Advise for the wise is monthly journal which gives you a highlight of the current market analysis in terms of gold, equity, debt and forex market. Get the overview of the entire financial market in dew slides.
2. Contents
Index Page No.
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 12
Forex 14
Commodities 15
Real Estate 16
2
3. From the Desk of the CIO…
Dear Investor,
This calendar year, along with 4 years before it, has brought home an For example, a relatively harmless and in fact positive statement by the
important structural feature of the modern global financial system – US Fed Chairman on the 29th February this year, regarding the cautiously
volatility. Of course volatility of asset prices is probably as old as any optimistic state of the economic growth, caused widespread selling of
market for financial securities. However, what has changed in recent commodities and emerging market equities. The underlying reason was
times is the unprecedented growth in liquid assets and along with it the his connected statement regarding there being no immediate possibility
proportion of wealth held in easily tradable instruments. This unusually of another round of quantitative easing (QE) in US. The logic here is that
high and ever-growing liquidity of assets has translated into higher with no QE, there will not be another bout of easy liquidity pushing asset
turnover – as investors flock to some assets or flee some others from prices up. Hence many investors looked to exit the riskier assets which
time to time. The tremendous ease of transactions means that the had their prices rise sharply after an exercise similar to quantitative
opinion or outlook can readily lead to buy-sell decisions. Why does this easing in December last year – this time in EU.
matter? It does because this fundamentally entrenched feature of the
modern financial system implies frequent and long-lasting deviation of The equities rally in January and most of February this year along with
asset prices from their fundamental value. the emergence of caution towards the end of February, as also the sharp
fall in second half of 2011 are outcomes of the same structural volatility
This deviation is confusing in its mild form but highly corrosive in its of markets around the world. If 2003 to 2007 was the period of the great
extreme form. It has the potential to inflict large real and opportunity moderation, 2008 to 2012 definitely counts as the period of great
costs on investors – especially the non-institutional ones. It also leads the turbulence. It is very likely that the turbulence will continue through
investors to miss the woods for the trees since the large movements in much of the rest of the decade
asset prices make most investors overestimate the actual volatility of the
Learning to live with volatility is a bit like getting used to making a
prices – often causing needless panic. The practical implication of this is
conversation in a very noisy café. It is stressful to start with but one often
that investors often find themselves selling at the worst times, buying at
highs, paying too much for very little outperformance over passive gets accustomed soon enough – adjusting the pitch and intensity of one’s
indexing and so on. voice almost subconsciously. In a similar vein, building wealth through
the turbulence of this period, one would do well to get into a habit of
If this is the face of the brave new world, the investors need to filtering out noise, focusing on the task at hand and having the patience
recalibrate their expectations, thumb-rules and investment heuristics. of almost an ascetic! 3
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.19”
5. Economy Update - Global
• The Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in January on a seasonally adjusted
basis. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9% before seasonal adjustment.
US • Total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment rose by 243,000 in January 2012. The unemployment rate
decreased by 0.2% to 8.3% from an 8.5% in December 2011. Job growth was widespread in the private
sector, with large employment gains in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and
manufacturing.
• The European Central Bank released the second round of its 3-year LTRO operation on 29th February 2012,
which amounted to €529.53 billion to support the banking sector and help stem the crisis. This allotment
Europe was higher than the amount of €489 billion the ECB had allotted in month of December 2011.
• Consumer prices in the 17 countries that use the euro rose by 2.6%(y-o-y) in January 2012 down from
2.7% in month of December 2011.
• The seasonally adjusted Markit /JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was at 50.5 in February,
slightly down from 50.7 in January, signalling a continued, albeit marginal, improvement in
manufacturing sector business conditions.
Japan
• Japan's unemployment rate inched up to 4.6% in January from a revised 4.5% in the previous month
while household spending fell by 2.3% year-on-year. Japan's core consumer prices fell 0.1% in January
from a year earlier, the fourth consecutive month of decline.
• India’s activity in the manufacturing sector continued to expand in February, although at a slightly slower
pace. The seasonally adjusted HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), registered 56.6 in February,
Emerging slightly down from 57.5 in January.
economies • China’s HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index – a composite indicator designed to give a single-figure
snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – registered 49.6 in February, up from
48.8 in the preceding month.
5
6. Economy Outlook - Domestic
10.0% IIP • The double-digit expansion of consumer non-durables for
8.0% the second month in a row (14.4% in November 2011 and
6.0%
13.4% in December 2011) suggests some revival in consumer
spending on non-durable items, following a moderation in
4.0%
food inflation.
2.0%
0.0%
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-2.0%
10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
• Gross domestic product in India - Asia's third-largest
-4.0% economy - grew at an annual 6.1% in the third quarter. It is a
-6.0% significant slowdown from 6.9% in the previous quarter and
marks the fourth straight quarter of growth below 8%.
• India's industrial output recorded a slow growth of 1.8%
in December from 5.9% growth in November with a • The sluggish growth can be attributed to poor performance
weaker performance across all the use-based categories of the manufacturing, mining and farm sectors. The
except consumer non-durables. The November growth slowdown in the manufacturing sector, coupled with decline
had also benefitted from factors such as a benign base in mining and quarrying, is likely to put pressure on the
effect and spurt in production levels following fewer Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rate at its mid-quarter
working days in October 2011 related to the festive monetary policy review on March 15, 2012.
season, amidst others.
• In particular, capital goods underwent a contraction for GDP growth
8.6
the fourth consecutive month, with a steep 16.5% de- 9.0
8.1
8.4 8.3
7.8 7.7
growth in December 2011, whereas intermediate goods 8.0
6.9
displayed a contraction of 2.8% in the same month. 7.0
6.1
6.0
• Basic goods and consumer durables expanded by a
modest 4.0% and 5.3%, respectively, in December 2011, 5.0
suggesting that demand for final goods remains moderate. 4.0
FY10(Q4) FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3)
6
7. Economic Outlook - Domestic
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation, which
has remained in double digits for almost two years,
24.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits
declined further to 6.55% in January 2012 from 7.47% in
22.0%
the previous month. The moderation in January 2012
20.0% was led by a fall in food inflation with prices in the
18.0% manufactured and primary segment falling due to good
16.0% harvest.
14.0%
12.0% Wholesale food prices for the month of January grew at
10.0% 0.52% compared to 0.74% in December. Prices of
manufactured goods rose by 6.49%, moderating from
7.41% rise recorded in December. Notably, the WPI for
the month of November has been revised upwards to
9.46% from 9.11%.
As on January 27, bank credit grew by 50 bps i.e. 6.5% on a y- The Consumer Price Index, which was introduced keeping
o-y basis. The aggregate deposits grew by 15.7% on a y-o-y in mind that demand-side pricing would be a better
basis witnessing a decline of 150 bps as compared to last indicator of inflation stood at 7.65% for January. The new
month. CPI data was launched early last year and will gradually
displace WPI data as the primary indicator of inflationary
trends in India
We believe that if the February inflation numbers come around
10.0%
6.5%, RBI might start repo rate cuts very soon. We expect a 9.5%
cumulative repo rate cut of 100 bps for this calendar year. 9.0%
8.5%
8.0%
7.5% WPI
7.0%
6.5%
6.0%
* End of period figures 7
8. Equity Outlook
With monetary policy remaining extremely easy in developed part of the world and developing markets like China & India starting the
monetary easing cycle, we expect 2012 to be a good year for equities with India emerging as a big outperformer.
European debt markets have calmed down due to massive liquidity injection (LTRO 1) done by European central bank. Bond yields of
PIIGS countries have been coming down. This supply of liquidity has resulted in big rally in risk assets across the world. Greece has
been able to arrive at a deal with private bond holders and European authorities resulting in a fresh bailout package. With new LTRO
facility delivering 529 billion Euros to European banks, we expect the risk-on trade to continue.
Performance of Indices since the Beginning of LTRO 1
USD INR, -6.6%
CRB Index, 7.2%
MSCI Asia Pacific,
13.0%
Peformance (%) Nifty, 12.5%
FTSE, 10.1%
DowJones, 7.2%
DXY, -1.9%
-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%
8
9. Equity Outlook
RBI has started the reversal of the tight monetary policy with a 50 bps cut in cash reserve ratio (CRR). We would expect a further CRR
cut in the March policy. We believe that if February inflation number comes around 6.5%, RBI might start repo rate cuts very soon.
We expect a cumulative repo rate cut of 100 bps for this calendar year. The biggest beneficiaries of the reversal in policy would be
interest rate sensitive sectors like banks, autos and capital goods.
Union budget would be tabled on 16th March. We expect the finance minister to move towards Fiscal consolidation by capping fiscal
deficit. Expenditure on various social sector programme and subsidies might be raised by a limited amount. Revenue increasing
measures like Increase in excise duty and widening of service tax net are expected. Government might also focus on accelerating
infrastructure spending particularly for power segment. The government might also address issues like fuel linkage and
environmental clearance for coal mines. Also, we expect removal of import duty for coal. These measures would be positive for
power and infrastructure sectors.
We believe that going forward GDP growth will bounce back to 7-7.5% with monetary easing resulting in a boost to infrastructure
activity. We expect that inflation would come down this year and could average around 7% leading to nominal growth of 14-15%.
That would lead to corporate earnings growth of 15%. We expect Sensex earnings of INR 1300 for FY13 and around 1500 for FY14.
We arrive at a year end Sensex target of 22500 based on 15 times FY14 earnings which would give an upside of 30% from current
levels.
9
10. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. However, The significant slowdown in order inflow
activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has
E&C Overweight
started to reverse, we have turned more constructive on this space. Expected budget push will also be a
trigger.
Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from
consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has
BFSI Overweight
good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in
managing asset quality better and would lead to increase in credit growth
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
Healthcare Neutral developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
Pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and
CRAMS space
We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the
FMCG Neutral
growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.
The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability levels
Telecom Neutral in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and we
believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
10
11. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
While US and European customers of Indian IT companies are in good health, Order inflows might slow
IT/ITES Neutral down in near term. However, in the next few quarters big rupee depreciation will provide cushion to IT
companies earnings .
Demand outlook remains robust with strong earnings growth. Raw material prices have started coming
Automobiles Neutral down which would boost margins. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles
segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power.
Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about growth
Metals Neutral in developed parts of the world. We believe the commodity prices will bounce back once growth
recovers and hence would be positive on industrial metals space.
Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. With pricing power returning, e are
Cement Neutral
becoming constructive on this space.
We like the regulated return characteristics of this space. This space provides steady growth in
Power Utilities Neutral
earnings and decent return on capital.
We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
Energy Underweight
economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.
11
12. Debt Outlook
11.0 9.30
10.5 Yield curve 10-yr G-sec yield
10.0 8.80
9.5
9.0 8.30
(%)
8.5
8.0 7.80
7.5
7.30
7.0
6.5
6.80
6.0
5.3
0.0
0.9
1.8
2.7
3.5
4.4
6.2
7.1
8.0
8.8
9.7
10.6
11.5
12.4
13.3
14.1
15.0
15.9
16.8
17.7
18.5
19.4
• The 10 year benchmark G–Sec yield decreased by 8 bps in February to close at 8.20%.
• The 10-year G-sec yields were rather volatile and started dipping in the month end due to the GDP
figures which came in at 6.1%, below market expectations. The LTRO announcement though helped
the yields to jump back and end at 8.24% on 1st March 2012.
• The AAA rated corporate bonds are giving an yield of around 10.75%.
12
13. Debt Strategy
Category Outlook Details
With the pause by RBI and the expected trend reversal of the
interest rates, we would not recommend investment in Shorter
Short Tenure term debt funds unless money necessarily needs to be parked for
Debt the shorter term by the investor. However, the ST funds still have
high YTMs (9.5% – 10%) providing interesting investment
opportunities to clients for the shorter term.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the
Credit current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits
also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening
of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive.
With the expected trend reversal in the interest rates, we would
strongly recommend investment in Longer term papers. These, while
Long Tenure being available at attractive yields, also provide an opportunity for
Capital appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates. Hence, these
Debt
would be suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested
for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who
would want to lock in high yields for the longer term.
13
14. Forex
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data
100 0
Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)
8.00% 80 -5000
60
-10000
6.00% 40
-15000
20
4.00% 0 -20000
-20 -25000
2.00%
• India’s exports grew 10.1% to $25.35 billion in January
0.00%
USD GBP EURO YEN
2012, compared to $23.02 billion in the same year-ago
-2.00% month, while imports were up 20.25% at $40.10 billion
translating into a trade deficit of $14.75 billion.
140000
• Indian rupee posted a second straight month of gains against Capital Account Balance
the US Dollar. The rupee appreciated by 1.52% against the 90000
dollar in month of February.
40000
• However, surging crude oil prices and their cascading impact
on inflation and growth in India, which imports about 80 per -10000
FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)
cent of its oil requirements, is expected to limit the rise in
the rupee. • The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is at Rs.
84,400 Cr. while the Q1 figure was revised upwards to
• Rupee depreciated against Euro due to expectation during Rs.1,02,100 Crores.
the month that European Central Bank (ECB) will inject • We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract
nearly half a trillion Euros into banks in three-year more investments to India. Increased limits for investment
refinancing operation. by FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though
uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a
dampener.
14
15. Commodities
Having staged a good up move during most of February, gold went 30000
for a sharp selloff following comments from the Feb Chairman Ben Gold
28000
Bernanke. The expectation of QE3 that the metal market has been
pricing did not materialize the way the markets were expecting, 26000
thereby denting its safer haven status, while ECB announcing LTRO2
Precious postponed the default events in the Euro zone which triggered profit
24000
taking amongst the bulls. On the flip side, any such sharp down fall is 22000
Metals
currently supported by the physical off take. But, given the festive 20000
and marriage season behind us, expect weakness in the counter.
18000
Nevertheless, gold was behaving as we expected and as quoted
31/Jan/11
31/Dec/10
31/Dec/11
31/Mar/11
31/May/11
28/Feb/11
30/Apr/11
31/Jul/11
30/Sep/11
30/Nov/11
31/Oct/11
30/Jun/11
31/Aug/11
earlier, we expect softness in during the 1HCY2012. Expect range
bound markets with a negative bias.
130.0
As the US and Europe are out of the woods so far, the expectation of Crude
125.0
economic revival pushed Crude Oil prices further higher. Iran issue
continues to be centre of focus, while U.S. officials escalated 120.0
warnings that the nation may join Israel in attacking Iran to stop the
Oil & Gas 115.0
development of nuclear weapons. Despite, Saudi Arabia deploying
110.0
the most oil rigs in four years as it prepares for possible shortages
caused by tension with Iran, the recent rumours of Saudi pipeline 105.0
explosion further pushed prices higher. We continue to maintain our 100.0
bullish stance on oil and expect oil to trade at an elevated levels
95.0
with a possibility of spike moving forward.
90.0
31-…
31-…
28-…
31-…
30-…
31-…
30-…
31-…
31-…
30-…
31-…
30-…
31-…
16. Real Estate Outlook - I
Asset Classes Outlook
In the residential space, low sales volumes have led to a sharp decline in the absorption rate from 21.4% in Q1
2011 to 11.5% in Q3 2011. However, strong pre-launch sales have kept the developers far from any correction.
Though sales have gone down to almost 35% as compared to last year, no correction has been witnessed in the
prices. The over-supplied locations remain stagnant and are expected to remain so for the next two quarters. In
cities like Pune, NCR, Hyderabad, Chennai and Bangalore entry points in the range of Rs. 3000 – Rs. 4600 per
Residential
Sqft are still valued by first time home -buyers. Infrastructure development and the new airports in these cities
have supported the residential development. On an average, prices in this segment still remain affordable.
Mumbai stands tall with prices at the peak in an over-supplied market also. Corrections are being reported by
media, however not being witnessed on ground level. The retail investors (second home buyers) and HNI
investors are postponing their decision due to expectations of price correction.
Average q-o-q rental growth in 3Q11 was recorded at 2.5%. Mumbai SBD BKC was among the most expensive
markets and Bangalore and Chennai among the least expensive in Asia Pacific, on the basis of Net Effective
Rents. Among the fastest growing office market in the world, India is constructing 100 million Sqft every 7-10
quarters. Office stock is expected to become 500 million Sqft by 2015. The Net Absorption is expected to grow
from 30.5 million Sqft in 2010 to 39.1 million Sqft in 2013. Absorption rate has been recorded at 13.3% in
3Q11. 8.5 million Sqft of office space was absorbed in 3Q11 compared to 10.5 million sq ft in 2Q11.
Commercial/IT Still in the shadows of over-supply and cautious expansion approach by corporates, this segment has gone
through a correction. Rates per Sqft have seen almost 30% down-trend and is expected to be stagnant for the
coming 2-3 quarters. After this correction we believe the segment is bottoming out and is the best time to buy
for companies looking at long term holding of real estate office space. With signs of recovery in the global
economy, the Indian office markets are expected to be nearing the end of the downturn. Despite improving
demand conditions, vacancies are rising in the short term due to massive infusion of office space. Markets of
Bangalore, Mumbai and NCR-Delhi are leading the property cycle as rentals have started to increase in these
markets.
16
17. Real Estate Outlook - II
Asset Classes Outlook
The FDI allowance has given lot of impetus to this sector. Since 2009 retail has seen a major transformation in
all its business aspects and has been built to suit Indian way of consumerism. Low cost, wide reach, more
variety, less innovation, close existence with competition, maximizing bottom line than top-line approach have
been making the retailers smarter. In the retail space, unorganized markets are still a preferred choice. Most
high-street locations are still expensive. Investors prefer Hi-street locations than malls since they would always
have capital appreciation due to dearth of available space.
Retail
Of 9.9 mn sq ft forecasted for absorption in 2011, 7.1 mn sq ft has already been absorbed till 3Q11 and another
1.3 mn sq ft is pre-committed. The northern regions of India rate high on propensity to consume followed by
the western, eastern and southern regions. Industrial towns are similar to each other in consumer preferences
and socio-economic & demographic profiles. Most of them remain equally under-served despite recent mall
developments in the last couple of years.
The trend of investment in land is still nascent since lack of transparency and unclear national land acquisition
policy/rules makes it tough for the organized players/investors to transact. However this seems to be a very
interesting time to buy land which is being traded more as a commodity now. It is getting absorbed fast. Land
Land sees immense opportunity since it can be used as a tangible asset and is the most credible pledge against
business. With the growing commitment of the Government in improving infrastructure (roads, bridges,
airports, rail metros), in the last 5 years many far flung areas now have very good connectivity to the CBD
locations.
The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
17
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companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the
accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.
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their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any
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