The results were found to be a reduction in slots required by an airline, increased revenue for rail operators, and travel timesavings for passengers. It is also mentioned by Givoni & Banister (2007) that full cooperation could lead to reduce competition, which may lead to an increased price for users. Givoni & Banister and Janic (2007; 2003a) say ultimately full cooperation will result is spare capacity on each mode, resulting in service frequency increases. It was found that three ways in which this could be done are: firstly the HSR could partially replace APT by collecting and distributing passenger flows between a hub airport and its spokes. Second, the APT could continue to connect the hub airports, while the HSR completely provide all feeders along the spokes. Thirdly, the opposite could occur, with APT feeding the hubs and having a HSR service between the hubs. 2.6.5 Safety HS transport in the Western regions is extremely safe compared to other modes of transport. It has be investigated by Janic (2003a) that the annual death rate per billion passenger kilometres in APT is 0.00580, where as HSR has a figure of 0.00114. Janic (2003a) concludes that HSR has an advantage over APT, although if data was instead from particular regions, the figures could be different. 2.6.6 Reliability / Punctuality It was considered by Janic (2003a) that delays to HS transport services are caused by congestion. It seems that weather delays or other factors were not reflected upon. Janic (2003a) defines congestion as “whenever demand exceeds the capacity of a service facility”. This then causes delays that results in lost time and a burden to society, including the environmental impacts of additional air pollution, increased need for infrastructure that then leads to requirements for land acquisition. Janic (2003a) suggests this can also impact on safety by increases in the complexity of the transport.
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 31 Janic (citing the AEA Yearbook 2000, Janic (2003a), p.267) cited that it found on average, 20% flights reported delays of greater than 15 minutes. So every fifth flight is delayed by more than 15 minutes. Janic compared this to HSR, who found that delays were always less than 15 minutes. It was then concluded that HSR offers less burden in terms of lost time compared to APT, resulting in reduced flow on affects of congestion as mentioned above. However, Janic (2003a) says this needs to be compared to the overall travel time of HSR and APT as HSR has a lower cruising speed, so still may be slower. 2.6.7 Operating Cost Chester (2010) compared the components of Air transport and High speed rail in a study in California. It was found that the components of these transport options could be divided into the three categories of vehicle components, infrastructure components and fuel components. 2.6.7.1 Vehicle components In terms of operation, Chester (2010) defined vehicle components as the active operation, which includes the propulsion for Rail transport, and for Air transport, the segments of take off, climb out, cruise, approach and landing. It also includes the inactive operation, being idling and auxiliaries (heating, ventilation, air conditioning and lighting) for Rail, and Auxiliary power unit, start-up, taxi out and taxi in for Air. Maintenance costs are also considered, which covers maintenance of the train or aircraft, their engines and the cleaning of their cabins. Insurance costs of the vehicles, covering crew health and benefits and the vehicle liabilities are also an operating cost in this section. 2.6.7.2 Infrastructure components The infrastructure components for Rail were found to be such things as station lighting, escalators, train control, and parking lighting. For air transport these were said to be runway lighting, de-icing fluid production and ground support equipment. Infrastructure maintenance is also considered, being airport maintenance for Air transport, while station and track maintenance is listed for Rail and cleaning costs for both modes can be looked at. Insurance was again considered for each mode, covering infrastructure liability and non-crew health insurance benefits.
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 32 2.6.7.3 Fuel components For Air transport, Chester (2010) defines simply as the operating cost being the refining and distribution of jet fuel for the aircraft. On the other hand, Rail transport, depending on the energy source, could be the generation of electricity, the refining and distribution of diesel, and the costs associated with each. Volatility of the energy source costs could also be considered. 2.6.8 Comparative Environmental Issues It is known that HS transport generates emissions and burdens the environment on a local, regional and global level, in terms of flora, fauna, ecosystems and people’s health. These result from the use of energy and land, producing air pollution, noise and congestion. These burdens have a physical, social and economic impact at the local, regional and global level (2003a). When comparing HSR to APT, Janic (2003a) was able to conclude the environmental impact of each mode in terms of energy consumption in kW hours per passenger kilometres. It was found that HSR consumed between 0.19kW h/ pax km. APT consumed varying amounts with different aircraft types, divided into short-haul, medium-haul and long-haul routes. The energy consumption was 0.380, 0.586 and 1.618 kW h/ pax km respectively. Janic (2003a) found the evidence shows at this point in time, HSR had an advantage over APT. With the progression in technology, these figures may well have changed, and more recent research needs to be conducted to find the preferable mode or the difference between them at present. In terms of noise, it was concluded by Janic (2003a) that HSR would have an advantage at departure and arrival, where noise levels are low, but have a greater impact on surroundings en route, especially in high-density areas, where APT would be at an altitude sufficient to have a marginal impact. They concluded that noise pollution advantage would then depend on surroundings en route and at either end of the route. Ultimately, once in place, rail transport can be regarded as a relatively environmentally friendly operation, competing very well in terms of CO2 emissions (High Speed Rail for Australia: An opportunity for the 21st century 2008; Ubbels, Rodenburg & Nijkamp 2003). However despite this, operating over greater distances presents larger environmental issues because more infrastructure is built, more
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 33 energy is consumed and more polluting emissions are released (Limtanakool, Dijst & Schwanen 2006). Particularly in the case of the proposed Californian High Speed Rail project, Marriott & Matthews (cited in Chester & Horvath (2010), p. 2) outline how “the import of coal- based electricity changes the emissions profile of the mode”. This is a concern for Australia, as our “near-total reliance on coal” for electricity suggests emissions would be higher than the study’s European data indicates (High Speed Rail for Australia: An opportunity for the 21st century 2008). 2.7 Past Studies Post release of the first draft submission of this literature review, the Australian Federal Government commissioned a feasibility study into the economic attractiveness of a High Speed Rail link along the east coast of Australia. Its research and subsequent publishing’s outlined the broad major economic factors associated with planning and constructing the HSR link. The conclusions it summarised were the most appropriate corridors based on forecast patronage demands, net regional economic benefits, environmental impact and the capital cost, adjusted for the risk involved with land acquisition and unplanned expenses. These results are preliminary to the secondary phase of the study which will be to perform a much deeper and thorough analysis of the short-listed corridor options outlined in the primary phase (Transport 2011). Unlike in literature produced by the likes of Van Goeverden (2009) and Siraut & Gay (2009), this literature produced much more quantitative statistical data rather than analysis of why people travel. Similarly with a comparison to Urry (2002) and Mallett & McGuckin (2000), factors involving socio-economic status were not factored in to their patronage demands. An analysis of the capital costs involved with constructing and operating a HSR link was performed, however this excludes operating cost comparisons to other modes of transport so a suitable comparison to the work of Chester (2010) is unable to be performed. Likewise, with the work of Janic (2003a), the environmental aspects analysed are not relatable to the areas covered by the government study so some gaps in the study exist in this regard also. It is clear that the Australian government feasibility study has not concerned its research with the
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 34 subjective reasons of why people would use a High Speed Rail service that previously analysed literature has tried to accomplish. This gives further reason for future research to attempt to fill this gap in the knowledge.
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 35 2.8 Conclusion The literature review began with the question of why people travel. As it progressed, this was refined to the question of why people physically travel when there are other options of virtual travel available with advances in technology. The main reasons for this were found to be the sub categories of: leisure, business and emergency. Leisure was found to be the largest market for reason for travel, mainly due to the increasing leisure time people have, changing lifestyle and the general increasing income that people have available to spend on travel. The social aspect of business travel came to be the main reason that video conferencing has not had a significant effect on business travel. The social and psychological reasons of trust and confidence associated with face-to-face interactions were found to be the reason this market remains in existence. Emergency reasons for travel were attributed to political instability and natural disasters. Research could be conducted on the effects and impacts these have on the travel market, rather than how much this sector makes up as a reason for travel. Unfortunately there seems to be a gap in the research regarding personal emergencies. Whether this is because of the un-forcastable nature of personal emergencies or other sensitivities, we are unsure, but we estimate both to have an effect. In regards to the findings from customer drivers, the importance people placed on certain variables of travel were not always unanimous. Travel cost was at the forefront of preference, followed by others like experience, interchanges, reliability, travel times, comfort, waiting times, car ownership, luggage space, gender and travel distance. There were inconclusive results as to access and egress time, while the surprising outcome from the literature was that frequency was of little importance. Technology plays a role in customer drivers, in step with the customers growing need for convenience, finding that customers only want if they can see the benefits and it simplifies processes like access to transport. Studies on the demographics confirmed the expectation that income levels have a great effect, but the extent that this plays a role was found to be typically relative, as twice the income would yield twice the number of journeys and double the distance travelled. Age was also a prevalent factor, as to their type of trips, while the number of people in a household changed certain travel requirements such as the need for timesavings.
KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 36 Access to transport was found to be determined by the factors of financial availability, physical accessibility, ticketing, interchange, information access, and the matching of services with the destinations that people require. When looking at modes of transport, the comparisons of literature were split into Road transport, Rail/Public transport and Air transport. Road transport, mainly used for its flexibility in terms of destinations and time of use, was later discounted in the review, as it didn’t compare with High Speed Rail (HSR) or Air Passenger Transport (APT) when looking at the long haul market in High Speed Transport. Trans-Rapid Maglev, another form of High Speed Transport was incorporated into HSR for the review of literature. Competition between the modes of High speed transport were found, on a preference level, to relate closely to the preference factors discussed earlier in the literature for all modes of transport. Some further findings about direct competition in this market, found that HSR was the preferred alternative, when there was a more substantial set of criteria. Another matter that held in favour of HSR over APT which was not discussed earlier, was the topic of congestion. Some literature suggested cooperation between modes would be favourable for both the operators and users of High Speed Transport. It was found that HSR stations should be located at airports and connectivity and transfers should be facilitated so the modes could feed each other, giving greater destinations and frequency, reduced slot congestions, and travel time savings for passengers. Literature of the environmental impact of High Speed Transport found that HSR consumed less energy than APT, but the emissions need to be determined in each individual market to the electricity energy source for rail and the subsequent emissions as a result. Noise was also dependant on variables, favouring APT on route while HSR was the preference at departure point and destination. Safety of both High Speed Transport modes were both found to be excellent, although the numbers of fatalities per passenger distance favoured HSR, as did reliability and punctuality of the service which found HSR way ahead of APT, while noting that the travel times may still be shorter overall for APT even on long haul. Operational costs of the two High Speed Transport options were another consideration that would vary with each country, the vehicle used, operator and travel route. The literature defined the operating costs considered when comparing the modes to be the vehicle components, the infrastructure components and the fuel components. The literature outlining the most recent feasibility study came to conclusions over the economic factors involved with the construction of a High Speed Rail network from
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Research project Treloar & Greenhill

  • 1. WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? THE PREFERENCES OF CONSUMERS THAT RELATE TO MODAL CHOICE BETWEEN AIR TRANSPORT AND A POTENTIAL HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X SUBMITTED 30TH NOVEMBER 2011 HES4961A & HES4962A
  • 2. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? ii Table of Contents TABLE  OF  CONTENTS  ...................................................................................................................................  II   TABLE  OF  FIGURES  .......................................................................................................................................  VI   ABSTRACT  .....................................................................................................................................................  VII   CHAPTER  1  –  INTRODUCTION  .................................................................................................................  10   1.1          PURPOSE  ..................................................................................................................................................................  10   1.2          BACKGROUND  .........................................................................................................................................................  11   1.2.1          Current  systems  worldwide  .......................................................................................................................  11   1.2.2          Previous  High  Speed  Rail  studies  ............................................................................................................  11   1.3          SCOPE  OF  THIS  STUDY  ............................................................................................................................................  12   1.4          RESEARCH  DESIGN  AND  METHODS  ......................................................................................................................  13   1.5          ASSUMPTIONS  .........................................................................................................................................................  13   1.6          LIMITATIONS  ...........................................................................................................................................................  13   1.7          DE-­‐LIMITATIONS  ....................................................................................................................................................  14   CHAPTER  2  –  LITERATURE  REVIEW  ......................................................................................................  15   2.1          INTRODUCTION  .......................................................................................................................................................  15   2.2          WHY  PEOPLE  TRAVEL  ...........................................................................................................................................  16   2.2.1          Leisure  ................................................................................................................................................................  17   2.2.2          Business  .............................................................................................................................................................  18   2.2.3          Emergency  ........................................................................................................................................................  19   2.3          CUSTOMER  DRIVERS  ..............................................................................................................................................  19   2.3.1          Preference  .........................................................................................................................................................  19   2.3.2          Technology  .......................................................................................................................................................  20   2.3.3          Demographics  .................................................................................................................................................  21   2.3.4          Access  to  Transport  ......................................................................................................................................  21   2.3.5          Price,  Service  &  Comfort  .............................................................................................................................  22   Price  ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................  23   Service  and  Comfort  ..................................................................................................................................................................................  23   2.4          MODES  OF  TRANSPORT  .........................................................................................................................................  24   2.4.1          Road  Transport  ..............................................................................................................................................  24   2.4.2          Rail  and  Public  transport  ...........................................................................................................................  25   2.4.3          Air  Transport  ...................................................................................................................................................  25   2.5          ENVIRONMENTAL  IMPACT  OF  MODES  .................................................................................................................  25   2.5.1          Infrastructure  .................................................................................................................................................  26   2.6          RELATIONSHIP  BETWEEN  MODES  .......................................................................................................................  26   2.6.1          Definition  ...........................................................................................................................................................  27  
  • 3. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? iii 2.6.2          High-­‐Speed  Transport  .................................................................................................................................  28   2.6.3          Competition  ......................................................................................................................................................  28   2.6.4          Cooperation  ......................................................................................................................................................  29   2.6.5          Safety  ..................................................................................................................................................................  30   2.6.6          Reliability  /  Punctuality  .............................................................................................................................  30   2.6.7          Operating  Cost  ................................................................................................................................................  31   2.6.7.1          Vehicle  components  ...............................................................................................................................................................  31   2.6.7.2          Infrastructure  components  .................................................................................................................................................  31   2.6.7.3          Fuel  components  ......................................................................................................................................................................  32   2.6.8          Comparative  Environmental  Issues  .......................................................................................................  32   2.7          PAST  STUDIES  .........................................................................................................................................................  33   2.8          CONCLUSION  ...........................................................................................................................................................  35   2.9          ELEMENTS  MISSING  FROM  LITERATURE  ............................................................................................................  37   2.10          RESEARCH  QUESTION  .........................................................................................................................................  38   CHAPTER  3  –  RESEARCH  DESIGN  AND  METHODS  .............................................................................  39   3.1          INTRO  .......................................................................................................................................................................  39   3.2          RESEARCH  DESIGN  .................................................................................................................................................  39   Rationale  of  data  collection  survey  questions  ..................................................................................................  39   3.3          METHODS  ................................................................................................................................................................  41   Q  Methodology  ...............................................................................................................................................................  41   3.4          DATA  COLLECTION  .................................................................................................................................................  43   3.5          ANALYSIS  .................................................................................................................................................................  43   CHAPTER  4  –  FINDINGS  AND  ANALYSIS  ...............................................................................................  44   4.1          AVERAGE  TRAVEL  FREQUENCY  ............................................................................................................................  44   4.2          PRICE  RELATIVE  TO  AN  AIRFARE  .........................................................................................................................  46   4.3          PUBLIC  TRANSPORT  TICKET  CONNECTION  ........................................................................................................  48   4.4          MINIMUM  FREQUENCY  OF  A  HIGH  SPEED  RAIL  ................................................................................................  50   4.5          DESTINATIONS  EN-­‐ROUTE  ....................................................................................................................................  51   4.6          CONSUMERS  AVERAGE  TRAVEL  TIME  ..................................................................................................................  53   4.7          MAXIMUM  DURATION  OF  A  HIGH  SPEED  RAIL  ..................................................................................................  54   4.8          SECURITY  SCREENING  ...........................................................................................................................................  56   4.9          SERVICE  CLASSES  ...................................................................................................................................................  58   4.10          MINIMUM  REQUIRED  BAGGAGE  LIMIT  ............................................................................................................  59   4.11          ENVIRONMENTAL  IMPACT  AFFECTING  MODAL  CHOICE  ..............................................................................  60   4.12          IMPORTANCE  TO  PASSENGERS  OF  NO  DELAYS  ..............................................................................................  62   4.13          AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  PRICE  RELATIVE  TO  AIRFARE  .............................................................................  64   4.14          AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  TRANSPORT  CONNECTION  ..................................................................................  65  
  • 4. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? iv 4.15          AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  HSR  DEPARTURE  FREQUENCY  ...........................................................................  66   4.16          AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  DESTINATIONS  EN-­‐ROUTE  ..................................................................................  68   4.17          AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  AVERAGE  TRAVEL  TIME  .......................................................................................  70   4.18          AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  BAGGAGE  ALLOWANCE  ........................................................................................  71   4.19          RELATIVE  PRICE  VS.  HSR  DEPARTURE  FREQUENCY  .....................................................................................  72   4.20          MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  DESTINATIONS  EN-­‐ROUTE  .........................................................................  73   4.21          MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  DIFFERENT  CLASSES  ...................................................................................  74   4.22          MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  DELAY  IMPORTANCE  ...................................................................................  75   4.23          RELATIVE  PRICE  VS.  MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  ...........................................................................................  77   4.24          MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  HSR  DEPARTURE  FREQUENCY  ..................................................................  79   4.25          MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  AVERAGE  TRAVEL  TIME  ..............................................................................  81   4.26          MEAN  BAGGAGE  ALLOWANCE  VS.  RELATIVE  PRICE  ......................................................................................  83   CHAPTER  5  –  CONCLUSION  AND  RECOMMENDATIONS  ...................................................................  84   5.1          INTRODUCTION  .......................................................................................................................................................  84   5.2          THE  RESULTS  ..........................................................................................................................................................  84   Average  current  frequency  between  Melbourne  and  Sydney  .................................................................................................  84   Average  current  Melbourne  –  Sydney  travel  time  .......................................................................................................................  85   Maximum  duration  of  the  HSR  journey  ............................................................................................................................................  85   Price  of  HSR  ticket  relative  to  an  airfare  ..........................................................................................................................................  85   Connecting  public  transport  to  the  HSR  ...........................................................................................................................................  86   Frequency  of  HSR  departures  ...............................................................................................................................................................  86   Destinations  en-­‐route  between  Melbourne  and  Sydney  ...........................................................................................................  86   Summary  ........................................................................................................................................................................................................  87   APPENDICES  ..................................................................................................................................................  88   SURVEY  QUESTIONS  ..........................................................................................................................................................  88   ETHICS  COMMITTEE  SUBMISSION  ..................................................................................................................................  90   SURVEY  RESULTS  ...........................................................................................................................................................  109   Average  Frequency  of  Travel  Melbourne-­‐Sydney  ........................................................................................  109   HSR  Ticket  Price  Relative  to  an  Airfare  ...........................................................................................................  109   Ticket  Connection  Option  .......................................................................................................................................  109   HSR  Departure  Frequency  .....................................................................................................................................  110   Number  of  Allowed  En-­‐route  Destinations  .....................................................................................................  110   Current  Average  Travel  Time  Mel-­‐Syd  .............................................................................................................  110   Maximum  Duration  of  HSR  Trip  ..........................................................................................................................  111   Security  Screening  Measures  Implemented  ....................................................................................................  111   Option  for  Different  Class  Tickets  .......................................................................................................................  111   Minimum  Free  Baggage  Allowance  ...................................................................................................................  112   Environmental  Concern  Impacting  ....................................................................................................................  112  
  • 5. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? v Choice  between  Air  and  HSR  .................................................................................................................................  112   Importance  of  No  Delay  ..........................................................................................................................................  112   REFERENCES  ...............................................................................................................................................  113    
  • 6. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? vi Table of figures FIGURE  4.  1  –  AVERAGE  TRAVEL  FREQUENCY  .......................................................................................................................................  44   FIGURE  4.  2  –  PRICE  RELATIVE  TO  AN  AIRFARE  ....................................................................................................................................  46   FIGURE  4.  3  –  PUBLIC  TRANSPORT  TICKET  CONNECTION  ....................................................................................................................  48   FIGURE  4.  4  –  MINIMUM  FREQUENCY  OF  A  HIGH  SPEED  RAIL  ...........................................................................................................  50   FIGURE  4.  5  –  DESTINATIONS  EN-­‐ROUTE  ...............................................................................................................................................  51   FIGURE  4.  6  –  CONSUMERS  AVERAGE  TRAVEL  TIME  .............................................................................................................................  53   FIGURE  4.  7  –  MAXIMUM  DURATION  OF  A  HIGH  SPEED  RAIL  .............................................................................................................  54   FIGURE  4.  8  –  SECURITY  SCREENING  ......................................................................................................................................................  56   FIGURE  4.  9  –  SERVICE  CLASSES  ..............................................................................................................................................................  58   FIGURE  4.  10  –  MINIMUM  REQUIRED  BAGGAGE  LIMIT  ........................................................................................................................  59   FIGURE  4.  11  –  ENVIRONMENTAL  IMPACT  AFFECTING  MODAL  CHOICE  ............................................................................................  60   FIGURE  4.  12  –  IMPORTANCE  TO  PASSENGERS  OF  NO  DELAYS  ...........................................................................................................  62   FIGURE  4.  13  –  AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  PRICE  RELATIVE  TO  AIRFARE  .........................................................................................  64   FIGURE  4.  14  –  AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  TRANSPORT  CONNECTION  ..............................................................................................  65   FIGURE  4.  15  –  AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  HSR  DEPARTURE  FREQUENCY  .......................................................................................  66   FIGURE  4.  16  –  AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  DESTINATIONS  EN-­‐ROUTE  ..............................................................................................  68   FIGURE  4.  17  –  AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  AVERAGE  TRAVEL  TIME  ..................................................................................................  70   FIGURE  4.  18  –  AVERAGE  FREQUENCY  VS.  BAGGAGE  ALLOWANCE  ....................................................................................................  71   FIGURE  4.  19  –  RELATIVE  PRICE  VS.  HSR  DEPARTURE  FREQUENCY  .................................................................................................  72   FIGURE  4.  20  –  MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  DESTINATIONS  EN-­‐ROUTE  .....................................................................................  73   FIGURE  4.  21  –  MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  DIFFERENT  CLASSES  ...............................................................................................  74   FIGURE  4.  22  –  MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  DELAY  IMPORTANCE  ..............................................................................................  75   FIGURE  4.  23  –  RELATIVE  PRICE  VS.  MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  ......................................................................................................  77   FIGURE  4.  24  –  MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  HSR  DEPARTURE  FREQUENCY  ..............................................................................  79   FIGURE  4.  25  –  MAXIMUM  HSR  DURATION  VS.  AVERAGE  TRAVEL  TIME  .........................................................................................  81   FIGURE  4.  26  –  MEAN  BAGGAGE  ALLOWANCE  VS.  RELATIVE  PRICE  ..................................................................................................  83  
  • 7. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? vii Abstract The purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which the consumer’s travel preferences and requirements determine the modal choice selected when travelling between Melbourne and Sydney. The particular modes that were examined are air travel, against the possibility of having a High-speed rail link between the two cities in the future. Past studies have looked at the feasibility of a High-speed rail link, with the focus on the affordability of the project and the cost surrounding the building and operation of the system. This study on the other hand, will focus on the standards that a High-speed rail link would need to meet, before it became competitive with air travel and attractive to the general public, to understand the type of system that needs to be built before conducting any cost measures. Customer drivers were at the forefront of this study. Other studies had found that the cost of travel was most important to consumers, in conjunction with the experience, interchanges required, reliability of the service, travel times and waiting times, car ownership, comfort, luggage space, gender and the total travel distance. These factors would form the basis to which the primary research of this study would surround. The variables were measured by conducting interviews with the general public, using Q-methodology, to provide a sliding scale of preferences and requirements to which the respondent could best match their answer to each topic. The subject matter for each question was determined from the factors found to be important to travellers by other studies. The results from the questions determined the extent to which the factors weighed in with the consumer and if they related to the answers they gave for other questions. These results were analysed and compared with the use of graphs to represent the frequency of responses for individual questions, and then explore the reasons behind the results and the implications for the study. The results indicated that price was a significant factor in changing modes from air travel to High-speed rail, but was also dependent on the frequency of travel of the consumer and the departure frequency of the High-speed rail. The duration of the journey was also a factor, with most respondents not accepting a longer travel time than their current voyage. An overwhelming majority of those interviewed wanted public transport connections included in their High-speed rail ticket, which also depended on the frequency of travel. The frequency of departures of a High-speed rail in its own right was a factor, with the determination that they needed to be more often in peak periods of the day.
  • 8. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? viii The destinations en-route for a High-speed rail to serve became a factor, which was also linked to the frequency of travel, with more frequent travellers preferring fewer stops along the journey. The results are important for the planning of a potential High-speed rail link between Melbourne and Sydney or further along the east coast of Australia. If the results of the surveyed portioned of the population were scaled up to represent the total populations of cities along the east coast, ridership forecasts could be made depending on how the service requirements may be met in the planning of a future High-speed rail link. This is not only important for infrastructure planners, but town planners along possible routes, land owners, prospective operators of a High-speed rail and the airlines to which it may be competing with.
  • 9. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? ix Acknowledgements The researchers would like to acknowledge the makers of SOFA Statistics, who were the providers of the user-friendly statistics and reporting program. It is free software, with an emphasis on ease of use, beautiful output and learn-as-you-go. The SOFA Statistics program was used to interpret the data from a spreadsheet, to create graphs, in particular the correlation graphs, which were an integral part of the results and recommendations from this research. The SOFA Statistics program can be found at www.sofastatistics.com/
  • 10. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 10 CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION The topic of High Speed Rail is one that stirs many differing opinions. Some advocate that the infrastructure should have been implemented in Australia years ago 1.1 Purpose The study will aim to base research around the topic of how a high-speed rail network would compete with air travel, with questions surrounding the service level of air travel and on what factors a high speed rail could compete. Past studies in Australia have looked at the feasibility of a high-speed rail network by looking at the affordability of the project, with the focus on attracting investors to build and or operate the system, by investigating the cost of the project against the return it may bring. These studies have covered areas such as land capture, possible routes that the network could take to join the cities, any tunnelling or bridges to be built along the way, the types of trains and carriages that would be suitable, the cost of operation and the scope of the project in terms of what area of the country will be served. This research, to be conducted in a much simpler and cost effective way, will focus on the preferences of the public, to investigate the requirements they have in terms of the performance and service level of a high-speed train in its own right and in competition to air travel. The belief of this concept is that it will form the basis of the details when considering the factors that other studies have already gone through. These appear to be premature, without an understanding of such questions as how fast a train would need to be, what towns should be served and how much tickets should cost. Without an understanding of these factors and many more, such “feasibility” studies would be less effective, than those that have a background understanding of the preferences and requirements of the public who would be using a high-speed rail if it existed.
  • 11. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 11 1.2 Background 1.2.1 Current systems worldwide High Speed Rail infrastructure has been prevalent in many countries around the world for many years. It is well known that France’s TGV and Japan’s Shinkansen networks profitably operate daily services for hundreds of thousands of people. People taking the Shinkansen, for example, quite often live in very rural areas great distances (some 200-300km) away of the cities yet the speed and efficiency of the trains mean they can spend much less time travelling than a lot of Australians do on the city metro systems. This gives a strong case for High Speed Rail in Australia as regional areas and cities such as Geelong (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Bendigo (Vic), Parramatta (NSW), could very well see the same commute times as those rural Japanese areas. Likewise in France, it is a common argument to hear whether it is faster to fly or catch train from Paris to London. The reliability and punctuality of service is much easier to manage with a rail service that gives reason to believe that catching a train can often be quicker than an hour-long flight. Also, due to the minimal land requirements compared to an airport, trains can travel directly into the central city that reduces transfer time significantly. It is these benefits that advocates for the High Speed Rail use to support the introduction of the infrastructure into Australia. By having a train and an airline service the same group of travelers, a large amount of competition is created which is a large benefit to the public. High Speed Rail in particular places a large amount of competitive pressure on the respective air sectors because of the ability for a High Speed Rail to transport people directly to and from the city centres. The effect that this type of increased competition has on airlines is very dramatic; JAL is one carrier that debatably suffered dearly from competition from High Speed Rail. 1.2.2 Previous High Speed Rail studies A High Speed Rail link between Melbourne and Sydney has been considered many times previously. The first proposal for building any High Speed Rail infrastructure in Australia dates back into the 1980s. These plans were rejected after claims of under budgeting and the project was deemed not economical. Despite multiple feasibility studies in the decades following, 1986, 1989, 1993, 2000 and 2007, each subsequent proposal into building the infrastructure so far has been met with similar dismissal based on economic reasons. Each proposal followed similar details in
  • 12. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 12 terms of main corridors and top speeds, and strongly based the principles of their proposal on currently operational systems such as the TGV in France. In 2009, the group that piloted the 2007 study, the Canberra Business Council, proposed a slightly different benefit in its study to the generic economic development benefits that been proposed in the past. It indicated that a High Speed Rail link between Melbourne and Sydney to can act as very fast link between Canberra and Sydney, allowing Canberra airport to act as a secondary to Sydney’s congested Kingsford Smith International airport. Together with air travel data highlighting Melbourne-Sydney as the fourth busiest route in the world, support for the High Speed Rail infrastructure is growing and transport organisations and government departments are again conducting feasibility studies. The most recent study, in a preliminary Phase 1 stage as this project has started, is another government commissioned study aimed at using 2011 data in analysis for economic recommendations. The data is due to be available for private viewing in July of 2011 and publicly released in August 2011. The expectation is that this study will be very similar in scope to the previous releases, with focuses on raw population statistics to determine demand, growth rates, congestion and best station locations. 1.3 Scope of this study All of these studies appear to have a common quantitative approach when making recommendations. These quantitative approaches deal predominantly with national statistics, rather than the desires of the public. The common way of product and service design in general is to ask what society wants to gain from the product or service and design it based on these recommendations. If a product or service does not satisfy a need for a consumer, the provider will find it hard to sell to people. This is common for all items. It is the belief of the researchers that this concept certainly extends to a potential High Speed Rail network in Australia. The service must provide a benefit that people want for the appropriate price. It is also seen that a High Speed Rail link between Melbourne and Sydney would impact on the patronage of air travel. This type of study can be done by interviewing the general public, unlike other studies into the feasibility of a high-speed rail network, which may look at the costs surrounding infrastructure building and operation. Questions will be modelled around variables of service, such as speed, price and frequency, as well and secondary factors such as baggage limits and classes of service.
  • 13. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 13 The study will be conducted over a few days in Melbourne’s springtime, with the aim to report on 150 respondents and their opinions or viewpoints across the variables found to be significant within the literature review. The interview will be conducted one on one with the respondent, taking approximately 3 minutes to answer multiple choice questions, with the option of adding any comments or asking questions at the end of the survey. 1.4 Research design and methods The research will be conducted to investigate the preferences of the public in regard to performance measures and service levels of high-speed travel. The variables that are to be measured are a combination of factors that were found to be important following the literature review. These variables will be measured by the Q- methodology method, giving a sliding scale of preference for the respondent to answer to. Following the primary data collection, results will be tabulated and graphs created to view the findings. Findings will be looked at on an individual basis then compared with against other relevant factors to uncover any correlations between answers for individual questions. 1.5 Assumptions Assumptions will be made in accordance with the small sample that has been taken in the data set. It is assumed that the 155 respondents give an accurate representation of the general public and their views expressed in the data. It is also assumed that the answers available to the respondent are those that cover all preferences and viewpoints on a topic. It is further assumed that the time, date and location of the conduction of interviews would not change the data for any other time, date and location. It is assumed that the answers to the questions given were answered truthfully and give an accurate representation of the views or attitudes of the respondent. 1.6 Limitations Limitations of the study were based around locations for the conduct of research and in tern the demographic of those to be interviewed. The primary idea was for the research to be conducted in the departure lounge of the Sydney and Melbourne domestic airports for flights departing between those cities. The reason for this being
  • 14. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 14 to investigate the competition that a high-speed rail network would bring to the busy city pair, by uncovering the preferences and requirements of those who often travel in this sector. Failing to receive permission from either airport to conduct research within the departure lounges or anywhere else in the airport, it was left to the second option of finding respondents from the general public. The scope of the study then changed in term of demographics, which can be expected to alter the results of the findings. A positive of this, is that the results would be less biased to those who travel frequently between the cities, and may uncover the potential for a new market of traveller who would use a high-speed train, as opposed to what market share may be taken from the current air travel numbers. 1.7 De-limitations Limits of the study, which were of the researchers doing, were based around the scope of the study being limited to the Melbourne to Sydney sector. It was chosen to research this single sector for simplification purposes and with the belief that the preferences that were being researched would hold minimal variation across other cities within Australia. With Melbourne to Sydney and vice versa being one of the busiest city pairs in the world for air travel, the study would be expected to find many frequent travellers within the set of respondents to the survey. This would in tern be expected to shed light on the preferences of travellers on this sector and how a high-speed rail link would compete with the air travel currently in place, along with the attraction it may bring to the less frequent traveller.
  • 15. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 15 CHAPTER 2 – LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction High Speed Rail (HSR) projects have been a reality for decades now. As many countries have already invested heavily in the specialised infrastructure and technology, namely France, Japan and Korea, there is much literature on the impact these projects have had on those country’s economy, environment and social patterns. Likewise, there have been several economic feasibility studies performed over this time for a HSR link between Melbourne and Sydney, all of which have failed to attract contractual agreements. However, the broad focus of this literature review is to determine how current implementations of HSR around the world operate their services in terms of service levels, schedules, cost management and public relations and what social factors influence the success of a HSR system. This is to then be used to identify which aspects are the most beneficial for new High Speed Rail projects to adopt in order to be successful in a brand new market such as Melbourne-Sydney. Before beginning the search for literature, this topic was divided into the concise sections seen in the table of contents. It is important to determine what reasons people use for travel, as such, the initial focus is to define travel within the context of people’s underlying compulsive need to travel. To aid the explanation, some broad travel categories can be looked in to: Leisure, Business and Emergency. Within this, it is important to find out how commonly these topics were used to define individual trips to determine how important these reasons were to understand why people travel. The next topic to discuss expands on the previous by discussing what drives consumers to choose particular modes and whether their circumstances can justify their travel behaviour. The focus is on customer preference and their attraction to certain variables within the services offered. Alongside this, it is also intended to explore how demographics or social status can be an influence to these choices. Following on from this, a discussion of what the literature indicates is the reasons for choosing a particular mode is required. It will build on the previous discussion by contextualising it more towards what advantages the three main publically available modes (Road, Rail/Public Transport and Air) offer to people.
  • 16. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 16 So far, the focus has been on what benefits the consumer requires and perceives to receive from the respective services. An analysis of what the literature says about a high-speed transport service being a competitor to conventional modes also needs to be undertaken. This area will look at the more reportable and tangible economic advantages/disadvantages of High Speed Rail implementation compared to other modes. It can be expected that competition as well as cooperation of the modes will be discussed as well as the safety issues, mode reliability and operation costs. Finally, as society continues to focus more heavily on the impact of society on the planet, the environmental issues specifically associated with building and operating a HSR system will be looked at. 2.2 Why People Travel The question that seems quite straightforward to answer can be explored in detail as Urry (2002) has done, focusing on the question of why people physically travel when there are other alternatives to the traveller. He lists these as ‘imaginative’ and ‘virtual’ travel and are a substitute to the “physical movement of objects”. Imaginative travel being the images of people and places from those not of our own projected in media such as television, or audio broadcasted on radio. Urry (2002) also defines virtual travel being the real time transmission of these media to other places through communication channels such as telephone and Internet. Urry (2002) explains that despite the “risks, uncertainties and frustrations of corporeal movement”, a “sense of belonging with various others is sensed and sustained” only with physical travel. Kaplan (cited in Urry (2002), p.257) is of the same opinion in regards to physical travel, concurring that it is “unavoidable, indisputable, and always necessary for family, love and friendship as well as work” and claims, “it ought to be an essential part of one’s life and is a fundamental human right.” He also says the “widespread growth of longer-range mobility especially by air, as conferences, holidays, family connections, diasporic relations and work are increasingly internationalised”. Szerszynski (cited in Urry (2002), p.261) gives some other examples of times where physical travel cannot be substituted as “festivals, conferences, holidays, camps, seminars and sites of protest”, while Lewis (cited in Urry (2002), p.261) simply says that “many places need to be seen for oneself to be experienced directly”.
  • 17. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 17 Prato and Trivero (cited in Urry (2002), p.257) add another reason for travel is that it may be a “key marker of status”, while Hooks (cited in Urry (2002), p. 258) rationalises that “home is no longer one place, it is locations”. Frisby and Featherstone (cited in Urry (2002), p.259) say that the physical proximity between two people is essential, “since looking at one another is what effects the connections and interactions of individuals”. Urry explains that people may desire, feel obliged, or find it appropriate to have moments of physical proximity to particular people, places or events. He states “virtual and imaginative travel will not simply substitute for corporeal travel since intermittent co-presence appears obligatory for sustaining much social life”. Boden and Molotch (cited in Urry (2002), p. 259) agree that “Co-present interaction is fundamental to social intercourse; virtual travel will not significantly replace physical travel”. When looking at the alternatives to physical travel, Boden and Molotch (cited in Urry (2002), p. 260) say that “letters, memos, faxes and email are less effective at establishing long-term trust relations especially over emotional, personal or financial domains of activity”. Urry is of the same opinion in that he says the “pleasures of conversation are so profound that virtual travel will not erode people’s compulsion to physical proximity”. Putnam (cited in Urry (2002), p.268) concurs, “frequent contact on the Internet is a complement to frequent face-to-face contact, not a substitute for it”. It can be seen that why and whether people travel, if and why they would or could change to a virtual or imaginative form of travel, depends greatly on social factors, technologies, status, income, proximity to travel means and the closeness or farness of the destination (Urry 2002). 2.2.1 Leisure Leisure makes up a large part of the transport market - 74% of U.S. domestic person traffic according to the U.S. Travel Association (Miller & Washington 2010) - and can be brought on by many mutually independent factors. There has been substantial change in the constraints of normal society, particularly in the employment sector (Schlich et al. 2004). According to Garhammer (cited in Schlich et al. (2004), p.220), between 1965 and 1995 Germany’s average working week decreased from 48.3 to 38.1 hours, and in the U.S.A. over the same period it decreased from 52.5 to 42 hours. This decrease in working hours can be expected to correlate with an increase in leisure time, where it is expected that leisure travel would occur. Likewise, leave
  • 18. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 18 entitlements have increased over the same period and the retirement age has decreased (Garhammer cited in Schlich et al. (2004)) allowing for more frequent and extended periods of leisure time. Combine these factors with an increase in the average income and car ownership and usage, leisure activities are undertaken much easier. In a more philosophical focus, Lazendorf (2002) explores how a person’s leisure travel behaviour is fundamentally linked to their lifestyle. The traveller’s intent may be to reach a destination where another activity may take place or to travel simply for platonic reasons, either way it is “an everyday activity and, as such,… is part of an individual’s lifestyle symbolism” (Lanzendorf 2002). Kaplan (cited in Urry (2002), p.257) further amplifies the idea that lifestyle relates to leisure travel by stating that the culture she has grown up with has made her believe that “US citizens [could] travel anywhere they pleased” . The assumption here is that one would not travel just ‘anywhere’ if they had some prerogative external to their psyche; it would relate to a particular purpose. 2.2.2 Business The premise for business travel is that it facilitates the necessary “embodied, face-to- face encounter[s]” which are needed to complete many business elements by bringing together “spatially distributed individuals” (Beaverstock et al. 2009). These encounters were largely associated with negotiations, marketing and sales. Since these communications were typically characterised by uncertainty and ambiguity, there is a need to establish trust and confidence between the parties (Lian & Denstadli 2004). The market for business travel reflects this mentality, making up 56% of the Norwegian domestic air market and 70-80% of the passenger revenue in Norway and the US (Denstadli 2009; Lian & Denstadli 2004). This strong market has seen the propagation of consultancy firms, reports, websites and magazines such as Carlson Wagonlit Travel, Barclaycard Business Traveller Survey, BusinessTraveller.com and TravelPlus, respectively (Beaverstock et al. 2009). The introduction of video conference (VC) technology did not seem to have a significant effect on business travel levels; 25% of respondents to a survey said VC had replaced parts of their travel activity (Lian & Denstadli 2004). While there is no mention of the relative Australian statistics in this document, due to the globalised function of business travel and travel services it can be assumed that in principle this data can be related to the Australian market also. However, as this
  • 19. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 19 data is unfortunately quite old in terms of market research it can only be applied as a general insight to the industry. 2.2.3 Emergency The types of causes behind travelling for emergency reasons can usually only be attributed to some sort of dangerous situation arising. Skran & Daughtry (2007) discuss the issues that create refugees by quoting J. H. Simpson, “the cause of every refugee movement is tyranny of one kind or another”. They go further to describe political situations such as the Nazi regime, the Cold War and Vietnam War as “the main reason for a mass exodus”. Akin to political motivations, natural disaster has an effect on the travel of individuals from an area as discussed by Gutmann & Field (2010). They describe the situation that arose from Hurricane Katrina in 2005 whereby 80% of New Orleans residents were reportedly evacuated. These movements also span many millennia into the past with the Israelites’ exodus from Egypt in 1628 BCE with the Minoan eruption (Collins 2009). From these references we can see multiple studies have been made to discuss the effect of emergency situations on people’s requirement to travel. It is shown that political instability and natural disasters are the most prevalent of these issues. However, the obvious aspect that seems to be omitted when discussing the research on this topic is how personal emergencies contribute to the numbers. This lends to the belief that either it is a relatively insignificant factor when analysing travel trends and/or no research has been undertaken in this area. This is assumed to be because of the sporadic nature of this type of trip and/or, due to possible sensitivities of the concept, could be masked as ‘leisure’. 2.3 Customer Drivers 2.3.1 Preference There is much literature on the features of transport that users require, or preference of one attribute over other factors, which seems to vary according to the circumstance the user may find themselves in. Uchida et al. (2007) found that a preference to chose one mode of travel over another, was to do with actual travel times, comfort of the transit system, expected waiting times and the cost of the transport.
  • 20. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 20 A number of other studies (Mandel, Gonzales-Savignat and Roman cited in Van Goeverden (2009), p.22-23) found the most important factors were travel time and cost, all agreeing that frequency was of little importance. Van Goeverden (2009) explained the insignificance of frequency was due to the planning that goes into medium or long distance trips. It was found that it is not unreasonable to have low frequencies for these travels, only requiring high frequency services for short, unplanned trips. There was a disagreement with Roman (cited in Van Goeverden (2009), p23) and Siraut & Gay (2009) finding access / egress time was of importance, while Gonzales- Savignat (cited in Van Goeverden (2009), p.23) found otherwise. It was detailed by Glazebrook (2009) that the out of pocket costs were what determined travel choice, and that if users paid the total costs at the time of a trip, travel choices would be different. Van Goeverden (2009) elaborated by finding that other factors such as car ownership, number of destinations on the journey, luggage space, gender, distance and number of interchanges played a part in preferences. Siraut & Gay (2009) found further factors, being the journey experience, number of interchanges and the regularity or reliability of the service. A study into older population ridership found their requirements to be more modes choices, value for money, high quality service, greater degree of service articulation and services tailored to specific needs or specific trips. (Burkhardt 2003) 2.3.2 Technology Adoption of new technology is expected to enable significant growth in the transport sector when combined with high economic growth rates (Ubbels, Rodenburg & Nijkamp 2003). People in general have an attraction to technology (Burke 2002). The proliferation of Automatic Teller Machines resulted from customer’s increasing need for convenience, same with the wide-spread use of the UPC barcode scanners in retail stores (Burke 2002) are two such examples. It’s not a one-way affair either; successful marketing of products creates customer desire. High-profile technology like new aircraft create significant hype to which people react very strongly to as Westnage (2010) discovers in a discussion with Airbus’ Chief of Sales John Leahy. Computer access at home is increasing as post-2001 Census data already showed a 50% penetration rate for one or more home computers in the US (Burke 2002). However, Burke also says that even with this technology at hand, customers only want it if it is to simplify processes and provide immediate tangible benefits. As
  • 21. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 21 people become more familiar with technology and it becomes exposed to younger generations, expectations will change (Burke 2002). 2.3.3 Demographics Demographics is defined by Urry (2002), in the transport sense, as the analysis of “why people travel, and whether they should travel in the way they currently do, is to interrogate a complex set of social practices, social practices that involve old and emerging technologies that reconstruct notions of proximity and distance, closeness and farness, stasis and movement, the body and the other”. Many studies have found that higher income levels result in greater number of journeys and distance travelled (Gender and class in urban transport: the cases of Xian and Hanoi 2010; Mallett & McGuckin 2000; Ubbels, Rodenburg & Nijkamp 2003). It was detailed by Mallett & McGuckin (2000) that people in the highest income group take twice as many trips and travel twice as far as those in the lower income group. Siraut & Gay (2009) agreed, finding that those in the highest income quintile travel nearly three times the distance as those in the lowest quintile of income groups. (Gender and class in urban transport: the cases of Xian and Hanoi 2010) also added that income related to the type of transport, with a greater use of motorised transport with an increasing income. This was reiterated by Siraut & Gay (2009) who found that an increasing income led to more car and train trips, with less bus or walking trips. Outwater et al. (2003) found that age was a factor, with younger respondents having a greater need for time saving than older counterparts. In addition, Wang, Khattak & Fan (2009) discovering that younger people were more likely to use travel information, and Mallett & McGuckin (2000) stating that the young and old make more local trips, with middle-age making more frequent long-distance trips. As the number of people in a household and the number of children increased, Outwater et al. (2003) found that there was a greater need for time-savings. 2.3.4 Access to Transport Urry (2002) explains people will seek to improve their social capital with access to greater mobility, for a lack of mobility is a real problem in social groups. Shove (cited in Siraut & Gay (2009), p.) says that “the ability and willingness to travel is key to fully participating in the economic, social and cultural life of modern society”.
  • 22. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 22 It is said that as individuals either desire to, or take on more roles in their lives, society becomes more travel demanding. There were two issues to be discovered from this. Firstly, either the unwillingness, or simply the inability to access the transport system can be an access problem. The second being users of the transport system, with an unwillingness, or inability to use the services to their full potential. The result of either of these issues, was found to be lower opportunities in terms of work, training or services in society. Siraut & Gay (2009) say the reasons for limited access can be grouped in four factors, being financial, physical, organisational and temporal. Financial relates to the lack of funds to access the transport. Physical is the ability to arrive at the transport and enter the system. Organisational relates to the ticketing, information, interchange of the services and where they go. And temporal is the matching of services running to where people want to go at the appropriate time. Research into travel information and how this impacted on access was investigated by Wang, Khattak & Fan (2009). They found people would acquire travel information if they had longer travel times, a higher household income, were a younger person, and lived in a household with more vehicles. They were more likely to change a travel decision once accessing the information, depending on their age, the source, the frequency and the time of residence in the area. The more often someone accessed travel information, the more likely they were to change their plans. The greatest influence came from the internet, although it was found television was accessed more often. Natvig & Westerheim (2007) suggest the time at which information is sought has an effect on access or changes to modes. They say static information like timetable affect pre-trip planning where as dynamic information like traffic information may induce en-route changes to access other modes or routes. 2.3.5 Price, Service & Comfort Literature suggests that people in general are very sensitive to upfront costs, advertised services and relative comfort of transport modes (Peek & Hagen 2002). These sensitivities seem to be independent of particular modes (Jackson & Jucker 1982) and as such give us the ability to perform an unbiased review. This section discusses these three variables that influence the choice of modes.
  • 23. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 23 Price Van Goeverden (2009) places strong emphasis on the influence of price in traveller’s choice in transport mode. The author cites Gonzales-Savignat and Ettema et al., who place cost as the second most important variable in mode choice, and the study of Roman et al. (cited in van Goeverden 2009) placed price as the primary influencing variable. When aligning transport user’s reactions to price head-to-head, Cools et al. (2009) discovers that “most people are convinced that costs are lower for public transport than for car, [which indicates] that low bus fares are important to stimulate people to use public transport”. In the work of Glazebrook (2009), of the three factors influencing travel choice being discussed in this section, cost appears to have the most elastic effect on demand. Costs are divided into “out-of-pocket” and “external” costs. It is discussed that “external” costs (i.e. insurance, registration, servicing, parking for a car etc.) are substantially latent - not experienced at the time of the trip as “out-of-pocket” costs are (i.e. toll roads, petrol). Affecting car users most significantly, these “external” costs mask the true total cost of a particular mode (Glazebrook 2009) and the cost imposed on other travellers (congestion, accident risk and pollution) (Hensher & Hauge 2002). As such, the finding of Cools et al. (2009) mentioned above and the conclusions from Glazebrook (2009) and Vuchic et al. (1998) indicate that raising the “out-of-pocket” cost of a particular mode will most likely change the make-up of mode choices. Service and Comfort Service encompasses a rather broad range of concepts and benefits offered by transport modes. “Service quality criteria fall into 10 key categories” (Burkhardt 2003), the category that notably recurs in other literature is timeliness. Outwater et al., Peek & Hagen and Siraut & Gay (2003; 2002; 2009) highlight the importance of time with their respective studies analysing the factors that influence modal choice. Introducing us to the term “time poverty”, Siraut & Gay (2009) highlight that in the current day, people do not have the time available to them to do everything they need to do. As such, people do not want to waste time travelling which makes speed (Outwater et al. 2003) and punctuality (Jackson & Jucker 1982) a traveller’s primary requirement. Another most notable factor is areas relating to customer-staff interactions. The “availability of station [and on-board] personnel enhances the experience” (Siraut & Gay 2009) which is also covered in Burkhardt (2003)’s ‘10 key categories’ under the abbreviated points of: Courtesy, Communication, Responsiveness and Security. To
  • 24. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 24 a similar effect, the tangible, non-personal, physical aspects of a travel mode also affect a passenger’s perception of service. From digestion of the work by Cools et al. (2009), Beaverstock et al. (2009) and Peek & Hagen (2002), factors that constitute comfort can be deduced as being non- personal services; as such, Comfort can be thought of as an extension of Service. Peek & Hagen (2002) classify these tangible comfort aspect as the “visual features” which include the “architectural layout, colours and materials used, cleanliness, and light [levels]”. Hensher & Hauge (2002) classify both of these factors under the criteria of “Acceptability” in their “Five A’s of Senior-Friendly Transportation” model. In addition to these visual comfort aspects covered above, Cools et al. (2009), Beaverstock et al. (2009) and Peek & Hagen (2002) include amenities such as electricity outlets, internet access and access to entertainment media while in transit to the mix of services available to travellers as comfort items. The availability of these services is becoming prolific with the decreasing cost of technology (Peek & Hagen 2002). It is evident from these authors’ work that service is quite a broad topic but each facet within it has a profound effect on a traveller’s modal choice. 2.4 Modes of Transport Modern transport literature concerns itself with only three types of transport: road, rail and air. As: “the choice of transport mode is a complex process that is influenced by several factors, such as socio-demographic variables, psycho-sociological variables, the type of journey, the perceived service performance of each transport mode and situational variables” (Cools et al. 2009) the reported advantages and disadvantages of the respective modes in the literature are outlined in the sections below. 2.4.1 Road Transport The car is a fundamental method of transport for many people because of its “instrumental function (it enables activities), but also for its symbolic (car is a means to express yourself or your social position) and affective (driving is pleasurable and arousing) function” (Cools et al. 2009).
  • 25. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 25 The research of Nilsson & Kuller and Hiscock et al. (cited in Cools et al. (2009), p.440), agree that car affection seems to be one of the strongest forces for this particular mode. It also has very flexible application over greatly varied distances (Lyons & Chatterjee 2008) with its superior length of infrastructure. Buses, while technically a road-going transport mode, tend to be classified by the literature together with rail transport under the broader umbrella of ‘public transport’ (Cools et al. 2009). The conclusion of Cools et al. in regard to favouring the car for its instrumental function, can be reinforced by the finding of Jackson & Jucker (1982) when they say “the “reliability” of a particular mode or route plays an important role in the traveller’s choice behaviour, both with regard to mode choice and route choice”. 2.4.2 Rail and Public transport Literature strongly favours the use of public transport. The main reasons behind this is metropolitan rail, followed by bus, is the cheapest mode for travellers in terms of total cost, the greenhouse gas emissions are lower, the accident rate is lower and it creates less congestion (Glazebrook 2009). The survey of Cools et al. (2009) also concludes that public transport is popular for some since it gives them productive time which driving a car would not do, unfortunately they also lose privacy and convenience. For most people who utilise public transport, they do not regard other modes as a status symbol or part of their identity (Cools et al. 2009). 2.4.3 Air Transport Air travel becomes a critical mode once large distances are involved – Lyons & Chatterjee (2008) say this starts to become obvious at the 1600km marker. Like the car (road) mode, trips occur over many distances dependent on the purpose and point of origin (Lyons & Chatterjee 2008). In the 10 year period since 1997, domestic aircraft movements have increased by 17%, while kilometres flown have increased by 26% and hours flown increased by 24% (BITRE 2008) indicating that aircraft are being used for longer sectors than in the past. This is coherent with the findings of Lyons & Chatterjee above. 2.5 Environmental impact of modes The necessity to consider environmental footprints when conducting travel activities is very prevalent in popular culture and media (Kahn & Morris 2009). More and more
  • 26. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 26 company leaders now acknowledge and account for their company’s environmental impact (Beaverstock et al. 2009). The key concern for many of these firms is their carbon emissions from business related travel; it is not uncommon for travel to make up the majority of their total output (Beaverstock et al. 2009). Since the transport sector is the “largest end-use energy sector” (Root cited in Babalik-Sutcliffe (2007), p. 486) and produces “more than one-quarter of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions” (Hamilton cited in Babalik-Sutcliffe (2007), p. 486), it is expected to need to go though substantial policy shift in order to fall into line with sustainability objectives (Babalik-Sutcliffe 2007). 2.5.1 Infrastructure The emerging policies of most countries have put emphasis on the need to move passenger and freight transport from petro-dependent modes such as road and air. So far, the growth of modes has not been equal, growing faster in the polluting modes than those that are seen as more economically and environmentally sustainable, such as rail and sea (Babalik-Sutcliffe 2007). The research of Kingham et al. (cited in Cools et al. (2009), p. 438) says that people are aware of the environmental impact of their car use and are willing to use alternatives. Positively, there is shift towards the use of public transport in the last few years, particularly toward rail (Cools et al. 2009), the lowest emitter of greenhouse gasses of the three main modes (Chester & Horvath 2010; Glazebrook 2009). Negatively affecting the adoption of rail from other modes, is the latency at which people experience the environmental benefits of rail (Cools et al. 2009). The problem the US Department of Transport have experienced is their transport policy attempts to solve environmental issues with “policy instruments like technical measures and regulations, not by reconsidering [the] transport policies” to make environmentally friendly modes a more integral part of the community as the case is in Europe (Gudmundsson 2003). An argument put forward by Sánchez-Borràs et al. (2010) asks governments to reconsider putting access charges on new high speed rail infrastructure to recoup some of the cost of installation. The authors indicate in their argument that a charge could reduce the social benefits, which could undermine the intention of the policy that lead to the initial approval of the rail project. 2.6 Relationship between modes
  • 27. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 27 2.6.1 Definition Studies have been conducted to show that a person’s decision to travel by a certain mode is generally based upon the travel time, the cost, the reliability of the modes and the difference between them. How much importance a particular traveller attaches to each of these factors or others they may have, will determine their choice of travel mode. (Peek & Hagen 2002) A mode choice can firstly be made on whether the trip is short-haul or long haul. O'Neill, Fulton & Brown (1999) found that short-haul travel exhibits competition between modes, unlike the general dominance of a single mode for long-haul travel, namely Air passenger transport. The differences are summarised in that short-haul travel times are shorter, so frequency becomes a factor of mode choice, which is complex because there are often many routes and mode choices. The option of multimodal travel is seen within short-haul, so different modes are analysed simultaneously by looking at interchange and single ticket travel options. Long-haul travel was seen by O'Neill, Fulton & Brown (1999) to be less elastic with respect to its attributes, had fewer routes and mode choice alternatives with an increasing distance and separate markets existed for each mode alternative, which makes multimodal travel difficult. Taylor, Nozick & Meyburg (1997) introduces the idea that, engineers, planners, politicians, employers and local interest groups can influence travel demand for certain modes by way of travel demand management (TDM). This alters the attractiveness of a certain mode to increase the attractiveness of a more favourable mode that the particular group desires. This was found to be done by traffic constraints, public transport improvements, peak-period dispersion, ride sharing, parking controls and land-use control techniques. Lanzendorf (2002) suggests that mode choice can be determined by leisure needs, stating that “travelling is considered to be fun in its own right or a source of relaxation”, as seen in cycling or driving to no apparent destination. They also found a correlation between the ownership of cars and orientation of lifestyles in favour of cars, like frequency of leisure journeys and the mobility required for leisure travel. Ubbels, Rodenburg & Nijkamp (2003) also found the increasing for desire for personal mobility, which would lead to the supremacy of the car over marginalised public transport, without any strong regulatory policies as described above in TDM. Except in the place of High speed (HS) transport where they expect fierce competition between High-speed rail (HSR) and Air passenger transport (APT).
  • 28. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 28 It is forecasted by Ubbels, Rodenburg & Nijkamp (2003) that in the long run, HSR network will be enlarged, with this and intercontinental air travel being the fastest growing modes for passenger transport. They also see a passenger shift towards HSR with increased congestion in APT for intra-continental travel, as well as a shift from air and water transport for freight, to be increasingly transported by HSR, which is currently experiencing a poor rate of performance. 2.6.2 High-Speed Transport Janic (2003b) defines High-speed transports are those that can transport passengers or goods over a greater area in a shorter amount of time than other systems. For passengers, research has been done to compare Air Passenger Transport (APT), High-Speed Rail (HSR) and Trans-Rapid Maglev (TRM). In most cases unless specified, TRM can be incorporated into data found for HSR. 2.6.3 Competition Givoni & Banister (2007) suggests that the main beneficiaries from competition between HS transport modes should be the customers of these modes, in reduced costs, higher service and greater frequencies. Janic (2003a) has found that passengers of high-speed transport choose their mode by the lowest apparent general cost, which was usually the “out of pocket” costs. This was found to be in addition to factors such as frequency of departure, accessibility costs to the system, travel fares and the level of quality of the service (Janic cited by Janic (2003a)). There were others factors that were found to influence mode choice, being the age group, type of travel and perceived safety when comparing alternatives, meaning that the lowest fare was not always the competing factor. Janic (2003b) found APT was the least preferable alternative when there was a more substantial set of criteria to meet when selecting a mode choice, which included the view of an operator in some regards. This covered distance to the HS terminal, generalised travel cost, in-vehicle comfort and convenience, operating costs, operating revenue, technical productivity, investments, socio-economic rate of return, social welfare, specific energy consumption, safety, air pollution, noise, land-use and congestion. HSR or TRM was found to be the preferred alternative.
  • 29. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 29 It was found by Givoni & Banister (2007) that policy makers made the promotion of HSR in substitution for APT when there are congestion problems in and around airports and also to reduce the impacts that APT has on the environment. This was found to create heightened competition between the modes, but in a negative way that doesn’t result in the integration that other competition may bring. It could be counterproductive to industries and society. Janic (citing Interaction between high-speed rail and air passenger transport, Janic (2003a), p.261) concluded that modal substitution by competition of HS modes may improve the internal efficiency of each particular system and then by complementary substitution, its emissions or burden on the environment. Givoni & Banister (2007) also found evidence that many airlines probably incur financial losses and lose market share from operating on such routes in competition with HSR. But they continue to offer services at a high frequency because they feed the airlines long haul flights, which bring profit to the airline. This is a case where complimentary or cooperation between APT and HSR would benefit both industries. 2.6.4 Cooperation It is known that economic literature favours intermodal competition in the usual case, as this gives mode choice to the user resulting in lower prices. The following literature argues why cooperation may be more beneficial to operators and users of HS transport. It was found that currently the main rationale for having a rail connection at an airport was for people to begin or end their journey by having rail access to meet their flight Givoni & Banister (2007). It is suggested that railways could have a greater function and could be considered as an integral part of the APT, benefiting both industries. Cantle (2010) considers that the rail network “is not the enemy of the airlines,” and that they could “explore the possibility of cooperation”. Janic (2003a) also looked at the cooperative alternative between HSR and APT. It was found that for cooperation to work, airports should be connected to the HSR network, the timetables of services should facilitate connectivity, and there should be convenient transferring and checking of passengers and their baggage onto the other mode with through ticketing. Obviously this would only be for a viable distance, that t was for people to begin or end their journey by having rail access to meet their flight Givoni & Banister (2007) explains would work in an integrated transport service for trip lengths up to 800km. The integration was found to either offer an alternative mode of transport on the
  • 30. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 30 same route, or use the one mode to feed the other, resulting in greater destinations and frequencies. Givoni & Banister (2007) goes into further detail in cooperation, suggesting two types, being simple cooperation or full cooperation. Simple, being the provision of rail as an access mode to an airport, resulting is reduced road congestion, air pollution and benefits to the users of the rail service. Full cooperation, was suggested to be rail as an integrated part of the air transport network. The results were found to be a reduction in slots required by an airline, increased revenue for rail operators, and travel timesavings for passengers. It is also mentioned by Givoni & Banister (2007) that full cooperation could lead to reduce competition, which may lead to an increased price for users. Givoni & Banister and Janic (2007; 2003a) say ultimately full cooperation will result is spare capacity on each mode, resulting in service frequency increases. It was found that three ways in which this could be done are: firstly the HSR could partially replace APT by collecting and distributing passenger flows between a hub airport and its spokes. Second, the APT could continue to connect the hub airports, while the HSR completely provide all feeders along the spokes. Thirdly, the opposite could occur, with APT feeding the hubs and having a HSR service between the hubs. 2.6.5 Safety HS transport in the Western regions is extremely safe compared to other modes of transport. It has be investigated by Janic (2003a) that the annual death rate per billion passenger kilometres in APT is 0.00580, where as HSR has a figure of 0.00114. Janic (2003a) concludes that HSR has an advantage over APT, although if data was instead from particular regions, the figures could be different. 2.6.6 Reliability / Punctuality It was considered by Janic (2003a) that delays to HS transport services are caused by congestion. It seems that weather delays or other factors were not reflected upon. Janic (2003a) defines congestion as “whenever demand exceeds the capacity of a service facility”. This then causes delays that results in lost time and a burden to society, including the environmental impacts of additional air pollution, increased need for infrastructure that then leads to requirements for land acquisition. Janic (2003a) suggests this can also impact on safety by increases in the complexity of the transport.
  • 31. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 31 Janic (citing the AEA Yearbook 2000, Janic (2003a), p.267) cited that it found on average, 20% flights reported delays of greater than 15 minutes. So every fifth flight is delayed by more than 15 minutes. Janic compared this to HSR, who found that delays were always less than 15 minutes. It was then concluded that HSR offers less burden in terms of lost time compared to APT, resulting in reduced flow on affects of congestion as mentioned above. However, Janic (2003a) says this needs to be compared to the overall travel time of HSR and APT as HSR has a lower cruising speed, so still may be slower. 2.6.7 Operating Cost Chester (2010) compared the components of Air transport and High speed rail in a study in California. It was found that the components of these transport options could be divided into the three categories of vehicle components, infrastructure components and fuel components. 2.6.7.1 Vehicle components In terms of operation, Chester (2010) defined vehicle components as the active operation, which includes the propulsion for Rail transport, and for Air transport, the segments of take off, climb out, cruise, approach and landing. It also includes the inactive operation, being idling and auxiliaries (heating, ventilation, air conditioning and lighting) for Rail, and Auxiliary power unit, start-up, taxi out and taxi in for Air. Maintenance costs are also considered, which covers maintenance of the train or aircraft, their engines and the cleaning of their cabins. Insurance costs of the vehicles, covering crew health and benefits and the vehicle liabilities are also an operating cost in this section. 2.6.7.2 Infrastructure components The infrastructure components for Rail were found to be such things as station lighting, escalators, train control, and parking lighting. For air transport these were said to be runway lighting, de-icing fluid production and ground support equipment. Infrastructure maintenance is also considered, being airport maintenance for Air transport, while station and track maintenance is listed for Rail and cleaning costs for both modes can be looked at. Insurance was again considered for each mode, covering infrastructure liability and non-crew health insurance benefits.
  • 32. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 32 2.6.7.3 Fuel components For Air transport, Chester (2010) defines simply as the operating cost being the refining and distribution of jet fuel for the aircraft. On the other hand, Rail transport, depending on the energy source, could be the generation of electricity, the refining and distribution of diesel, and the costs associated with each. Volatility of the energy source costs could also be considered. 2.6.8 Comparative Environmental Issues It is known that HS transport generates emissions and burdens the environment on a local, regional and global level, in terms of flora, fauna, ecosystems and people’s health. These result from the use of energy and land, producing air pollution, noise and congestion. These burdens have a physical, social and economic impact at the local, regional and global level (2003a). When comparing HSR to APT, Janic (2003a) was able to conclude the environmental impact of each mode in terms of energy consumption in kW hours per passenger kilometres. It was found that HSR consumed between 0.19kW h/ pax km. APT consumed varying amounts with different aircraft types, divided into short-haul, medium-haul and long-haul routes. The energy consumption was 0.380, 0.586 and 1.618 kW h/ pax km respectively. Janic (2003a) found the evidence shows at this point in time, HSR had an advantage over APT. With the progression in technology, these figures may well have changed, and more recent research needs to be conducted to find the preferable mode or the difference between them at present. In terms of noise, it was concluded by Janic (2003a) that HSR would have an advantage at departure and arrival, where noise levels are low, but have a greater impact on surroundings en route, especially in high-density areas, where APT would be at an altitude sufficient to have a marginal impact. They concluded that noise pollution advantage would then depend on surroundings en route and at either end of the route. Ultimately, once in place, rail transport can be regarded as a relatively environmentally friendly operation, competing very well in terms of CO2 emissions (High Speed Rail for Australia: An opportunity for the 21st century 2008; Ubbels, Rodenburg & Nijkamp 2003). However despite this, operating over greater distances presents larger environmental issues because more infrastructure is built, more
  • 33. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 33 energy is consumed and more polluting emissions are released (Limtanakool, Dijst & Schwanen 2006). Particularly in the case of the proposed Californian High Speed Rail project, Marriott & Matthews (cited in Chester & Horvath (2010), p. 2) outline how “the import of coal- based electricity changes the emissions profile of the mode”. This is a concern for Australia, as our “near-total reliance on coal” for electricity suggests emissions would be higher than the study’s European data indicates (High Speed Rail for Australia: An opportunity for the 21st century 2008). 2.7 Past Studies Post release of the first draft submission of this literature review, the Australian Federal Government commissioned a feasibility study into the economic attractiveness of a High Speed Rail link along the east coast of Australia. Its research and subsequent publishing’s outlined the broad major economic factors associated with planning and constructing the HSR link. The conclusions it summarised were the most appropriate corridors based on forecast patronage demands, net regional economic benefits, environmental impact and the capital cost, adjusted for the risk involved with land acquisition and unplanned expenses. These results are preliminary to the secondary phase of the study which will be to perform a much deeper and thorough analysis of the short-listed corridor options outlined in the primary phase (Transport 2011). Unlike in literature produced by the likes of Van Goeverden (2009) and Siraut & Gay (2009), this literature produced much more quantitative statistical data rather than analysis of why people travel. Similarly with a comparison to Urry (2002) and Mallett & McGuckin (2000), factors involving socio-economic status were not factored in to their patronage demands. An analysis of the capital costs involved with constructing and operating a HSR link was performed, however this excludes operating cost comparisons to other modes of transport so a suitable comparison to the work of Chester (2010) is unable to be performed. Likewise, with the work of Janic (2003a), the environmental aspects analysed are not relatable to the areas covered by the government study so some gaps in the study exist in this regard also. It is clear that the Australian government feasibility study has not concerned its research with the
  • 34. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 34 subjective reasons of why people would use a High Speed Rail service that previously analysed literature has tried to accomplish. This gives further reason for future research to attempt to fill this gap in the knowledge.
  • 35. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 35 2.8 Conclusion The literature review began with the question of why people travel. As it progressed, this was refined to the question of why people physically travel when there are other options of virtual travel available with advances in technology. The main reasons for this were found to be the sub categories of: leisure, business and emergency. Leisure was found to be the largest market for reason for travel, mainly due to the increasing leisure time people have, changing lifestyle and the general increasing income that people have available to spend on travel. The social aspect of business travel came to be the main reason that video conferencing has not had a significant effect on business travel. The social and psychological reasons of trust and confidence associated with face-to-face interactions were found to be the reason this market remains in existence. Emergency reasons for travel were attributed to political instability and natural disasters. Research could be conducted on the effects and impacts these have on the travel market, rather than how much this sector makes up as a reason for travel. Unfortunately there seems to be a gap in the research regarding personal emergencies. Whether this is because of the un-forcastable nature of personal emergencies or other sensitivities, we are unsure, but we estimate both to have an effect. In regards to the findings from customer drivers, the importance people placed on certain variables of travel were not always unanimous. Travel cost was at the forefront of preference, followed by others like experience, interchanges, reliability, travel times, comfort, waiting times, car ownership, luggage space, gender and travel distance. There were inconclusive results as to access and egress time, while the surprising outcome from the literature was that frequency was of little importance. Technology plays a role in customer drivers, in step with the customers growing need for convenience, finding that customers only want if they can see the benefits and it simplifies processes like access to transport. Studies on the demographics confirmed the expectation that income levels have a great effect, but the extent that this plays a role was found to be typically relative, as twice the income would yield twice the number of journeys and double the distance travelled. Age was also a prevalent factor, as to their type of trips, while the number of people in a household changed certain travel requirements such as the need for timesavings.
  • 36. KRIS GREENHILL – 6158536 & DION MULLETT-TRELOAR – 615834X WILL A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SYDNEY WORK? 36 Access to transport was found to be determined by the factors of financial availability, physical accessibility, ticketing, interchange, information access, and the matching of services with the destinations that people require. When looking at modes of transport, the comparisons of literature were split into Road transport, Rail/Public transport and Air transport. Road transport, mainly used for its flexibility in terms of destinations and time of use, was later discounted in the review, as it didn’t compare with High Speed Rail (HSR) or Air Passenger Transport (APT) when looking at the long haul market in High Speed Transport. Trans-Rapid Maglev, another form of High Speed Transport was incorporated into HSR for the review of literature. Competition between the modes of High speed transport were found, on a preference level, to relate closely to the preference factors discussed earlier in the literature for all modes of transport. Some further findings about direct competition in this market, found that HSR was the preferred alternative, when there was a more substantial set of criteria. Another matter that held in favour of HSR over APT which was not discussed earlier, was the topic of congestion. Some literature suggested cooperation between modes would be favourable for both the operators and users of High Speed Transport. It was found that HSR stations should be located at airports and connectivity and transfers should be facilitated so the modes could feed each other, giving greater destinations and frequency, reduced slot congestions, and travel time savings for passengers. Literature of the environmental impact of High Speed Transport found that HSR consumed less energy than APT, but the emissions need to be determined in each individual market to the electricity energy source for rail and the subsequent emissions as a result. Noise was also dependant on variables, favouring APT on route while HSR was the preference at departure point and destination. Safety of both High Speed Transport modes were both found to be excellent, although the numbers of fatalities per passenger distance favoured HSR, as did reliability and punctuality of the service which found HSR way ahead of APT, while noting that the travel times may still be shorter overall for APT even on long haul. Operational costs of the two High Speed Transport options were another consideration that would vary with each country, the vehicle used, operator and travel route. The literature defined the operating costs considered when comparing the modes to be the vehicle components, the infrastructure components and the fuel components. The literature outlining the most recent feasibility study came to conclusions over the economic factors involved with the construction of a High Speed Rail network from