Lessons for 2010: Yields, Breakdown historical yields – compare indirect dividend yields from REITs with direct-yields from property funds. Market Backdrop, Discuss long-term trends, contrast recent recover with 2008 performance, total return composition and lessons learned. Position, Explore the prevailing opportunities in REITs and suggest best practices for investing REIT Funds in the future..
2. About REITs Real Estate Investment Trusts REITS About REITs: Over nearly half a century, the U.S. real estate investment trust (REIT) industry has become an important segment of the U.S. economy and investment markets. U.S. REITs have seen their equity market capitalization soar from $90 billion to more than $300 billion in just the past 10 years. In the process, that growth has set the stage for the adoption of the REIT approach to securitized real estate investment across the globe. Congress created REITs in the U.S. in 1960 as a way to make investment in large-scale, income-producing real estate accessible to all investors in the same way they typically invest otherwise – through the purchase and sale of liquid securities. In its early years, the industry was dominated by mortgage REITs, which provide debt financing for commercial or residential properties through their investments in mortgages and mortgage-backed securities. The market’s interest in equity REITs, which today usually both own and manage commercial properties, initially was limited because the ownership and management of assets were required to remain separate. That restriction changed with the passage of the Tax Reform Act of 1986, which permitted REITs to both own and manage their properties as vertically integrated companies and helped set the stage for a secular wave of equity REIT IPOs in the mid-1990s. Currently, more than 90 percent of the nearly 200 publicly traded U.S. REITs are equity REITs that own and most often manage commercial real estate and derive most of their revenue and income from rents. In aggregate, these companies own properties across all major property sectors and all major geographic regions. Quick Facts: May 2008 US REITs still dominate returns and constitute approx 50-60% of the world REIT market. However many of the fastest growing and best performing markets have been outside of the US warranting a global strategy. NYSE listed REITs equity market capitalization = $322 billion REITs own approximately $600 billion of commercial real estate assets, or 10 to 15 percent of total institutionally owned commercial real estate 149 REITs are in the FTSE NAREIT All REIT Index . 127 REITs are traded on the New York Stock Exchange The FTSE NAREIT All REIT Index dividend yield equals 5.2 percent, compared to the S&P 500 dividend yield of 2.1 percent. REITs paid out approximately $15.5 billion in dividends in 2006. As of the fourth quarter 2007, the coverage ratio of EBITDA divided by interest expense for all REITs is 3.3. The fixed charge ratio of EBITDA divided by interest expense plus preferred dividends is 2.9. Rising Average daily dollar trading volume, April 2008 = $3.2 billion April 2003 = $684 million April 1998 = $443 million Source: National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts
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4. Real Estate Funds – Answers Should REIT investors buy for Income or Total Return? REITS Property Property Manager Property Fund Level Yield Earnings Yield Property REIT Distribution Rental Income Earnings Share Price REIT Fund Variable Yield The payment of income in a REIT Fund is then more akin to an Equity Income Fund or conventional Property Share Fund such as the long-running Fund offered by Aberdeen. Whereas virtually all total return in property funds is income derived, in REIT’s it made up only 50%, on average. Property and Real Estate Funds (Regular Direct Income = Level Yield) Rental Income Operating Profit Total Return Capital Values Dividend Yield Profit Equity and REITs (Regular In-Direct Income = Variable Yield) It is common theme (such as in the UK) for tax structures to encourage REITs to pass all yields onto their investors – however those yields remain variable..
5. Historical Dividend Yields A Falling trend – cyclical behaviour REITS Source: National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts NAREIT (National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts) provides dividend history for REITs going back to 1972. In that span, the US economy has seen three notable recessions: 1974-1977, 1990 - 1991 and 2001-2002. In May 1974 REITs were yielding 19.11% and by January 1977 this had dropped to 7.64%. In October 1990, REITs yielded 12.83% and by October 1993 this had fallen by half to 6.83%. In January 2000, REITs were yielding 8.71% and by June 2002 only 6.50%. In February 2007 Yields were only 3.78% and climbed to 4.70% by August 2007. Following the sub-prime crisis yields again recovered to 5.57% by March 2008. The overall trend is one of falling yields during periods of rising liquidity and price appreciation. Yields currently trade well below the historical mean with increased potential of recovery. . Monthly Yield Avg. = 8.28% Low = 3.78% High = 19.11% (Spread = 15.33%) Monthly Average Trend Including 1974 Bull Rally Trend Excluding 1974 Bull Rally Note: Indicates monthly average Yield Periods of Falling Yields
7. A new Cyclicality of Return Total Return has soared as yields dipped REITS Source: National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts Since 1972 the size of the REIT market exploded from 2003 – 2007. The change in the market outlines a textbook total return strategy for investors (as opposed to income-only strategy). Supported? Can Total Returns continue to be supported when yields have fallen – are fundamentals suitably robust?
8. Price return Yields and Capital Growth are regularly converse REITS Source: National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts Like 1974 – REIT capital growth through 2005 and 2006 looked unsustainable based on earnings – movements look broadly correlated to inflation cycles. Capital returns have become increasingly important to the total return of REIT Funds but this trend may correct! Bubble? Liquidity and rising share prices brought rising correlation with mainstream equities. Prices declined as liquidity retracted from mortgage-contagion and falling markets Rebound? Yields are at historical lows – forced down by soaring prices – is a rebound around the corner? Yields Prices Total Return =
9. Components 1972 - 2007 REITS Source: National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts Income has always been a component of total return in REITs but that contribution has been steady since 1972. However as listed stocks – the overall total return can prove cyclical and correlated to equity markets; while REIT dividends remain less correlated to the earnings growth of conventional equities. We have seen the cyclical downturn in capital growth before; the recent downturn in income is less common. Soaring liquidity and trading volumes, over the last few years, had skewed returns through 2006-2007
10. Sector Backdrop – past external commentary REIT Yields heading into 2007 REITS www.marketthoughts.com www.marketthoughts.com, Feb 2007 “ yield on equity REITs is now trading at a negative spread vs. the yield of the 10-year treasuries – suggesting that most investors are now speculating on continued appreciation of REIT prices as opposed to seeking income. Interestingly, the last time REIT spreads were at current levels was in 1997 – when REIT prices made a secular peak. The REIT market as a whole would decline by more than 18% in 1998 and another 6.5% in 1999.” Henry To (CFA), February 2007 2007 Concern: Historically High Valuations; fall-off in yields. Speculation of a rebound?
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12. External Links What might your clients be talking about? REITS National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts www.reit.com NAREIT Chart Book (Jan 2008) http://www.reit.com/portals/0/files/nareit/htdocs/library/performance/CB0801.pdf Market Watch - ‘REIT shares fall on rising bond yields, bubble fears’ Aug 2008 http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2005w32/msg00006.htm Safe Haven - ‘REIT Yields: The Frightening Truth’, Feb 2007 http://www.safehaven.com/article-7017.htm Market Thoughts – ‘REIT Market Overheating?’ Feb 2007 http://www.marketthoughts.com/z20070201.html