Saahil Sud (fka Maxdalury) talks about when it makes sense to chalk or not chalk when playing MLB DFS.

1. Course 3: MLB Strategy
To Chalk or Not to Chalk
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Lesson Overview
● Chalk overview
● When to go chalk
● When to fade chalk
● How to implement chalking
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Chalk Overview
What are chalk players?
● “Obvious” favorites that are highly owned and likely to perform well
● If 7 out of 10 lineups in a tournament have Bryce Harper, he would be considered to be
70% owned
How do chalk players affect cash lineups?
● Chalk players are considered safe picks, so several chalk plays could be included
How do chalk players affect tournament lineups?
● Don’t ignore chalk, but consider going against the grain in some slots
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Factors Behind Ownership
Source: DFS Mancave
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Ownership Factor Notes
Vegas Over / Under, Predicted Runs
Obvious Matchups Hitters vs. Strasberg will likely be low-owned
Value Price changes, disparity between FanDuel / DraftKings
Top Hitter and Pitcher Parks Coors, Minnesota, Texas (Hitters) PNC, Marlins (Pitchers)
QL Wire Content “Expert picks” usually lead to higher-owned

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Streaky Play’s Effect on DK Ownership Historically
Source: DraftKings Playbook
● Historically on DraftKings, a player is owned 3% after below-average game
● However, the average ownership jumps to 4% after one game of above-average play
● That trend continues with each successive above average performance
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Predicting Player Ownership
Source: Fantasy Labs
Statistic Correlation with Actual Ownership %
Batting Order 0.1328
Projected Runs 0.1868
Player Salary 0.2891
● None are strongly correlated but player salary is the strongest indicator (perfect
correlation has a value of 1)
● Predicting ownership is an imperfect exercise
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When to Go Chalk
Saahil’s $10,000 Lineup - FanDuel Grand Slam
● Clayon Kershaw ($12,900, 35.5% owned)
● Derek Dietrich ($2,100, 49.9% owned)
● Jonathan Villar ($2,800, 21% owned)
● Domingo Santana ($2,500, 10.4% owned)
Why did it make sense
to go chalk here?
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When to Go Chalk
Best Practice Example
Top player with great matchup Kershaw vs San Diego Padres
Backup player moves into leadoff spot Marlins’ Derek Dietrich replaces Dee Gordon
Correlated players Milwaukee’s Santana and Villar
Dietrich Gordon Villar Santana
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When to Fade Chalk
● Baseball is a high volatility sport
○ Value in fading chalk
● Ex. When Ownership > Probability of High Output
○ Dietrich’s probability to outperform value is 20%
○ His projected ownership is 40%
○ Result: Fade him
Dietrich
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