www.cir-strategy.com/events

1. Future Transmission Networks
Richard Smith
Future Transmission Networks Manager
4th Annual Smart Grids & Cleanpower 2012 Conference
www.cir-strategy.com/events

2. The future: efficiency, decarbonisation
and electrification
Electricity Heat Transport
Smart Meters & Efficiency and
Insulate and reduce innovation
Appliance efficiency
Heat pump
and decarbonise
Decarbonised electricity… new homes & retrofit transport
Gas backup Biomethane
& embedded
generation CNG
De-carbonise heat
2

3. Network capacity will need to increase
Distribution networks will need to Distribution network operation will
more than double their capacity… change in future…
¾ More distributed and micro generation (solar
2010 2030 2050 PV, CHP etc.)
Household ¾ Electric vehicle and heat pump demand
~2.5kW ~4.7kW ~7kW
demand* increasing load dramatically in hot spot areas
Number of
26m 31m 36m
homes
Smart network initiatives will see a
Embedded
~8GW ~15GW ~20GW move away from radial operation…
generation
¾ Grid Supply Points being permanently
Network interconnected, opening up the possibility of
loading ~75 ~170 ~300
loop flows through the distribution networks
(kW/km)
¾ Possibility of local dispatch within Distribution
Network scale X2.3 X4.0 networks to control local flows
* After diversity average Network scale vs
¾ Two-way, variable power flows increase with
peak demand 2010 levels demand side response
3

4. When will capacity need to increase?
Emissions intensity pre appliance (g/kWh)
1,000 Window for transport
800
Window for heat
600
400
200
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Electricity (total grid) Marginal electricty for transport Marginal electricty for heat
Natural Gas Gas-Biogas mix Oil
Oil-Biofuel mix
Appliance efficiency will also determine the optimum transition point
and may extend the window
4

5. Where might this happen?
5

6. Transmission is already largely smart
Network Output
Condition monitoring Measures Risk management
Remote asset
management and Voltage Control
monitoring (RAMM)
Circuit Rating
Auto-switching
Enhancement
schemes
Operational Tripping
Schemes (OTS) Power Flow Control
Remote Substation
Control
6

7. Now to 2020: generation build more
significant than EVs and heat pumps
existing electricity network
interconnectors
Change under Gone Green (GW)
potential wind farm sites
40
potential nuclear sites
30
Norway 20
10
0
Ireland (10)
Netherlands (20)
(30)
Belgium Generation Demand
Gas Nuclear Coal
France Hydro Interconnector Wind
Biomass Marine Gas
France Oil Electric cars* Heat pumps* 7
* Electric vehicle and heat pump at mid-range peak demand.

8. The need for more smart actions
Scotland to England unconstrained transfers
Gone Green Scenario simulated with ELSI
12000.0
Volume of required operational
smart operation task increasing
10000.0 management actions increasing
8000.0 2020 proposed intact netw ork firm N-2 capacity
6000.0
2013
MW
2 x HVDC links + Series compensation
2020
4000.0
2013 planned intact netw ork firm N-2 capacity
2000.0
0.0
0.0 1000.0 2000.0 3000.0 4000.0 5000.0 6000.0 7000.0 8000.0
-2000.0
Hours 8

9. Balancing supply and demand
Variable generation Active distribution networks
MW
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Smart(er) grids
800
600
& meters,
400
200
energy storage
0
01-Jan
10-Jan
20-Jan
30-Jan
05-Jan
25-Jan
15-Jan
Large generation Generation Active demand
Demand 60
Peak Commuting Time
Peak Commuting Time
55
Electricity Demand (GW)
50
2020 Demand ~ 15
GWh (daily) - 1.5
45 million vehicles
Optimal Charging
Period Typical winter daily
demand
40
12,000 miles p.a.
35
30
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
Time of Day
Time of use tariffs
Smarter transmission
Inflexible generation Smart zones Distributed generation
HVDC
Series
compensation
WAM
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10. 500
0
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
00
03 :00
06:00
09:00
12:00
15:00
18:00
02/01/2012
21:00
00:00
03 :00
06:00
09:00
12:00
15:00
18:00
03/01/2012
21:00
00:00
03 :00
06:00
09:00
12:00
15 :00
18:00
04/01/2012
When the wind blows…
21:00
00:00
03 :00
06:00
09:00
12:00
Wind Forecast
15 :00
18:00
05/01/2012
21:00
00:00
03:00
06:00
Wind Actual
09:00
12:00
15 :00
18:00
06/01/2012
Power
21:00
00:00
03:00
06:00
4m/s
09:00
12:00
15 :00
18:00
07/01/2012
21:00
00:00
03 :00
15m/s
06:00
Wind Speed
09:00
12:00
15 :00
18:00
08/01/2012
21:00
25m/s
:0
0
Wind Cut-out 3rd January 2012
10

11. Making transmission smarter
¾ Optimising asset utilisation
¾ Improving power system access
Fit for Purpose Network
¾ Enhancing boundary transfer capability.
¾ Better network modeling and prediction
Timely provision of ¾ Improved planning & operational flexibility
information to inform
¾ Balancing generation with demand
decisions
¾ Intelligent network automation
Develop services to deliver ¾ Managing the generation mix
energy securely and ¾ Flexible networks
efficiently
¾ Demand side management.
11

12. New technology & systems
System Monitoring & Visualisation
¾ Widespread installation of sensors and monitors
¾ Network expansion
¾ Data storage and capacity management
¾ Applications to support real time management
Network Automation
¾ Assist Control Engineer workload
¾ Manage complex processes
¾ Automatic fault restoration
¾ Foundations of regional autonomy
Wide Area Protection & Control
¾ Manage network stability
¾ Coordinate power flow and voltage control
between regions
¾ System integrity protection schemes
¾ Regional congestion management
12

13. Control philosophy change
Primary asset Control Philosophy
cost for given capacity Transition
very hard HIGHER
Traditional approach.
People centric
process.
Conventional asset
Planning/Consenting Difficulty
N-2
(lead time)
ENSG approach
Assets worked
dynamically into very
short term ratings
Steady state flows
Dynamic flows Solving peak half hour
Need to solve all points and implies operable at all points
transitions
LOWER
Operator Response Time
hard
<1 sec 0-5 mins 5-20 mins 20 mins – 6 hrs
post fault continuous rating
CONTROL RISK
13

14. Delivering resilience
Process Safety
Robust automation Operational
complexity
Understand complexity
Identify Fail safe modes
Transmission
Develop end to end solutions
Smarter Transmission
System Awareness
Good prediction
System monitoring
Scenario analysis
Modelling validation
Quality of information
Network management
Regional autonomy
Information flow
System Network
Managing Third Party actions security utilisation
Interfaces with legacy systems
14
Coordinate

15. At the heart of the energy transformation…
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