Key note presentation delivered at the Policy Control 2011 conference in Amsterdam, April 5, 2011.

1. The transition to LTE, the role of policy & control.Policy Control, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 5th April 2011. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology EconomicsTechnology, Deutsche Telekom.

2. 2 Uncontrolled data growth ... Smartphone traffic has exploded over last 2 years. ×7 Smartphone indicators Data signaling ×6 Smartphones ×4 Throughput ×5 Volume December 2008 to December 2010 Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Policy Control April 5th, 2011, Amsterdam.

3. 3 Uncontrolled data growth...Will accelerate spectrum shortage. The 3G traffic jam! 3G capacity crunch. Re-farming spectrum. New spectrum demand. Empty 2G roads - in time? Re-farming GSM! HSPA+ versus LTE ? Technology timing! Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Policy Control April 5th, 2011, Amsterdam.

4. 4 Uncontrolled data growth ... Will it lead to the End of Profitability? Revenue Positive FCF Negative Flat price plans and uncontrolled traffic growth will accelerate the road to The End. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Policy Control April 5th, 2011, Amsterdam.

5. Today’s bit pipe and the bottlenecks.Network expansion as traffic “management” remedy. Air/TRX/Site Spectrum & Floor space Node Processing capacity Backhaul bandwidth Backbone bandwidth Core Switching Web Apps servers Bandwidth, CPU & Storage. traffic pressure points due to aggregation + Sectorization + Additional spectral capacity (if available) Off Loading (AP, Femto, …) RNC GGSN SGSN RNC GGSN SGSN LL -> MW -> Fiber -> + Colors Packet Core Web 2.0 Node +CE + Colors + switching capacity + CPU + switching capacity +CPU (i.e., CE, etc.) (up-to system limit) Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Policy Control April 5th, 2011, Amsterdam.

7. BH throttling.

8. Service based (dpi) throttling.

10. Typically capture <10% of users.

11. Little structural network impact.FUP implementations might not be very efficient as traffic management remedies. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Policy Control April 5th, 2011, Amsterdam.

13. ca. 16 traffic hours.

14. 30% traffic in-fill possibility.data voice Policy & control remedy: traffic management, traffic shaping and new business (charging) models. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Policy Control April 5th, 2011, Amsterdam.

16. 80% data traffic carried by 3 cells1.

17. Remaining 20% carried over 28 cells.“20% mobility” Policy & control remedy: traffic off-load & throttling policies and new business (charging) models. 1 on a per user basis. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Policy Control April 5th, 2011, Amsterdam.

19. Mobile Apps development.

20. Device & (App) usage trends.1 Policy & control: Apps based usage policy, control (dpi based) and new business (charging) models. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Policy Control April 5th, 2011, Amsterdam.

23. iPad App 80±125 MB (WiFi).300% 200% 180% 130% 25% 2% Policy & control remedy: traffic prioritization and apps control. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Policy Control April 5th, 2011, Amsterdam.

25. 2 main states (i.e., 5 in 3G/HSPA).

26. Faster state transition.The QoS and policy control in LTE are much richer and flexible. LTE is better optimized for short packet transmission. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Policy Control April 5th, 2011, Amsterdam.

28. Investment deferral.

29. Mitigating spectrum limitations.Time Today HSPA+ Tomorrow LTE Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Policy Control April 5th, 2011, Amsterdam.

30. Policy and Charging Rules Function.An enabler for more intelligent traffic management. AP GGSN SGSN Packet Core Web 2.0 Node Gx PCRF Trafficmonitor & manager Quota + - DB Timer Cell load cruncher Rx / Sy DB IN DB DB Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Policy Control April 5th, 2011, Amsterdam.

31. Vision.PCRF an enabler for intelligent traffic management. AP GGSN SGSN Packet Core Web 2.0 eNode Real Time Network Info Network Change Trafficmonitor & manager Bearer priority Congestion Cell load cruncher Bearer & App speed Subscriber PCRF Quota + - DB Application priority Application Timer Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Policy Control April 5th, 2011, Amsterdam.

32. 15 Summary.What we need to be passionate about. We cannot wait for LTE to implement intelligent traffic management. Apps-based policy, charging & control needs (more) consideration. Optimized traffic growth means controlled profitability. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Policy Control April 5th, 2011, Amsterdam.

33. Thank You! Contact: kim.larsen@t-mobile.nl Tel: +31 6 2409 5202 http://nl.linkedin.com/in/kimklarsen