Presentation at 11 February 2016 in Frankfurt

1. Dr JOHNNY RYAN

2. The cost of ad blocking
PageFair and Adobe 2015 Ad Blocking Report

3. 17% growth in the last year
18 million monthly active
users in Q2 2015
25% adblock penetration

4. 18 M
16 M
Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015
12 M

5. Linear. Not
exponential.

6. 48% growth in the last year
45 million monthly active
users in Q2 2015
15% adblock penetration

7. 45 M
20 M
Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015

8. NOT THE
“ADPOCALYPSE”

9. ADBLOCKING
IS LIKE
CLIMATE CHANGE

11. ADINDUSTRY
FOCUSES
ON SHORT TERM
WINS.

12. WILL YOUR NEXT
CAMPAIGN DO THIS?

13. The cost of ad blocking
PageFair and Adobe 2015 Ad Blocking Report
2013 2014 2015

14. 80%learn about ad blocking from
friends / web / social media

15. Who is blocking
ads?

16. 18-29 30-44 45-60 >60Age

19. 10%
Average for news:
(much higher for video)

20. Why people block
•Ads obscure content.
•Privacy.
•Bandwidth.
•Slow website load.
•Because they can.

21. EU:
IE
18%
GB
20% DK
23%
DE
25%
NL
14%
BE
12%
FR
10%
ES
16%
PT
21%
CH
11%
PL
35%
LT
19%
LV
15%
EE
25%
FI
19%
SE
25%
IT
13%
HR
19%
RO
18% BG
16%
SK
9%
CZ
11%
HU
23%
SI
20%
GR
38%AT
21%
10-38%

22. 10-38%US: 10-17%*

23. 200 M
100 M
mid 2009 mid 2011 mid 2013 mid 2015
50 M
Ad block users
source:
PageFair
eMarketer

24. $1.4B
$2B
$2.9B
$4.1B
$5.9B
200 M
100 M
mid 2009 mid 2011 mid 2013 mid 2015
50 M
Ad block users
Digital video ad spend
$7.7B
source:
PageFair
eMarketer

25. Mobile
a non-event
in the West (so far)

26. Asian
mobile browsers
with blocking on by default

27. UC Browser
Owned by Alibaba
ver 9.9.2 (Aug. 2014)
264 million
installs

28. Maxthon
ver 4.4.4.2000
(Feb. 2015)
UC Browser
Owned by Alibaba
ver 9.9.2 (Aug. 2014)
264 million
installs
120 million
installs

29. Asus
Dec. 2015
Samsung
Jan. 2016
estimate:
Tens of millions
(World’s largest device
manufacturer)
estimate:
23M new devices
in 2016

30. “Engrossing”
Cory Doctorow, BoingBoing
“Understanding the trends driving this revolution is
pivotal to success.Consider this book your road map”
Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce
“An immensely important book”
Kevin O'Sullivan, Editor of The Irish Times
“Enormously useful ...a great read”
Tim Wu, Columbia Law School
“The best western history of the Internet to date”
Library Journal
“Captures the sweep of the Internet’s development”
Jonathan Zittrain, Harvard Law School

31. THE BIG
PICTURE

32. The need to monetize has
led to unrestrained
advertising.
1

33. The need to monetize has
led to unrestrained
advertising.
Increase in ad volume and page clutter.
Increase in experience interruption.
Increase in data snooping.
2
1

34. The need to monetize has
led to unrestrained
advertising.
Increase in ad volume and page clutter.
Increase in experience interruption.
Increase in data snooping.
Decline in audience goodwill,
Decline in attention to ads,
Decline in trust.
2
1 3

35. The need to monetize has
led to unrestrained
advertising.
Increase in ad volume and page clutter.
Increase in experience interruption.
Increase in data snooping.
Decline in audience goodwill,
Decline in attention to ads,
Decline in trust.
Advertising blocking by users
2
1 3
4

36. FIRST 20
YEARS OF ADS
ON THE WEB
= A DISASTER

37. DATA, DONE
WRONG, IS A TRAP
@johnnyryan

38. @johnnyryan

39. @johnnyryan

40. @johnnyryan

41. Latanya Sweeney
Professor of Government
and Technology at the
Harvard University School
of Government
@johnnyryan

42. @johnnyryan

43. TRACKING
@johnnyryan
ABOVE THE LINE
BELOW THE LINE

44. Strategy

47. Ask nicely
<1% conversion rate
3 strategies that failed:

48. Ask firmly
This only work for publishers of exclusive
long-form content (e.g. TV series)
Ask nicely
<1% conversion rate
3 strategies that failed:

49. Ask firmly
This only work for publishers of exclusive
long-form content (e.g. TV series)
Ask nicely
<1% conversion rate
Trench warfare/cat & mouse
Ad blockers retaliate and block all
javascript on site
3 strategies that failed:

52. i. Avoid trench warfare, ii. put back ads,
but iii. make sure people do not rebel
against those ads.

53. We need to end the cycle
We can serve ads to them,
but... what should we serve?
We do not want to put back
the ads they have already rebelled against
i. Avoid trench warfare, ii. put back ads,
but iii. make sure people do not rebel
against those ads.

54. 0%
30%
60%
Popover Video non-
skippable
mid-roll
Display with
audio
Video non-
skippable
pre-roll
Interstitial Animated
display
Video
skippable
mid-roll
Video
skippable
pre-roll
Still image Text display
61%
67% 67%

55. Principles needed
For the next 20 years of the Web

56. ADVERTISING 2.0

57. END TO TRACKING,
CUT OUT / MINIMISE AD TECH,
RESPECT USERS,
DRIVE UP VALUES

59. Summary

60. 1. Publishers - not advertisers - feel
the most pain
Summary

61. 1. Publishers - not advertisers - feel
the most pain
2. We can put a form of ads back
Summary

62. 1. Publishers - not advertisers - feel
the most pain
2. We can put a form of ads back
3. ...but publishers, Web trustees,
and consumers must decide what
form these ads take
Summary

63. johnny@pagefair.com
@johnnyryan @pagefair