The Energiewende - A Social Contract for the German Energy Future

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies
IASS in Potsdam

The Energiewende – A Social Contract for the German Energy Future

Dr. Petri Hakkarainen
Senior Fellow
IASS Potsdam

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012

The German Energy Transition in a Nutshell

Along history …
 The concept “Energiewende” was first coined already in 1980 (Öko-Institut)
 Two main elements: exit from nuclear power, entry into renewable energies
 A feed-in tariff system for renewables first introduced in 1991
 Government decisions in 2000-2002: nuclear phase-out extending into the
2020s and introduction of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)
 New energy concept under the current government in September 2010:
extension of nuclear operating times combined with ambitious goals for
emission reduction, share of renewables and energy efficiency

… and a recent shock
 Immediate shutdown of the oldest nuclear power plants and appointment
of an Ethics Commission for a safe energy supply after the Fukushima shock
in March 2011
 Final report of the Ethics Commission in May 2011, government decision on
“The Energiewende” in June 2011: nuclear exit by 2022
 Other targets of the 2010 energy concept remain, e.g. share of renewables
by 2050: 60 % of energy consumed, 80 % of electricity produced


The Road to the First German Nuclear Exit

A strong anti-nuclear public sentiment for decades
 Peace movement increasingly against nuclear
weapons from the late 1970s
 Nuclear accidents in Three Mile Island
1979, Chernobyl 1986
 Neckarwestheim 2 in 1989 – the last new nuclear
power plant to start running in Germany

The Red-Green government 1998-2005
 Agreement with the industry in 2000, leading to a
change in legislation in 2002: nuclear phase-out
based on electricity amounts of an average
lifetime of 32 years per power plant
 Simultaneous introduction of the Renewable
Energy Sources Act (EEG)


… and an Exit from the Exit from the Exit

Grand Coalition government of Chancellor Merkel 2005-2009
 Agreement to disagree on the phase-out between the coalition partners

Black-Yellow government of Chancellor Merkel from 2009
 Autumn 2010: Extension of operating times of nuclear power plants by 8 to
14 years, combined with an ambitious energy concept where nuclear power
figures as a “bridge technology” to the future
 Spring 2011: the Fukushima shock, immediate shutdown of the oldest
nuclear power plants in Germany and the appointment of an Ethics
Commission for a safe energy supply
 Final report of the Ethics Commission in May 2011 and amendment of the
Atomic Energy Act in the summer: an accelerated phase-out ending in 2022

Federal election in the autumn 2013
 Other elements of the Energiewende hotly debated, but a very broad
consensus supporting the nuclear exit – a further nuclear U-turn not to be
expected


Geography and Timetable of the Nuclear Exit

Eight of the seventeen nuclear power
plants were permanently shut down in
2011 (marked in red)

The remaining nine power plants will be
phased out gradually
 Grafenrheinfeld in 2015
 Gundremmingen B in 2017
 Philippsburg 2 in 2019
 Grohnde, Brokdorf and
Gundremmingen C in 2021
 Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2 and Emsland
in 2022

Source for map: stepmap.de


The Energiewende as a Collective Effort

The Energiewende is more than just a nuclear exit: a complete transformation
of the energy system of a highly industrialized country

An extensive legislative package with ambitious targets for the coming decades
 Greenhouse gas emissions: 2020 -40%, 2050 -80% (reference year 1990)
 Renewables 2050: 60% of energy consumed, 80% of electricity produced
 Consumption 2050: primary energy -50%, electricity -25 % (ref. 2008)

All three corners of the energy triangle need to be taken into account:
security of supply, competitiveness and environmental sustainability

The Ethics Commission: “the energy transition will only succeed through a
collective effort spanning all levels of politics, business and society” (in
German: “Gemeinschaftswerk”)

“The era of renewable energies and energy efficiency” - major opportunities
and challenges involved


The German Electricity Mix in 2011

Hard coal 19 %
Nuclear 18 %

Renewables 20 %
Natural gas 14 %

Heating oil, pump
Lignite 25 % storage etc. 5 %
Source: BMWi


Renewables Target: From 20/80 to 80/20 by 2050

Others combined 20 %

Renewables 80 %


Scenarios for the Future Electricity Generation

Source: BMU-DLR-IWES-IfnE (2012)


Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)

Feed-in tariffs existed already in the early 1990s, but the genuine success story
of the renewables began with the introduction of the EEG in 2000
 Feed-in tariff system guarantees preferential grid access for renewable
electricity and a price fixed for the next 20 years
 Share of renewables in the electricity mix has been tripled in ten years:
from 6,7 % in 2001 to 20 % in 2011
 In the first half of 2012 renewables already accounted for 25 % of
electricity consumption – expansion is ahead of schedule

A lively debate about the future of the EEG is currently going on in Germany
 Distribution of the expanding costs of the system between consumers and
industry – exemptions of the EEG surcharge (“EEG-Umlage”)
 Cap of installed capacity for PV solar now set at 52 GW, tariff and
degression-rate adjustments across the board
 Expansion of offshore wind: funding and accountability
 How to make renewables competitive and market-compatible?


Rapid Expansion of Renewables in the Past 10 Years

Source: BMU


Towards a New Electricity Market Design

With the rising share of renewables, an energy-only market is approaching its
limits
 With their marginal costs close to zero, renewables push conventional
capacities out of the merit order at the wholesale market
 Increased volatility due to the fluctuating character of wind and solar power
 Introduction of flexibility as a new economic value

The debate about a new market design is under way
 Market integration of renewables and a reform of the EEG – when and how?
 The role of the conventional power plants – capacity markets or strategic
reserves?
 Aggressive campaign for a quota model to replace feed-in system
 Separate solutions or convergence?

The European context: market design needs to be compatible with the internal
market of the European Union


New Requirements for the Infrastructure

The Energiewende requires a thorough
transformation of the grid infrastructure

Linking expanded wind supply in the North to
the demand in the West and the South: 3800
km of new transmission lines needed

Increasingly decentralized production also sets
new demands for the distribution grid

Introduction of smart grids and smart
meters, demand side management, storage
options, electric vehicles etc.

The building sector accounts for 40 % of total
energy consumption: a key role in improving
energy efficiency
Source: Bundesnetzagentur


Energy Prices and Public Acceptance

Source: BMU


“Future Made in Germany”?

In spite of the evident
challenges, the Energiewende holds
enormous potential for the future
 Sustainability and climate
protection
 Decoupling of emissions and
growth – if one of the leading
economies in the world
succeeds in this, others are
more likely to follow
 A leading role in the growing
global market of energy and
environmental technologies
 Job creation at home: by some estimates already over 380.000 people in Germany
working in the renewables sector
 Reduced dependency of energy imports
 Decentralization enhancing public participation in energy policy


Research and Development for the Energiewende

The sixth energy research program of the Federal Government
 3,5 billion Euros for R&D on sustainable energy technologies in 2011-14
 Funding from the federal budget and from the “Energy and Climate Fund”
 Main priorities: energy efficiency, renewables, energy storage, grid
technology, fusion technology and nuclear safety
 Improvements in international research cooperation

A key role of the traditional scientific research institutions of Germany
(Fraunhofer, Leibniz, Max Planck and Helmholtz)

IASS Potsdam a new actor in the field, relevant with all its research clusters
 Global Contract for Sustainability
 Earth, Energy and the Environment
 Sustainable Interactions with the Atmosphere
 Enabling Technologies for Sustainability


Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies

 Inspired by the 2007 Nobel Laureate Symposium “Global Sustainability – A Nobel
Cause” held in Potsdam
 International, interdisciplinary and networked research on sustainability
 More than 70 researchers, fellows and project managers from renowned research
institutions
 Contacts to high-level scientific communities as well as to politics, NGOs and
media in Berlin
 Ranked No 1 among the “best new think tanks, established in the last 18
months” in 2010 by University of Pennsylvania


Vision and Mission of the IASS

Vision
 An independent, international research institute and think tank
 Serves as knowledge hub and broker for international high-level experts from
science, politics and society
 Focuses on sustainable development projects in a highly transdisciplinary
environment
 Links its activities to strategic dialogue with policy makers, civil society, the
business sector and the media

Mission
• Applying a transdisciplinary approach in making outstanding contributions to
scientific progress
• Developing innovative ideas on sustainability challenges and how solutions could
best be implemented across regions and sectors in open democratic societies
• Functioning as a hub for strategic dialogue between researchers, policy
makers, businesses and society


Transdisciplinary Panel on Energy Change (TPEC)

Launched in March 2012 as part of the IASS Cluster “Global Contract for
Sustainability”, taking on the suggestions of the Ethics Commission


Transdisciplinary Panel on Energy Change (TPEC)

Main tasks
 Providing independent scientific guidance of the Energiewende
 Facilitating an objective discourse about the transition
 Bringing together stakeholders from all sectors of society

Various formats
 Public hearings
 Thematic working groups (current priority topics “RES”, “CO2” and “Social”)
 Workshops and own research
 “TPEC Bilaterals” with neighboring countries
 First annual report in 2013

A transdisciplinary team
 Academic backgrounds in engineering, physics, law, history, political
science, sociology etc.
 Joint work experience spans from research and science to
diplomacy, consulting and management


Contact

Dr. Petri Hakkarainen
Senior Fellow
petri.hakkarainen@iass-potsdam.de

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.
Berliner Straße 130
D – 14467 Potsdam
Web: www.iass-potsdam.de


Rapid Expansion of Energy Cooperatives


Real Costs of Energy Carriers


The Energiewende - A Social Contract for the German Energy Future

Empfohlen

Empfohlen

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Was ist angesagt? (19)

Andere mochten auch

Andere mochten auch (20)

Ähnlich wie The Energiewende - A Social Contract for the German Energy Future

Ähnlich wie The Energiewende - A Social Contract for the German Energy Future (20)

Mehr von Sitra Kestävä talous -foorumi

Mehr von Sitra Kestävä talous -foorumi (20)

The Energiewende - A Social Contract for the German Energy Future