Tony Fransos

1. Transport’s Influence on
Demography
Tony Fransos

2. 2
Demographic and Land Use Inputs
Different forecasts from high quality demographers
Parsing demographic changes
Attempts to amend demography = EPIC FAIL
The Vibe : New Infrastructure increases value
The Hunch: Infrastructure causes population/employment
increase
Totally Painful

3. 3
Objectives
Try to identify how strong the influence is
Try to identify ways to model the influence in our models.
Not in a LUTI way, keeping Land use out of our 4-Step gems
Aim to find a way to judge uncertainty in forecasts

4. 4
Demographic Issues
Models for Planning
Whole cities or regions
Aggregate measures of performance
Models for Infrastructure
Specific corridors
Particular facilities

5. 5
Exogenous Inputs
Economic
Value of Time
Fuel Price
PT Fare
Toll Charges
Socio-political
Special Generators
Demography
Population
Employment

6. 6
Uncertainty and Sensitivity
Mostly easy
But not Population and Employment
Depends on Size of the Pie
And the way it’s distributed
Seldom tested meaningfully

7. 7
Our Hunch

8. 8
Our Hunch

9. 9
The Mechanism
DISTRIBUTION
Mode Choice
Route Choice

10. 10
Influence on Population
Affordability
Accessibility
Especially to jobs
BUT
Close to family
Close to entertainment
Close to Uni
Downsizing

11. 11
Influence on Price of Property

12. 12
Natural Growth – 2006 to 2011

13. 13
Interstate Migration 2006 to 2011

14. 14
International Migration – 2006 to
2011

15. 15
Influence on Business/Work Places
Low Costs
Accessibility
Especially to other businesses
Close to Transport Facilities
Especially Transport and Logistics Industry

16. 16
Decisions to Model
Business
Low property cost
Accessibility - Close to transport
facilities
Close to other businesses
People
Nature
Babies in locations of child bearing women
Age n+1 = Age n - deaths
Migration
Affordability
Close to family/Similar People
Close to work
Close to schools
Close to transport facilities
Coming of agers – To .. like ... Sick locations,
man
Empty nesters
Become grey nomads
Never leave home

17. 17
Sydney Suburbs Employment 2016

18. 18
Sydney Suburbs Population 2016

19. 19
What still needs to be done
Produce some comparisons of forecasts
Make the modelling method more rigourous
Remember that we’re not replacing expert forecasts
this is an exercise in rationalising our experts’ forecasts of
population

20. 20
Summary and Conclusion
This is still all back of the envelope
Is aimed at transport understanding of modelling inputs
and outputs
Will never replace proper demographic forecasting