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Capital Markets Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Feb 17, 2011
Thai Stock Market                                                            US Market
                                                                         Feb 16                   Change               Feb 16            Change
SET Index                                                                    Dow Jones
                                                                         982.07                     +13.58          12,288.17                +61.53
Market Turnover (Bt mn)                                               33,274.55
                                                                             Nasdaq              +3,098.89           2,825.56                +21.21
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn)                                          +3,395.13
                                                                             S&P 500              +486.38            1,336.32                  +8.31
Thai Bond Market                                                             US 10 yr T-note (%)
                                                                         Feb 16                   Change                  3.62                 +1 bp
Total Return Index                                                       200.26
                                                                             US 2yr T-note (%)       -0.01                0.84                 +1 bp
                                                                             NYMEX crude ($/b)                          84.99                  +0.67
Yield curve             1m        3m        6m        1yr          2yr         3yr       5yr         7yr       10yr       12yr       14yr       18yr
Feb 16 (%)             2.05      2.16      2.34      2.61         3.09        3.36      3.50        3.71       3.89       4.06       4.16       4.20
Chng 1D (bp)              2         2          3         1           3           3          2          1          0          0          0         -1
Chng 5D (bp)              2         3          4         2           8          11         -6          3          1          0          0         -1
Interbank Rates         Feb 17       Feb 14             BIBOR            1w          1m           2m         3m        6m          9m         1yr
Overnight (%)             2.25    2.000-2.210           Feb 16        2.26500      2.32125 2.42125 2.47125 2.59625 2.65625 2.74750
Repurchase Rates         1-day          7-day           14-day             1m             SIBOR           1m               3m              6m
Feb 16                  2.25000        2.25000              -               -             Feb 16        0.27250         0.31550          0.47550
THBFIX (Ref.)       1m         2m        3m         6m          9m         1yr            LIBOR           1m               3m              6m
Feb 16            1.97060    1.90713 2.02892 2.16087 2.38148             2.58112          Feb 16        0.26300         0.31350          0.46520
SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore)                 1yr             2yr              3yr              4yr              5yr              7yr             10yr
Feb 17       Bid/Ask                2.48/2.50       2.94/2.97        3.34/3.39       3.63/3.68         3.82/3.87       4.13/4.18        4.39/4.44
KBank Counter Rates                              Buying                               Selling                   Premium/Discount (stgs/m)
(against THB)                       Sight Bill                T/T                        T/T                              Export/Import
USD                                   30.37                 30.47                      30.72                                 1.33/6.48
EUR                                  41.1200               41.2563                    41.7800                                0.65/5.62
GBP                                  48.7800               48.9400                    49.5275                                1.97/6.49
JPY                                  0.3615                0.3628                      0.3694                                1.50/7.08
KBank Technical Analysis                  Feb 17           Feb 16          Support        Resistance          Trend                Strategy
THB (Onshore)                              30.61            30.64            30.55            30.70          Sideway       Sell USD near resistance
JPY                                        83.56            83.65            83.20            82.60          Sideway        Buy USD near support
EUR/USD                                   1.3596           1.3566           1.3520           1.3620          Sideway        Buy EUR near support



                                                                                      Macro and Market Outlook
                   •    Global stock indices rose yesterday, supported by strong risk appetite and positive economic
                        data in recent days. The dollar fell against major currencies on Iranian warship alert
                   •    FOMC minutes showed Fed is more optimistic with recovery but maintained an unchanged
                        stance to Q.E.. Property market recovery remained choppy as housing starts rose but building
                        permits slumped
                   •    BoE sees U.K. recovery difficult going forward and said inflation may take about two years to
                        reach policy target of 2.0%


                                                                                                      FX Market Wrap
                    •   EUR/USD rebounded to 1.357 on renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East, leading
                        investors to seek refuge in the dollar despite the ongoing risk appetite in global stock markets
                    •   USD/THB lower for the third day as foreign investors bought into local stocks. Benefits for Thai
                        stocks could have been a result of improved sentiment in Asian assets while foreigners may be
                        anticipating strong GDP growth data from the NESDB due next Monday


                                                                                          Economic News Update
                   •    Singapore raised its inflation forecast for 2011 after the economy expanded at a record pace last
                        year, sustaining pressure on the central bank to allow greater currency appreciation
                    Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721)
                   via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours


                                www.twitter.com/KBankFX                                     www.facebook.com/KBankFX



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                              Feb 17, 2011

                     Macro and Market Outlook                                                                                              US Treasuries and Thai rates
    Global stock indices rose yesterday, supported by strong                                                                     Treasuries held losses from yesterday before a
    risk appetite and positive economic data in recent days.                                                                     government report that economists said will show the cost
    The dollar fell against major currencies yesterday,                                                                          of living in the U.S. climbed in January for a seventh month.
    however, as Israel said that two Iranian warships may be
    heading for the Suez Canal and Syria waters in an act                                                                        Treasury yields are poised to rise, according to John
    deemed provocative. On top of the ongoing political                                                                          Brynjolfsson, chief investment officer at Armored Wolf LLC
    protests in several Arab nations, the removal of U.S.-                                                                       hedge fund. Labor Department figures will show the
    backed Hosni Mubarak may increase geopolitical risks in                                                                      consumer price index advanced 0.3 percent in January,
    the region going forward.                                                                                                    after December’s 0.4 percent gain, according to the median
     $/barrel                                                                                                                    forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
       105
       100
                                                                                                                                 Ten-year notes yielded 3.62 percent as of 9:35 a.m. in
        95                                                                                                                       Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. (Source:
        90                                                                                                                       Bloomberg)
         85
                                                                                                                                  S&P Index                                                                                              (bp)
         80
         75                                                                                                                       1400                                                                                                    300
         70                                                                                                                       1350
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         280
         65                                                                                                                       1300
          Jun-10       Jul-10    Aug-10    Sep-10     Oct-10         Nov-10     Dec-10   Jan-11      Feb-11                       1250                                                                                                   260
                                                                                                                                  1200
                     Arabian Gulf Dubai Fateh               WTI oil price (RHS)                  Dated Brent                                                                                                                             240
                                                                                                                                  1150
                                                                                                                                  1100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         220
    The BOE forecasts that inflation will accelerate from                                                                         1050
                                                                                                                                  1000                                                                                                   200
    January’s 4.0% and peak at 4.4% this year before easing
                                                                                                                                     Sep-10            Oct-10          Nov-10           Dec-10           Jan-11           Feb-11
    to the target of 2% by the mid-2012. At the same time,
    U.K.’s growth outlook has worsened due to the weak                                                                                                            S&P Index                  2-10 Spread (bps, RHS)
    growth in Q4 and market’s expectations of higher
    borrowing costs going forward. Given these assumptions,
    BOE Governor, Mervyn King, also said that recovery is
                                                                                                                                 Thai interest rate:
    likely to be bumpy. The pound fell after the release of the
    forecasts, dropping more than 0.5 percent against the                                                                        Bond yields were little changed despite the surge in
    dollar in London’s morning trade session.                                                                                    interest rate swaps and swap points. Investors’ demand
                                                                                                                                 continued to support a range trade in bonds, with long-term
    Data from the U.S. housing market remained rather mixed.                                                                     investors’ demand flowing into short-term bonds due to
    Housing starts rose by more-than-expected at about 14%                                                                       rather flat yield curve. Long-term yields remain rather
    in January but building permits fell 10.4%, indicating that                                                                  unattractive as investors look for more liquidity premium,
    builders still have uncertain confidence about recovery of                                                                   leading to rather low demand of the 30 year bond at
    the housing sector.                                                                                                          yesterday’s auction. (B/C at 1.75 for a Bt5bn auction)
      units (saar)
       1200
                                                                                                                                 In the swap markets, inflation and profit-taking remained
       1100
                                                                                                                                 the key drivers of swap points. THBFIX 6m rate rose 22bp
       1000                                                                                                                      to above 2.16%, its highest level since April 2009. The
        900                                                                                                                      implied 1-year rate to borrow THB rose to 2.58%, about
        800                                                                                                                      2bp above the 1-year IRS rate and only 3bp from the 1-
        700                                                                                                                      year bond yield.
        600
                                                                                                                                     %                                        IRS yield curve change                                     bp
        500
        400                                                                                                                         5.0                                                                                                  160
              Jan-08         Jul-08        Jan-09           Jul-09            Jan-10      Jul-10          Jan-11                                                                                                                         140
                                                                                                                                    4.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         120
                                  building permits ('000)                housing starts ('000)
                                                                                                                                    3.0                                                                                                  100
    Meanwhile, the U.S. producer price index rose sharply in                                                                                                                                                                             80
                                                                                                                                    2.0                                                                                                  60
    January by 0.8% mom (3.6% yoy) but policymakers do not
    think that higher prices from energy and food price surge                                                                                                                                                                            40
                                                                                                                                    1.0
    would remain for long. In any case, the non-food and non-                                                                                                                                                                            20
                                                                                                                                    0.0                                                                                        0
    energy price index also rose by 0.5% mom, exceeding
                                                                                                                                           0.1 0.2     0.3 0.5      0.8 1.0     2.0 3.0     4.0   5.0 7.0 12.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 yrs
    forecast of 0.2% as analysts said that January is the month
    that businesses normally try to gauge their pricing power.                                                                                          Spread (left axis)              16-Feb-11                 16-Jan-11


    FOMC minutes from the previous meeting in January
    showed that Fed is more optimistic with regards to the
    recovery but maintained an unchanged stance to its Q.E.
    program. Labor market conditions remained unsatisfactory
    but the Fed forecasts that unemployment rate would
    reduce to around 8.8 – 9.0% in Q4. As for GDP growth this
    year, the Fed expects a higher range of 3.4-3.9% instead
    of the 3.0-3.6% range expected in December.



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 17, 2011

                                              FX Wrap                                                                                                                   Currency Movement
                                                                                                                                                                Wed 16-Feb-11                Tue 15-Feb-11                  % Change
       1.40
                                                                                                                                         USD/THB                       30.63                      30.69                        -0.20
       1.38
                                                                                                                                         USD/JPY                       83.65                      83.78                        -0.16
       1.36
                                                                                                                                        EUR/USD                        1.357                      1.349                       +0.58
       1.34
                                                                                                                                        GBP/USD                       1.6092                     1.6123                        -0.19
       1.32
                                                                                                                                         USD/CHF                      0.9589                     0.9668                        -0.82
       1.30                                                                                                                             USD/SGD                       1.2787                     1.2812                        -0.20
       1.28                                                                                                                             USD/TWD                        29.36                      29.43                        -0.24
           1-Dec       11-Dec        21-Dec    31-Dec     10-Jan      20-Jan      30-Jan      9-Feb
                                                                                                                                        USD/KRW                      1,116.0                     1,121.3                       -0.47
                                                            EUR/USD
                                                                                                                                         USD/PHP                       43.59                      43.62                        -0.07
                                                                                                                                         USD/IDR                       8,876                      8,900                        -0.27
    EUR/USD rebounded to 1.357 on renewed geopolitical
    risks in the Middle East, leading investors to seek refuge in                                                                       USD/MYR                        3.046                      3.055                        -0.29
    the dollar despite the ongoing risk appetite in global stcok                                                                        USD/CNY                        6.588                      6.589                        -0.02
    markets. Data from Europe was light yesterday but we look                                                                      Source: Reuters
    forward to the euro zone trade balance today. USD/JPY                                                                                                            .FX Consensus Forecast
    remained in range trade, edging down slightly to 83.65 as                                                                                                                        Spot                              Dec 2011
    the dollar weakened broadly.
                                                                                                                                             USD/THB                                30.61                                29.00
       38.50                                                                                                 80
                                                                                                                                             USD/JPY                                83.56                                89.00
       38.00
                                                                                                             81
       37.50
                                                                                                                                             EUR/USD                                 1.36                                 1.33
       37.00                                                                                                 82                              GBP/USD                                 1.61                                 1.61
       36.50                                                                                                 83                              USD/CNY                                 6.58                                 6.30
       36.00
                                                                                                             84
                                                                                                                                             USD/SGD                                 1.28                                 1.23
       35.50
                                                                                                                                             USD/IDR                                8,881                                8,800
       35.00                                                                                                 85
            1-Oct               1-Nov               1-Dec                1-Jan              1-Feb                                           USD/MYR                                  3.04                                 2.96
                                 JPY/THB (LHS)                  USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis)                                                 USD/PHP                                43.39                                42.00
                                                                                                                                            USD/KRW                                 1,115                                1,050
    USD/THB closed at 30.63, lower for the third day as                                                                                     USD/TWD                                 29.34                                28.35
    foreign investors bought into local stocks. Benefits for Thai                                                                            AUD/USD                                 1.00                                 0.98
    stocks could have been a result of improved sentiment in
                                                                                                                                             NZD/USD                                 0.76                                 0.75
    Asian assets while foreigners may also be increasing THB                                                                       Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB
    exposure in anticipation of strong GDP growth data from
    the NESDB due next Monday. In addition, expectation of                                                                                                             Currency Pair Targets
                               th
    policy rate hike on March 9 is also strong.                                                                                                                                      Spot                                Dec 2011

    Due to the recent surge in swap points, we expect that                                                                                   USD/THB                                30.61                                    29.0
    exporters would increase their volume of forward USD/THB                                                                                 EUR/THB                                41.61                                    37.0
    selling in the near term. Expectation of more USD selling
                                                                                                                                             JPY/THB                                36.64                                    29.5
    flows could lead the spot rate lower as well, if sentiments in
    the global markets remain supportive.                                                                                                    GBP/THB                                49.25                                    43.7
                                                                                                                                             CNY/THB                                 4.65                                     4.2
       118                                                                                                    29
       117                                                                                                                                   AUD/THB                                30.75                                    26.0
       116                                                                                                    30
       115                                                                                                                                   CHF/THB                                31.95                                    27.7
       114                                                                                                    31                   Source: KBank, Bloomberg
       113
       112                                                                                                    32
       111
                                                                                                                                 KBank NEER Index
       110                                                                                                    33
                                                                                                                                 Current                                                                         98.14
       109
       108                                                                                                    34                 YTD                                                                           + 5.39%
         Nov -09            Feb-10            May -10           Aug-10            Nov -10           Feb-11
                                                                                                                                 vs 52 weeks ago                                                               + 4.25%
                             Asian dollar index                    USD/THB (right-axis-inverted)                                 vs 1mth ago                                                                   - 1.47%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 week ago                                                                 + 0.42%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 day ago                                                                  + 0.01%
                                                                                                                                 vs long term average                                                         + 10.33%
                                                                                                                                 Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
                                                                                                                                 rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
                                                                                                                                 competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 17, 2011

         Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized                                                                                                           Auction results of BoT and Government bonds                                                                         Feb 16
    Yield shift (bps)         -40       -30            -20          -10              0               +10         +20             +30          +40                                                                                                                                         Bid-
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Tenor              Amt.                      Accepted
         LB113A               2.04      2.08           2.12         2.15           2.19              2.23        2.27            2.31         2.09                     Symbol                                                                                            Avg. Yield (%) coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)            (Bt mn)                    Range (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ratio
           LB116A             2.64      2.56           2.49         2.41           2.34              2.27        2.19            2.12         1.79
                                                                                                                                                                       LB416A                            30.65             5,000                      4.343/4.417          4.364700       1.75
          LB11NA              3.54      3.29           3.04         2.79           2.55              2.30        2.05            1.80         1.31
                                                                                                                                                                       CB11307A                          0.04              95,000                     2.070/2.120          2.104500       1.08
           LB123A             4.16      3.81           3.46         3.11           2.76              2.41        2.06            1.71         1.11
                                                                                                                                                                       Source: ThaiBMA
          LB12NA              5.31      4.72           4.12         3.53           2.94              2.35        1.76            1.17         0.32
           LB133A             6.07      5.35           4.63         3.91           3.19              2.47        1.75            1.04         0.07                     Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds
           LB137A             6.61      5.77           4.93         4.09           3.24              2.40        1.56            0.72        -0.37                                                       Tenor              Amt.
                                                                                                                                                                       Symbol                                                                     Auction Date           Maturity Date Remark
          LB13OA              7.03      6.09           5.15         4.22           3.28              2.34        1.41            0.47        -0.72                                                        (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB143A             7.43      6.43           5.43         4.43           3.43              2.42        1.42            0.42        -0.83                     CB11307A                          0.04              95,000                     16-Feb-11            07-Mar-11       -
           LB145A             7.97      6.85           5.72         4.60           3.47              2.35        1.22            0.10        -1.28                     CB11308A                          0.04              80,000                     17-Feb-11            08-Mar-11       -
           LB145B             7.97      6.84           5.72         4.59           3.47              2.34        1.22            0.09        -1.28                     BOT152A                           4.00              15,000                     22-Feb-11            24-Feb-15       -
          LB14DA              8.76      7.45           6.14         4.83           3.52              2.20        0.89            -0.42 -1.98                           CB11324C                          0.08              25,000                     22-Feb-11            24-Mar-11       -
           LB155A             9.51      8.02           6.52         5.02           3.52              2.02        0.52            -0.97 -2.72                           CB11526B                          0.25              12,000                     22-Feb-11           26-May-11        -
           LB157A             9.37      7.91           6.45         4.99           3.53              2.07        0.61            -0.85 -2.56                                                                                                                                               -
                                                                                                                                                                       CB11825A                          0.50              15,000                     22-Feb-11            25-Aug-11
          LB15DA              10.34 8.64               6.93         5.23           3.52              1.82        0.11            -1.59 -3.54
                                                                                                                                                                       Source: ThaiBMA
           LB167A             10.96 9.12               7.29         5.46           3.63              1.79       -0.04 -1.87 -3.95
                                                                                                                                                                       Auction Calendar of Government Bonds
          LB16NA              11.52 9.56               7.60         5.63           3.67              1.71       -0.25 -2.21 -4.42
           LB171A             11.59 9.62               7.65         5.68           3.72              1.75       -0.22 -2.18 -4.40                                                                        Tenor              Amt.
                                                                                                                                                                       Symbol                                                                     Auction Date           Maturity Date Remark
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB175A             12.10 10.00 7.91                      5.81           3.72              1.62       -0.47 -2.56 -4.90
                                                                                                                                                                       LB25DA                            15.05             8,000                      23-Feb-11            12-Dec-25       -
           LB183A             13.19 10.83 8.48                      6.12           3.77              1.41       -0.94 -3.29 -5.89
           LB183B             12.88 10.60 8.32                      6.04           3.76              1.48       -0.80 -3.08 -5.60                                      Source: ThaiBMA

           LB191A             13.86 11.34 8.82                      6.30           3.79              1.27       -1.24 -3.76 -6.52
           LB196A             14.80 12.04 9.29                      6.54           3.78              1.03       -1.72 -4.47 -7.46
           LB198A             14.59 11.90 9.21                      6.52           3.82              1.13       -1.56 -4.24 -7.18
                                                                                                                                                                       * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months
          LB19DA              14.89 12.14 9.38                      6.63           3.88              1.12       -1.63 -4.38 -7.38                                      during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury
           LB213A             16.01 12.99 9.97                      6.96           3.95              0.93       -2.08 -5.09 -8.35                                      cash balance.
           LB214A             15.91 12.94 9.96                      6.99           4.01              1.04       -1.93 -4.90 -8.12
          LB22NA              17.98 14.51 11.04 7.56                               4.10              0.63       -2.84 -6.30 -10.01
           LB233A             18.03 14.55 11.07 7.59                               4.12              0.64       -2.83 -6.30 -10.02
           LB236A             19.48 15.64 11.80 7.96                               4.12              0.29       -3.54 -7.37 -11.45
           LB244A             19.60 15.74 11.88 8.03                               4.17              0.32       -3.53 -7.38 -11.47
          LB24DA              20.22 16.21 12.21 8.21                               4.21              0.22       -3.78 -7.77 -12.01
           LB267A             20.71 16.58 12.46 8.34                               4.22              0.10       -4.01 -8.12 -12.48
           LB283A             21.95 17.52 13.09 8.67                               4.25          -0.17 -4.59 -9.00 -13.66
           LB296A             23.66 18.80 13.95 9.10                               4.25          -0.59 -5.43 -10.27 -15.35
           LB383A             27.89 21.99 16.11 10.22 4.34                                       -1.53 -7.40 -13.26 -19.37
           LB396A             29.22 23.00 16.78 10.57 4.36                                       -1.84 -8.03 -14.22 -20.65
          Average             12.97 10.63 8.30                      5.97           3.64              1.31       -1.02 -3.35 -5.93
    Source: KBank, Bloomberg



            KBank Rich – Cheap Model
                                    30.00

                                    20.00

                                    10.00

                                     0.00

                                   -10.00

                                   -20.00

                                   -30.00                                                                                                                                                                                                             3 mth avg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Now
                                   -40.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       LB296A
                                              LB113A

                                                        LB116A
                                                                 LB11NA

                                                                          LB123A

                                                                                   LB133A
                                                                                            LB137A

                                                                                                      LB145B

                                                                                                               LB14DA
                                                                                                                        LB155A

                                                                                                                                 LB15DA

                                                                                                                                          LB167A
                                                                                                                                                   LB16NA

                                                                                                                                                            LB175A

                                                                                                                                                                     LB183B
                                                                                                                                                                              LB191A

                                                                                                                                                                                       LB196A

                                                                                                                                                                                                LB198A
                                                                                                                                                                                                         LB19DA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LB213A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           LB24DA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    LB267A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             LB283A


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                LB396A




            Source: Bloomberg, KBank                                                                                        The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 4
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 17, 2011

                      Economic News Update
    Singapore Raises 2011 Inflation Forecast
    After Record Expansion: Singapore raised its
    inflation forecast for 2011 after the economy expanded at a
    record pace last year, sustaining pressure on the central
    bank to allow greater currency appreciation.

    Consumer prices may climb 3 percent to 4 percent this
    year, up from a previous forecast of 2 percent to 3 percent,
    the trade ministry said in a statement today. Gross
    domestic product rose an annualized 3.9 percent in the
    three months to Dec. 31 from the previous quarter, when it
    contracted a revised 16.7 percent, it said. The economy
    expanded a revised 14.5 percent in 2010.

    Singapore’s growth is forecast to slow in 2011 to less than
    half of last year’s pace, when an economic rebound from
    the 2009 global recession prompted employers to boost
    wages and spurred property prices and tourist arrivals to
    unprecedented levels. Still, inflationary pressures may
    force the central bank to join other Asian policy makers in
    tightening monetary policy.

    “The economy should continue to fare well in coming
    quarters with services playing a key role,” Vishnu Varathan,
    an economist at Capital Economics (Asia) Pte in
    Singapore, said before the report. “The risk is that inflation
    could rise further to uncomfortably high levels in coming
    months. Policy settings will likely have to be tightened
    further to keep inflation under control.”

    Consumer prices may rise 5 percent to 6 percent in the first
    few months of 2011, the trade ministry said. “Thereafter,
    inflation should moderate, especially in the second half of
    the year,” it said. Inflation accelerated to 4.6 percent in
    December, the biggest increase in two years.

    The government kept this year’s economic growth forecast
    at 4 percent to 6 percent, the ministry said. The fourth
    quarter growth rate was revised from a Jan. 3 estimate of
    6.9 percent and compares with the 5.3 percent median
    forecast of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

    The Monetary Authority of Singapore, which uses the
    exchange rate as its main tool to manage inflation,
    revalued the currency in April 2010 and said in October it
    would steepen and widen the currency’s trading band while
    continuing to seek a “modest and gradual appreciation.”
    The stance is next scheduled for review in April.

    The Singapore dollar is the second-best performer in Asia
    excluding Japan in the past year, rising about 10 percent.
    The currency was little changed at S$1.2789 versus its
    U.S. counterpart at 7:51 a.m. today.

    The economy grew 12 percent in the fourth quarter from a
    year earlier, compared with the median estimate for a 12.1
    percent gain in a Bloomberg News survey of 16
    economists.      (Source: Bloomberg)                                                                                                                    Market Strategists:
                                                                                                                                                            Nalin Chutchotitham
                                                                                                                                                            Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
                                                                                                                                                            Tel: 02-470-3235




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 17, 2011

                                                                                                       Economic Calendar
          Date / Time                   Country                                       Event                                      Period            Consensus                  Actual                  Prior                 Revised

       02/16/2011 04:00                      SK             Export Price Index (MoM)                                               JAN                     --                  -0.90%                 3.10%                      --
       02/16/2011 04:00                      SK             Export Price Index (YoY)                                               JAN                     --                  4.90%                  4.30%                      --
       02/16/2011 04:00                      SK             Import Price Index (MoM)                                               JAN                     --                  0.00%                  4.70%                      --
       02/16/2011 04:00                      SK             Import Price Index (YoY)                                               JAN                     --                 14.10%                 12.70%                      --
       02/16/2011 06:00                      SK             Unemployment Rate (SA)                                                 JAN                  3.70%                  3.60%                  3.60%                    3.50%
       02/16/2011 06:30                      AU             Westpac Leading Index (MoM)                                            DEC                     --                  0.80%                  0.00%                      --

       02/16/2011 06:50                      JN             Tertiary Industry Index (MoM)                                          DEC                  -0.60%                 -0.80%                 0.60%                    0.50%
       02/16/2011 07:00                      AU             DEWR Skilled Vacancies MoM                                             FEB                     --                  -1.20%                -4.60%                   -2.10%
       02/16/2011 07:01                      UK             Nationwide Consumer Confidence                                         JAN                     50                     47                    53                       54
       02/16/2011 07:30                      AU             New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM                                            JAN                     --                  -1.90%                 0.80%                    1.00%
       02/16/2011 07:30                      AU             New Motor Vehicle Sales YoY                                            JAN                     --                  -2.80%                -3.10%                   -3.20%
       02/16/2011 14:00                      EC             EU 25 New Car Registrations                                            JAN                     --                 -1.40%                 -3.20%                      --
       02/16/2011 16:30                      UK             Claimant Count Rate                                                    JAN                  4.50%                  4.50%                  4.50%                      --
       02/16/2011 16:30                      UK             Jobless Claims Change                                                  JAN                   -3.0K                  2.4K                  -4.1K                    -3.4K
       02/16/2011 16:30                      UK             Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY                                         DEC                  2.00%                  1.80%                  2.10%                      --
       02/16/2011 16:30                      UK             Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY                                         DEC                  2.30%                  2.30%                  2.30%                      --
       02/16/2011 16:30                      UK             ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths)                                          DEC                  7.90%                  7.90%                  7.90%                      --
       02/16/2011 17:02                       IT            Current Account (mlns euro)                                            DEC                     --                 -5382M                 -5007M                      --
       02/16/2011 17:30                      UK             Bank of England Inflation Report
       02/16/2011 17:32                      VN             Domestic Vehicle Sales (YoY)                                           JAN                     --                 48.00%                -17.10%                      --
       02/16/2011 19:00                      US             MBA Mortgage Applications                                            Feb-11                    --                 -9.50%                 -5.50%                      --
       02/16/2011 20:30                      CA             Leading Indicators MoM                                                 JAN                  0.40%                  0.30%                  0.50%                    0.40%
       02/16/2011 20:30                      CA             Int'l Securities Transactions                                          DEC                  9.000B                 9.626B                8.005B                   8.059B
       02/16/2011 20:30                      CA             Manufacturing Sales MoM                                                DEC                  3.00%                  0.40%                 -0.80%                   -0.60%
       02/16/2011 20:30                      US             Housing Starts                                                         JAN                   539K                   596K                   529K                    520K
       02/16/2011 20:30                      US             Building Permits                                                       JAN                   559K                   562K                   635K                    627K
       02/16/2011 20:30                      US             Housing Starts MOM%                                                    JAN                  1.90%                 14.60%                 -4.30%                   -5.10%
       02/16/2011 20:30                      US             Building Permits MOM%                                                  JAN                 -10.90%                -10.40%                16.70%                   15.30%
       02/16/2011 20:30                      US             Producer Price Index (MoM)                                             JAN                  0.80%                  0.80%                  1.10%                    0.90%
       02/16/2011 20:30                      US             PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM)                                             JAN                  0.20%                  0.50%                  0.20%                      --
       02/16/2011 20:30                      US             Producer Price Index (YoY)                                             JAN                  3.50%                  3.60%                  4.00%                      --
       02/16/2011 20:30                      US             PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY)                                             JAN                  1.20%                  1.60%                  1.30%                      --
       02/16/2011 21:15                      US             Industrial Production                                                  JAN                  0.50%                  -0.10%                 0.80%                    1.20%
       02/16/2011 21:15                      US             Capacity Utilization                                                   JAN                  76.30%                76.10%                 76.00%                   76.20%
       02/17/2011 02:00                      US             Minutes of FOMC Meeting
       02/17/2011 04:00                      SK             Department Store Sales YoY                                             JAN                     --                 24.00%                 11.60%                      --
       02/17/2011 04:00                      SK             Discount Store Sales YoY                                               JAN                     --                 21.40%                  2.90%                      --
       02/17/2011 07:00                      SI             GDP (QoQ)                                                               4Q                  5.30%                  3.90%                  6.90%                  -16.70%
       02/17/2011 07:00                      SI             GDP (YoY)                                                               4Q                  12.10%                12.00%                 12.50%                   10.50%
       02/17/2011 09:00                      CH             Actual FDI (YoY)                                                       JAN                 17.20%                 23.40%                 15.60%                      --
       02/17/2011 12:00                      JN             Coincident Index CI                                                  DEC F                     --                     --                  103.1                      --
    Source: Bloomberg




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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Cmb seminar khun kitti 2011 12-15
 

Thai Market Rises as Risk Appetite Improves, Dollar Falls on Geopolitical Tensions

  • 1. Capital Markets Research Feb 17, 2011 Thai Stock Market US Market Feb 16 Change Feb 16 Change SET Index Dow Jones 982.07 +13.58 12,288.17 +61.53 Market Turnover (Bt mn) 33,274.55 Nasdaq +3,098.89 2,825.56 +21.21 Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) +3,395.13 S&P 500 +486.38 1,336.32 +8.31 Thai Bond Market US 10 yr T-note (%) Feb 16 Change 3.62 +1 bp Total Return Index 200.26 US 2yr T-note (%) -0.01 0.84 +1 bp NYMEX crude ($/b) 84.99 +0.67 Yield curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr Feb 16 (%) 2.05 2.16 2.34 2.61 3.09 3.36 3.50 3.71 3.89 4.06 4.16 4.20 Chng 1D (bp) 2 2 3 1 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 -1 Chng 5D (bp) 2 3 4 2 8 11 -6 3 1 0 0 -1 Interbank Rates Feb 17 Feb 14 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr Overnight (%) 2.25 2.000-2.210 Feb 16 2.26500 2.32125 2.42125 2.47125 2.59625 2.65625 2.74750 Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m Feb 16 2.25000 2.25000 - - Feb 16 0.27250 0.31550 0.47550 THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m Feb 16 1.97060 1.90713 2.02892 2.16087 2.38148 2.58112 Feb 16 0.26300 0.31350 0.46520 SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr Feb 17 Bid/Ask 2.48/2.50 2.94/2.97 3.34/3.39 3.63/3.68 3.82/3.87 4.13/4.18 4.39/4.44 KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m) (against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import USD 30.37 30.47 30.72 1.33/6.48 EUR 41.1200 41.2563 41.7800 0.65/5.62 GBP 48.7800 48.9400 49.5275 1.97/6.49 JPY 0.3615 0.3628 0.3694 1.50/7.08 KBank Technical Analysis Feb 17 Feb 16 Support Resistance Trend Strategy THB (Onshore) 30.61 30.64 30.55 30.70 Sideway Sell USD near resistance JPY 83.56 83.65 83.20 82.60 Sideway Buy USD near support EUR/USD 1.3596 1.3566 1.3520 1.3620 Sideway Buy EUR near support Macro and Market Outlook • Global stock indices rose yesterday, supported by strong risk appetite and positive economic data in recent days. The dollar fell against major currencies on Iranian warship alert • FOMC minutes showed Fed is more optimistic with recovery but maintained an unchanged stance to Q.E.. Property market recovery remained choppy as housing starts rose but building permits slumped • BoE sees U.K. recovery difficult going forward and said inflation may take about two years to reach policy target of 2.0% FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD rebounded to 1.357 on renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East, leading investors to seek refuge in the dollar despite the ongoing risk appetite in global stock markets • USD/THB lower for the third day as foreign investors bought into local stocks. Benefits for Thai stocks could have been a result of improved sentiment in Asian assets while foreigners may be anticipating strong GDP growth data from the NESDB due next Monday Economic News Update • Singapore raised its inflation forecast for 2011 after the economy expanded at a record pace last year, sustaining pressure on the central bank to allow greater currency appreciation Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 2. KBank Daily Update Feb 17, 2011 Macro and Market Outlook US Treasuries and Thai rates Global stock indices rose yesterday, supported by strong Treasuries held losses from yesterday before a risk appetite and positive economic data in recent days. government report that economists said will show the cost The dollar fell against major currencies yesterday, of living in the U.S. climbed in January for a seventh month. however, as Israel said that two Iranian warships may be heading for the Suez Canal and Syria waters in an act Treasury yields are poised to rise, according to John deemed provocative. On top of the ongoing political Brynjolfsson, chief investment officer at Armored Wolf LLC protests in several Arab nations, the removal of U.S.- hedge fund. Labor Department figures will show the backed Hosni Mubarak may increase geopolitical risks in consumer price index advanced 0.3 percent in January, the region going forward. after December’s 0.4 percent gain, according to the median $/barrel forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. 105 100 Ten-year notes yielded 3.62 percent as of 9:35 a.m. in 95 Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. (Source: 90 Bloomberg) 85 S&P Index (bp) 80 75 1400 300 70 1350 280 65 1300 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 1250 260 1200 Arabian Gulf Dubai Fateh WTI oil price (RHS) Dated Brent 240 1150 1100 220 The BOE forecasts that inflation will accelerate from 1050 1000 200 January’s 4.0% and peak at 4.4% this year before easing Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 to the target of 2% by the mid-2012. At the same time, U.K.’s growth outlook has worsened due to the weak S&P Index 2-10 Spread (bps, RHS) growth in Q4 and market’s expectations of higher borrowing costs going forward. Given these assumptions, BOE Governor, Mervyn King, also said that recovery is Thai interest rate: likely to be bumpy. The pound fell after the release of the forecasts, dropping more than 0.5 percent against the Bond yields were little changed despite the surge in dollar in London’s morning trade session. interest rate swaps and swap points. Investors’ demand continued to support a range trade in bonds, with long-term Data from the U.S. housing market remained rather mixed. investors’ demand flowing into short-term bonds due to Housing starts rose by more-than-expected at about 14% rather flat yield curve. Long-term yields remain rather in January but building permits fell 10.4%, indicating that unattractive as investors look for more liquidity premium, builders still have uncertain confidence about recovery of leading to rather low demand of the 30 year bond at the housing sector. yesterday’s auction. (B/C at 1.75 for a Bt5bn auction) units (saar) 1200 In the swap markets, inflation and profit-taking remained 1100 the key drivers of swap points. THBFIX 6m rate rose 22bp 1000 to above 2.16%, its highest level since April 2009. The 900 implied 1-year rate to borrow THB rose to 2.58%, about 800 2bp above the 1-year IRS rate and only 3bp from the 1- 700 year bond yield. 600 % IRS yield curve change bp 500 400 5.0 160 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 140 4.0 120 building permits ('000) housing starts ('000) 3.0 100 Meanwhile, the U.S. producer price index rose sharply in 80 2.0 60 January by 0.8% mom (3.6% yoy) but policymakers do not think that higher prices from energy and food price surge 40 1.0 would remain for long. In any case, the non-food and non- 20 0.0 0 energy price index also rose by 0.5% mom, exceeding 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 12.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 yrs forecast of 0.2% as analysts said that January is the month that businesses normally try to gauge their pricing power. Spread (left axis) 16-Feb-11 16-Jan-11 FOMC minutes from the previous meeting in January showed that Fed is more optimistic with regards to the recovery but maintained an unchanged stance to its Q.E. program. Labor market conditions remained unsatisfactory but the Fed forecasts that unemployment rate would reduce to around 8.8 – 9.0% in Q4. As for GDP growth this year, the Fed expects a higher range of 3.4-3.9% instead of the 3.0-3.6% range expected in December. 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 3. KBank Daily Update Feb 17, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Wed 16-Feb-11 Tue 15-Feb-11 % Change 1.40 USD/THB 30.63 30.69 -0.20 1.38 USD/JPY 83.65 83.78 -0.16 1.36 EUR/USD 1.357 1.349 +0.58 1.34 GBP/USD 1.6092 1.6123 -0.19 1.32 USD/CHF 0.9589 0.9668 -0.82 1.30 USD/SGD 1.2787 1.2812 -0.20 1.28 USD/TWD 29.36 29.43 -0.24 1-Dec 11-Dec 21-Dec 31-Dec 10-Jan 20-Jan 30-Jan 9-Feb USD/KRW 1,116.0 1,121.3 -0.47 EUR/USD USD/PHP 43.59 43.62 -0.07 USD/IDR 8,876 8,900 -0.27 EUR/USD rebounded to 1.357 on renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East, leading investors to seek refuge in USD/MYR 3.046 3.055 -0.29 the dollar despite the ongoing risk appetite in global stcok USD/CNY 6.588 6.589 -0.02 markets. Data from Europe was light yesterday but we look Source: Reuters forward to the euro zone trade balance today. USD/JPY .FX Consensus Forecast remained in range trade, edging down slightly to 83.65 as Spot Dec 2011 the dollar weakened broadly. USD/THB 30.61 29.00 38.50 80 USD/JPY 83.56 89.00 38.00 81 37.50 EUR/USD 1.36 1.33 37.00 82 GBP/USD 1.61 1.61 36.50 83 USD/CNY 6.58 6.30 36.00 84 USD/SGD 1.28 1.23 35.50 USD/IDR 8,881 8,800 35.00 85 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb USD/MYR 3.04 2.96 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/PHP 43.39 42.00 USD/KRW 1,115 1,050 USD/THB closed at 30.63, lower for the third day as USD/TWD 29.34 28.35 foreign investors bought into local stocks. Benefits for Thai AUD/USD 1.00 0.98 stocks could have been a result of improved sentiment in NZD/USD 0.76 0.75 Asian assets while foreigners may also be increasing THB Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB exposure in anticipation of strong GDP growth data from the NESDB due next Monday. In addition, expectation of Currency Pair Targets th policy rate hike on March 9 is also strong. Spot Dec 2011 Due to the recent surge in swap points, we expect that USD/THB 30.61 29.0 exporters would increase their volume of forward USD/THB EUR/THB 41.61 37.0 selling in the near term. Expectation of more USD selling JPY/THB 36.64 29.5 flows could lead the spot rate lower as well, if sentiments in the global markets remain supportive. GBP/THB 49.25 43.7 CNY/THB 4.65 4.2 118 29 117 AUD/THB 30.75 26.0 116 30 115 CHF/THB 31.95 27.7 114 31 Source: KBank, Bloomberg 113 112 32 111 KBank NEER Index 110 33 Current 98.14 109 108 34 YTD + 5.39% Nov -09 Feb-10 May -10 Aug-10 Nov -10 Feb-11 vs 52 weeks ago + 4.25% Asian dollar index USD/THB (right-axis-inverted) vs 1mth ago - 1.47% vs 1 week ago + 0.42% vs 1 day ago + 0.01% vs long term average + 10.33% Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 4. KBank Daily Update Feb 17, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT and Government bonds Feb 16 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB113A 2.04 2.08 2.12 2.15 2.19 2.23 2.27 2.31 2.09 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB116A 2.64 2.56 2.49 2.41 2.34 2.27 2.19 2.12 1.79 LB416A 30.65 5,000 4.343/4.417 4.364700 1.75 LB11NA 3.54 3.29 3.04 2.79 2.55 2.30 2.05 1.80 1.31 CB11307A 0.04 95,000 2.070/2.120 2.104500 1.08 LB123A 4.16 3.81 3.46 3.11 2.76 2.41 2.06 1.71 1.11 Source: ThaiBMA LB12NA 5.31 4.72 4.12 3.53 2.94 2.35 1.76 1.17 0.32 LB133A 6.07 5.35 4.63 3.91 3.19 2.47 1.75 1.04 0.07 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB137A 6.61 5.77 4.93 4.09 3.24 2.40 1.56 0.72 -0.37 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB13OA 7.03 6.09 5.15 4.22 3.28 2.34 1.41 0.47 -0.72 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB143A 7.43 6.43 5.43 4.43 3.43 2.42 1.42 0.42 -0.83 CB11307A 0.04 95,000 16-Feb-11 07-Mar-11 - LB145A 7.97 6.85 5.72 4.60 3.47 2.35 1.22 0.10 -1.28 CB11308A 0.04 80,000 17-Feb-11 08-Mar-11 - LB145B 7.97 6.84 5.72 4.59 3.47 2.34 1.22 0.09 -1.28 BOT152A 4.00 15,000 22-Feb-11 24-Feb-15 - LB14DA 8.76 7.45 6.14 4.83 3.52 2.20 0.89 -0.42 -1.98 CB11324C 0.08 25,000 22-Feb-11 24-Mar-11 - LB155A 9.51 8.02 6.52 5.02 3.52 2.02 0.52 -0.97 -2.72 CB11526B 0.25 12,000 22-Feb-11 26-May-11 - LB157A 9.37 7.91 6.45 4.99 3.53 2.07 0.61 -0.85 -2.56 - CB11825A 0.50 15,000 22-Feb-11 25-Aug-11 LB15DA 10.34 8.64 6.93 5.23 3.52 1.82 0.11 -1.59 -3.54 Source: ThaiBMA LB167A 10.96 9.12 7.29 5.46 3.63 1.79 -0.04 -1.87 -3.95 Auction Calendar of Government Bonds LB16NA 11.52 9.56 7.60 5.63 3.67 1.71 -0.25 -2.21 -4.42 LB171A 11.59 9.62 7.65 5.68 3.72 1.75 -0.22 -2.18 -4.40 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB175A 12.10 10.00 7.91 5.81 3.72 1.62 -0.47 -2.56 -4.90 LB25DA 15.05 8,000 23-Feb-11 12-Dec-25 - LB183A 13.19 10.83 8.48 6.12 3.77 1.41 -0.94 -3.29 -5.89 LB183B 12.88 10.60 8.32 6.04 3.76 1.48 -0.80 -3.08 -5.60 Source: ThaiBMA LB191A 13.86 11.34 8.82 6.30 3.79 1.27 -1.24 -3.76 -6.52 LB196A 14.80 12.04 9.29 6.54 3.78 1.03 -1.72 -4.47 -7.46 LB198A 14.59 11.90 9.21 6.52 3.82 1.13 -1.56 -4.24 -7.18 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months LB19DA 14.89 12.14 9.38 6.63 3.88 1.12 -1.63 -4.38 -7.38 during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury LB213A 16.01 12.99 9.97 6.96 3.95 0.93 -2.08 -5.09 -8.35 cash balance. LB214A 15.91 12.94 9.96 6.99 4.01 1.04 -1.93 -4.90 -8.12 LB22NA 17.98 14.51 11.04 7.56 4.10 0.63 -2.84 -6.30 -10.01 LB233A 18.03 14.55 11.07 7.59 4.12 0.64 -2.83 -6.30 -10.02 LB236A 19.48 15.64 11.80 7.96 4.12 0.29 -3.54 -7.37 -11.45 LB244A 19.60 15.74 11.88 8.03 4.17 0.32 -3.53 -7.38 -11.47 LB24DA 20.22 16.21 12.21 8.21 4.21 0.22 -3.78 -7.77 -12.01 LB267A 20.71 16.58 12.46 8.34 4.22 0.10 -4.01 -8.12 -12.48 LB283A 21.95 17.52 13.09 8.67 4.25 -0.17 -4.59 -9.00 -13.66 LB296A 23.66 18.80 13.95 9.10 4.25 -0.59 -5.43 -10.27 -15.35 LB383A 27.89 21.99 16.11 10.22 4.34 -1.53 -7.40 -13.26 -19.37 LB396A 29.22 23.00 16.78 10.57 4.36 -1.84 -8.03 -14.22 -20.65 Average 12.97 10.63 8.30 5.97 3.64 1.31 -1.02 -3.35 -5.93 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 5. KBank Daily Update Feb 17, 2011 Economic News Update Singapore Raises 2011 Inflation Forecast After Record Expansion: Singapore raised its inflation forecast for 2011 after the economy expanded at a record pace last year, sustaining pressure on the central bank to allow greater currency appreciation. Consumer prices may climb 3 percent to 4 percent this year, up from a previous forecast of 2 percent to 3 percent, the trade ministry said in a statement today. Gross domestic product rose an annualized 3.9 percent in the three months to Dec. 31 from the previous quarter, when it contracted a revised 16.7 percent, it said. The economy expanded a revised 14.5 percent in 2010. Singapore’s growth is forecast to slow in 2011 to less than half of last year’s pace, when an economic rebound from the 2009 global recession prompted employers to boost wages and spurred property prices and tourist arrivals to unprecedented levels. Still, inflationary pressures may force the central bank to join other Asian policy makers in tightening monetary policy. “The economy should continue to fare well in coming quarters with services playing a key role,” Vishnu Varathan, an economist at Capital Economics (Asia) Pte in Singapore, said before the report. “The risk is that inflation could rise further to uncomfortably high levels in coming months. Policy settings will likely have to be tightened further to keep inflation under control.” Consumer prices may rise 5 percent to 6 percent in the first few months of 2011, the trade ministry said. “Thereafter, inflation should moderate, especially in the second half of the year,” it said. Inflation accelerated to 4.6 percent in December, the biggest increase in two years. The government kept this year’s economic growth forecast at 4 percent to 6 percent, the ministry said. The fourth quarter growth rate was revised from a Jan. 3 estimate of 6.9 percent and compares with the 5.3 percent median forecast of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Monetary Authority of Singapore, which uses the exchange rate as its main tool to manage inflation, revalued the currency in April 2010 and said in October it would steepen and widen the currency’s trading band while continuing to seek a “modest and gradual appreciation.” The stance is next scheduled for review in April. The Singapore dollar is the second-best performer in Asia excluding Japan in the past year, rising about 10 percent. The currency was little changed at S$1.2789 versus its U.S. counterpart at 7:51 a.m. today. The economy grew 12 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, compared with the median estimate for a 12.1 percent gain in a Bloomberg News survey of 16 economists. (Source: Bloomberg) Market Strategists: Nalin Chutchotitham Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com Tel: 02-470-3235 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 6. KBank Daily Update Feb 17, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 02/16/2011 04:00 SK Export Price Index (MoM) JAN -- -0.90% 3.10% -- 02/16/2011 04:00 SK Export Price Index (YoY) JAN -- 4.90% 4.30% -- 02/16/2011 04:00 SK Import Price Index (MoM) JAN -- 0.00% 4.70% -- 02/16/2011 04:00 SK Import Price Index (YoY) JAN -- 14.10% 12.70% -- 02/16/2011 06:00 SK Unemployment Rate (SA) JAN 3.70% 3.60% 3.60% 3.50% 02/16/2011 06:30 AU Westpac Leading Index (MoM) DEC -- 0.80% 0.00% -- 02/16/2011 06:50 JN Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) DEC -0.60% -0.80% 0.60% 0.50% 02/16/2011 07:00 AU DEWR Skilled Vacancies MoM FEB -- -1.20% -4.60% -2.10% 02/16/2011 07:01 UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence JAN 50 47 53 54 02/16/2011 07:30 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM JAN -- -1.90% 0.80% 1.00% 02/16/2011 07:30 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales YoY JAN -- -2.80% -3.10% -3.20% 02/16/2011 14:00 EC EU 25 New Car Registrations JAN -- -1.40% -3.20% -- 02/16/2011 16:30 UK Claimant Count Rate JAN 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% -- 02/16/2011 16:30 UK Jobless Claims Change JAN -3.0K 2.4K -4.1K -3.4K 02/16/2011 16:30 UK Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY DEC 2.00% 1.80% 2.10% -- 02/16/2011 16:30 UK Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY DEC 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% -- 02/16/2011 16:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) DEC 7.90% 7.90% 7.90% -- 02/16/2011 17:02 IT Current Account (mlns euro) DEC -- -5382M -5007M -- 02/16/2011 17:30 UK Bank of England Inflation Report 02/16/2011 17:32 VN Domestic Vehicle Sales (YoY) JAN -- 48.00% -17.10% -- 02/16/2011 19:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Feb-11 -- -9.50% -5.50% -- 02/16/2011 20:30 CA Leading Indicators MoM JAN 0.40% 0.30% 0.50% 0.40% 02/16/2011 20:30 CA Int'l Securities Transactions DEC 9.000B 9.626B 8.005B 8.059B 02/16/2011 20:30 CA Manufacturing Sales MoM DEC 3.00% 0.40% -0.80% -0.60% 02/16/2011 20:30 US Housing Starts JAN 539K 596K 529K 520K 02/16/2011 20:30 US Building Permits JAN 559K 562K 635K 627K 02/16/2011 20:30 US Housing Starts MOM% JAN 1.90% 14.60% -4.30% -5.10% 02/16/2011 20:30 US Building Permits MOM% JAN -10.90% -10.40% 16.70% 15.30% 02/16/2011 20:30 US Producer Price Index (MoM) JAN 0.80% 0.80% 1.10% 0.90% 02/16/2011 20:30 US PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) JAN 0.20% 0.50% 0.20% -- 02/16/2011 20:30 US Producer Price Index (YoY) JAN 3.50% 3.60% 4.00% -- 02/16/2011 20:30 US PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) JAN 1.20% 1.60% 1.30% -- 02/16/2011 21:15 US Industrial Production JAN 0.50% -0.10% 0.80% 1.20% 02/16/2011 21:15 US Capacity Utilization JAN 76.30% 76.10% 76.00% 76.20% 02/17/2011 02:00 US Minutes of FOMC Meeting 02/17/2011 04:00 SK Department Store Sales YoY JAN -- 24.00% 11.60% -- 02/17/2011 04:00 SK Discount Store Sales YoY JAN -- 21.40% 2.90% -- 02/17/2011 07:00 SI GDP (QoQ) 4Q 5.30% 3.90% 6.90% -16.70% 02/17/2011 07:00 SI GDP (YoY) 4Q 12.10% 12.00% 12.50% 10.50% 02/17/2011 09:00 CH Actual FDI (YoY) JAN 17.20% 23.40% 15.60% -- 02/17/2011 12:00 JN Coincident Index CI DEC F -- -- 103.1 -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.