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Capital Markets Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Feb 7, 2011
Thai Stock Market                                Feb 04           Change         US Market                                Feb 04             Change
SET Index                                        984.78              +4.18       Dow Jones                             12,092.15                 +29.89
Market Turnover (Bt mn)                      32,716.36         +17,432.88        Nasdaq                                 2,769.30                 +15.42
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn)                   +279.10            +317.14        S&P 500                                1,310.87                   +3.77
Thai Bond Market                                 Feb 04           Change         US 10 yr T-note (%)                         3.64                  +9 bp
Total Return Index                               200.53              -0.10       US 2yr T-note (%)                           0.75                  +3 bp
Total Market Turnover (Bt mn)                                                    NYMEX crude ($/b)                         89.03                    -1.51
Change (bp)               1m        3m         6m        1yr           2yr         3yr       5yr        7yr       10yr       12yr        14yr        18yr
Feb 04 (%)               2.04      2.12      2.29       2.58          2.96        3.22      3.40       3.62       3.85       4.04        4.15        4.21
Change (bp)                 0         0           0         0            0           0         0          0          0           0          0           0
Interbank Rates           Feb 07       Feb 03              BIBOR             1w          1m          2m         3m        6m           9m         1yr
Overnight (%)               2.25    1.950-2.270            Feb 04         2.26250      2.29016 2.35125 2.40250 2.51891 2.58500 2.68750
Repurchase Rates           1-day          7-day            14-day              1m             SIBOR          1m               3m               6m
Feb 04                    2.25000        2.25000               -                -             Feb 02       0.27100         0.30900           0.46550
THBFIX (Ref.)        1m          2m        3m          6m          9m          1yr            LIBOR          1m               3m               6m
Feb 04             1.11442     1.09532 1.24071 1.52322 1.81692               2.02724          Feb 04       0.26275         0.31150           0.46125
SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore)                   1yr              2yr               3yr              4yr             5yr              7yr              10yr
Feb 07        Bid/Ask                 2.00/2.05        2.75/2.80         3.22/3.27       3.52/3.57        3.76/3.81       4.08/4.13         4.30/4.35
KBank Counter Rates                                 Buying                                Selling                  Premium/Discount (stgs/m)
(against THB)                         Sight Bill                 T/T                         T/T                             Export/Import
USD                                     30.58                  30.68                       30.93                                 0.50/3.24
EUR                                    41.4813                41.6163                     42.1425                               -0.91/2.11
GBP                                    49.1800                49.3400                     49.9300                                0.10/2.74
JPY                                    0.3700                 0.3713                       0.3780                                0.32/4.66
KBank Technical Analysis                    Feb 07            Feb 04           Support        Resistance         Trend                 Strategy
THB (Onshore)                                30.81             30.77             30.75           30.90          Sideway        Buy USD near support
JPY                                           82.2             82.17             81.80           82.60          Sideway        Buy USD near support
EUR/USD                                     1.3617            1.3585            1.3520           1.3640         Sideway       Sell EUR near resistance




                                                                                      Macro and Market Outlook
                   •    U.S. non-farm payrolls disappointed on Friday with the actual figure showing an increase of only
                        36,000 jobs in January, when the market was expecting a 145,000 job increase
                   •    Yet, unemployment rate dropped to 9.0% from 9.4% in December as the labor force fell, a
                        possible indication of remaining discouraged workers


                                                                                                      FX Market Wrap
                    •   EUR/USD closed lower to 1.356 as the dollar gained strength after ECB showed no hurry to
                        raise interest rate last Thursday and U.S. unemployment rate fell. USD/JPY also rose by 0.75%
                        to settle above 82.00 due to the broad rebound of the greenback
                    •   USD/THB closed lower to 30.77 amid light volume trade. Asian currencies were mixed as
                        several financial markets remained closed for Chinese New Year holiday


                                                                                          Economic News Update
                   •    Egypt’s political crisis poses a risk to oil prices and will “impact” the Indian central bank’s
                        actions, Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn said


                    Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721)
                   via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours


                                www.twitter.com/KBankFX                                     www.facebook.com/KBankFX




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 7, 2011

                                                                                                                                 financial markets could be limited for the near term as
                  Macro and Market Outlook                                                                                       economic data continued to show strong growth.
    U.S. non-farm payrolls disappointed on Friday with the
    actual figure showing an increase of only 36,000 jobs in                                                                     This week – U.S economic data is rather light, with the
    January, when the market was expecting a 145,000 job                                                                         key focus likely to be weekly jobless claims on Thursday,
    increase (December 121K). Nevertheless, unemployment                                                                         and two other releases on Friday – the international trade
    rate dropped to 9.0% from 9.4% in December. The private                                                                      data and consumer sentiment index.
    sector had added 50K jobs for the month while the
    manufacturing sector took up an increase of 49K. Hourly
    wage increase rose 0.4% mom in January after a gain of                                                                                 US Treasuries and Thai rates
    0.2% in December while average weekly hours remained
    unchanged near 34.2 hours.
     '000
                                                                                                                                 Treasury yields were about two basis points away from a
                                              US Non-farm payrolls                                         %                     nine-month high as the U.S. prepared to sell $72 billion of
         600                                                                                               11
                                                                                                                                 debt this week starting tomorrow.
         400                                                                                               10
         200                                                                                               9                     The difference between 2- and 10-year rates widened to
           0                                                                                                                     the most in almost a year as economists said reports this
                                                                                                           8
        -200
        -400
                                                                                                           7                     week will show consumer confidence climbed and initial
        -600                                                                                               6                     claims for jobless benefits fell. An unexpected decline in
        -800                                                                                               5                     the U.S. jobless rate in January spurred speculation
       -1000                                                                                             4                       employment will improve in 2011.
            Jan-08          Jul-08        Jan-09          Jul-09        Jan-10        Jul-10       Jan-11
                                                                                                                                 Benchmark 10-year notes yielded 3.64 percent as of 9:47
                                  increase in Non-farm payrolls           Unemployment rate                                      a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data.
                                                                                                                                 The spread between 2- and 10-year yields increased to as
    Economic data from the U.S. last week were mostly                                                                            much as 2.93 percentage points today, the widest since
    positive, lending support to the dollar and the stock market.                                                                Feb. 18 last year. (Source: Bloomberg)
    The Labor Department’s report was, however, rather
    mixed. The 9.0% jobless rate was from the U.S. household                                                                      S&P Index                                                                                              (bp)
    survey that showed a drop of 504K in labor force, likely to                                                                   1350                                                                                                    300
    signal that there remained a substantial number of                                                                            1300                                                                                                   280
    discouraged workers. However, there was also an increase                                                                      1250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         260
    of 117K job among the households.                                                                                             1200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         240
       600                                                                                               14500                    1150
                                                                                                         14000                                                                                                                           220
       580                                                                                                                        1100
                                                                                                         13500                    1050                                                                                                   200
       560
                                                                                                         13000
                                                                                                                                  1000                                                                                                   180
       540                                                                                               12500
                                                                                                                                     Sep-10             Oct-10           Nov-10            Dec-10            Jan-11           Feb-11
       520                                                                                               12000
                                                                                                         11500                                                    S&P Index                  2-10 Spread (bps, RHS)
       500
                                                                                                         11000
       480                                                                                               10500
       460                                                                                               10000
         Sep-10             Oct-10          Nov-10            Dec-10             Jan-11         Feb-11                           Thai interest rate: Bond yields were little changed on
                                                                                                                                 Friday and the 2-10 spread was at 91bp. Last week, bond
                  MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan Index (LHS)                Dow Jones Industrial Average (RHS)
                                                                                                                                 yields remained in range trade – external factors were the
                                                                                                                                 key factors affecting the market sentiment while domestic
                                                                                                                                                                                  th
    Egypt’s political scene remained in a confrontational mode                                                                   factors were few (next MPC meeting on March 9 ). At the
    but impact on international stock market had been limited                                                                    same time, the consumer price inflation was showed to
    so far. A prolonged turmoil may continue to affect oil prices                                                                have stayed put at 3.0% on Tuesday, reducing some
    but the market will also anticipate some comments from                                                                       concerns about rising inflation.
    OPEC nations going forward, especially as global demand
    continues to expand.
       1100                                                                                                28                       bp                                Government bond yield change                                       %

       1000                                                                                                29                        5                                                                                                   4.5
                                                                                                           30                        4
         900                                                                                                                         3                                                                                                   4.0
                                                                                                           31
         800                                                                                               32                        2                                                                                                   3.5
                                                                                                                                     1
         700                                                                                               33
                                                                                                                                     0                                                                                                   3.0
         600                                                                                               34                       -1
                                                                                                           35                       -2                                                                                                   2.5
         500
                                                                                                           36                       -3
         400                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2.0
                                                                                                           37                       -4
         300                                                                                               38                       -5                                                                               1.5
           Jan-08                       Jan-09                         Jan-10                     Jan-11                                  0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 20.0 yrs
                                  SET index (left axis)              USD/THB (inverted right axis)                                                      Spread (left axis)               4-Feb-11                28-Jan-11


    At the same time, Thailand’s political risks (both locally and
    with Cambodia) have increased, not boding well for both
    the local stock market and the strength of the Thai baht
    against other currencies. Nevertheless, impacts on the


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 7, 2011

                                             FX Wrap                                                                                                                    Currency Movement
                                                                                                                                                                  Fri 04-Feb-11              Thu 03-Feb-11                  % Change
       1.42
       1.40                                                                                                                              USD/THB                       30.77                      30.82                        -0.16
       1.38                                                                                                                              USD/JPY                       82.20                      81.59                       +0.75
       1.36                                                                                                                             EUR/USD                        1.356                      1.363                        -0.54
       1.34
                                                                                                                                        GBP/USD                       1.6096                     1.6137                        -0.25
       1.32
       1.30                                                                                                                              USD/CHF                      0.9584                     0.9455                       +1.36
       1.28                                                                                                                             USD/SGD                       1.2745                     1.2740                       +0.04
       1.26                                                                                                                             USD/TWD                        29.04                      29.03                       +0.03
          Aug-10          Sep-10          Oct-10       Nov-10         Dec-10         Jan-11         Feb-11
                                                                                                                                        USD/KRW                      1,114.3                     1,113.6                      +0.06
                                                            EUR/USD
                                                                                                                                         USD/PHP                       43.71                      43.78                        -0.16
                                                                                                                                         USD/IDR                       8,950                      9,020                        -0.78
    EUR/USD closed lower to 1.356 as the dollar gained
    strength after ECB showed no hurry to raise interest rate                                                                           USD/MYR                        3.045                      3.042                       +0.10
    last Thursday and U.S. unemployment rate fell. The                                                                                  USD/CNY                        6.561                      6.556                       +0.08
    rebound of the dollar also led several other major                                                                             Source: Reuters
    currencies weaker on Friday. USD/JPY also rose by                                                                                                                .FX Consensus Forecast
    0.75% to settle above 82.00 due to the broad rebound of                                                                                                             Spot                          Jun 2011                Dec 2011
    the greenback. At the same time, the rise of U.S. Treasury
    yields had also been a contributing factor. The market is                                                                           USD/THB                        30.83                                -                   29.00
    expecting U.S. data this week to continue showing positive                                                                          USD/JPY                        82.20                            86.00                   89.00
    signs in the economy, boosting long-term yields.
                                                                                                                                        EUR/USD                         1.36                             1.30                    1.30
       38.50                                                                                               80
                                                                                                                                        GBP/USD                         1.61                             1.55                    1.60
       38.00                                                                                               81
                                                                                                                                        USD/CNY                         6.58                             6.45                    6.29
       37.50
                                                                                                           82
       37.00                                                                                                                            USD/SGD                         1.27                             1.27                    1.23
                                                                                                           83
       36.50                                                                                                                             USD/IDR                       8,973                            8,900                   8,825
                                                                                                           84
       36.00                                                                                                                            USD/MYR                         3.04                             3.03                    2.97
       35.50                                                                                               85
                                                                                                                                        USD/PHP                        43.67                            42.80                   41.50
       35.00                                                                                               86
                                                                                                                                        USD/KRW                        1,106                            1,090                   1,050
            1-Dec               16-Dec             31-Dec              15-Jan             30-Jan
                                                                                                                                        USD/TWD                        28.99                            29.05                   28.55
                                 JPY/THB (LHS)                  USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis)
                                                                                                                                        AUD/USD                         1.01                             0.99                    0.98
    USD/THB closed lower to 30.77 amid light volume trade.
    Asian currencies were mixed as several financial markets                                                                            NZD/USD                         0.77                             0.77                    0.75
                                                                                                                                   Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB
    remained closed for Chinese New Year holiday. We expect
    this week’s regional stock market to offer more insights into                                                                                                      Currency Pair Targets
    what investors think about the strength of Asian growth,                                                                                                                   Spot                  Jun 2011                 Dec 2011
    especially after last week’s political turmoil in Egypt.
                                                                                                                                             USD/THB                           30.82                       -                     29.0
       31.30                                                                                                                                 EUR/THB                           41.97                    40.0                     37.0
       31.10
       30.90
                                                                                                                                             JPY/THB                           37.51                   34.70                     29.5
       30.70                                                                                                                                 GBP/THB                           49.67                   47.40                     43.7
       30.50
       30.30
                                                                                                                                             CNY/THB                           4.68                     4.78                      4.2
       30.10                                                                                                                                 AUD/THB                           31.23                    27.4                     26.0
       29.90
       29.70                                                                                                                                 CHF/THB                           32.33                    29.6                     27.7
                                                                                                                                   Source: KBank, Bloomberg
       29.50
            1-Dec                16-Dec              31-Dec               15-Jan              30-Jan
                                                                                                                                 KBank NEER Index
                                                            USD/THB
                                                                                                                                 Current                                                                         97.74
                                                                                                                                 YTD                                                                            + 4.96%
                                                                                                                                 vs 52 weeks ago                                                                + 3.79%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1mth ago                                                                    - 2.99%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 week ago                                                                  + 0.10%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 day ago                                                                   + 0.18%
                                                                                                                                 vs long term average                                                           + 9.88%
                                                                                                                                 Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
                                                                                                                                 rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
                                                                                                                                 competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 7, 2011

         Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized                                                                                                           Auction results of BoT Bonds                                                                                        Feb 04
    Yield shift (bps)         -40       -30            -20          -10              0               +10         +20             +30          +40                                                                                                                                         Bid-
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Tenor              Amt.                      Accepted
         LB113A               2.07      2.09           2.12         2.14           2.17              2.19        2.21            2.24         2.01                     Symbol                                                                                            Avg. Yield (%) coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)            (Bt mn)                    Range (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ratio
           LB116A             2.66      2.57           2.49         2.40           2.31              2.22        2.13            2.04         1.70
                                                                                                                                                                       CB11222A                          0.04              80,000                     2.040/2.114          2.091900       1.12
          LB11NA              3.56      3.30           3.04         2.78           2.52              2.25        1.99            1.73         1.22
                                                                                                                                                                       Source: ThaiBMA
           LB123A             4.18      3.81           3.45         3.08           2.72              2.35        1.99            1.62         1.01
                                                                                                                                                                       Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds
          LB12NA              5.33      4.72           4.12         3.51           2.90              2.30        1.69            1.09         0.23
           LB133A             5.99      5.26           4.52         3.79           3.06              2.32        1.59            0.86        -0.13                                                       Tenor              Amt.
                                                                                                                                                                       Symbol                                                                     Auction Date           Maturity Date Remark
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB137A             6.56      5.71           4.85         3.99           3.14              2.28        1.43            0.57        -0.54
          LB13OA              7.00      6.05           5.10         4.14           3.19              2.24        1.29            0.34        -0.86                     CB11310C                          0.08              25,000                     08-Feb-11            11-Mar-11       -
           LB143A             7.36      6.34           5.33         4.31           3.29              2.28        1.26            0.25        -1.02                     CB11512B                          0.25              22,000                     08-Feb-11           12-May-11        -
           LB145A             7.91      6.77           5.63         4.49           3.35              2.21        1.07            -0.07 -1.46                           CB118011A                         0.50              15,000                     08-Feb-11            11-Aug-11       -
           LB145B             7.91      6.77           5.63         4.49           3.35              2.21        1.07            -0.07 -1.46                           BOT142A                           3.00              15,000                     11-Feb-11            15-Feb-14       -
          LB14DA              8.71      7.38           6.06         4.73           3.40              2.08        0.75            -0.58 -2.15                           BOT132A                           2.00              30,000                     15-Feb-11            17-Feb-13
           LB155A             9.48      7.96           6.45         4.94           3.42              1.91        0.40            -1.12 -2.88                           BOT152A                           4.00              15,000                     22-Feb-11            24-Feb-15       -
           LB157A             9.34      7.86           6.39         4.91           3.44              1.97        0.49            -0.98 -2.71                           Source: ThaiBMA
          LB15DA              10.31 8.59               6.87         5.15           3.43              1.71       -0.01 -1.73 -3.70
                                                                                                                                                                       Auction Calendar of Government Bonds
           LB167A             10.93 9.08               7.23         5.38           3.53              1.69       -0.16 -2.01 -4.10
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Tenor              Amt.
          LB16NA              11.48 9.50               7.53         5.55           3.57              1.59       -0.38 -2.36 -4.58                                      Symbol                                                                     Auction Date           Maturity Date Remark
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB171A             11.56 9.57               7.59         5.60           3.62              1.64       -0.34 -2.33 -4.56
                                                                                                                                                                       LB15DA                            5.32              10,000                     09-Feb-11            11-Dec-15       -
           LB175A             12.08 9.97               7.86         5.75           3.64              1.53       -0.58 -2.69 -5.04
                                                                                                                                                                       LB416A                            30.65             5,000                      16-Feb-11            14-Jun-41       -
           LB183A             13.16 10.79 8.41                      6.04           3.67              1.30       -1.07 -3.43 -6.05
           LB183B             12.86 10.56 8.27                      5.97           3.67              1.38       -0.92 -3.21 -5.76                                      LB25DA                            15.05             8,000                      23-Feb-11            12-Dec-25       -
           LB191A             13.84 11.30 8.77                      6.23           3.70              1.17       -1.37 -3.90 -6.68                                      Source: ThaiBMA
           LB196A             14.78 12.01 9.24                      6.47           3.70              0.93       -1.83 -4.60 -7.61
           LB198A             14.61 11.90 9.19                      6.48           3.77              1.07       -1.64 -4.35 -7.30
          LB19DA              14.90 12.13 9.36                      6.59           3.82              1.05       -1.71 -4.48 -7.49
                                                                                                                                                                       * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months
           LB213A             16.04 13.00 9.97                      6.94           3.91              0.88       -2.15 -5.17 -8.45                                      during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury
           LB214A             15.92 12.93 9.94                      6.94           3.95              0.96       -2.02 -5.01 -8.25                                      cash balance.
          LB22NA              18.02 14.53 11.04 7.56                               4.07              0.59       -2.89 -6.37 -10.10
           LB233A             18.07 14.58 11.08 7.59                               4.10              0.61       -2.88 -6.36 -10.10
           LB236A             19.53 15.68 11.82 7.97                               4.12              0.27       -3.57 -7.42 -11.51
           LB244A             19.65 15.77 11.90 8.03                               4.16              0.29       -3.57 -7.44 -11.55
          LB24DA              20.26 16.24 12.22 8.21                               4.19              0.18       -3.83 -7.84 -12.09
           LB267A             20.76 16.62 12.49 8.35                               4.22              0.09       -4.03 -8.16 -12.53
           LB283A             22.01 17.56 13.12 8.68                               4.25          -0.18 -4.61 -9.04 -13.72
           LB296A             23.72 18.85 13.98 9.12                               4.26          -0.59 -5.44 -10.29 -15.39
           LB383A             27.94 22.04 16.13 10.24 4.34                                       -1.54 -7.43 -13.30 -19.43
           LB396A             29.28 23.04 16.81 10.58 4.36                                       -1.86 -8.07 -14.27 -20.72
          Average             12.97 10.62 8.27                      5.92           3.58              1.23       -1.11 -3.46 -6.05
    Source: KBank, Bloomberg



            KBank Rich – Cheap Model
                                    30.00

                                    20.00

                                    10.00

                                     0.00

                                   -10.00

                                   -20.00

                                   -30.00                                                                                                                                                                                                             3 mth avg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Now
                                   -40.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       LB296A
                                              LB113A

                                                        LB116A
                                                                 LB11NA

                                                                          LB123A

                                                                                   LB133A
                                                                                            LB137A

                                                                                                      LB145B

                                                                                                               LB14DA
                                                                                                                        LB155A

                                                                                                                                 LB15DA

                                                                                                                                          LB167A
                                                                                                                                                   LB16NA

                                                                                                                                                            LB175A

                                                                                                                                                                     LB183B
                                                                                                                                                                              LB191A

                                                                                                                                                                                       LB196A

                                                                                                                                                                                                LB198A
                                                                                                                                                                                                         LB19DA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LB213A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           LB24DA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    LB267A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             LB283A


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                LB396A




            Source: Bloomberg, KBank                                                                                        The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 7, 2011

                      Economic News Update
    Egypt Crisis to ‘Impact’ India Central
    Bank Actions, Gokarn Says: Egypt’s political
    crisis poses a risk to oil prices and will “impact” the Indian
    central bank’s actions, Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn
    said.

     “A whole set of events unfolded in the Middle East which
    are starting to have an impact on oil prices and that is
    something which we didn’t anticipate at the time of making
    the policy announcement on Jan. 25,” Gokarn said
    yesterday in Dabolim, in the western Indian state of Goa. “It
    is going to have an impact on our thinking, on our actions
    going forward.”

    India, which meets about three-quarters of its annual
    energy needs from imports, is bracing for the economic
    impact of anti-government protests in Egypt. Oil prices
    could more than double if the unrest in Egypt forces the
    closure of the Suez Canal, Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael
    Ramirez said Feb. 4.

    The Reserve Bank of India last month increased its key
    repurchase rate for the seventh time in a year, boosting the
    measure by a quarter of a percentage point to 6.5 percent,
    to rein in inflation.

    Protests demanding an end to President Hosni Mubarak’s
    30- year rule erupted Jan. 25 in Cairo and have left as
    many as 300 people dead, according to the United Nations.
    Concern that turmoil in Egypt could force the closure of the
    Suez Canal, halting crude shipments through the crucial
    waterway, sent North Sea Brent crude oil prices above
    $100 a barrel for the first time since October 2008 last
    week.

    About 2.5 percent of world oil output moves through Egypt
    via the waterway and the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline,
    according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

    Egyptian    Vice    President     Omar     Suleiman    and
    representatives from the nation’s opposition groups agreed
    yesterday to conclude studying amendments to the
    constitution by the first week of March, following
    demonstrations that led Mubarak to announce he would
    step down.

    India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said Feb. 4 the
    nation needs to urgently contain prices, that are rising at
    the fastest pace among major economies in Asia, as
    inflation poses a “serious threat to the growth momentum.”

    India’s benchmark wholesale-price inflation accelerated to
    8.43 percent in December, from 7.48 percent in the
    previous month, due to higher costs of food and oil.
    (Source: Bloomberg)


                                                                                                                                                            Market Strategists:
                                                                                                                                                            Nalin Chutchotitham
                                                                                                                                                            Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
                                                                                                                                                            Tel: 02-470-3235




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 7, 2011

                                                                                                       Economic Calendar
          Date / Time                   Country                                       Event                                      Period            Consensus                  Actual                  Prior                 Revised
                                                            Reserve Bank Quarterly Monetary Policy
       02/04/2011 07:30                      AU             Statement
       02/04/2011 08:00                      PH             Consumer Price Index (YoY)                                             JAN                  3.30%                  3.50%                  3.00%                      --
       02/04/2011 08:00                      PH             Consumer Price Index NSA (MoM)                                         JAN                  0.50%                  0.80%                  0.50%                      --
       02/04/2011 13:07                      ID             Bank Indonesia Reference Rate                                        Feb-04                 6.50%                  6.75%                  6.50%                      --
       02/04/2011 14:30                      TH             Forward Contracts                                                    Jan-28                    --                  $19.0B                $18.4B                      --
       02/04/2011 14:30                      TH             Foreign Reserves                                                     Jan-28                    --                 $174.0B               $174.4B                      --

       02/04/2011 15:00                      UK             Halifax House Prices sa (MoM)                                          JAN                  -0.30%                 0.80%                 -1.30%                   -1.10%
       02/04/2011 15:00                      UK             Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year                                         JAN                  -3.00%                 -2.40%                -1.60%                      --
       02/04/2011 15:57                      UK             New Car Registrations (YoY)                                            JAN                     --                 -11.50%               -18.00%                      --
                                                            Istat Releases the New Consumer Prices'
       02/04/2011 16:00                       IT            Basket and Methodology
       02/04/2011 17:00                       IT            CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM)                                         JAN P                 0.30%                  0.40%                  0.40%                      --
       02/04/2011 17:00                       IT            CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY)                                         JAN P                 2.00%                  2.10%                  1.90%                      --
       02/04/2011 17:00                       IT            CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM)                                             JAN P                 -1.30%                 -1.20%                 0.40%                      --
       02/04/2011 17:00                       IT            CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY)                                             JAN P                 2.20%                  2.40%                  2.10%                      --
       02/04/2011 17:23                      ID             Consumer Confidence Index                                              JAN                     --                   113.9                 109.3                      --
       02/04/2011 19:00                      CA             Unemployment Rate                                                      JAN                  7.60%                  7.80%                  7.60%                      --
       02/04/2011 19:00                      CA             Net Change in Employment                                               JAN                   15.0K                 69.2K                  22.0K                      --
       02/04/2011 19:00                      CA             Full Time Employment Change                                            JAN                     --                   31.1                    38                      40.5
       02/04/2011 19:00                      CA             Part Time Employment Change                                            JAN                     --                     38                   -16.1                    -9.9
       02/04/2011 19:00                      CA             Participation Rate                                                     JAN                     67                     67                   66.9                     66.7
       02/04/2011 20:30                      US             Change in Nonfarm Payrolls                                             JAN                   146K                    36K                   103K                    121K
       02/04/2011 20:30                      US             Change in Private Payrolls                                             JAN                   145K                    50K                   113K                    139K
       02/04/2011 20:30                      US             Change in Manufact. Payrolls                                           JAN                    10K                    49K                   10K                      14K
       02/04/2011 20:30                      US             Unemployment Rate                                                      JAN                  9.50%                  9.00%                  9.40%                      --
       02/04/2011 20:30                      US             Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp                                         JAN                  0.20%                  0.40%                  0.10%                       --
       02/04/2011 20:30                      US             Avg Hourly Earning YOY All Emp                                         JAN                  1.70%                  1.90%                  1.80%                    1.70%
       02/04/2011 20:30                      US             Avg Weekly Hours All Employees                                         JAN                    34.3                  34.2                   34.3                      --
       02/04/2011 22:00                      CA             Ivey Purchasing Managers Index                                         JAN                    53.2                  41.4                    50                       --
       02/07/2011 04:00                      SK             Foreign Exchange Reserve USD                                           JAN                     --                $295.96B               $291.57B                     --
       02/07/2011 05:30                      AU             AiG Perf of Construction Index                                         JAN                     --                   40.2                   43.8                      --
       02/07/2011 06:50                      JN             Official Reserve Assets                                                JAN                     --                $1093.0B               $1096.2B                     --
       02/07/2011 07:30                      AU             ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)                                           JAN                     --                  2.40%                  2.00%                    1.20%
       02/07/2011 07:30                      AU             Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)                                                DEC                  0.50%                  0.20%                  0.30%                    0.40%
       02/07/2011 07:30                      AU             Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ)                                          4Q                  -0.30%                 -0.30%                 0.70%                    0.50%
       02/07/2011 09:30                      HK             Purchasing Managers Index                                              JAN                     --                     --                    55                       --
       02/07/2011 12:00                      JN             Coincident Index CI                                                  DEC P                   103.1                    --                  102.4                      --
       02/07/2011 12:00                      JN             Leading Index CI                                                     DEC P                   101.4                    --                  100.6                      --
       02/07/2011 12:30                      AU             Foreign Reserves                                                       JAN                     --                     --                  41.6B                      --
       02/07/2011 12:30                      IN             FY11 Annual GDP Constant YoY%                                         1Q A                  8.60%                     --                  8.00%                      --
       02/07/2011 16:00                      SI             Foreign Reserves                                                       JAN                     --                     --                $225.75B                     --
       02/07/2011 16:30                      MA             Foreign Reserves                                                     Jan-31                    --                     --                $106.50B                     --
    Source: Bloomberg




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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K bank daily feb 7

  • 1. Capital Markets Research Feb 7, 2011 Thai Stock Market Feb 04 Change US Market Feb 04 Change SET Index 984.78 +4.18 Dow Jones 12,092.15 +29.89 Market Turnover (Bt mn) 32,716.36 +17,432.88 Nasdaq 2,769.30 +15.42 Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) +279.10 +317.14 S&P 500 1,310.87 +3.77 Thai Bond Market Feb 04 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.64 +9 bp Total Return Index 200.53 -0.10 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.75 +3 bp Total Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 89.03 -1.51 Change (bp) 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr Feb 04 (%) 2.04 2.12 2.29 2.58 2.96 3.22 3.40 3.62 3.85 4.04 4.15 4.21 Change (bp) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Interbank Rates Feb 07 Feb 03 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr Overnight (%) 2.25 1.950-2.270 Feb 04 2.26250 2.29016 2.35125 2.40250 2.51891 2.58500 2.68750 Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m Feb 04 2.25000 2.25000 - - Feb 02 0.27100 0.30900 0.46550 THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m Feb 04 1.11442 1.09532 1.24071 1.52322 1.81692 2.02724 Feb 04 0.26275 0.31150 0.46125 SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr Feb 07 Bid/Ask 2.00/2.05 2.75/2.80 3.22/3.27 3.52/3.57 3.76/3.81 4.08/4.13 4.30/4.35 KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m) (against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import USD 30.58 30.68 30.93 0.50/3.24 EUR 41.4813 41.6163 42.1425 -0.91/2.11 GBP 49.1800 49.3400 49.9300 0.10/2.74 JPY 0.3700 0.3713 0.3780 0.32/4.66 KBank Technical Analysis Feb 07 Feb 04 Support Resistance Trend Strategy THB (Onshore) 30.81 30.77 30.75 30.90 Sideway Buy USD near support JPY 82.2 82.17 81.80 82.60 Sideway Buy USD near support EUR/USD 1.3617 1.3585 1.3520 1.3640 Sideway Sell EUR near resistance Macro and Market Outlook • U.S. non-farm payrolls disappointed on Friday with the actual figure showing an increase of only 36,000 jobs in January, when the market was expecting a 145,000 job increase • Yet, unemployment rate dropped to 9.0% from 9.4% in December as the labor force fell, a possible indication of remaining discouraged workers FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD closed lower to 1.356 as the dollar gained strength after ECB showed no hurry to raise interest rate last Thursday and U.S. unemployment rate fell. USD/JPY also rose by 0.75% to settle above 82.00 due to the broad rebound of the greenback • USD/THB closed lower to 30.77 amid light volume trade. Asian currencies were mixed as several financial markets remained closed for Chinese New Year holiday Economic News Update • Egypt’s political crisis poses a risk to oil prices and will “impact” the Indian central bank’s actions, Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn said Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 2. KBank Daily Update Feb 7, 2011 financial markets could be limited for the near term as Macro and Market Outlook economic data continued to show strong growth. U.S. non-farm payrolls disappointed on Friday with the actual figure showing an increase of only 36,000 jobs in This week – U.S economic data is rather light, with the January, when the market was expecting a 145,000 job key focus likely to be weekly jobless claims on Thursday, increase (December 121K). Nevertheless, unemployment and two other releases on Friday – the international trade rate dropped to 9.0% from 9.4% in December. The private data and consumer sentiment index. sector had added 50K jobs for the month while the manufacturing sector took up an increase of 49K. Hourly wage increase rose 0.4% mom in January after a gain of US Treasuries and Thai rates 0.2% in December while average weekly hours remained unchanged near 34.2 hours. '000 Treasury yields were about two basis points away from a US Non-farm payrolls % nine-month high as the U.S. prepared to sell $72 billion of 600 11 debt this week starting tomorrow. 400 10 200 9 The difference between 2- and 10-year rates widened to 0 the most in almost a year as economists said reports this 8 -200 -400 7 week will show consumer confidence climbed and initial -600 6 claims for jobless benefits fell. An unexpected decline in -800 5 the U.S. jobless rate in January spurred speculation -1000 4 employment will improve in 2011. Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Benchmark 10-year notes yielded 3.64 percent as of 9:47 increase in Non-farm payrolls Unemployment rate a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. The spread between 2- and 10-year yields increased to as Economic data from the U.S. last week were mostly much as 2.93 percentage points today, the widest since positive, lending support to the dollar and the stock market. Feb. 18 last year. (Source: Bloomberg) The Labor Department’s report was, however, rather mixed. The 9.0% jobless rate was from the U.S. household S&P Index (bp) survey that showed a drop of 504K in labor force, likely to 1350 300 signal that there remained a substantial number of 1300 280 discouraged workers. However, there was also an increase 1250 260 of 117K job among the households. 1200 240 600 14500 1150 14000 220 580 1100 13500 1050 200 560 13000 1000 180 540 12500 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 520 12000 11500 S&P Index 2-10 Spread (bps, RHS) 500 11000 480 10500 460 10000 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Thai interest rate: Bond yields were little changed on Friday and the 2-10 spread was at 91bp. Last week, bond MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan Index (LHS) Dow Jones Industrial Average (RHS) yields remained in range trade – external factors were the key factors affecting the market sentiment while domestic th Egypt’s political scene remained in a confrontational mode factors were few (next MPC meeting on March 9 ). At the but impact on international stock market had been limited same time, the consumer price inflation was showed to so far. A prolonged turmoil may continue to affect oil prices have stayed put at 3.0% on Tuesday, reducing some but the market will also anticipate some comments from concerns about rising inflation. OPEC nations going forward, especially as global demand continues to expand. 1100 28 bp Government bond yield change % 1000 29 5 4.5 30 4 900 3 4.0 31 800 32 2 3.5 1 700 33 0 3.0 600 34 -1 35 -2 2.5 500 36 -3 400 2.0 37 -4 300 38 -5 1.5 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 20.0 yrs SET index (left axis) USD/THB (inverted right axis) Spread (left axis) 4-Feb-11 28-Jan-11 At the same time, Thailand’s political risks (both locally and with Cambodia) have increased, not boding well for both the local stock market and the strength of the Thai baht against other currencies. Nevertheless, impacts on the 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 3. KBank Daily Update Feb 7, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Fri 04-Feb-11 Thu 03-Feb-11 % Change 1.42 1.40 USD/THB 30.77 30.82 -0.16 1.38 USD/JPY 82.20 81.59 +0.75 1.36 EUR/USD 1.356 1.363 -0.54 1.34 GBP/USD 1.6096 1.6137 -0.25 1.32 1.30 USD/CHF 0.9584 0.9455 +1.36 1.28 USD/SGD 1.2745 1.2740 +0.04 1.26 USD/TWD 29.04 29.03 +0.03 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 USD/KRW 1,114.3 1,113.6 +0.06 EUR/USD USD/PHP 43.71 43.78 -0.16 USD/IDR 8,950 9,020 -0.78 EUR/USD closed lower to 1.356 as the dollar gained strength after ECB showed no hurry to raise interest rate USD/MYR 3.045 3.042 +0.10 last Thursday and U.S. unemployment rate fell. The USD/CNY 6.561 6.556 +0.08 rebound of the dollar also led several other major Source: Reuters currencies weaker on Friday. USD/JPY also rose by .FX Consensus Forecast 0.75% to settle above 82.00 due to the broad rebound of Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 the greenback. At the same time, the rise of U.S. Treasury yields had also been a contributing factor. The market is USD/THB 30.83 - 29.00 expecting U.S. data this week to continue showing positive USD/JPY 82.20 86.00 89.00 signs in the economy, boosting long-term yields. EUR/USD 1.36 1.30 1.30 38.50 80 GBP/USD 1.61 1.55 1.60 38.00 81 USD/CNY 6.58 6.45 6.29 37.50 82 37.00 USD/SGD 1.27 1.27 1.23 83 36.50 USD/IDR 8,973 8,900 8,825 84 36.00 USD/MYR 3.04 3.03 2.97 35.50 85 USD/PHP 43.67 42.80 41.50 35.00 86 USD/KRW 1,106 1,090 1,050 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan USD/TWD 28.99 29.05 28.55 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) AUD/USD 1.01 0.99 0.98 USD/THB closed lower to 30.77 amid light volume trade. Asian currencies were mixed as several financial markets NZD/USD 0.77 0.77 0.75 Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB remained closed for Chinese New Year holiday. We expect this week’s regional stock market to offer more insights into Currency Pair Targets what investors think about the strength of Asian growth, Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 especially after last week’s political turmoil in Egypt. USD/THB 30.82 - 29.0 31.30 EUR/THB 41.97 40.0 37.0 31.10 30.90 JPY/THB 37.51 34.70 29.5 30.70 GBP/THB 49.67 47.40 43.7 30.50 30.30 CNY/THB 4.68 4.78 4.2 30.10 AUD/THB 31.23 27.4 26.0 29.90 29.70 CHF/THB 32.33 29.6 27.7 Source: KBank, Bloomberg 29.50 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan KBank NEER Index USD/THB Current 97.74 YTD + 4.96% vs 52 weeks ago + 3.79% vs 1mth ago - 2.99% vs 1 week ago + 0.10% vs 1 day ago + 0.18% vs long term average + 9.88% Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 4. KBank Daily Update Feb 7, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bonds Feb 04 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB113A 2.07 2.09 2.12 2.14 2.17 2.19 2.21 2.24 2.01 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB116A 2.66 2.57 2.49 2.40 2.31 2.22 2.13 2.04 1.70 CB11222A 0.04 80,000 2.040/2.114 2.091900 1.12 LB11NA 3.56 3.30 3.04 2.78 2.52 2.25 1.99 1.73 1.22 Source: ThaiBMA LB123A 4.18 3.81 3.45 3.08 2.72 2.35 1.99 1.62 1.01 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB12NA 5.33 4.72 4.12 3.51 2.90 2.30 1.69 1.09 0.23 LB133A 5.99 5.26 4.52 3.79 3.06 2.32 1.59 0.86 -0.13 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB137A 6.56 5.71 4.85 3.99 3.14 2.28 1.43 0.57 -0.54 LB13OA 7.00 6.05 5.10 4.14 3.19 2.24 1.29 0.34 -0.86 CB11310C 0.08 25,000 08-Feb-11 11-Mar-11 - LB143A 7.36 6.34 5.33 4.31 3.29 2.28 1.26 0.25 -1.02 CB11512B 0.25 22,000 08-Feb-11 12-May-11 - LB145A 7.91 6.77 5.63 4.49 3.35 2.21 1.07 -0.07 -1.46 CB118011A 0.50 15,000 08-Feb-11 11-Aug-11 - LB145B 7.91 6.77 5.63 4.49 3.35 2.21 1.07 -0.07 -1.46 BOT142A 3.00 15,000 11-Feb-11 15-Feb-14 - LB14DA 8.71 7.38 6.06 4.73 3.40 2.08 0.75 -0.58 -2.15 BOT132A 2.00 30,000 15-Feb-11 17-Feb-13 LB155A 9.48 7.96 6.45 4.94 3.42 1.91 0.40 -1.12 -2.88 BOT152A 4.00 15,000 22-Feb-11 24-Feb-15 - LB157A 9.34 7.86 6.39 4.91 3.44 1.97 0.49 -0.98 -2.71 Source: ThaiBMA LB15DA 10.31 8.59 6.87 5.15 3.43 1.71 -0.01 -1.73 -3.70 Auction Calendar of Government Bonds LB167A 10.93 9.08 7.23 5.38 3.53 1.69 -0.16 -2.01 -4.10 Tenor Amt. LB16NA 11.48 9.50 7.53 5.55 3.57 1.59 -0.38 -2.36 -4.58 Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB171A 11.56 9.57 7.59 5.60 3.62 1.64 -0.34 -2.33 -4.56 LB15DA 5.32 10,000 09-Feb-11 11-Dec-15 - LB175A 12.08 9.97 7.86 5.75 3.64 1.53 -0.58 -2.69 -5.04 LB416A 30.65 5,000 16-Feb-11 14-Jun-41 - LB183A 13.16 10.79 8.41 6.04 3.67 1.30 -1.07 -3.43 -6.05 LB183B 12.86 10.56 8.27 5.97 3.67 1.38 -0.92 -3.21 -5.76 LB25DA 15.05 8,000 23-Feb-11 12-Dec-25 - LB191A 13.84 11.30 8.77 6.23 3.70 1.17 -1.37 -3.90 -6.68 Source: ThaiBMA LB196A 14.78 12.01 9.24 6.47 3.70 0.93 -1.83 -4.60 -7.61 LB198A 14.61 11.90 9.19 6.48 3.77 1.07 -1.64 -4.35 -7.30 LB19DA 14.90 12.13 9.36 6.59 3.82 1.05 -1.71 -4.48 -7.49 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months LB213A 16.04 13.00 9.97 6.94 3.91 0.88 -2.15 -5.17 -8.45 during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury LB214A 15.92 12.93 9.94 6.94 3.95 0.96 -2.02 -5.01 -8.25 cash balance. LB22NA 18.02 14.53 11.04 7.56 4.07 0.59 -2.89 -6.37 -10.10 LB233A 18.07 14.58 11.08 7.59 4.10 0.61 -2.88 -6.36 -10.10 LB236A 19.53 15.68 11.82 7.97 4.12 0.27 -3.57 -7.42 -11.51 LB244A 19.65 15.77 11.90 8.03 4.16 0.29 -3.57 -7.44 -11.55 LB24DA 20.26 16.24 12.22 8.21 4.19 0.18 -3.83 -7.84 -12.09 LB267A 20.76 16.62 12.49 8.35 4.22 0.09 -4.03 -8.16 -12.53 LB283A 22.01 17.56 13.12 8.68 4.25 -0.18 -4.61 -9.04 -13.72 LB296A 23.72 18.85 13.98 9.12 4.26 -0.59 -5.44 -10.29 -15.39 LB383A 27.94 22.04 16.13 10.24 4.34 -1.54 -7.43 -13.30 -19.43 LB396A 29.28 23.04 16.81 10.58 4.36 -1.86 -8.07 -14.27 -20.72 Average 12.97 10.62 8.27 5.92 3.58 1.23 -1.11 -3.46 -6.05 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 5. KBank Daily Update Feb 7, 2011 Economic News Update Egypt Crisis to ‘Impact’ India Central Bank Actions, Gokarn Says: Egypt’s political crisis poses a risk to oil prices and will “impact” the Indian central bank’s actions, Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn said. “A whole set of events unfolded in the Middle East which are starting to have an impact on oil prices and that is something which we didn’t anticipate at the time of making the policy announcement on Jan. 25,” Gokarn said yesterday in Dabolim, in the western Indian state of Goa. “It is going to have an impact on our thinking, on our actions going forward.” India, which meets about three-quarters of its annual energy needs from imports, is bracing for the economic impact of anti-government protests in Egypt. Oil prices could more than double if the unrest in Egypt forces the closure of the Suez Canal, Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said Feb. 4. The Reserve Bank of India last month increased its key repurchase rate for the seventh time in a year, boosting the measure by a quarter of a percentage point to 6.5 percent, to rein in inflation. Protests demanding an end to President Hosni Mubarak’s 30- year rule erupted Jan. 25 in Cairo and have left as many as 300 people dead, according to the United Nations. Concern that turmoil in Egypt could force the closure of the Suez Canal, halting crude shipments through the crucial waterway, sent North Sea Brent crude oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time since October 2008 last week. About 2.5 percent of world oil output moves through Egypt via the waterway and the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman and representatives from the nation’s opposition groups agreed yesterday to conclude studying amendments to the constitution by the first week of March, following demonstrations that led Mubarak to announce he would step down. India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said Feb. 4 the nation needs to urgently contain prices, that are rising at the fastest pace among major economies in Asia, as inflation poses a “serious threat to the growth momentum.” India’s benchmark wholesale-price inflation accelerated to 8.43 percent in December, from 7.48 percent in the previous month, due to higher costs of food and oil. (Source: Bloomberg) Market Strategists: Nalin Chutchotitham Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com Tel: 02-470-3235 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 6. KBank Daily Update Feb 7, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised Reserve Bank Quarterly Monetary Policy 02/04/2011 07:30 AU Statement 02/04/2011 08:00 PH Consumer Price Index (YoY) JAN 3.30% 3.50% 3.00% -- 02/04/2011 08:00 PH Consumer Price Index NSA (MoM) JAN 0.50% 0.80% 0.50% -- 02/04/2011 13:07 ID Bank Indonesia Reference Rate Feb-04 6.50% 6.75% 6.50% -- 02/04/2011 14:30 TH Forward Contracts Jan-28 -- $19.0B $18.4B -- 02/04/2011 14:30 TH Foreign Reserves Jan-28 -- $174.0B $174.4B -- 02/04/2011 15:00 UK Halifax House Prices sa (MoM) JAN -0.30% 0.80% -1.30% -1.10% 02/04/2011 15:00 UK Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year JAN -3.00% -2.40% -1.60% -- 02/04/2011 15:57 UK New Car Registrations (YoY) JAN -- -11.50% -18.00% -- Istat Releases the New Consumer Prices' 02/04/2011 16:00 IT Basket and Methodology 02/04/2011 17:00 IT CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) JAN P 0.30% 0.40% 0.40% -- 02/04/2011 17:00 IT CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) JAN P 2.00% 2.10% 1.90% -- 02/04/2011 17:00 IT CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) JAN P -1.30% -1.20% 0.40% -- 02/04/2011 17:00 IT CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) JAN P 2.20% 2.40% 2.10% -- 02/04/2011 17:23 ID Consumer Confidence Index JAN -- 113.9 109.3 -- 02/04/2011 19:00 CA Unemployment Rate JAN 7.60% 7.80% 7.60% -- 02/04/2011 19:00 CA Net Change in Employment JAN 15.0K 69.2K 22.0K -- 02/04/2011 19:00 CA Full Time Employment Change JAN -- 31.1 38 40.5 02/04/2011 19:00 CA Part Time Employment Change JAN -- 38 -16.1 -9.9 02/04/2011 19:00 CA Participation Rate JAN 67 67 66.9 66.7 02/04/2011 20:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls JAN 146K 36K 103K 121K 02/04/2011 20:30 US Change in Private Payrolls JAN 145K 50K 113K 139K 02/04/2011 20:30 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls JAN 10K 49K 10K 14K 02/04/2011 20:30 US Unemployment Rate JAN 9.50% 9.00% 9.40% -- 02/04/2011 20:30 US Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp JAN 0.20% 0.40% 0.10% -- 02/04/2011 20:30 US Avg Hourly Earning YOY All Emp JAN 1.70% 1.90% 1.80% 1.70% 02/04/2011 20:30 US Avg Weekly Hours All Employees JAN 34.3 34.2 34.3 -- 02/04/2011 22:00 CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Index JAN 53.2 41.4 50 -- 02/07/2011 04:00 SK Foreign Exchange Reserve USD JAN -- $295.96B $291.57B -- 02/07/2011 05:30 AU AiG Perf of Construction Index JAN -- 40.2 43.8 -- 02/07/2011 06:50 JN Official Reserve Assets JAN -- $1093.0B $1096.2B -- 02/07/2011 07:30 AU ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) JAN -- 2.40% 2.00% 1.20% 02/07/2011 07:30 AU Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) DEC 0.50% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 02/07/2011 07:30 AU Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) 4Q -0.30% -0.30% 0.70% 0.50% 02/07/2011 09:30 HK Purchasing Managers Index JAN -- -- 55 -- 02/07/2011 12:00 JN Coincident Index CI DEC P 103.1 -- 102.4 -- 02/07/2011 12:00 JN Leading Index CI DEC P 101.4 -- 100.6 -- 02/07/2011 12:30 AU Foreign Reserves JAN -- -- 41.6B -- 02/07/2011 12:30 IN FY11 Annual GDP Constant YoY% 1Q A 8.60% -- 8.00% -- 02/07/2011 16:00 SI Foreign Reserves JAN -- -- $225.75B -- 02/07/2011 16:30 MA Foreign Reserves Jan-31 -- -- $106.50B -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.