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Agenda

• Globalisation

• Evolution of Globalisation
• Global Economic Status
• Emerging Markets
Globalisation
Globalisation
• At political and economic level, globalization is
the process of denationalization of markets,
politics and legal systems, i.e. the rise of Global
Economy.
• At business level, Globalisation is when
companies decide to take part in global economy
and establish themselves in foreign markets, by
most cost effective way of production and selling
in a profitable manner in a world without barriers.
Evolution of Globalisation
Evolution of Globalisation
Globalisation Challenge

• Creating a strategy to address the entire
spectrum of product, process, and resource
challenges faced by the organizations as they
introduce their products or services into global
markets.
• Review the domestic strategy to retain and
improve the competitive position
Globalisation Strategic
     Challenges
1. Look at the world as one market.
2. Make Global-minded decisions on strategic issues
   such as technology, product and capital resources.
3. Make Local-minded market decisions in packaging,
   advertising, distribution and management.
4. Give local management freedom for marketing and
   human resources.
5. Develop multi-cultural skills across the organisation.
6. Establish co-operative business dealings with supply
   chain partners.
Global Strategy Alternatives
  • Exporting – direct and indirect
  • Counter Trade
  • Turnkey projects
  • Licensing
  • Franchising
  • Joint Ventures
  • Direct Foreign Investment
The New Competitive Strategy of Global
      Alliances and Manufacturing Outsourcing
• Larger firms acquiring small competitors to form a global
  operating network that delivers:
    • Economies of scale
    • Outsourcing manufacturing process
    • Global distribution
    • Technology pooling including managerial talent
    • Global sourcing
• Flex, not fixed, manufacturing
• Outsourcing to free-lance manufacturing companies
• Joint ventures to utilise excess idle capacity
• Co-marketing
Geo-political and Geo-economic Strategy
• Global trade integration: a process in which nations
  economically and politically interdependent
  reciprocate on trade policy.
• Regional FTAs pull nations together to economically
  and politically to form a “virtual” nation.
• Weak manufacturers are exposed and become prey for
  takeovers and mergers.
• Global Rationalisation
• Invention and Innovation – foundations for global
  growth
Global Industry Structure
• High tech nations – Japan, USA, Western Europe –
  must excel at invention, innovation and marketing
• Low tech (labour intensive) nations – China, India,
  Indonesia, Mexico – offer a large affordable labour
  supply, strong work ethic and raising consumerism
• Economies of scale manufacturing (capital
   intensive) – Germany, Korea, Japan – Large size
   corporations
• Outsourced (flex) manufacturing – USA, Western
   Europe – Lead the world in FDI
Examples of recent International Mergers
    and Joint Ventures

• LaFarge (French building materials & cement supplier)
  bought Blue Circle Industries (UK’s largest cement firm)
   to form the world’s largest cement company
• Time Warner (USA) bought EMI (Britain)
   to become the world’s record company
• Toyota + GM JV to produce GM’s Onstar in-car
   communications system
Examples of recent International Mergers
    and Joint Ventures


• Glaxo Wellcome bought SmithKline Beecham (USA co.
  that now form the world’s largest drug company)
• Pfizer bought Warner-Lambert and American Home
   Products (all USA) to form the world’s second largest
   drug company
• Sears (USA) + Carrefour (France) JV to form
   the GlobalNetXchange, an internet system to link
   retailers and suppliers
Global Economic Data
Global Economic Activity – 2005
Country  GDP
        $billion
US        12410
China      8182
Japan      3914
India      3699
Germany    2454
UK         1869
France     1822
Italy      1651
Brazil     1568
Russia     1539
Mexico     1068
  GDP adjusted for PPP
Global Economic Activity – 2005
Country  GDP Agriculture Industry   Service
        $billion  %          %          %
US        12410       1.0      20.7       78.3
China      8182      14.4      53.1       32.5
Japan      3914       1.3      25.3       73.4
India      3699      20.6      28.1       51.4
Germany    2454       1.1      28.6       70.3
UK         1869       1.1      26.0       72.9
France     1822       2.5      21.4       76.1
Italy      1651       2.1      28.8       69.1
Brazil     1568      10.0      39.4       50.6
Russia     1539       5.0      65.0       60.0
Mexico     1068       4.0      26.5       69.5
  GDP adjusted for PPP
Global Economic Activity – 2005
Country  GDP      POP
        $billion Million
US        12410      298
China      8182     1314
Japan      3914      127
India      3699     1095
Germany    2454        82
UK         1869        61
France     1822        61
Italy      1651        58
Brazil     1568      188
Russia     1539      143
Mexico     1068      107
GDP adjusted for PPP
Global Economic Activity – 2005
Country  GDP      POP GDP per
        $billion Million capita $
US        12410      298    41644
China      8182    1314       6227
Japan      3914      127    30784
India      3699    1095       3378
Germany    2454        82   29782
UK         1869        61   30639
France     1822        61   29869
Italy      1651        58   28466
Brazil     1568      188      8340
Russia     1539      143    10762
Mexico     1068      107      9981
  GDP adjusted for PPP
Global Economic Activity – 2005
Country  GDP      POP     GDP per Export %Exp
        $billion Million capita $ $billion to GDP
US        12410      298    41644      928     7.48
China      8182     1314      6227     752     9.19
Japan      3914      127    30784      551    14.08
India      3699     1095      3378     100     2.70
Germany    2454        82   29782    1016     41.40
UK         1869        61   30639      694    37.13
France     1822        61   29869      443    24.31
Italy      1651        58   28466      372    22.53
Brazil     1568      188      8340     115     7.33
Russia     1539      143    10762      245    15.92
Mexico     1068      107      9981     214    20.04
  GDP adjusted for PPP
World Trade Merchandise - 2004
                                                             $billions
                                          E xp o rts         Im p o rts
                                              V a lu e           V a lu e
World                                               8907               9250
N o rth A m e ric a                                 13 2 4             2 0 13
La tin A m e ric a                                     276                237
We s te rn E u ro p e                               4031               4 14 0
C ./ E . E u ro p e / B a ltic S ta te s / C IS        449                268
A fric a                                               232                  2 12
M id d le E a s t                                      390                252
A s ia                                             2388               2224
Merchandise Trade 2004
Country         Export $ billion   Import $ billion
United States   819                1536
UK              347                464
Germany         912                717
France          449                466
Japan           566                455
Italy           349                351
China           593                561
India           76                 97
Russia          184                96
Mexico          189                206
Brazil          97                 66
World Trade Services - 2004
                                           $billions
                      E xp o rts           Im p o rts
                          V a lu e             V a lu e
World                           2125                 2095
N o rth A m e ric a                379                  335
La tin A m e ric a                   56                    58
E u ro p e                         112 6             10 2 5
A fric a                             48                    55
M id d le E a s t                    36                    41
A s ia                             450                    5 12
Ref: WTO
Services Trade 2004
Country         Export $ billion   Import $ billion
United States   318                260
UK              172                136
Germany         134                193
France          110                96
Japan           95                 134
Italy           82                 81
China           62                 72
India           40                 41
Russia          20                 33
Mexico          14                 19
Brazil          12                 16
Regional Trade - 2005
Region    Trade in    Population Trade per
          $billions   millions   capita in $
APEC      2200        2500       840
EU        1600        600        2667
NAFTA     700         450        1520
ASEAN     120         290        385
SAARC     5           1380       3.50
India – 04-05 Merchandise
               $billions
   Category      World       India     %
Agricultural           783      8.00   1.02
Mining                1281     11.00   0.86
Iron & steel           266      1.62   0.61
Chemicals              976      8.65   0.89
Engineering           3474     10.28   0.30
Textiles               195     10.64   5.46
Others                1932     25.81   1.34
Total                 8907     76.00   0.85
India – Trade 04-05 by Region

                           $billions
      Region      Exports Imports Trade
Americas             16.18        8.95 25.13
Europe & Russia      20.14       56.51 76.65
Asia& Oceania        37.57       37.90 75.47
Africa                5.36        3.67  9.03
Total                79.25     107.10 186.35
India – Trade 04-05 Merchandise
    Category           Exports    Imports
Agri/Com m oditie s        6.65       8.00
M ining                   11.00      36.30
Iron & s te e l            3.63       2.60
Che m icals               12.68       8.50
Engine e ring             14.59      23.60
Te xtile s                12.02       1.00
Ge m s & Je w e lle ry    13.70       9.42
Othe rs                    5.03      17.65
Total                     79.25     107.07
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets Growth Factors

Political Stability
Economic, Political, and Legal Reforms
Entrepreneurship
Central Planning with Outward Orientation
Factors of Production
Industries Targeted for Growth
Financial Incentives
Privatized State-Owned Enterprises
Large, Accessible Markets
Low Tariffs
Common Traits of Emerging Markets

 Are physically large.
 Have significant populations.
 Represent considerable markets for a wide
 range of products.
 Have strong rates or the potential for significant growth.
 Have undertaken significant programs or economic
 reform.
 Are of major political importance within their regions.
 Are "Regional Economic Drivers".
 Will engender further expansion in neighboring markets
 as they grow.
CHINA
CHINA
China
   Oldest continuous civilization
   Chinese society is founded on Confucianism
    ideology:
      Honesty

      Reciprocal honesty

      Trust in others

   Between the two world wars and China came
    under the influence of Japan
   After WW II, followed socialistic & communist
    principles
   After 1980, opened up the barrier and
    encouraged globalisaton
Religion in China
India & China

Competing giants                India    China
Population in billion         1.09      1.31
Population growth rate        1.38%     0.59%
GDP growth rate 1993-2004     8.4%      8.4%
FDI $ billion                 4.3       53.5
Foreign exchange reserve      160       795
$b
Fixed & mobile phones /1000   150       645
India & China
                             India   China
Liberalisation began         1990    1980
Per capita GDP $ PPP 1991    1090    1138
                             3400    6300


2005
Trade $ billion 2004         190     1383
Trade relative to GDP        3.78%   11.95%
Hiring & Firing:
Difficulty of Hiring Index   33      11
Difficulty of Firing Index   90      40
FDI Attractiveness
Description                    India China
Educated workforce             78% 22%
Rule of law                    73% 27%
Cultural barriers              66% 34%
Economic reform                40% 60%
Political & social stability   41% 59%
Production & labour costs      35% 65%
Market size                    6%   94%
China’s Reform Agenda

Restructure state enterprises. SOEs account for about
two-fifths of the industrial output but soak up four-fifths of
investment.
Sell state assets. Sell off all but 1,000 of China’s 305,000
state enterprises and allow some to go bankrupt.
Build social services. Create housing, pension programs,
and other services to relieve burdens on SOEs and to care
for millions who may lose jobs.
Slash tariffs. Reduce average tariffs to 17 percent in 1997
and to 15 percent by 2000 as part of China’s bid to join the
World Trade Organization.
RUSSIA
Russia
Russia
   Russia represents a complex and mysterious
    environment
   During 17th & 18th century Czars encouraged
    Western European influence including orthodox
    religion and culture, but resisted market forces and
    modernisation
   After Bolshevik Revolution and WW I, in 1917,
    Czars lost control and power rested with
    Communist party
   Lenin strengthened economy by concentrating on
    oil, steel and textile industries
RUSSIA - Rebuilding of a Super Power

• High price recovery for Russian oil, gas and
commodities
• Import substitution efforts after 1998 devaluation
• Market oriented restructuring
• Decline in real wages resulting in cost reduction
• Sound fiscal and monetary policies
• 1999-2002 GDP growth rate was 6.4, 10, 5 and 4.3 %
• Ruble has remained stable since 2001 (29.2-31.45/$)
• Real disposable income has risen by 9% every year
  since 1999
RUSSIA - Rebuilding of a Super Power


• High price recovery for Russian oil, gas and
commodities
• Import substitution efforts after 1998 devaluation
• Market oriented restructuring
• Decline in real wages resulting in cost reduction
• Sound fiscal and monetary policies
• 1999-2002 GDP growth rate was 6.4, 10, 5 and 4.3 %
• Ruble has remained stable since 2001 (29.2-31.45/$)
• Real disposable income has risen by 9% every year
  since 1999
BRAZIL
Brazil
    Discovered by Portuguese in 1500 and remained in their
    possession till 1822 when it became an independent
    monarchy
   Brazil has been a Republic since 1889
   Brazil is distinct in Latin America, in that it draws from
    Portuguese heritage unlike the other Spanish speaking
    countries
   Industrially, it is well advanced
   Leading producers of coffee, rubber, oranges and lumber
   Its ethanol for automobiles has reduced the dependence
    on oil
BRAZIL - Economic Progression

• The average tariff has come down from 32% in
  1990 to 14%
• No quantitative restrictions to imports
• Exports has touched $59 billion with trade surplus
  of $4 billion. 50% Trade with US and EU
• GDP contributions - Industry 20%, Agriculture 20%
  and Services 60%
• FDI has grown from $6 billion in 1995 to $30 billion
• FDI directed to massive privatisation of state owned
  enterprises
Useful Data
Infrastructure of Selected Countries
                               Highways*   Railways      Trucks       Electricity
                                  (km)       (km)      and Buses      Production
  Country                         (000)     (000)     in Use (000)   (million kwh)

 United States                    6,407      228        42,298        3,892,200
 Brazil                           1,725        29         2,450         387,500
 Japan                            1,177        24       22,694        1,017,273
 Colombia                          110          3         4,154          50,430
 Germany                           232         46         4,145         558,100
 Kenya                               64         3           110           4,342
 Mexico                            349         17         3,679         209,200
 Spain                             666         15         2,959         247,300
 India                            3,851        63         1,839         556,800
 South Africa                      362         21         1,597         215,900
 China                            1,810      71.9         4,927       2,190,000
*Includes unpaved and paved.
Living Standards in Selected Countries
                                               Percent of Households
                Households   Persons per   Piped       Flush      Electric
                   (000)     Household     Water      Toilers    Lighting


Brazil            38,434        4.05       73%          76%        69%
Chile               3,216       4.35       70%           59%       88%
China            357,064        3.40       90%            NA        NA
Colombia            8,482       4.14       76%           64%       87%
Ecuador             2,626       4.36       52%           33%       62%
Hong Kong           1,797       3.44       98%           80%       93%
India            185,048        5.00       10%            5%       16%
Indonesia          43,065       4.50       12%           15%       30%
Japan              40,548       3.09       93%           65%       98%
Peru                5,057       4.65       49%           43%       48%
Philippines        12,750       5.37        NA            NA        NA
Singapore             815       3.67       48%           42%       37%
South Africa       13,300       3.37       96%           35%       90%
United States    100,308        2.62       99%           99%       99%
Consumption Patterns in Selected Countries
     (percent of household expenditures)
                  U.S.   Germany Singapore   Mexico   Poland   Iran   Kenya Thailand India



Food              10%      12%      19%       35%     29%      37%     38%     30%    52%

Clothing          6%        7%       8%       10%      9%      9%       7%     16%    11%

Gross rent        18%      18%      11%        8%      6%      23%     12%      7%    10%

Medical care      14%      13%       7%        5%      6%      6%       3%      5%     3%

Education         8%        6%      12%        5%      7%      5%      10%      5%     4%

Transport/
 communications 14%        13%      13%       12%      8%      6%       8%     13%     7%

Appliances/
 other durables   30%      31%      30%       25%     35%      14%     22%     24%    13%
Emerging Market Companies
Country   Company                  Industry
          Embraer                  Aerospace
Brazil
          CVRD                     Mining
          Sadia                    Food & beverages
          Petrobras                Oil & Gas
          Techtronics Industries   Power Tools
China
          Huawei & ZTE             Telecom Services
          Haier & Hisense          Electronic Appliances
          Lenovo                   Computers
          CNOOC                    Oil & Gas
          China Mobile             Telecom Service
          Shanghai Bao Steell      Steel
Emerging Market Companies
Country        Company              Industry
               SabMiller            Beer
South Africa
               Orascom              Telecom Services
Egypt
               America Movil        Telecom Services
Mexico
               Cemex                Cement
               Gazprom              Oil & Gas
Russia
               Vist                 Computers
               Severstal            Steel
               MMC Norilsk Nickel   Non-ferrous metals

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Globalisation & emerging markets

  • 1. Agenda • Globalisation • Evolution of Globalisation • Global Economic Status • Emerging Markets
  • 3. Globalisation • At political and economic level, globalization is the process of denationalization of markets, politics and legal systems, i.e. the rise of Global Economy. • At business level, Globalisation is when companies decide to take part in global economy and establish themselves in foreign markets, by most cost effective way of production and selling in a profitable manner in a world without barriers.
  • 6. Globalisation Challenge • Creating a strategy to address the entire spectrum of product, process, and resource challenges faced by the organizations as they introduce their products or services into global markets. • Review the domestic strategy to retain and improve the competitive position
  • 7. Globalisation Strategic Challenges 1. Look at the world as one market. 2. Make Global-minded decisions on strategic issues such as technology, product and capital resources. 3. Make Local-minded market decisions in packaging, advertising, distribution and management. 4. Give local management freedom for marketing and human resources. 5. Develop multi-cultural skills across the organisation. 6. Establish co-operative business dealings with supply chain partners.
  • 8. Global Strategy Alternatives • Exporting – direct and indirect • Counter Trade • Turnkey projects • Licensing • Franchising • Joint Ventures • Direct Foreign Investment
  • 9. The New Competitive Strategy of Global Alliances and Manufacturing Outsourcing • Larger firms acquiring small competitors to form a global operating network that delivers: • Economies of scale • Outsourcing manufacturing process • Global distribution • Technology pooling including managerial talent • Global sourcing • Flex, not fixed, manufacturing • Outsourcing to free-lance manufacturing companies • Joint ventures to utilise excess idle capacity • Co-marketing
  • 10. Geo-political and Geo-economic Strategy • Global trade integration: a process in which nations economically and politically interdependent reciprocate on trade policy. • Regional FTAs pull nations together to economically and politically to form a “virtual” nation. • Weak manufacturers are exposed and become prey for takeovers and mergers. • Global Rationalisation • Invention and Innovation – foundations for global growth
  • 11. Global Industry Structure • High tech nations – Japan, USA, Western Europe – must excel at invention, innovation and marketing • Low tech (labour intensive) nations – China, India, Indonesia, Mexico – offer a large affordable labour supply, strong work ethic and raising consumerism • Economies of scale manufacturing (capital intensive) – Germany, Korea, Japan – Large size corporations • Outsourced (flex) manufacturing – USA, Western Europe – Lead the world in FDI
  • 12. Examples of recent International Mergers and Joint Ventures • LaFarge (French building materials & cement supplier) bought Blue Circle Industries (UK’s largest cement firm) to form the world’s largest cement company • Time Warner (USA) bought EMI (Britain) to become the world’s record company • Toyota + GM JV to produce GM’s Onstar in-car communications system
  • 13. Examples of recent International Mergers and Joint Ventures • Glaxo Wellcome bought SmithKline Beecham (USA co. that now form the world’s largest drug company) • Pfizer bought Warner-Lambert and American Home Products (all USA) to form the world’s second largest drug company • Sears (USA) + Carrefour (France) JV to form the GlobalNetXchange, an internet system to link retailers and suppliers
  • 15. Global Economic Activity – 2005 Country GDP $billion US 12410 China 8182 Japan 3914 India 3699 Germany 2454 UK 1869 France 1822 Italy 1651 Brazil 1568 Russia 1539 Mexico 1068 GDP adjusted for PPP
  • 16. Global Economic Activity – 2005 Country GDP Agriculture Industry Service $billion % % % US 12410 1.0 20.7 78.3 China 8182 14.4 53.1 32.5 Japan 3914 1.3 25.3 73.4 India 3699 20.6 28.1 51.4 Germany 2454 1.1 28.6 70.3 UK 1869 1.1 26.0 72.9 France 1822 2.5 21.4 76.1 Italy 1651 2.1 28.8 69.1 Brazil 1568 10.0 39.4 50.6 Russia 1539 5.0 65.0 60.0 Mexico 1068 4.0 26.5 69.5 GDP adjusted for PPP
  • 17. Global Economic Activity – 2005 Country GDP POP $billion Million US 12410 298 China 8182 1314 Japan 3914 127 India 3699 1095 Germany 2454 82 UK 1869 61 France 1822 61 Italy 1651 58 Brazil 1568 188 Russia 1539 143 Mexico 1068 107 GDP adjusted for PPP
  • 18. Global Economic Activity – 2005 Country GDP POP GDP per $billion Million capita $ US 12410 298 41644 China 8182 1314 6227 Japan 3914 127 30784 India 3699 1095 3378 Germany 2454 82 29782 UK 1869 61 30639 France 1822 61 29869 Italy 1651 58 28466 Brazil 1568 188 8340 Russia 1539 143 10762 Mexico 1068 107 9981 GDP adjusted for PPP
  • 19. Global Economic Activity – 2005 Country GDP POP GDP per Export %Exp $billion Million capita $ $billion to GDP US 12410 298 41644 928 7.48 China 8182 1314 6227 752 9.19 Japan 3914 127 30784 551 14.08 India 3699 1095 3378 100 2.70 Germany 2454 82 29782 1016 41.40 UK 1869 61 30639 694 37.13 France 1822 61 29869 443 24.31 Italy 1651 58 28466 372 22.53 Brazil 1568 188 8340 115 7.33 Russia 1539 143 10762 245 15.92 Mexico 1068 107 9981 214 20.04 GDP adjusted for PPP
  • 20. World Trade Merchandise - 2004 $billions E xp o rts Im p o rts V a lu e V a lu e World 8907 9250 N o rth A m e ric a 13 2 4 2 0 13 La tin A m e ric a 276 237 We s te rn E u ro p e 4031 4 14 0 C ./ E . E u ro p e / B a ltic S ta te s / C IS 449 268 A fric a 232 2 12 M id d le E a s t 390 252 A s ia 2388 2224
  • 21. Merchandise Trade 2004 Country Export $ billion Import $ billion United States 819 1536 UK 347 464 Germany 912 717 France 449 466 Japan 566 455 Italy 349 351 China 593 561 India 76 97 Russia 184 96 Mexico 189 206 Brazil 97 66
  • 22. World Trade Services - 2004 $billions E xp o rts Im p o rts V a lu e V a lu e World 2125 2095 N o rth A m e ric a 379 335 La tin A m e ric a 56 58 E u ro p e 112 6 10 2 5 A fric a 48 55 M id d le E a s t 36 41 A s ia 450 5 12 Ref: WTO
  • 23. Services Trade 2004 Country Export $ billion Import $ billion United States 318 260 UK 172 136 Germany 134 193 France 110 96 Japan 95 134 Italy 82 81 China 62 72 India 40 41 Russia 20 33 Mexico 14 19 Brazil 12 16
  • 24. Regional Trade - 2005 Region Trade in Population Trade per $billions millions capita in $ APEC 2200 2500 840 EU 1600 600 2667 NAFTA 700 450 1520 ASEAN 120 290 385 SAARC 5 1380 3.50
  • 25. India – 04-05 Merchandise $billions Category World India % Agricultural 783 8.00 1.02 Mining 1281 11.00 0.86 Iron & steel 266 1.62 0.61 Chemicals 976 8.65 0.89 Engineering 3474 10.28 0.30 Textiles 195 10.64 5.46 Others 1932 25.81 1.34 Total 8907 76.00 0.85
  • 26. India – Trade 04-05 by Region $billions Region Exports Imports Trade Americas 16.18 8.95 25.13 Europe & Russia 20.14 56.51 76.65 Asia& Oceania 37.57 37.90 75.47 Africa 5.36 3.67 9.03 Total 79.25 107.10 186.35
  • 27. India – Trade 04-05 Merchandise Category Exports Imports Agri/Com m oditie s 6.65 8.00 M ining 11.00 36.30 Iron & s te e l 3.63 2.60 Che m icals 12.68 8.50 Engine e ring 14.59 23.60 Te xtile s 12.02 1.00 Ge m s & Je w e lle ry 13.70 9.42 Othe rs 5.03 17.65 Total 79.25 107.07
  • 29. Emerging Markets Growth Factors Political Stability Economic, Political, and Legal Reforms Entrepreneurship Central Planning with Outward Orientation Factors of Production Industries Targeted for Growth Financial Incentives Privatized State-Owned Enterprises Large, Accessible Markets Low Tariffs
  • 30. Common Traits of Emerging Markets Are physically large. Have significant populations. Represent considerable markets for a wide range of products. Have strong rates or the potential for significant growth. Have undertaken significant programs or economic reform. Are of major political importance within their regions. Are "Regional Economic Drivers". Will engender further expansion in neighboring markets as they grow.
  • 31. CHINA
  • 32. CHINA
  • 33. China  Oldest continuous civilization  Chinese society is founded on Confucianism ideology:  Honesty  Reciprocal honesty  Trust in others  Between the two world wars and China came under the influence of Japan  After WW II, followed socialistic & communist principles  After 1980, opened up the barrier and encouraged globalisaton
  • 35. India & China Competing giants India China Population in billion 1.09 1.31 Population growth rate 1.38% 0.59% GDP growth rate 1993-2004 8.4% 8.4% FDI $ billion 4.3 53.5 Foreign exchange reserve 160 795 $b Fixed & mobile phones /1000 150 645
  • 36. India & China India China Liberalisation began 1990 1980 Per capita GDP $ PPP 1991 1090 1138 3400 6300 2005 Trade $ billion 2004 190 1383 Trade relative to GDP 3.78% 11.95% Hiring & Firing: Difficulty of Hiring Index 33 11 Difficulty of Firing Index 90 40
  • 37. FDI Attractiveness Description India China Educated workforce 78% 22% Rule of law 73% 27% Cultural barriers 66% 34% Economic reform 40% 60% Political & social stability 41% 59% Production & labour costs 35% 65% Market size 6% 94%
  • 38. China’s Reform Agenda Restructure state enterprises. SOEs account for about two-fifths of the industrial output but soak up four-fifths of investment. Sell state assets. Sell off all but 1,000 of China’s 305,000 state enterprises and allow some to go bankrupt. Build social services. Create housing, pension programs, and other services to relieve burdens on SOEs and to care for millions who may lose jobs. Slash tariffs. Reduce average tariffs to 17 percent in 1997 and to 15 percent by 2000 as part of China’s bid to join the World Trade Organization.
  • 41. Russia  Russia represents a complex and mysterious environment  During 17th & 18th century Czars encouraged Western European influence including orthodox religion and culture, but resisted market forces and modernisation  After Bolshevik Revolution and WW I, in 1917, Czars lost control and power rested with Communist party  Lenin strengthened economy by concentrating on oil, steel and textile industries
  • 42. RUSSIA - Rebuilding of a Super Power • High price recovery for Russian oil, gas and commodities • Import substitution efforts after 1998 devaluation • Market oriented restructuring • Decline in real wages resulting in cost reduction • Sound fiscal and monetary policies • 1999-2002 GDP growth rate was 6.4, 10, 5 and 4.3 % • Ruble has remained stable since 2001 (29.2-31.45/$) • Real disposable income has risen by 9% every year since 1999
  • 43. RUSSIA - Rebuilding of a Super Power • High price recovery for Russian oil, gas and commodities • Import substitution efforts after 1998 devaluation • Market oriented restructuring • Decline in real wages resulting in cost reduction • Sound fiscal and monetary policies • 1999-2002 GDP growth rate was 6.4, 10, 5 and 4.3 % • Ruble has remained stable since 2001 (29.2-31.45/$) • Real disposable income has risen by 9% every year since 1999
  • 45.
  • 46. Brazil  Discovered by Portuguese in 1500 and remained in their possession till 1822 when it became an independent monarchy  Brazil has been a Republic since 1889  Brazil is distinct in Latin America, in that it draws from Portuguese heritage unlike the other Spanish speaking countries  Industrially, it is well advanced  Leading producers of coffee, rubber, oranges and lumber  Its ethanol for automobiles has reduced the dependence on oil
  • 47. BRAZIL - Economic Progression • The average tariff has come down from 32% in 1990 to 14% • No quantitative restrictions to imports • Exports has touched $59 billion with trade surplus of $4 billion. 50% Trade with US and EU • GDP contributions - Industry 20%, Agriculture 20% and Services 60% • FDI has grown from $6 billion in 1995 to $30 billion • FDI directed to massive privatisation of state owned enterprises
  • 49. Infrastructure of Selected Countries Highways* Railways Trucks Electricity (km) (km) and Buses Production Country (000) (000) in Use (000) (million kwh) United States 6,407 228 42,298 3,892,200 Brazil 1,725 29 2,450 387,500 Japan 1,177 24 22,694 1,017,273 Colombia 110 3 4,154 50,430 Germany 232 46 4,145 558,100 Kenya 64 3 110 4,342 Mexico 349 17 3,679 209,200 Spain 666 15 2,959 247,300 India 3,851 63 1,839 556,800 South Africa 362 21 1,597 215,900 China 1,810 71.9 4,927 2,190,000 *Includes unpaved and paved.
  • 50. Living Standards in Selected Countries Percent of Households Households Persons per Piped Flush Electric (000) Household Water Toilers Lighting Brazil 38,434 4.05 73% 76% 69% Chile 3,216 4.35 70% 59% 88% China 357,064 3.40 90% NA NA Colombia 8,482 4.14 76% 64% 87% Ecuador 2,626 4.36 52% 33% 62% Hong Kong 1,797 3.44 98% 80% 93% India 185,048 5.00 10% 5% 16% Indonesia 43,065 4.50 12% 15% 30% Japan 40,548 3.09 93% 65% 98% Peru 5,057 4.65 49% 43% 48% Philippines 12,750 5.37 NA NA NA Singapore 815 3.67 48% 42% 37% South Africa 13,300 3.37 96% 35% 90% United States 100,308 2.62 99% 99% 99%
  • 51. Consumption Patterns in Selected Countries (percent of household expenditures) U.S. Germany Singapore Mexico Poland Iran Kenya Thailand India Food 10% 12% 19% 35% 29% 37% 38% 30% 52% Clothing 6% 7% 8% 10% 9% 9% 7% 16% 11% Gross rent 18% 18% 11% 8% 6% 23% 12% 7% 10% Medical care 14% 13% 7% 5% 6% 6% 3% 5% 3% Education 8% 6% 12% 5% 7% 5% 10% 5% 4% Transport/ communications 14% 13% 13% 12% 8% 6% 8% 13% 7% Appliances/ other durables 30% 31% 30% 25% 35% 14% 22% 24% 13%
  • 52. Emerging Market Companies Country Company Industry Embraer Aerospace Brazil CVRD Mining Sadia Food & beverages Petrobras Oil & Gas Techtronics Industries Power Tools China Huawei & ZTE Telecom Services Haier & Hisense Electronic Appliances Lenovo Computers CNOOC Oil & Gas China Mobile Telecom Service Shanghai Bao Steell Steel
  • 53. Emerging Market Companies Country Company Industry SabMiller Beer South Africa Orascom Telecom Services Egypt America Movil Telecom Services Mexico Cemex Cement Gazprom Oil & Gas Russia Vist Computers Severstal Steel MMC Norilsk Nickel Non-ferrous metals