3. The State of
Food Insecurity in the World
2003
monitoring progress
towards the World Food Summit and
Millennium Development Goals
4. About this report
his fifth edition of The State of Summit (WFS) in 1996 – to reduce that contains a special feature on international
T Food Insecurity in the World
(SOFI) provides the latest esti-
mates of the number of chroni-
cally hungry people in the world and
reports on global and national efforts to
number to half the level reported at the
time of the Summit by the year 2015.
The report is divided into four
main sections. The first, Undernourish-
ment around the world, analyses the
trade. The third, Towards the Summit
commitments, discusses approaches to
fulfilling the commitments in the WFS
Plan of Action. Finally, tables provide
detailed indicators for developing coun-
reach the goal set by the World Food latest data on hunger. The second tries and countries in transition.
Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping Systems
On behalf of the Inter-Agency Working Group on FIVIMS IAWG-FIVIMS membership
(IAWG-FIVIMS), I commend FAO on the 2003 edition of The
Bilateral aid and technical agencies
State of Food Insecurity in the World. This report has
Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID)
justifiably become a flagship report in the food security arena. Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)
Each year it clearly lays out how far we have come in achieving EuropeAid Co-operation Office (EuropeAid)
global food security and how far we still have to travel. German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ)
United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID)
Since FIVIMS was created in 1997 we have seen the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
emergence of the Millennium Development Goals process, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
the country Poverty Reduction Strategy papers and a new
United Nations and Bretton Woods agencies
emphasis on the progressive realization of the right to food, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
coupled with an increasingly shared vision of the causes International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)
of food insecurity and vulnerability within a livelihood International Labour Organization (ILO)
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA)
framework. Recognizing these changes, the FIVIMS Initiative Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
is currently examining what it has achieved and its strategic United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
priorities for going forward. The inter-agency nature of United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)
FIVIMS represents one of our greatest strengths – the ability
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
to coordinate information activities and to share relevant World Bank (WB)
experiences, approaches and methodologies. Building on a World Food Programme (WFP)
collaborative assessment of our past activities, and World Health Organization (WHO)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
consultations with many stakeholders, we will formulate a United Nations System Standing Committee on Nutrition (SCN)
new, forward-looking strategic plan. I look forward to sharing
the results of the assessment and strategic planning in the International agricultural research organizations
Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)
2004 issue of SOFI. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
I encourage all readers of SOFI to translate information International Service for National Agricultural Research (ISNAR)
into action. Use this report to shine a spotlight on food International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
insecurity and hunger; mobilize resources and political will in International non-governmental organizations
your constituency – global, national, and local – to meet the CARE
challenge. We must all play our part, and on behalf of FIVIMS Helen Keller International (HKI)
The Rockefeller Foundation
we commit ourselves to work in partnership with you to elimi- Save the Children Fund UK (SCFUK)
nate the scourge of hunger from our planet once and for all. World Resources Institute (WRI)
Regional organizations
Lynn R Brown (World Bank) Southern African Development Community (SADC)
Chair, IAWG-FIVIMS Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS)
2 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
5. Contents
4 Foreword
Towards the World Food Summit target
6 Undernourishment around the world
6 Counting the hungry: latest estimates
8 Counting the hungry: recent trends in developing countries
and countries in transition
10 Food insecurity and HIV/AIDS: when short-term emergencies
intersect a long-wave crisis
12 Water and food security
14 Hunger hotspots
16 Special feature – International trade and food security
16 Trade and food security: the importance of agriculture and
agricultural trade in developing countries
18 Trade and food security: does trade openness harm food security?
20 Trade and food security: issues of the Doha Round and beyond
22 Towards the World Food Summit commitments
22 Acting to combat hunger
24 Beyond irrigation: the multiple uses of water for improving both
diets and incomes
26 Mapping poverty and hunger to help wipe them off the map
28 Identifying the keys to sustainable nutrition programmes
30 The way ahead: mobilizing commitment and action to combat hunger
31 Tables
The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 3
6. Foreword
Towards the World Food Summit target
F
IRST SOME GOOD NEWS. FAO’s specifically by more rapid growth in their development goals. All of these goals
latest estimates show that a agricultural sectors. They also exhibited are interconnected through the fatal
number of countries have reduced slower population growth, lower levels nexus of poverty and social exclusion.
hunger steadily since the World Food of HIV infection and higher ranking in the Every one of them deserves and
Summit (WFS) baseline period of UNDP’s Human Development Index. demands our support. But we must
1990–1992. In 19 countries, the number These findings are consistent with also have the vision and the courage to
of chronically hungry people declined by previous analyses that helped shape set priorities, recognizing that lack of
over 80 million between 1990–1992 and the WFS Plan of Action and the anti- adequate food threatens people’s very
1999–2001. hunger initiative put forward by FAO existence and cripples their ability
The list of successful countries spans at the time of the World Food Summit: both to benefit from opportunities for
all developing regions, with one country five years later. They highlight the education, employment and political
in the Near East, five in Asia and the importance of a few key building blocks participation and to contribute to eco-
Pacific, six in Latin America and the in the foundation for improving food nomic and social development.
Caribbean and seven in Sub-Saharan security – rapid economic growth, better This brings us back to the need for
Africa. It includes both large and rela- than average growth in the agricultural political will. And it also brings us to
tively prosperous countries like Brazil sector and effective social safety nets to more of the good news in this year’s
and China, where levels of under- ensure that those who cannot produce report. For if we must report setbacks
nourishment were moderate at the or buy adequate food still get enough in reducing hunger, we can also report
outset, and smaller countries where to eat. that we have seen many encouraging
hunger was more widespread, such as If the latest data tend to confirm our signs of growing commitment to the
Chad, Guinea, Namibia and Sri Lanka. understanding of factors that contribute fight against hunger.
Now the bad news. Unfortunately, this to food security, they also confront us In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula
is not the situation in most other with another difficult question: if we da Silva has pledged to eradicate hunger
countries. Across the developing world already know the basic parameters of by the end of his four-year term. And he
as a whole, an estimated 798 million what needs to be done, why have we has backed up the pledge by launching
people were undernourished in 1999– allowed hundreds of millions of people the comprehensive Fome Zero (Zero
2001, only 19 million fewer than during to go hungry in a world that produces Hunger) Project.
the WFS baseline period. Worse yet, it more than enough food for every Over the past year, more than 20
appears that the number of under- woman, man and child? other countries have asked FAO to help
nourished people in the developing Bluntly stated, the problem is not so them design and carry out anti-hunger
world is no longer falling but climbing. much a lack of food as a lack of political programmes. Many of these countries
During the first half of the 1990s, the will. The vast majority of the world’s are relying entirely on their own re-
number of chronically hungry people hungry people live in rural areas of the sources and initiative to achieve the WFS
decreased by 37 million. Since 1995– developing world, far from the levers of goal within their own borders. Some
1997, however, the number has in- political power and beyond the range have committed themselves to more
creased by over 18 million. of vision of the media and the public in ambitious goals. The government of
We must ask ourselves why this has developed countries. Except when war Sierra Leone, for example, has set a bold
happened. Preliminary analysis does or a natural calamity briefly focuses target of eliminating hunger by the year
not permit any definitive answers to that global attention and compassion, little is 2007. At their recent summit in Maputo,
question. But closer examination does said and less is done to put an end to the Mozambique, the heads of state of the
identify several factors that differentiate suffering of a “continent of the hungry” African Union unanimously pledged to
the successful countries from those that whose 798 million people outnumber increase agriculture’s share of public
suffered setbacks. the population of either Latin America or expenditures to at least 10 percent
In general, countries that succeeded sub-Saharan Africa. within the next five years.
in reducing hunger were characterized Too often, eliminating hunger has The fact that these countries have
by more rapid economic growth and been relegated to a shopping list of made eradicating hunger a top priority
4 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
7. Number of undernourished in the developing world:
observed and projected ranges compared with the World Food Summit target
Millions Millions
1 000 1 000
900 900
800 800
Range around the point FAO estimates of the number
estimates reported at the
World Food Summit
of undernourished people in the
world are necessarily based on 700
Business
imperfect information. As better data as usual
Range for the year of the
World Food Summit (1996)
become available, the estimates are revised
retrospectively. Range estimates therefore 600
provide a more reliable illustration of the number of
Range around the “business as
usual” projection in World
undernourished over time. The estimated range for
agriculture: towards 2015/2030 past, projected and target paths is based on a range of
5 percent above and below the past, projected and target 500
numbers considered by the World Food Summit in 1996. Within On track
World Food Summit
target these ranges, the most recently calculated point estimates are shown.
The graph refers to developing countries only, because FAO does not 400
have estimates of the undernourished in developed countries for the
Point estimates prepared
in 2003 reference period (1990–1992) and earlier years.
300
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
is encouraging. The way they are going active support and participations of commitment, based not on a plea for
about it is even more so. unions, popular associations, non- charity but on a demand for justice and
The strategy adopted by Brazil’s governmental organizations, schools, an appeal to the self-interest of almost
Fome Zero incorporates many of the universities, churches and companies. everyone, recognizing that the suffering
elements in the anti-hunger initiative. A growing number of countries are of 800 million hungry people represents
Most importantly, it emphasizes a two- showing the way, mustering the political not only an unconscionable tragedy
pronged attack on hunger that combines will and the resources to attack the but a threat to economic growth and
emergency interventions to give hungry problem of hunger head on. Now it is political stability on a global scale.
people access to food with development time for the international community to Hunger cannot wait.
initiatives to increase employment, in- follow through on the commitments
comes and food production in impover- made at the World Food Summit.
ished communities. Fome Zero has also The task ahead of us is to create an
forged a broad and committed national international Alliance against Hunger Jacques Diouf
alliance against hunger, engaging the that will mobilize national and global FAO Director-General
The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 5
8. Undernourishment around the world
Counting the hungry: latest estimates
AO’S LATEST ESTIMATES signal a
F setback in the war against hunger.
The number of chronically hungry
people in developing countries declined
Improving the FAO estimate of prevalence of undernourishment
In estimating the prevalence of under- has reinforced its activities in several
by only 19 million between the World Food nourishment FAO takes into account the areas, including:
Summit (WFS) baseline period of 1990– amount of food available per person • expanding use of the FAO methodology
1992 and 1999–2001. This means that the nationally and the extent of inequality in to measure the extent of food depri-
WFS goal of reducing the number of access to food. vation at subnational levels, such as
undernourished people by half by the year An International Scientific Symposium urban and rural areas;
2015 can now be reached only if annual on Measurement of Food Deprivation • reconciling estimates of national food
reductions can be accelerated to 26 million and Undernutrition held in 2002 consumption from food balance sheets
per year, more than 12 times the pace of concluded that the method used by FAO and household surveys;
2.1 million per year achieved to date. is the only way currently available to • analysing trends in the inequality of
Analysis of more recent trends makes arrive at global and regional estimates access to food;
the prospects look even bleaker. From of the prevalence of undernourishment. • reviewing the minimum energy require-
1995–1997 to 1999–2001 the number of The Symposium also called for efforts ments used to define food deprivation
undernourished actually increased by 18 to improve both the data and the in light of new recommendations from
million (see page 8 for details and analysis). analytical approach used to derive these an FAO/WHO/UNU Expert consultation;
Worldwide, FAO estimates that 842 estimates. and
million people were undernourished in In response to the Symposium’s re- • integrating analysis of trends in food
1999–2001. This includes 10 million in the commendations, FAO’s Statistics Division deprivation and nutritional status.
industrialized countries, 34 million in
countries in transition and 798 million in
developing countries. At the regional level, These numbers and trends are domi- has been reduced. At the same time, India
the numbers of undernourished were nated by progress and setbacks in a few has shifted into reverse. After seeing a
reduced in Asia and the Pacific and in Latin large countries. China alone has reduced decline of 20 million in the number of
America and the Caribbean. In contrast, the number of hungry people by 58 million undernourished between 1990–1992 and
the numbers continue to rise in Sub- since the World Food Summit baseline 1995–1997, the number of hungry people in
Saharan Africa and in the Near East and period. But progress in China has slowed India increased by 19 million over the
North Africa. as the prevalence of undernourishment following four years.
Proportions of undernourished in developing countries, 1990–1992 and 1999–2001
2.5% undernourished 2.5–4% undernourished 5–19% undernourished
80
60
40
20
0
United Arab Emirates
Tunisia
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Argentina
Rep. of Korea
Hong Kong SAR of China
Malaysia
Turkey
Lebanon
Saudi Arabia
Egypt
Uruguay
Syrian Arab Rep.
Kuwait
Chile
Ecuador
Mauritius
Mexico
Iran, Islamic Rep. of
Trinidad and Tobago
Algeria
Costa Rica
Jordan
Indonesia
Myanmar
Gabon
Morocco
Namibia
Nigeria
Brazil
Jamaica
Mauritania
China*
Suriname
Cuba
Peru
Swaziland
Ghana
Colombia
Paraguay
El Salvador
Côte d'Ivoire
Venezuela
Pakistan
Thailand
Guyana
Benin
Nepal
Burkina Faso
Uganda
Viet Nam
%
* includes Taiwan Province of China
** estimates of the proportion of undernourished for 1999–2001 are not available; estimates for
1998–2000 published in SOFI 2002 were used instead
6 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
9. Undernourished 1999–2001 (millions) Number and proportion of undernourished, 1999–2001
Countries in Industrialized Proportion of undernourished (%) Number of undernourished (millions)
transition 34 countries 10 China*
Near East and Other East Asia
North Africa 41 India Southeast Asia
214 India
Other South Asia
Latin America North America
and Caribbean Central America
53 Caribbean
China* South America
Sub-Saharan 135 Near East
Africa 198 North Africa
Asia and the Central Africa
Source: FAO
Pacific** 156 East Africa * includes Taiwan
Southern Africa Province of China
* includes Taiwan Province of China West Africa
** excl. China and India Source: FAO 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 50 100 150 200 250
Impact of China and India on trends Changes in numbers of undernourished in developing subregions
Number of undernourished (millions) 1990–1992 to 1995–1997 (millions) 1995–1997 to 1999–2001 (millions)
China*
800 India Reduction
All developing Southeast Asia
South America (progress)
Developing countries countries
West Africa
excl. China* North Africa Increase
600 North America (setback)
Central America
Developing countries excl. India Caribbean
Southern Africa
Developing countries excl. China* and Other East Asia
India Other South Asia
400 Near East
1990–1992 1995–1997 1999–2001 East Africa * includes Taiwan
Central Africa Province of China
* includes Taiwan Province of China Source: FAO –50 –40 –30 –20 –10 0 10 20 –20 –10 0 10 20 Source: FAO
Grey bars: 1990–1992 Coloured bars: 1999–2001 Countries grouped by prevalence of undernourishment in 1999–2001
20–34% undernourished 35% undernourished
80
60
40
20
0
Lao People’s Dem. Rep.
Dem. People's Rep. of Korea
Tanzania, United Rep. of
Honduras
Central African Rep.
India
Mali
Bolivia
Philippines
Botswana
Senegal
Sri Lanka
Dominican Rep.
Sudan
Togo
Lesotho
Guatemala
Panama
Iraq**
Gambia
Cameroon
Papua New Guinea
Guinea
Nicaragua
Congo
Bangladesh
Malawi
Yemen
Chad
Niger
Madagascar
Mongolia
Kenya
Cambodia
Zimbabwe
Rwanda
Liberia
Ethiopia***
Angola
Haiti
Zambia
Sierra Leone
Congo, Dem. Rep. of
Mozambique
Eritrea***
Afghanistan**
Burundi
Somalia**
%
Source: FAO
*** Ethiopia and Eritrea were not separate entities in 1990–1992
The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 7
10. Undernourishment around the world
Counting the hungry: recent trends in developing
countries and countries in transition
ITH THE SLOW PACE of
W progress achieved since 1990–
1992, prospects for reaching
the World Food Summit goal of halving
Analysing the keys to progress and reversals in reducing hunger
In attempting to analyse the factors that successful countries also exhibited more
the number of hungry people by 2015 fuel progress in reducing hunger, a rapid agricultural growth (3.3 percent per
appear increasingly remote. Closer combination of six indicators proved most year compared to only 1.4 percent for
analysis reveals that these numbers successful at differentiating among the countries where hunger increased
mask an even more alarming trend. If countries grouped according to their throughout the decade), lower rates of
the nine-year period is divided in half, performance between 1990–1992 and HIV infection, slower population growth
figures for the developing countries as 1999–2001. These indicators include and far fewer food emergencies.
a whole indicate that the number of population growth, GDP growth per
undernourished people has actually person, health expenditure as a pro-
increased by 4.5 million per year during portion of GDP, the proportion of adults Trends in undernourishment and
the most recent subperiod from 1995– infected with HIV, the number of food GDP, by country grouping
1997 to 1999–2001. emergencies and the UNDP’s Human
Data from individual countries show Development Index (itself a composite of Undernourishment:
Decreased in both
that only 19 countries succeeded in many economic and social indicators). subperiods
reducing the number of under- In the countries that succeeded in Increased then
nourished during both subperiods. In reducing hunger throughout the nine- decreased
Decreased then
these successful countries, the total year period, GDP per capita grew at an increased
number of hungry people fell by over 80 annual rate of 2.6 percent – more than five Increased in both
subperiods
million over the full nine-year period times higher than the rate in countries
0 1 2 3
(see graph below). where undernourishment increased in Average annual growth
At the other end of the scale are 26 both subperiods (0.5 percent). The most Source: FAO in GDP per capita (%)
countries where the number of under-
nourished increased in both subperiods.
In most of these countries, the preva- number of hungry people in these contributed to success in some coun-
lence of undernourishment was already countries increased by almost 60 million. tries and setbacks in others. Not
high (greater than 20 percent) in Preliminary analysis (see box) sug- surprisingly, the countries that suc-
1990–1992. Over the next nine years, the gests a number of factors that may have ceeded in reducing hunger in both sub-
Recent trends in undernourishment, by country groupings
Number of undernourished (millions)
300 17 countries experienced a decrease in the Including India, Pakistan, Sudan, Colombia,
number of undernourished, followed by an Indonesia, Nigeria
250 increase
19 countries experienced a decrease over the Including China, Viet Nam, Thailand, Sri
200 entire period Lanka, Peru, Brazil, Ghana, Namibia
150 26 countries experienced an increase over the Including Afghanistan, Dem. Rep. of Congo,
entire period Yemen, Philippines, Liberia, Kenya, Iraq
100 22 countries experienced an increase followed Including Bangladesh, Cambodia, Haiti,
by a decrease Nicaragua, Mozambique, Uganda
0
1990–1992 1995–1997 1999–2001 Source: FAO
8 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
11. periods also exhibited significantly Undernourishment rising in many
higher economic growth. Countries countries in transition Number and proportion of
where the number of hungry people undernourished
increased, on the other hand, expe- FAO’s first analysis of the changes that
All countries
rienced more food emergencies and have occurred since the break-up of in transition
higher rates of HIV infection. the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia shows
CIS
Not all of the news that emerges that hunger is increasing in many of
Baltic
from this analysis is bad. Twenty-two the countries in transition. Overall, the States
countries, including Bangladesh, Haiti number of undernourished people in Eastern
and Mozambique, succeeded in turn- the countries in transition grew from 25 Europe
ing the tide against hunger, at least to 34 million between 1993–1995 and 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 10 20 30
Proportion (%) Number (millions)
temporarily. In these countries, the 1999–2001. These estimates must be
number of undernourished declined regarded as provisional, as implemen- 1993–1995 1999–2001
Source: FAO
during the second half of the decade tation of household sample surveys to
after rising through the first five years. replace the data obtained from admini-
In 17 other countries, however, the strative records in the centrally planned cultural production and marketing
trend shifted in the opposite direction system is still at an early stage. systems have broken down.
and the number of undernourished Nearly all of the increases in The Baltic States and East European
people, which had been falling, began undernourishment took place in the countries have largely avoided these
to rise. This group includes a number Commonwealth of Independent States problems. In most of these countries,
of countries with large populations, (CIS), where the number of hungry the prevalence of undernourishment
among them India, Indonesia, Nigeria, people rose from 20.6 to 28.8 million has decreased or remained stable. This
Pakistan and Sudan. and the proportion increased from 7 to has not been the case, however, in
At the same time, progress has 10 percent. Economic transition has Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria,
slowed in many of the countries that had been accompanied by far-reaching Latvia, the Former Yugoslav Republic
scored dramatic gains during the first political and administrative changes of Macedonia, and Serbia and
five-year subperiod, including China. that have disrupted trade and exchange Montenegro, where the prevalence of
Having reduced the prevalence of relations and led to severe foreign undernourishment either rose or was
undernourishment to moderate levels exchange shortages. In addition, agri- still significant in 1999–2001.
(below 20 percent), these countries can
no longer be expected to propel pro-
gress for the developing world. Proportions of undernourished in countries Grey bars: 1993–1995
in transition Coloured bars: 1999–2001
With reversals in many large coun-
tries and progress slowing in others, the Proportion of population undernourished
pattern of change in the developing 2.5% 2.5–4% 5–19% 20–34% 35%
80
countries as a whole shifted from a
declining to a rising trend. Between 60
1995–1997 and 1999–2001, the number
40
of hungry people in the developing
countries increased by 18 million, 20
wiping out almost half the decrease of
0
37 million achieved during the previous
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Lithuania
Slovenia
Czech Rep.
Belarus
Ukraine
Russian Fed.
Albania
Estonia
Slovakia
Latvia
Turkmenistan
Kyrgyzstan
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Serbia and Montenegro
TFYR Macedonia
Croatia
Rep. of Moldova
Bulgaria
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Georgia
Armenia
Tajikistan
five years. Unless significant gains are
made in large countries where progress
has stalled, it will be difficult to reverse
this negative trend.
Source: FAO
The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 9
12. Undernourishment around the world
Food insecurity and HIV/AIDS: when short-term
emergencies intersect a long-wave crisis
S
INCE THE HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIC droughts, failed economic policies and AIDS erodes food security
began, 25 million people have died civil strife. Its impact was compounded
of the disease. Another 42 million by the devastating AIDS epidemic that HIV/AIDS causes and exacerbates food
are now infected with HIV. During this had already shattered millions of insecurity in many ways. Most of its
decade, AIDS is expected to claim more families, undermined the food sector and victims are young adults who fall ill and
lives than all the wars and disasters of weakened the capacity of governments die during what should be their peak
the past 50 years. to respond. In 2001 alone, the year before productive years. They leave behind a
The food crisis that threatened more the crisis hit, nearly half a million people population overbalanced with the elderly
than 14 million people in southern Africa in the affected countries died of AIDS, and young, many of them orphans (see
in 2002–2003 brought into sharp focus orphaning an estimated 2.5 million graph). The impact on farm production
the interactions between HIV/AIDS and children. and food security is often devastating.
food security. It demonstrated that Governments and international By the year 2020, the epidemic will
hunger cannot be combated effectively organizations responded quickly to have claimed one-fifth or more of the
in regions ravaged by AIDS, unless inter- deploy emergency food aid. But reports agricultural labour force in most
ventions address the particular needs from the field warned that they were southern African countries (see graph).
of AIDS-affected households and incor- facing a new kind of emergency, in Already, in several affected countries, 60
porate measures both to prevent and to which severe short-term food short- to 70 percent of farms have suffered
mitigate the spread of HIV/AIDS. ages overlap an unprecedented collapse labour losses as a result of HIV/AIDS. In
of health, agricultural production and some severely affected areas, studies
HIV/AIDS and food crises: a chronic food security that will endure for have found that more than half of all
double emergency? decades. The AIDS epidemic is driven households are headed by women (30
by a slow-acting virus, with an epidemic percent, mostly widows), grandparents
The southern African food crisis was curve that stretches well into the century (nearly 20 percent) and orphaned chil-
triggered by a combination of recurring (see graph). dren (almost 5 percent). Lacking the
labour, resources and know-how to
grow staple and commercial crops, many
HIV infections, AIDS deaths and Projected population with and households have shifted to cultivating
non-AIDS deaths, South Africa without AIDS, Botswana, 2020
Millions Age in years Projected labour losses due to
1.0
80
HIV/AIDS, southern Africa
70 males females
0.8 Botswana
60
0.6 50 Malawi
40 Mozambique
0.4 30
Namibia
20
0.2 10 South Africa
0 Tanzania,
0.0 United Rep. of
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 140 100 60 20 20 60 100 140
Population (thousands) Zimbabwe
Annual AIDS deaths 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
New infections Projected population Projected agricultural labour force
Annual non-AIDS deaths Deficits due to HIV/AIDS losses as a result of HIV/AIDS (%)
1985–2000 2000–2020
Source: Dorrington and Johnson Source: US Census Bureau Source: FAO
10 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
13. survival foods. Others have abandoned seriously hamper economic and social For people who have already been
their fields entirely. A study of communal development. Recent estimates indicate infected with HIV, hunger and malnu-
agriculture in Zimbabwe found that that the pandemic has already reduced trition increase susceptibility to oppor-
maize production fell by 61 percent in national economic growth rates across tunistic infections, leading to an earlier
households that suffered an AIDS- Africa by 2 to 4 percent a year. Data also onset of full-blown AIDS. Once the
related death (see graph). suggest that undernourishment has disease takes hold, nutrient absorption
And the impact will continue to be felt continued to climb in countries where is reduced, appetite and metabolism are
for generations to come. AIDS dimin- HIV/AIDS was already widespread in disrupted and muscles, organs and
ishes investment in agriculture. It strips 1991, while declining elsewhere in sub- other tissues waste away. People living
households of assets as they are forced Saharan Africa (see graph). with HIV/AIDS need to eat considerably
to sell off what little they have to pay for more food to fight the illness, counteract
medical and funeral expenses, or simply Hunger fuels AIDS epidemic weight loss and extend a productive life.
to survive. It forces children, particularly
girls, to withdraw from school to work or While HIV/AIDS has become a major Food security helps prevent AIDS
care for ill parents, and it cuts off the cause of hunger, the reverse is also true.
transfer of essential skills and know- Hunger accelerates both the spread of As the crisis in southern Africa has
ledge from one generation to the next. the virus and the course of the disease. shown, food security interventions must
In two districts in Kenya affected by Hungry people are driven to adopt risky be planned with an “HIV/AIDS lens”.
AIDS, a study found that only 7 percent strategies to survive. Frequently they are Traditional food aid safety nets are not
of orphans heading farm households forced to migrate, often to urban slums sufficient and may prove ineffective.
had adequate agricultural knowledge. where HIV infection rates are high. In Families that have lost key productive
UNAIDS projects that between 2000 desperation, women and children barter members may not be able to participate
and 2020, 55 million Africans will die sex for money and food, exposing them- in “food for work” projects, commonly
earlier than they would have in the selves to the risk of infection. used as a way to provide emergency food
absence of AIDS – a total equivalent to in exchange for labour on public works
the entire population of Italy. This projects. To recover and achieve a degree
unprecedented human catastrophe will Undernourishment and HIV/ of self-sufficiency, they need both food
AIDS, sub-Saharan Africa assistance and agricultural development
programmes that address their needs
Production decrease in households % of population undernourished
by emphasizing nutritious crops that
with an AIDS death, Zimbabwe 40 require less labour, diversification that
spreads labour requirements and har-
35 vests more evenly throughout the year,
Maize and education and training for orphaned
30
Cotton
children and adolescents.
25 Incorporating HIV prevention, nutri-
Vegetables 1979–1981 1990–1992 1999–2001 tional care for people living with HIV/
Groundnuts AIDS and AIDS mitigation measures into
Average prevalence of undernourishment
food security and nutrition programmes
Cattle Countries in sub-Saharan Africa
can help reduce the spread and impact
100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100 with HIV prevalence 5% in 1991
% of pre-AIDS production
of HIV/AIDS. Indeed, when short-term
All countries in sub-Saharan food emergencies intersect the long-
Africa
Decline in production wave HIV/AIDS crisis, household food
Remaining production Countries in sub-Saharan Africa security is likely to be the single most
with HIV prevalence 5% in 1991
important HIV prevention strategy and
Source: Kwaramba in Stover et al Source: WHO; FAO
AIDS mitigation response.
The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 11
14. Undernourishment around the world
Water and food security
W
ATER AND FOOD SECURITY drought was listed as a cause in 60 per- Irrigation increases yields while
are closely related. Agriculture cent of food emergencies (see graph). reducing hunger and poverty
is by far the biggest user of Africa is both the driest continent
water, accounting for about 69 percent (other than Oceania) and the region By ensuring an adequate and reliable
of all withdrawals worldwide and over 80 where hunger is most prevalent. Within supply of water, irrigation increases
percent in developing countries. Reliable Africa, undernourishment and periodic yields of most crops by 100 to 400
access to adequate water increases famines have afflicted semi-arid and percent (see graph). Although only 17
agricultural yields, providing more food drought-prone areas (see map). percent of global cropland is irrigated,
and higher incomes in the rural areas Even where overall water availability that 17 percent produces 40 percent of
that are home to three-quarters of the is adequate, erratic rainfall and access to the world’s food.
world’s hungry people. Not surprisingly, water can cause both short-term food Along with higher yields, irrigation
countries with better access to water shortages and long-term food insecurity. increases incomes and reduces hunger
also tend to have lower levels of under- Floods are another major cause of food and poverty. Data show that where
nourishment (see graph). emergencies. Sharp seasonal differ- irrigation is widely available, under-
If water is a key ingredient in food ences in water availability can also nourishment and poverty are less
security, lack of it can be a major cause increase food insecurity. In India, for prevalent (see graph).
of famine and undernourishment, par- example, more than 70 percent of annual Ongoing studies in Asian countries
ticularly in food-insecure rural areas rainfall occurs during the three months provide evidence that irrigation alleviates
where people depend on local agricul- of the monsoon, when most of it floods both permanent and temporary poverty.
ture for both food and income. Drought out to sea. Farmers who lack irrigation In India, for example, a World Bank study
ranks as the single most common cause facilities must contend with water found that 69 percent of people in non-
of severe food shortages in developing scarcity through much of the year and irrigated districts are poor, but only 26
countries. For the three most recent with the threat of crop failures when the percent in irrigated districts.
years for which data are available, monsoons fail. Farmers benefit directly from irri-
Access to water and food security Drought and famine in Africa, 1971–2001
(developing countries and countries in transition)
% of people with access to food Drought has been the
100 most common cause of
food emergencies and
has contributed to
80 several famines in
Africa over the past
60 30 years.
Main areas affected by
40 famine, 1971–2001
Millions of people affected by
drought, 1971–2001
20 5
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Water index*
* A composite indicator that incorporates measures of water resources Ethiopia
(from rainfall, river flows and aquifer recharge), access, environmental 57
issues (water quality) and pressure on resources.
10 10 5 1 0.1 0.1
Source: FAO, CEH Wallingford Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal
12 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
15. Causes of food emergencies in Yields and water requirements of Irrigation and prevalence of
developing countries irrigated and rainfed agriculture undernourishment, 1998–2000
% of food emergencies* Cereal production (‘000 kg/ha)
80 South Asia
8
60 6 East and
Southeast Asia
40
4
Near East and
20
2 North Africa
0
2000 2001 2002 Latin America
0 and Caribbean
1 000 3 000 5 000 7 000
Flood Refugees** Water used (m3/ha) Sub-Saharan
Drought Economic problems Irrigated crops, high yield varieties, Africa
high inputs
Conflict Other Irrigated crops, low inputs 0 10 20 30 40
* Total exceeds 100% because of multiple Rainfed crops, high inputs % of cultivated area irrigated
causes and cited for many emergencies
** Includes internally displaced people Rainfed crops, low inputs % of total population undernourished
Source: FAO Source: FAO Source: FAO
gation through increased and more That, in turn, will depend on increased 270 million hectares of irrigated land
stable incomes and the higher value of use of irrigation and improved water have been degraded by the accumulation
irrigated land. Even landless labourers management, even as a growing number of salts. In many areas, water is being
and small farmers who lack the of countries face water shortages. pumped out of the ground for irrigation
resources to employ irrigation them- FAO expects the irrigated area in far faster than it can be replenished by
selves often benefit through higher developing countries as a whole to rainwater percolating through the soil.
wages, lower food prices and a more expand by almost 20 percent by the In China, where more than half of the
varied diet. Studies in Bangladesh and year 2030. By using irrigation water irrigated lands rely on tubewells, water
India have shown that every job created more efficiently and taking advantage tables have fallen by up to 50 metres
in irrigated agriculture yields another of opportunities to grow several crops over the past 30 years.
job in agricultural services and the a year on irrigated land, FAO estimates Where water is scarce and the environ-
processing industry. Irrigation has the that the effective irrigated area can be ment fragile, achieving food security may
greatest impact on reducing hunger increased by 34 percent while using only depend on what has been called “virtual
when it is labour-intensive, employs 14 percent more water. The largest water” – foods imported from countries
affordable, small-scale techniques and is increase (44 percent) is expected in sub- with an abundance of water. It takes
combined with access to credit, market- Saharan Africa, where only 4 percent of 1 cubic metre of water to produce
ing and agricultural extension services. arable land is irrigated today. 1 kilogram of wheat. Extrapolating from
Large-scale irrigation is not always those numbers, FAO calculated that to
Looking to the future a viable or desirable option. In some grow the amount of food imported by
areas, including much of Africa, rainfall Near Eastern countries in 1994 would
Over the next 30 years, the world’s patterns and the geology of river basins have required as much water as the total
population is expected to grow by preclude cost-effective irrigation. In annual flow of the Nile at Aswan. In such
2 billion people. Feeding this growing others, poorly managed irrigation and conditions, it may make sense to import
population and reducing hunger will only overextraction of groundwater threaten food and use limited water resources for
be possible if agricultural yields can be sustainability and food security. An other purposes, including growing high-
increased significantly and sustainably. estimated 7 to 10 percent of the world’s value crops for export.
The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 13
16. Undernourishment around the world
Hunger hotspots
A
S OF JULY 2003, 36 countries
around the world faced serious
food emergencies requiring in- Countries facing food emergencies in 2003
ternational food assistance. The causes
of these food shortages are varied and
complex. The locations, as indicated on
the map, are painfully familiar. All the
countries affected in 2003 had experi-
enced food emergencies for at least
two consecutive years. Many had been
plagued by severe food shortages for a
decade or longer.
In southern Africa, food production
has started to recover from the severe
drought that reduced harvests by as Location and duration of current food emergencies
(consecutive years including 2003)
much as 50 percent in 2001/2002. But
several countries in the region still face No food emergencies 9–11 years
2–4 years 12–14 years
severe shortages and all must contend 5–8 years 15 years Source: FAO
with the long-term impact of the HIV/
AIDS pandemic (see pages 10–11).
Further to the north, pre-famine con- lems were cited as the main cause of during more than half the years of the
ditions have been reported in Eritrea more than 35 percent of food emer- 17-year period between 1986 and 2003.
and parts of Ethiopia, where crops have gencies during 1992–2003 (see graph). Many conflict-induced complex emer-
withered, livestock are dying from lack The recurrence and persistence of gencies are persistent and turn into
of water and grazing, and millions of emergencies highlights a number of long-term crises. Eight countries suf-
people need emergency food aid. countries that could be considered as fered emergencies during 15 or more
Several Asian countries have also “food emergency hotspots”. Thirty-three years during 1986–2003. War or civil
been facing the effects of harsh countries experienced food emergencies strife was a major factor in all eight.
weather, including drought and unusu-
ally cold, snowy winters in Mongolia.
Although drought and other natural Main causes of food emergencies, Frequency of food emergencies
disasters remain the most common 1986–1991 and 1992–2003 in affected countries, 1986–2003
causes of food emergencies, an in-
creasing proportion are now human- Number of years
Human-induced with emergency
induced. In several countries in Central (mainly conflict)
and West Africa, civil strife has dis- 1–3 years
rupted both food production and access Natural
to food. (mainly drought) 4–6 years
Even developments in international
Mixed 7–10 years
commodity markets can trigger food
crises in countries that depend heavily 10 years
on agricultural exports or food imports. 0 20 40 60 80
Percent 0 10 20 30 40
The collapse of coffee prices has been a 1986–1991
Number of countries
major cause of increased food insecurity 1992–2003
in Central America.
Source: FAO Source: FAO
Overall, conflict and economic prob-
14 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
17. Droughts take heavy toll on livestock
herding communities
Where the pastoralists are: livestock-only, rangeland farming areas
Two consecutive years of severe drought
have decimated both crop and livestock Pastoral farming systems, in which people’s livelihoods depend almost entirely on
production in Mauritania, triggering a livestock, extend across rangelands in all developing regions.
food emergency. In a country where less
than 1 percent of the land can sustain
crops, livestock accounts for 70 percent
of agricultural production and 15 percent
of national GDP. But lack of water has
forced herders to sell or slaughter many
of their animals. Distress sales sent
prices plummeting by more than 50
percent in one year.
On the other side of the globe, several
years of drought and harsh winters
Arid/semi-arid
have devastated livestock production in
Humid/subhumid
Mongolia. Unusually heavy snowfall in Temperate, tropical highland Source: ILRI
2003 killed up to 2.5 million animals,
undermining the livelihood of nearly a
quarter of the country’s population. An disease. And they are coming under of its harshest environments. They also
estimated 80 percent of Mongolians, increasing pressure as human popula- highlight the need for emergency pre-
many of them nomadic herders, raise tions increase and grazing areas shrink. vention and rehabilitation programmes
livestock, accounting for almost 90 per- In Afghanistan, three consecutive to respond to the particular needs of
cent of agricultural output. years of severe drought (1999–2001) led livestock owners.
The food crises in Mauritania and to massive distress sales and deaths of Early warning systems have had
Mongolia highlight the vulnerability of animals that reduced the livestock popu- difficulties detecting the impact of
traditional pastoral production systems, lation by nearly 60 percent. Most noma- drought on pastoralists and providing
particularly nomadic systems that are dic Kuchis lost almost their entire herds. the information needed to help them
the main source of food and income In Eritrea, the worst drought in dec- cope and recover. Pastoral communities
in semi-arid rangelands ill suited to ades caused livestock losses as high as typically need different kinds of aid over
growing crops. 10 to 20 percent in some areas in 2002. longer periods than farmers who rely
Globally, an estimated 675 million The same drought also struck neigh- mainly on crops. When rains return after
rural poor people depend on livestock for bouring Ethiopia, which has one of the a drought, for example, farmers may
some or all of their subsistence. Other largest livestock populations in Africa. require little more than seeds, fertilizer
estimates suggest that as many as 70 The eastern pastoral areas of Afar and and one successful cropping season to
percent of the rural poor are livestock Somali were hardest hit. Acute short- get back on their feet. But pastoralists
owners. That figure includes nearly 200 ages of water and fodder caused losses may need several years of assistance
million pastoralists and more than 100 of up to 40 percent for cattle and 10 to 15 to weather the crisis, replenish their
million landless livestock keepers in percent for goats and sheep. Livestock breeding stock and rebuild the herds
mixed farming regions who depend prices fell by up to 50 percent. that represent both their livelihoods
almost exclusively on livestock. These emergencies underline the fact and their life savings. In the long term,
Their animals and livelihoods are that traditional livestock production alternatives must be found for those
highly vulnerable to droughts and floods, systems sustain some of the world’s whose livelihoods can no longer be sus-
resource degradation and outbreaks of most vulnerable communities in some tained by nomadic herding.
The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 15
18. Special feature
Trade and food security: the importance of agriculture
and agricultural trade in developing countries
I
NTERNATIONAL TRADE can have a factors in determining economic per- countries where hunger is most
major impact on reducing hunger formance. Such factors include natural widespread. In countries where more
and poverty in developing countries. resource endowments and the size, than 34 percent of the population are
Participation in trade allows access skills and training of the workforce, as undernourished, agriculture represents
to larger markets and opens up well as policies and institutions. 30 percent of GDP, and nearly 70 per-
opportunities for specialization in Indeed, while there is broad agree- cent of the people rely on agriculture for
production and economies of scale. ment that openness to international their livelihoods (see graphs).
This can be of special importance for trade is a fundamental component of a Today, 75 percent of poor people live
developing countries, particularly for policy mix that can foster economic in rural areas, and increases in urban
smaller ones where the limited size of growth, it is also recognized that, on poverty tend to be fuelled by people
domestic markets discourages full use its own, openness to trade is unlikely migrating to the cities to escape rural
of production potential. to lead to major improvements in a deprivation. No sustainable reduction
At the same time, trade provides country’s economic performance. Nor in poverty is possible without improving
access to better and cheaper supplies can it be a substitute for development livelihoods in rural areas.
(including food imports) and may policies specifically aimed at reducing Economic growth originating in
stimulate flows of technology and poverty and hunger. agriculture can have a particularly
investment. To the extent that inter- strong impact in reducing poverty and
national trade spurs broad-based The critical role of agriculture hunger. Increasing employment and
economic growth, expanded partici- incomes in agriculture stimulates
pation in world markets can contribute Agriculture and agricultural trade play demand for non-agricultural goods
to improvements in household food a particularly important role in both and services, providing a boost to non-
security. the national economies and the food farm rural incomes as well. A recent
But increased openness to inter- security of developing countries. study in five countries in sub-Saharan
national trade has its costs. It may Throughout the developing world, Africa showed that adding US$1.00
gradually redistribute world production agriculture accounts for around 9 to farm incomes potentially increases
according to countries’ comparative percent of GDP and more than half of total income – beyond the initial
advantage. Inevitably this means that in total employment. But its relative US$1.00 – by between US$0.96 and
some countries certain industries may importance is far greater in those US$1.88.
shrink, either absolutely or relative to
others, as cheaper imports become
available. The resulting changes in the Agricultural GDP and Agricultural employment and
production structure and reallocation undernourishment, 1996–2000 undernourishment, 1996–2000
of resources may have a negative
impact on food security, at least in the % of population undernourished % of population undernourished
short term. Unemployment may rise, 2.5 2.5
some productive sectors in agriculture
may decline, and the food system may 2.5–4 2.5–4
become increasingly concentrated,
5–19 5–19
shutting out small-scale farmers and
firms. 20–34 20–34
Overall, countries that are more
35 35
involved in trade tend to enjoy higher
rates of economic growth. But growth 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Agricultural GDP as a share of Agricultural employment as a share
rates diverge widely for countries with total GDP (%) of total employment (%)
comparable levels of trade activity, Source: FAO
Source: FAO
highlighting the importance of other
16 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
