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Capturing the opportunities from
the New Digital World

A view from the top
Barcelona, February 15th, 2011




César Alierta
Chairman & CEO
Index


    01                A growth and dynamic industry



    02                ICT sector challenges




MWC, Barcelona 2011                           2
A growth and dynamic industry




MWC, Barcelona 2011   4
ICT industry : back to solid growth rates


                         (Bn USD)                 2010F            CAGR       CAGR
                                                ICT Market       2007-10F   2010F-14F

                  North America                  1,042.9          1.3%        4.4%

                  Europe                          916.0           -3.5%       2.3%


                  Asia & Pacific                  894.0           6.3%        5.4%

                  Latin America                   263.6           5.9%        6.1%

                  Middle East and                 212.4           3.5%        4.8%
                  Africa
                  Worldwide                      3,329.0          1.5%        4.3%


   Source: Gartner Market Databook (Oct 2010)



MWC, Barcelona 2011                                          6
Customers




We are very positive about our industry future           Apps               Devices




                                 Customers




                                   Great
                                   Digital
                       Apps &    Opportunity   Devices
                      Services




MWC, Barcelona 2011                       8
Customers




 Telco industry growth will be driven by Fixed and Mobile                         Apps               Devices




 Broadband

                Total accesses                          Net adds of accesses
                        (Million)                             2010F – 2014F
CAGR

4.1%                                                                     91% Emerging
                                                                              markets
                                                2.018 Mill

7.3%                                                                     85% Mobile



6.6%                                                         CAGR 2010 - 2014

                                                     MBB: 31%            FBB: 11%
* BB: Fixed BB + 3G+ suscribers)
Source: Pyramid Data Forecast (Jan 2011)

MWC, Barcelona 2011                        10
Customers




Improved user interface devices and M2M new applications             Apps               Devices




are boosting demand growth




                                        From Internet of People to
                                            Internet of Things


MWC, Barcelona 2011             12
Customers




Massive smartphone uptake                                                                                         Apps               Devices




                                                        Worldwide Smartphone Installed Base*
                                                                     (Million)

                                         CAGR 2010-2014
                                  Emerging Economies*: 32%

                                  Advanced Economies: 24%




   Source: Strategy Analytics
   Emerging markets: Latin America, Eastern Europe, MEA, and Asia Pacific (ex-Japan, South Korea and Australia)

MWC, Barcelona 2011                                                        14
Customers




    Digitalization of the real economy broadens the scope of                                              Apps               Devices




    our market

                                                           Customer expenditure breakdown 2009




Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis - U.S. national income and product accounts (NIPAs) (Aug 2010)


  MWC, Barcelona 2011                                                                        16
Telco players have a key role to play in the ICT ecosystem




                          Telco as service
                             platforms




MWC, Barcelona 2011              18
ICT sector challenges




MWC, Barcelona 2011   20
Customers




This growth opportunity is supported by networks       Apps               Devices




                                 Customers




                                 Networks
                       Apps &                Devices
                      Services




MWC, Barcelona 2011                     22
Network




Development of NGN and upgrade of existing ones is needed                                         Apps             Devices




to allow the exponential broadband growth
                                                                 Technology evolution


                                                                                 TODAY
                                                   Broadband capacity /user


                                                                                       FTTH
                                                                                      NG-GPON
                                                                               FTTH
                                                                               GPON             IMT
                                                                        VDSL                Advanced
                                                               ADSL2+                 LTE
                                                        ADSL
                                                                           HSxPA
                                                                  UMTS
                                                         EDGE

   Price no longer a barrier for uptake of mobile data                                        Time




    Heavy investments are needed - Who is going to invest?

                                              24
Mobile data growth increases the importance of the Fixed
 network

        For the evolution of mobile network…              … Fixed network will be key

                                                                     BACKHAUL
                                                        Every Mobile Base Station will have to
                                   LTE Nodes capacity
                                                         be connected by Fiber Fixed Network
New      Wireless    Access
Technologies require bigger             > x10
network capabilities                                            POINTS OF PRESENCE
                                                            Massive Points of Presence in
                                                            buildings (home/enterprise)
                                  # Nodes (long term)
New      Wireless    Network
                                        > x10                       MULTIMODE
Architecture need sites nearer
to the customers                                        Intensive Use of Technologies usually
                                                         characterized as “fixed” ones: WiFi,
                                                                    all-IP, video…

Growth of mobile traffic                >> x10                    INTERNATIONAL
                                                         Strength of capacities in submarine
                                                                 cables and satellite


MWC, Barcelona 2011                               26
Network




      Expected traffic increase will require incremental CapEx,                                                                           Apps             Devices




      both in Fixed and Mobile Networks
                                                                           A.T. Kearney EU 27 Capex required estimation
                                                                                                      Cumulated 2010 - 2014

                   Bn €                                                          CapEx Trendline                      Additional CapEx required
                                                                                  at current level


                                                                                                                          ~ 10
              Fixed Internet
                 Network                                                                    ~26                           +
                                                                                                                          ~ 116 in FTTx accesses


           Mobile Networks
            (3G and LTE)                                                                   ~ 65                               ~ 21 Bn€



Source: Oppenheimer, A.T. Kearney analysis. FTTx investment assuming 50% household coverage by 2014


       MWC, Barcelona 2011                                                                             28
Telcos are the main contributors to investment and employment in
 our industry
                                e                                  European Market                                                                                 Latam Market
                          ra tiv
                    st
                Illu
                                                 Investment                                  Employment                                       Investment                                  Employment
                                                   (CAPEX)                                                                                      (CAPEX)


          Telco                                  37 billion€1                                2.0 million2                                      13 billion€                                  0.7 million

             IT
                                                  3 billion€1                                2.9 million3                                     0.4 billion€                                 0.5 million

        Internet
                                             0.03 billion€1                                       10,0005                                  0.01 billion€                                           >3,000



                Content and service providers hardly contribute to network costs

1 The 2009 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard

2 European Business. Facts and figures. Edition 2009. Eurostat. EU-27 in 2005
                                                                                                                                      5 Estimated Google’s employees in Europe from 20,222 worldwide (December 2008)
3 European Business. Facts and figures. Edition 2009. Eurostat. EU-27 in 2006 for Business services-Computer and related activities     http://investor.google.com/releases/2008Q4_google_earnings.html
4 Digiworld-2009. IDATE                                                                                                               6 Online advertising – Western Europe – Strategy Analytics




 International Office                                                                                            30                                                                                       30
Current regulation doesn’t guarantee necessary investments

                                            Telco
                                          operators




          Regulated                                                        Fragmented

       Not regulated                                                       Concentrated

                                      Communications,
                                         Apps. &
                                         Services




                       Device suppliers                 Internet players




MWC, Barcelona 2011                             32
Conclusions

          Our industry has very positive growth prospects, driven by mobile
          data

          New business models are needed to finance network investments that
          will make sustainable the whole internet ecosystem based on a virtuous
          circle of growth . Cooperation within the industry is essential to get
          the most of the digital world

          New engagement of telecom operators with content providers is
          needed to be able to deliver contents with new quality requirements

          Regulation should allow the recovery of network costs, promoting
          investment, traffic efficiency and fostering new services development




MWC, Barcelona 2011                      34
Telefonica mwc barcelona

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Telefonica mwc barcelona

  • 1. Capturing the opportunities from the New Digital World A view from the top Barcelona, February 15th, 2011 César Alierta Chairman & CEO
  • 2. Index 01 A growth and dynamic industry 02 ICT sector challenges MWC, Barcelona 2011 2
  • 3. A growth and dynamic industry MWC, Barcelona 2011 4
  • 4. ICT industry : back to solid growth rates (Bn USD) 2010F CAGR CAGR ICT Market 2007-10F 2010F-14F North America 1,042.9 1.3% 4.4% Europe 916.0 -3.5% 2.3% Asia & Pacific 894.0 6.3% 5.4% Latin America 263.6 5.9% 6.1% Middle East and 212.4 3.5% 4.8% Africa Worldwide 3,329.0 1.5% 4.3% Source: Gartner Market Databook (Oct 2010) MWC, Barcelona 2011 6
  • 5. Customers We are very positive about our industry future Apps Devices Customers Great Digital Apps & Opportunity Devices Services MWC, Barcelona 2011 8
  • 6. Customers Telco industry growth will be driven by Fixed and Mobile Apps Devices Broadband Total accesses Net adds of accesses (Million) 2010F – 2014F CAGR 4.1% 91% Emerging markets 2.018 Mill 7.3% 85% Mobile 6.6% CAGR 2010 - 2014 MBB: 31% FBB: 11% * BB: Fixed BB + 3G+ suscribers) Source: Pyramid Data Forecast (Jan 2011) MWC, Barcelona 2011 10
  • 7. Customers Improved user interface devices and M2M new applications Apps Devices are boosting demand growth From Internet of People to Internet of Things MWC, Barcelona 2011 12
  • 8. Customers Massive smartphone uptake Apps Devices Worldwide Smartphone Installed Base* (Million) CAGR 2010-2014 Emerging Economies*: 32% Advanced Economies: 24% Source: Strategy Analytics Emerging markets: Latin America, Eastern Europe, MEA, and Asia Pacific (ex-Japan, South Korea and Australia) MWC, Barcelona 2011 14
  • 9. Customers Digitalization of the real economy broadens the scope of Apps Devices our market Customer expenditure breakdown 2009 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis - U.S. national income and product accounts (NIPAs) (Aug 2010) MWC, Barcelona 2011 16
  • 10. Telco players have a key role to play in the ICT ecosystem Telco as service platforms MWC, Barcelona 2011 18
  • 11. ICT sector challenges MWC, Barcelona 2011 20
  • 12. Customers This growth opportunity is supported by networks Apps Devices Customers Networks Apps & Devices Services MWC, Barcelona 2011 22
  • 13. Network Development of NGN and upgrade of existing ones is needed Apps Devices to allow the exponential broadband growth Technology evolution TODAY Broadband capacity /user FTTH NG-GPON FTTH GPON IMT VDSL Advanced ADSL2+ LTE ADSL HSxPA UMTS EDGE Price no longer a barrier for uptake of mobile data Time Heavy investments are needed - Who is going to invest? 24
  • 14. Mobile data growth increases the importance of the Fixed network For the evolution of mobile network… … Fixed network will be key BACKHAUL Every Mobile Base Station will have to LTE Nodes capacity be connected by Fiber Fixed Network New Wireless Access Technologies require bigger > x10 network capabilities POINTS OF PRESENCE Massive Points of Presence in buildings (home/enterprise) # Nodes (long term) New Wireless Network > x10 MULTIMODE Architecture need sites nearer to the customers Intensive Use of Technologies usually characterized as “fixed” ones: WiFi, all-IP, video… Growth of mobile traffic >> x10 INTERNATIONAL Strength of capacities in submarine cables and satellite MWC, Barcelona 2011 26
  • 15. Network Expected traffic increase will require incremental CapEx, Apps Devices both in Fixed and Mobile Networks A.T. Kearney EU 27 Capex required estimation Cumulated 2010 - 2014 Bn € CapEx Trendline Additional CapEx required at current level ~ 10 Fixed Internet Network ~26 + ~ 116 in FTTx accesses Mobile Networks (3G and LTE) ~ 65 ~ 21 Bn€ Source: Oppenheimer, A.T. Kearney analysis. FTTx investment assuming 50% household coverage by 2014 MWC, Barcelona 2011 28
  • 16. Telcos are the main contributors to investment and employment in our industry e European Market Latam Market ra tiv st Illu Investment Employment Investment Employment (CAPEX) (CAPEX) Telco 37 billion€1 2.0 million2 13 billion€ 0.7 million IT 3 billion€1 2.9 million3 0.4 billion€ 0.5 million Internet 0.03 billion€1 10,0005 0.01 billion€ >3,000 Content and service providers hardly contribute to network costs 1 The 2009 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard 2 European Business. Facts and figures. Edition 2009. Eurostat. EU-27 in 2005 5 Estimated Google’s employees in Europe from 20,222 worldwide (December 2008) 3 European Business. Facts and figures. Edition 2009. Eurostat. EU-27 in 2006 for Business services-Computer and related activities http://investor.google.com/releases/2008Q4_google_earnings.html 4 Digiworld-2009. IDATE 6 Online advertising – Western Europe – Strategy Analytics International Office 30 30
  • 17. Current regulation doesn’t guarantee necessary investments Telco operators Regulated Fragmented Not regulated Concentrated Communications, Apps. & Services Device suppliers Internet players MWC, Barcelona 2011 32
  • 18. Conclusions Our industry has very positive growth prospects, driven by mobile data New business models are needed to finance network investments that will make sustainable the whole internet ecosystem based on a virtuous circle of growth . Cooperation within the industry is essential to get the most of the digital world New engagement of telecom operators with content providers is needed to be able to deliver contents with new quality requirements Regulation should allow the recovery of network costs, promoting investment, traffic efficiency and fostering new services development MWC, Barcelona 2011 34