1. ACCOUNTABLE
ADVICE
M a r c h / A p r i l + 2 0 1 5
Ask a trust officer + PG2
Risks of amateur trustees + PG3
Women and Social Security + PG5
F i n a n c i a l P l a n n i n g
I n v e s t m e n t M a n a g e m e n t
Tr u s t & E s t a t e S e r v i c e s
P r i v a t e B a n k i n g
R e t i re m e n t P l a n S e r v i c e s
A good year
The economic recovery in the U.S.,
now in its sixth year, produced much
good news in 2014:
• The SP 500 rose 11.4%, and the
Dow Jones Industrial Average posted
a 7.5% gain on the year, following the
stellar performance of stocks in 2013.
• The six months of economic growth
that included the 5% spurt in the
third quarter was the best half-year
period since 2003.
• 2.7 million jobs were added through
November, the best year for employ-
ment growth since 1999.
• Oil prices declined sharply in 2014,
bringing major relief at the gas pump
to U.S. consumers. All signs point to
lower oil prices for the intermediate
future.
But the picture is not entirely rosy,
it never is. While the U.S. is doing well,
Europe and Japan are not. Countries
using the Euro have not yet surpassed
their pre-recession economic output, as
the U.S. has. The Dow Jones World
Index, which excludes the U.S., fell 5.5%
in 2014. Robust, stable economic growth
requires strong economic partners.
CAPE fears
Higher stock prices are powered
by two factors: increased profits and
increased investor optimism. Optimism
is generally measured by the price/earn-
ings ratio. A high ratio means that inves-
tors are willing to pay a high price for
future profits, and it suggests that they
expect those profits to grow.
Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller has
traced a cyclically adjusted price earn-
ings (CAPE) ratio from 1871 to the pres-
ent. His CAPE ratio includes an inflation
adjustment and a ten-year time frame
for smoothing annual variability. For the
20th century, the average CAPE ratio
was 15.21. At this writing, the CAPE
ratio stands at 27.34. Speaking histori-
cally, that number is in the stratosphere.
That’s where it was in 2007, just before
the financial meltdown. In 1929, before
the Black Friday crash, it stood 32.56.
Before the dot-com bubble burst, CAPE
reached 43.83.
A high CAPE ratio for the stock mar-
ket is not necessarily a sell signal, even
though it may be suggestive of “irra-
tional exuberance.” High stock prices
may also be a reflection of the absence
of satisfactory alternatives for investing.
However, once the CAPE has reached
high levels, future increases in stock
prices will have to be fueled primarily by
increased profits, not improved investor
sentiment.
Continued on page 4.
3. a red flag should go up when any one holding accounts for
more than 10% of a trust. Problems with that holding could
lead to lawsuits by disgruntled beneficiaries against the trustee.
On the other hand, the person who creates a trust may override
the diversification requirements. For example, shares in a family
business could be exempted from the diversification mandate.
Biased distributions. One of the most important benefits
of trust-based wealth management is delivery of financial
resources to multiple generations, today and in the future.
Trouble is, finding the appropriate balance between current
and future interests is not easy. Trustees need to document
reasons for allowing or denying invasion of a trust for par-
ticular beneficiaries, for example. What’s more, the investment
strategy chosen for a trust may inadvertently favor some ben-
eficiaries over others. When a family member is a trustee, the
issue of bias can become quite emotional.
Expecting a payday. Trustees should be paid, but benefi-
ciaries don’t always see it that way. When the trustee is a family
member with an interest in the trust, the payment issues can
be especially sensitive. Compensation matters should be settled
before the trustee assumes the duties of trust management.
Continued on page 4
Risks of amateur trustees
A family member has the advantage of personal under-
standing of the trust beneficiaries, and that is no small thing.
Unfortunately, family members usually lack experience and
ability in several other crucial areas.
Amateur trustees—watch out for these traps
There are many ways for a trustee to fail to meet the obliga-
tions of sound trust management.
Faulty records. There’s much more to trust accounting
than balancing checking accounts and keeping track of portfo-
lio statements. Income, asset values and distributions must be
reported to the beneficiaries on a regular basis. “Beneficiaries”
refers not only to those who receive current trust income, but
also to those who will receive the assets when the trust termi-
nates. We suggest a team approach, including a trust attorney,
a tax professional and an investment manager. Note: We are
pleased to serve as agent for a trustee!
Failure to diversify. Laws governing the prudent invest-
ment of trust assets vary from state to state. In general, concen-
tration of assets should be avoided. According to many experts,
More and more affluent families are turning to trust-based solutions for their
wealth management and inheritance problems. However, a trust is only as good
as its trustee. Have you been asked to serve as trustee, perhaps for a parent’s
trust? Do you plan to ask your child to be your trustee? Although such a course
of action may be a natural impulse, it may not be the best approach.
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